Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Abstract—Recently, the incentive to improve transformer like oil viscosity [7] and environment factors [8].
utilization driven by increasing power demands and financial Previous studies have considered several influencing and
pressure of new equipment investment is more and more strong. limiting factors of overload strategy making. Arrhenius-
Existing study focus on overloading constraints like hottest-spot Weibull model is proposed to calculate real-time failure rate
temperature (HST) and failure rate, but the transformer
operation risk is rarely considered in overload strategy making.
and failure probability of transformers by J. He [9]. D. Feng
This paper firstly proposes an operation risk analytical method utilizes the insulating paper samples of scrapped transformers
of oil-immersed transformers, to evaluate the transformer loss, and the degree of polymerization (DP) to correct the heat
power grid enterprise loss and society loss during overloading. conduction model [10]. Overload strategy of both transmission
Considering the operation risk, a two-stage overload strategy is and transformation equipment is studied by Y. Huang,
presented. In stage 1, the security constraints including HST, considering HST limit and failure rate limit, respectively [11].
failure rate and the proposed risk are discussed to obtain a An economic life assessment of transformer is proposed by J.
preliminary strategy; in stage 2, benefits and costs of overloading Wang [12], which can be utilized in overload strategy making.
are calculated to analyze the economy of strategies between Transformer operation risk has attracted lots of attention [13-
preliminary strategy and full-loading, and the profit-optimal
strategy will be chosen as the final strategy. The validity of
16]. Loss of life and dielectric failure risk is proposed by W. Fu
proposed overload strategy and influence of transformer service [13]. Data of loss life is used to assess the aging risk of
time on strategy making is demonstrated through case study. transformer [14]. By using dissolved gas analysis (DGA) as an
indicator, a transformer risk assessment method is developed
Index Terms—Transformer, operation risk, overload strategy, for power system in Latvia [15]. The effects of meteorological
economy. risk and equipment health risk on transmission section are
analyzed by H. Qian [16]. However, these risk researches do
I. INTRODUCTION not take the impact of risk on transformer overload strategy
In recent years, driven by the increasing power demand and into consideration.
reluctance to invest new equipment, it is of great significance The main contributions of this paper are summarized below:
to formulate an overload strategy for transformers to ensure Proposing a transformer operation risk index that integrates
that the transformers can be fully, but safely utilized [1]. transformer loss, power grid enterprise loss and society loss,
Besides, the improvement of transformers utilization can bring covering most possible impacts of overloading.
many benefits, such as environment protection, resource A two-stage strategy is designed to ensure both security and
conservation and cost reduction for power grid enterprises. economy of transformer overloading: taking HST limit,
Early study on overload strategy of transformer is focused failure rate limit and risk limit into consideration to ensure
on calculation of transformer hottest-spot temperature (HST), the security of overload strategy; optimizing the strategy to
which is generally considered to limit the load capacity of obtain more profit for power grid enterprise.
transformer and influence the insulation aging speed. HST is The rest of the paper is organized as follows: section II
the worst (highest) temperature that the insulation of establishes transformer operation risk model. A two-stage
transformer winding suffer. Common HST calculation models overload strategy is then discussed in section III. The
include heat conduction model (IEEE model [2] and IEC calculation results from an ONAF transformer are shown in
model [3]) and thermal circuit model [4]. The former model is section IV. Finally, the conclusion is drawn in section V.
widely used in real-time calculation of HST [5-6], the latter II. OPERATION RISK OF OIL-IMMERSED TRANSFORMER
model can be improved by considering various practical factors
During overloading, the HST of transformer will increase
This work is supported by the National high technology research and
rapidly and be much worse than normal condition which results
development program (863 Program) (2015AA050204), State grid technology in several negative impacts on transformer, power grid
project (520626150032). enterprise and society. Due to the uncertainty of ambient
temperature and load, the uncertain HST variation is hard to be
Since load rate and ambient temperature is uncertain [13], te t FAA H te (8)
probabilistic models to describe these variables and HST where β is the shape parameter, B and C are empirical
should be established [18]. constants, θ0 is the reference HST, factor of aging acceleration
1) Distribution of working condition FAA under θ0 describes the influence of HST on aging speed, ti
The load rate and ambient temperature in the future can be is an operation period where the HST is θH(ti), ∆te is the ILL
acquired from load and weather forecasting. There are always over short operation time ∆t.
errors in forecasting results. In this paper, it is assumed that In this paper, three impacts of overloading are considered:
both uncertainties can be described by a normal distribution, loss of transformer, power grid enterprise and society.
and the forecasting values are expected as mean values of the 1) Transformer loss
distribution. Transformer loss consists of ILL and dielectric loss. If a
2) Relevance between the load and ambient temperature transformer is operated at overloading state, on the one hand,
Load rate is usually relevant to environment factors. For the HST is worse than θ0 and FAA will exceed the normal
instance, the peak loads in summer usually occur on the hottest value. On the other hand, the failure probability of dielectric
hours. will increase, and dielectric failure leads to maintenance or
According to the above characteristic, it is assumed that the transformer replacing. The ILL and dielectric loss are
distribution of load and ambient temperature is multivariate respectively denoted by SILL and SDL, expressed as
normal, which can be obtained by two steps: FAA( H )t (9)
Step-1: For moment i, one sampling can be obtained with S ILL PT
NIL
a (i ) X fa (i ) t
K A (1) S DL e PT 0 1 (10)
NIL
(i ) Y K f (i )
where PT is the price of transformer, NIL is the normal
where θa(i) and K(i) represent the sampling value of ambient
insulation life of transformer, and α is the maintenance factor.
temperature and load rate at moment i, θfa(i) and Kf(i) represent
2) Power grid enterprise and society loss
the forecasting value of ambient temperature and load at
Once transformer fails at moment i, the power grid
moment i, X and Y are independent random variables of normal
enterprise and consumers will suffer sales revenue loss and
distribution [18], A is a matrix generated by
economical loss over power restoration time TR. These two
AAT COV ( fa , K f ) (2) losses are denoted by SPGEL and SSL, expressed as
where COV(θfa, Kf) is the covariance matrix of forecasting N R i
Stage-1: Security Constraints where θfH(i) represents the HST calculated under forecasting
Initial HST limit working condition on moment i, P0 and Pk are respectively no-
overload
Failure rate limit
load loss and rated-load loss of transformer.
strategy
In stage 2, searching the profit-optimal strategy between the
Operation risk limit
preliminary strategy and full-loading operation by analyzing
Stage-2: Economy Optimization
the overloading profit. The main steps of stage 2 are described
Benifits Costs Preliminary overload as follows:
strategy
max Profit
Step2-1: Calculate and record the benefit, costs and profit
of current strategy (The first strategy is preliminary strategy).
Final overload Step2-2: Judge the load rate of the current strategy, if the
strategy
transformer is not close to full-loading enough, turn to step2-3;
Fig. 1 Flow chart of two-stage overload strategy else, decrease the load rate with a small step size to update the
A. Stage-1: Security Constraints current strategy, and turn to the step2-1.
Step2-3: Among all strategies between preliminary strategy
In stage 1, if the security constraints in initial strategy are and full-loading operation, choose the profit-optimal strategy
violated, the load rate will be decreased to ensure overloading as the final strategy.
security, and preliminary strategy can be acquired. The main
In the two-stage strategy, both security and economy are
steps of stage 1 are described as follows and some coefficients
taken into consideration.
involved in iterations are shown in table I.
TABLE I. ITERATION COEFFICIENTS IV. CASE STUDY
Coefficients Denotation In this section, the proposed two-stage stategy is applied to
h Iterative step size
a certain scenario shown in Fig. 2, to make decision for
transformer overloading operation.
μ Load reduction ratio Transformer 1
Breaker 1
ε Termination criterion
Load
Transformer 2
Step1-1: The IEEE model is applied to calculate the Breaker 2
deterministic trend of transformer HST and failure rate
according to forecasting working condition. Fig. 2 Case scenario
Step1-2: Obtain the probabilistic distribution of HST, In this scenario, the load is supplied by two transformers,
calculate operation risk and risk limit. but transformer 2 needs to be out of service at some time,
Step1-3: For each constraint, compare the actual value with continuing for 4 hours (TEAO). An overload decision is needed
the limit, obtain the shortest allowed time as the allowed for transformer 1 (cooling type is ONAF). For sake of
overloading time TAO. simplicity, the following assumptions are made:
Step1-4: Compare TAO and expected allowed overloading The power factor is always 0.9.
time TEAO: if 0<TAO - TEAO<ε, turn to stage 2; if TAO - TEAO>ε, The sampling deviation of working condition does not
h=h/2, μ=μ-h; else, μ=μ+h. Turn to step1-5. exceed 10% of forecating value.
Step1-5: Decrease the load, K = (1-μ)Kf, turn to step1-1. According to history data of consumers economic loss at
B. Stage-2: Economy Optimization power outage [19], CSL(t)= 41.5ln(t+30.19)-187.1 ($).
Other detailed information and parameters of transformer 1,
In traditional overload strategy, an important factor, IEEE model and Arrhenius-Weibull model are shown in table
economy, is rarely considered. Overloading economy, in this II, III and IV, and the load rate curves are shown in Fig. 3.
paper, is decribed as profit (Profit) of power grid enterprise
during overloading. And the objective function of economy TABLE II. BASIC PARAMETERS OF TRANSFORMER 1
optimization in stage 2 is expressed as NIL(years) CR(MVA) P0 (kW) Pk(kW) PT($) te(years)
max Profit Benefit Cost1 Cost 2 (15) 20 50 35. 2 184.3 4.3×106 10
Fig. 6 The final variation tendencies of four types risk during overloading