Regional stability

Deterrence
- Have to be sure they cause damage before US/SK to
- Warrant 1: perception
- NK is a rational actor
Thaad improves capability to engage in soft power
THAAD acts as a safety net
US will not negotiate until NK will denuclearize
Offensive capability
US and China conflict
Contention 1: Deterrence
The Guardian in May 2017 reports that the Korean peninsula is the the world’s largest hotspot and a
dangerous situation in which a war may break out at any moment.

There are two ways in which THAAD deters North Korea

First is the perception that THAAD creates.
Fisher of the New York Times writes in 2016 that
Fisher, Max. "North Korea, Far From Crazy, Is All Too Rational." The New York Times. The New York Times, 10 Sept. 2016. Web. 12 July 2017.
But political scientists have repeatedly investigated this question and, time and again, emerged with the same answer: North Korea’s
behavior, far from crazy, is all too rational.

Oba of the Diplomat writes in 2017 that

Mintaro Oba, The Diplomat, Diplomat, 5-1-2017, ["Trump’s Mafia Diplomacy Rattles South Korea", http://thediplomat.com/2017/05/trumps-
mafia-diplomacy-rattles-south-korea/] DOA: 7-11-2017 KZ
When [the US] we invest[s] in South Korean defense
Deterrence is the primary function of the security alliance.
capabilities, we [the US] increases the probable costs to North Korea of an attack on South Korea and
reduce the likelihood that such an attack can succeed. Investing in South Korean security is an
investment in preventing a costly new Korean War.

Second is security guarantee.

Revere of the Brookings Institute writes in 2016 that the powerful deterrent provided by the US and
South Korea security alliance has kept peace on the Korean Peninsula for over 63 years. He furthers that
in the Asia-Pacific region, the South Korean security alliance is more important than ever.

Rogin of the Washington Post writes in March 2017

Josh Rogin,033-29-17, ["Will Trump stand up for South Korea with China’s Xi Jinping?", https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/josh-
rogin/wp/2017/03/29/will-trump-stand-up-for-south-korea-with-chinas-xi-jinping/?utm_term=.18b8dae9ad5d] DOA: 7-12-2017 KZ
“The Chinese are trying to use this moment to rattle the nerves of an incoming administration in South Korea. If there’s any time that we need
to protect our ally, it’s now,” Cory Gardner (R-Colo.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on Asia, told me. “THAAD is
an incredibly important part of strengthening[the US - Korean alliance] our alliance and showing our commitment
to our alliance with South Korea.”

The impact is twofold.

First, deescalating the region.

Contention Two: Trilateral Cooperation

CNN writes that the expansion of the US and Japan’s anti-missile systems for the purpose of combatting
North Korea has proved a critical milestone in the cooperative development for these countries.
Klingner in 2014 explains that Seoul and Tokyo would need to establish new military relationships and
share security information to make a regional missile network.
Kim of the Diplomat explains in March 2017 that
Yu Bin Kim The Diplomat, Diplomat, 3-22-2017, ["Hey, China: Deploying THAAD Is South Korea’s Sovereign Right", http://thediplomat.com/2017/03/hey-china-deploying-thaad-is-south-koreas-
sovereign-right/] DOA: 7-12-2017 KZ
How exactly does the THAAD system undermine Chinese security? Unfortunately, China has never provided a clear answer to this question, but many experts agree that Beijing fears THAAD’s
X-band radar the most, along with the possibility of an increased missile defense cooperation among the U.S. and its allies. In Beijing’s eyes, the X-band radar could jeopardize the credibility of

[the]
its second-strike capability by reaching deep into Chinese territory. (China has a no-first-use nuclear policy.) Concomitantly, China remains quite wary of the development of a

U.S.-Japan-South Korea trilateral military alliance that could emerge from Seoul’s eventual integration
into the U.S.-led missile defense system. The formation of such an alliance would be a nightmare for China as it would beef up Washington’s encirclement
strategy.Dawson of WSJ continues that the US and Japan are looking to export military systems to other nations such as South Korea. Thankfully, he concludes that such cooperation would
augment new trilateral military operations among the U.S., Japan and South Korea.

The trilateral alliance is uniquely beneficial because better security cooperation means more focus on
the economy.

Yonhap News writes that in the 2017 South Korean budget, military spending will account for 10
percent of the country's overall budget.

Unfortunately, an empirical study by the Naval Postgraduate School finds that rapid defense
industrialization in 1995 brought negative effects on the economy, including overcapacity, inflation,
increasing tax burden, and foreign debts.

The University of Wisconsin empirically confirms that increased military spending in South Korea
resulted in a negative effect on economic growth via investments and exports.

Fortunately, the Congressional Research Center in 2013 writes that collaborative missile defense
systems can decrease military spending for South Korea by decreasing the needed number of weapon
launching sites in East Asia by 67%.

Thus, the University of Wisconsin explains that reductions in defense spending will immediately
generate more capital resources and boost exports, which in turn helps economic growth.

In fact, Bandow of National Interest in 2015 furthers that cuts in South Korea’s defense budget would
go towards funding education, exports, and other domestic welfare programs.

Thus, we affirm.
Contention 3: Offense