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THE FUTURE OF E-COMMERCE

Startups, new technologies, and corporate innovators shaping next


generation trends in e-commerce
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See what other customers have to say at http://www.cbinsights.com/customer-love www.cbinsights.com 5


ABOUT THE PRESENTER
Natan Reddy
Tech industry analyst at CB Insights
Natan graduated from the University of California, Berkeley with a
major in economics and a focus in French. He previously worked as
a business valuation senior associate at Andersen Tax in San
Francisco, where he valued dozens of startups and public
companies. He currently covers the e-commerce, on demand, and
@natan_reddy
food delivery sectors. His research has been cited in Forbes, the Los
Angeles Times, and more.

nreddy@cbinsights.com

www.cbinsights.com 6
TABLE OF CONTENTS
8 Macro trends

15 Investment overview

21 Emerging trends in e-commerce


• A renewal of social commerce
• Transformation of consumer goods: direct-to-consumer
• A bet on discounting: direct-from-manufacturer model
• Big ticket: rise of expensive purchases online
• Frontier tech: AI, VR, and AR

61 Corporate cash: where corporate players are investing

66 Looking forward: the future is predictive and personalized

www.cbinsights.com 7
Macro trends
While e-commerce adoption expands, not all players are lifted with the rising tide

www.cbinsights.com 8
E-COMMERCE USAGE ACCELERATES E-COMMERCE
CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN TRACTION

Although e-commerce is
hardly a new phenomenon,
package and parcel
volume accelerated year-
over-year from 2010 to
2016.

As demand has increased,


the e-commerce space has
become increasingly
crowded and competitive.

Source: Internet Trends 2017 - KPCB www.cbinsights.com 9


CORPORATES SEE E-COMMERCE GROWTH
Large corporates in commerce expanding online have further increased crowding and competition within
the space.

% of U.S. e-commerce sales on Amazon-owned sites Walmart global e-commerce sales year-over-year growth

$1.78B $4.65B $5B

Source: Digital Commerce 360 , Business Insider

www.cbinsights.com 10
MANY E-COMMERCE STARTUPS HAVE FAILED
ONE KINGS LANE SOLD FOR LESS THAN $30
MILLION AFTER BEING VALUED AT $900 MILLION

August 23, 2016

Sources: recode, Business Insider, TechCrunch, Forbes, WSJ www.cbinsights.com 11


CORPORATE COMPETITION MOVES ABROAD

$1.78B $4.65B $5B

Total Funding Total Funding Committed and Pledged


Investment into India

Source: Reuters www.cbinsights.com 12


ALIBABA’S GLOBAL REACH BEYOND CHINA ALIBABA EXPANDS ITS
PRESENCE ABROAD

Alibaba Geographic Heatmap of Investments Beyond China, Alibaba has


invested in and acquired a
Singapore
number of companies
across Asia, Europe, and
the United States.
Japan South Korea
As Alibaba’s influence
spreads abroad, it creates
a formidable presence in
Ireland Israel
the e-commerce space.

India United States

Australia Switzerland

www.cbinsights.com 13
COMPETITION LEADING TO CONSOLIDATION

“The conclusion was, [the Indian e-


commerce market] was going to have
to consolidate, that fewer parties were
probably a good thing for the market.
. . . there weren’t going to be 10
winners, but maybe only one or two.”
Devin Wenig
Chief Executive Officer, eBay

Source: recode www.cbinsights.com 14


Investment overview
Funding trends, category breakdown, and more.

www.cbinsights.com 15
E-COMMERCE DEALS
E-COMMERCE ANNUAL GLOBAL FINANCING HISTORY
2013 - 2017 YTD (6/6/17) BOUNCE BACK FOR
FIRST TIME SINCE 2015
941
822
(Full-Year Run Rate)
After declining in 2016,
776
797 deals and dollars to e-
749
commerce startups are
on track for a comeback
$15,351
in 2017.
(Full-Year Run Rate)

The three largest deals


this year have taken
356
place in Asia: $1.4B
Series J to India-based
Flipkart; $1.1B private
equity round to China-
based Koubei; and a
$5,374 $12,071 $16,485 $9,443 $6,645 $500M private equity
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD round to China-based
Disclosed Funding ($M) Deals Uxin Pai.
www.cbinsights.com 16
E-COMMERCE QUARTERLY GLOBAL FINANCING HISTORY 2017 STARTS OFF
Q1’13 – Q1’17 264 STRONG

231 235 237 In Q1’17, e-commerce


221 221 startups raised $4.8B
211 207
193
202 across 191 deals,
186 187 191
176 182
175
marking a 41% increase
in deals from the
135 previous quarter, and
showing a reignition of
investor interest.

Q1’17 had most dollar


funding of any quarter
since the beginning of
2013. However, this was
$3,151
$1,488

$1,517

$1,778
$1,429

$2,573

$4,785
$4,570

$3,363

$4,084

$4,586

$4,452

$2,907

$1,881

$2,356

$2,299
$940

primarily due to mega-


2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 rounds to Flipkart and
Disclosed Funding ($M) Deals Koubei.

www.cbinsights.com 17
MATURING INDUSTRY: E-COMMERCE GLOBAL DEAL SHARE SEED / ANGEL DEALS
2013 – 2017 YTD (6/6/17) DECLINE EVERY YEAR
SINCE 2013
13% 13% 17% 19%
24% As the e-commerce
4% 4%
5%
1% 3% 4% space has matured, seed
6% 3% 6%
9% 5% 2% 7% / angel deals have
11% 5%
9% 9% 4%
2% declined.
15%
17% 11%
18% 18% Series E+ deals have
13% increased over the last
few years. In 2017, deals
54%
in this category have
47% 43% included investments
42% 38%
into startups such as
Wish, BigCommerce,
Vestiaire Collective, and
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD
Flipkart.
Seed/Angel Series A Series B Series C Series D Series E+ Other

www.cbinsights.com 18
E-COMMERCE GLOBAL DEAL SHARE BY COUNTRY INTERNATIONAL
2013 – 2017 YTD (6/6/17) STARTUPS TAKE
MAJORITY OF DEALS

The US was home to only


43% of deals since 2013.
28%
United States
India and China followed
with 13% and 7%,
India 43%
respectively.
China
United Kingdom While the UK and
Germany 5% Germany tied for fourth
Other 5% place, more than a
quarter of deals (28%)
7% went to other countries
13% not mentioned, including
France and Indonesia.

www.cbinsights.com 19
STARTUPS SEEK INNOVATION TO STAY AHEAD

“The rising cost of customer


acquisition and pressure to discount
prices from ‘everything marketplaces’
such as Amazon and Alibaba means
that ecommerce companies are
looking for new sustainable ways to
differentiate themselves.”
Tjeerd Brenninkmeijer
Executive Vice President, BloomReach

Source: CMS Wire www.cbinsights.com 20


What are the emerging trends in e-commerce ?

www.cbinsights.com 21
A RENEWAL OF SOCIAL COMMERCE: bringing the
experience of shopping with friends online
Has a new Chinese startup cracked the code to social commerce success?

www.cbinsights.com 22
SOCIAL COMMERCE CHATTER HAS DIED DOWN “SOCIAL COMMERCE”
2012 – 2017 YTD (6/8/17) MEDIA MENTIONS
RAPIDLY DECLINED
AFTER 2012
The idea of “social
commerce” has been
around for years,
promoted by social
networks like Facebook,
Twitter, and Pinterest
with lack luster success.

Despite past failures, is


this sector of e-
commerce ready for
renewed success?

www.cbinsights.com 23
SIMPLE BUY BUTTONS ARE OUT

Source: SUMOHeavy www.cbinsights.com 24


INTERACTIVE GROUP SHOPPING IS IN CHINA-BASED SOCIAL
COMMERCE STARTUP
PINDUODUO PINDUODUO FINDS
TRACTION
Pinduoduo has been one
of the first social
commerce startups to
gain a significant
following through
integrating social and
gamified features into an
e-commerce platform.

The company raised


$110M in a Series B
round last year, pushing
its value to $1.5B.

www.cbinsights.com 25
WHAT SETS PINDUODUO APART?
Amount of goods per month sold on platform (gross
merchandise value)
100M yuan
4B yuan
Early 2016 Spring 2017

1) 4B
e-commerce platform first, social components second

yuan
2) incentives for buying with friends / gamified buying features

an 3)
100Myu integration with highly-used social messaging app WeChat

www.cbinsights.com 26
SECOND WAVE OF SOCIAL COMMERCE STARTUPS
In a shift away from simple “buy-buttons” on social media sites, certain startups have emerged which integrate social elements
into e-commerce-focused platforms.
Mosaic

900

800

760

www.cbinsights.com 27
ALIBABA APPLIES FOR GROUP CHAT PATENT

“Some e-commerce
websites allow one-to-one
interaction between a
buyer and a seller, but the
e-commerce websites are
typically not able to satisfy
the demand for interaction
Patent: Group messaging for facilitating interactions among multiple buyers
between users with respect to the same
product.”
Date Applied: February 5, 2016

Source: patent www.cbinsights.com 28


BRINGING THE FEELING OF COMMUNITY ONLINE

“If you look at China, even e-


commerce platform Taobao is
leading the way by bringing in social
elements where users watch videos,
share experiences and join groups on
their platform.”

Hans-Peter Ressel
Chief Executive Officer, Lazada Malaysia

Source: Digital News Asia www.cbinsights.com 29


THE TRANSFORMATION OF CONSUMER GOODS:
moving to D2C
As consumer goods and e-commerce startups are pressured by large corporations and
private labels, many have to come up with direct-to-consumer models in order to stay
relevant

www.cbinsights.com 30
AMAZON COMPETING AGAINST CONSUMER GOODS AMAZON BEGINS
LEADING WITH
PRIVATE LABELS

While many consumer


goods companies remain
dependent on Amazon,
they are also competing
against Amazon’s private
labels.

Amazon is currently
pressuring many
consumer goods
companies to redesign
their products and
packaging for online
Amazon beginning to lead in private labels such
batteries and baby wipes.
sales, instead of in-store
sales.

Source: Internet Trends 2017 - KPCB www.cbinsights.com 31


WHILE SOME COMPANIES MODIFY PRODUCTS
FOR ONLINE MARKETPLACES . . .

. . . OTHERS ARE GOING D2C


www.cbinsights.com 32
CONSUMER GOODS MOVE INTO D2C

Lola delivers feminine hygiene


products on a subscription Soylent provides meal Hubble Contacts provides its
basis. The startup uses only replacement products to own brand of disposable
organic products and deliveries individuals looking to save the contacts on a subscription
can be customized to fit a time and money necessary to basis.
customer’s preference. eat regular meals.

Disclosed Funding: $11.2M Disclosed Funding: $71.5M Disclosed Funding: $23.7M

Select Investor: Spark Capital Select Investor: Andreessen Horowitz Select Investor: Founders Fund
www.cbinsights.com 33
HARRY’S D2C RAZORS GOES VERTICAL AND BUYS FACTORY HARRY’S BUYS
MANUFACTURING
PLANT IN GERMANY

In a newsworthy move,
Harry’s bought its own
manufacturing plant in
Germany.

Vertical integration
allows the startup to
have more control over
pricing and margins.

Does this set a precedent


as a strong way for
consumer goods to
succeed?

www.cbinsights.com 34
A BET ON DISCOUNTING: the direct-from-manufacturer model
As discount e-commerce startups Wish and Hollar emerge, a new direct-from-manufacturer
model emerges to the forefront for inexpensive goods

www.cbinsights.com 35
THE DIRECT-FROM-MANUFACTURER MODEL
E-Commerce platforms like Wish and Hollar that sell mostly low-ticket items
directly from manufacturers, at a highly reduced price have gained steam

www.cbinsights.com 36
DISCOUNT KINGS MAKING HEADLINES
HERE’S WHY E-COMMERCE APP WISH
RAISED $1 BILLION IN TWO YEARS
December 6, 2016

Sources: recode, Forbes, Fast Company, Entrepreneur www.cbinsights.com 37


WISH AND HOLLAR GAIN MOMENTUM
Valuation: $3B
Valuation: $400M

Valuation: $17.8M Valuation: $47.9M Valuation: $98.4M

www.cbinsights.com 38
INVESTORS BET ON DISCOUNT PLATFORMS SMART MONEY
INVESTS IN WISH AND
HOLLAR

Top investors have


caught onto the discount
/ direct-from-
manufacturer model.

Hollar has attracted


several smart money
investors including KPCB,
Lightspeed Venture
Partners, and Index
Ventures.

Smart money investor


Founders Fund has
invested in Wish.

Each green line indicates one investment deal. Smart money investors are highlighted in yellow. www.cbinsights.com 39
CAN CONSUMER GOODS DO THE SAME?
Startup Beauty Pie is selling luxury makeup directly from manufacturers at a highly discounted price.

www.cbinsights.com 40
SOURCING DIRECTLY DROPS PRICE

“To expect a woman to pay


anywhere between 10 and 30
times more than a product
actually costs to make . . . is just
archaic to me”

Marcia Kilgore
Founder, Beauty Pie

Source: Financial Times www.cbinsights.com 41


BIG TICKET: rise of expensive purchases online
Startups focusing on the sale of used cars, furniture, and even jewelry have become notable

www.cbinsights.com 42
ONLINE USED CAR SALES PROLIFERATE USED CAR BUYING
EXPANDS

As the concept of online


used car buying
proliferates, it has also
expanded into many
business models.

Some online used car


buying platforms operate
on a B2C basis, while
others are B2B or P2P.

Source: 2017 Manheim Used Car Market Report www.cbinsights.com 43


STARTUPS
CAPITALIZING WITH
NEW RETAIL AUTO
MODELS
Startups like Vroom and
Shift are attempting to
cut out middlemen in the
used car space.

These startups have


capitalized on consumer
dissatisfaction and
mistrust in the old
dealership marketplace
by creating a consumer-
friendly and convenient
business model.

www.cbinsights.com 44
CHINESE INVESTORS POUR IN CASH TO ONLINE USED CAR STARTUPS
Bubble sizes represent total funding raised

$960M $650M $255M $250M

Uxin Pai Guazi Souche RenRenChe


B2B and B2C platform P2P platform P2P platform P2P platform
Bubbles represent total funding raised. www.cbinsights.com 45
ON VROOM’S CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE . . .

“ . . .[we] simplify the buying


process so they can pull the
trigger without haggling and
paperwork. The car is delivered
to your front door.”
Paul Hennessey
Chief Executive Officer, Vroom

Source: TechCrunch www.cbinsights.com 46


WHO ELSE IS SELLING CONSUMER DURABLES ONLINE?
While mattress startups are well-known, other companies are offering furniture, jewelry, and
even high-end luggage.

www.cbinsights.com 47
ON THE MOTIVATION TO CREATE MAIDEN HOME

“[Big box retailer] designs were


generic–it seemed like
everyone had the same sofa! . .
Our business is entirely
customer made to order . . .”
Nidhi Kapur
Founder, Maiden Home

Source: Forbes www.cbinsights.com 48


FRONTIER TECH: the cutting edge of AI, VR, and AR
AI, VR, and AR are already being adopted by many e-commerce players — how will it evolve
going forward?

www.cbinsights.com 49
MEDIA DISCUSSION OF AI AND E-COMMERCE AI E-COMMERCE BUZZ
2012 – 2017 YTD (6/13/17) CONTINUES UPWARD

As artificial intelligence
and machine learning
advance in capabilities,
companies are looking
for ways to harness such
technology other than
through reactive
chatbots.

Some of these new uses


include visual search
recognition, natural
language processing,
and 3D body imaging.

www.cbinsights.com 50
BEYOND CHATBOTS: AI IN COMMERCE MARKET MAP 40+ COMPANIES USING
AI IN COMMERCE

Startups are using


artificial intelligence and
machine learning in a
variety of ways to aid in
e-commerce, from sizing
& styling to real-time
product targeting to
natural language speech,
and more.

www.cbinsights.com 51
BEYOND CHATBOTS: AI IN COMMERCE MARKET MAP HOT AI USE-CASES
THAT GO BEYOND
CHATBOTS
Newer use-cases for AI
include natural language
search, visual search,
and sizing & styling.

Recent deals include a


$15M Series B to natural
language processing
startup Twiggle, a $2M
angel investment to deep
learning sizing and fitting
company Invertex, and a
$2M seed round to visual
search startup GrokStyle.

www.cbinsights.com 52
MORE RELEVANT SEARCHES

Description: Twiggle employs machine leaning and natural


language processing in order present more relevant results
to shoppers.

Select Investors: Alibaba Group, Naspers

www.cbinsights.com 53
FORGET STYLISTS AND TAILORS

FINDMINE uses AI to scale the Invertex uses 3D scanning Bold Metrics (fka Fashion
task of completing looks and technology and AI capabilities to Metric) uses machine learning
outfits for customers across a help shoppers find the correct to predict custom clothing
company’s entire product sizing and fit for different measurements for online
offering. clothing products, like shoes. customers.

Disclosed Funding: $1.76M Disclosed Funding: $2M Disclosed Funding: $120K

Select Investor: XRC Labs Select Investor: Permoda Select Investor: Techstars
www.cbinsights.com 54
VISUAL SEARCH ON THE RISE

www.cbinsights.com 55
MEDIA DISCUSSION OF VR AND AR WITH E-COMMERCE VR AND AR BUZZ HITS
2012 – 2017 YTD (6/12/17) THE E-COMMERCE
SECTOR
As virtual reality and
augmented reality
advance into numerous
fields, the technology has
found its way into the e-
commerce sector.

Startups are integrating


VR and AR technology in
product demos from
auto to fashion to beauty,
and more.

www.cbinsights.com 56
VR AND AR HIT THE E-COMMERCE HEADLINES
VIRTUAL REALITY LETS CHINESE CUSTOMERS SHOP MACY’S
NEW YORK STORE ON THE WORLD’S BIGGEST SHOPPING
DAY
November 11, 2016

Sources: Quartz, Entrepreneur, Forbes, Drug Store News www.cbinsights.com 57


BIG TICKET E-
COMMERCE COMBINES
WITH VR / AR

Used car startup Vroom is


using VR technology to
test out a new type of
virtual auto showroom.

Modsy, a startup focused


on 3D visualization, uses
AR technology to help
users visualize design and
furniture placement ideas
in the context of their own
homes.

www.cbinsights.com 58
AUGMENTED REALITY
MOVES INTO LIFESTYLE
E-COMMERCE

Apollo Box, a startup


focused on selling
eclectic lifestyle products
to customers online, has
used AR technology to
help customer interact
with products in 3D.

The startup now offers


the technology to other
brands that sell on its
site.

www.cbinsights.com 59
AR BEAUTY STARTUPS
PARTNER WITH
CORPORATES

Augmented reality
beauty startups
Modiface and Perfect
Corp (which operates
YouCam) have partnered
with large corporates
including Sephora, Estée
Lauder, and L'Oréal.

www.cbinsights.com 60
CORPORATE CASH: where the big players are
investing
In an effort to stay on top, large corporates such as Amazon, Walmart, and Target are
investing in certain e-commerce startups

www.cbinsights.com 61
CORPORATE AND CVC
E-COMMERCE CORPORATE AND CVC ANNUAL GLOBAL
DEALS AND DOLLARS
FINANCING HISTORY 156 ALSO PICK UP THE
2013 - 2017 YTD (6/16/17) 156 (Full-Year Run Rate)
PACE IN 2017
136
Corporate and CVC
118 119 funding trends roughly
follow the same trend as
$5,834 overall funding to the
(Full-Year Run Rate)
category.
72
A mega-round to Flipkart,
which included corporate
investors such as eBay
and Microsoft, accounts
for much of the dramatic
funding spike.
$2,118 $4,120 $5,115 $3,391 $2,685

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD


Disclosed Funding ($M) Deals

www.cbinsights.com 62
E-COMMERCE ANNUAL GLOBAL EXITS ACTIVITY 2017 SEES UPTICK IN
2013 – 2017 YTD (6/8/17) RATE OF EXITS AS
CONSOLIDATION
INCREASES
After a decline in 2016,
10
2017 has witnessed a
new flock of recent exits,
8
including the IPO of
1
Carvana.

Nevertheless, the total


7
190 5 number of exits for 2017
154
142 is not expected to
surpass 2015 totals.
88 78 Additionally, not all exits
represent ideal outcomes
for startups (i.e.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 YTD
Souq.com’s down exit)
M&A IPO

www.cbinsights.com 63
SELECT CORPORATE INVESTMENT IN E-COMMERCE E-COMMERCE AND
May 2015 – May 2017 RETAIL GIANTS MAKE
THEIR BETS

Large corporate players


like Amazon, Unilever,
Target
Accelerator Alibaba Group have
Program
made investments and
acquisitions across a
variety of different e-
commerce startups
including large private
international players, as
well as direct-to-
consumer and
subscription-based
companies.

Green lines represent a single funding round and orange lines represent acquisitions www.cbinsights.com 64
CORPORATE INVESTMENTS: A CLOSER LOOK
D2C / SUBSCRIPTION
Acquisition

D2C / CONSUMER DURABLE


Investment

DISCOUNT
Acquisition

SOCIAL
Investment

www.cbinsights.com 65
LOOKING BEYOND: the future is predictive and
personalized
Corporates are exploring ideas and technology that focus on Internet of Things auto-
replenishment, visual data analysis, and on-demand manufacturing

www.cbinsights.com 66
WALMART APPLIES FOR AUTO-REPLENISHMENT
IOT PATENT

Patent: Retail subscription in internet of


things environment
Holder: Walmart
Date of Application: October 19, 2016

Source: patent www.cbinsights.com 67


THE GROWTH OF THE INTERNET OF EYES
With the advent of technologies such as Amazon Echo Look or Google Lens, there will be more
visual data about our fashion sense, where we go, and what we look like, than ever before.

www.cbinsights.com 68
AMAZON PATENTS ON DEMAND PRODUCTION

Patent: Fulfillment of orders for items using 3d Patent: On demand apparel manufacturing
manufacturing on demand
Holder: Amazon
Holder: Amazon
Date Granted: April 17, 2017
Date Granted: June 5, 2017
Source: patent, patent www.cbinsights.com 69
CBINSIGHTS.COM
@cbinsights
nreddy@cbinsights.com

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