1

Measuring Severity of the Northern California Wildfires with Remote Sensing

Shannon Cavanaugh, Kevin Matthew Duyst, Austin Gates,

Mikayla Hart, Jaclyn Villars Klaus, and Madeline Jordan

University of California Los Angeles, Department of Geography

Abstract. In the past, remote sensing and GIS have been used to analyze active
wildfires, assess pre-fire risk, and map post-fire burn area. This paper will attempt
to examine the 2017 Tubbs wildfire that devastated Sonoma County, California in
October 2017. Using common remote sensing platforms, we attempted to measure
active and burnt area extent with thermal imagery, compare NDVI with fire
activity, and illustrate post-fire social and structural implications. We found
thermal imagery to be helpful in georeferencing critical hot spots of active fires
and NDVI to have correlation with fire risk. We will present our findings, discuss
key limitations, and offer recommendations for future uses.
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Introduction

California is currently facing one of its largest and most destructive fire seasons to date. After

large amounts of rainfall in 2016 followed by a hot and dry summer, an article published in the

New York Times noted that California’s blooming vegetation was left to dry out, essentially

5 becoming fuel (Turkewitz, 2017). In addition to the dry vegetation, it is common for wind

systems such as the Diablo or the Santa Ana winds to circulate through Northern and Southern

California. The Diablo winds in the Bay Area bring hot and dry winds blowing offshore due to

high pressure over the land and low pressure over the ocean. The Santa Ana’s in Southern

California bring similar hot and dry winds that come from high pressures inland. These wind

10 circulations are typically seen in the months of September through December, which has become

known as California's fire season. The Los Angeles Times analyzed that the combination of the

strong winds coming through California and the large amount of growth that dried out during the

summer increased the chances for a wildfire to spread rapidly and cause a lot of damage

(Krishnakumar et. al, 2017). In a study done by Yufang Jin et. al1, they concluded that the

15 California fires that have caused the most destruction have occurred during these Santa Ana

months. One of the most damaging fires in California has been the Tubbs Fire. The Tubbs Fire 2

started on October 8th, 2017 and spread quickly throughout Sonoma County and Napa County,

California. On October 31st, the fire was 100% contained, burning a total of 36, 807 acres and

killing 22 people.

20 On October 14, when the Tubbs Fire was only 50% contained, The New York Times

reported on the destruction caused by Northern California wildfires, using satellite images and

ground surveys. With data from the U.S. Geological Survey for the fire perimeter and Sonoma

1
Jin, Yufang et. al: “Identification of two distinct fire regimes in Southern California: implications for
economic impact and future change”
2
Cal Fire: Tubbs Fire Incident Information
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County Vegetation and Habitat Mapping Program for building footprints, The New York Times

estimated that at least 5,100 structures had been burned. The analysis also used satellite imagery

25 from DigitalGlobe to show 1,300 destroyed homes in a Santa Rosa neighborhood. Ground

surveys determined that almost no structures sustained partial damage, showing the direct

relationship between burned area and destroyed homes (Griggs et al., 2017). This study

effectively communicated the destruction of the fire and visually represented its extent, but relied

on GIS for estimates and did not further analyze the DigitalGlobe imagery.

30 Thermal Indicators

Studies have shown that remote sensing is a viable method for assessing and mapping fire

intensity, fire severity, and burn severity. To assess a fire-prone region of South Dakota, Lentile

et al. assessed relevant remote sensors, active fire characteristics and methods for measuring fire

severity. They used Landsat 7 and field observation to map fire perimeter, and the Normalized

35 Burn Ratio (NBR) to determine burn severity, but also assessed active fire characteristics with

the thermal infrared band of Landsat Thematic Mapper. Thermal anomalies can be detected in

the electromagnetic spectrum range of 3 - 14 µm. As we will discuss further, Landsat utilizes

windows from 10.5 - 12.5 µm due to limitations in the procedure. This method is effective

because the thermal emissivity of an active fire is greater than that of its surroundings (Lentile et

40 al., 2006). We will attempt to georeference critical hotspots of the active Tubbs fire with Landsat

8 thermal infrared band 10.

NDVI

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) has also been widely used to detect and

measure the extent of wildfires, using the photosynthetic activity of vegetation to indicate the
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45 location and extent of wildfires. NDVI3 uses Red and Near Infrared spectral bands to measure

healthy vegetation based on the principle that photosynthetic organisms absorb most red light

and reflect most near infrared light (Jensen, 2013). NDVI was used to locate and estimate the

extent of wildfires in Alaskan boreal forests, in which the red and near infrared bands of

AVHRR4 imagery were used to detect burned areas in remote forests. NDVI values in burned

50 areas were found to be significantly lower than in unburned areas (Kasischke and French, 1995).

Using MODIS sensors, we will compare the change in NDVI during the Tubbs fire with average

annual values from the same region.

Hypotheses

This paper will assess the feasibility and reliability of using satellite thermal imagery to map fire

55 extent and determine if there is a correlation between NDVI values and fire activity.

We expect that thermal bands will provide an accurate active fire extent and allow

sensors to identify critical areas of the fire, as the extreme temperature of fire should provide a

radiant flux easily distinguishable from surrounding landscape. We also expect increased fire

activity to be correlated with low NDVI post-fire values. Lower NDVI values represent lower

60 vegetative production as burned vegetation will no longer reflect near infrared light or absorb red

light to the extent that healthy vegetation does. Finally, we anticipate that recovery effort will be

difficult and slow in the Santa Rosa region, as the extent and number of structures destroyed was

so incredible.

Methods & Results

65 One goal of this study was to explore the feasibility of mapping active fire boundaries using

thermal imagery. Before we explain our process, it is important to first understand the concept of

3
NDVI = (NIR - Red) / (NIR + Red)
4
Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA)
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thermal remote sensing. Every object on earth with an internal temperature greater than absolute

zero emits unique thermal infrared energy, known as radiant flux and measured in watts (Jenson,

2013). Therefore, it is theoretically possible to make distinctions between objects on earth’s

70 surface by comparing radiant flux. Unfortunately, the human eye is not sensitive to the thermal

wavelengths. Certain substances on earth are very sensitive to thermal energy; digital sensors

have been developed that can measure emitted thermal radiation.

When working in the thermal infrared spectrum, there are important factors to remember

to allow for effective analysis. First, thermal infrared energy extends from 3 - 14 μm on the

75 spectral scale. (Jensen, 2013) Unfortunately, we are not able to utilize this full range;

atmospheric interference is a limiting factor. H 20, CO2, and O3 form absorption bands that absorb

a significant amount of thermal infrared radiation between 3 - 14 μm, creating atmospheric

windows in the electromagnetic spectrum that sensors must utilize in order to provide accurate

data. The Earth’s ozone layer absorbs much of the thermal energy exiting the terrain in an

80 absorption band from approximately 9 - 10 μm (Jensen, 2013). This leaves the window from

10.5 - 12.5 μm to avoid the absorption band. We will utilize band 10 which occurs from 10.6 -

11.19 μm.

In terms of cost and resolution, we found the best imagery available was Landsat 8

OLI/TIRS C1 Level-1. This sensor provides 11 bands at 30 meter spatial resolution capturing the

85 entirety of earth every 16 days. 5 The sensor follows a near polar orbit, completing over 14 orbits

per day and capturing 400 scenes per day. 6 (Fig. 1) This both reduces the risk of cloud

interference and creates the possibility of scene overlap. As we will discuss further in our

conclusions, it is important to remember that Landsat 8 thermal infrared is acquired at 100 meter

5
Landsat, nasa.gov
6
Landsat, nasa.gov
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resolution and resampled to 30 meter resolution. Using Glovis7, a product by USGS, we were

90 able to analyze two scenes captured on October 11, 2017 and October 12, 2017.

Figure 1. Landsat 8 near polar orbit. landsat.usgs.gov.

While Landsat 8 provides two thermal bands, they recommend that users refrain from relying on

95 band 11 data in quantitative analysis of the thermal infrared sensors data due to the larger

calibration uncertainty associated with this band. In other words, band 11 is contaminated by

stray light from outside the field of view.8 Using ENVI, we compared the scaled DN 9 pixel

values in the area we knew the fire had burned to the surrounding DN values we knew had not

been affected. We found that setting thresholds of DN values of 31,750 for Oct. 11 and 24,750

100 for Oct. 12 isolated active fire pixels from the rest of the scene. Using the temperature retrieval

algorithm provided on Landsat website, these values can be converted to represent a range from

approximately 290 K - 360 K. It is important to note that this range represents “Top of

Atmosphere Brightness Temperature” and does not represent Land Surface Temperature. This

paper recognizes that converting TOA Brightness Temperature to Land Surface Temperature is

7
Glovis, USGS
8
Landsat, usgs.gov
9
Digital Number
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105 possible, but can provide inaccurate estimations due water vapor interference and emissivity.

Once the thresholds were finalized, we loaded the .tif files from both dates into Arcmap. Using

the function “Reclass”, we created a new raster with all pixels values under the threshold being

set to null. Finally, performing the “raster-to-vector” conversion on the newly created raster

produced polygons made up of all the pixel values above our threshold. We overlaid these

110 polygons on our fire both our original thermal imagery as well as a standard basemap to visualize

the final result. (Fig. 2 and Fig. 3)

Figure 2

Figure 2
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Figure 3
115
As a point of comparison, we also wanted to produce accurate maps of the fire

boundaries according to Cal Fire’s reports. Cal Fire publishes geographic wildfire data that is

made available to the public over various platforms. We were able to downloaded fire boundary

polygons from a Cal Fire Server 10 from October 10th - October 20th. Loading these polygons

120 into Arcmap, we produced a 10-day animated fire growth map 11 and a single 5-day growth

choropleth map. (Fig. 4)

10
ftp.nifc.gov
11
https://giphy.com/gifs/wildfire-gis-santa-rosa-3oxHQHzO9ko9FjaL16
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Figure 4

Seeing as it occupied a highly vegetated area of wine country, the Tubbs Fire had

125 immense capabilities to inflict serious damage on the amount of remaining live vegetation within

the region. In order to assess this damage, we wanted to compare NDVI values during and after

the fire with the norms for the same time span in previous years. We chose eMODIS V6 NDVI

product to perform our calculations and evaluate the annual comparison. The MODIS vegetation

indices are calculated in 16 day intervals based on daily assessments with red and infrared bands,

130 and corrected for BRDF.12

12
https://modis-land.gsfc.nasa.gov/vi.html
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To start, we downloaded the imagery in 1-week intervals from USGS during the time

period from September 26 - November 20; then, we clipped each week’s imagery with a

shapefile of the Tubbs final extent. We used the Zonal Statistics tool to acquire the median,

mean, minimum and maximum NDVI values for each week. The median values were used as the

135 point of reference and to determine the change each week. For a visual representation of the

fire’s effect over time, we created a choropleth map for each week using the same category

breakdowns for NDVI values. This is shown as a composite of each of the 8 maps for a side-by-

side comparison of the weekly change. (Fig. 5)

140 Figure 5.

Further, it was also important to confirm that the decreasing NDVI values were linked to

the fire and not normal for the time of year. To assess for correlation, we calculated the median

NDVI values for the same 8-week period for the years 2014 - 2016 using the same process. We

created a line chart for each year, along with a trendline and equation. The slope of the trendline
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145 for each chart determined whether or not the NDVI values were increasing or decreasing

throughout the time period. Fig. 6 compares the slope for greater visualization of the change.

Figure 6.
150 The Tubb’s Fire started Oct. 8th, 2017 at around 9:45 p.m. in the South West edge of

Napa County. The fire rapidly moved down into Sonoma County during the night, affecting

significantly more people as it made its way from a less populated area of mostly wine country,

into a much more populated urbanized area. Ultimately, the fact that the fire was able to make its
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way into a more densely populated area helps explain why the Tubb’s Fire is recognized as the

155 single most destructive fire in California state history.

In order to gage recovery efforts of the worst fire in California history, we created two

demographic maps. We used our fire perimeter polygon and layered it on top of demographic

data from the 2010 U.S.Census. Fig. 7 shows a population density map of the affected areas, and

Fig. 8 reflects the mean annual income of populations in these census tracts.

160
Figure 7.
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Figure 8.

165 Discussion & Conclusion

After reviewing our final data, we conclude that while it is possible to identify thermal anomalies

such as a wildfires, Landsat 8 may not be the most effective sensor for doing so. There are many

limitations to sensing wildfires thermally, including spatial, temporal, and spectral resolution,

interference or scattering, and emissivity. As stated, it is important to remember that Landsat 8

170 TIRS bands are acquired at 100 meter resolution, but then resampled to 30 meter in delivered

data product.13 While the spatial resolution does provide a means of area estimation, the

precision of our active fire area is jeopardized the resample function, and therefore could provide

faulty data for fire crews. Temporally, one or two scenes every 16 days will not allow daily

mapping of the active fire regions. Spectrally, the small atmospheric windows we are able to

175 sense thermal infrared energy in are limiting. According to Wien's Displacement Law, true

13
Landsat Bands, landsat.usgs.gov
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temperature dictates the dominant wavelength produced. (Jensen, 2013) Wildfire temperatures

are dependent on a number of factors including fuel and oxygen availability. (Dennison, 2006)

This means that the dominant wavelength of a fire will vary according to temperature. According

to Jensen, the dominant wavelength provides valuable information about which part of the

180 spectra we want to sense in. Therefore, no one wavelength is perfect for measuring every fire and

we are spectrally limited using Landsat 8. As previously stated, interference and scattering also

affect sensors outside Earth’s atmosphere. In addition to the atmospheric windows an orbital

sensor must work within, the amount of smoke produced by the fires can seriously limit a

thermal sensors ability to accurately sense active fire areas. Due to the large diameter of smoke

185 particles, mie scattering occurs, and can limit the ability of thermal infrared wavelengths to reach

the sensors. Cloud cover can also affect data, as water vapor non selectively scatters all

wavelengths and hinders the orbital sensors ability to collect data. As stated, there may also be

light contamination in the thermal infrared bands.

As always, increased resolution would greatly improve the process of using thermal

190 infrared energy to accurately map active fires. While we recognize that resolution tradeoffs have

been historically necessary in remote sensing, the ideal sensor would be an AVIRIS-like

hyperspectral sensor equipped to a geostationary satellite with spatial resolution ranging from

10-20 meters; this would allow effective continuous thermal fire mapping. Unfortunately,

interference and scattering from clouds, smoke, and atmospheric gas would continue to impede

195 thermal measurements. Lastly, emissivity must always be taken into account when estimating

fire temperatures on using thermal sensors, as the radiant temperature will always be slightly less

than the true kinetic temperature. (Jensen, 2013)

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Through the exploration of satellite images, an analysis of the normalized difference

vegetation index (NDVI) can be undertaken vis-à-vis two dominant colors: green or red.

200 Vegetation health can be summarized through these NDVI values—the gradual transition from

green to yellow to red illustrates an overall reduction in both extent and health of the area’s

vegetation. By deconstructing the Tubbs fire boundary into weekly intervals, a concise NDVI

timeline emerges to the surface. Moreover, by comparing this weekly NDVI trajectory amongst

two yearly intervals (between the years 2016 and 2017), a 3-series analysis can be achieved: an

205 understanding of vegetation health before, during, and after the Tubbs fire’s berth on a yearly

timespan. In 2016, a year before the Tubbs fire occurred, the extent showcased a slight increase

in vegetation health (NDVI values). This increase in vegetation health is heavily juxtaposed by

the following year’s (2017) indices—through the scope of an 8-week period, from September

26th through November 20th, the average vegetation health for the area can be analyzed before

210 and after the Tubbs fire’s impact. As expected, the fire catalyzed an ongoing regression of

vegetation health (characterized by the prominent downward trend in NDVI values). To add

another facet of understanding to our analysis, a calculation of vegetation health in the years

2014 and 2015 was further examined. This analysis served as a safety precaution of sorts: if the

vegetation health of the extent (multiple years prior to the Tubbs fire’s outbreak) showed an

215 apparent decrease, there had to be other outside factors influencing these oscillations. However,

these prior years followed the same trajectory of 2016—an overall increase in vegetation health.

Ergo, the clear decrease in NDVI values in the year 2017 was an outcome of the Tubbs fire’s

devastation.
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220 Figure 9.
Included in our references is a link to a google webpage we designed to represent the fire

hazardous areas of the 2017 fire season. The embedded interactive map allows the viewer to

visualize where these hazardous areas are located, and in turn more easily visualize the

vulnerability of Sonoma County to intense fires such as Tubbs.

225 Due to the extent of the fire and the damage that resulted, we predicted that recovery

would be difficult. Figure choropleth ultimately shows that the areas affected by the fire are

actually considerably stable financially. Only two out of thirteen census tracts were represented

as “red” with a mean annual income between $48,281 and $58,041. Note that the national mean

average income is approximately $51,939, so the two tracts within the lowest income ranges on

230 the map are actually well within the national average. About five of the thirteen tracks have a

mean annual income above $100,000. Only about twenty percent of the American population

makes above six figures, so it clear that these areas within Sonoma County have a significantly
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wealthy population. This ultimately suggests that those who were affected by the Tubb’s Fire

(approximately 5,643 structures were lost), likely had the means to afford home insurance and

235 other amenities that will likely make recovery easier. (Fig. 10) If the fire had occurred in an area

with a mean annual income below average, it is likely that it would take an even longer time to

recover and rebuild.

Figure 10.

240
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