Disasters and 

Future projections show The necessary elements of disaster risk management are
KEY MESSAGE
that climate related disaster development levels, political conditions and risk governance
Fragile and conflict
vulnerability will be felt
1 2 3 4
affected states
experience shocks and most in fragile and conflict

conflict
stresses related to natural
hazards simultaneously affected states
to the challenges of The latest IPCC report tells us that:
conflict and fragility. Much high levels high levels medium levels fragile states and
of human of human of development low levels of human
can be done to reduce, development, development, and stability: development:
manage and prepare political stability medium stability: A third of countres Two-thirds of countries from
for natural disasters and democracy: A third of these (31.7%) from Africa and Africa, including Sudan,
includes New Zealand, countries are Latin nearly a quarter from Asia Togo, Burundi, Uganda, Côte
in more appropriate – the Netherlands, Australia, American/Caribbean (22%), including Morocco, d’Ivoire, Cameroon, Comoros,
or in some cases more Finland, Norway, Japan, (30.9%), including Kenya, Senegal, Bolivia, Democratic Republic of
interconnected – ways. Our future will almost certainly Slovenia, Sweden, the Argentina, Mexico, Honduras, Vietnam, Congo (DRC), Central African
The successor to the feature an increase in climate- UK, Denmark, Canada, Colombia, Panama, Cuba, India, Bhutan and the Republic, Afghanistan,
HFA must do more to Iceland, Hungary, Korea, Peru, Brazil and China. Philippines. Myanmar, Chad, Zimbabwe
related disasters. Germany and the US. and Guinea-Bissau.
Many disasters occur in Location of people affected by natural support effective disaster
disasters risk reduction in these
fragile states and conflict complex contexts by being
The top twenty ranked countries most at risk of combined
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

affected, accounting for a explicit about the need

to support governance
high proportion of disaster- strengthening as a
high levels of fragility, disaster, poverty and climate change
affected populations starting point to building
Countries experiencing violent
vulnerability, combined
disaster resilience.
each year. conflict or difficulties in
%

governance are least likely to be

50%
able to support communities to
Recorded data shows that deal with vulnerability to climate
impacts, or be able to adapt to
From 2005–2009, more than 50% of between 1999 and 2004 climate change.

140
people impacted by natural hazard
related disasters lived in fragile and
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
conflict affected states.

rwanda
burma/myanmar
burkino faso
timor-leste
sierra leone
liberia
bangladesh
central african republic
ethiopia
zimbabwe
haiti
guinea
congo democratic republic
sudan
chad
burundi
guinea-bissau
niger

afghanistan

somalia
80%
Non-conflict affected (excl. China)
Conflict affected disasters associated with natural hazards
were in contexts affected by complex
In some years the figure is more political emergencies. But the gaps in
evidence are immense- true numbers are Poorly designed risk reduction,
than 80%. adaptation and mitigation
likely to be much higher.
strategies can increase the risk
of conflict.
Disasters in challenging contexts account for some of the largest on record

RECOMMENDATIONS
 he successor to the HFA should explicitly recognise
T The successor should include action and indicators on:
the need and value of building disaster risk
Complexity of risk
management institutions as a means to support To include the relationship between natural hazards, climate change,
governance strengthening. conflict and fragility in risk and vulnerability assessments.
• For contexts where formal Government structures are in place,
Dual benfits
disaster management should be seen as a means through which
Seek opportunities for co-benefits for peacebuilding and state
to strengthen policy formulation processes, national fiscal and
building as well as development progress. And as a bare minimum,
budgetary arrangements, and institution building.
adopt climate and conflict-sensitive approaches to disaster
risk management.
• For vulnerable populations living in areas where the state and/or
governance structures are lacking, or where those in power are party
haiti chad pakistan pakistan myanmar Inclusive governance
to a conflict, international support should be provided to enhance
earthquake 2010 drought 2009 flooding 2005 earthquake 2005 cyclone 2008 Adopt inclusive decision making processes, with appropriate
disaster management through local action, governance arrangements
Killed 222,570 Affected 2,400,000 Affected 7,000,450 Killed 73,338 Killed 138,366 mechanisms in participation, accountability and transparency.
at the sub-national level and through informal institutions.
Affected 3,700,000 Affected 5,128,000 Affected 2,240,000
drought 2012 flooding 2010
Affected 1,600,000 Affected 20,359,496
Contact Katie Peters at ODI for further information, including the background evidence for this set of graphics. k.peters@odi.org