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STAT 20/21 Worksheet 15 November 17, 2016

Chapter 26
Problem 1. A simple random sample of 1,600 persons is taken to estimate the percentage
of Democrats among the 25,000 eligible voters in a certain town. It turns out that 917 people
in the sample are Democrats. Find a 95 percent interval for the percentage of Democrats
among all 25,000 eligible voters.

Problem 2. A box contains a large number of red and blue marbles, but the proportions are
unknown; 100 marbles are drawn at random, and 53 turn out to be red. Say whether each of
the following statements are true or false, and explain briefly.

(a) A 95 percent confidence interval for the percentage of red marbles in the box is 43
percent to 63 percent.

(b) A 95 percent confidence interval for the percentage of red marbles in the sample is 43
percent to 63 percent.

Problem 3. There are about 2700 institutions of higher learning in the United States. In
1976, as part of a continuing study of higher education, the Carnegie Commission took a
simple random sample of the institutions. The average enrollment in the 225 sample schools
was 3700, with an SD of 6000. A histogram for the enrollments was plotted and did not
follow the normal curve. However, average enrollment at all 2700 institutions was estimated
to be around 3700 give or take 400 or so. Say whether each of the following statements is
true or false, and explain why.

(a) It is estimated that 95 percent of the institutions of higher learning in the US enroll
between 2900 and 4500 students.

(b) An approximate 95 percent confidence interval for the average enrollment of all 2700
institutions runs from 2900 to 4500.

(c) If someone takes a simple random sample of 225 institutions of higher learning, and
goes two SE’s either way from the average enrollment of the 225 sample schools, there
is about a 95 percent chance that the interval will cover the average of all 2700 schools.

(d) The normal curve can’t be used to figure the confidence interval here at all because the
data doesn’t follow the normal curve.

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STAT 20/21 Worksheet 15 November 17, 2016

Problem 4. I would like to know the fraction of homes in Alameda County, California, that
have assessed values of 700,000 dollars or more. I take a simple random sample of size 400
from the Alameda County property tax records (somehow). The sample percentage of homes
assessed at 700,000 dollars or more is 7 percent.
An approximate 86 percent confidence interval for the percentage of homes assessed at
700,000 dollars or more is between (Give the range) ?

Problem 5. To determine the average lifetime of their light-emitting diode (LED) light
bulbs, a manufacturer takes a simple random sample of 160 bulbs from a manufacturing lot
of 34,000 bulbs. The mean lifetime of the bulbs in the sample is 98.55 thousand hours, and
the sample standard deviation of their lifetimes is 5.69 thousand hours.

An approximate 80 percent confidence interval for the average lifetime of the bulbs in the
manufacturing lot would extend from thousand hours (low) to thou-
sand hours (high).

Problem 6. A simple random sample of 1000 persons is taken to estimate the percentage
of Democrats in a large population. It turns out that 543 of the people in the sample are
Democrats. True or false, and explain:
543
(a) The sample percentage is 1000
× 100% = 54.3%; the SE for the sample percentage is
1.6%.

(b) 54.3% ± 3.2% is a 95% confidence interval for the population percentage.

(c) 54.3% ± 3.2% is a 95% confidence interval for the sample percentage.

(d) There is about 95% chance for the percentage of Democrats in the population to be in
the range 54.3% ± 3.2%.

Problem 7. (Problem 7 continued) True or false, explain: If another survey organization


takes a simple random sample of 1000 persons, there is about 95% chance that the percentage
of Democrats in their sample will be in the range 54.3% ± 3.2%.

Problem 8. At a large university, 54.3% of the students are female and 45.7% are male. A
simple random sample of 1000 persons is drawn from this population. The SE for the sample
percentage of females is figured as 1.6%. True or false: There is about 95% chance for the
percentage of females in the sample to be in the range 54.3% ± 3.2%.

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STAT 20/21 Worksheet 15 November 17, 2016

Problem 9. Suppose you have a coin, and for each toss, the probability for it to show a head
is P . Now if you toss the coin for 6 times, how will you test the hypothesis that P = 0.5,
against the alternative hypothesis that P > 0.5, at significance level 10.9%? And calculate
the power of this test against the alternative hypothesis that p = 0.7.

Problem 10. True or false:

(a) A ”highly significant” result cannot possibly be due to chance.

(b) If a difference is ”highly significant”, there is less than a 1% cahnce for the null hy-
pothesis to be right.

Problem 11. True or false:

(a) If P is 34%, the null hypothesis looks plausible.

(b) If P is 0.43 of 1%, the null hypothesis looks implausible.

Problem 12. True or false:

(a) If the observed significance level is 4%, the result is ”statistically significant”.

(b) If the P-value of a test is 1.1%, the result is ”highly significant.”

(c) If a difference is ”highly significant”, then P is less than 1%.

(d) If the observed significance level is 3.6%, then P = 3.6%.

(e) If z = 2.3, then the observed value is 2.3 SEs above what is expected on the null hy-
pothesis.

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STAT 20/21 Worksheet 15 November 17, 2016

Problem 13. One hundred investigators set out to test the null hypothesis that the average
of the numbers in a certain box equals 50. Each investigator takes 250 tickets at random with
replacement, computes the average of the draws, and does a z-test. The results are plotted in
the diagram. Investigator #1 got a z-statistic of 1.9, which is plotted as the point (1, 1.9).
Investigator #2 got a z-statistic of 0.8, which is plotted as (2, 0.8), and so forth. Unknown
to the investigators, the null hypothesis is true.

(a) True or false, and explain: the z-statistic is positive when the average of the draws is
more than 50.

(b) How many investigators should get a positive z-statistic?

(c) How many of them should get a z-statistic bigger than 2? How many of them actually
do?

(d) If z = 2, what is P ?

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