Subgroup discovery

  We are not seeking a global model but rather

“interesting subgroups”
  Identification of these groups can
–  Provide better understanding of domain
–  Allow for targeted action

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Requirements for subgroups Algorithms

  Shows deviating behavior of response variable   CN2-SD

compared to the whole population   Data Surveyor
–  E.g. high mean value of response variable   PRIM
  But as large as possible   …
  Simple description of group
–  Usually conjunctions of conditions

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Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) Illustration of PRIM with binary response

Procedure FindSubgroup Adverse outcome

  Begin with a box B that covers all the data

  Iterate
o  Remove the sub-box b of B that results in the
highest mean in B − b of the response variable
o  B  B − b
  Stopping rule: The support within the current box falls
below the threshold value
  If more subgroups are required:
–  Remove instances in last subgroup found
–  Repeat Procedure FindSubgroup
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 Remove observations and repeat Mean versus support trajectory

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Preventing overfitting

  When deciding on narrowing a box we look at

observations in the current box from a kept aside
“inspection” dataset. If performance does not
increase we stop.
  For validation we still need a yet separate test
Case study
dataset to assess the performance. Subgroups at high risk of hyperglycemia

Developmental set Inspection Test set

Nannings B, Abu-Hanna A, Bosman. Int J Medical Informatics. 2007.

Training set

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Glucose Management Approach

  For each glucose measurement use its “history”

  IC patients receive insulin to regulate their blood as attribute
glucose levels   Use PRIM to discover subgroups
  Clinicians follow new guidelines   Perform sensitivity analysis over time
  Yet some patients run the risk of hyper and
hypoglycemia
  Who are these patients?

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Results: Rule1 Rule2

  Mean Body Temperature < 35.5 ºC last 6h   Bicarbonate < 20.5 mmol/l last 6h
  Bicarbonate < 14.9 mmol/l in last 6h   Admission type = medical
 Mean Glucose = 12.5 mmol/l   Urine < 2 l OR Urine > 4 l
  21.5 < Albumin < 38.5 g/l last 24h
  Mean Body Temperature < 36.85 ºC last 6h
 Mean Glucose = 9.1 mmol/l

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Sensitivity Analysis Mean within subgroup over time

If we allow for (historical) glucose as prognostic factor

Previous glucose > 13.2 mmol

 
Bicarbonate < 26 mmol/l last 6h
  Mean in whole sample

 Glucose = 15.1 mmol/l

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Summary

  Subgroup discovery seeks interesting subgroups,

not global models.
  PRIM is a popular subgroup discovery algorithm
–  Provides easily understandable group
descriptions using conjunctions
–  Finds groups with high value of the response
variable
–  Supports interaction with the user

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