Trabajo de Hidrologia

“UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL PEDRO RUIZ GALLO”
Facultad de Ingeniería Civil, de Sistemas y Arquitectura

Escuela Profesional de Ingeniería Civil
DESARROLLO DE APLICAION EN CLASE

ANALISIS DE CONFIABILIDAD DE INFORMACION ESTADISTICO S-K
DISTRIBUCION NORMAL
CAUDALES MAXIMOS, MINIMOS Y MEDIOS. ESTACION “CACAO”
RIO CHUNCHUCA –CUENCA DE CUNCHUCA

LONG. 78°57’ LAT 5°55’ ALT. 900 msnm
m Qmax Qmin Qmed

1 177 7.8 23.58
2 139 6.1 20.12
3 214 6.5 21.04
4 140 7.5 19.65
5 210 9.2 20.45
6 207 11.7 33.61
7 205 14.8 39.5
8 183 11.6 36.51
9 132 10.8 31.46
10 185 12.3 230.47
11 145.2 5.76 19.23
12 102.5 6.8 22.59
13 160 9.21 23.44
14 181.7 10.4 26.63
15 191.7 10.2 29.56
16 164.7 11 27.17
17 163.5 5.26 19.66
18 189.4 10.5 23.12
19 194 8 25.59
20 134 7.5 23.24
21 185.4 7.5 31.54
22 192.9 8.2 25.08
23 183.7 9.2 25.26
24 132 10.7 29.57
25 187.8 6.8 32.74
HIDROLOGIA
ANÁLISIS PARA CAUDAL MÁXIMO
m Qmax (x-X)2 p(x) z f(z) If(z)-P(x)I

1 102.5 4833.0304 0.03846 -2.36810 0.00894 0.02952
2 132 1601.6004 0.07692 -1.36322 0.08641 0.00949
3 132 1601.6004 0.11538 -1.36322 0.08641 0.02897
4 134 1445.5204 0.15385 -1.29510 0.09765 0.05620
5 139 1090.3204 0.19231 -1.12478 0.13035 0.06196
6 140 1025.2804 0.23077 -1.09071 0.13494 0.09582
7 145.2 719.3124 0.26923 -0.91358 0.18047 0.08876
8 160 144.4804 0.30769 -0.40944 0.34111 0.03341
9 163.5 72.5904 0.34615 -0.29022 0.38583 0.03967
10 164.7 53.5824 0.38462 -0.24935 0.40154 0.01693
11 177 24.8004 0.42308 0.16964 0.56735 0.14427
12 181.7 93.7024 0.46154 0.32974 0.62920 0.16766
13 183 120.5604 0.50000 0.37402 0.64581 0.14581
14 183.7 136.4224 0.53846 0.39786 0.65463 0.11617
15 185 168.4804 0.57692 0.44214 0.67080 0.09388
16 185.4 179.0244 0.61538 0.45577 0.67572 0.06033
17 187.8 249.0084 0.65385 0.53752 0.70432 0.05047
18 189.4 302.0644 0.69231 0.59202 0.72308 0.03077
19 191.7 387.3024 0.73077 0.67037 0.74869 0.01792
20 192.9 435.9744 0.76923 0.71125 0.76154 0.00769
21 194 483.1204 0.80769 0.74872 0.77297 0.03473
22 205 1087.6804 0.84615 1.12342 0.86937 0.02321
23 207 1223.6004 0.88462 1.19154 0.88327 0.00134
24 210 1442.4804 0.92308 1.29373 0.90212 0.02096
25 214 1762.3204 0.96154 1.42999 0.92778 0.03376
suma 4300.5 20683.86
promedio 172.02
desviacion estandar 29.35690
25
suma   X i  4300.5m3 / s
x 1
25
X i
4300.5
promedio  x 1
  172.02m3 / s
25 25
Desviación estándar
HIDROLOGIA
25 _
 ( xi  x) 2
20683.86
Sx  x 1
  29.35690
n 1 24
Tabla de interpolaciones
Z F(z) Z F(Z) Z F(Z)
2.36 0.99086 1.36 0.91308 1.29 0.90147
2.3681 0.99106 1.36322 0.91359 1.2951 0.90235
2.37 0.99111 1.37 0.91465 1.3 0.9032
1.12 0.86864 1.09 0.86214 0.91 0.81859

1.12478 0.86965 1.09071 0.86506 0.91358 0.81953
1.13 0.87076 1.1 0.9032 0.92 0.82121
0.4 0.65542 0.29 0.61409 0.24 0.59483

0.40944 0.65889 0.29022 0.61417 0.24935 0.59846
0.41 0.6591 0.3 0.61791 0.25 0.59871
0.16 0.56356 0.32 0.62551 0.37 0.64431

0.16964 0.56735 0.32974 0.62920 0.37402 0.64581
0.17 0.56749 0.33 0.6293 0.38 0.64803
0.39 0.65173 0.44 0.67003 0.45 0.67364

0.39786 0.65463 0.44214 0.67080 0.45577 0.67572
0.4 0.65542 0.45 0.67364 0.46 0.67724
0.53 0.70104 0.59 0.7224 0.67 0.74857

0.53752 0.70432 0.59202 0.72308 0.67037 0.74869
0.54 0.7054 0.6 0.72575 0.68 0.75175
0.71 0.76115 0.74 0.77035 1.12 0.86864

0.71125 0.76154 0.74872 0.77297 1.12342 0.86937
0.72 0.76424 0.75 0.77335 1.13 0.87076
1.19 0.88297 1.29 0.90147 1.42 0.92219

1.19154 0.88327 1.29373 0.90212 1.42999 0.92364
1.2 0.88493 1.3 0.9032 1.43 0.92364
HIDROLOGIA
Prueba de bondad de ajuste Smirnov-Kolmogorov
max  F ( x)  P( x)
Siendo:
 max : Estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorov
F(x): probabilidad de la distribución de ajustes o teoría
P(X): probabilidad experimental o empírica de los datos (frecuencia acumulada)
Tabla
Valores críticos de  0 del estadístico Smirnov Kolmogorov “  ” para varios valores de “n” y
niveles de significancia “  ”
Tamaño de Nivel de significancia

la muestra “  =0.05”
25 0.27
ANALISIS DE CONFIABILIDAD
F ( x)  P( x)   S  K
0.16766  0.27
Por lo tanto de los datos anteriores concluimos que el ajuste es bueno y la
información es confiable
TIEMPOS DE RETORNO DE 25, 50, 100, 200 AÑOS
TIEMPO DE RETORNO PARA 25 AÑOS.
xi  x
Zi 
Sx F(x) z
0.95994 1.75
1
p( x  a)  1   0.96 0.96 1.7507
25 0.9608 1.76
Q  172.02
1.7507 
29.3569
Q25  223.4151m3 / s
HIDROLOGIA
1
p( x  a)  1   98
50
F(x) z
Q  172.02 0.97982 2.05
2.05375  0.98 2.05375
29.3569
0.98030 2.06
Q50  232.31m3 / s
1
p( x  a)  1   99
100 F(x) z
0.98983 2.32
Q  172.02
2.3263  0.99 2.3263
29.3569
0.99010 2.33
Q100  240.3130m3 / s
TIEMPO DE RETORNO PARA 200AÑOS.
1
p( x  a)  1   9950
200 F(x) z
0.99492 2.57
Q  172.02
2.5757  0.995 2.5757
29.3569
0.99506 2.58
Q200  247.6346m3 / s
DETERMINACIÓN DE LA PROBABILIDAD DE OCURRENCIA
PROBABILIDAD DE OCURRENCIA PARA P(Q  150m3 s)
P(Q  150m3 s)
z F(z)
0.75 0.77337
150  172.02
Zi   0.7501 0.7501 0.7734
29.3569 0.76 0.77637
HIDROLOGIA
F (0.7501)  1  F ( z )
F (0.7501)  1  0.7734
F (0.7501)  0.2266
F (0.7501)  22.66%
P(Q  250m3 s)
z F(z)
x x
Zi  i 2.65 0.99598
Sx
2.65628 0.99605
250  172.02 2.66 0.77637
Zi   2.65628
29.3569
F (0.2.65628)  0.99605
 99.605%
P(Q  350m3 s)
xi  x
Zi 
Sx
350  172.02
Zi   6.06
29.3569
F(Z)= 100%
HIDROLOGIA
ANALISIS DE CONFIABILIAD DE DISTRIBUCION LOG NORMAL 2 PARAMETROS
EXPRESIONES UTILES PARA ESTIMAR PARAMETROS
DATOS
25
suma   X i  4300.5m3 / s
x 1
25
X i
4300.5
promedio  x 1
  172.02m3 / s
25 25
25 _
 ( xi  x) 2
20683.86
Sx  x 1
  29.35690
n 1 24
y  uy
z
y
S X 29.3569
COEFICIENTE DE VARIACION CV    0.1707
X 172.02
VARIANZA:
Y 2  ln(1  Cv2 )
Y  ln(1  0.1707 2 )
Y  0.16944
Yi=ln(xi)
F ( z )  1  F ( z )
m
P( x) 
n 1
HIDROLOGIA
DISTRIBUCION LOG NORMAL 2 PARAMETROS

m Qmedi (x-X)2 Y z P(x) F(z) I f(x)-P(x) I
1 102.5 4833.0304 4.62986 -2.97099 0.03846 0.00148 0.03698
2 132 1601.6004 4.88280 -1.47816 0.07692 0.06968 0.00724
3 132 1601.6004 4.88280 -1.47816 0.11538 0.06968 0.04570
4 134 1445.5204 4.89784 -1.38941 0.15385 0.08235 0.07149
5 139 1090.3204 4.93447 -1.17320 0.19231 0.12036 0.07195
6 140 1025.2804 4.94164 -1.13089 0.23077 0.12905 0.10172
7 145.2 719.3124 4.97811 -0.91565 0.26923 0.17993 0.08931
8 160 144.4804 5.07517 -0.34280 0.30769 0.36587 0.05818
9 163.5 72.5904 5.09681 -0.21509 0.34615 0.41485 0.06870
10 164.7 53.5824 5.10413 -0.17193 0.38462 0.43175 0.04713
11 177 24.8004 5.17615 0.25315 0.42308 0.59992 0.17685
12 181.7 93.7024 5.20236 0.40783 0.46154 0.65830 0.19676
13 183 120.5604 5.20949 0.44990 0.50000 0.67361 0.17361
14 183.7 136.4224 5.21330 0.47243 0.53846 0.68169 0.14323
15 185 168.4804 5.22036 0.51405 0.57692 0.69639 0.11947
16 185.4 179.0244 5.22252 0.52680 0.61538 0.70083 0.08545
17 187.8 249.0084 5.23538 0.60271 0.65385 0.72665 0.07280
18 189.4 302.0644 5.24386 0.65278 0.69231 0.74305 0.05074
19 191.7 387.3024 5.25593 0.72402 0.73077 0.76547 0.03470
20 192.9 435.9744 5.26217 0.76085 0.76923 0.77663 0.00740
21 194 483.1204 5.26786 0.79441 0.80769 0.78652 0.02117
22 205 1087.6804 5.32301 1.11991 0.84615 0.86862 0.02247
23 207 1223.6004 5.33272 1.17721 0.88462 0.88044 0.00417
24 210 1442.4804 5.34711 1.26213 0.92308 0.89655 0.02653
25 214 1762.3204 5.36598 1.37349 0.96154 0.91520 0.04634
suma 4300.5000 20683.860
promedio 172.0200
Sx= 29.3569
Cv= 0.1707
MEDIA(uy) 5.1333
VARIANZA 0.16944
HIDROLOGIA
DISTRIBUCION NORMAL PARA CADA VALOR DE Z
Z F(Z) Z F(Z) Z F(Z)

2.97000 0.99851 1.47000 0.92922 1.47000 0.92922
2.97099 0.99852 1.47816 0.93032 1.47816 0.93032
2.98000 0.99856 1.48000 0.93056 1.48000 0.93056
1.38000 0.91621 1.17000 0.87900 1.13000 0.87076

1.38941 0.91765 1.17320 0.87964 1.13089 0.87095
1.39000 0.91774 1.18000 0.88100 1.14000 0.87286
0.91000 0.81859 0.34000 0.63307 0.21000 0.58317

0.91565 0.82007 0.34280 0.63413 0.21509 0.58515
0.92000 0.82121 0.35000 0.63683 0.22000 0.58706
0.17000 0.56749 0.25000 0.59871 0.40000 0.65542

0.17193 0.56825 0.25315 0.59992 0.40783 0.65830
0.18000 0.57142 0.26000 0.60257 0.41000 0.65910
0.44000 0.67003 0.47000 0.68082 0.51000 0.69497

0.44990 0.67361 0.47243 0.68169 0.51405 0.69639
0.45000 0.67364 0.48000 0.68439 0.52000 0.69847
0.52000 0.69847 0.60000 0.72575 0.65000 0.74215

0.52680 0.70083 0.60271 0.72665 0.65278 0.74305
0.53000 0.70194 0.61000 0.72907 0.66000 0.74537
0.72000 0.76424 0.76000 0.77637 0.79000 0.78524

0.72402 0.76547 0.76085 0.77663 0.79441 0.78652
0.73000 0.76730 0.77000 0.77935 0.80000 0.78814
1.11000 0.86650 1.17000 0.87900 1.26000 0.89617

1.11991 0.86862 1.17721 0.88044 1.26213 0.89655
1.12000 0.86864 1.18000 0.88100 1.27000 0.89796
1.37000 0.91466
1.37349 0.91520
1.38000 0.91621
TAMAÑO DE MUESTRA N=25 PARA   0.05   S  K  0.27
F ( x)  P( x)   S  K
0.19676  0.27
Por lo tanto de los datos anteriores concluimos que el ajuste es bueno y la información es
confiable
HIDROLOGIA
Y  uY
Zi 
Y F(x) z
1 0.97982 2.05
p( x  a)  1   0.96 0.98 2.05375
25
0.98030 2.06
uY  5.1333
 y  0.16944
ln(Q)  5.1333
1.7507 
0.16944
Q25  228.135m3 / s
1
p( x  a)  1   98
50
F(x) z
ln(Q)  5.1333 0.97982 2.05
2.05375  0.98 2.05375
0.16944
0.98030 2.06
Q50  240.15m3 / s
1
p( x  a)  1   99
100 F(x) z
0.98983 2.32
ln(Q)  5.1333
2.3263  0.99 2.3263
0.16944
0.99010 2.33
Q100  251.5063m3 / s
HIDROLOGIA
1
p( x  a)  1   9950
200 F(x) z
0.99492 2.57
ln(Q )  5.1333
2.5757  0.995 2.5757
0.16944
0.99506 2.58
Q200  262.3624m3 / s
P(Q  150m3 s)
Y  uY z F(z)
Zi  0.72 0.7642375
Y
0.72394 0.7654487
ln(150)  5.1333
Zi   0.72394
0.16944 0.73 0.7673049
F ( z )  1  F ( z )
F ( z )  1  0.7654487
F ( z )  0.23455
F ( z )  23.455%
P(Q  250m3 s)
ln(250)  5.1333 z F(z)

Zi   2.29115 2.29 0.9889893
0.16944
F ( z )  0.98902) 2.2911516 0.9890227
F ( z )  98.9% 2.3 0.9892759
P(Q  350m3 s)
HIDROLOGIA
ln(350)  5.1333 z f(z)

Zi   4.2766
0.16944 4.27 0.99999
F ( z )  0.9999 4.27698 0.99999
F ( z )  100% 4.28 0.99999
ANALISIS DE CAUDAL MEDIO
m Qmedi (x-X)2 p(x) z f(z) f(z)-P(x)

1 19.23 51.77666 0.03846 -1.28317 0.09972 0.06126
2 19.65 45.90876 0.07692 -1.20827 0.11347 0.03655
3 19.66 45.77334 0.11538 -1.20649 0.11226 0.00312
4 20.12 39.76059 0.15385 -1.12446 0.12622 0.02762
5 20.45 35.70780 0.19231 -1.06561 0.14330 0.04901
6 21.04 29.00469 0.23077 -0.96040 0.16843 0.06234
7 22.59 14.71183 0.26923 -0.68399 0.24699 0.02224
8 23.12 10.92699 0.30769 -0.58948 0.27777 0.02992
9 23.24 10.14805 0.34615 -0.56808 0.28499 0.06116
10 23.44 8.91381 0.38462 -0.53241 0.29791 0.08671
11 23.58 8.09744 0.42308 -0.50745 0.30593 0.11715
12 25.08 1.81064 0.46154 -0.23996 0.40519 0.05635
13 25.26 1.35862 0.50000 -0.20786 0.41529 0.08471
14 25.59 0.69823 0.53846 -0.14901 0.44077 0.09769
15 26.63 0.04178 0.57692 0.03645 0.51453 0.06239
16 27.17 0.55413 0.61538 0.13275 0.55281 0.06258
17 29.56 9.82446 0.65385 0.55895 0.71190 0.05805
18 29.57 9.88725 0.69231 0.56073 0.71280 0.02049
19 30.47 16.35717 0.73077 0.72123 0.76482 0.03405
20 31.49 25.64815 0.76923 0.90312 0.81677 0.04754
21 31.54 26.15709 0.80769 0.91204 0.81912 0.01143
22 32.54 37.38589 0.84615 1.09036 0.86222 0.01606
23 33.61 51.61560 0.88462 1.28117 0.89993 0.01532
24 36.51 101.69512 0.92308 1.79832 0.96394 0.04086
25 39.5 170.93994 0.96154 2.33152 0.99014 0.02860
suma 660.64 754.70402
promedio 26.4256
Sx= 5.60767
25
suma   X i  660.64m3 / s
x 1
25
X i
660.64
promedio  x 1
  26.4256m3 / s
25 25
HIDROLOGIA
25 _
 ( xi  x) 2
754.70402
Sx  x 1
  5.60767
n 1 24
1.28 0.89973 0.58 0.71904 0.03 0.51197
1.28317 0.90028 0.58948 0.72223 0.03645 0.51453
1.29 0.90147 0.59 0.7224 0.04 0.51594
1.2 0.88493 0.56 0.71226 0.13 0.55172

1.20827 0.88653 0.56808 0.71501 0.13275 0.55281
1.21 0.88686 0.57 0.71566 0.14 0.55567
1.32 0.90658 0.53 0.70104 0.55 0.70884

1.20649 0.88774 0.53241 0.70209 0.55895 0.71190
1.33 0.90824 0.54 0.7054 0.56 0.71226
1.12 0.87285 0.5 0.69146 0.56 0.71226

1.12446 0.87378 0.50745 0.69407 0.56073 0.71280
1.13 0.87493 0.51 0.69497 0.57 0.71968
1.06 0.85543 0.23 0.59095 0.56 0.71226

1.06561 0.85670 0.23996 0.59481 0.56073 0.71280
1.07 0.85769 0.24 0.59483 0.57 0.71968
0.96 0.83147 0.4 0.65542 0.76 0.77637

0.9604 0.83157 0.20786 0.58471 0.72123 0.76482
0.97 0.83397 0.41 0.6591 0.77 0.77935
0.68 0.75175 0.14 0.55567 0.9 0.81594

0.68399 0.75301 0.14901 0.55923 0.90312 0.81677
0.69 0.7549 0.15 0.55962 0.91 0.81859
1.09 0.86214 1.28 0.89973 0.91 0.81859

1.09036 0.86222 1.28117 0.89993 0.91204 0.81912
1.1 0.86433 1.29 0.90147 0.92 0.82121
1.79 0.96327 2.33 0.99010

1.79832 0.96394 2.33152 0.99014
1.8 0.96407 2.34 0.99036

25 0.27
HIDROLOGIA
F ( x)  P( x)   S  K
0.11715  0.27
confiable
xi  x
Zi 
Sx F(x) z
0.95994 1.75
xi  26.4256
Zi  0.96 1.7507
5.60737 0.9608 1.76
1
p( x  a)  1   0.96
25
Q  26.4256
1.7507 
5.60737
Q25  36.2424m3 / s
1
p( x  a)  1   98
50
F(x) z
Q  26.4256 0.97982 2.05
2.05375  0.98 2.05375
5.60737
0.98030 2.06
Q50  37.94m3 / s
1
p( x  a)  1   99
100 F(x) z
0.98983 2.32
Q  26.4256
2.3263  0.99 2.3263
5.60737
0.99010 2.33
Q100  39.47 m3 / s
HIDROLOGIA
1
p( x  a)  1   9950
200 F(x) z
0.99492 2.57
Q  26.4256
2.5757  0.995 2.5757
5.60737
0.99506 2.58
Q200  40.8685m3 / s
DATOS
25
suma   X i  660.64m3 / s
x 1
25
X i
660.64
promedio  x 1
  26.4256m3 / s
25 25
25 _
 ( xi  x)2 754.70402
Sx  x 1
  5.60767
n 1 24
y  uy
z
y
SX 5.60767
X 26.42569
VARIANZA:
Y 2  ln(1  Cv2 )
Y  ln(1  0.21222 )
Y  0.20987
HIDROLOGIA
Yi=ln(xi)
F ( z )  1  F ( z )
m
P( x) 
n 1

1 19.23 51.7767 2.95647 -1.40960 0.03846 0.07933 0.04087
2 19.65 45.9088 2.97808 -1.30665 0.07692 0.09567 0.01874
3 19.66 45.7733 2.97859 -1.30423 0.11538 0.09608 0.01931
4 20.12 39.7606 3.00171 -1.19403 0.15385 0.11623 0.03761
5 20.45 35.7078 3.01798 -1.11651 0.19231 0.13210 0.06021
6 21.04 29.0047 3.04643 -0.98099 0.23077 0.16330 0.06747
7 22.59 14.7118 3.11751 -0.64230 0.26923 0.26034 0.00889
8 23.12 10.9270 3.14070 -0.53180 0.30769 0.29743 0.01026
9 23.24 10.1480 3.14587 -0.50714 0.34615 0.30603 0.04012
10 23.44 8.9138 3.15444 -0.46631 0.38462 0.32050 0.06412
11 23.58 8.0974 3.16040 -0.43793 0.42308 0.33072 0.09236
12 25.08 1.8106 3.22207 -0.14408 0.46154 0.44272 0.01882
13 25.26 1.3586 3.22922 -0.11001 0.50000 0.45620 0.04380
14 25.59 0.6982 3.24220 -0.04816 0.53846 0.48079 0.05767
15 26.63 0.0418 3.28204 0.14165 0.57692 0.55632 0.02060
16 27.17 0.5541 3.30211 0.23730 0.61538 0.59379 0.02160
17 29.56 9.8245 3.38642 0.63901 0.65385 0.73859 0.08475
18 29.57 9.8873 3.38676 0.64063 0.69231 0.73912 0.04681
19 30.47 16.3572 3.41674 0.78348 0.73077 0.78333 0.05256
20 31.49 25.6481 3.44967 0.94038 0.76923 0.82649 0.05726
21 31.54 26.1571 3.45126 0.94794 0.80769 0.82842 0.02073
22 32.54 37.3859 3.48247 1.09666 0.84615 0.86361 0.01745
23 33.61 51.6156 3.51482 1.25082 0.88462 0.89450 0.00988
24 36.51 101.6951 3.59759 1.64516 0.92308 0.95003 0.02695
25 39.5 170.9399 3.67630 2.02022 0.96154 0.97832 0.01678
suma 660.6400 754.704
promedio 26.42560
Sx= 5.60767
Cv= 0.21221
MEDIA(ux) 3.25231
VARIANZA 0.20987
HIDROLOGIA

1.40000 0.91924 1.30000 0.90320 1.30000 0.90320
1.40960 0.92067 1.30665 0.90433 1.30423 0.90392
1.41000 0.92073 1.31000 0.90490 1.31000 0.90490
1.19000 0.88298 1.11000 0.86650 0.98000 0.83646

1.19403 0.88377 1.11651 0.86790 0.98099 0.83670
1.20000 0.88493 1.12000 0.86864 0.99000 0.83891
0.64000 0.73891 0.53000 0.70194 0.50000 0.69146

0.64230 0.73966 0.53180 0.70257 0.50714 0.69397
0.65000 0.74215 0.54000 0.70540 0.51000 0.69497
0.46000 0.67724 0.43000 0.66640 0.14000 0.55567

0.46631 0.67950 0.43793 0.66928 0.14408 0.55728
0.47000 0.68082 0.44000 0.67003 0.15000 0.55962
0.11000 0.54380 0.04000 0.51595 0.14000 0.55567

0.11001 0.54380 0.04816 0.51921 0.14165 0.55632
0.12000 0.54776 0.05000 0.51994 0.15000 0.55962
0.23000 0.59095 0.63000 0.73565 0.64000 0.73891

0.23730 0.59379 0.63901 0.73859 0.64063 0.73912
0.24000 0.59483 0.64000 0.73891 0.65000 0.74215
0.78000 0.78230 0.94000 0.82639 0.94000 0.82639

0.78348 0.78333 0.94038 0.82649 0.94794 0.82842
0.79000 0.78524 0.95000 0.82894 0.95000 0.82894
1.09000 0.86214 1.25000 0.89435 1.64000 0.94950

1.09666 0.86361 1.25082 0.89450 1.64516 0.95003
1.10000 0.86433 1.26000 0.89617 1.65000 0.95053
2.02000 0.97831
2.02022 0.97832
2.03000 0.97882
F ( x)  P( x)   S  K
0.09236  0.27
confiable
HIDROLOGIA
Y  uY
Zi 
Y F(x) z
0.95994 1.75
1
p( x  a)  1   0.96 0.96 1.7507
25 0.9608 1.76
uY  3.25231
 y  0.20987
ln(Q)  3.25231
1.7507 
0.20987
Q25  37.3275m3 / s
1
p( x  a)  1   98
50
F(x) z
ln(Q)  3.25231 0.97982 2.05
2.05375  0.98 2.05375
0.20987
0.98030 2.06
Q50  39.78m / s
3
1
p( x  a)  1   99
100 F(x) z
0.98983 2.32
ln(Q)  3.25231
2.3263  0.99 2.3263
0.20987
0.99010 2.33
Q100  42.12m3 / s
HIDROLOGIA
1
p( x  a)  1   9950
200 F(x) z
0.99492 2.57
ln(Q)  3.25231
2.5757  0.995 2.5757
0.20987
0.99506 2.58
Q200  44.38m3 / s
ANALISIS ESTADISTICO DE DISTRIBUCION NORMALPARA CAUDALES MINIMOS
m Qmin (x-X)2 p(x) z f(z) f(z)-f(x)

1 5.26 14.08651 0.03846 -1.59353 0.05552 0.01706
2 5.76 10.58331 0.07692 -1.38124 0.08360 0.00668
3 6.1 8.48673 0.11538 -1.23689 0.10807 0.00732
4 6.5 6.31617 0.15385 -1.06705 0.14298 0.01087
5 6.8 4.89825 0.19231 -0.93968 0.17619 0.01612
6 6.8 4.89825 0.23077 -0.93968 0.17619 0.05458
7 7.5 2.28977 0.26923 -0.64247 0.26029 0.00894
8 7.5 2.28977 0.30769 -0.64247 0.26029 0.04740
9 7.5 2.28977 0.34615 -0.64247 0.26029 0.08586
10 7.8 1.47185 0.38462 -0.51510 0.30340 0.08122
11 8 1.02657 0.42308 -0.43018 0.33353 0.08954
12 8.2 0.66129 0.46154 -0.34527 0.36495 0.09659
13 9.2 0.03489 0.50000 0.07931 0.53161 0.03161
14 9.2 0.03489 0.53846 0.07931 0.53161 0.00686
15 9.21 0.03873 0.57692 0.08356 0.53330 0.04363
16 10.2 1.40849 0.61538 0.50389 0.69283 0.07744
17 10.4 1.92321 0.65385 0.58881 0.72200 0.06815
18 10.5 2.21057 0.69231 0.63127 0.73606 0.04376
19 10.7 2.84529 0.73077 0.71618 0.76306 0.03229
20 10.8 3.19265 0.76923 0.75864 0.77596 0.00673
21 11 3.94737 0.80769 0.84356 0.80054 0.00716
22 11.6 6.69153 0.84615 1.09830 0.86396 0.01780
23 11.7 7.21889 0.88462 1.14076 0.87301 0.01161
24 12.3 10.80305 0.92308 1.39551 0.91856 0.00451
25 14.8 33.48705 0.96154 2.45696 0.99299 0.03145
suma 225.33 133.13494
promedio 9.0132
Sx= 2.35527
25
suma   X i  225.33m3 / s
x 1
HIDROLOGIA
25
X i
225.33
promedio  x 1
  9.0132m3 / s
25 25
25 _
 ( xi  x)2 133.1349
Sx  x 1
  2.35527
n 1 24
1.59 0.94408 0.43 0.6664 0.71 0.76115

1.59353 0.94448 0.43018 0.66647 0.71618 0.76306
1.60 0.9452 0.44 0.67003 0.72 0.76424
1.38 0.91621 0.34 0.63307 0.75 0.77337

1.38124 0.91640 0.34527 0.63505 0.75864 0.77596
1.39 0.91773 0.35 0.63683 0.76 0.77637
1.23 0.89065 0.07 0.5279 0.84 0.79954

1.23689 0.89193 0.07931 0.53161 0.84356 0.80054
1.24 0.89251 0.08 0.53188 0.85 0.80234
1.06 0.85543 0.08 0.53188 1.09 0.86214

1.06705 0.85702 0.08356 0.53330 1.0983 0.86396
1.07 0.85769 0.09 0.53586 1.1 0.86433
0.93 0.82381 0.5 0.69146 1.14 0.87285

0.93968 0.82381 0.50389 0.69283 1.14076 0.87301
0.94 0.82381 0.51 0.69497 1.15 0.87493
0.64 0.73891 0.58 0.71904 1.39 0.91773

0.64247 0.73971 0.58881 0.72200 1.39551 0.91856
0.65 0.74215 0.59 0.7224 1.4 0.91924
0.51 0.69497 0.63 0.73565 2.45 0.99285

0.5151 0.69660 0.63127 0.73606 2.45696 0.99299
0.52 0.69817 0.64 0.73891 2.46 0.99305
HIDROLOGIA
F ( x)  P( x)   S  K
0.09659  0.27
confiable
xi  x
Zi 
Sx F(x) z
0.95994 1.75
xi  9.0132
Zi  0.96 1.7507
2.35527 0.9608 1.76
1
p( x  a)  1   0.96
25
Q  9.0132
1.7507 
2.35527
Q25  13.14m3 / s
1
p( x  a)  1   98
50
F(x) z
Q  9.0132 0.97982 2.05
2.0.5375  0.98 2.05375
2.35527
0.98030 2.06
Q50  13.85m3 / s
HIDROLOGIA
1
p( x  a)  1   99
100 F(x) z
0.98983 2.32
Q  9.0132
2.3263  0.99 2.3263
2.35527
0.99010 2.33
Q100  14.49m3 / s
1
p( x  a)  1   9950
200 F(x) z
0.99492 2.57
Q  9.0132
2.5757  0.995 2.5757
2.35527
0.99506 2.58
Q200  15.8m3 / s
DATOS
25
suma   X i  225.33m3 / s
x 1
25
X i
225.33
promedio  x 1
  9.0132m3 / s
25 25
25 _
 ( xi  x)2 133.1349
Sx  x 1
  2.35527
n 1 24
y  uy
z
y
S X 2.35527
X 9.0132
HIDROLOGIA
VARIANZA:
Y 2  ln(1  Cv2 )
Y  ln(1  0.6132 ) Yi=ln(xi) F ( z )  1  F ( z )
Y  0.2570
m
P( x) 
n 1

1 5.26 14.0865 1.66013 -1.96697 0.03846 0.02459 0.01387
2 5.76 10.5833 1.75094 -1.61365 0.07692 0.05330 0.02362
3 6.1 8.4867 1.80829 -1.39051 0.11538 0.08219 0.03320
4 6.5 6.3162 1.87180 -1.14338 0.15385 0.12644 0.02741
5 6.8 4.8983 1.91692 -0.96782 0.19231 0.16657 0.02574
6 6.8 4.8983 1.91692 -0.96782 0.23077 0.16657 0.06420
7 7.5 2.2898 2.01490 -0.58659 0.26923 0.27874 0.00951
8 7.5 2.2898 2.01490 -0.58659 0.30769 0.27874 0.02895
9 7.5 2.2898 2.01490 -0.58659 0.34615 0.27874 0.06741
10 7.8 1.4719 2.05412 -0.43399 0.38462 0.33215 0.05247
11 8 1.0266 2.07944 -0.33548 0.42308 0.36863 0.05445
12 8.2 0.6613 2.10413 -0.23940 0.46154 0.40540 0.05614
13 9.2 0.0349 2.21920 0.20832 0.50000 0.58251 0.08251
14 9.2 0.0349 2.21920 0.20832 0.53846 0.58251 0.04405
15 9.21 0.0387 2.22029 0.21255 0.57692 0.58416 0.00724
16 10.2 1.4085 2.32239 0.60980 0.61538 0.72900 0.11362
17 10.4 1.9232 2.34181 0.68535 0.65385 0.75344 0.09959
18 10.5 2.2106 2.35138 0.72259 0.69231 0.76503 0.07273
19 10.7 2.8453 2.37024 0.79600 0.73077 0.78698 0.05622
20 10.8 3.1927 2.37955 0.83220 0.76923 0.79735 0.02812
21 11 3.9474 2.39790 0.90359 0.80769 0.81689 0.00920
22 11.6 6.6915 2.45101 1.11024 0.84615 0.86655 0.02040
23 11.7 7.2189 2.45959 1.14364 0.88462 0.87361 0.01100
24 12.3 10.8031 2.50960 1.33822 0.92308 0.90959 0.01349
25 14.8 33.4871 2.69463 2.05815 0.96154 0.98021 0.01867
suma 225.3300 133.135
promedio 9.0132
Sx= 2.3553
Cv= 0.2613
MEDIA(ux) 2.1657
VARIANZA 0.2570
HIDROLOGIA

1.96000 0.97500 1.61000 0.94630 1.39000 0.91774
1.96697 0.97541 1.61365 0.94670 1.39051 0.91781
1.97000 0.97558 1.62000 0.94738 1.40000 0.91924
1.14000 0.87286 0.96000 0.83147 0.96000 0.83147

1.14338 0.87356 0.96782 0.83343 0.96782 0.83343
1.15000 0.87493 0.97000 0.83398 0.97000 0.83398
0.58000 0.71904 0.58000 0.71904 0.58000 0.71904

0.58659 0.72126 0.58659 0.72126 0.58659 0.72126
0.59000 0.72240 0.59000 0.72240 0.59000 0.72240
0.43000 0.66640 0.33000 0.62930 0.23000 0.59095

0.43399 0.66785 0.33548 0.63137 0.23940 0.59460
0.44000 0.67003 0.34000 0.63307 0.24000 0.59483
0.20000 0.57926 0.20000 0.57926 0.21000 0.58317

0.20832 0.58251 0.20832 0.58251 0.21255 0.58416
0.21000 0.58317 0.21000 0.58317 0.22000 0.58706
0.60000 0.72575 0.68000 0.75175 0.72000 0.76424

0.60980 0.72900 0.68535 0.75344 0.72259 0.76503
0.61000 0.72907 0.69000 0.75490 0.73000 0.76730
0.79000 0.78524 0.83000 0.79673 0.90000 0.81594

0.79600 0.78698 0.83220 0.79735 0.90359 0.81689
0.80000 0.78814 0.84000 0.79955 0.91000 0.81859
1.11000 0.86650 0.14000 0.55567 1.33000 0.90824

1.11024 0.86655 1.14364 0.87361 1.33822 0.90959
1.12000 0.86864 1.15000 0.87493 1.34000 0.90988
2.05000 0.97982
2.05815 0.98021
2.06000 0.98030
F ( x)  P( x)   S  K
0.11362  0.27
confiable
HIDROLOGIA
Y  uY
Zi 
Y F(x) z
0.95994 1.75
1
p( x  a)  1   0.96 0.96 1.7507
25 0.9608 1.76
uY  2.1657
 y  0.2570
ln(Q)  2.1657
1.7507 
0.2570
Q25  13.68m / s
3
1
p( x  a)  1   98
50
F(x) z
ln(Q )  2.1657 0.97982 2.05
2.05375  0.98 2.05375
0.2570
0.98030 2.06
Q50  14.78m / s
3
1
p( x  a)  1   99
100 F(x) z
0.98983 2.32
ln(Q)  2.1657
2.3263  0.99 2.3263
0.2570
0.99010 2.33
Q100  15.86m3 / s
1
p( x  a)  1   9950
200 F(x) z
0.99492 2.57
ln(Q)  2.1657
2.5757  0.995 2.5757
0.2570
0.99506 2.58
Q200  16.91m3 / s
HIDROLOGIA
ANALISIS DE CONFIABILIDAD DE INFORMACION ESTADISTICO S-K
PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS
ESTACION: PUCARA LAT: 06°02’30” DPTO: CAJAMARCA

CATEGORIA: “PLU” LONG: 79°08’02” PROV: JAEN
ALT: 1061.6msnm DIST: PUCARA
HIDROLOGIA
HIDROLOGIA
INFORMACION PLUVIOMETRICA
PRECIPITACIONES (mm)
Máxima en 24 Horas
ESTACION: PUCARA LAT.: 06°02'30'' DEPTO: CAJAMARCA

LONG.: 79°08'02'' PROV: JAEN
CATEGORIA: "PLU" ALT.: 1061.6 msnm DIST.: PUCARA
AÑO ENERO FEBRERO MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOSTO SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE DICIEMBRE Precip.máx.
1 1995 2.7 10.6 10.6 20.1 4.0 0.5 10.3 0.6 2.5 10.0 20.2 23.6 23.6
2 1996 9.5 10.4 40.7 22.1 4.5 10.3 0.0 1.3 10.3 20.7 20.7 11.8 40.7
3 1997 10.4 12.0 5.7 11.7 4.4 3.6 4.0 1.4 2.7 7.5 10.1 2.6 12.0
4 1998 17.2 50.4 30.2 30.5 20.4 7.9 0.0 5.3 60.1 40.8 30.3 11.8 60.1
5 1999 37.6 32.0 20.6 10.9 28.2 7.1 2.1 0.7 20.6 6.5 26.5 30.4 37.6
6 2000 20.5 70.5 10.1 35.9 14.1 10.2 1.8 4.6 20.5 2.6 10.4 12.7 70.5
7 2001 50.6 55.8 50.0 11.0 40.3 2.1 5.1 0.0 20.9 50.6 32.8 14.9 55.8
8 2002 19.6 8.3 14.6 30.2 18.4 4.5 10.1 0.0 1.3 40.6 17.8 11.4 40.6
9 2003 11.3 24.3 30.2 10.2 10.6 10.5 2.2 2.5 10.1 61.3 30.1 20.9 61.3
10 2004 10.7 20.0 10.9 50.1 10.4 2.4 7.9 0.0 31.4 20.4 28.3 40.1 50.1
11 2005 4.0 50.2 40.2 20.9 9.1 3.2 0.1 10.3 11.6 12.0 10.3 22.7 50.2
12 2006 0.0
13 2007 47.2 10.2 44.0 21.8 16.5 1.1 3.1 7.8 5.3 45.6 60.7 26.4 60.7
14 2008 35.3 30.6 27.7 20.9 15.4 9.5 3.3 11.6 4.0 40.2 52.5 19.2 52.5
15 2009 53.1 17.7 28.9 25.3 3.5 2.8 3.1 8.1 2.5 39.7 11.7 20.4 53.1
16 2010 7.1 38.0 45.1 12.5 8.2 3.6 0.3 2.2 7.1 42.6 9.2 27.6 45.1
17 2011 20.6 23.4 25.4 30.4 15.8 0.6 3.3 0.8 9.2 31.8 22.0 23.1 31.8
18 2012 11.9 21.0 30.4 39.8 12.6 1.7 0.8 0.5 1.0 28.3 27.6 24.7 39.8
19 2013 15.0 12.7 28.2 6.1 47.5 1.3 1.5 13.9 2.4 20.4 28.0 14.0 47.5
HIDROLOGIA
ANALISIS DE DISTRIBUCION NORMAL
m Qmax (xi-X)2 P(x) Z F(x) F(x)-P(x)

1 12.0 1174.966 0.05263 -2.38903 0.00844 0.04419
2 23.6 514.282 0.10526 -1.58055 0.05699 0.04828
3 31.8 209.606 0.15789 -1.00904 0.15648 0.00141
4 37.6 75.304 0.21053 -0.60481 0.27265 0.06213
5 39.8 41.962 0.26316 -0.45148 0.32583 0.06267
6 40.6 32.237 0.31579 -0.39572 0.34616 0.03037
7 40.7 31.112 0.36842 -0.38875 0.34873 0.01969
8 45.1 1.387 0.42105 -0.08209 0.46728 0.04623
9 47.5 1.494 0.47368 0.08518 0.53395 0.06027
10 50.1 14.609 0.52632 0.26639 0.60503 0.07871
11 50.2 15.384 0.57895 0.27336 0.60772 0.02877
12 52.5 38.716 0.63158 0.43366 0.74093 0.10935
13 53.1 46.543 0.68421 0.47548 0.68277 0.00144
14 55.8 90.673 0.73684 0.66366 0.74654 0.00970
15 60.1 191.054 0.78947 0.96335 0.83231 0.04283
16 60.7 208.000 0.84211 1.00517 0.84259 0.00048
17 61.3 225.667 0.89474 1.04699 0.85244 0.04229
18 70.5 586.716 0.94737 1.68819 0.95424 0.00687
SUMA 833.0 3499.7
PROMEDIO 46.278
Sx 14.348
18
suma   Xi  833m3 / s
x 1
18
X i
833
promedio  x 1
  46.278m3 / s
18 18
25 _
 ( xi  x) 2
3499.7
Sx  x 1
  14.348
n 1 17
HIDROLOGIA
Tabla de interpolaciones
2.38 0.99134 1.58 0.94295 1 0.84134
2.38903 0.99156 1.58055 0.94301 1.00904 0.84352
2.39 0.99158 1.59 0.94408 1.01 0.84375
0.6 0.72575 0.45 0.67364 0.39 0.65173

0.60481 0.72735 0.45148 0.67417 0.39572 0.65384
0.61 0.72907 0.46 0.67724 0.4 0.65542
0.38 0.64803 0.08 0.53188 0.08 0.53188

0.38875 0.65127 0.08209 0.53272 0.08518 0.53395
0.39 0.65173 0.09 0.53588 0.09 0.53588
0.26 0.60257 0.27 0.60642 0.43 0.6664

0.26639 0.60503 0.27336 0.60772 0.43366 0.74093
0.27 0.60642 0.28 0.61028 0.44 0.87003
0.47 0.68082 0.66 0.74537 0.96 0.83147

0.47548 0.68277 0.66366 0.74654 0.96335 0.83231
0.48 0.68438 0.67 0.74857 0.97 0.83397
1.000 0.84134 1.04 0.85083 1.68 0.95352

1.00517 0.84259 1.04699 0.85244 1.68819 0.95424
1.01 0.84375 1.05 0.85314 1.69 0.9544
Prueba de bondad de ajuste Smirnov-Kolmogorov
max  F ( x)  P( x)
Siendo:
 max : Estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorov
F(x): probabilidad de la distribución de ajustes o teoría
P(X): probabilidad experimental o empírica de los datos (frecuencia acumulada)
Tabla
HIDROLOGIA

18 0.31
F ( x)  P( x)   S  K
0.10935  0.31
confiable
xi  x
Zi 
Sx F(x) z
0.95994 1.75
1
p( x  a)  1   0.96 0.96 1.7507
25 0.9608 1.76
P  46.278
1.7507 
14.348
P25  71.397mm
1
p( x  a)  1   98
50
F(x) z
P  46.278 0.97982 2.05
2.5375  0.98 2.05375
14.348
P50  75.75mm 0.98030 2.06
HIDROLOGIA
1
p( x  a)  1   99
100 F(x) z
0.98983 2.32
P  46.278
2.3263  0.99 2.3263
14.348
0.99010 2.33
P100  79.6558mm
1
p( x  a)  1   9950
200 F(x) z
0.99492 2.57
p  46.278
2.5757  0.995 2.5757
14.348
0.99506 2.58
p200  83.2341mm
PROBABILIDAD DE OCURRENCIA PARA P( P  10mm)
P(Q  10mm)
xi  x z f(x)
Z
 2.52000 0.99413
2.52842 0.99427
xi  46.278
Z 2.53 0.99430
14.348
10  46.278
Zi   2.52842
14.348
F ( z )  1  F ( z )
F ( z )  1  0.99427
F ( z )  0.00573
F ( z )  0.57%
HIDROLOGIA
PROBABILIDAD DE OCURRENCIA PARA P(Q  20mm)
20  46.278 z f(x)
Zi   1.83146
14.348 1.83000 0.96638
1.83146 0.96648
1.84 0.96712
F ( z )  1  F ( z )
F ( z )  1  0.96648
F ( z )  0.03352
F ( z )  3.35%
30  46.278
Zi   1.1345 z f(x)
14.348 1.13 0.87076
F ( z )  1  F ( z ) 1.1345 0.87171
F ( z )  1  0.87171 1.14 0.87286
F ( z )  0.03352
F ( z )  12.83%
40  46.278 z f(x)
Zi   0.43754
14.348 0.43 0.66640
F ( z )  1  F ( z ) 0.43754 0.66914
F ( z )  1  0.66914 0.44 0.67003
F ( z )  0.33086
F ( z )  33.1%
HIDROLOGIA
ANALISIS DE CONFIABILIDAD DE DISTRIBUCION LOG NORMAL 2 PARAMETROS
DATOS
18
suma   xi  833m3 / s
x 1
18
X i
833
promedio  x 1
  46.2778m3 / s
18 18
25 _
 ( xi  x) 2
3499.7111
Sx  x 1
  14.348
n 1 17
y  uy
z
y
SX 14.348
X 46.2778
VARIANZA:
 Y 2  ln(1  Cv2 )
 Y  ln(1  0.312 )
 Y  0.3030
Yi=ln(xi)
F ( z )  1  F ( z )
m
P( x) 
n 1
HIDROLOGIA

1 12.0 1174.9660 2.48491 -4.30382 0.05263 0.00001 0.05262
2 23.6 514.2816 3.16125 -2.07135 0.10526 0.01916 0.08610
3 31.8 209.6060 3.45947 -1.08698 0.15789 0.13852 0.01937
4 37.6 75.3038 3.62700 -0.53396 0.21053 0.29668 0.08616
5 39.8 41.9616 3.68387 -0.34627 0.26316 0.36457 0.10141
6 40.6 32.2372 3.70377 -0.28058 0.31579 0.38952 0.07373
7 40.7 31.1116 3.70623 -0.27246 0.36842 0.39263 0.02421
8 45.1 1.3872 3.80888 0.06638 0.42105 0.52646 0.10541
9 47.5 1.4938 3.86073 0.23752 0.47368 0.59387 0.12019
10 50.1 14.6094 3.91402 0.41343 0.52632 0.66035 0.13404
11 50.2 15.3838 3.91602 0.42001 0.57895 0.66276 0.08381
12 52.5 38.7160 3.96081 0.56788 0.63158 0.71494 0.08336
13 53.1 46.5427 3.97218 0.60539 0.68421 0.72754 0.04333
14 55.8 90.6727 4.02177 0.76910 0.73684 0.77908 0.04224
15 60.1 191.0538 4.09601 1.01414 0.78947 0.84474 0.05527
16 60.7 208.0005 4.10594 1.04693 0.84211 0.85243 0.01033
17 61.3 225.6672 4.11578 1.07940 0.89474 0.85979 0.03494
18 70.5 586.7160 4.25561 1.54096 0.94737 0.93834 0.00903
suma 833.0 3499.7111
promedio 46.2778
Sx 14.3480
Cv= 0.3100
MEDIA(uy) 3.7888
VARIANZA 0.3030
HIDROLOGIA
DISTRIBUCION PARA CADA VALOR DE Z

4.30000 0.99999 2.07000 0.98077 1.08000 0.85993
4.30382 0.99999 2.07135 0.98084 1.08698 0.86148
4.40000 0.99999 2.08000 0.98124 1.09000 0.86214
0.53000 0.70194 0.34000 0.63307 0.28000 0.61026

0.53396 0.70332 0.34627 0.63543 0.28058 0.61048
0.54000 0.70540 0.35000 0.63683 0.29000 0.61409
0.27000 0.60642 0.06000 0.52392 0.23000 0.59095

0.27246 0.60737 0.06638 0.52646 0.23752 0.59387
0.28000 0.61026 0.07000 0.52790 0.24000 0.59483
0.41000 0.65910 0.42000 0.66276 0.56000 0.71226

0.41343 0.66035 0.42001 0.66276 0.56788 0.71494
0.42000 0.66276 0.43000 0.66640 0.57000 0.71566
0.60000 0.72575 0.76000 0.77637 1.01000 0.84375

0.60539 0.72754 0.76910 0.77908 1.01414 0.84474
0.61000 0.72907 0.77000 0.77935 1.02000 0.84614
1.04000 0.85083 1.07000 0.85769 1.54000 0.93822

1.04693 0.85243 1.07940 0.85979 1.54096 0.93834
1.05000 0.85314 1.08000 0.85993 1.55000 0.93943
F ( x)  P( x)   S  K
0.13404  0.27
confiable
HIDROLOGIA
Y  uY
Zi 
Y F(x) z
0.95994 1.75
1
p( x  a)  1   0.96 0.96 1.7507
25 0.9608 1.76
uY  3.7888
 y  0.3030
ln( P)  3.7888
1.7507 
0.3030
P25  75.13mm
1
p( x  a)  1   98
50
F(x) z
ln( P)  3.7888 0.97982 2.05
2.05375  0.98 2.05375
0.3030
P50  82.36mm 0.98030 2.06
1
p( x  a)  1   99
100 F(x) z
0.98983 2.32
ln( P)  3.7888
2.3263  0.99 2.3263
0.3030
0.99010 2.33
P50  89.45mm
HIDROLOGIA
1
p( x  a)  1   9950
200 F(x) z
0.99492 2.57
ln( P)  3.7888
2.5757  0.995 2.5757
0.3030
0.99506 2.58
P50  96.47mm
Y  uY
Zi 
Y
ln(10)  3.7888
Zi   4.906
0.3030
F(z)=0%
ln(20)  3.7888 z f(x)

Zi   2.618
0.3030 2.61 0.99547
F ( z )  1  0.99557 2.618 0.99557
F ( z )  0.00443 2.62 0.99560
F ( z )  0.44%
ln(30)  3.7888
Zi   1.279 z f(x)
0.3030
1.27 0.89796
F ( z )  1  0.89796 1.279 0.89961
F ( z )  0.10204 1.28 0.89973
F ( z )  10.2%
HIDROLOGIA
ln(40)  3.7888
Zi   0.33
0.3030
F ( z )  1  0.6293
F ( z )  0.3707
F ( z )  37.1%
HIDROLOGIA

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“UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL PEDRO RUIZ GALLO”

Facultad de Ingeniería Civil, de Sistemas y Arquitectura

DESARROLLO DE APLICAION EN CLASE

RIO CHUNCHUCA –CUENCA DE CUNCHUCA

m Qmax Qmin Qmed

ANÁLISIS PARA CAUDAL MÁXIMO

m Qmax (x-X)2 p(x) z f(z) If(z)-P(x)I

1.12 0.86864 1.09 0.86214 0.91 0.81859

0.4 0.65542 0.29 0.61409 0.24 0.59483

0.16 0.56356 0.32 0.62551 0.37 0.64431

0.39 0.65173 0.44 0.67003 0.45 0.67364

0.53 0.70104 0.59 0.7224 0.67 0.74857

0.71 0.76115 0.74 0.77035 1.12 0.86864

1.19 0.88297 1.29 0.90147 1.42 0.92219

Prueba de bondad de ajuste Smirnov-Kolmogorov

 max : Estadístico Smirnov-Kolmogorov

F(x): probabilidad de la distribución de ajustes o teoría

P(X): probabilidad experimental o empírica de los datos (frecuencia acumulada)

Tamaño de Nivel de significancia

TIEMPOS DE RETORNO DE 25, 50, 100, 200 AÑOS

TIEMPO DE RETORNO PARA 25 AÑOS.

TIEMPO DE RETORNO PARA 50 AÑOS.

TIEMPO DE RETORNO PARA 100 AÑOS.

TIEMPO DE RETORNO PARA 200AÑOS.

DETERMINACIÓN DE LA PROBABILIDAD DE OCURRENCIA

PROBABILIDAD DE OCURRENCIA PARA P(Q  150m3 s)

PROBABILIDAD DE OCURRENCIA PARA P(Q  250m3 s)

PROBABILIDAD DE OCURRENCIA PARA P(Q  350m3 s)

ANALISIS DE CONFIABILIAD DE DISTRIBUCION LOG NORMAL 2 PARAMETROS

EXPRESIONES UTILES PARA ESTIMAR PARAMETROS

DISTRIBUCION LOG NORMAL 2 PARAMETROS

DISTRIBUCION NORMAL PARA CADA VALOR DE Z

Z F(Z) Z F(Z) Z F(Z)

1.38000 0.91621 1.17000 0.87900 1.13000 0.87076

0.91000 0.81859 0.34000 0.63307 0.21000 0.58317

0.17000 0.56749 0.25000 0.59871 0.40000 0.65542

0.44000 0.67003 0.47000 0.68082 0.51000 0.69497

0.52000 0.69847 0.60000 0.72575 0.65000 0.74215

0.72000 0.76424 0.76000 0.77637 0.79000 0.78524

1.11000 0.86650 1.17000 0.87900 1.26000 0.89617

TAMAÑO DE MUESTRA N=25 PARA   0.05   S  K  0.27

TIEMPOS DE RETORNO DE 25, 50, 100, 200 AÑOS

TIEMPO DE RETORNO PARA 25 AÑOS.

TIEMPO DE RETORNO PARA 50 AÑOS.

TIEMPO DE RETORNO PARA 100 AÑOS.

TIEMPO DE RETORNO PARA 200AÑOS.

DETERMINACIÓN DE LA PROBABILIDAD DE OCURRENCIA

PROBABILIDAD DE OCURRENCIA PARA P(Q  150m3 s)

PROBABILIDAD DE OCURRENCIA PARA P(Q  250m3 s)

ln(250)  5.1333 z F(z)

F ( z )  98.9% 2.3 0.9892759

PROBABILIDAD DE OCURRENCIA PARA P(Q  350m3 s)

ln(350)  5.1333 z f(z)

ANALISIS DE CAUDAL MEDIO

m Qmedi (x-X)2 p(x) z f(z) f(z)-P(x)

1.2 0.88493 0.56 0.71226 0.13 0.55172

1.32 0.90658 0.53 0.70104 0.55 0.70884

1.12 0.87285 0.5 0.69146 0.56 0.71226

1.06 0.85543 0.23 0.59095 0.56 0.71226

0.96 0.83147 0.4 0.65542 0.76 0.77637

0.68 0.75175 0.14 0.55567 0.9 0.81594

1.09 0.86214 1.28 0.89973 0.91 0.81859

1.79 0.96327 2.33 0.99010

Tamaño de Nivel de significancia