Discrete Probability: CMSC 55 (Discrete Math Structures in Computer Science)

Discrete Probability
Lecture 4
Definition of Probability
Probability Theory
CMSC 55 (Discrete Math Structures in Computer Science)
Conditional Probability
Independence
Bernoulli Trials and

Binomial Distribution
Richard Bryann Chua

University of the Philippines Manila
4.1
Agenda
1 Definition of Probability
Probability Theory
2 Probability Theory Independence

3 Conditional Probability
4 Independence
5 Bernoulli Trials and Binomial Distribution
4.2
Definition
An experiment is a procedure that yields one of a given set of
possible outcomes. The sample space of the experiment is
the set of possible outcomes. An event is a subset of the Definition of Probability
sample space. Probability Theory
Independence

4.3
Definition
Independence
Laplace’s Definition of Probability Bernoulli Trials and
If S is a finite space of equally likely outcomes, and E is an
event, that is, a subset of S, then the probability of E is
|E|
Pr(E) =
|S|
4.3
Definition
Independence
Laplace’s Definition of Probability Bernoulli Trials and
If S is a finite space of equally likely outcomes, and E is an
event, that is, a subset of S, then the probability of E is
|E|
Pr(E) =
|S|
Remark: The probability of an event is between 0 and 1,

inclusive. A probability of 0 means the event will never happen.
A probability of 1 means the event will surely happen.
4.3
Example
An urn contains four blue balls and five red balls. What is the
probability that a ball chosen from the urn is blue?
Probability Theory
Independence

4.4
Example
What is the probability that when two dice are rolled, the sum
of the number on the two dice is 7?
Probability Theory
Independence

4.5
Example
What is the probability that a poker hand contains a full house?
Probability Theory
Independence

4.6
Probability of Combination of Events
Theorem
Let E be an event in a sample space S. The probability of the
event E 0 , the complementary event of E, is given by
Pr[E 0 ] = 1 − Pr[E] Probability Theory
Independence

4.7
Theorem
Let E be an event in a sample space S. The probability of the
event E 0 , the complementary event of E, is given by
Pr[E 0 ] = 1 − Pr[E] Probability Theory
Proof: Recall that |E 0 | = |S| − |E|. Independence

0 |S| − |E|
Pr[E ] =
|S|
|E|
= 1−
|S|
= 1 − Pr[E]
4.7
Example
A sequence of ten bits is randomly generated. What is the
probability that at least one of these bits is 0?
Probability Theory
Independence

4.8
Theorem
Let E1 and E2 be events in the sample space S. Then
Pr[E1 ∪ E2 ] = Pr[E1 ] + Pr[E2 ] − Pr[E1 ∩ E2 ] Definition of Probability
Probability Theory
Independence

4.9
Theorem
Let E1 and E2 be events in the sample space S. Then
Pr[E1 ∪ E2 ] = Pr[E1 ] + Pr[E2 ] − Pr[E1 ∩ E2 ] Definition of Probability
Probability Theory
Proof: Recall |E1 ∪ E2 | = |E1 | + |E2 | − |E1 ∩ E2 |. Conditional Probability
Independence
|E1 ∪ E2 | Bernoulli Trials and

Pr[E1 ∪ E2 ] = Binomial Distribution
|S|
|E1 | + |E2 | − |E1 ∩ E2 |
=
|S|
= Pr[E1 ] + Pr[E2 ] − Pr[E1 ∩ E2 ]
4.9
Example
What is the probability that a positive integer selected at
random from the set of positive integer not exceeding 100 is
divisible by either 2 or 5?
Probability Theory
Independence

4.10
Assigning Probabilities
Definition
Let S be the sample space of an experiment with a finite or
countable number of outcomes. We assign a probability Pr[s]
to each outcome s meeting the following conditions: Definition of Probability
Probability Theory
1 0 ≤ Pr[s] ≤ 1 ∀s ∈ S Conditional Probability
P
s∈S Pr[s] = 1
2
Independence

The function Pr from the set of all outcomes of the sample Binomial Distribution
space S is called a probability distribution.
4.11
Example
What probabilities should we assign to the outcomes H
(heads) and T (tails) when a fair coin is flipped? What
probabilities should be assigned to these outcomes when the
coin is biased so that heads come up twice as often as tails? Definition of Probability
Probability Theory
Independence

4.12
Definition
Suppose that S is a set with n elements. The uniform
distribution assigns the probability 1/n to each element of S.
Probability Theory
Independence

4.13
Definition
Suppose that S is a set with n elements. The uniform
distribution assigns the probability 1/n to each element of S.
Probability Theory
Definition Conditional Probability
The probability of an event E is the sum of the probabilities of Independence
the outcomes in E. That is, Bernoulli Trials and

X
Pr[E] = Pr[s]
s∈E
P
(Note that when E is an infinite set, s∈E Pr[s] is a convergent
time series.)
4.13
Example
Suppose that a die is biased (or loaded) so that 3 appears
twice as often as each other number but that the other five
outcomes are equally likely. What is the probability that an odd
number appears when we roll the die? Definition of Probability
Probability Theory
Independence

4.14
Theorem
If E1 , E2 , . . . is a sequence of pairwise disjoint events in a
sample space S, then
" #
[ X Probability Theory
Pr Et = Pr [Et ] Conditional Probability
t t Independence

4.15
Definition
Let E and F be events with Pr[F ] > 0. The conditional
probability of E given F , denoted by Pr[E|F ], is defined as
Pr[E ∩ F ] Probability Theory

Pr[E|F ] =
Pr[F ] Conditional Probability
Independence

4.16
Example
An urn contains 1 black and 2 red balls. Two balls are drawn
one after the other. What is the probability that the second ball
drawn is red given that the first ball is black?
Probability Theory
Independence

4.17
Example
In the previous example, find the probability that the first ball is
black and the second ball is red.
Probability Theory
Independence

4.18
Example
Two cards are drawn in succession from a standard deck.
What is the probability that both cards are red?
Probability Theory
Independence

4.19
Example
Suppose that in the first example (1 black and 2 red balls), the
balls are drawn with replacement. What would the resulting
probability be?
Probability Theory
Independence

4.20
Example
A bit string of length four is generated at random so that each
of 16 bit strings of length four is equally likely. What is the
probability that it contains at least two consecutive 0s given
that its first bit is a 0? Definition of Probability
Probability Theory
Independence

4.21
Independence
Definition
The event E and F are independent iff. Pr[E ∩ F ] = Pr[E] Pr[F ].
Remark: Events that are not independent are called dependent Definition of Probability
events. Probability Theory
Independence

4.22
Example
In a freshmen class, exam results showed that 15% of the
students failed Physics, 16% failed English and 2% failed both
Physics and English. Are the two events, failing Physics and
failing English, independent? Definition of Probability
Probability Theory
Independence

4.23
Example
Are the events E, that a family with three children has children
of both sexes and F , that a family with three children has at
most one boy, independent. Assume that the eight ways a
family can have three children are equally likely. Definition of Probability
Probability Theory
Independence

4.24
Pairwise and Mutual Independence
Definition
The events E1 , E2 , . . . , En are pairwise independent iff.
Pr[Ei ∩ Ej ] = Pr[E1 ] Pr[E2 ] for all pairs of integers i and j with
1 ≤ i < j ≤ n. These events are mutually independent if Definition of Probability
Pr[Ei1 ∩ Ei2 ∩ · · · ∩ Eim ] = Pr[Ei1 ] Pr[Ei2 ] · · · Pr[Eim ] whenever Probability Theory
ij , j = 1, 2, . . . , m, are integers with 1 ≤ i1 < i2 < . . . < im ≤ n
Independence
and m ≥ 2.
4.25
Bernoulli Trial and Binomial Distribution
Bernoulli Trial
Each performance of an experiment with two possible
outcomes is called a Bernoulli trial. A possible outcome of a
Bernoulli trial is called a success or failure. If p is the Definition of Probability
probability of a success and q is a probability of failure, then Probability Theory
p + q = 1.
Independence

4.26
Bernoulli Trial and Binomial Distribution
Bernoulli Trial
Each performance of an experiment with two possible
outcomes is called a Bernoulli trial. A possible outcome of a
Bernoulli trial is called a success or failure. If p is the Definition of Probability
probability of a success and q is a probability of failure, then Probability Theory
p + q = 1.
Independence

The probability of exactly k successes in n independent
Bernoulli trials, with probability of success p and probability of
failure q = 1 − p, is C(n, k )pk q n−k .
4.26
Example
A coin is biased so that the probability of heads is 2/3. What is
the probability that exactly four heads come up when the coin is
flipped seven times, assuming that the flips are independent?
Probability Theory
Independence

4.27
Example
Suppose that the probability that a 0 bit is generated is 0.9, that
the probability that a 1 bit is generated is 0.1, and that bits are
generated independently. What is the probability that exactly
eight 0 bits are generated when 10 bits are generated? Definition of Probability
Probability Theory
Independence

4.28

Discrete Probability: CMSC 55 (Discrete Math Structures in Computer Science)

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Discrete Probability

Bernoulli Trials and

Richard Bryann Chua

Bernoulli Trials and

5 Bernoulli Trials and Binomial Distribution

sample space. Probability Theory

Bernoulli Trials and

sample space. Probability Theory

sample space. Probability Theory

Remark: The probability of an event is between 0 and 1,

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

Pr[E 0 ] = 1 − Pr[E] Probability Theory

Bernoulli Trials and

Pr[E 0 ] = 1 − Pr[E] Probability Theory

Proof: Recall that |E 0 | = |S| − |E|. Independence

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

Pr[E1 ∪ E2 ] = Pr[E1 ] + Pr[E2 ] − Pr[E1 ∩ E2 ] Definition of Probability

Bernoulli Trials and

Pr[E1 ∪ E2 ] = Pr[E1 ] + Pr[E2 ] − Pr[E1 ∩ E2 ] Definition of Probability

Proof: Recall |E1 ∪ E2 | = |E1 | + |E2 | − |E1 ∩ E2 |. Conditional Probability

|E1 ∪ E2 | Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

The probability of an event E is the sum of the probabilities of Independence

the outcomes in E. That is, Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

Pr[E ∩ F ] Probability Theory

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

events. Probability Theory

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

Pr[Ei1 ∩ Ei2 ∩ · · · ∩ Eim ] = Pr[Ei1 ] Pr[Ei2 ] · · · Pr[Eim ] whenever Probability Theory

probability of a success and q is a probability of failure, then Probability Theory

Bernoulli Trials and

probability of a success and q is a probability of failure, then Probability Theory

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

Bernoulli Trials and

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