CARIBBEAN ADVANCED PROFICIENCY EXAMINATION, 2016

INTEGRATED MATHEMATICS

General Topic: Statistics

Candidate Name: Nayasha Baksh

Candidate Number:

School: The Bishops’ High School

School Code: 090007

Year of Exam: 2016

Territory: Guyana

Teacher: Mr. Wilburg

 TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

Acknowledgements………………………………………………………………………. 3

Project title……………………………………………………………………………….. 4

Introduction………………………………………………………………………………. 5

Methodology……………………………………………………………………………… 6

Presentation of findings…………………………………………………………………… 7

Analysis of data…………………………………………………………………………... 11

Recommendations………………………………………………………………………… 17

Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………… 18

Bibliography………………………………………………………………………………. 19

2
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The researcher would like to thank her teacher for her guidance during the course of this
Internal Assessment. She would also like to express her gratitude to her parents who had
supported her.

3
 PROJECT TITLE

To determine whether the colours of M&Ms are evenly distributed

4
 INTRODUCTION

Probability deals with the chance of something happening. Probability is an important topic
in mathematics because the probability of certain events happening - or not happening - can
be important to us in the real world. Probability determines when the rain will fall, helps to
make decisions in sports and risk assessment, and helps governments make decisions in
environmental regulation etc. The use of M&M’s is to substitute for the examples listed
above to examine probability considering they are used in everyday life and are therefore
readily accessible. A typical packet of M&Ms consist of various colours and because of this,
they can be used for investigating probability.

Standard deviation is the measure of how spread out numbers are. This experiment aims to:

1. Determine whether the portions of each colour in each packet of M&M’s are even and if
not, by how far “off” they are, thus the reason for using standard deviation.

2. Determine the probability of picking a blue M&M

The researcher chose this topic because she is aware of the importance of probability in the
real world and carrying out research on the topic would make her more knowledgeable about
how to apply it to real-life situations.

The research method employed was experimental since the researcher decided this method is
appropriate for conducting research with quantitative data. It can also be said that the
quantitative method was used because quantitative data was collected. She used the
observation technique where she poured the M&Ms out of each packet into 3 separate bowls.
She recorded the portions of each colour in each packet of M&M’s.

5
 METHODOLOGY

The experimental research method was used in order to test the particular hypothesis by
recording and manipulating the variables. The dependent variable is the standard deviation of
the colour distribution while the independent variables are the 6 colours in the each of the
packets.

Each bag of M&M's is a sample from the larger population of all M&Ms. Therefore the
characteristics of the population form one set of limitations. The ratios of the colours limit the
ratio of M&M colours found in the samples. Another limitation is that it is possible that one
or some of the packets purchased were manufactured at different times under different
manufacturing standards which could introduce more variability in the samples.

Random sampling was used to select the packets of M&Ms for use in the project. This was
done by purchasing each of the 3 packets from 3 different stores in order to ensure the
samples from the target population of M&Ms had a fair chance of being chosen.

The instrument used was an observation because the researcher decided this was the most
suitable method to collect data. This instrument was chosen over questionnaires, interviews,
case studies and scales because these instruments are not appropriate for collecting relevant
data for the type of research. The observation technique enabled the researcher to count the
M&Ms and record the number of M&Ms by their colours.

Three bowls and three packets of M&Ms were used. One packet of M&M’s was open and the
number of each colour was counted and recorded. This step was repeated for the other two
bags of M&M’s. A ratio of each colour to the total number in the cup was made. The total
number of each colour was calculated and recorded. A ratio of each colour to the total
number of M&M’s was calculated and recorded. All observations were recorded in a table.
These observations were in turn used to create graphs. The tables and graphs were created
and saved on the researcher’s computer. The data cannot be easily lost because the researcher
saved a back-up copy to her flash drive.

6
 PRESENTATION OF DATA

Colour Bowl 1 Bowl 2 Bowl 3 Total

Blue 8 4 3 15
Brown 3 9 8 20
Orange 5 4 6 15
Yellow 4 4 7 15
Green 6 4 6 16
Red 5 6 1 12
Total 31 31 31 93

The table above shows the results after the M&Ms were counted

Bowl Blue Brown Orange Yellow Green Red

Bowl 1 8/31 3/31 5/31 4/31 6/31 5/31
Bowl 2 4/31 9/31 4/31 4/31 4/31 6/31
Bowl 3 3/31 8/31 6/31 7/31 6/31 1/31
Total 15/93 20/93 15/93 15/93 16/93 12/93
Percent Probability 16.10% 21.50% 16.10% 16.10% 17.20% 13%

The table above shows the probability of each colour in each bowl

Theoretical Probability
Bowl 1, 2 and 3
31/6 = 5.16 ≈ 5/ 31

Total
93/6= 15.5 ≈ 16/93

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 Histogram showing the distribution of the
number of each colour of M&Ms in Bowl
1
10
9
8 Blue
7
Brown
6
Orange
5
4 Yellow
3 Green
2 Red
1
0
Bowl 1

The histogram above shows the distribution of the various colours of M&Ms in Bowl 1. There
were 8 blue, 3 brown, 5 orange, 4 yellow, 6 green and 5 red M&Ms counted.

8
 Bar Graph showing the distribution of
the number of each colour of M&Ms in
Bowl 2
10
9
8
7 Blue

6 Brown

5 Orange
4 Yellow
3 Green
2 Red
1
0
Blue Brown Orange Yellow Green Red

The above bar graph shows the distribution of the bumber of each colour of M&Ms in Bowl 2.
There were 4 blue, 9 brown, 4 orange, 4 yellow, 4 green and 6 red M&Ms counted.

9
 Bar Graph showing the distribution of the
number of each colour of M&Ms in Bowl 3
9

7
Blue
6
Brown
5 Orange
4 Yellow
Green
3
Red
2

0
Blue Brown Orange Yellow Green Red

The bar graph above shows the distribution of the number of each colour of M&Ms in Bowl 3. There were
3 blue, 8 brown, 6 orange, 7 yellow, 6 green and 1 red M&Ms counted.

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 ANALYSIS OF DATA

The theoretical probability of an event is the number of ways that the event can occur,
divided by the total number of outcomes. Thus the researcher used this formula to calculate
the theoretical probability. The theoretical probability was calculated using the formula
below:

Theoretical Probability = Number of ways an event can occur

Total number of outcomes

=Number of M&Ms in each packet

Total number of colours

= 31

= 5.16

≈5

31

The researcher used this method to determine how much of each colour would be present in
the pack if the colours were evenly distributed. The theoretical probability showed that for
each packet, there should be 5 M&Ms of each colour in each packet. However this was not
the case. As shown in Table 2, none of the colours were near the theoretical probability. The
overall theoretical probability for all three of the packets is 16 of each colour in total. The
probability of each of the colours was found to be as follows:

Total Blue 15/93 Brown 20/93 Orange 15/93 Yellow 15/93 Green 16/93 Red 12/93

The above data was found using the following formula:

Total number of each colour of M&Ms in the 3 bowls

Total number of M&Ms in the 3 bowls

Since none of the colours were exactly theoretical, standard deviation can be used to
determine how ‘far off’ the colour distribution was for each packet. The standard deviation
would not be equal to zero once the distribution is uneven. The standard deviation was
calculated by finding the square root of the variance. The formula for variance is below:

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Mean: x = ∑ x

Bowl 1 : 8+3+5+4+6+5

= 31

= 31

= 5.16

≈ 5.2

Table showing Variance of the colour distribution in Bowl 1

Colour xi xi - x (xi - x)2

Blue 8 2.8 7.84
Brown 3 -2.2 4.84
Orange 5 -0.2 0.04
Yellow 4 -1.2 1.44
Green 6 0.8 0.64
Red 5 -0.2 0.04
∑14.84
Variance:

S2 = 14.84

= 2.9

≈3

Standard Deviation:

S=

= √14.84
12
 6-1

= √14.84

=√2.9

=1.7

Mean: x = ∑ x

Bowl 2: 4+9+4+4+4+6

= 31

= 31

= 5.16

≈ 5.2

Table showing the variance of the colour distribution in Bowl 2

Colour xi xi - x (xi - x)2

Blue 4 -1.2 1.44
Brown 9 -3.8 14.44
Orange 4 1.2 1.44
Yellow 4 1.2 1.44
Green 4 1.2 1.44
Red 6 0.8 0.64
∑20.84
Variance:

S2 = 20.84

= 4.2

Standard Deviation:

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S=

=√20.84

6-1

= √20.84

= √4.16

= 2.03

≈2

Mean: x = ∑ x

Bowl 3: 3+8+6+7+6+1

= 31

= 31

= 5.16

≈ 5.2

Table showing the variance of the colour distribution in Bowl 3

Colour xi xi - x (xi - x)2

Blue 3 -2.2 4.84
Brown 8 2.8 7.84
Orange 6 0.8 0.64
Yellow 7 1.8 3.24
Green 6 0.8 0.64
Red 1 -4.2 17.64
∑34.84
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Variance:

S2= 34.84

= 6.9

Standard Deviation:

S=

= √6.9

6-1

= √6.9

= √1.38

= 1.17

≈ 1.2

Mean of blue M&Ms in all three bowls= 8+4+3

= 15

= 15

=5

Table showing the variance of the distribution of blue M&Ms in all 3 bowls

xi xi - x (xi - x)2
15
 8 3 9
3 -2 4
4 -1 1
∑14

Variance:

S2 = 14

=7

Standard Deviation:

S=

= √7

3-1

= √7

= √3.5

= 1.87

≈ 1.9

Sample size for each bowl = 31

Standard Deviation of Bowl 1: 1.7

Standard Deviation of Bowl 2: 2

Standard Deviation of Bowl 3: 1.2

Standard Deviation of blue M&Ms in all 3 bowls: 1.9

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 RECOMMENDATIONS

The recommendations are as follows:

1. For the purposes of this research, the researcher used a small sample. However in
order to gain more accurate information about the spread of the colour distribution in
a packet of M&Ms, a larger sample size could be used.
2. The manufacturer could carry out surveys about the most preferred colour(s) in the
packet and balance the proportion of colours based on consumer preferences gathered
from the surveys.
3. In order to maintain consistency within the colour distribution, it is recommended that
the manufacturer regularly check machinery because machines are prone to
malfunction.

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 CONCLUSION

Mathematical concepts, skills and procedures were successfully used in determining the
standard deviation of the colour distribution of M&Ms in a regular size packet and also the
probability of picking a blue M&M from the sample. The experiment was practical and data
gathered from the experiment was represented through the use of graphs and tables which
aided the researcher in analyzing the data. The probability of picking a blue M&M from the
sample of 93 M&Ms was successfully determined to be 15/93. The sample size of each bowl
was 31 M&Ms. The standard deviation of the colour distribution in bowl 1 was 1.7. For bowl
2, the standard deviation of the colour distribution was 2 and for bowl 3, the standard
deviation was 1.2. Thus it can be seen that the ‘spread’ of the colour distribution in the bowls
were not very far apart. In addition the standard deviation of blue M&Ms in all 3 bowls was
1.9 hence the ‘spread’ of blue M&Ms in the bowls were not very off either but like the other
colours, they are not evenly distributed.

The M&M website has stopped posting the proportions of colours found in a bag of M&Ms
however as of 2008, the company uploaded to its website, the colour distribution of a regular
size packet of peanut M&Ms like the ones used in the experiment as follows: 23% cyan blue,
23% orange, 15% green, 15% bright yellow, 12% red, 12% brown. It would be illogical to
make conclusions based off of these percentages because consumer preferences could have
changed over the years and so the company would have to change the colour assortment.
Each large production batch is blended to those ratios and mixed thoroughly. Individual
packages are filled according to weight on high-speed equipment, and not by count, hence it
is possible to have an unusual color distribution.

The aims were achieved however the sample of only 3 packets of M&Ms was small. The
sample of 3 packets of M&Ms was used because of simple research purposes. In order to get
more accurate information about the colour assortment of M&Ms, one would have to carry
out this experiment using many more packets.

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 BIBLIOGRAPHY

Ross, S.R. (2010). Introductory Statistics. Oxford, UK: Academic Press.

The M&Ms website no longer posts the proportions of colors found in bags of M&Ms. (n.d.).
In Exeter.edu. Retrieved April 15, 2016 from https://www.exeter.edu/documents/mandm.pdf

Understanding Probability. (n.d.). In World.mathigon. Retreived March 3, 2016 from

http://world.mathigon.org/Probability

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