Business Travel Market Metrics A Global Analysis of Business 3710

Business Travel Market Metrics
A Global Analysis of Business Travel Activity
August 2009
1 CONFIDENTIAL FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY

Table of Contents
Introduction: How Big and Influential Is the Activity We Call Business Travel?..................................................................... 2
Approach, Methodology, Data Sources, and Definitions ........................................................................................................ 4
Global Business Travel Analysis............................................................................................................................................. 7
Global Summary.................................................................................................................................................................. 8
Business Travel's Contribution to Industries Around the Globe........................................................................................ 12
Global Business Travel Outlook ........................................................................................................................................ 15
World Economic Outlook Summary ............................................................................................................................. 15
The Outlook for the Top 20 Global Travel Markets ...................................................................................................... 28
U.S Business Travel Market.................................................................................................................................................. 89
U.S. Business Travel Forecast.............................................................................................................................................. 96
U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook............................................................................................................................................ 96
Business Travel Overview ................................................................................................................................................. 98
Business Travel under alternative scenarios................................................................................................................... 105
Business Travel with oil prices of $100 per barrel........................................................................................................... 107
Business Travel Survey ...................................................................................................................................................... 109
The Economic Impact of U.S. Business Travel................................................................................................................... 116
The Top Line: Total U.S. Business Travel Industry Spending ....................................................................................... 117
Economic Impact of the U.S. Business Travel industry .................................................................................................. 118
Value added Impact of the U.S. Business Travel industry .............................................................................................. 119
Income Impact of the U.S. Business Travel industry ...................................................................................................... 120
Employment Impact of the U.S. Business Travel industry .............................................................................................. 121
Tax Impact of the U.S. Business Travel industry ............................................................................................................ 123
U.S. Business Traveler Profile ............................................................................................................................................ 124
Overview.......................................................................................................................................................................... 124
The Top Line: Person-Stayes and Spending ................................................................................................................. 125
Business Travel by Mode of Transportation.................................................................................................................... 127
Business Travel Spending Profile ................................................................................................................................... 128
Business Travel Accommodations .................................................................................................................................. 129
Who is the Typical Business Traveler? ........................................................................................................................... 131
1 IHS Global Insight / National Business Travel Association / Egencia August 2009
Introduction: How Big and Influential Is the Activity We Call Business Travel?
Business travel is a term that encompasses many activities and purposes. It includes trips taken
on behalf of sales, operations management, educational advancement, social responsibility &
charitable works, and performance rewards. Moreover, the activity of business travel is viewed in
different ways by different actors. Travel suppliers see it as a significant source of revenue and
primary market segment. Corporate management sees it as both a principal business input and a
controllable expense. Travel Buyers and Managers view it as an optimization challenge. Policymakers (should) see it as
a generator of jobs, income, and tax revenue -albeit an underappreciated one. Finally, veteran business travelers view it
as an important part of their daily lives.
For all its definitions and purposes, the activity of business travel lacks a comprehensive and coherent description.
Clearly, information and metrics concerning business travel's size & growth, economic contribution, and traveler behavior
would benefit all of the actors mentioned above. Unfortunately, there is no definitive source for these metrics, one that
provides a comprehensive view of both the absolute and relative size of business travel activity.
The NBTA is the ideal organization to provide this critical foundation. Developing and distributing business travel
measures, examining issues, and detail emerging trends are all within the stated goals of the organization and are
consistent with member expectations.
To aid this effort, IHS Global Insight has developed measures of the current global market for business travel,
analyzed its historical trends, and created a projection through 2013. A separate and more detailed view of the
US business travel market was also provided. Next, the economic contribution or impact of business travel was
estimated for the U.S. Finally, a comprehensive profile of the US business traveler provides a detailed analysis
of travel incidence, spending, and behavior.
This report presents the results of our findings and the storylines behind them. IHS Global Insight has created a
report covering the all-important demand side of the business travel market. Metrics covering business travel volume, trip
behavior, spending, and costs have been combined with a complete profile of the U.S. business traveler. Clearly, supply
side measures (e.g. air & hotel revenue) are an important part of the process, but it is the development of comprehensive
measures of the demand side of business travel that make this research initiative unique.
The report also describes business travel's place in the global economy –what drives it, which sectors participate and at
what levels, and how it has changed over time. Importantly, the process by which these business travel measures have
been created can be refreshed on (at least) an annual basis so that ongoing monitoring of the business travel market is
possible. Consequently, this report can perhaps be envisioned as an "annual report on the state of global business
travel".
Travel managers, buyers, and suppliers will all benefit from the research findings. Informing marketing strategy, assisting
resource allocation and prioritization, and benchmarking travel programs/policies are all potential applications of this
research effort. Moreover, policymakers and citizens can both benefit from a better understanding of the size and
contribution that business travel makes to job creation, income generation, and tax receipts in the U.S.
Examples of highlights and implications include:
•Business travel is becoming more global. Travel managers should be increasingly thinking in terms of global
programs and policies.
•High-growth markets (such as China, India, and the Middle East) should be a key part of strategies going
forward.
•The recession that began in earnest late in 2008 will make for a very difficult 2009. The global recovery will
begin late in 2009, however, and gather momentum in 2010 and 2011. Global business travel will decline by
nearly 15% in 2009, but the next two years will bring slow and steady improvement (+1% and +4%, respectively).
This is a good time to re-evaluate strategies, programs, and policies so that you are better positioned to take
advantage of the coming recovery.
•The rates of recovery from the current recession will vary in each country. Travel managers should leverage the
market-specific projections to better prioritize market activity and resource allocation during next 18 months
•There are substantial opportunities for travel management to address the 46% of business travel spend that is
outside of air, hotel, and rental cars.
•Industry sectors with high Travel-Spend-per-Sales-Dollar, such as real estate, government, utilities and
professional services, stand to save the most from managed travel activities.
•The productivity of business travel has grown dramatically over the past decade. More and better travel
management methods, technology alternatives and compliments, more dense and efficient trips, and slower
increases in travel costs (relative to wages and other inputs) are among the reasons.
•Although business travel is becoming more productive, it is still a significant portion of company spend. On
average in the U.S., business travel comprises about:
o 1 cent of every sales dollar
o 2.3 cents of each dollar of cost (including wages)
o 5 cents of each dollar of gross operating profit
•How much does business travel contribute to the U.S. economy? It is responsible for supporting over 4 million
U.S. jobs, generating $188 billion in wages, and $80 billion in federal, state, and local taxes. One in 30 U.S.
workers owes his/her job to business travel activity. If business travel were viewed as an industry, it would be the
13th largest in the country (Healthcare is #1). Policymakers should fully consider the repricussions of legislation or
regulation that hinders business travel activity.
• American business travelers are typically between the ages of 35 and 54 years old. They are married (76%),
and have no children living in their households (60%). They most likely work in a managerial or professional
position (35%) and make an average yearly income of $78,700.
•Business travelers will usually drive to their destinations (60%). The most common destinations are Los Angeles
(3.79%), New York (3.05%), San Francisco (2.77%), or Chicago (2.64%). The specific purpose of a business trip
is quite broad, but is typically transient business (62%) involving sales/purchasing (11%) or group business
involving seminars/training (15%). The business traveler will make a reservation (83%) to stay at a high-end or
mid-level hotel (28% and 31%) usually pays with a credit card (63%).
• A business traveler will spend an average of $465 during their stay, mostly on transportation (37%) and food
(20%). Their trip will usually lasts three days or less (87%) when they will leave to go home to Los Angeles
(5.3%), New York (3.9%), or Dallas-Fort Worth (2.4%). A typical business trip will average 343 miles one-way.
Approach, Methodology, Data Sources, and Definitions
The overriding objective of this research initiative has been to create a process for developing
credible estimates of the size, growth, and contribution of business travel to companies,
industries, and countries around the world. Definitive and comprehensive measures simply do
not exist at this time. This process must obviously produce defensible results; ones that are
consistent with both the foundation data sources and any reputable aggregate or cross check
measures published by other recognized sources.
Once business travel measures have been generated, the intent is to return to this process periodically to monitor
changes over time. The key is to build a process that is both credible and repeatable, utilizing all appropriate data.
Updating the estimates of business travel activity requires re-executing this established process to reflect updates of the
integral data sources.
PRINCIPAL DATA SOURCES
Measuring the size, growth, and contribution of business travel is neither a simple or precise task. For one, data inputs
are relatively scarce, particularly outside the United States and certain Western European countries . Moreover, each
data source tends to tell only a portion of the business travel story. Detailed searches have uncovered no comprehensive
view of business travel volume or spending. Even in cases where travel metrics were available, they tended to cover
either total travel or leisure travel only.
Much of the supply-side data that we assembled during the research did not make the trip purpose distinction either. For
example, revenue and/or capacity metrics from, say, hotels or airlines generally do not distinguish a business traveler
from a leisure one -likewise, for rental cars and restaurants. This type of supply-side data provided many important sanity
checks but was insufficient to provide specific detailed insight that was additive towards a comprehensive view of
business travel activity.
The second most critical data sourcing problem was the inconsistency of definitions across sources. Promising datasets
that appeared to be ideal later proved to be less useful because of definitional inconsistencies surrounding industries,
geography, or what constituted business travel itself. Indeed, something as simple as a different definition of a business
trip sometimes thwarted attempts to use an otherwise robust data input. Obviously, the reconciliation of seemingly similar
sources was paramount in compiling our final estimates.
Our principal sources included:
¾ D.K. Shifflet & Associates Travel Panel – TRAVEL PERFORMANCE/MonitorSM
¾ A bespoke survey of financial management (CFOs & Controllers) at a representative sample of U.S. public and
private companies. Over 500 completed interviews captured information regarding travel & entertainment (T&E
spending, as well as the commitment to travel management programs, policies, and personnel.
¾ The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
¾ The U.S. Department of Commerce's Office of Travel & Tourism Industries
¾ The US Department of Transportation
¾ Smith Travel Research
¾ IPK International
¾ United Nations/World Tourism Organization (UN/WTO)
¾ National Input/Output Accounts for 48 of the 72 countries analyzed in the study (source: typically Ministry of
Commerce or Statistics)
¾ Various international government sources, including Ministries of Transportation, Tourism, and Commerce
¾ IHS Global Insight's US and International data, modeling assets, and industry expertise.
METHODOLOGY & APPROACH

IHS Global Insight assembled an extensive data repository from which to build estimates of global business travel activity.
The inventory of sources included many of the private and public datasets that are commonly used to describe economic
and travel industry performance in many contexts. Moreover, a comprehensive literature search provided a list of related
research efforts that helped guide the final development of our methodology in each phase of the project. Each phase
began with an effort to understand and reconcile the differences between and among the pertinent data sources.
The development of our global database of business travel spending by country (72) and industry (48) required that we
build a "sources and uses" view of the industries that both buy and sell travel services. That is, IHS Global Insight put
together a four-dimensional sectoral matrix of travel suppliers/sellers (rows) and travel buyers (columns), the 3rd and 4th
dimensions being time (1998-2008) and country. The values within each cell describe the sales of a seller's services (e.g.
Hotels) to each buying industry (e.g. Utilities). For example, Airlines constitute one of the critical seller rows. Across the
Airline row, each one of the 48 buying industries total purchases of airline tickets is compiled.
The data used to populate the cells in this matrix came from the National Input/Output Accounts from 48 of the 72
countries covered in the study. Generally, this data is part of the National Income Accounting framework of each country,
typically managed by the Ministry of Commerce or Statistics. Because of effort and expense, most of the countries
perform the integral survey and compilation efforts necessary to build these matrixes on an infrequent (usually every 2-5
years) basis. IHS Global Insight's World Industry Group executes an ongoing proprietary process to estimate the values
of the matrix for the interim years. For the 24 countries that lacked published input/output matrices, IHS Global Insight
assigned a matrix from a country with a similar physical, location, and industrial make-up.
These seller-dominant matrixes were then transposed to produce estimates of the amount that each buying sector (e.g.
business services) purchases from each travel supply sectors (airlines, hotels, rental cars, restaurants, retail,
entertainment, etc.) as a percentage of that buying sector's total annual sales. Adding each supplier sector together, IHS
Global Insight created an overall business travel "purchase coefficient" for each buying sector. These purchase
coefficients were then tracked over the period 1998-2008.
The derivation of IHS Global Insight's initial estimates of business travel spending required that we apply the business
travel purchase matrixes to published levels of total sales for each (buying) sector in each country. The total sales
database is a key asset of IHS Global Insight's World Industry Service. The World Industry Service also routinely
forecasts total sales by sector and country, a critical component to our business travel spending projections.
The final estimates of business travel spending by country and sector required that IHS Global Insight fold in other data
inputs covering total travel volume and spending in each country, where available. Countries such as the US, UK,
Germany and others were compared and adjusted according to sources such as the UN/WTO, DK Shifflet & Associates,
WTTC, and IPK International. Moreover, the Ministries of Tourism for some of the countries provide estimates of overall
travel, sometimes separated into leisure and business purposes. Where available and definitionally consistent, these
were used as important cross-checks.
In the U.S. Economic Impact of Business Travel section of the study, IHS Global Insight turned to our repository of
economic models and data for assistance in translating the contribution of business travel spending to businesses,
households, and governments. The spending streams created by domestic and outbound international business trips
were traced through the US economy and their downstream economic contributions to job creation, income generation,
and tax receipts were derived. Our model repository included the IMPLAN model, developed at the University of
Minnesota, and currently managed by the MIG Group. The IMPLAN model has fast become the defacto standard for U.S.
economic impact assessment among analysts, academia, and policy consultants. IHS Global Insight uses IMPLAN
extensively in its economic impact work on behalf of tourism destinations around the country.
DEFINITIONS
The resulting global travel database, forecasts, and report created from this research effort can be used to inform many
strategic and tactical decisions. Users among the travel manager, buyer, and supplier community should, however, be
sure of what the estimates do and do not include, particularly when comparing the findings to other external or internal
measures. In fact, during initial presentations of the results, IHS Global Insight fielded a similar set of definitional
questions that we thought deserved mention in this report.
The first definition is that of business travel itself. Our objective was to be as comprehensive as possible resulting in the
inclusion of all kinds of business trips and trip spending, including:
¾ Trips booked within and outside managed travel programs
¾ Daytrips and overnight trips
¾ Domestic and outbound international trips
¾ Trips on behalf of sales, operations, training, convention/meeting, maintenance/repair, incentive, and customer
service
¾ Trip spending includes all categories -air, hotel, rental car, other ground transportation, personal vehicles, food &
beverage, entertainment, and miscellaneous expenses.
Another important definitional note revolves around the use of U.S. dollars to represent business travel spending.
Comparison across countries required that local currencies be converted to US dollars using prevailing exchange rates
from IHS Global Insight's FOREX database. Moreover, all dollar values are expressed in current or nominal terms. This
means the effects of inflation are included in both the estimates of industry sales and business travel spending.
Global Business Travel Analysis
One of the principal outcomes of this research effort is a credible, comprehensive, and repeatable
set of measures describing business travel activity –by industry, by country, by job function and
over time. Where feasible, metrics such as business trip volume and spending have been
consistently developed across market segments in order to arrive at a dataset that can be used
to support any number of strategic, tactical, and policy decisions.
The nature and detail of the business travel metrics contained in this report and its accompanying
database are largely dictated by available data from both secondary and primary sources. Supplier-based information
from airlines, hotels, and rental car companies has been reconciled with demand-side sources from governments, traveler
research panels, and travel management companies in an effort to create the most comprehensive view of business
travel.
This section of the report will present our finds regarding the size and growth of global business travel. We will first
summarize the global picture, with U.S. business travel being described in a separate section of the report. This section
will provide business travel measures for seventy-one (71) other countries around the world.
What factors determine the size and growth of business travel activity? There are eight distinguishing characteristics that
influence the level and rate of growth of business travel in our analysis:
Size of the economy –the level of business activity is paramount of course, as is its growth trajectory.
Land mass, population, and business dispersion of the country –larger countries with widely dispersed
populations require more travel to facilitate economic and business development
Industry mix of the economy –countries whose economies are dominated by sectors that are more travel-intense
will rise in the rankings
Productivity of business travel –business travel is a material/service input to virtually every industry. Whether
business travel's role in business success is rising or falling over time is a function of its factor productivity and the
availability of substitutes. In countries with well-developed network infrastructure, for example, high-quality video
conferencing alternatives can incrementally reduce the amount of business travel. On the other side, better
transportation infrastructure can reduce the cost of a trip, perhaps promoting more and/or longer trips.
Degree of export dominance –countries with large trade sectors (China, Germany, Japan, Indonesia) will tend to
engage in more international business travel. On a per-trip basis, spending will tend to be higher in these
economies. Trip volume will tend to be lower, however. In countries where economic activity is more dependent
upon consumption (U.S., India, U.K.), domestic business travel will dominate.
Physical location –proximity to markets and supply chain. Countries that are far from their markets will by
definition require more business travel to in order for businesses to succeed
Infrastructure development –this factor speaks to the ability to travel. Is the transportation and hospitality
infrastructure sufficient for business travel to flourish?
Environmental, tax, security, and regulatory policy –does the government help or hinder business travel? Policies
aimed at improving security, reducing fiscal deficits, or regulating land use -depending upon how they are
structured- can incrementally damage or promote business travel.
GLOBAL SUMMARY
IHS Global Insight estimates that total business travel spending across the globe reached $929 billion in 2008. This
represents growth of over 3% versus 2007, much of it coming from countries other than the United States. The definition
of business travel in this case includes both domestic and outbound international trips.
North America, Western Europe, and Asia dominate global business travel activity, with each representing about 30% of
total in 2008. Asia, Emerging Europe, and Middle East & Africa have led the way with respect to the rate of growth since
1998, however.
The lion's share of this nearly $900+ billion
dollars does take place within the U.S.,
however. At $261 billion, the U.S. comprises
about 28% of all business travel. Given its size
and torrid growth, China is the second largest
business travel market at $93.8 billion in 2008.
Growth around the world has been anything but
uniform. While the U.S. dominates in terms of
spending levels, growth has been more robust
in Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, and
Eastern Europe. This is largely a reflection of
rapid economic growth in these regions, as well
as the tendency for business travel to be used
more intensively in earlier stages of
company/industry development. Many of these
counties also lack the infrastructure sufficient to
promote non-travel alternatives to business
communication needs.
Western Europe, North America (NAFTA), and Asia-Pacific are all about the same size with respect to the level of
business travel spending in 2008. Together, they account for nearly 90% of global activity. The remaining 10% takes
place in Latin America, Emerging Europe, and the Middle East & Africa (MEA). Growth in business travel spending over
the past decade paints a slightly different picture. North America and Western Europe have been the growth laggards,
while Asia, Emerging Europe, and MEA have led the way. IHS Global Insight estimates that worldwide business travel
spending activity has increased by over 35% since 1998. Some of this growth is due to inflation (all estimates are in
current US dollars), but most represents real increases in the volume and dispersion of business travel activity around the
world.
Among the top 25 markets, Russia has been the fastest growing over the past decade (1998-2008), registering
compound annual growth of about 16% per year. This is more than eight times the rate of U.S. growth (1.9%) during that
same period. Indonesia (15%) and China (14%) also registered double digit growth per year over that period. Turkey
(9.2%), India (8.8%) and South Korea (8.4%) are also notable in terms of business travel spending expansion.
Meanwhile, World growth in business travel spending (measured in nominal dollars) over the last decade achieved 4.6%
per year.
While many countries grew more quickly than
the U.S, all started from a much smaller base.
China, the number two business travel market,
is only about 1/3 the size of the U.S. at
present. Japan, at $78 billion in 2008, is the
third largest market, yet only 30% as large as
the U.S. Italy floats to the top of the rankings
on the strength of its export and domestic
economic performance over the past decade.
Moreover, Italy's current industrial mix favors
industry's that are relatively more travel
intense.
The market with the fastest rate of growth
during the last decade was Zimbabwe, at 35%
per year. This performance is impressive, but
total business travel spending in that country
was only $3.2 billion in 2008.
Another way to analyze growth is to focus upon
the change in the level of business travel
spending between 1998 and 2008. In the U.S.,
for example, annual business travel spending
was $44 billion higher in 2008 than it was in
1998. China expanded by nearly $70 billion
and Russia grew by only $15 billion during the
same period. Zimbabwe grew to $3.2 billion from virtually zero during the past decade.
The top 25 business travel markets are shown in the table below, along with their 1998-2008 growth performance.
TOP 25 GLOBALBUSINESS TRAVEL MARKETS
Based on Domestic and Outbound International (in millions of current U.S. $$)
IHS Global Insight also examined business travel spending by industry around the world. The table below identifies the
largest and most travel-dependent sectors. The level and growth of business travel spending is contrasted with organic
global industry sales. Sector growth in business travel spending is dependent upon both the organic growth of the
industry as well as the intensity and productivity of travel as a critical input.
TOP 20 GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL SECTORS:
2008 Business Travel Spending $$
$100,000
$90,000
$80,000
in Millions of Current US$
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
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The Utilities, Food Processing & Services, Real Estate, and Government sectors float to the top of the rankings primarily
due to their sheer size across the globe. Utilities, Food Processing, and Real Estate do engage in significant business
travel in relative terms as well. For example, Utilities have a very large service & repair component at both the retail and
generation levels, ones that require significant investments in business travel. Many employees of these organizations
travel almost every day.
Virtually every country has a well-established presence in these basic sectors. For many developing economies, these
sectors are the primary benefactors of critical infrastructure investment. With the exception of Utilities, their usage of
business travel per dollar of industry sales or per industry employee is generally not as large as, say, the Banking &
Financial sector or Professional & Business services, yet the size of these industries, as demonstrated in the column
entitled, "Industry Sales 2008", adds up to significant levels of business travel spending.
Turning to subject of growth in business travel spending over the last decade, Oil Refining, Education, Chemicals, and
Social & Personal Services lead the list. In part due to organic growth around the world, in part due to rapid economic
expansion in developing countries, and in part due to increasing usage of business travel, these industries have led the
way.
Note that the Top 25 sectors account for nearly 92% of all global business travel. The remaining industries are either
relatively small (e.g. Textile Manufacturing), less intense users of business travel (e.g. Mining, Retail Trade), or both (e.g.
Apparel, Wood Products). The last column in the table counts the dollar increase in business travel spending over the
decade 1998 to 2008. Here again, the larger business travel sectors tend to dominate the list. Business travel spending
in the Food Processing & Services had a relatively sluggish growth rate over the decade, but its size and global dispersion
make it the 5th largest industry for increasing the level of business travel spending, roughly adding $1.8 billion per year
during 1998-2008.
TOP 25 GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL SECTORS:
Ranked on 2008 Business Travel Spending $$
BUSINESS TRAVEL'S CONTRIBUTION TO INDUSTRIES AROUND THE GLOBE
One of the most important conceptual and numeric building blocks of this research effort is the estimations of the
contribution of business travel spending to top-line revenues of industries. This metric essentially captures each industry's
travel intensity. The need for business travel as a material/service input varies across both industries and countries. An
understanding of the level of business travel spending per dollar of revenue puts the need for business travel in
perspective relative to both sales and other critical inputs such as labor costs, other materials and services expenses,
even equipment and structures investment.
The global business travel database that has been built in support of this research effort includes metrics for both industry
performance (sales by sector) and business travel utilization for each country. The level of business travel spend per
dollar of revenue is also an essential data concept. We have not only worked to derive a current value for this key
measure, but have also sought to track its change over time. Increases or decreases over the past decade essentially
address changes in the "productivity" of business travel in the production recipe of each industry sector.
As mentioned, our key measure of business travel intensity varies across industries and countries. For any one sector,
the degree of business travel required to support a measured level of revenue is a function of the unique operating
framework of that sector, as well as the physical, regulatory, and cultural attributes of each country.
The chart shows the distribution of travel-spend-per-revenue dollar across the 72 countries examined in the study for the
sector, Professional & Business Services. We chose this industry as an example because it is anecdotally understood to
Source: IHS Global Insight, OECD, UN/WTO, various Ministries of Commerce, Statistics, & Tourism
be among the most travel-intense of the 48 sectors included in our research. With a global average of 1.1¢ per dollar of
revenue, the chart shows the dispersion of the 72 countries around the global average. It should be noted that for some
of the countries, IHS Global Insight was unable to find a defensible source for this critical metric. Generally, they were
smaller or developing countries (e.g. Bangladesh, Jordan, Costa Rica, etc.) that lack detailed economic and business data
of all kinds. In those cases, we imposed the global average –hence the many countries that appear on the global average
line.
Note the above-average travel intensity of some of the Western European countries, registering in the 1.5¢-1.6¢ per
revenue dollar range. This is a significant difference over some of the developing countries such as Mexico or the
Ukraine, showing rates in the half-cent per revenue dollar range. Western Europe boasts a large and well-developed
Professional & Business Services sector that must engage in a great deal of business travel in order to support its
relatively large level of sector revenue. The opposite is true of countries such as Mexico or Greece, where the industry is
in an earlier stage of development.
Next, we take a deeper dive into a specific country showing the differences in travel intensity across domestic industries.
Using the United Kingdom as an example, many of the key sectors have been highlighted in the bar chart. Measures of
business travel intensity range from a high of 3.7¢ per revenue dollar for Equipment Leasing to a low of Mining with
fractions of a penny per revenue dollar. The U.K. all-industry average is about 0.9¢ per revenue dollar.
Keep in mind that this metric is not an indicator of the size of business travel spending. Rubber & Plastics, for example,
may show relatively high travel intensity, but the industry is a small player in the U.K. economy. The opposite is true of
sectors such as Education or Government.
Keeping with the U.K. example, we can also illustrate the notion of travel intensity over time. As previously mentioned,
upward or downward trends in travel spend-per-revenue-dollar speak to the changing productivity of business travel as a
key production input. Examining the change in business travel's intensity in the Professional & Business Services
industry, we note that travel intensity is trending down over the last decade. Travel is becoming a smaller portion of the
industry's total cost. Said
differently, business travel's
productivity is on the rise.
There are many possible reasons
for the increase in travel
productivity:
A reduction in travel
prices relative to the
price of other inputs and
of wages
A rise in the length of
stay of business trips,
where business travelers
are seeing more sales
prospects, conducting
more meetings, or
Source: HIS Global Insight, OECD, UN/WTO
attending more training sessions per trip.
Increased usage of business travel alternatives such as conference calls, Webcasts, and video conferencing.
Improvements in both the usage and quality of travel management. Through cost reductions and productivity
improvements, travel management has added to the efficiency and contribution made by business travel.
A gradual change in the structure of the industry where, for example, companies begin to locate closer to their
markets and/or supply chains.
IHS Global Insight has forecasted future changes in travel intensity for each industry. Using a combination of a number of
secular and cyclical factors, we have generally continued the trends observed over the past decade across industries and
countries. This was an important building block for the business travel spending projections presented in the next section.
GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL OUTLOOK
The next section will cover the IHS Global Insight forecast for global business travel. Our view of the medium-term future
of travel (2009-2013) is driven primarily by two fundamental factors: (1) our expectations for global macroeconomic
performance and (2) the underlying contribution that business travel makes to each industry in each country. To establish
our macroeconomic expectations through 2013, we have turned to IHS Global Insight's Country Intelligence Group's data,
economic models, and country experts. This unit of IHS Global Insight monitors economic activity in over 200 countries
and provides clients with daily analysis, ongoing risk assessments, and monthly forecasts.
Our view of the contribution of business travel to each country-sector combination has been established by analyzing
trends in the business travel "purchasing" behavior of 48 sectors across 72 countries. Analyzing trends in the level of
business travel spending per dollar of industry sales (or per employee) over time, IHS Global Insight was able to extend
these factors out to 2013. The combination of the forecast of industry sales (macroeconomic environment) and the trend
in business travel spending per dollar of sales (business travel intensity & productivity) was used to generate our
projections.
We begin with a summary explanation of the global macroeconomic environment covering the current recession, the
coming recovery, and growth prospects through 2013.
World Economic Outlook Summary
The global economy ran into a brick wall at the end of 2008.
The advanced economies' strong downshift during 2008 has set
up the global economy for its worst recession since World War II.
The world economy's expansion has been going through a rough
patch since mid-2007, when the lagged cumulative effect of
monetary tightening around the world during the preceding
several years finally dented the global housing boom, triggering a
growing credit tightening and then outright crunch in advanced
economies. World GDP growth has decelerated markedly, from a
robust annualized growth rate of 4.7% in the second quarter of
2007 to a dismal contraction of 0.1% in the third quarter of
2008—which already was far below the global economy's long-
term annual trend rate of 3.4%. Moreover, we estimate world
GDP contracted 6.0% in the fourth quarter and expect a further major contraction of similar magnitude in the first quarter
of 2009. Economic conditions have deteriorated severely since mid-September because of an intensification of financial
market turbulence and an unprecedented credit crunch in the global banking system. Although the sharp retreat of oil and
other primary commodities prices since last July is providing timely relief for both consumers and businesses, the price
levels are likely to remain elevated compared with their long-term historical averages.
Moreover, the odds are that the global economy will continue to face major headwinds for some months as a result of the
declines in global property markets and the tightening of lending standards by beleaguered financial institutions.
International trade is no longer supporting world growth. Until recently, international trade had been a key pillar of
support for the global economy in general and raw-material-exporting economies and countries with undervalued
currencies in particular. With nearly two-thirds of the world economy now in the midst of a major contraction, though,
foreign trade has now become a drag for the global growth. IHS Global Insight expects world nominal merchandise
exports to contract more than 23% in 2009. World trade could stabilize before the end of this year, but it is unlikely to
make a full recovery to its normal pace of double global GDP growth before 2011.
The worst of the downturn is behind us. The global economy's recession, which intensified at an alarming pace in
September 2008, has been moderating since March and appears to be nearing its end. Recent data releases are no
longer as depressing as they were earlier this year, and there are increasing signs for at least a modest recovery during
the second half of this year. Financial-market indicators, in particular, have been showing increasing signs of stabilisation
for several months as credit conditions have started to loosen up and corporate bond spreads have narrowed, which are
providing badly needed financial relief for beleaguered businesses.
Our latest bottom-up global economic forecast-which was started in late May and published in mid-June-resulted in a
world GDP growth projection of -2.6% for 2009, which represents the world economy's most severe annual contraction
in more than 60 years. To be sure, the world economy is still in a highly fragile state, with most investors still avoiding
risky assets and market consensus anticipating a "great recession" for 2009. The downturn has been particularly acute in
the case of industries, as aggregate global output is projected to decline by more than 10% during 2009. Latest national-
account reports confirm that world GDP growth declined sharply for the second consecutive quarter in the first quarter of
2009.
Nevertheless, recent high-frequency data releases suggest that the rate of contraction has diminished in the
second quarter, and there is now a good chance that we may see a modest rise in global GDP in the third quarter. The
economies of Greater China and the United States are likely to lead the recovery among emerging markets and advanced
economies, respectively, because of their diverse base, dynamic structure, and more flexible and competitive markets
relative to their peers.
Given the unsettled condition of global credit markets, the world economy's deleveraging is likely to continue
through late 2009. The severity of the financial market turmoil has already devastated the U.S. investment banking
sector, severely depressed asset prices worldwide, and caught policymakers flatfooted. The global credit system has
become highly dysfunctional. The entire subprime mortgage market remains effectively shut down, and more broadly, the
structured credit markets are still in seizure. The volume of both outstanding asset-backed commercial paper and
leveraged buy-out activity has fallen off dramatically. The number of initial public offerings (IPOs) has collapsed to near
zero since the second quarter. Financial firms, which have been forced to write down trillions of dollars in bad debt since
the second quarter of 2007, are finding it increasingly difficult to raise capital—in part because of the sharp drop in their
share prices during the past two years and in part because their credit ratings have nosedived sharply. The strain on the
financial system has engulfed the corporate sector, as reflected in rising corporate bond spreads, particularly in the high-
yield segment.
World growth will not get above trend until the advanced economies' housing markets stabilize. The advanced
economies are now in a very fragile state, as they have been dragged down by a protracted housing downturn and
deleveraging in financial markets. Because of the huge share of these countries in the global economy, world quarterly
GDP growth is now in the midst of a major contraction. IHS Global Insight now expects the downturn to engulf all
economies, including emerging markets and less-developed countries, given their dependence on exporting to advanced
economies.
Weak growth will keep financial markets volatile. The global financial system has already seen its capital base
damaged by the U.S.-led housing and mortgage crisis, and the credibility of its institutions has come under question as a
result of inadequate transparency and imprudent investment decisions. The deteriorating global economic outlook and
uncertainties on the extent of damage to financial institutions' balance sheets will keep lending activity subdued, risky
assets out of favor, and investors skittish for at least the next several months. The resulting deleveraging and
disintermediation have already depressed global economic activity.
High oil prices represent another major risk for the global economy's growth prospects. During the past seven
years, periodic spikes in global oil prices sapped economic recovery by dampening consumer confidence and
discouraging businesses from adopting aggressive expansion plans. High oil prices were particularly harmful to energy-
intensive sectors, such as transportation and some industrial-material-processing industries. The responsibility of oil
prices for the global economy's momentum losses should not be exaggerated, though. Although oil prices undoubtedly
shaved several tenths of a percentage point from the global economy's aggregate growth since 2004, their impact was far
less severe compared with previous oil crises—particularly those of the 1970s and 1980s. Indeed, rising oil prices had
relatively modest adverse effects on overall inflation during the last business cycle because of the global economy's lower
oil intensity and lingering output gaps in many sectors, which greatly diminished the impact of high oil prices on core
inflation. We take a specific look at the impact of oil prices on business travel in the U.S. Business Travel Forecast
section of this report.
With oil prices having retreated by more than 60% during the second half of 2008, central banks have had substantial
latitude for easing their monetary policies as much as they want. Nevertheless, some financial-market analysts continue to
believe that oil remains in a long-term bull market and expect global crude prices to resume their upward
advance.
The advanced economies' inflation upsurge is over. High oil and raw-material prices led to spikes in headline inflation
throughout the world during 2007 and the first half of 2008, but core inflation rates remained relatively low, particularly
among advanced economies and dynamic Asian economies. In any case, since mid-2008, the ongoing world growth
deceleration, along with powerful deflationary pressures from the housing downturn, has weakened labor markets;
constrained unit labor cost growth, and exerted downward pressure on the prices of housing and energy and other
industrial raw materials. These developments have contained inflationary pressures and eased concerns about
macroeconomic imbalances, as reflected in recent downward revisions to the inflation forecasts in surveys published by
Consensus Economics
The good news is that real interest rates remain low, and monetary authorities have ample room for easing. The
advanced economies' low core inflation rates suggest that monetary policy could heavily err on the accommodative side
even if energy and raw material prices resumed their upward march over the coming months. By reducing the households'
discretionary spending, any upward relative price shock from food, energy, or other industrial raw materials has a
deflationary (rather than inflationary) effect on domestic demand. As a result, we do not expect any monetary tightening
by major central banks before 2010.
As a result, global growth should rebound in 2010. Despite its current weakness, we expect the world economy to
stabilize during the second half of 2009, thanks to the advanced economies' reflationary measures, and shift to a higher
gear by mid-2010. Nevertheless, given the protracted nature of housing-market adjustments, world growth will likely be
less robust over the next several quarters than during the past five years of the current business cycle.
Indeed, the anticipated global recovery could turn out to be unsustainable. Growth may falter again in 2010 or 2011,
as many of the problems afflicting credit markets are deep rooted. Financial markets could remain vulnerable to periodic
bouts of intense volatility and disruptive risk re-pricing. It may take additional, extraordinary policy action by policymakers,
such as costly government bailouts of financial institutions and quantitative monetary easing, to get us out of the current
rut and prevent a prolonged crisis.
A longer-than-anticipated housing downturn is now the global economy's worst nightmare. With housing assets
extremely overvalued in many countries, the current housing-market adjustments could turn out to be a very protracted
process. A synchronous worldwide housing crash has the potential to unleash powerful global deflationary pressures for
several years. With a growing list of countries already mired in housing-market downturns of various degrees of severity,
financial markets are likely to remain at risk of further turmoil and disorderly price correction. If the housing-market
downturn intensifies and spreads to other countries, we could be facing an escalating debt-asset deflation, the likes of
which has not been experienced since the 1930s.
Global business profit and investment growth, which has decelerated intensely in line with nominal world GDP,
will start to recover in the second half of 2009. The financial firms' profits will likely rebound first, from their current
horrendous state, thanks to the central banks' rapid "steepening" of the yield curve. Non-financial firms' profit levels will
also rebound soon after, as their drastic retrenchments reduce their costs, nominal global GDP stops contracting, and
world aggregate demand begins to improve.
Bottom Line: The global economy is in the midst of a potentially dangerous crisis that may linger on beyond 2010
and has the potential to get a lot worse before it gets better. Furthermore, the anticipated recovery that is likely to
start in 2010 may prove disappointing given that the primary source of the ongoing weakness is a deep and protracted
correction in housing markets. Housing market downturns tend to be long-lasting processes that can go on for 5 to 10
years. With most banks continuing to tighten their lending standards for businesses as well as consumers, financial
markets will remain jittery and vulnerable to periodic bouts of intense volatility and disruptive risk re-pricing. The
stabilization of financial markets may require even more aggressive monetary easing and liquidity injections than we have
seen so far—such as government takeovers of many more financial institutions (or their "toxic" debts). Indeed, given the
severity of the distortions in asset markets as a result of the past several years' easy credit, the complete normalization of
credit markets could take several years.
.
World Economy Annual Aggregate Forecast Numbers

(Percent change from a year earlier, unless otherwise specified)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Real GDP 4.1 4.0 2.2 -2.6 1.9
Nominal Per-Capita GDP (U.S. Dollars) 7,495 8,331 9,071 8,359 8,753
Industrial Production 4.3 4.0 -0.3 -10.1 3.5
Merchandise Exports (Bil. of U.S. Dollars) 11,600 13,432 15,481 11,452 12,277
Merchandise Imports (Bil. of U.S. Dollars) 11,475 13,205 15,183 12,073 12,879
Merchandise Exports (Share of World GDP) 23.9 24.6 25.7 20.4 20.7
Real Retail Sales 2.8 2.6 0.3 -2.2 1.8
Consumer Price Index 3.1 3.3 5.0 1.5 2.2
Wholesale Price Index 4.6 4.1 8.6 -4.6 1.4
Money Supply, M1, Year-end 6.9 6.9 4.6 10.8 4.6
Broad Money Supply, Year-end 9.0 10.2 9.7 6.2 6.7
Policy Interest Rate (Percent) 4.9 4.9 3.2 2.2 2.5
Short-Term Interest Rate (Percent) 4.9 5.4 5.0 3.3 3.1
Long-Term Interest Rate (Percent) 4.7 5.0 4.8 4.3 4.3
Fiscal Balance (Share of GDP) -0.9 -0.4 -2.0 -6.9 -5.9
GDP Growth for Key Regions
(Annual compound growth rate, percent)
1998–2002 2003–2007 2008–2012
World 2.8 3.5 2.0

United States 2.6 2.5 1.6
Canada 3.5 2.4 2.0
Western Europe 2.2 2.1 0.2
European Union 2.3 2.3 0.3
Eurozone 2.1 2.0 0.1
United Kingdom 3.0 2.3 0.7
Asia-Pacific 3.5 5.0 3.9
Japan 0.9 1.6 0.4
Rest of Region 5.9 7.3 5.8
Australia 3.4 3.1 2.4
China 8.7 10.8 8.6
India 5.7 8.5 7.0
South Korea 6.3 4.2 2.4
Commonwealth of Ind. States 6.8 7.5 1.4
Central Europe & the Balkans 2.8 5.6 1.6
Latin America & the Caribbean 0.7 3.1 1.3
Middle East & North Africa 3.6 6.2 3.5
Sub-Saharan Africa 3.3 5.6 3.2
Implications for Global Business Travel

In step with the rest of the global economy, the business travel market is expected to recover from the "Great Recession"
beginning in late 2009. The recovery will be sluggish at best during the early phase of the economic rebound, with more
rapid expansion not arriving until 2010 and 2011. The U.S. and China are expected to lead the way in economic
recovery, as well as business travel spending expansion. The rest of the world will follow this lead later in 2010 and into
2011.
As mentioned earlier in the Global Business Travel
Analysis section, the U.S. and the rest of the world
are on dramatically different growth trajectories. The
same will be true for the next five years as well. In
part of reflection of the relative growth performance
of the economies of the U.S. versus, say, China or
India, but also due to the very slow pace of American
companies' willingness to lift business travel
restrictions. This will be driven by anemic
improvements in corporate profit performance, where
most of the early improvement will come from cost
reductions rather than top line improvement.
The emerging growth picture for the U.S. is quite
different than much of the rest of the world.
Business travel spending in the U.S. will recover very
slowly from the current recession. With a relatively
weak outlook for both the top and bottom lines of
Source: IHS Global Insight, NBTA corporate profit and loss statements, companies will
be reluctant to add employees, purchase equipment,
and relax cost containment measures.
This is perhaps even truer of Western Europe, where deeper and longer-lasting housing and credit market problems paint
a rather dim picture for business travel recovery. Moreover, the traditional European market is much more mature leaving
less opportunity for quick gains. Meanwhile, emerging economies have the advantage of brighter long-term economic
growth prospects. Many did not have a housing bubble to contend with, nor the need for massive deleveraging of
consumer and business credit markets. Countries such as China, Brazil, and India were also able to implement
significant stimulus packages to buoy their economies through the current recession. These packages, most with large
infrastructure investment components, will help their economies recover more quickly as this global recession comes to
an end beginning in late 2009.
The net is for a continuation of the trend of U.S.
and Western European business travel spending
growing more slowly than the rest of the world. At
$262 billion in 2008, the U.S. market is estimated
to grow to only $266 billion by 2013, a
compounded growth rate of only 0.3% per year.
The World, on the other hand, will expand from
$929 billion in 2008 to $986 billion five years later.
This represents growth of 1.2% per year.
Consequently, the U.S. share of total business
travel spending will fall from 28% in 2008 to 27%
by 2013.
While virtually every country will participate in what
IHS Global Insight calls "The Great Recession",
some will fair better than others. Such was the case during the peak years of the last expansion period as well. In
business travel spending, countries such as China, Russia, India and the United Kingdom all outpaced the U.S. on an
annual growth basis. Indeed, many of these countries were not significantly impacted by the 2001 recession. Yet, each
experienced a dramatic curtailment in business travel growth beginning as early as mid 2007. During 2008, the United
States had already experienced a decline in business travel well in advance of the rapid decay in many of the key
economic indicators –largely a fourth quarter phenomena. By early 2009, every significant business travel market was
experiencing year-over-year declines.
The rather dramatic "V" shaped recession depicted below assumes a market bottom in late 2009. It will be 2010, even
2011 for some countries, before growth rates turn positive, however. Said differently, key business travel markets will
recover from the "Great Recession", but the global recovery will be more tepid. Repairing the damage done to global
housing and credit markets will take time. Still, the good news is that the Great Recession will end and growth markets
will return.
Growth in Business Travel Spending

includes Domestic and Outbound International Trips
40%
30%
20% China
Yr-to-Yr Percent
India
10%
United States
0% United Kingdom
Germany
-10%
Russia
-20% World Total
-30%
-40%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source: IHS Global Insight, NBTA, OECD, UN/WTO, Various Ministries of Commerce & Tourism
GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING GROWTH:
2008-2013 Change in Business Travel Spending $$ Through 2013
(in billions of current U.S.$)
Depending upon the definition of business travel growth through 2013, the world picture looks quite different. Basing the
definition on the increase in the level of business travel spending (above), North America and Asia are the dominant
regions. Changing the perspective to the rate of growth (below) suggests a different spatial view of the globe. Latin
America, Eastern Europe, Asia, and the Middle East appear more favorable.
GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING GROWTH:
2008-2013 COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE IN %
TOP 15 & BOTTOM 15 GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL GROWTH MARKETS:
Ranked on Change in Business Travel Spending $$ Through 2013
(all figures in millions of current U.S.$ unless otherwise noted)
Source: HIS Global Insight, NBTA, OECD, UN/TWO, various Ministries of Commerce & Tourism
China leads the way in business travel spending growth through 2013. The combination of torrid economic
growth and the sheer size of its business travel market push China to the top of the list. China's significant economic
stimulus measures implemented early on in the current global recession are already bearing fruit. Infrastructure
investment and consumption support were key platforms of the stimulus. Both will lead to greater business travel,
particularly domestic trips, as their economy recovers.
The U.S. comes in at #4 on the business travel dollar growth rankings, based upon size and a relatively early
start at economic recovery. The recovery will begin as soon as the second half of 2009, yet will be slow by past
standards. Expected to grow a relatively slow rate (0.3% per year) through 2013, the U.S. will still add more than $4.2
billion in business travel spending.
India, like China, is expected to return to its earlier position as a global growth leader. India's economy is less
dependent on export markets than China. Government stimulus efforts in India also focused on domestic demand
support. This will lead to more growth in domestic business travel activity in the short-to-medium term.
Japan will show surprising business travel resilience as their economy awakens from a long sleep.
Improvements in domestic business activity and eventual recovery in export markets will drive more business travel.
Japan's business travel market is already large and is expected in increase over 3.3% per year through 2013.
Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, and Taiwan will rebound quickly as global export markets begin to
thaw. Recovery in their international and, in some cases, domestic business travel markets will quickly follow suit.
The size of their existing business travel markets coupled with expectations for a return to above-trend economic
growth places them all on the Top 15 list.
Emerging European markets, likewise, will shake off the current recession and begin to recover in 2010.
Commodity market improvements, as well as export recovery, will get business travel spending growth back on track.
Markets such as the Czech Republic, Romania, and Hungary are already large enough to make some noise on the
country business travel hit parade. Economic growth expectations guarantee that they will continue to rise.
Iran makes the Top 15 list based upon its size and growth over the past decade. Domestic business travel is
already significant in this market, and international outbound has expanded despite longstanding economic sanctions.
Still, Iran's political situation is a significant risk. Instability could erase business travel gains almost overnight,
particularly if the situation boils over.
A less robust and somewhat delayed economic recovery in much of Western Europe push many of its
business travel markets into the Bottom 15 list, at least through 2013. The housing crisis in the U.K., Spain, and
Ireland, among others, is much worse than in the U.S. and, unfortunately, still has a long way to go. Moreover, the
banking and financial crisis is actually more acute and potentially damaging in Western Europe. Finally, longer-term
systemic issues such as an aging population, labor market problems, and lower investment spending will continue to
hamper growth in business travel spending in this part of the world.
Germany and Italy make the Bottom 15 list primarily due to export dependence and sluggish domestic
demand. Both countries have significant domestic business travel markets, particularly relative to the rest of Western
Europe. Both countries are expected to be relatively late in the sequence of economic recovery and, as a result,
show a loss in business travel spending through 2013.
Russia's dependence upon commodity exports, particularly oil and natural gas, puts it at the bottom of the
list through 2013. It will recover from the current recession, but it will be among the last countries to commence its
rebound. Domestic and international business travel will begin to grow again, but too late to spare Russia the dubious
distinction of being at the bottom of the 2008-2013 list.
Transposing our view of business travel markets, IHS Global Insight can also evaluate the prospects for travel spending
across global industry sectors. From the vantage point of industries, the pace of recovery from the current recession is
very much a function of which countries dominate the sector and the amount to which economic stimulus package funds
flow to that sector. For example, infrastructure investment in China, India, and the U.S. will propel sectors such as
Government, Construction, Utilities, and Education to the top of the list. On the other hand, continuing problems in the
global Banking & Financial sectors prevent it from making the Top 20.
TOP 20 GLOBAL GROWTH SECTORS THROUGH 2013:
Ranked on Change in Business Travel Spending $$ Through 2013
Source: IHS Global Insight, NBTA, OECD, various Ministries of Commerce, Statistics, & Tourism
From a business travel spending perspective, Government is clearly participating in the current recession.
Because of its key role in leading many countries out of of recession, Government business travel growth in 2010 will
be among the highest. Likewise, for Education. Taken over the five-year period 2009-2013, Government (federal and
local) will show the largest level increase in business travel spending.
Sectors such as Utilities, Food Processing & Services, and Education make the list for two key reasons. First,
they exist in virtually every country and have a scale correlated with the size/growth of population. Secondly, recovery
from the global recession will be led by these industries. Government stimulus money has poured into infrastructure
development, propelling these sectors out of the recovery gate sooner.
Notable industries missing from this list include Banking & Finance and Profession & Business Services.
While these sectors are relatively travel-intense, the depth of their declines and the slower pace of their expected
recoveries keep them just below the cutoff of the Top 20 list. Business travel spending for these industries, as well as
for Wholesale Trade, will grow during this recovery, just not enough to break into the Top 20. In the case of Banking
& Finance, despite average annual growth of 1.6% per year through 2013, the magnitude of the decline during this
recession unfortunately prevents a return to the previous peak.
The prospects and rankings for many of these sectors changes dramatically as one moves from country to country. To
illustrate this point, the next section takes each of the Top 20 business travel country markets and dives deeper into the
issue of industry-by-industry performance over the next five years.
Which sectors represent the best targets? From a purely external perspective, the short answer is those that are:
(1) organically growing their own lines of business at home and abroad,
(2) are already business travel-intense, and
(3) are expected to grow that intensity over the next few years.
Once way to depict the distribution of sectors across these key criterion is to use a "dogs-and-stars" scatter plot.
Dispersing the industries across business travel spending size (2008) and growth (2008-2013 CAGR%) suggests their
relative position and potential attractiveness as a target market.
Global Business Travel Target Markets 2008-2013
$100,000 Utilities
Food Processing and Services
Mature Professional & Business
Real Estate
Stars
Services Government
Wholesale Trade Transportation Services
2008 Business Travel Spending
Bank ing & Finance Construction Communications Services

Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry,
Petroleum Refining
Equipment Rental & Leasing Fishing Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing

Non-Metallic Mineral Products
Hotels & Restaurants
Fabricated Metal Products Paper & Paper Products Transportation Equipment
Chemicals & Chemical
Printing & Publishing Computer Service & Related Electrical Machinery &
Products
Communication Equipment
$10,000 Retail
Activities
Trade Apparatus
Textiles Industrial Machinery &
Basic Metals Manufacturing Equipment
Other ManufacturingWood & Wood Products
Motor Vehicles Medical, Precision & Optical

Instruments
Recycling
Office, Accounting & Computing
Machinery Apparel Emerging
Lower Priority
$1,000 Leather & Leather Products
-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

2008-2013 Growth (CAGR%) in Business Travel Spending
All of the sectors falling in the "Stars" quadrant are already notably large spenders on business travel. They are also
expected to grow that spending over the next five years. We have already mentioned Utilities and Construction, but other
sectors such as Communications Services, Transportation Services, and Chemicals also deserve consideration. Motor
Vehicles is perhaps the most notable "Lower Priority" quadrant. For one, this industry is not a large user of business
travel. Moreover, its global market challenges are already well-known. Notable sectors in the "Emerging" quadrant
include Computer Manufacturing, Instrumentation, and Industrial Machinery.
Banking & Finance, Business Services, and Wholesale Trade find themselves in the "Mature" quadrant. We already know
them to be very travel-intense. The challenge lies in their ability (and pace) to recover from the current recession and
grow business travel through 2013.
The Outlook for the Top 20 Global Travel Markets
The next section of the report presents the results of IHS Global Insight's business travel spending analysis and
projections for the top twenty (20) global markets. For each of these 20 countries, we have presented a snapshot of the
business travel market through the inclusion of:
1. A brief overview of the macroeconomic environment provided by IHS Global Insight's Country Intelligence Group,
2. A chart showing the history of total business travel spending in that country, as well as our projection through
2013,
3. A table illustrating our estimates of business travel spending by industry within that country, and
4. A table ranking business travel market opportunities by industry. The table takes a "dogs-and-stars" view of both
the current size of business travel in the industry and its growth prospects through 2013. The most desirable
opportunities are those with large current levels of business travel spending and good prospects for future growth.
The industries are allocated to the following four categories of market opportunity based upon their dispersion
around the means of both business travel measures:
Low Priority –those industries with either low levels of business travel, lower growth expectations, or both
Mature –industries with relatively large levels of current business travel spending, but have less robust
future growth prospects are classified as more mature.
Emerging –industries with excellent growth prospects, but relatively smaller current levels of business
travel spending are placed in this category.
Stars –these are industries with both large current levels of business travel spending and relatively strong
prospects for future growth.
Chart and table sources are (unless otherwise noted) from IHS Global Insight, NBTA, OECD, UN/WTO, and country-
specific Ministries of Commerce, Statistics, and Tourism
Australia
Economic Outlook
Inventories, investment, and consumer spending all continue to decline. IHS Global Insight subsequently expects
the economy will experience a contraction of around 0.6% in 2009 as the lagged, full impact of the downturn
unfurls from the second quarter onwards.
In anticipation of a potential economic slowdown, authorities have dramatically loosened monetary and fiscal
policy. Spending programs include direct cash disbursals for low- and middle-income households for employment
generation and support for first-time buyers in the real estate market.
Australian banks are marked for their high levels of capitalization and more conservative lending practices.
Nevertheless, rapidly rising unemployment and growing income insecurity could offset the positive impact of
looser credit.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, AUSTRALIA

(Millions of US$)
$20,000
$18,000
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING METRICS
AUSTRALIA
Total Sales Business Travel Spending

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
Industry 2008 2013 Change
(mn US$) Total (mn US$) Total %ch %ch
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Real Estate $131,683 7.7% $1,602.6 9.2% 8.2% -25.9% 2.3% 1.8% $152.76
Education $77,916 4.6% $288.8 1.7% 11.1% -15.3% 9.9% 8.1% $136.81
Government $84,424 4.9% $934.3 5.4% 6.9% -20.0% 3.7% 1.9% $92.50
Social & Personal Services $44,642 2.6% $903.9 5.2% 7.8% -27.8% 1.9% 0.6% $27.85
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing $7,756 0.5% $224.0 1.3% 4.2% -26.3% 1.9% 1.7% $19.95
Communications Services $47,840 2.8% $771.1 4.4% 5.7% -25.9% 1.2% 0.4% $16.39
Industrial Machinery & Equipment $11,966 0.7% $52.7 0.3% 7.9% -22.2% 0.7% 2.6% $7.16
Paper & Paper Products $6,989 0.4% $171.0 1.0% 7.4% -27.9% 1.3% 0.6% $5.57
Medical, Precision & Optical Instruments $2,965 0.2% $32.0 0.2% 9.7% -21.9% 3.1% 2.1% $3.59
Transportation Equipment $6,804 0.4% $88.9 0.5% 3.4% -24.5% 1.6% 0.6% $2.79
Mining $134,670 7.9% $22.2 0.1% 24.8% -27.5% 1.7% 1.7% $1.94
Hotels & Restaurants $29,122 1.7% $227.9 1.3% 4.7% -26.3% 1.1% 0.1% $1.33
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus $6,152 0.4% $66.5 0.4% 9.0% -25.0% -0.7% 0.0% $0.14
Private Households Employees $2,472 0.1% $0.0 0.0% 11.6% -15.9% 12.7% 11.3% $0.03
Leather & Leather Products $441 0.0% $2.7 0.0% 6.1% -21.7% -0.8% -0.3% -$0.04
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery $848 0.0% $3.1 0.0% -0.1% -26.7% 0.1% -1.7% -$0.25
Apparel $2,177 0.1% $13.4 0.1% 4.1% -22.6% -0.6% -0.8% -$0.53
Health & Social Work $113,950 6.7% $6.1 0.0% -3.3% -52.2% 21.7% -3.7% -$1.05
Wood & Wood Products $7,394 0.4% $138.0 0.8% 6.3% -27.9% 0.8% -0.3% -$1.98
Textiles $3,199 0.2% $55.8 0.3% 1.2% -27.2% -0.9% -0.7% -$2.04
Total $1,709,747 100% $17,457 100% 6.4% -27.5% 0.4% -0.7% -$571.39
BUSINESS TRAVEL WINNERS AND LOSERS
AUSTRALIA
Business Travel Business Travel
Industry
Industry Spending Spending
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Real Estate $1,602.6 1.8% Star
Transportation Services $1,241.6 -0.1% Star
Government $934.3 1.9% Star
Social & Personal Services $903.9 0.6% Star
Communications Services $771.1 0.4% Star
Education $288.8 8.1% Emerging

Hotels & Restaurants $227.9 0.1% Emerging
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing $224.0 1.7% Emerging
Paper & Paper Products $171.0 0.6% Emerging
Wood & Wood Products $138.0 -0.3% Emerging
Transportation Equipment $88.9 0.6% Emerging
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus $66.5 0.0% Emerging
Industrial Machinery & Equipment $52.7 2.6% Emerging
Medical, Precision & Optical Instruments $32.0 2.1% Emerging
Mining $22.2 1.7% Emerging
Leather & Leather Products $2.7 -0.3% Emerging
Private Households Employees $0.0 11.3% Emerging
Utilities $1,507.6 -0.6% Mature

Professional & Business Services $1,333.7 -3.0% Mature
Food Processing and Services $1,278.4 -1.0% Mature
Construction $945.5 -1.1% Mature
Banking & Finance $872.6 -3.5% Mature
Wholesale Trade $816.7 -2.7% Mature
Equipment Rental & Leasing $715.5 -2.3% Mature
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $547.9 -0.6% Mature
Research & Development Services $530.4 -3.1% Mature
Fabricated Metal Products $369.7 -3.4% Low Priority

Non-Metallic Mineral Products $336.5 -3.1% Low Priority
Printing & Publishing $274.9 -3.7% Low Priority
Retail Trade $206.8 -1.2% Low Priority
Petroleum Refining $204.4 -1.1% Low Priority
Computer Service & Related Activities $199.2 -2.4% Low Priority
Basic Metals Manufacturing $130.7 -4.7% Low Priority
Other Manufacturing $117.9 -2.3% Low Priority
Chemicals & Chemical Products $98.3 -1.3% Low Priority
Communication Equipment $63.5 -1.2% Low Priority
Textiles $55.8 -0.7% Low Priority
Motor Vehicles $48.1 -1.6% Low Priority
Apparel $13.4 -0.8% Low Priority
Recycling $12.2 -5.1% Low Priority
Health & Social Work $6.1 -3.7% Low Priority
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery $3.1 -1.7% Low Priority
Total $17,456.9 -0.7% Mature
Austria
Economic Outlook
Economic growth will become sharply negative in 2009 and take long to recover due to persisting global financial-
market turbulences triggered by the U.S. subprime crisis, substantial euro appreciation, and weakened consumer
purchasing power.
Inflation will be very soft in coming months and is expected to rise to 1.1% in 2010. As domestic demand
continues to suffer from rising unemployment, the debate will rather shift toward deflation risks—although IHS
Global Insight still regards such fears as overblown.
Political uncertainty will remain elevated after the collapse and resurrection of the grand coalition government and
the strengthening of the far right in the September 2008 polls.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, AUSTRIA

(Millions of US$)
$10,000
$9,000
$8,000
$7,000
$6,000
$5,000
$4,000
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
AUSTRIA

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Utilities $35,068 4.6% $1,459.5 15.6% 8.7% -13.6% 3.7% -30.2% $89.71
Education $23,463 3.1% $87.0 0.9% 7.7% -3.2% 11.1% 7.7% $38.93
Real Estate $51,754 6.8% $629.9 6.7% 6.9% -14.3% 1.6% 0.7% $22.79
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus $10,217 1.3% $110.4 1.2% 9.1% -10.1% 3.7% 3.0% $17.70
Government $31,132 4.1% $344.5 3.7% 1.8% -9.0% 3.3% 0.8% $14.16
Wood & Wood Products $11,185 1.5% $208.8 2.2% 7.8% -18.1% 3.1% -52.9% $8.47
Chemicals & Chemical Products $15,358 2.0% $65.7 0.7% 7.8% -18.2% 2.7% 0.2% $0.79
Mining $3,689 0.5% $0.7 0.0% 14.9% -15.1% 3.5% 1.6% $0.06
Private Households Employees $124 0.0% $0.0 0.0% 6.1% -3.7% 12.7% 10.1% $0.00
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery $194 0.0% $0.7 0.0% -0.9% -19.4% -3.4% -3.8% -$0.12
Leather & Leather Products $981 0.1% $6.0 0.1% 7.7% -8.3% -0.1% -0.5% -$0.15
Apparel $1,006 0.1% $6.2 0.1% 4.5% -10.9% -0.5% -1.6% -$0.48
Recycling $906 0.1% $10.0 0.1% 16.8% -27.6% 4.2% -1.8% -$0.88
Motor Vehicles $19,299 2.5% $45.1 0.5% 10.7% -21.6% -0.1% -0.6% -$1.25
Total $764,839 100% $9,370 100% 5.5% -16.0% 1.5% -0.4% -$184.78
AUSTRIA
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Professional & Business Services $680.2 -3.2% Star
Real Estate $629.9 0.7% Star
Food Processing and Services $577.6 -0.2% Star
Social & Personal Services $507.0 -0.1% Star
Construction $389.8 -1.3% Star
Equipment Rental & Leasing $350.7 -2.2% Star
Banking & Finance $276.0 -3.5% Star
Fabricated Metal Products $239.7 -1.9% Star
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing $233.1 2.4% Star
Non-Metallic Mineral Products $229.6 -3.1% Star
Hotels & Restaurants $218.5 -0.4% Emerging

Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $138.6 -2.3% Emerging
Printing & Publishing $101.0 -3.1% Emerging
Petroleum Refining $97.7 -1.6% Emerging
Computer Service & Related Activities $96.2 -3.1% Emerging
Other Manufacturing $92.7 -1.7% Emerging
Retail Trade $92.2 -1.3% Emerging
Communication Equipment $80.6 -1.2% Emerging
Basic Metals Manufacturing $73.5 -1.9% Emerging
Chemicals & Chemical Products $65.7 0.2% Emerging
Textiles $50.4 -1.3% Emerging
Motor Vehicles $45.1 -0.6% Emerging
Research & Development Services $11.5 -3.6% Emerging
Recycling $10.0 -1.8% Emerging
Apparel $6.2 -1.6% Emerging
Health & Social Work $1.8 -3.7% Emerging
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery $0.7 -3.8% Emerging

Transportation Services $660.5 -41.5% Mature
Wood & Wood Products $208.8 -52.9% Low Priority

Transportation Equipment $57.1 -64.1% Low Priority
Total $9,370.3 -0.4% Star
Belgium
Economic Outlook
Belgian GDP is projected to contract 3.3% in 2009 after growing 1.0% in 2008 which is largely due to a
deteriorating export market critical to the country’s overall economic performance.
The current financial market crisis and very tight lending conditions will restrict consumer spending in the
near term. In addition, the labor market is being hit by the current global economic downturn, and we expect
employment to decline in 2009.
Fiscal policy will continue to be restricted by the country’s high levels of public debt. We expect the Belgian
government budget to slip into negative territory in 2009–10, following six years of persistently balanced budgets.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, BELGIUM

(Millions of US$)
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
BELGIUM

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Education $34,366 3.0% $134.5 1.0% 8.1% -2.8% 12.0% 7.9% $62.58
Government $45,055 3.9% $526.7 3.8% 4.4% -9.4% 5.0% 1.2% $32.59
Real Estate $55,610 4.8% $714.9 5.2% 5.1% -16.6% 3.3% 0.7% $26.11
Food Processing and Services $48,595 4.2% $1,233.4 9.0% 2.3% -14.6% 3.7% 0.3% $20.65
Construction $78,184 6.7% $585.6 4.3% 5.9% -17.5% 3.6% 0.3% $7.44
Leather & Leather Products $543 0.0% $3.5 0.0% 9.9% -4.4% 4.1% 1.9% $0.34
Mining $1,587 0.1% $0.6 0.0% 14.0% -15.2% 7.2% 3.7% $0.12
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery $331 0.0% $1.3 0.0% 5.6% -15.6% -0.1% -1.9% -$0.12
Motor Vehicles $28,125 2.4% $69.5 0.5% 4.1% -20.9% 3.8% -0.3% -$0.95
Apparel $1,920 0.2% $12.4 0.1% 3.1% -12.7% 0.7% -1.6% -$0.99
Total $1,164,142 100% $13,766 100% 5.1% -20.0% 3.1% -0.9% -$608.81
BELGIUM
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Food Processing and Services $1,233.4 0.3% Star
Construction $585.6 0.3% Star

Leather & Leather Products $3.5 1.9% Emerging

Transportation Services $1,263.9 -1.0% Mature
Petroleum Refining $982.0 -1.5% Mature
Utilities $831.5 -1.4% Mature
Communications Services $357.5 -0.8% Mature

Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $111.2 -1.7% Low Priority
Research & Development Services $43.9 -2.9% Low Priority
Total $13,766.1 -0.9% Mature
Brazil
Economic Outlook
Brazil will come out of the recession earlier than most countries in the developed world helped by domestic
demand, strong fiscal stimulus, expansionary monetary policy, and credit availability.
The central bank will continue to take measures to avoid a liquidity crisis by guaranteeing the availability of credit
for banks and corporations. We expect commodity prices to show high volatility, although revolving around current
levels.
A trade surplus is anticipated for the foreseeable future even though exports are expected to drop 21% and
imports contract 18% thus keeping the trade balance in positive territory at around US$15 billion.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, BRAZIL

(Millions of US$)
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
BRAZIL

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Education $80,708 3.2% $202.2 1.0% 4.6% -8.6% 14.9% 7.3% $84.74
Mining $69,543 2.7% $14.6 0.1% 22.0% -19.4% 6.8% 1.2% $0.90
-
Health & Social Work $62,590 2.5% $2.3 0.0% 10.0% -48.5% 25.3% -5.4% -$0.55
Medical, Precision & Optical Instruments $6,474 0.3% $47.3 0.2% 10.5% -22.1% 6.8% -0.9% -$2.04
Industrial Machinery & Equipment $68,168 2.7% $202.8 1.0% 11.1% -21.7% 5.2% -0.6% -$5.62
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus $22,648 0.9% $165.4 0.8% 9.4% -20.6% 5.0% -0.7% -$5.93
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery $6,985 0.3% $17.3 0.1% 9.4% -32.0% -0.6% -8.6% -$6.28
Recycling $3,462 0.1% $25.9 0.1% 8.6% -41.3% 4.4% -7.7% -$8.54
Apparel $12,539 0.5% $52.0 0.3% 9.8% -22.4% 3.1% -4.1% -$9.73
Leather & Leather Products $12,207 0.5% $50.6 0.3% 11.9% -24.1% 2.4% -4.4% -$10.18
Hotels & Restaurants $42,082 1.7% $222.6 1.1% 3.9% -21.7% 5.7% -1.5% -$16.60
Real Estate $99,482 3.9% $818.5 4.0% 2.4% -18.9% 5.6% -0.4% -$17.62
Retail Trade $89,767 3.5% $158.2 0.8% 4.0% -20.6% 4.1% -2.5% -$18.83
Paper & Paper Products $29,488 1.2% $487.7 2.4% 9.3% -24.8% 6.6% -0.8% -$18.88
Computer Service & Related Activities $17,387 0.7% $107.8 0.5% -3.6% -22.0% 2.2% -4.1% -$20.16
Transportation Equipment $22,775 0.9% $201.1 1.0% 11.6% -24.1% 5.5% -2.3% -$21.96
Textiles $15,912 0.6% $187.5 0.9% 5.9% -25.8% 2.7% -3.6% -$31.69
Other Manufacturing $15,012 0.6% $116.6 0.6% 3.6% -31.8% 1.5% -6.6% -$33.67
Total $2,547,658 100% $20,230 100% 4.0% -24.4% 5.0% -2.5% -$2,439.69
BRAZIL
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Food Processing and Services $2,755.0 -3.0% Star
Utilities $2,643.4 -2.3% Star
Government $1,400.8 -0.7% Star
Communications Services $1,098.3 -1.1% Star
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $1,054.8 -2.6% Star
Petroleum Refining $860.1 -3.4% Star
Real Estate $818.5 -0.4% Star
Social & Personal Services $643.2 -1.2% Star
Construction $636.7 -3.8% Star
Banking & Finance $609.5 -4.4% Star
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing $592.1 -1.8% Star
Paper & Paper Products $487.7 -0.8% Star
Equipment Rental & Leasing $379.9 -3.6% Emerging

Chemicals & Chemical Products $357.8 -3.3% Emerging
Industrial Machinery & Equipment $202.8 -0.6% Emerging
Transportation Equipment $201.1 -2.3% Emerging
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus $165.4 -0.7% Emerging
Medical, Precision & Optical Instruments $47.3 -0.9% Emerging
Professional & Business Services $719.5 -4.7% Mature

Non-Metallic Mineral Products $535.2 -5.0% Mature

Total $20,230.0 -2.5% Star
Canada
Economic Outlook
Growth is falling sharply and with poor outlook for the second quarter, IHS Global Insight forecasts a 2.3%
contraction in 2009.
Inflation has been abating in Canada over the past few months because of the weakening economy but is
expected to rebound closer to the Bank of Canada's 2% target in 2010. We expect this downward pressure on
prices to persist throughout the year, as the economy contracts through mid-year and excess supply increases as
the output gap widens.
The Canadian dollar has steadily drifted up with commodity prices remaining a key factor. The Canadian dollar's
current slow advance is due in large part to the climb in the price of oil, as well as the recent increase in natural
gas prices. As oil prices recover from their current lows, the dollar is likely to appreciate.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, CANADA

(Millions of US$)
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
CANADA

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Real Estate $179,948 6.7% $1,608.9 8.1% 6.7% -12.1% 16.2% 5.9% $538.37
Government $198,435 7.4% $1,613.3 8.1% 5.3% -9.6% 16.6% 5.5% $498.66
Social & Personal Services $76,484 2.9% $1,137.7 5.7% 7.2% -13.4% 16.0% 5.3% $336.87
Utilities $45,086 1.7% $1,378.5 6.9% 4.7% -18.2% 14.5% -39.6% $227.34
Education $86,976 3.3% $236.8 1.2% 9.9% -2.7% 24.9% 13.1% $200.87
Transportation Services $105,851 4.0% $949.7 4.8% 5.7% -20.1% 14.2% -43.9% $159.33
Construction $222,373 8.3% $1,158.4 5.8% 9.1% -18.8% 13.4% 2.6% $157.30
Transportation Equipment $26,387 1.0% $253.2 1.3% 4.8% -7.5% 20.0% -55.1% $111.02
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $63,045 2.4% $426.2 2.1% 5.2% -11.1% 12.6% 3.3% $76.19
Professional & Business Services $88,995 3.3% $987.3 5.0% 5.4% -15.8% 11.5% 1.5% $75.32
Petroleum Refining $86,872 3.2% $665.8 3.3% 19.6% -56.8% 38.0% 1.8% $63.06
Equipment Rental & Leasing $15,283 0.6% $549.2 2.8% 6.6% -16.7% 12.1% 1.8% $50.62
Wholesale Trade $123,310 4.6% $1,097.9 5.5% 6.2% -18.0% 10.5% -43.6% $38.31
Banking & Finance $191,802 7.2% $1,125.5 5.7% 6.5% -20.7% 12.0% 0.6% $36.22
Total $2,675,671 100% $19,909 100% 5.9% -18.3% 14.5% 3.1% $3,272.33
CANADA
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Government $1,613.3 5.5% Star
Construction $1,158.4 2.6% Star
Social & Personal Services $1,137.7 5.3% Star
Banking & Finance $1,125.5 0.6% Star
Professional & Business Services $987.3 1.5% Star
Petroleum Refining $665.8 1.8% Star
Equipment Rental & Leasing $549.2 1.8% Star
Paper & Paper Products $524.3 1.4% Star
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $426.2 3.3% Emerging

Research & Development Services $396.3 1.0% Emerging
Fabricated Metal Products $317.6 0.0% Emerging
Non-Metallic Mineral Products $272.8 -0.8% Emerging
Retail Trade $253.9 1.8% Emerging
Computer Service & Related Activities $148.2 1.9% Emerging
Communication Equipment $110.7 0.9% Emerging
Textiles $53.3 1.0% Emerging
Apparel $16.0 0.8% Emerging
Health & Social Work $4.3 0.8% Emerging

Wholesale Trade $1,097.9 -43.6% Mature

Total $19,908.9 3.1% Star
China
Economic Outlook
The latest data suggest the downturn may be bottoming, but it is still premature to conclude that recovery will be
sharp. For China's economy to achieve a sustainable and robust recovery, strong consumer demand or export
demand is needed.
Risks in the medium-term outlook cannot be overlooked. In fact, China's tax revenue has deteriorated from a
26.1% year-on-year (y/y) growth in the first three quarters of 2008 to an 11.1% contraction in the first four months
of 2009. Additionally, massive loan growth raises the risk of bad loans surfacing down the road.
The main problem for China's economy is the free-falling export demand. Exports account for 36% of Chinese
GDP making China more exposed to external-demand shocks. After export decline eased to 17.1% in March,
from a 21.1% contraction in the first two months of the year, exports fell 22.6% and 26.4% in April and May,
respectively.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, CHINA

(Millions of US$)
$140,000
$120,000
$100,000
$80,000
$60,000
$40,000
$20,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
CHINA

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Utilities $495,161 4.3% $15,297.8 16.3% 18.8% -5.8% 5.0% 6.3% $5,433.63
Food Processing and Services $513,064 4.5% $9,151.2 9.8% 12.7% -4.0% 5.9% 6.6% $3,457.71
Government $475,683 4.2% $3,907.8 4.2% 11.7% 7.0% 10.7% 10.3% $2,479.43
Real Estate $408,707 3.6% $3,692.4 3.9% 13.0% -1.3% 8.1% 10.0% $2,267.41
Construction $824,684 7.2% $4,340.9 4.6% 16.2% -0.5% 7.8% 8.4% $2,160.22
Transportation Services $450,049 4.0% $3,955.1 4.2% 11.0% -7.3% 7.1% 7.8% $1,814.22
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing $147,683 1.3% $3,165.7 3.4% 19.1% -6.3% 6.2% 8.1% $1,496.61
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus $335,269 2.9% $2,688.7 2.9% 21.7% -2.1% 5.4% 7.6% $1,183.04
Textiles $249,895 2.2% $3,232.9 3.4% 18.9% -10.5% 5.4% 6.2% $1,142.11
Wholesale Trade $449,244 3.9% $4,041.9 4.3% 7.9% -4.0% 2.0% 4.9% $1,094.03
Communications Services $184,973 1.6% $2,213.1 2.4% 20.3% -1.4% 6.8% 8.3% $1,088.54
Paper & Paper Products $102,741 0.9% $1,865.9 2.0% 19.5% -4.2% 8.0% 9.3% $1,048.72
Non-Metallic Mineral Products $235,180 2.1% $4,153.3 4.4% 14.5% -2.3% 2.4% 4.4% $1,003.33
Transportation Equipment $200,298 1.8% $1,942.3 2.1% 13.0% -2.4% 7.8% 8.7% $1,000.36
Education $261,329 2.3% $719.0 0.8% 12.8% 9.2% 15.5% 15.9% $786.28
Professional & Business Services $228,722 2.0% $2,564.0 2.7% 15.5% -4.8% 3.6% 5.0% $715.64
Communication Equipment $212,760 1.9% $1,706.2 1.8% 15.0% -7.6% 3.4% 7.2% $714.31
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $862,125 7.6% $5,888.7 6.3% 8.2% -3.8% -0.1% 2.0% $607.86
Chemicals & Chemical Products $612,812 5.4% $1,947.3 2.1% 18.1% -13.8% 6.6% 5.3% $570.04
Equipment Rental & Leasing $35,890 0.3% $1,303.2 1.4% 17.6% -1.7% 5.0% 6.2% $458.47
Total $11,393,651 100% $93,846 100% 14.6% -6.3% 5.8% 6.5% $34,856.60
CHINA
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Transportation Services $3,955.1 7.8% Star
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing $3,165.7 8.1% Star
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus $2,688.7 7.6% Star
Communications Services $2,213.1 8.3% Emerging

Transportation Equipment $1,942.3 8.7% Emerging
Paper & Paper Products $1,865.9 9.3% Emerging
Communication Equipment $1,706.2 7.2% Emerging
Wood & Wood Products $561.6 7.0% Emerging
Social & Personal Services $112.2 7.7% Emerging
Utilities $15,297.8 6.3% Mature

Food Processing and Services $9,151.2 6.6% Mature
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $5,888.7 2.0% Mature
Non-Metallic Mineral Products $4,153.3 4.4% Mature
Wholesale Trade $4,041.9 4.9% Mature
Textiles $3,232.9 6.2% Mature
Petroleum Refining $2,908.4 2.9% Mature
Professional & Business Services $2,564.0 5.0% Mature
Basic Metals Manufacturing $2,210.9 3.8% Low Priority

Chemicals & Chemical Products $1,947.3 5.3% Low Priority
Banking & Finance $1,463.9 4.7% Low Priority
Equipment Rental & Leasing $1,303.2 6.2% Low Priority
Hotels & Restaurants $1,025.4 6.6% Low Priority
Research & Development Services $1,011.2 3.9% Low Priority
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery $995.8 4.0% Low Priority
Fabricated Metal Products $972.1 5.3% Low Priority
Other Manufacturing $825.4 5.5% Low Priority
Printing & Publishing $551.0 4.2% Low Priority
Apparel $504.6 6.5% Low Priority
Leather & Leather Products $392.4 6.2% Low Priority
Motor Vehicles $383.0 6.5% Low Priority
Computer Service & Related Activities $382.5 6.1% Low Priority
Recycling $236.3 2.2% Low Priority
Retail Trade $210.1 6.6% Low Priority
Mining $24.1 5.1% Low Priority
Health & Social Work $4.9 3.4% Low Priority
Total $93,846.5 6.5% Mature
France
Economic Outlook
GDP continued to contract sharply during the first quarter of 2008, and the outlook for the coming months is still
negative. IHS Global Insight currently believes that output is unlikely to grow until at least the first quarter of 2010.
Unemployment edged upward during the fourth quarter of 2008 and is likely to increase even more in the coming
quarters, as weaker output growth and historically low business confidence take their toll on firms' employment
decisions. The latest short-tem data show sharp destruction of jobs in the market sectors, and the situation is
likely to get worse before it gets better.
France's residential house prices are expected to continue to fall at an average of 10% in 2009. The ongoing
credit squeeze is weighing on financial institutions' appetites for house loans. With significantly tightened lending
criteria and rising unemployment it is likely that prices will slow even further.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, FRANCE

(Millions of US$)
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
FRANCE

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Real Estate $453,513 8.7% $3,302.4 9.2% 7.2% -13.8% 4.3% 1.9% $318.81
Government $268,535 5.2% $1,778.1 4.9% 2.7% -8.1% 6.5% 2.5% $232.13
Education $168,433 3.2% $373.5 1.0% 7.6% -4.3% 11.2% 7.8% $169.09
Mining $12,041 0.2% $1.7 0.0% 12.0% -17.9% 2.0% 0.4% $0.04
-
Apparel $12,716 0.2% $46.7 0.1% 5.8% -10.5% 0.8% -0.9% -$2.02
Total $5,185,208 100% $36,021 100% 4.6% -17.1% 2.3% -0.6% -$1,075.29
FRANCE
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Professional & Business Services $4,046.8 -2.6% Star
Construction $1,555.9 -1.5% Star
Banking & Finance $1,302.3 -4.2% Star
Equipment Rental & Leasing $1,173.8 -2.4% Star

Fabricated Metal Products $705.8 -3.7% Emerging


Total $36,020.8 -0.6% Star
Germany
Economic Outlook
The German economy's sharp drop in demand in late 2008 and early 2009 has only been partly reflected in
deteriorating labor-market conditions. Our June forecast therefore predicts GDP growth to plunge from 1.0%
(1.3% unadjusted) in 2008 to -6.0% (-6.1%) in 2009. Prospects for 2010 however, depend on whether global
demand recovers sufficiently in mid-2009 to prevent redundancies from accelerating sharply during the second
half of 2009.
The inflation outlook will remain benign in the foreseeable future due to the unwinding of commodity prices in May
2009. Average inflation will fall from 2.6% in 2008 to 0.3% in 2009, and only rebound mildly to 1.0% in 2010.
Monetary and fiscal policies will increasingly support the economy as 2009 proceeds. Two economic-stimulus
packages were launched in November 2008 and in January 2009 to combat the recession, together worth
between 1.5% and 2.0% of GDP respectively. Any further structural reforms apart from stricter financial market
regulation are now unlikely to be tackled ahead of 2011.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, GERMANY

(Millions of US$)
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
GERMANY

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Education $185,748 2.8% $326.5 0.9% 6.6% -1.9% 11.0% 7.9% $150.01
Government $276,752 4.1% $1,452.3 4.0% 1.0% -8.3% 4.9% 1.4% $101.05
Real Estate $491,467 7.3% $2,836.3 7.9% 3.5% -14.2% 2.3% 0.4% $55.66
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing $98,492 1.5% $1,348.7 3.7% 6.1% -19.3% 2.0% 0.2% $13.20
Mining $21,144 0.3% $1.4 0.0% 10.8% -15.4% 3.3% 1.5% $0.11
Leather & Leather Products $4,581 0.1% $13.3 0.0% 7.1% -12.5% -0.3% -2.0% -$1.28
Apparel $10,326 0.2% $30.0 0.1% 3.5% -15.6% -0.5% -3.1% -$4.39
Recycling $8,439 0.1% $44.3 0.1% 11.2% -30.7% 1.0% -4.8% -$9.69
Textiles $20,035 0.3% $165.6 0.5% 2.3% -21.8% 0.0% -3.0% -$23.47
Research & Development Services $27,843 0.4% $199.4 0.6% 1.6% -15.2% -0.6% -3.5% -$32.22
Total $6,732,994 100% $36,098 100% 3.3% -18.0% 1.0% -1.7% -$2,993.99
GERMANY
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)


Equipment Rental & Leasing $1,662.7 -3.8% Mature
Banking & Finance $1,274.3 -5.1% Mature
Fabricated Metal Products $1,091.8 -4.8% Mature
Construction $1,044.8 -2.4% Mature
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus $830.4 -1.8% Low Priority

Leather & Leather Products $13.3 -2.0% Low Priority
Total $36,097.8 -1.7% Star
India
Economic Outlook
Slightly weaker growth will characterize the Indian economy in moderation during the near term due to the global
financial crisis. Growth slowed substantially to 6.1% in fiscal 2008 and will slow further to 5.6% in fiscal 2009, well
below trend growth.
Prudent monetary policy has ensured macroeconomic stability with a relatively competitive exchange rate,
building reserves, and eased monetary policy to support domestic growth.
India's external finances have improved markedly in recent years with the IT industry and related services
expanding rapidly. Bolstered by service exports and remittances, the current account will continue to incur only
mild deficits, at less than 2.0% of GDP, in the medium term.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, INDIA

(Millions of US$)
$20,000
$18,000
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
INDIA

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Construction $285,080 13.3% $1,255.9 9.0% 15.5% -8.4% 7.1% 6.8% $490.96
Transportation Services $158,131 7.3% $1,322.7 9.5% 9.8% -12.4% 6.3% 5.8% $429.82
Government $114,705 5.3% $788.7 5.7% 7.7% -1.8% 9.6% 8.5% $396.68
Utilities $43,650 2.0% $1,128.7 8.1% 2.0% -13.4% 6.1% 5.3% $329.80
Real Estate $53,874 2.5% $407.4 2.9% 13.6% -6.5% 8.6% 8.4% $202.41
Wholesale Trade $130,096 6.0% $979.6 7.0% 10.2% -10.1% 3.8% 3.6% $191.74
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $255,276 11.9% $1,459.4 10.5% 5.6% -8.3% 2.1% 2.2% $167.13
Education $42,851 2.0% $98.7 0.7% 11.6% 1.3% 15.2% 14.2% $92.88
Banking & Finance $69,734 3.2% $346.1 2.5% 8.4% -12.9% 5.4% 4.1% $76.74
Textiles $25,932 1.2% $280.8 2.0% 7.9% -16.9% 5.3% 4.4% $67.90
Equipment Rental & Leasing $6,680 0.3% $203.0 1.5% 12.2% -9.6% 5.4% 5.7% $64.37
Total $2,151,475 100% $13,942 100% 8.8% -13.1% 6.6% 5.3% $4,071.63
INDIA
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Utilities $1,128.7 5.3% Star
Wholesale Trade $979.6 3.6% Star
Banking & Finance $346.1 4.1% Star

Equipment Rental & Leasing $203.0 5.7% Emerging
Printing & Publishing $97.2 3.6% Emerging
Motor Vehicles $30.5 3.7% Emerging
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $1,459.4 2.2% Mature

Petroleum Refining $742.5 2.1% Mature
Non-Metallic Mineral Products $277.8 2.6% Low Priority

Basic Metals Manufacturing $183.4 3.5% Low Priority
Research & Development Services $152.1 2.6% Low Priority
Fabricated Metal Products $105.8 1.0% Low Priority
Other Manufacturing $57.1 3.5% Low Priority
Recycling $23.4 1.2% Low Priority
Health & Social Work $1.8 1.7% Low Priority
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery $1.0 2.1% Low Priority
Total $13,941.7 5.3% Star
Indonesia
Economic Outlook
Indonesia's economy grew 6.1% in 2008 thanks to good performance through the third quarter. The outlook for
2009, on the other hand, is much worse. We expect scaled-back forecast for the next two years due to capital
flight, erosion of net exports due to falling external demand, and delayed implementation of investment plans.
By summer 2009, we expect to see the policy rate go decrease to about 6.75% due to the central bank's cutting of
rates. With the economy slowing and inflation subsiding, we expect to see more of these rate cuts in the future.
A combination of weaker external demand and sharply lower commodity prices will lower export earnings by over
25% in 2009. The only upside is that commodity imports will also benefit from the price correction. Capital flows
are also expected to enter a more uncertain period as portfolio and direct investments slow.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, INDONESIA

(Millions of US$)
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
INDONESIA

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $158,169 18.1% $1,415.1 16.5% 14.3% -11.3% 7.1% 5.1% $399.12
Government $46,241 5.3% $497.6 5.8% 14.5% -7.1% 12.6% 8.7% $256.65
Utilities $17,091 2.0% $691.6 8.1% 13.3% -15.0% 8.6% -35.8% $239.40
Construction $70,571 8.1% $486.5 5.7% 16.5% -17.4% 7.1% 4.8% $129.79
Wholesale Trade $47,579 5.4% $560.7 6.6% 15.4% -14.4% 5.9% -39.9% $109.64
Transportation Services $30,300 3.5% $321.8 3.8% 16.7% -19.7% 8.0% -45.4% $92.03
Real Estate $14,127 1.6% $167.2 2.0% 18.3% -12.9% 10.4% 8.4% $83.54
Wood & Wood Products $9,360 1.1% $169.9 2.0% 12.8% -20.1% 9.9% -51.4% $61.60
Textiles $12,108 1.4% $205.2 2.4% 13.3% -17.8% 7.8% 5.3% $60.86
Education $12,858 1.5% $46.3 0.5% 18.0% -1.4% 20.5% 16.0% $50.96
Non-Metallic Mineral Products $7,415 0.8% $171.5 2.0% 14.0% -16.9% 4.8% 3.2% $29.72
Total $873,771 100% $8,551 100% 15.2% -14.6% 8.7% 5.9% $2,850.78
INDONESIA
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $1,415.1 5.1% Star
Construction $486.5 4.8% Star
Textiles $205.2 5.3% Star

Non-Metallic Mineral Products $171.5 3.2% Emerging
Real Estate $167.2 8.4% Emerging
Professional & Business Services $159.3 4.7% Emerging
Banking & Finance $101.1 3.6% Emerging
Other Manufacturing $64.1 3.1% Emerging
Basic Metals Manufacturing $46.4 4.2% Emerging
Fabricated Metal Products $27.4 3.6% Emerging
Recycling $13.0 1.8% Emerging
Petroleum Refining $7.7 5.3% Emerging
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery $0.1 3.3% Emerging
Utilities $691.6 -35.8% Mature

Transportation Equipment $232.1 -49.3% Mature
Total $8,550.7 5.9% Star
Italy
Economic Outlook
Italy has grown rapidly since the recession of 2001. It's domestic and export sectors have both performed well
during this period resulting in robust increases in business travel spending. Prospects for the near-term are
unfortunately muted by expectations for a slower domestic recovery and the need for a sustainable economic
recovery among its key trading partners.
The economy started to lose significant momentum from the later stages of 2007 and is set to remain very weak
during 2009 and early 2010. The main obstacle to stronger long-term growth will be modest export performance,
as Italian exports are expected to underperform the growth in the trade-weighted index of world demand for Italian
products.
Total employment is set to fall after a stronger-than-expected performance in recent years. Uncertain business
climate and uneven industrial production will continue to strangle industrial employment, as companies continue
to tightly control their workforces amid the uncertain economic picture.
Fiscal policy will be modest in the next few years as the government strives to keep a lid on the country's public
finances. Italy will remain under pressure to restrain public spending to reduce the general government budget
deficit, which is expected to widen to 4.1% of GDP in 2009 and 4.5% of GDP in 2010.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, ITALY

(Millions of US$)
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
ITALY

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Real Estate $286,526 6.2% $3,683.5 6.5% 7.7% -13.9% 4.5% 1.9% $358.36
Education $123,483 2.7% $483.4 0.8% 7.4% -3.1% 11.0% 8.2% $233.92
Government $186,357 4.0% $2,178.5 3.8% 4.0% -8.6% 5.0% 1.9% $209.94
Apparel $51,096 1.1% $331.1 0.6% 10.9% -8.3% 2.8% 0.6% $10.76
Mining $14,709 0.3% $3.3 0.0% 13.3% -19.0% 2.6% 0.5% $0.09
Recycling $5,538 0.1% $64.7 0.1% 1.3% -27.1% 2.6% -3.4% -$10.18
Communications Services $85,764 1.9% $1,460.1 2.6% 6.1% -14.4% 1.6% -0.2% -$15.97
Motor Vehicles $59,760 1.3% $147.6 0.3% 4.9% -29.6% 0.9% -3.5% -$23.91
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus $54,155 1.2% $618.0 1.1% 6.7% -17.2% -0.1% -1.0% -$28.92
Total $4,601,475 100% $56,937 100% 4.9% -18.0% 1.3% -1.2% -$3,235.73
ITALY
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Hotels & Restaurants $1,360.6 -1.0% Star


Fabricated Metal Products $2,025.6 -2.8% Mature
Non-Metallic Mineral Products $1,690.2 -3.9% Mature
Petroleum Refining $1,080.6 -2.1% Low Priority

Total $56,936.5 -1.2% Mature
Japan
Economic Outlook
Japan's GDP fell precipitously in the fourth quarter of 2008 largely due to plunging overseas demand. There is no
reason for optimism in the near term: the slump in Europe and the United States will limit export demand, while
low confidence causes households to save rather than spend.
The Japanese and global economies should hit bottom in mid-to-late 2009. Only in 2010, as the world economy
strengthens, will Japan rebound on the back of surging exports.
Continued yen strength is the least of Japan's problems. In theory, the strong yen should hurt Japan's exports.
But the main problem for exports is the decline in overseas demand. When the developed economies recover in
2009-10, Japan's exports will rebound quickly.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, JAPAN

(Millions of US$)
$100,000
$90,000
$80,000
$70,000
$60,000
$50,000
$40,000
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
JAPAN

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Social & Personal Services $1,534,570 14.7% $18,119.1 24.4% 15.1% 3.5% 7.2% 4.9% $4,861.70
Real Estate $660,786 6.3% $4,689.7 6.3% 1.9% 6.9% 7.5% 6.2% $1,646.18
Utilities $306,128 2.9% $7,429.7 10.0% -0.2% -2.1% 5.9% -34.6% $1,449.31
Government $406,657 3.9% $2,624.4 3.5% -0.3% 8.2% 7.3% 5.4% $794.69
Food Processing and Services $321,201 3.1% $4,500.6 6.1% -1.9% 2.9% 6.0% 2.6% $625.80
Wholesale Trade $637,065 6.1% $4,502.6 6.1% -0.6% -0.3% 3.1% -41.7% $517.99
Education $216,861 2.1% $468.7 0.6% 3.3% 26.8% 17.7% 15.8% $508.14
Transportation Services $401,665 3.8% $2,762.3 3.7% -0.7% -5.5% 5.4% -46.7% $434.19
Communications Services $184,285 1.8% $1,732.1 2.3% 1.7% 3.4% 5.2% 3.7% $347.55
Hotels & Restaurants $330,637 3.2% $1,508.9 2.0% -0.7% 1.1% 6.8% 3.9% $315.99
Construction $587,953 5.6% $2,431.2 3.3% -3.2% -3.7% 5.1% 2.0% $257.25
Petroleum Refining $272,330 2.6% $1,656.8 2.2% 9.3% -46.9% 27.2% 2.3% $203.22
Professional & Business Services $355,393 3.4% $3,129.6 4.2% -1.5% -0.5% 2.7% 1.0% $157.89
Equipment Rental & Leasing $63,295 0.6% $1,805.5 2.4% -0.9% -3.1% 4.7% 1.4% $132.10
Retail Trade $400,258 3.8% $608.6 0.8% -2.8% -1.2% 3.8% 2.6% $82.58
Transportation Equipment $51,449 0.5% $391.9 0.5% 0.5% 1.6% 7.8% -63.6% $80.75
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $145,652 1.4% $781.5 1.1% 0.5% 5.6% 3.2% 1.9% $76.65
Total $10,472,092 100% $74,299 100% 2.0% -1.8% 6.1% 3.3% $12,989.32
JAPAN
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Professional & Business Services $3,129.6 1.0% Star
Banking & Finance $2,082.9 -0.2% Star
Equipment Rental & Leasing $1,805.5 1.4% Star
Communications Services $1,732.1 3.7% Emerging

Petroleum Refining $1,656.8 2.3% Emerging
Hotels & Restaurants $1,508.9 3.9% Emerging
Communication Equipment $1,183.6 0.4% Emerging


Total $74,299.2 3.3% Star
Netherlands
Economic Outlook
IHS Global Insight now expects the Dutch economy to contract 3.2% in 2009. Tight credit-market conditions and
lower demand from abroad will limit overall growth in the near term. On the other hand, the economy will benefit
from falling interest rates across the Eurozone.
As of right now, the labor-market situation has not deteriorated and the unemployment rate still remains very low.
The turmoil in the global financial sector however, has hit consumer and business confidence and is set to
negatively affect the labor market, consumption, investment, and exports in 2009.
Fiscal position is expected to deteriorate in 2009, following marked improvements in the past three years. The
Dutch government has recently stated that it expects a budget deficit in excess of 3.0% of GDP in 2009. In
addition, the government debt will rise sharply as a result of the Dutch government's intervention to prop up the
banking sector.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, NETHERLANDS

(Millions of US$)
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
NETHERLANDS

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Real Estate $91,008 5.4% $1,109.5 5.6% 6.3% -14.5% 4.2% 1.6% $90.66
Education $45,880 2.7% $170.3 0.9% 9.6% -3.0% 11.1% 7.5% $74.49
Government $95,965 5.7% $1,063.8 5.4% 5.0% -8.8% 4.9% 1.3% $70.37
Motor Vehicles $13,852 0.8% $32.4 0.2% 5.0% -19.3% 2.9% 0.2% $0.24
Mining $43,135 2.6% $0.7 0.0% 15.5% -19.2% 3.1% 0.3% $0.01
Leather & Leather Products $489 0.0% $3.0 0.0% 6.6% -9.5% 0.5% -1.0% -$0.15
Apparel $1,155 0.1% $7.1 0.0% 7.4% -9.4% 0.9% -1.1% -$0.39
Transportation Equipment $9,094 0.5% $119.0 0.6% 0.5% -13.5% 3.9% -0.3% -$2.01
Recycling $1,839 0.1% $20.4 0.1% 8.7% -26.1% 3.6% -2.2% -$2.13
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery $2,584 0.2% $9.5 0.0% -1.9% -19.3% -3.5% -5.4% -$2.31
Total $1,687,467 100% $19,771 100% 5.0% -17.4% 2.3% -1.1% -$1,031.17
NETHERLANDS
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Petroleum Refining $654.2 -1.0% Star

Paper & Paper Products $220.0 -0.1% Emerging

Food Processing and Services $2,052.6 -1.4% Mature
Construction $840.7 -1.4% Mature

Total $19,770.9 -1.1% Mature
Russia
Economic Outlook
The Russian economy will suffer a deep recession in 2009 and a weak recovery in 2010 thanks to the sharp
decline in world-market energy prices and tight credit markets worldwide
Shrinking net exports and a large net outflow of capital have put significant downward pressure on the rouble. The
fundamental actions of the CBR are replaying the developments of the 1998 collapse of the rouble and are
seriously threatening macroeconomic stability.
Lower oil prices will have a major impact on the revenue side. Not only will fiscal revenues fall below target
because of the slowing economy, but recent injections of liquidity into the banking system will reinforce
inflationary pressures.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, RUSSIA

(Millions of US$)
$20,000
$18,000
$16,000
$14,000
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
RUSSIA

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Education $60,492 2.2% $141.4 0.8% 15.7% -12.4% 10.3% 5.9% $47.28
Mining $203,103 7.4% $4.6 0.0% 18.9% -28.3% 1.6% -2.1% -$0.46
Health & Social Work $73,173 2.6% $2.5 0.0% 3.6% -52.6% 20.6% -7.1% -$0.75
Apparel $4,163 0.2% $16.1 0.1% 25.7% -20.9% -2.6% -4.8% -$3.53
Medical, Precision & Optical Instruments $12,307 0.4% $83.8 0.4% 36.7% -24.0% 3.2% -1.3% -$5.13
Industrial Machinery & Equipment $30,809 1.1% $85.5 0.5% 22.9% -23.3% 0.8% -1.2% -$5.17
Motor Vehicles $16,680 0.6% $24.6 0.1% 15.4% -35.1% -0.7% -5.5% -$6.09
Textiles $3,142 0.1% $34.5 0.2% 11.8% -26.7% -3.2% -5.3% -$8.23
Other Manufacturing $7,081 0.3% $51.3 0.3% 14.5% -30.7% -1.6% -6.1% -$13.95
Government $162,524 5.9% $1,134.3 6.1% 13.4% -15.2% 3.0% -0.2% -$14.10
Recycling $7,089 0.3% $49.5 0.3% 23.0% -43.5% 2.2% -7.7% -$16.25
Communication Equipment $11,011 0.4% $75.0 0.4% 24.9% -30.8% -4.5% -6.1% -$20.17
Computer Service & Related Activities $17,117 0.6% $99.0 0.5% 11.9% -24.7% -2.2% -5.0% -$22.28
Total $2,761,596 100% $18,676 100% 16.3% -28.0% 0.3% -3.9% -$3,400.20
RUSSIA
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Government $1,134.3 -0.2% Star
Transportation Services $819.6 -4.2% Star
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $735.2 -3.7% Star
Real Estate $693.0 -1.2% Star
Professional & Business Services $664.3 -5.5% Star
Social & Personal Services $390.6 -2.9% Emerging

Equipment Rental & Leasing $356.0 -3.7% Emerging
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing $245.7 -4.6% Emerging
Industrial Machinery & Equipment $85.5 -1.2% Emerging
Medical, Precision & Optical Instruments $83.8 -1.3% Emerging
Mining $4.6 -2.1% Emerging


Total $18,676.1 -3.9% Star
South Korea
Economic Outlook
The dramatic drop in fourth quarter GDP means that Korea should be near a bottom. Further declines should be
small but will result in layoffs throughout the first half of the year, as well as falling corporate profits. Korea's high
level of competitiveness should, however, prevent a further downward spiral.
Trade balances are projected to rise, as import contracts recognize lower commodity prices and the weak won
improves the terms of trade. This paradoxically will cause the won to appreciate, albeit slowly.
The unemployment rate will rise in the near term but should be limited. But, if the labor market has become more
flexible—or if memories of the Asian Crisis are strong—then firms could lay off large numbers of workers, causing
a repeat of the year-long 1998 contraction.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, SOUTH KOREA

(Millions of US$)
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
SOUTH KOREA

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Utilities $57,474 2.6% $2,526.6 10.1% 11.0% -24.5% 31.4% -33.5% $724.06
Real Estate $81,832 3.6% $1,052.0 4.2% 7.3% -18.6% 31.1% 6.8% $411.67
Transportation Services $114,982 5.1% $1,652.1 6.6% 9.5% -27.8% 28.1% -39.5% $379.71
Government $83,131 3.7% $971.8 3.9% 7.4% -14.3% 29.3% 5.9% $319.78
Construction $165,413 7.4% $1,238.9 4.9% 5.4% -23.3% 28.3% 4.1% $274.59
Education $66,119 2.9% $258.9 1.0% 13.7% -9.7% 39.6% 13.5% $227.71
Petroleum Refining $114,986 5.1% $1,267.1 5.1% 14.3% -61.3% 56.0% 2.8% $186.85
Communication Equipment $137,517 6.1% $1,569.2 6.3% 11.9% -30.6% 24.9% 2.3% $185.06
Wholesale Trade $52,644 2.3% $674.0 2.7% 5.8% -25.2% 27.5% -49.8% $122.38
Total $2,242,885 100% $25,051 100% 8.4% -27.8% 30.0% 3.9% $5,351.13
SOUTH KOREA
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Communication Equipment $1,569.2 2.3% Star
Petroleum Refining $1,267.1 2.8% Star
Banking & Finance $910.6 1.5% Star
Non-Metallic Mineral Products $644.0 0.1% Star
Chemicals & Chemical Products $605.0 3.8% Star

Basic Metals Manufacturing $523.0 0.9% Emerging
Other Manufacturing $121.4 0.4% Emerging
Recycling $45.0 0.2% Emerging
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery $28.0 0.1% Emerging

Transportation Equipment $623.2 -49.8% Mature

Total $25,051.0 3.9% Star
Spain
Economic Outlook
The economy is set to contract in 2009 and 2010. Real GDP is projected to contract 4.2% (revised up from a
4.4% fall) in 2009 and 1.2% (up from a 1.5% fall) in 2010 after a 1.2% gain in 2008, according to the June
forecasts. The outlook for 2009 remains gloomy, reflecting the continued steep falls in industrial production, retail
sales, and business and construction activity in the first four months of 2009.
Private consumption is expected to contract in 2009 and 2010 as households rein in their spending when faced
with rising unemployment and the need to lower their excessive debt levels.
Spanish construction activity is set to contract sharply. The Spanish housing market is being enveloped by
oversupply. We do accept that the conditions are in place for a prolonged and steep slump in residential
construction.
The government is struggling to revive the economy, which has been derailed by the troubled housing market,
record-high consumer indebtedness, and the global credit squeeze. Consequently, the government has pledged
to spend 70 billion euro on economic- and financial-stimulus measures.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, SPAIN

(Millions of US$)
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
SPAIN

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Education $81,457 2.7% $172.7 0.9% 10.9% -1.4% 13.7% 9.7% $102.31
Government $132,431 4.4% $838.6 4.3% 7.4% -5.8% 1.6% 2.1% $91.54
Real Estate $182,304 6.1% $1,269.5 6.5% 9.9% -16.4% 1.2% 0.4% $27.86
Mining $10,052 0.3% $1.6 0.0% 19.8% -21.8% -0.3% -1.1% -$0.09
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery $1,739 0.1% $3.6 0.0% -8.3% -22.8% -6.8% -7.3% -$1.15
Research & Development Services $1,334 0.0% $11.5 0.1% 11.7% -15.0% -2.1% -2.8% -$1.55
Apparel $10,448 0.4% $36.7 0.2% 7.8% -12.7% -1.3% -1.8% -$3.20
Recycling $6,271 0.2% $39.7 0.2% 5.2% -29.6% 0.4% -4.0% -$7.26
Motor Vehicles $73,160 2.5% $97.9 0.5% 5.9% -26.9% 1.3% -1.9% -$8.89
Total $2,982,442 100% $19,487 100% 7.3% -18.7% 0.1% -1.4% -$1,307.41
SPAIN
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Professional & Business Services $1,221.4 -2.6% Star
Hotels & Restaurants $796.8 -0.7% Star
Equipment Rental & Leasing $480.1 -3.7% Star

Banking & Finance $438.7 -3.6% Emerging

Fabricated Metal Products $501.4 -4.3% Mature

Total $19,486.7 -1.4% Star
Sweden
Economic Outlook
The economy has been in recession since the third quarter of 2008, the main development being markedly
weaker export sales that were hurt by falling US and Eurozone demands. Meanwhile, domestic spending is likely
to cool substantially, stemming from weaker business investment.
Interest rates are set to fall more quickly than previously anticipated and concerns about inflation becoming too
low remain significant. The Riksbank also stressed that the repo rate is likely to remain very low in 2009 and early
2010, probably held at its current level of 0.5%.
The fiscal balance is expected to deteriorate markedly in 2009 and 2010. The government is now expecting deficit
of 3.1% of GDP in 2009 which is projected to widen to 5.1% of GDP in 2010 before falling back to 4.2% in 2011.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, SWEDEN

(Millions of US$)
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
SWEDEN

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Real Estate $71,507 7.8% $871.7 8.6% 4.1% -13.9% 12.9% 4.3% $206.55
Education $35,666 3.9% $132.4 1.3% 8.3% -5.6% 21.7% 11.3% $93.63
Government $40,129 4.4% $444.9 4.4% 1.5% -11.4% 13.0% 3.6% $87.06
Transportation Services $70,473 7.7% $1,026.9 10.1% 4.6% -21.2% 11.3% 1.5% $79.88
Utilities $19,529 2.1% $814.1 8.0% 3.8% -19.0% 11.3% 1.8% $76.02
Food Processing and Services $24,458 2.7% $588.7 5.8% 1.6% -18.8% 11.1% 1.3% $40.06
Wood & Wood Products $14,001 1.5% $261.8 2.6% 7.6% -25.0% 11.6% 1.2% $15.79
Construction $41,860 4.6% $297.3 2.9% 5.8% -19.3% 8.4% 0.7% $10.49
Total $911,623 100% $10,147 100% 4.2% -20.0% 10.9% 1.5% $788.64
SWEDEN
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Utilities $814.1 1.8% Star
Food Processing and Services $588.7 1.3% Star
Paper & Paper Products $477.0 1.9% Star
Wood & Wood Products $261.8 1.2% Star


Construction $297.3 0.7% Mature
Computer Service & Related Activities $260.7 -0.1% Mature
Fabricated Metal Products $247.1 -1.4% Mature

Banking & Finance $193.1 -2.7% Low Priority
Petroleum Refining $177.9 0.2% Low Priority
Communication Equipment $152.3 0.0% Low Priority
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $116.3 0.6% Low Priority
Textiles $20.9 0.6% Low Priority
Total $10,147.0 1.5% Star
Turkey
Economic Outlook
The macroeconomic stability that the country maintained in the immediate aftermath of the sharp worsening of the
global economic crisis has begun to crack, lending urgency to the final negotiations regarding potential
International Monetary Fund (IMF) support.
A loss of export demand from the European Union (EU) and the Middle East has sent domestic production
spiraling downward with most of the overall economic downturn occurring in the first half of 2009. GDP
contraction will continue on through the rest of the year and throughout most of 2010 as well.
Although momentum toward convergence has slowed, economic reforms and policy decisions aimed at aligning
the Turkish economy with EU standards will continue.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, TURKEY

(Millions of US$)
$12,000
$10,000
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
TURKEY

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Real Estate $70,065 5.8% $684.8 6.3% 20.9% -23.1% 2.6% 1.0% $33.92
Education $23,355 1.9% $69.5 0.6% 12.9% -14.3% 10.4% 7.4% $29.86
Medical, Precision & Optical Instruments $205 0.0% $1.8 0.0% 12.1% -23.4% 3.9% 1.2% $0.11
Mining $21,614 1.8% $3.0 0.0% 26.8% -31.1% 0.7% -1.6% -$0.23
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery $475 0.0% $1.4 0.0% 5.6% -30.4% -6.1% -7.0% -$0.42
Transportation Equipment $693 0.1% $7.3 0.1% 2.3% -28.9% 1.4% -2.5% -$0.88
Social & Personal Services $13,271 1.1% $215.8 2.0% 9.0% -25.6% 2.4% -0.1% -$1.59
Recycling $1,451 0.1% $12.9 0.1% 6.0% -38.3% 2.7% -3.9% -$2.32
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing $9,551 0.8% $221.5 2.0% 11.3% -29.2% 2.7% -0.3% -$3.09
Apparel $8,925 0.7% $44.0 0.4% 9.5% -22.3% -0.4% -1.9% -$4.11
Motor Vehicles $17,242 1.4% $32.4 0.3% 11.8% -44.1% 1.0% -5.8% -$8.32
Other Manufacturing $6,060 0.5% $55.9 0.5% 4.7% -31.0% -0.1% -3.3% -$8.69
Total $1,205,016 100% $10,890 100% 9.2% -28.6% 0.7% -2.3% -$1,216.45
TURKEY
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Utilities $870.4 -1.3% Star
Government $513.8 -1.0% Star
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing $221.5 -0.3% Emerging

Social & Personal Services $215.8 -0.1% Emerging
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $990.5 -4.3% Mature

Food Processing and Services $826.6 -2.3% Mature
Construction $244.7 -2.3% Low Priority

Total $10,890.3 -2.3% Mature
United Kingdom
Economic Outlook
GDP plunged by 1.9% quarter-on-quarter (q/q) and 4.1% year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter of 2009, following
contraction of 1.6% q/q in the fourth quarter of 2008 and 0.7% q/q in the third. The first-quarter q/q and y/y
declines were both the sharpest for nearly 30 years.
On a more positive note, the rate of contraction has slowed substantially in the second quarter, and it is possible
that the economy could even be close to stabilizing. Economic activity is benefiting from the monetary and fiscal-
policy stimulus that was enacted. We now project GDP to contract 3.7% in 2009 and to edge up 0.3% in 2010.
Inflation will be brought down by more weak economic activity, rising spare capacity, deepening pay moderation,
and favorable base effects. We are forecasting inflation to average 1.5% in 2009 and 1.3% in 2010.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, UNITED KINGDOM

(Millions of US$)
$50,000
$45,000
$40,000
$35,000
$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
UNITED KINGDOM

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Government $255,651 5.2% $2,205.3 5.2% 4.6% -16.6% 12.4% 4.6% $551.24
Education $204,200 4.2% $589.9 1.4% 8.6% -13.9% 17.7% 9.6% $341.13
Real Estate $297,681 6.1% $2,823.9 6.6% 6.5% -26.1% 7.8% 1.3% $184.19
Communications Services $119,512 2.4% $1,501.4 3.5% 4.1% -22.0% 7.6% 1.6% $122.85
Utilities $138,737 2.8% $4,500.7 10.6% 3.2% -26.5% 6.4% 0.2% $56.11
Transportation Equipment $41,065 0.8% $418.1 1.0% -1.8% -23.2% 10.1% 2.1% $44.86
Mining $105,552 2.2% $3.0 0.0% 12.9% -31.5% 7.5% 0.1% $0.02
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $48,079 1.0% $344.8 0.8% 1.7% -22.3% 5.3% 0.0% -$0.82
Apparel $6,005 0.1% $28.7 0.1% 0.8% -19.6% 6.6% -0.8% -$1.19
Recycling $2,493 0.1% $21.5 0.1% 1.4% -35.5% 6.8% -2.7% -$2.79
Office, Accounting & Computing Machinery $8,825 0.2% $25.2 0.1% -10% -29.6% 1.3% -4.0% -$4.60
Chemicals & Chemical Products $124,814 2.5% $416.5 1.0% 4.7% -31.4% 6.7% -0.4% -$8.98
Total $4,904,291 100% $42,567 100% 3.1% -27.3% 6.3% -0.2% -$480.00
UNITED KINGDOM
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Communications Services $1,501.4 1.6% Star



Paper & Paper Products $453.7 -1.4% Low Priority
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus $238.8 -1.6% Low Priority
Total $42,567.3 -0.2% Star
United States
Economic Outlook
The economy remains on track to bottom out soon—at least in output terms. We expect the rate of contraction in
GDP to slow in the current quarter (to minus 2.8%), before GDP edges higher in the second half of the year. A
rapid recovery is not in prospect, though, after such an extreme financial shock.
We expect to see jobs declining for the rest of the year, but progressively less rapidly. And a retreat in the
unemployment rate—now 9.4%—requires not just that jobs grow, but that they grow faster than the labor force.
Inflation is not a danger now, but could become one eventually. The more difficult problem will be for the federal
government to deal with the budget deficit. The stimulus package, financial bailout costs, and recession will take
the federal budget deficit to US$1.5 trillion in 2009 and US$1.2 trillion in 2010.
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, UNITED STATES

(Millions of US$)
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$0
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08E 09F 10F 11F 12F 13F
UNITED STATES

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Government $2,232,754 8.3% $21,351 8.2% 3.1% 9.0% 4.7% 4.1% $4,701.21
Real Estate $2,329,407 8.6% $24,496 9.4% 4.4% -10.4% 2.5% 1.9% $2,440.43
Education $1,062,217 3.9% $3,402 1.3% 7.1% 9.7% 11.1% 11.0% $2,326.07
Social & Personal Services $1,029,765 3.8% $18,016 6.9% 2.4% -6.6% 2.5% 2.2% $2,080.94
Communications Services $934,632 3.5% $13,016 5.0% 3.6% -2.5% 1.3% 2.4% $1,603.01
Utilities $512,684 1.9% $18,437 7.1% 2.3% -12.7% 3.9% 1.3% $1,267.13
Food Processing and Services $748,649 2.8% $15,543 5.9% -0.3% -5.9% 0.9% 0.9% $734.46
Transportation Equipment $222,807 0.8% $2,515 1.0% -2.4% -3.1% 4.2% 3.4% $462.69
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing $208,478 0.8% $5,202 2.0% 2.2% -15.6% 1.9% 1.3% $346.74
Hotels & Restaurants $741,708 2.8% $5,015 1.9% 1.5% -7.7% 1.5% 1.2% $310.38
Medical, Precision & Optical Instruments $91,646 0.3% $855 0.3% 0.4% -1.8% 3.4% 4.4% $204.17
Industrial Machinery & Equipment $309,917 1.2% $1,178 0.5% 2.7% -12.6% 0.6% 1.1% $67.83
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus $110,513 0.4% $1,032 0.4% -0.1% -7.5% -1.1% 1.2% $61.51
Paper & Paper Products $168,900 0.6% $3,570 1.4% 1.0% -17.9% 1.3% 0.2% $27.94
Private Households Employees $18,683 0.1% $0.3 0.0% 3.6% 6.2% 13.5% 12.3% $0.23
Leather & Leather Products $4,461 0.0% $24 0.0% -1.0% -8.9% -0.9% -1.5% -$1.74
Mining $626,334 2.3% $26 0.0% -43% -20.3% -4.4% -1.9% -$2.39
Health & Social Work $1,693,585 6.3% $78 0.0% -7.8% -38.1% 22.4% -1.6% -$6.12
Apparel $23,276 0.1% $123 0.0% -3.3% -7.4% -1.4% -1.2% -$7.48
Transportation Services $843,098 3.1% $9,261 3.5% 1.2% -12.7% 0.5% 0.0% -$21.77
Total $26,936,874 100% $261,362 100% 1.9% -10.3% 1.1% 0.3% $4,161.10
UNITED STATES
Industry
Status
(2008, mn US$) (CAGR, 2009-2013)
Communications Services $13,016.0 2.4% Star
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing $5,201.7 1.3% Emerging

Hotels & Restaurants $5,015.4 1.2% Emerging
Education $3,401.8 11.0% Emerging
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $3,330.3 -0.2% Emerging
Transportation Equipment $2,514.8 3.4% Emerging
Industrial Machinery & Equipment $1,178.5 1.1% Emerging
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus $1,031.6 1.2% Emerging

Research & Development Services $15,224.7 -2.4% Mature
Petroleum Refining $6,709.0 -0.7% Mature
Printing & Publishing $4,416.3 -4.5% Low Priority

Fabricated Metal Products $3,446.3 -2.9% Low Priority
Computer Service & Related Activities $3,359.3 -1.1% Low Priority
Communication Equipment $2,710.1 -2.9% Low Priority
Retail Trade $2,704.4 -0.6% Low Priority
Chemicals & Chemical Products $2,520.0 -0.6% Low Priority
Non-Metallic Mineral Products $2,414.6 -4.3% Low Priority
Recycling $1,582.8 -2.3% Low Priority
Wood & Wood Products $1,359.6 -1.9% Low Priority
Mining $25.6 -1.9% Low Priority
Total $261,362.3 0.3% Star
U.S Business Travel Market
The business travel market in the U.S. is of particular importance to this entire research effort. As we have learned in the
previous section, the U.S. comprises about 28% of all global business travel spending. It is the
proverbial 800 pound gorilla. Secondly, for many NBTA members -be they suppliers, corporate,
or travel management companies - the U.S. is their largest market. Finally, from a data collection
standpoint, there is more available to help measure and describe the U.S. travel market.
IHS Global Insight estimates that U.S. business travel market reached $261 billion in 2008, down
about 3% from the year before. Domestic business travel dominates, comprising 85% of total.
Outbound international, at $38 billion, makes up the difference. As a key input and controllable expense for the typical
business, travel fully participates in business cycles. Leading into and during recessions, business travel feels the pinch
of cost control measures. During periods of expansion, business travel grows in lockstep with expanding revenue and
margin. Unfortunately, we currently find ourselves in the deepest part of the second worst post-war recession on record.
Our 2008 and 2009 business travel measures reflect current and future weakness -more on this topic in the next section.
U.S. Business travel increased each year during the period 2003-2007, and then the party abruptly ended. The official
beginning of the current recession was December 2007. Many parts of the economy slogged along for another 8-9
months before housing and credit markets began to unravel. Businesses were already beginning to rationalize business
travel by Q4 2008, but when the economy hit a brick wall in September, the business travel faucet was tightened
dramatically. Moreover, the media began to vilify certain types of travel, especially meeting and convention trips to more
popular destinations. These factors conspired to push 2008 business travel spending down by 3%, with a further decline
of 10% expected in 2009.
Business travel spending reacts to a number of underlying forces (among others) including: (1) changes in the number of
trips taken, (2) changes in trip budgets, (3) changes in travel prices, and (4) changes in the typical length of a trip.
Business travel spending can be interpreted as the residual outcome of the interplay of all of these measures of travel
activity.
U.S. business travel volume is charted below. The numbers include all types of business trips including day trips. In the
first chart, domestic business travel is depicted. We have separated transient business from group meeting & convention
trips, the former comprising the majority (about 60-65%) of trips.
U.S. Domestic Business Travel Volume
900.0 15%
Domesic Person-Stays in Millions
800.0
10%
700.0
5%
600.0
Yr-to-Yr %
500.0 0%
400.0 -5%
300.0
-10%
200.0
-15%
100.0
0.0 -20%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Group & Convention Transient Business

Yr-to-Yr % Group & Convention (right) Yr-to-Yr % Transient (right)
Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates, IHS Global Insight
US domestic business travel volume fell to an estimated 694 million Person-Stays in 2008, down 12.5% from the year
before. A Person-Stay recognizes that a business trip often includes multiple destinations or stays. As such, Person-
Stays is closer to the concept of a hotel room night. Given the constraints placed on travel by employers during the year,
as well as the previously-mentioned "vilification" factor, Group Meeting & Convention Person-Stays fell by 14.5% in 2008.
The second chart describes outbound international business travel. These trips are more difficult to typify, but with the
help of sources such as the U.S. Department of Commerce's Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, the Bureau of
Economic Analysis, and StatsCan, IHS Global Insight is able to estimate this component of U.S. business travel.
The D.K. Shifflet & Associates ongoing panel database of domestic US travel not only provides accurate measures of the
level of business travel, it also allows us to describe the behavior of these travelers. A complete profile of the U.S.
business traveler is provided in a separate section of this report.
IHS Global Insight has also developed measures of business travel spending across a number of dimensions. First, we
provide a look at travel spending by major category, focusing on those that comprise the lion share of the trip budget and
reimbursed by the traveler's employer. Again, all business trips are included regardless of the length of stay or trip
purpose.
US Domestic Business Travel Spending

by Category
$250,000
$200,000
All Other
$150,000 Food
Other Ground Transport
Air
$100,000 Rental Car
Room
$50,000
$0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008e
Source: D.K. Shifflet & Associates, IHS Global Insight
Most of the categories descriptions are self-evident, except perhaps "All Other". Since we are attempting to capture all
trip spending, regardless of trip purpose, length or employee reimbursement, a category was added to include
entertainment, shopping, insurance, and other miscellaneous trip expenditures.
Next, we view business travel from the perspective of the company (industries) that sponsor the trip. The chart below
identifies U.S. business travel spending on both domestic and outbound international trips by major industry sector. The
level of business spending is both a function of the size of the industry and the extent to which business travel is a critical
input.
As we have mentioned in the Global Business Travel Analysis section of this report, industries use business travel
differently and at varying levels. Professional & Business Services require business trips to sell, fulfill, and manage the
services they offer to their clients. Business travel is obviously an integral part of their production recipe. Mining, on the
other hand, uses travel much less intensely, particularly when compared to the industry's total revenue.
U.S. BUSINESS TRAVEL & TRAVEL-INTENSITY:
For the Top 20 Industries Ranked on 2008 Travel Spending
Source: IHS Global Insight, US Bureau of Economic Analysis, D.K. Shifflet & Associates
From a supplier, buyer, travel manager, and travel management company point of view, this analysis can help to prioritize
market segments for opportunity and risk. Consider:
Large sectors tend to engage in more business travel spending, regardless of its share of total costs
Sectors with high intensity rates (Business Travel Spend Per Dollar of Revenue) view travel as a critical input and
would be more likely to listen to proposals for productivity or cost savings
Industries that are highly concentrated with a smaller number of large players tend to have greater central control
of procurement and cost management
Sectors with widely dispersed markets and/or supply chains will require more business travel to maintain and
grow their businesses.
The best market segments are those that are large (Wholesale Trade), have a high travel-intensity factor (Prof &
Business Services), and tend to be highly concentrated
The travel intensity rates for your industry sector can be used to benchmark your own company against the
industry-wide averages. Are you traveling less than the average? If so, is there room to grow business travel to
improve sales, operations, training, or customer service?
Finally, IHS Global Insight breaks out US business travel by job function of the traveler. Job function is another business
travel market segment that is used to penetrate markets. Using data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics,
D.K. Shifflet & Associates, the DOC's Office of Travel & Tourism Industries, and IHS Global Insight, our project team has
been able to estimate business travel volume and spending by job function.
U.S. BUSINESS TRAVEL VOLUME & SPENDING BY OCCUPATION
Includes both Domestic & International Outbound Trips
Source: IHS Global Insight, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, D.K. Shifflet & Associates, NBTA
The occupations that float to the top of the ranking of business trip volume should not surprise those that serve the
industry. Sales, financial, and management occupations take the lion share of trips and spend the majority of T&E
budgets. Keep in mind that jobs designated as Sales or Management above includes every industry. Consequently, retail
auto sales people, telephone sales technicians, and real estate agents, for example, are included in "Sales and related
occupations". This helps to explain both the relatively low annual salary number and relatively high percentage of total
business trips and spending associated with this category. Although beyond the scope of the current research project,
this data could be further broken out by industry. This would provide for a more precise break-out of job functions within.
Taken together, all Sales & Management occupations took an estimated 226 millions trips in 2008. This represents half of
all trips. The percentage of travel spending is essentially the same in the table. In reality, we would expect that even
more of the spending would be executed by these occupations. Anecdotally, they take longer trips (distance and
duration) and tend to stay in more expensive accommodations. Without data to specifically measure these differences,
IHS Global Insight was forced to apply the overall average spend-per-trip to every occupation on the list. This would be
an excellent topic for follow-up research.
The next section of the report documents our view of the prospects for business travel in the immediate future and
beyond. IHS Global Insight has built an econometric model to forecast business travel volume and spending on a
quarterly basis. The projections of business travel through 2013 are driven by a number of external factors including
economic drivers, oil prices, hotel rates, and relative industry performance (and their travel intensity). The section
includes a story-behind-the-numbers that helps to frame our view of business travel for the next few years.
U.S. Business Travel Forecast
U.S. MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Executive Summary
The recession remains severe, but a bottom is in sight, at least for output if not
employment. We expect GDP to begin to grow—albeit slowly—in the second half of the
year.
Recovery is expected to be slow, since credit conditions will stay tight. The economy still contracts 3.0% during
2009, before growing 1.4% in 2010. The unemployment rate reaches 10.3%.
Deflation fears have receded. Inflation remains a risk for the future, but not an imminent threat. Headline CPI
inflation is in negative territory and wage inflation is falling, not rising.
Bond yields have backed up as fears for the economy have diminished. But we think that it is too soon for a major
bear market in bonds. Governments and central banks are trying to unfreeze lending markets, but credit
conditions will ease only slowly.
The market is too weak to allow GM and Chrysler to survive in current form, and we assume that their
negotiations with stakeholders and the government will end in some form of pre-packaged bankruptcy, from which
smaller and leaner entities will emerge. In the case of Chrysler, survival in any form will be contingent upon a deal
with Fiat.
The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has cut its federal funds target to a range of 0.0–0.25%. We assume that this
target stays in place for all of 2009, and that the Fed begins to tighten only in the fourth quarter of 2010.
Real federal defense purchases rose 7.2% in calendar year 2008, but we expect a smaller 4.6% increase in 2009
and a 1.3% decline in 2010 as the new administration scales back defense commitments.
The Forecast in Brief

The economy remains on track to bottom out soon—at least in output terms. We expect the rate of contraction in
GDP to slow in the current quarter (to minus 2.8%), before GDP edges higher in the second half of the year. But a rapid
recovery is not in prospect, after such an extreme financial shock. Economists may be able to declare the recession
technically "over" some time in the third quarter, but it will not feel that way for the unemployed, with the unemployment
rate peaking at 10.3% in the first half of 2010.
The May employment report offered perhaps the
most solid sign yet that the downturn is
slowing. It showed a much more moderate rate of
job loss in private services, suggesting that firms
were very quick to react to the downturn at the turn
of the year, so no longer need to keep slashing
jobs. We do expect to see jobs declining for the
rest of the year, but progressively less rapidly. And
a retreat in the unemployment rate—now 9.4%—
requires not just that jobs grow, but that they grow
faster than the labor force. That remains a distant
prospect.
The bleakest part of the jobs report was the still-heavy loss of workers in manufacturing, suggesting that the inventory
adjustment in the goods sector remains severe. The inventory cycle will be the key to the growth profile in 2009.
Inventories took more than 2 percentage points out of first-quarter GDP growth, but it would be foolish to imagine that this
adjustment is complete. Inventory/sales ratios have barely begun to adjust, and we expect inventories to be a drag on
growth again in the second quarter. Only in the second half of the year, as the rate of inventory decline slows, will the
inventory cycle become a plus for growth. At that point, real GDP begins to expand even though final sales are still
declining.
Business investment is still falling, but less steeply. We expect second-quarter equipment spending to tumble
15.6%, another sharp drop, but less than half the 33.5% plunge in the first quarter. We expect growth to resume by the
end of the year. For 2009 overall, we foresee a 19.0% drop in equipment spending, followed by a 7.1% increase in 2010.
On the business structures side, the outlook is mixed. Total structures spending—aside from drilling activity—will
probably increase in the current quarter, but the gains will be narrowly concentrated in oil refining and power generation.
The trend for commercial construction such as retail developments, offices, and hotels remains downward. We expect
declines in private nonresidential building to resume in the third quarter of 2009 and extend through the third quarter of
2010.
In the state and local government sector, revenue growth is slowing or even negative, while financing has become
more expensive. Real state and local government purchases began to decline in the fourth quarter of 2008. We expect
them to roughly stabilize by midyear, but only because of federal support for current and capital spending that we estimate
at $171 billion over calendar years 2009 and 2010.
The full fiscal stimulus package is valued at around $787 billion over 10 years, and we assume that $561 billion of this is
injected during the first two calendar years. The stimulus adds about 0.8 percentage point to 2009 GDP growth and 1.3
percentage points to 2010 growth, and creates or saves just under 2.5-million jobs by the fourth quarter of 2010. But the
peak-to-trough decline in employment is still more than 7 million.
The stimulus package, financial bailout costs, and recession will take the federal budget deficit to $1.5 trillion in 2009
and $1.2 trillion in 2010. Failure to act on the deficit does not necessarily mean that inflation would surge—but would
guarantee that interest rates go much higher.
The global recession has hit exports hard. They plunged at a 28.7% annual rate in the first quarter. Although there are
now signs that world trade is beginning to stabilize, we do not expect the U.S. recovery to be export-led. Apart from China,
which has injected massive fiscal stimulus, the recovery should come more slowly to the rest of the world. This means
that the trade gap will widen later this year, as imports pick up before exports. The dollar has started to weaken again as
its safe-haven bid has diminished. We still see its long-term
trend as downwards. The current-account deficit should
fall about 40% in 2009 ($264 billion), almost entirely
because of a $230-billion plunge in the bill for imported oil.
Rising commodity prices have eased fears of deflation, and
there is now talk of inflation risks as some investors are
viewing the magnitude of monetary and fiscal stimuli with
alarm. We think that some commodity prices—notably oil—
have moved in advance of the fundamentals, and see some
correction as likely. But even without such a correction, we
see too much excess capacity in product markets and,
especially, in the labor market for an inflation spiral to take
hold any time soon. By the third quarter of 2009, we expect
headline CPI inflation to be minus 2.4% year-on-year, largely
on lower energy costs. We expect core consumption price inflation to soften and bottom out at 0.9% in the second quarter
of 2010, just below the bottom of the Federal Reserve's 1–2% comfort zone.
Bond yields have moved much higher, into the 3.75–4.00% range for 10-year Treasuries, on a combination of reduced
safe-haven demand, indigestion over heavy bond issuance, worry over future budget deficits, and concern over long-term
inflation risks. Although we do see bond yields heading substantially higher over the long term, we think it is too early for a
major bear market to begin, since we see the economy as still weak and inflation as a distant rather than an immediate
threat.
But both the Fed and the federal government need "exit strategies" to keep bond market vigilantes at bay. The Federal
Reserve is not yet ready to take its foot off the accelerator, but it is thinking about how and when to withdraw its
unprecedented stimulus. Markets are beginning to price in a Fed interest rate hike later in 2009, but we believe that is far
too early, and do not expect higher rates until deep into 2010. But we do not doubt the Fed's resolve to act as necessary.
The more difficult problem will be for the federal government to deal with the budget deficit.
BUSINESS TRAVEL OVERVIEW
There is no joy in Mudville. Overall, there are few positives to

report about travel and travel spending in mid-2009. Travel
throughout the world is taking a hit as the global recession
impacts households and business alike. The U.S. is not
immune from this decline and with only "a bottom is in sight"
to report about the recession and employment still falling, we
do not expect a business travel recovery over the short term.
Among the primary drivers of business travel are employment
and corporate profits, with travel prices adding to the overall
picture. The forecast for the first two are highly negative with
employment declines through mid-2010 and corporate profit
recovery with a similar timeline. Moreover, these
improvements will come more from the cost side than growth
in top-line revenue.
Business travel trips have been on a decline since reaching a
post-9/11 high in 2004. The decline between 2005 and 2007
has been slight, possibly reflecting the effect of large increases
in travel prices during that period. Only since the third quarter
of 2008 has the number of trips fallen off a cliff. The collapse
of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing government management
of many high-profile, travel oriented industries and firms has
put a break on business travel. Add in the AIG effect and its
impact on group travel and business travel has taken several
shots to the gut over the past couple of quarters.
The one positive to report, for businesses and travelers alike, is
that, after several years of increases, travel prices peaked in
2008. For business still sending employees on travel, the
deals in 2009 have never been better with hoteliers, airlines
and other tourism providers cutting prices to keep occupancy
Source: IHS Global Insight, US Bureau of Labor Statistics
levels up. Interestingly, many companies are actually booking more spot deals at the moment, choosing to go outside
their negotiated rates in order to take advantage of this aggressive price cutting environment. In addition, the year-over-
year gas prices are still down about 40%, even with the recent rise.
It is expected that the structural decline in the number of trips from the latest recession will be quite similar to the number
of business trips that disappeared after 9/11, when about 10% of all business trips disappeared. New technologies – like
video conferencing – are certainly a contributor of these losses.
Over the longer term, this recession is the worst of the post-war era. Economic recovery is expected to be slow and
drawn-out. The longer term forecast for visitors shows a similar lengthened recovery. IHS Global Insight does not expect
business travel trips to show any recovery until the outer reaches of the forecast. After reaching 550 million person trips
prior to 9/11 and only recovering to about 513 million trips in 2004, the number of business travel trips is expected to drop
to and stay at a level of about 430 million trips through the forecast period.
Prospects for increases in business travel spending are slightly better than the outlook for travel volume. This is primarily
due to recovering travel inflation. By mid-year 2010, IHS Global Insight expects to see average daily room rates (ADRs),
air fares, rental car, and gasoline prices beginning to edge up. This will push business travel spend growth by an average
of about 3-4% per year between 2011 and 2013.
The last table in this section is a repeat from the Top 20 Global Travel Markets Outlook section pertaining to U.S.
business travel forecast by industry. Prospects for recovery and growth are illustrated in the right-hand columns, both
from an immediate term and longer-term (through 2013) perspective. The sectors in the chart are ranked based upon our
expectations for increases in the level of business travel spending between 2008 and 2013.
U.S. BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING BY INDUSTRY
UNITED STATES Total Sales Business Travel Spending

1998- 2009- 2009-2013
2008 % of 2008 % of 2009 2010
CAGR CAGR (mn US$)
Government $2,232,754 8.3% $21,351 8.2% 3.1% 9.0% 4.7% 4.1% $4,701.21
Real Estate $2,329,407 8.6% $24,496 9.4% 4.4% -10.4% 2.5% 1.9% $2,440.43
Education $1,062,217 3.9% $3,402 1.3% 7.1% 9.7% 11.1% 11.0% $2,326.07
Social & Personal Services $1,029,765 3.8% $18,016 6.9% 2.4% -6.6% 2.5% 2.2% $2,080.94
Communications Services $934,632 3.5% $13,016 5.0% 3.6% -2.5% 1.3% 2.4% $1,603.01
Utilities $512,684 1.9% $18,437 7.1% 2.3% -12.7% 3.9% 1.3% $1,267.13
Food Processing and Services $748,649 2.8% $15,543 5.9% -0.3% -5.9% 0.9% 0.9% $734.46
Transportation Equipment $222,807 0.8% $2,515 1.0% -2.4% -3.1% 4.2% 3.4% $462.69
Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing $208,478 0.8% $5,202 2.0% 2.2% -15.6% 1.9% 1.3% $346.74
Hotels & Restaurants $741,708 2.8% $5,015 1.9% 1.5% -7.7% 1.5% 1.2% $310.38
Medical, Precision & Optical Instruments $91,646 0.3% $855 0.3% 0.4% -1.8% 3.4% 4.4% $204.17
Industrial Machinery & Equipment $309,917 1.2% $1,178 0.5% 2.7% -12.6% 0.6% 1.1% $67.83
Electrical Machinery & Apparatus $110,513 0.4% $1,032 0.4% -0.1% -7.5% -1.1% 1.2% $61.51
Paper & Paper Products $168,900 0.6% $3,570 1.4% 1.0% -17.9% 1.3% 0.2% $27.94
Private Households Employees $18,683 0.1% $0.3 0.0% 3.6% 6.2% 13.5% 12.3% $0.23
Leather & Leather Products $4,461 0.0% $24 0.0% -1.0% -8.9% -0.9% -1.5% -$1.74
Mining $626,334 2.3% $26 0.0% -43% -20.3% -4.4% -1.9% -$2.39
Health & Social Work $1,693,585 6.3% $78 0.0% -7.8% -38.1% 22.4% -1.6% -$6.12
Apparel $23,276 0.1% $123 0.0% -3.3% -7.4% -1.4% -1.2% -$7.48
Transportation Services $843,098 3.1% $9,261 3.5% 1.2% -12.7% 0.5% 0.0% -$21.77
Total $26,936,874 100% $261,362 100% 1.9% -10.3% 1.1% 0.3% $4,161.10
Risks and Alternatives
The economy appears to have passed the inflection point that separates a free-fall from a downturn that has a bottom in
sight. Indeed, consumer spending is stabilizing, and housing is showing signs of stabilizing. Confidence has risen, and
this has helped boost the S&P 500.
We are not out of this yet, however. The economy is still hemorrhaging jobs. Conditions in the commercial real estate
market are deteriorating. Housing prices are still falling, and delinquency rates are still rising. And output in the rest of the
world is still contracting.
Will we see real green shoots of recovery emerging, or are the recent positive signals a false dawn?
In the pessimistic scenario, the remaining problems combine to throw the economy off the tracks again. This scenario
assumes lower consumer spending, weaker business investment, slower foreign growth, and weak underlying productivity
growth. It is a scenario with an even deeper recession in the near term, and slow growth afterward.
In the optimistic scenario, Federal Reserve and Treasury policies turn the economy around sharply in the second half of
this year. With credit once again flowing, domestic consumer and business demands are rekindled, along with global
demand. The U.S. economy still experiences a serious recession, but it is milder than in the baseline forecast, and strong
growth resumes from the third quarter of 2009 onward.
False Dawn (20% Probability): The pessimistic scenario is more than a recession, but not quite a depression (some
economists call this gray area a "slump"). The simulation assumes that the financial crisis worsens, sending the economy
into its deepest downturn since the Great Depression. Credit markets remain clogged, both domestically and across the
world. Without access to credit, domestic spending contracts and the housing market falls into an even deeper hole.
The pessimistic scenario assumes that the downward spiral in financial markets continues into 2010. The Treasury-
eurodollar (TED) spread is still more than 100 basis points in the third quarter of 2009 (normally, it is less than 70 basis
points. The spread between 30-year fixed mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury note yield also remains wider than
normal through 2010.
Oil prices are lower over the short run in this scenario because world demand is falling. As a result, bottom-line inflation is
lower. Core inflation is also lower because demand is so weak. The low inflation readings give the Federal Reserve
leeway to keep interest rates in the 0.0–0.25% target range—just as in the baseline—during 2009 and 2010. But when the
economy gets off the mat, inflation starts creeping up because of rising energy prices, a slowdown in productivity, a
weaker dollar, and because the Fed responds to the crisis by creating too much money. The Fed responds to rising prices
by steadily raising interest rates. But its response is a bit too little, too late, and inflation continues to climb. Eventually,
core inflation stabilizes—but at nearly a full percentage point above the baseline rate.
In this scenario, the housing recession drags on. The median price of existing homes falls 12% below the baseline in
2010. Home sales are also much lower. Housing starts began to turn around from record-low levels—just as in the
baseline--but the rebound is sluggish, as starts drop from 900,000 units in 2008 to 546,000 in 2009 (compared with
556,000 in the baseline) and 701,000 in 2010 (compared with 865,000 in the baseline). The weakness in housing
undermines consumer confidence. This, along with the drop in wealth associated with falling home prices and a slowdown
in job growth, causes consumers to retrench sharply. Hit especially hard are light-vehicle sales, which fall to 8.8-million
units in 2009 (versus 9.8 million in the baseline).
Capital spending is also weaker, as firms respond to a bleaker outlook by scuttling long-term projects. Business fixed
investment drops over nine straight quarters. Foreign economic growth is lower, which cuts into export growth. Indeed,
real GDP among the United States' major-currency trading partners falls over seven quarters, starting in the second
quarter of 2008 (this category does not include China). As a result, exports deduct 2.0 and 0.2 percentage points from
GDP growth in 2009 and 2010, respectively.
Over the longer term, GDP growth remains slower than in the baseline, mainly because productivity advances only 1.4%
on average over the next 10 years, compared with 1.8% in the baseline. Inflation is higher because of the slower
productivity gains and a weaker dollar, and because the Fed, after allowing inflation to creep past its comfort band (so that
it eventually rises above 2.5%), decides to stabilize it at that higher level, rather than risk another recession by bringing it
down.
In this scenario, real GDP contracts 3.3% in 2009 and 0.9% in 2010 (compared with a 2.8% drop and a 1.5% gain,
respectively, in the baseline). Employment drops for 11 straight quarters (the economy loses 8.9-million jobs),
manufacturing output falls over 11 straight quarters, and real GDP drops for seven straight quarters, starting with the third
quarter of 2008. Unlike the previous two recessions, those of 1991 and 2001, this one takes a heavy toll. Peak to trough,
real GDP drops 5.1%—not quite enough to be called a depression (defined as a 10% peak-to-trough drop in real GDP),
but much worse than the losses during the 1973–75 and 1981–82 recessions. Unlike those recessions, however, the
economy emerges from this downturn weaker, and facing more troubles ahead.
Green Shoots Sprout (20% Probability): In the optimistic scenario, the rapid response of the Federal Reserve to the
crisis in financial markets, coupled with the Treasury's "rescue" plan, Congress' stimulus package, and help from central
banks abroad work, limit the downside. The recession is still a nasty one, though. There is no additional economic
stimulus above the level in the baseline, but the primary difference is that the wheels of stimulus start to achieve traction
more quickly, producing growth of 3.1% in the third quarter.
In addition, the standard optimistic scenario assumption of stronger total factor productivity growth is also in place. Total
factor productivity, a measure of how technological progress augments economic growth, is enhanced by reinvigorated
innovation in the technology sector. This allows lower inflation and stronger income growth over the long term—but in the
short term, a stronger economy means that inflation is higher in the optimistic scenario than in the baseline (particularly in
commodities). Headline CPI accelerates to 2.9% y/y in the third quarter of 2010, as opposed to 1.8% in the baseline.
The stronger sales pace during 2009 in the optimistic scenario requires less of an inventory reduction than in the baseline,
with demand recovery trimming inventories back to desirable levels. Final sales fall 1.7% in 2009 in the more optimistic
scenario, as opposed to a 2.3% drop in the baseline.
With credit again flowing late this year, business fixed investment rebounds 6.5% in 2010, after suffering a severe 16.6%
contraction in 2009. This compares with a steeper 18.3% drop during 2009 in the baseline forecast, and a 0.1% decline
during 2010. The downturn in residential investment is also less severe in the optimistic scenario, with housing starts
beginning to recover during the second half of 2009 and averaging over 596,000 units for the year, compared with a much
weaker baseline level of roughly 556,000 units. This recovery is also reflected in house prices, as the FHFA housing price
index posts a slimmer 5.5% drop in 2009 in the optimistic scenario.
The optimistic scenario also assumes faster growth in the rest of the world, and a dollar that is initially weaker than the
baseline, but later on is stronger. The dollar helps GDP early in the forecast period, but restrains it later on, as relatively
weaker foreign currencies encourage import growth.
Finally, we assume slightly higher energy prices in the near term due to stronger global demand, but lower prices in the
longer term due to a more optimistic assumption about supply. Oil prices remain in the low $70s per barrel over the rest of
2009, rather than holding at $60/barrel in the baseline, and then gradually rise to the low $80s by the end of 2014.
On net, these assumptions produce a much brighter economic outlook than the dismal pictures painted by the baseline
and pessimistic scenarios. After falling 0.6% in the second quarter (compared with a 2.1% decline in the baseline
forecast), real GDP undergoes a sharp turnaround, climbing 3.1% and 3.5% in the third and fourth quarters of 2009. Real
GDP does even better in 2010, rising 3.1%, after shrinking 2.0% in 2009. The unemployment rate peaks near its present
level (in the mid-9% range) and falls to 6.6% by late 2014.
Inflation implications of the milder recession in the optimistic scenario are modest. Consumer prices fall less than in the
baseline and rebound more sharply at first, but by 2011 lower oil prices and improved productivity growth bring inflation
down below its baseline pace. In short, the optimistic alternative sees more-muted cycle dynamics, and a quicker turn in
the cycle than the baseline.
BUSINESS TRAVEL UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS
Total Business Trips

(Millions)
120
110
100
90
80
1
4
Q
Q
09
09
09
09
10
10
10
10
11
11
11
11
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Optimistic Pessimistic Forecast
In the pessimistic scenario, the slump created by the continued backup in the financial markets, the lower consumer
spending and weaker business investment result in business trips declining by over 10%, year-over-year, in each quarter
through the remainder of 2009. Declines in business trips continue through mid-2011, as GDP growth continues to be
negative. Annual business trips decline to under 400 million, down over 20% from the 503 million business trips in 2007.
For the first time in many years, quarterly business trips in the 4th
Business
BusinessTravel
Travel Trips
Trips quarter of 2010 fall below the 100 million level and fall as low as
(Percent)
(Percent) 95 million in the 4th quarter of 2013, towards the end of the
44
22 forecast period as the economy comes out of the slump into a
00 protracted period of weakness.
-2
-2
-4
-4 In the optimistic scenario, employment declines end and GDP
-6
-6
-8
-8
growth becomes positive in the 3rd quarter of 09. This rebound
-10
-10 in the economy in the second half of 2009 means the declines in
-12
-12
-14 business trips moderate towards the end of the year and start to
-14
2005Q1
2005Q1 2006Q3
2006Q3 2008Q1
2008Q1 2009Q3
2009Q3 2011Q1
2011Q1 2012Q3
2012Q3
show very small positive growth in early 2010, leveling off at
Optimistic Pessimistic Forecast about 445 million business trips, over 10% higher than in the
Optimistic Pessimistic Forecast
pessimistic scenario and a shade under 4% higher than the
expected forecast of business trips.
While trips have been showing a slight downward trend over the past 3-4 years, business travel spending increases, year-
over-year, were as high as 10.6% in the second quarter of 2007. Only since the middle of 2008 has business travel
spending declined with the bottom falling out in the 4th quarter of 2008. In the forecast of business travel spending, double
digit declines last through the third quarter of 2009 with the increases in spending, year-over-year, finally happening in the
first quarter of 2010. While these increases are small – ranging from 0.5 to 1.1 percent, they show the rebound in travel
prices once the deals of 2009 have passed.
Pessimistically speaking, the elongated slump means business travel spending declines continue through the beginning of
2011 but, beyond that, the increase in spending quickly rises
Business
BusinessTravel
Travel Spending
Spending
above the other two scenarios as travel prices increase. Travel (Percent)
(Percent)
prices are on the increase in this scenario as prices in general 16
16
and increasing and there is a bigger increase energy prices with 12
12
88
the declines in the dollar. Spending is increasing by over 4%, 44
year-over-year, by 2012 mainly due to the increase in prices as 00
-4
-4
business trips are continuing to decline. -8
-8
-12
-12
Looking at the optimistic scenario, the recovery in the economy -16
-16
translated into business travel spending jumping by over 4% in -20
-20
the first quarter of 2010 in comparison to the first quarter of 2007Q1
2007Q1 2008Q1
2008Q1 2009Q1
2009Q1 2010Q1
2010Q1 2011Q1
2011Q1
2009. Business travel spending, year-over-year, moderates to Optimistic
Optimistic Pessimistic
Pessimistic Forecast
Forecast
the 2.5 to 3% range as slight increases in trips along with a
more normal inflationary period reflect the recovering economy. In this scenario, energy prices are increasing but
increasing productivity and supplies keep those increases moderate.
BUSINESS TRAVEL WITH OIL PRICES OF $100 PER BARREL
With transportation costs making up, on average, almost 40% of the cost of a business trip, any changes in this expense
would be expected to have an impact on business travel. The final scenario run by IHS Global Insight put $100 a barrel of
oil into the model and examines the impact of this change on business travel.
The understandable concern is that, as the cost of traveling goes up, the amount of travel will decrease. Oil price spikes
cut into nominal household consumption in 2008 and the share of consumption represented by gasoline has not been this
high since the early 1980s. In nominal terms, gasoline consumption as a percentage of total consumption jumped from
1.9% in 1998 to 2.4% in 2003 and to an even higher 80%
Price of im ported oil, left
3.9% in 2008. In real terms, however, gasoline’s
Total w orld arrivals, right
share of total consumption has been steadily declining 60%
Percent change from a year ago

from 3.4% in 1980 to 2.2% in 2008.
40%
Historically, the relationship between oil prices and
world travel is not clear cut. Total world arrivals have 20%
grown steadily despite the volatility in oil prices. This
may be partially due to oil being an input for 0%
businesses that serve the traveler and those
businesses ability to mitigate and react to oil price -20%
changes in other ways besides price. Our analysis

-40%
indicates that changes in the oil price will only slightly
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
affect travel and tourism.
All else being equal, a 1% increase in the price of oil will decrease total world arrivals by 0.12%. With per barrel prices of
around $67 to $69 at this time, a jump to $100 a barrel would indicate a jump of around 43%. An increase of 43% in the
price per barrel of oil would result in about a 5% reduction in travel spending. To put this in context, IHS Global Insight is
forecasting a year-over-year change in business travel, as the result of the ongoing recession, of about 15% in the second
quarter of 2009. In this case, an economic recession with annual growth rates dropping about 5% annually (Real GDP)
has three times the negative impact of a 40% increase in the price of oil. Increases in oil prices exert a negative influence
on travel to be certain, but it takes time for changes in crude prices to flow through to airline fares. Depending upon the
level of airfare increases, travelers may either internalize the increase or take it out of other trip spending categories (e.g.
stay in a 3 star rather than 4 star hotel). In either case, they will continue to travel. Moreover, the historic data suggests
that some or all of the increase in crude may never make their way through to airfares.
Parsing the data to examine certain geographic areas and their reaction to increases in oil prices:
• Owing to the prevalence of short-haul travel, oil prices have little effect on arrivals in Western Europe.
• Oil prices have the greatest influence in Eastern Europe and Latin America, where destinations are farther
apart and incomes are generally lower.
• Oil’s effect on arrivals in North America and the Middle East fall somewhere in between. Travel distances are
farther, but the regions are helped by higher incomes.
A 1-percent increase in oil prices decreases arrivals to each region by...
0.04%
Africa
0.59%
Eastern Europe
0.18%
Latin America
0.07%
Middle East
0.08%
North America
0.04%
Western Europe
0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7%

Percent change in arrivals
Business Travel Survey
As part of the evaluation of business travel, IHS Global Insight administered a short telephone questionnaire to either the
chief financial officer or the controller of a sample of U.S. companies in each major industry category.
The questionnaire contained a battery of volumetric questions concerning T&E and then shift to the topic of travel
management. The travel management questions would address issues such as: (1) internal-vs.-outsource execution, (2)
budget or number of employees dedicated to the function, (3) location of the function in the corporate hierarchy, etc.
Lastly, a series of business demographic questions would be asked to determine the exact industry, size, and location of
the responding business in order to help anchor and generalize the overall results.
IHS Global Insight and its survey partner, LHK Associates, interviewed 447 random companies from around the United
States across all industries in April and May of 2009. IHS Global Insight selected these industries in order to provide a
representative cross section of the economy, linking together industries that exhibited similar business travel tendencies in
the input/output dataset.
The majority of these companies surveyed were private companies.
Is your Company a Public Company
Frequency Percent Cumulative Cumulative

Frequency Percent
Yes 20 4.47 20 4.47
No 427 95.53 447 100.00
The companies interviewed were selected to cover all industries.
Industry Frequency Percent Cumulative Cumulative

Frequency Percent
Administration & Other 36 8.05 36 8.05
Construction & Mining 35 7.83 71 15.88
Education & Health Care 35 7.83 106 23.71
Entertainment, Recreation & 35 7.83 141 31.54

Accommodations
Industry Frequency Percent Cumulative Cumulative
Frequency Percent
FIRE 50 11.19 191 42.73
Information 51 11.41 242 54.14
Manufacturing 50 11.19 292 65.32
Professional & Scientific Services 50 11.19 342 76.51
Retail Trade 35 7.83 377 84.34
Utilities & Transport 35 7.83 412 92.17
Wholesale Trade 35 7.83 447 100.00
The interviews requested interviews with company's Chief Financial Officer or Comptroller to get the person who is most
knowledgeable about a companies total business travel and entertainment budgets and expenditures.
The firms interviewed ranged from the small, with one employee, to the very large, with 8,000 employees. The average
firm in the survey had just over 50 employees.
Employment Frequency Percent Cumulative Cumulative

Frequency Percent
Size
Less than 9 67 14.99 67 14.99
10 to 24 93 20.81 160 35.79
25 to 49 53 11.86 213 47.65
50 to 99 79 17.67 292 65.32
100 to 499 115 25.73 407 91.05
Greater than 500 40 8.95 447 100.00
Company revenues ranged from $500 to $200 billion, with an average of $7 million
Revenue Frequency Percent Cumulative Cumulative
Frequency Percent
Size
Less than $1 million 201 44.97 201 44.97
$1 to $9.99 million 103 23.04 304 68.01
$10 to $49.99 million 83 18.57 387 86.58
Greater than $50 million 60 13.42 447 100.00
Companies spent anywhere from $100 to $248 million on business travel in 2007. Averaging the companies T&E
expenses, the surveyed companies are going to spend about 5% less on business travel in 2008 than they did in 2007 –
down to an average of just under $1 million.
Examining the travel expenses across industries, Professional and Business Services (PBS in the graph below), spent
more than $11,300 per employee on business travel, according to the survey results. Retail Trade (TRET) and
Construction (CON) industries each spent about $7,100 per employee on travel & entertainment expenses. Utilities
(TUTI) and Education and Health Services industries constituted the lowest T&E spending per employee, both industries
coming in at under $1,000. Overall, companies in the survey averaged around $4,850 in T&E spending per employee.
T&E Expenses per Employee

PBS 11,345.68
TRET 7,143.43
CON 7,079.20
LHS 5,325.13
MANU 5,281.25
Industry
TRAN 4,275.22
INF 3,562.25
TWST 3,298.14
FIRE 1,868.61
OTS 1,129.49
EHS 734.36
TUTI 120.38
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Spending per Employee
Another way to look at travel and entertainment spending is by looking at T&E spending as a percentage of revenue, as
done in the following graph. Companies in industries like Utilities, with its low spending per employee, spent very little on
T&E in our survey. Other industries where companies reported very little T&E spending in comparison to revenue
included Wholesale Trade (TWST), with 0.6% of revenue spent on travel and entertainment, Other Services (OTS),
Mining (MIN) and Construction (CON). Interestingly, the Construction industry spends over $7,000 per employee on
travel and entertainment but that is still a small percentage of overall revenue.
On the other end, companies in the Transportation industry (TRAN) and Professional and Business Services (PBS) spent
a much larger percentage of their revenue on travel and entertainment – over 5.5%. Professional and Business Services
companies not only spend the highest amount per employee but also a large chunk of their revenue on travel and
entertainment, no doubt spending time meeting with client and prospecting for new business.
In the middle ground of T&E spending per revenue dollar are companies in industries in Finance (FIRE), Leisure and
Hospitality (LHS), Education and Health Services (EHS), Information (INF) and Retail Trade (TRET).
T&E Expenses as a Percentage of Revenue

TUTI 0.0%
TWST 0.6%
OTS 1.2%
MIN 1.5%
CON 1.6%
Industry
MANU 1.9%
FIRE 3.0%
LHS 3.4%
EHS 3.6%
INF 3.9%
TRET 3.9%
PBS 5.6%
TRAN 5.7%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6%
T&E % of Revenue
When asked about their 2009 travel and entertainment spending, by a margin of almost 5 to 1, companies say they will be
lowering business travel expenses in 2009.
Your travel and entertainment expenses in 2009 will be:

Frequency Percent
Greater than 2008 34 7.61 34 7.61
Less than 2008 153 34.23 187 41.83
Same 260 58.17 447 100.00
Of those firms who say their T&E expenses will be greater than 2008 in 2009, almost half of the companies stated that
increases in business, either domestic or international, were the cause of the growth. About 15% said training expenses
were the reason for the T&E increase while 30% felt travel inflation was the cause behind T&E expenses rising.
Those companies that plan on increasing T&E expenses in 2009 do not plan on breaking the bank on T&E. Over half
plan on increasing T&E by 10% or less and less than 25% plan on increasing T&E by more than 25%.
Over 40% of the firms whose T&E will be declining in 2009 stated the reason T&E is dropping is in response to tightening
economic/business conditions. Another 24% are cutting T&E due to cost containment measures with sales declines and
lower travel costs coming in as the next two cited reasons for lower T&E expenses in 2009.
Of those decreasing T&E expenses, over 80% of the reductions will be between 10 and 50%, with over 30% of the firms
planning on reducing T&E by over a third. These firms had $872 million in T&E expenses in 2008 and a reduction of 20%
would mean almost $175 million less in T&E spending in 2009 by these firms ALONE.
Who handles the travel arrangements??

Frequency Percent
Outside Travel Management Vendor 33 7.38 33 7.38
Internal Travel Managers 41 9.17 74 16.55
Individual Employees 364 81.43 438 97.99
Don't Know 6 1.34 444 99.33
Refused to Answer 3 0.67 447 100.00

In our survey, only about 17% of our companies have some sort of travel management handling travel arrangements, with
the majority of companies allowing individual employees to arrange travel themselves.
Not surprisingly, the largest two employment size classes include over 55% of the firms who employ outside travel
management functions. However, those with internal travel staff remained pretty constant across employment sizes.
Interestingly, even in the largest employment size class, the percentage of firms whose own employees or admin staff
makes their own travel arrangements was over 70% according to the survey.
Similar patterns were found examining the revenue size classes.
Examining travel management by industry, three industries have the overwhelming percentage of outside travel vendors –
Manufacturing, Profession & Scientific Services and Information. There is less of a pattern examining the firms whose
travel management functions are in-house. Percentage-wise, Manufacturing and Education & Health Services are the
most likely to have travel management functions in-house. Only Manufacturing and Professional & Scientific Services
have over 30% of their travel managed.
When asked if their company has instituted a cost containment plan for T&E expenses for 2009, just over a quarter replied
in the affirmative.
Has your Company Instituted a Cost Containment Plan for 2009

Frequency Percent
Yes, we have a cost containment plan 117 26.17 117 26.17
No cost containment plan 327 73.15 444 99.33
Don't know 2 0.45 446 99.78
Refused answer 1 0.22 447 100.00
Of those companies with a cost containment plan, about 20% expect to get 0 to 5% savings out of their plan. Another
16% expect between 6 and 10% savings with a total of 70% of those firms instituting cost containment plans expected up
to a 25% savings from their plan.
Cost Containment Savings
Savings Percentage Frequency Percent Cumulative Cumulative

Frequency Percent
0 to 5% 23 19.66 23 19.66
6 to 10% 19 16.24 42 35.90
11 to 19% 9 7.69 51 43.59
20 to 25% 31 26.50 82 70.09
26 to 49% 8 6.84 90 76.92
Greater than 50% 27 23.08 117 100.00
Overall, the finding from the travel survey boost the results that have been presented in previous sections as the results
from the random survey when some metrics are compared, relay confidence in our previous analysis.
The Economic Impact of U.S. Business Travel
Levels of Tourism Economic Impact In addition to quantifying and forecasting the U.S. business travel market, the
economic impact of the industry has also been analyzed. Previously, the U.S.
Direct Business Travel Market was reviewed, which included not only the domestic
business travel market, but also the outbound international business travel
spend. When determining the economic impact of the U.S. business travel
market, the analysis must include a slightly different data set. The domestic
market spending is the same, but instead of including the domestic outbound
travel spend, the analysis includes the spending of those business travelers to
the U.S. who originated from international markets. As the domestic market
dominates in both scenarios, the total market size is similar for each
classification.
Indirect & Induced
The total economic impact of travelers is separated into three distinct parts:
direct, indirect, and induced. The direct impacts represent the value added of those sectors that interact directly with the
visitor. The indirect impact represents the benefit to suppliers to those direct sectors. This would include, for example,
U.S. based food suppliers to a restaurant. The induced impact adds the impact of tourism-generated wages as they are
spent in the economy. The image of the iceberg represents the various impacts of tourism. Those industries that are part
of the direct tourism sector represent the impact that is visible, i.e., above the surface of the water. But below the surface,
traveler spending generates wages, employment, and taxes in a host of supporting industries. Although these are not
seen, they are critical to understanding the full economic impact of tourism in the United States.
The following chart defines some of the terms used in the economic impact analysis.
The value added derived from the travel spending,\; the direct impact
Economic Impact
represents the GDP contribution of the industry
The wages and proprietor income paid out to individuals in support of

Income Impact
the business travel industry
The total employees supported by the business travel spending; the

Employment Impact direct impact provides a comparable value to other traditional industry
employment data
The direct effect represents impact of those sectors that interact

Direct Effect
directly with the visitor, such as a hotel worker
The indirect effect represents the benefit to suppliers to those direct

Indirect Effect sectors. This would include, for example, domestic food suppliers to a
restaurant
The induced effect adds the impact of tourism-generated wages as

Induced Effect
they are spent in the U.S. economy
Value added of an industry is equal to the sum of wages, taxes, profits,

Value Added
and capital depreciation
THE TOP LINE: TOTAL U.S. BUSINESS TRAVEL INDUSTRY SPENDING
The following table and chart represent the U.S. business travel spend. As described previously, this includes all spending
on travelers on business that occurs within the U.S., encompassing all domestic spending and the spending of
international business travelers within the U.S.
(Value in billion $) Shopping Entertainment

11% 12%
2008 %
Entertainment 31.6 -1.0

Food
Accommodation 55.4 0.0 18% Accommodation
21%
Transportation 101.1 1.6
Food 47.4 -0.9
Shopping 29.1 -0.3
Total 264.6 0.3
Transportation
38%
2008 saw a slight increase in total business travel spend, as the significant downturn in the fourth quarter was offset by
steady growth prior to that, especially in the international market, which was up 18.5% for the year and finished 2008 at
$37.6 billion. The domestic market, at $227 billion, was down 2% for the year.
The major categories shown above are aggregations of the details used to generate the economic impacts. In generating
the following impact results, the five major categories were split into 19 specific spending industries to best represent the
true end market for the business travel dollar.
ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE U.S. BUSINESS TRAVEL INDUSTRY
The following table highlights the top-line results from the economic impact study of the U.S. business travel industry.
(Value in billion $ unless otherwise noted)

Direct Indirect Induced Total
Travel Expenditures 264.6
Economic Impact 133.1 91.4 93.9 318.4
Labor Income 76.7 56.0 55.0 187.7
Employment (Millions) 2.16 1.01 1.20 4.37
Taxes 79.5
The direct economic impact, at $133 billion, represents just over 50% of the U.S. business travel expenditures.
The table below highlights the comparison the impact results from 2008 to 2007.
(Value in billion $ unless otherwise noted)

2008 2007 %
Economic Impact
Direct 133.1 132.8 0.2
Total 318.4 318.0 0.1
Labor Income
Direct 76.7 76.5 0.2
Total 187.7 187.3 0.2
Employment (millions)
Direct 2.16 2.24 -3.2
Total 4.37 4.51 -3.0
Taxes 79.5 81.5 -2.4
The 0.3% increase in 2008 travel expenditures resulted in a 0.1% increase in total economic impact. The resulting wages
paid out increased 0.2%. While wages increased 0.2% for the year, the employment supported by those wages fell 3%.
This was due to the fact that the average annual wage paid to business travel supported employees increased by 4%.
VALUE ADDED IMPACT OF THE U.S. BUSINESS TRAVEL INDUSTRY
As shown previously, the total economic impact of the U.S. business travel industry in 2008 was over $318 billion, with the
direct impact surpassing $133 billion. The economic impact model enables the value added to be broken out by industry
to determine which industries are realizing the direct, indirect and induced benefits from business travel. The chart below
highlights the major industry categories benefiting from business travel.
Economic Impact of Business Travel by Industry* - 2008

45,000
Value Added - Millions of $
Induced
40,000
Indirect
35,000
Direct
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
FIRE
Bus. Services
Lodging
Food & Bev

Transportation
Entertainment
Manufacturing
Retail Trade
* Industry groupings shown represent nearly 80% of the $318B in total impact
The $133 billion direct economic impact is slightly above 50% of the total U.S. business traveler spend. As this is a
representation of the value added from that spending, the specific ratio of spending to value add varies by industry. Some
industries, like many in the entertainment field or hotels, generally generate over 60% value add compared to spending.
However, some major business travel spending categories result in much lower ratios, including air transportation at less
than 40%, and retail categories ranging from 12% to 33%. While the value add ratio for air transportation is fairly low, the
importance of the business traveler to the overall industry should not be overlooked. The $23.5 billion in value add, and
the $63.4 billion in economic output each make up around 39% of the total value add and output of the entire air
transportation industry, including passenger and cargo traffic. It should be noted that the total U.S. business travel
industry is larger than the GDP of all but 25 countries.
One note about the chart above is that while the largest economic impacts will be to the core business travel businesses
like hotels and transportation, the data illustrates the fact that certain industries either not directly involved in business
travel or with a much lower focus, see significant economic benefits because of the business travel industry. As can be
noticed by the plum colored sections of the bars, the Professional and Business Services sector (denoted by Bus.
Services) and Finance, Insurance & Real Estate (denoted by FIRE) receive significant economic benefits as suppliers to
the tourism industry. In fact, the $40.5 billion indirect impact to these two industries is nearly equal to the total impact from
the entire transportation industry.
INCOME IMPACT OF THE U.S. BUSINESS TRAVEL INDUSTRY
As shown previously, the total income impact of the U.S. business travel industry in 2008 was nearly $188 billion, with the
direct impact nearly $77 billion. The chart below highlights the major industry categories benefiting from business travel.
Labor Income Impact of Business Travel by Industry - 2008

35,000
Labor Income - Millions of $
Induced
30,000 Indirect
25,000 Direct
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
FIRE
Bus. Services
Lodging
Food & Bev

Transportation
Edu. & Health
Entertainment
Retail Trade
The $188 billion in compensation is distributed much differently than the economic impact, as business services, owing to
its relatively higher compensation rates, generates the largest total impact.
The average annual wage for all business travel supported employees in 2008 was nearly $43,000, with the average
annual direct wage topping $35,400. The total annual wage is an increase of 4% compared to 2007, while the direct wage
is up nearly 5%.
EMPLOYMENT IMPACT OF THE U.S. BUSINESS TRAVEL INDUSTRY
The total employment supported by 2008 business traveler expenditures was over 4.37 million, with the direct
employment over 2.16 million. The chart below highlights the major industry categories benefiting from business travel
supported employment.
Employment Impact of Business Travel by Industry - 2008

1.2
Induced
Millions of Employees
1.0 Indirect
Direct
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
FIRE
Bus. Services
Lodging
Food & Bev
Transportation
Edu. & Health

Entertainment
Retail Trade
The impact of employment is much more dependent on those industries that directly touch the business traveler, with the
main direct impact related industries making up five of the top 6 categories. There is still a significant effect on those
industries with less of a direct focus, as the professional business services industry realizes an indirect employment
benefit that is nearly as large as the total employment impact in the entertainment industry.
As stated previously, the travel industry is really a composition of many other industries, but the economic impact model
enables the industry to be compared to traditional industry classifications. The table below shows the U.S. business travel
industry in relation to the other major industry classifications on an employment basis.
Employment 2007-2008
Rank Industry % of U.S.
(Millions) Growth
1 Health Care & Social Assistance 15.82 2.8% 11.5%
2 Retail Trade 15.35 -1.1% 11.2%
3 Accommodation & Food Services 11.49 0.3% 8.4%
4 Durable Manufacturing 8.47 -3.8% 6.2%
5 Admin., Support, Waste Mgmt., Etc. 8.06 -4.3% 5.9%
6 Professional, Scientific & Technical 7.83 2.2% 5.7%
7 Construction 7.21 -5.5% 5.3%
8 Finance & Insurance 6.01 -1.9% 4.4%
9 Wholesale Trade 5.96 -0.9% 4.4%
10 Nondurable Manufacturing 4.95 -2.3% 3.6%
11 Transportation & Warehousing 4.50 -0.8% 3.3%
12 Educational Services 3.04 3.3% 2.2%
13 Real Estate, Rental & Leasing 2.13 -1.9% 1.6%
14 Arts, Entertainment & Recreation 1.97 0.0% 1.4%
15 Other 11.75 0.0% 8.6%
Government 22.50 1.2% 16.4%
Total Nonfarm 137.05 -0.4% 100%
Business Travel 2.16 -3.2% 1.6%
As shown in the table above, if business travel were its own industry, it would be the 13th largest industry by employment
in the United States. Additionally, nearly 1 in 30 U.S. workers owes his job to the business travel industry (including direct
and induced employment).
TAX IMPACT OF THE U.S. BUSINESS TRAVEL INDUSTRY
As stated previously, the $265 billion in U.S. business traveler expenditures in 2008 was broken out into 19 industry
categories. The input/output model used for the economic impact study also generates the tax impact of the spending in
these categories. The federal government, as well as the state and local governments, derive significant taxes from
companies, households, and the travelers themselves. Businesses and households pay income, sales, and excise taxes.
Travelers pay travel-specific taxes along with general sales taxes. In 2008, the total tax impact of the U.S. business travel
was $79.5 billion, with $44.7 billion going to the federal government and the remaining $35 billion allocated to state and
local governments. The chart below details the tax impact of the U.S. business traveler.
Tax Revenues from Business Travel 2008 (Million)
Federal Government
Corporate Income 11,063.3
Personal Income 14,796.2
Social Security & Other Taxes 18,794.0
Federal Total 44,653.5
State and Local Government
Corporate Profits Tax 3,237.4
Personal Income 5,331.8
Sales 12,025.7
Licenses & Fees 231.4
Property Taxes 10,769.4
Other Taxes 3,385.9
State and Local Total 34,981.7
Total 79,507.2
In 2008, there were 117.5 million households. If the business travel industry were removed from the marketplace, the
government would need to collect an additional $380 per household to maintain its current level of receipts. At the state
and local level, each household would be required to generate an additional $298 annually in order for the state and local
governments to maintain their current level of receipts. In total, the business travel industry generates $678 in total tax
dollars for every household in the country.
U.S. Business Traveler Profile
OVERVIEW
One of the primary objectives of this research initiative is to build a comprehensive set of measures that provide, among
other things, an understanding of business travel activity in its totality, one that can be used by travel managers, travel
buyers, and travel suppliers to develop market, procurement, and resource strategies. We have also endeavored to
provide a better understanding of the micro level, the business travelers themselves.
The next section of this report contains the results of the latest IHS Global Insight U.S. Business Traveler profile. The
demographic, spending, and behavioral patterns presented below are compiled from an ongoing mail panel of over
600,000 U.S. households managed by D.K. Shifflet & Associates (www.dksa.com). The rich database of trip activity was
mined for only those trips whose purpose was identified as business. The respondent results are collected within three
months of the completed trip(s). This resulted in over 32,000 business trips from which to build the cross tabulations
presented below.
The result is a true current behavioral profile of American business travelers. Moreover, historical perspective is also
provided for many of the demographic and behavioral attributes so that one can monitor how business travel has been
changing over time. Travel managers, buyers, and suppliers can use this profile to better understand the nature and
needs of their ultimate clients –the American business traveler. Travel programs and policies can be adjusted to to better
accommodate current behavior. For travel suppliers, the business traveler profile can be used to develop new or improve
current travel products and services, as well as to help distinguish the unique needs of the business traveler from his/her
leisure travel counterparts.
Note that the source for all tables and charts in this section is D.K. Shifflet & Associates (www.dksa.com).
American business travelers are typically between the ages of 35 and 54 years old. They are married (76%), and have no
children living in their households (60%). They most likely work in a managerial or professional position (35%) and make
an average yearly income of $78,700.
Business travelers will usually drive to their destinations (60%). The most common destination of the business traveler is
Los Angeles (3.79%), New York (3.05%), San Francisco (2.77%), or Chicago (2.64%). The specific purpose of a business
trip is quite broad, but is typically transient business (62%) involving sales/purchasing (11%) or group business involving
seminars/training (15%). The business traveler will make a reservation (83%) to stay at a high-end or mid-level hotel (28%
and 31%) usually pays with a credit card (63%).
A business traveler will spend an average of $465 during their stay, mostly on transportation (37%) and food (20%). Their
trip will usually lasts three days or less (87%) when they will leave to go home to Los Angeles (5.3%), New York (3.9%),
or Dallas-Fort Worth (2.4%). A typical business trip will be average of 343 miles from a business traveler's origin.
THE TOP LINE: PERSON-STAYES AND SPENDING
BUSINESS TRAVEL PERSON-STAYS

Business travelers logged nearly
440 million person-stays in 2008, 4% 600
a 12.7% decline over 2007.
Business travel has been hit hard 0% 500
by the recession as companies
substitute technology for travel to -4% 400
cut expenses.
-8% 300
Last year marked the fourth
consecutive year of decline for -12% 200
business travel and this travel
segment will recover very slowly -16% 100
as the economy crawls out of 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
recession and in to recovery.
Person-Stays (mn) Percent Change
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING

While travel volume has been
declining, rising prices have 12.0% 250
continued to push business travel
spending up. 8.0% 200
The last declines in business
travel spending were in the 2001- 4.0% 150
2003 period when the industry
0.0% 100
took double hits from 9/11 and the
SARS outbreak.
-4.0% 50
Moderation in price growth (and
declines in the case of fuel) will -8.0% 0
begin to limit growth in business 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
travel spending.
Spending (bn$) Percent Change
Business travel is widely TOP BUSINESS TRAVEL DESTINATIONS BY DMA, 2007
distributed across major US
4.5
metropolitan areas with no single
destination capturing more than 4.0
4% of total domestic business 3.5
travel. 3.0
Percent (%)
As one would expect, the country's 2.5
top financial centers (LA, NYC and 2.0
Chicago) capture three of the four 1.5
top destinations.
1.0
Orlando and Chicago are popular 0.5
group travel destinations and
0.0
capture disproportionately large
LA NYC San Chicago DC Dallas Orlando Philly Atlanta San
shares of group business travel Fran Diego
relative to their total business
travel shares. U.S. Business U.S. Group Business U.S. Transient Business
BUSINESS TRAVELER AVERAGE LENGTH OF STAY, 2007
60
Day trips are the predominant trip U.S. Business
length for business travelers. 50
Nearly 60% of transient business U.S. Group
trips are one-day trips. 40 Business
Percent (%)
U.S. Transient
Group business has the longest 30 Business
trip length, with over 40% of these
trips lasting one to three nights 20
and 12% lasting four or more
10
nights.
0
Day Trip 1-3 Nights 4-7 nights 8+ nights
BUSINESS TRAVEL BY MODE OF TRANSPORTATION
TRIPS BY MODE OF TRANSPORTATION, 2007
80
Road trips are the dominant mode of
70
transportation for business trips, accounting
60
Percent (%)
for over 70% of all types of business trips.
50
Among trips taken by air, group business 40
takes the largest share at just over 20%. 30
These trips tend to be a bit further from 20
home and auto travel would not be practical. 10
0
Air Auto Other
U.S. Business U.S. Group Business U.S. Transient Business
AUTO BUSINESS TRIPS BY DISTANCE, 2007
Not surprisingly, auto trips tend to be under 60

300 miles in length. Trips longer than 300 50
miles tend to lean toward air travel.
Percent (%)
40
People tend to drive farther for group 30
business than for other business trip
20
purposes. This may be a function also of
the fact that group business trips tend to be 10
a bit longer in length than transient trips 0

which are predominantly day trips. 100 miles 101-300 301-500 501-700 701- 1001+
or less miles miles miles 1000 miles
miles
AIR TRIPS BY DISTANCE, 2007

It is not surprising that only a small share of
business trips by air are 300 miles or less. 45
However, it is interesting that the distribution 40
of trips over this length is not evenly 35
Percent (%)
distributed. 30
25
It would appear that there are two types of 20
trips taken by air: those that are regional 15
(301-750 miles) and very long-distance trips 10
(over 1000 miles). The in-between trip 5
distance of 750-1000 miles gets a much 0
smaller share of trips. 300 miles or 301-750 miles 751-1000 miles 1001+ miles
less
BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING PROFILE
AVERAGE PER-TRIP SPENDING BY ORIGIN MARKET, 2007

There are several factors at play
that influence average per-trip
spending across the top origin $900
Total Business Group Transient
markets. $800
What is the industry mix of each $700

origin, and where are the key end-
$600
markets for these industries? If
they're close by, spending will tend $500
to be lower than if they are more $400
widely dispersed.
$300
What is clear is that group
$200
business has the highest average
per-trip spending for all origin $100
markets. These trips tend to be $0
both longer in duration and farther LA NYC Chicago Dallas Philly SanFran Sacra- Atlanta DC Boston
from home, driving up expenses. mento
AVERAGE SPENDING BY TRIP PURPOSE, TOTAL BUSINESS

Rising prices across the board
have led to an increase in average $1,000 2002-2004
trip spending over the last several $900 2005-2007
years compared to the earlier part
$800
of the decade. Moderating prices
$700
this year and next will ease the
price-induced upward pressure on $600
spending. $500
$400
Travelers attending conventions
will on average spend the most $300
per trip while sales/purchasing $200

trips tend to incur the least travel $100
expense. $0
Convention Training Consulting Inspect/ Const'n/ Sales/ Gov't/ Other
Audit Repair Purchasing Military
SPENDING DISTRIBUTION BY CATEGORY, TOTAL BUSINESS, 2007
Transportation costs account for 5%

the highest share of business 8%
travel spending at 37%. 37%
11%
Food and accommodation account
for another 39% of average trip
spending.
Shopping, entertainment and
miscellaneous spending account 19%
for the remaining 24%. 20%
Transportation Food Room

Shopping Entertainment Miscellaneous
BUSINESS TRAVEL ACCOMMODATIONS
ANNUAL NIGHTS IN PAID ACCOMMODATIONS, 2007
25
Travelers for group business spend the
most nights in paid accommodations in 20
a year, with nearly 25% spending
Percent (%)
15
between 8 and 14 nights.
Transient business travelers travel more 10
frequently, however, and top the charts
5
at 20% of travelers spending 29 or more
nights a year in paid accommodations. 0
None 1-3 4-7 8-14 15-21 22-28 29+
nights nights nights nights nights nights
AVERAGE TRIP SPENDING BY ACCOMMODATION TYPE
$1,600
2002-2004
Since lodging accounts for nearly 20% $1,400
2005-2007
of the average business travelers trip $1,200
spending, where travelers stay can have
$1,000
a significant impact on average trip
spending. $800
$600
Those travelers staying in high-end
hotels spend nearly double on an $400
average trip than a traveler staying in an $200
economy hotel.
$0
Non-Paid Paid (Net) High-End Mid-Level Economy Other
(Net) Hotel Hotel Hotel
METHOD OF RESERVATION, 2007
30
Business travelers make reservations

25
for their trips and only 17% of travelers
will leave for their trip without making a
20
reservation.
Percent (%)
Travel agents get the smallest share of 15

reservations while corporate travel
departments get the largest. 10
Deals can be found by going directly to

5
hotel websites and this is also a popular
option.
0
None 800- Direct Corp. Travel Hotel Other Other
number Travel Dep't Agent Website Website
WHO IS THE TYPICAL BUSINESS TRAVELER?
BUSINESS TRAVELER AGE DISTRIBUTION, 2007
Nearly 50% of business travelers are 25% 26%

between 35 and 54 years of age.
18-34 Years
The remaining 50% is nearly evenly
distributed between travelers between 18 35-54 Years
and 34 years and over 55 years.
55 Years and
Older
49%
GENERATIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF BUSINESS TRAVELERS, 2007
45
The Gen X and Baby Boom generations
40
form the bulk of business travelers, together
Percentage (%)
35
accounting for nearly 80% of business 30
travelers in 2007. 25
20
The Millennials are early on in their careers
15
at this point and thus make up the smallest
10
share of business travelers. 5
0
Millennials GenX (1965- Boomers Silent (1930-
(1981-Present) 1980) (1946-1964) 1945)
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF BUSINESS TRAVELERS,

2007
Median household income is not very evenly

distributed across business travelers. There
are large shares at the top and bottom of
the scale and smaller shares in the middle. 34% 33% Under $50,000
34% of business travelers make over $50,000-$74,999

$100,000 while 33% make less than
$50,000. The remaining 33% make $75,000-$99,999
between $50,000 and $100,000.
$100,000 or Higher
15% 18%
BUSINESS TRAVELERS WITH CHILDREN LIVING IN HOUSEHOLD
2007
70
60
50
Only 40% of business travelers have
Percent (%)
children living at home. The remaining 60% 40
have no children living in their household. 30
20
10
0
No Children 5 years 6-9 years 10-12 13-17
old or old years old years old
younger

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Business Travel Market Metrics

A Global Analysis of Business Travel Activity

1 CONFIDENTIAL FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY

METHODOLOGY & APPROACH

BUSINESS TRAVEL'S CONTRIBUTION TO INDUSTRIES AROUND THE GLOBE

GLOBAL BUSINESS TRAVEL OUTLOOK

World Economy Annual Aggregate Forecast Numbers

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Real GDP 4.1 4.0 2.2 -2.6 1.9

Industrial Production 4.3 4.0 -0.3 -10.1 3.5

Real Retail Sales 2.8 2.6 0.3 -2.2 1.8

Consumer Price Index 3.1 3.3 5.0 1.5 2.2

Wholesale Price Index 4.6 4.1 8.6 -4.6 1.4

Money Supply, M1, Year-end 6.9 6.9 4.6 10.8 4.6

Broad Money Supply, Year-end 9.0 10.2 9.7 6.2 6.7

Policy Interest Rate (Percent) 4.9 4.9 3.2 2.2 2.5

Short-Term Interest Rate (Percent) 4.9 5.4 5.0 3.3 3.1

Long-Term Interest Rate (Percent) 4.7 5.0 4.8 4.3 4.3

Fiscal Balance (Share of GDP) -0.9 -0.4 -2.0 -6.9 -5.9

World 2.8 3.5 2.0

Implications for Global Business Travel

Growth in Business Travel Spending

Global Business Travel Target Markets 2008-2013

Bank ing & Finance Construction Communications Services

Equipment Rental & Leasing Fishing Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing

Motor Vehicles Medical, Precision & Optical

-4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, AUSTRALIA

Total Sales Business Travel Spending

Education $288.8 8.1% Emerging

Utilities $1,507.6 -0.6% Mature

Fabricated Metal Products $369.7 -3.4% Low Priority

Total $17,456.9 -0.7% Mature

BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, AUSTRIA

Total Sales Business Travel Spending

Hotels & Restaurants $218.5 -0.4% Emerging

Utilities $1,459.5 -30.2% Mature

Wood & Wood Products $208.8 -52.9% Low Priority

Total $9,370.3 -0.4% Star

BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, BELGIUM

Total Sales Business Travel Spending

Rubber & Plastic Manufacturing $320.7 2.2% Emerging

Professional & Business Services $1,828.8 -2.4% Mature

Non-Metallic Mineral Products $313.6 -2.6% Low Priority

Total $13,766.1 -0.9% Mature

BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, BRAZIL

Total Sales Business Travel Spending

Equipment Rental & Leasing $379.9 -3.6% Emerging

Professional & Business Services $719.5 -4.7% Mature

Research & Development Services $285.6 -5.5% Low Priority

Total $20,230.0 -2.5% Star

BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, CANADA

Total Sales Business Travel Spending

Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry, Fishing $426.2 3.3% Emerging

Utilities $1,378.5 -39.6% Mature

Wood & Wood Products $311.5 -56.4% Low Priority

Total $19,908.9 3.1% Star

BUSINESS TRAVEL SPENDING, CHINA

Total Sales Business Travel Spending

Communications Services $2,213.1 8.3% Emerging

Utilities $15,297.8 6.3% Mature

Basic Metals Manufacturing $2,210.9 3.8% Low Priority