WORLDWIDE

DIGITAL VIDEO
VIEWERS
eMarketer’s Estimates for
2016–2020
JANUARY 2017
Corey McNair
Contributor: Oscar Orozco

Read this on
eMarketer for iPad
 WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES
FOR 2016–2020
In 2017, there will be about 2.15 billion digital video viewers, representing 29.0% of the global population.
Penetration lags in developing markets due to varying levels of infrastructure maturity.

■■ eMarketer estimates the number of digital video Digital Video Viewers and Penetration Worldwide,
viewers will climb by over 100 million each year through 2016-2020
billions, % change and % of internet users
2020, when it will surpass 2.50 billion. During that
2.51
time, more than six out of 10 internet users globally will 2.40
2.28
2.15
watch at least one digital video per month. 1.98
62.2% 62.8% 63.2% 63.4%
60.8%
■■ The majority of new digital video viewers will come
from developing countries in Asia-Pacific, Latin America
and the Middle East and Africa, due to increased
access to 3G, 4G and Wi-Fi and improved solutions for
the bandwidth video requires.
10.1% 8.2% 6.1% 5.4% 4.5%
■■ Penetration is highest in North America, where more
than two-thirds of the population will watch digital 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
video in 2017. While Asia-Pacific and Latin America have Digital video viewers % of internet users % change

higher total numbers of digital video viewers because Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video
content via any device at least once per month
of larger populations, a lack of infrastructure in some Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016
developing countries explains lower penetration rates. 220802 www.eMarketer.com

KEY STAT: Roughly 2.15 billion internet users worldwide

■■ Growth is leveling off in developed markets like North will view at least one digital video per month in 2017,
America and Western Europe. The initial surge in digital up nearly 75% from 1.22 billion in 2012. Viewership will
video viewership has passed, and most of those who continue to grow, reaching 2.51 billion by 2020.
want to watch digital video are already doing so.

WHAT’S IN THIS REPORT? This report includes eMarketer’s

forecast for worldwide digital video viewers. The
projections, which run through 2020, include breakouts by CONTENTS
region and country. The full data set for this forecast can
be found in this report’s accompanying spreadsheet. 2 Worldwide Digital Video Viewers: eMarketer’s Estimates
for 2016–2020

eMarketer defines digital video viewers as internet users

3 Worldwide Overview
of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video 4 Asia-Pacific
content via any device at least once per month.
5 Central and Eastern Europe
6 Latin America
7 Middle East and Africa
7 North America
8 Western Europe
9 Editorial and Production Contributors

WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 2
 WORLDWIDE OVERVIEW
Digital video viewership growth worldwide has
been spurred by the general expansion of internet
and mobile internet usage, faster mobile internet
connections, and increased data and Wi-Fi availability
across developing countries. eMarketer expects
that about 29.0% of the world’s population will
view digital video at least monthly in 2017, and that
number will reach nearly a third by 2020.
Digital Video Viewer Penetration Worldwide,
2016-2020
% of population
32.8%
30.5%
31.8%
29.0%
27.1%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video
content via any device at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016
221423 www.eMarketer.com
eMarketer’s complete estimates for worldwide
digital video viewers can be found in this report’s
accompanying spreadsheet.
More than 62% of the world’s internet users will view
digital video in 2017, up from 60.8% in 2016. Digital
video viewership’s uptake has primarily occurred in
developed markets such as the US, Canada and the UK,
where internet infrastructure can meet the bandwidth
demands of digital video. Strong internet speeds enable
consumers to watch entire TV programs online through
over-the-top (OTT) services and share videos via social
media channels.
eMarketer projects the share of global internet users who
watch digital video will increase marginally to 63.4% in
2020. While this growth is small, the consumers who
view video will spend more time watching content.
WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 3
Digital video viewership worldwide has recorded
double-digit increases annually since 2013, but 2017
will mark the first year where growth will fall to
single-digit rates, at 8.2%. Developing markets such as
India, Indonesia and the Middle East and Africa lag behind
by this measure due to a lack of infrastructure that can
provide access to mobile and household broadband.
While internet users can go online and access social
media, slower mobile internet speeds and expensive
data plans have tended to limit video consumption.
However, these markets will experience some of the
fastest growth rates due primarily to the rise of more
affordable data plans, faster internet speeds and improved
Wi-Fi availability.
Digital video viewership growth will remain steady, in
part due to the increased availability of content created
in local languages. The option to download videos will
also spur some growth, as consumers seek alternatives
to poor mobile connection streaming while on the go.
The top video sources worldwide consist of OTT services
like Hulu, Netflix and Vimeo and social media platforms
Facebook and YouTube. Among the top players in China,
where 569.0 million digital video viewers reside, are
internet platform Sohu and video hosting site YouKu
Tudou. In January 2016, Netflix expanded its service
to 130 markets, bringing the total to 190 countries
worldwide. And in November 2016, Netflix announced
that viewers can now download videos to their devices
for offline viewing. It remains to be seen whether other
platforms will follow suit. Each country typically has
second- and third-tier local video services that overlap in
usage with the top platforms.
Behind the Numbers
eMarketer’s forecasts and estimates are based on
an analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from
research firms, government agencies, media firms and
public companies, plus interviews with top executives
at publishers, ad buyers and agencies. Data is weighted
based on methodology and soundness. Each eMarketer
forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts,
with the same assumptions and general framework used
to project figures in a wide variety of areas. Regular
re-evaluation of available data means the forecasts reflect
the latest business developments, technology trends and
economic changes.
 ASIA-PACIFIC As such, digital video in China lags behind social media
penetration as one of the leading social platforms,
Tencent’s WeChat, acts as a gateway for video
With 1.10 billion digital video viewers in 2017,
consumption. However, video-on-demand (VOD) services
Asia-Pacific will account for more than half of the are making headway, including iQiyi, an on-demand video
worldwide total. However, that number will represent streaming service that reported $1.5 billion in revenues
only 27.0% of the total population in Asia-Pacific. for 2016 from video subscriptions, advertising and
eMarketer expects digital video viewers in Asia-Pacific other sources.
will rise 10.3% this year and climb at a steady
Total population penetration for digital video viewership
pace through the forecast period due to increased
across Asia-Pacific is lower than other regions worldwide
smartphone penetration and mobile broadband due to countries with high population counts and low
growth, along with faster data speeds. household broadband accessibility. India is a primary
example. In a population of over 1.28 billion people, a little
Digital Video Viewers and Penetration in Asia-Pacific, over a third are connected to the internet, and only 13.9%
2016-2020 of the population will view digital video in 2017.
billions, % change and % of internet users
1.34 In December 2016, Google announced that YouTube, one
1.26
1.18 of the country’s leading platforms, would add 11 local
1.10
languages to YouTube India’s homepage and trending
1.00
58.9% 59.4%
section. There has also been traction in urban India, with
56.8% 58.4% 59.2%
consumers accessing Hotstar (part of the Star Network)
for online TV streaming while on the go. Other digital
TV platforms garnering the attention of advertisers and
viewers include Sony LIV (part of the Sony Television
Network) and Voot (part of Viacom 18).
12.6% 10.3% 7.6% 6.7% 5.7%

Digital Video Viewers in Asia-Pacific, by Country,

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2016-2020
Digital video viewers % of internet users % change millions and % change
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video
content via any device at least once per month Digital video viewers (millions)
Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016
China 530.4 569.0 602.3 634.5 662.9
220797 www.eMarketer.com
India 149.7 178.1 201.0 222.7 244.1
Asia-Pacific exhibits high video viewing penetration in Japan 67.0 68.4 69.4 70.2 70.9
mature markets such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. Indonesia 66.6 75.9 85.5 94.1 101.1
At least half of the population in each of these countries South Korea 31.9 32.5 33.0 33.5 33.8
will view at least one digital video per month in 2017. Such Australia 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.3

countries already have high internet user penetration Other 139.0 162.7 179.0 194.7 208.3
Asia-Pacific 998.0 1,100.3 1,184.1 1,263.8 1,335.4
rates and support consumer access and demand for
Digital video viewer growth (% change)
digital video.
India 35.8% 19.0% 12.8% 10.8% 9.6%
Indonesia 15.0% 13.9% 12.7% 10.1% 7.4%
China will have 569.0 million digital video viewers in
China* 7.6% 7.3% 5.8% 5.4% 4.5%
2017 but will rank behind these countries in population Japan 3.8% 2.1% 1.5% 1.1% 1.0%
penetration, at 41.5%. Large parts of China lag in access Australia 3.0% 2.3% 1.8% 1.5% 1.4%
to household broadband and mobile. Still, the share of South Korea 2.3% 1.8% 1.6% 1.3% 1.0%
internet users who watch digital video is high, at 75.4%, Other 19.1% 17.1% 10.0% 8.8% 7.0%
as parts of the country have very developed infrastructure Asia-Pacific 12.6% 10.3% 7.6% 6.7% 5.7%
with fast internet speeds at affordable costs. This Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video
content via any device at least once per month
foundation has enabled social media to become ingrained Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016
in the culture, even in areas without the bandwidth to 221567 www.eMarketer.com

stream video.

WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 4
Indonesia will also have low digital video penetration
among the overall population, at 29.1% in 2017. However,
when it comes to penetration among internet viewers,
Indonesia will rank just ahead of Japan’s internet
users, with 67.4% viewing digital video this year.
This is due to consumers having fast mobile internet
speeds and consuming large amounts of Facebook and
YouTube content.
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
eMarketer estimates there will be 181.7 million digital
video viewers in Central and Eastern Europe this
year, a 6.3% increase from 2016. Russia will account
for roughly 40% of total digital video viewership in
the region.

Asia-Pacific will trail only the Middle East and Africa in

Digital Video Viewers and Penetration in Central &
digital video viewer growth over the forecast period. Eastern Europe, 2016-2020
As infrastructure develops, eMarketer expects at least millions, % change and % of internet users
5% gains each year through 2020. By then, digital video 200.7
195.8
viewers in Asia-Pacific will surpass 1.33 billion. 189.3
181.7
171.0

72.4% 73.0% 73.8%

69.6% 71.5%

10.5%
6.3% 4.2% 3.4% 2.5%

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Digital video viewers % change % of internet users

Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video
content via any device at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016
221424 www.eMarketer.com

Even in developing markets, digital video has a sizable

presence in Central and Eastern Europe. More than 42%
of the population will view at least one digital video a
month in 2017, and penetration among internet users will
be 71.5%.

Russia is a large driver of internet penetration: It leads all

of Europe in digital video viewers, at 72.4 million this
year. This is not due solely to its relatively large population,
but also to strong video viewing among more than
three-quarters of internet users. Russia’s top social
platform, VK (formerly Vkontakte), spurred growth by
heavily integrating video functionality, even before
Facebook did.

Digital video viewer penetration rates in Russia are high,

so growth will fall to the low single digits through 2020,
which will be a slower pace compared with the rest
of the region. Future growth will likely come from an
increasingly competitive and crowded market, including
Mail.ru’s OTT platform Afisha.Mail.ru and expanding
services, such as Netflix.

WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 5
 LATIN AMERICA
Latin America will have the second highest penetration
rate of digital video viewers among internet users,
eMarketer estimates. Nearly three-quarters of internet
users in Latin America will view digital video this year.
However, at 265.4 million viewers, only 42.5% of the
population will view digital video in 2017.
Among countries in Latin America, Mexico has the
fastest viewership growth rates. eMarketer estimates
digital video viewers will grow by 9.2% in 2017 and 7.3%
in 2018. Growth in the region will be attributed to more
affordable smartphones, which will make video more
accessible. eMarketer forecasts that Latin America will
have over 300 million digital video viewers in 2020.

Digital Video Viewers in Latin America, by Country,

2016-2020
millions and % change
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Digital video viewers (millions)
Brazil 86.8 91.7 95.1 97.9 100.6
Mexico 55.4 60.5 64.9 68.8 71.2
Argentina 22.1 22.8 23.5 24.2 24.8
Other 84.1 90.3 96.2 101.7 106.1
Latin America 248.4 265.4 279.7 292.7 302.8
Digital video viewer growth (% change)
Mexico 12.7% 9.2% 7.3% 6.0% 3.5%
Brazil 7.3% 5.6% 3.7% 3.0% 2.8%
Argentina 4.6% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 2.6%
Other 11.3% 7.4% 6.5% 5.8% 4.3%
Latin America 9.5% 6.8% 5.4% 4.6% 3.4%
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video
content via any device at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016
221426 www.eMarketer.com

In general, high data costs and phones, slow internet

speeds and a lack of Wi-Fi and/or mobile coverage in
many areas will keep penetration low among the total
population. Brazil will have the most digital video viewers
in the region this year, at 91.7 million, but penetration
among the total population will be just 44.2%. YouTube,
Netflix and Globo are among the most popular video
platforms in the country.

In Argentina and Mexico, digital video viewer penetration

rates among the total population will hover at around
50% this year. YouTube is one of the most popular
video platforms for the 60.5 million digital video viewers
in Mexico. Netflix has a strong presence as well, at
4.3 million subscribers, which is 5% of Netflix’s global
subscriber base. There will be 22.8 million digital video
viewers in Argentina in 2017, and as in Mexico, YouTube is
the top video platform.

WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 6
 MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA NORTH AMERICA
The Middle East and Africa will see the fastest growth North America has the highest digital video viewer
in digital video viewership through 2020, as more penetration rate in the world. At nearly 245 million
people gain access to smartphones and faster mobile digital video viewers, 80.8% of internet users in the
internet speeds. In 2017, eMarketer estimates, digital region will watch digital video in 2017.
video viewers in the region will total 135.0 million. By
2020, that number will reach 173.3 million. Digital Video Viewers in North America, by Country,
2016-2020
millions and % change
Digital Video Viewers and Penetration in the Middle 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
East & Africa, 2016-2020
millions, % change and % of internet users Digital video viewers (millions)
US 215.1 221.8 227.5 232.1 235.9
173.3
160.9 Canada 22.5 23.1 23.6 24.1 24.4
148.3 North America 237.6 244.9 251.1 256.2 260.3
135.0 Digital video viewer growth (% change)
117.6 US 3.9% 3.1% 2.6% 2.0% 1.6%
Canada 2.7% 2.7% 2.1% 1.9% 1.3%
North America 3.7% 3.1% 2.5% 2.0% 1.6%
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video
42.8% 43.7% 44.6% content via any device at least once per month
39.0% 41.7%
Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016
221425 www.eMarketer.com

15.3% 14.8%
9.8% 8.5%
2016 2017 2018 2019
Digital video viewers % change % of internet users
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video
content via any device at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016
221428 www.eMarketer.com
Fewer than one in 10 people in the Middle East and Africa
will watch digital video at least monthly this year. This
is mainly due to the high cost of smartphones and data
plans, as well as a lack of infrastructure that would allow
more of the population access to the internet. Penetration
is also low among internet users, at 41.7%, indicating
that some internet connections in the region lack enough
bandwidth to meet the demands of digital video.
Growth in the region has been driven by people gaining
internet access. eMarketer expects a 14.8% increase in
digital video viewers in 2017 and a 9.8% jump in 2018.
The US will account for more than 90% of digital video
7.7% viewers in North America, or 221.8 million people. Among
2020
the total population, more than two-thirds will watch
digital video in 2017.
The variety of video streaming options in the US is one
reason for this high penetration rate. Subscription
video-on-demand (SVOD) services like Netflix, Amazon
Prime and Hulu, and video hosting platforms like YouTube
and Vimeo, deliver new content daily to viewers. With
such high video saturation, growth is expected to remain
in the low single digits through 2020.
While platforms like Netflix, Amazon Prime and YouTube
are introducing or already have the option to download
video to view on the go, it won’t generate much additional
growth—rather it will increase consumption among
current viewers.
The market in Canada is only slightly behind the US for
digital video viewing penetration rates among internet
users and the total population. With 23.1 million digital
video viewers in 2017, total viewership in Canada is
expected to climb to 24.4 million by 2020. Among the top
video platforms, YouTube and Netflix are very popular in
the country, while Amazon Prime launched in December
2016 as well.

WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 7
 WESTERN EUROPE
Digital video viewer penetration rates in Western
Europe vary across the region, but they are generally
strong. eMarketer forecasts that digital video viewers
in Western Europe will reach 219.0 million in 2017,
representing over half the total population.
According to research firm Parks Associates, Spain
has one of the highest internet-only household rates in
Europe, implying that consumers there may be more
likely to pay for digital video services than they would
for pay TV subscriptions. Yomvi, a SVOD service bundled
with pay TV provider Movistar+, has seen some traction.
In addition, Netflix arrived at the end of 2015, and HBO
launched HBO España in November 2016.

Italy will have 25.7 million digital video viewers this

Digital Video Viewers and Penetration in Western
Europe, 2016-2020
year, eMarketer estimates, and the lowest population
millions, % change and % of internet users penetration rate in Western Europe, at 41.4%. This is
230.2 234.7 primarily due to two factors: Italy’s more rural character,
219.0 225.0
211.6 and internet speeds that are slower than most of the
70.7%
region as a result of low government investment. Italy’s
68.2% 69.1% 69.9%
66.9% population tends to skew older as well.

Digital Video Viewers in Western Europe, by Country,

2016-2020
millions and % change
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Digital video viewers (millions)
4.3% 3.5% 2.8% 2.3% UK 41.3 42.8 43.9 44.7 45.6
2.0%
Germany 39.0 40.4 41.3 42.1 42.8
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
France 31.2 32.2 33.2 34.0 34.7
Digital video viewers % of internet users % change
Italy 24.7 25.7 26.6 27.4 28.1
Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video Spain 22.1 23.1 24.0 24.8 25.5
content via any device at least once per month
Netherlands 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.5
Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016
220799 www.eMarketer.com Sweden 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.5
Denmark 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.8
The two largest markets for digital video viewers will be Norway 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7
the UK and Germany, with 42.8 million and 40.4 million Finland 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5
viewers, respectively. The UK is a mature market, with Other 26.2 27.1 27.9 28.5 29.0
nearly two-thirds of the population viewing digital video Western Europe 211.6 219.0 225.0 230.2 234.7
monthly. Germany’s rate is lower, with 50.1% of the Digital video viewer growth (% change)
population viewing video in 2017. Spain 5.5% 4.2% 3.9% 3.4% 3.0%
Germany 4.9% 3.6% 2.3% 1.9% 1.6%
Germany, France and Spain generally index lower in social UK 4.5% 3.5% 2.6% 2.0% 1.8%

media usage compared with the rest of the region, which France 4.4% 3.5% 3.0% 2.3% 2.1%
Italy 4.4% 3.9% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7%
limits potential exposure to digital video. France and
Denmark 3.3% 2.7% 2.2% 1.9% 1.3%
Spain will have 32.2 million and 23.1 million digital video
Sweden 3.3% 2.1% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3%
viewers, respectively, in 2017, amounting to a population
Finland 3.2% 2.9% 2.4% 2.1% 1.7%
penetration rate of around 50%.
Norway 3.1% 2.5% 2.2% 1.7% 1.5%
Netherlands 2.4% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.0%
Consumers in France, Germany, Italy and Spain still Other 3.8% 3.6% 2.7% 2.3% 1.8%
tend to be interested in viewing linear TV content. Western Europe 4.3% 3.5% 2.8% 2.3% 2.0%
Spain in particular is geared toward free-to-air broadcast Note: internet users of any age who watch streaming or downloaded video
programming, with consumers even more likely to have content via any device at least once per month
Source: eMarketer, Dec 2016
broadband access than pay TV. However, eMarketer 221427 www.eMarketer.com
expects Spain will have the fastest digital video viewer
growth rate in Western Europe in 2017, increasing 4.2%.

WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 8
The Nordic countries—Denmark, Finland, Norway
and Sweden—have seen large growth in digital video
EDITORIAL AND
viewership because of high internet penetration and PRODUCTION CONTRIBUTORS
fast connection speeds. The prevalence of knowing
English in these countries correlates heavily with high Cliff Annicelli Managing Editor, Reports
video viewing, as much of the most popular online video Michael Balletti Copy Editor
content is in English. Each of these countries will have a Joanne DiCamillo Senior Production Artist
roughly 70% penetration rate among internet users for Dana Hill Director of Production
digital video viewing this year. That said, the population Eden Kelley Chart Editor
in these countries is small and together make up just Stephanie Meyer Senior Production Artist
a fraction of the total digital video viewing audience in Kris Oser Deputy Editorial Director
Western Europe. Heather Price Senior Copy Editor
John Rambow Executive Editor, Reports
The Netherlands will rank second only to Norway in digital Allie Smith Director of Charts
video viewing penetration among the population (64.6%)
and internet users (74.5%) in Nordic countries this year.
The 11.0 million digital video viewers in the Netherlands
tend to stream video more than average consumers
in Western Europe. With such high penetration rates,
eMarketer projects the Netherlands will have one of
the slowest growth rates in Western Europe during the
forecast period.

Leaving aside North America, eMarketer forecasts

Western Europe will have the slowest digital video
viewership growth in 2017, at 3.5%. This is partly due to
the internet populations in France, Germany and Spain,
who still prefer viewing free linear TV rather than paying to
access digital video.

WORLDWIDE DIGITAL VIDEO VIEWERS: EMARKETER’S ESTIMATES FOR 2016–2020 ©2017 EMARKETER INC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED 9
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