P3

Analysis and prediction of

artifacts in the domain of
computers.
Karan Thakur
14050221076
Abstract
This project is a study of the history, analysis and prediction of
future computers. Starting from Z1 to present day computers. I
conducted secondary research to understand the human needs,
knowledge and environment conditions. Using the analysis of
patterns and gaining insight, i was able to create a framework to
predict future computer trend.

Analysis and Insight

I made and observation that over large period of time there was a
slow development in the general population. It was mapped to the
needs of general population over time. I referred to Maslow's need
hierarchy and it matched.
I came to a rough estimate of the current position of our global
population on maslow'd need hierarchy.
WE ARE PRESENT SOMEWHERE AROUND THE ESTEEM,
CONGNITIVE AND AESTHETIC NEED IN THIS PYRAMID
Insight

Based on analyzing the patterns in the field of computers I'm able

to gain an insight that every time there is a development in
computer it is either becoming precise, efficient or convenient to
use. It can be a combination of these developments too. These
changes happen in short time frame.
(Performance, Efficiency and Convenience).
Combining the timeline with Maslow'd hierarchy and short time
frame wants of performance. efficiency and convenience. I made a
framework or a cycle to predict future computers.
 Frame work and model development.
To predict future computer based on certain knowledge and
needs, I made a frame work.

Discovery Artifact
(Environment)

Knowledge

Needs / Wants

Exploration / Expermentation

I started from the choosen environment. This environment, gave me

certain knowledge about itself. This knowledge along with
immediate wants and the underlying needs drives exploration. After
exploration, a new artifact samples in the environment or there's a
discovery.
 Timeline

Date Event

The First Computer

1936 
The first freely programmable computer
came into play.

The transistor
1947 
The transistor was invented by Bell
Telephone Company. It wasn't a
computer in itself'but it was a vital
computer component.
 IBM
1953 
International Business Machines came
out with their first computer machine.

Bank computers
1955
The first bank computers were invented.
They used MICR'or magnetic ink
character recognition'to read checks.

The computer chip

1958
Jack Kilby and Robert Noyce invented
the integrated circuit'better known as
the computer chip.
 Video games
1962 
Spacewar games invented the first
computer video games.

The mouse is invented

1963
Douglas Engelbart invented the
computer mouse. He called it the mouse
because the cord came out the back like
a tail.

The internet
1969
The first internet was called ARPANET.
The original internet wasn't used very
widely because not many people had
access to it.
 The first personal computers
1974-1977
IBM and Apple were just a couple of the
brands that put out the first personal
computers.

 Microsoft is born
1975
Bill Gates worked with Paul Allen to
develop BASIC for the Altair 8800.

Microsoft expands
1989
Microsoft made a program that was
compatible with IBM computers. This let
more people come into contact with the
now well-known program.
 Microsoft expands
1991
Microsoft made a program that was
compatible with IBM computers. This let
more people come into contact with the
now well-known program.

 The laptop comes into play

1991
The first laptop computer'the Power Book
100'came out. There were other portable
computers before this'but they were very
clunky and expensive.

 World Wide Convention

1996
the first internet convention was held.
 Mini computers
1996
Nokia introduced a phone that had
internet capabilities. This started a
revolution of devices that were
small'portable computers.

Microsoft invests $150 million in Apple,

1997 which was struggling at the time, ending
Apple's court case against Microsoft in
which it alleged that Microsoft copied
the "look and feel" of its operating
system.

The term Wi-Fi becomes part of the

1999 computing language and users begin
connecting to the Internet without wires.
 Apple unveils the Mac OS X operating
2001 system, which provides protected
memory architecture and pre-emptive
multi-tasking, among other benefits. Not
to be outdone, Microsoft rolls out
Windows XP, which has a significantly
redesigned GUI.

The first 64-bit processor, AMD's Athlon

2003 64, becomes available to the consumer
market.

Mozilla's Firefox 1.0 challenges

2004 Microsoft's Internet Explorer, the
dominant Web browser. Facebook, a
social networking site, launches.
 YouTube, a video sharing service, is
2005 founded. Google acquires Android, a
Linux-based mobile phone operating
system.

 Apple introduces the MacBook Pro, its

2006 first Intel-based, dual-core mobile
computer, as well as an Intel-based
iMac. Nintendo's Wii game console hits
the market.

The iPhone brings many computer

2007 functions to the smartphone.
 Microsoft launches Windows 7, which
2009 offers the ability to pin applications to
the taskbar and advances in touch and
handwriting recognition, among other
features.

Apple unveils the iPad, changing the way

2010 consumers view media and jumpstarting
the dormant tablet computer segment.

 Google releases the Chromebook, a

2011 laptop that runs the Google Chrome OS
 Facebook gains 1 billion users on
2012 October 4.

 Apple releases the Apple Watch.

2015 Microsoft releases Windows 10

The first reprogrammable quantum

2016 computer was created. "Until now, there
hasn't been any quantum-computing
platform that had the capability to
program new algorithms into their
system.

The Defense Advanced Research Projects

2017 Agency (DARPA) is developing a new
"Molecular Informatics" program that
uses molecules as computers.
"Chemistry offers a rich set of
properties that we may be able to
harness for rapid, scalable information
storage and processing
 Prediction of future Computer Technology

AI personal assistant Efficiency / Accessibility /

Usability

Hologram display Better understanding

(Video calls)

Direct VR accessibility Immersive

Nanochips / Pocket / Compact / Efficient

Portable computers

Neuron implant Accesibility/ Compact /

Usable

Human level Fast accessibility

Intelligience
These are some ways computers will change our
lives in future
Change the way we work.
Help us solve global challenges.
Smarter education.
More entrepreneurs
Digitalisation of everything
More benefits for more people
Machines teaching themselves.
Conclusion

The method and process i followed came up after a lot of

brainstorming. This prediction framework may not be
accurate or efficient to use, but nevertheless gave me
some outputs.