Probability

Notes
 Probability
Probability: how likely something is going to happen.
The closer to 100%, the more likely
The closer to 0% the less likely

You can describe probability using a scale:

Certain: When an event will always happen (100%)

Likely: When an event has a good chance of happening (more than 50%)
Equally likely/unlikely: When there is a 50% chance.
Unlikely: When an event does not have a good chance of happening (less
than 50%)
Impossible: When an event will never happen (0%)
 Practice
Example: How likely is it that it will snow tomorrow?
Unlikely

How likely is it that tomorrow will be Monday?

Impossible

How likely is it that you will learn math tomorrow?

Very likely

How likely is it that tomorrow will be Friday?

Certain
 Example:

The probability that each of the five teams will win a soccer
competition is listed below:

Team A – 1/6
Team B – 1/8
Team C – 1/2
Team D – 1/24
Team E – 1/3

Which team is most likely to win?

Which is team least likely to win?

 Instead of just describing probability, we can also
calculate probability

Probability: The ratio of favorable outcomes to

possible outcomes.

(Can be written as a percent, fraction, or decimal between 0 and 1)

Outcome: One of the possible results of an event

P(Event) = Number of Favorable Outcomes

Total Number of Possible Outcomes
 Practice

In a class of 14 girls and 16 boys, what is the probability that a

girl will be chosen at random to be the Section Sheet holder?

P(girl) = . # of girls .
Total number of students

P(girl) = 14
30

P(girl) = 7/15, 0.47, or 46.67%

The probability of choosing a girl is approximately 47%

 Practice

When playing trashketball, Ms. Logan rolls the dice in
order to choose a team. What is the probability that
your team number is chosen?

Probability: 1/5 or 20%

 Practice
Directions: Calculate the probability for each. Write your answer
as a fraction. Advanced: also convert to a percent.

1.  The probability of randomly picking a purple marble in a jar

of 10 green and 10 purple marbles.

2.  The probability of rolling a number 5 on a 6-sided cube?

3.  The probability of the beginner table being chosen randomly

in trashketball?

4.  The probability of rolling a 7 on a 6-sided cube?

Since all probabilities add to 1 (or 100%), you can calculate the
probability of an event, given the probability of other events, by
subtracting the other probabilities from 1 (or 100%)

Example: A Dunkin’ Donuts employee randomly filled a box of

munchkins with chocolate, glazed, powdered, and sprinkled
munchkins. If the probability for randomly selecting a chocolate
munchkin is 3/8, glazed is ¼, and powdered is 1/8, what is the
chance of selecting a sprinkled munchkin?

P(sprinkled) = 1 – (3/8 + ¼ + 1/8)

P(sprinkled) = 1 – (3/4)
P(sprinkled) = ¼, 0.25, or 25%

The probability of choosing a sprinkled donut is 25%

If you know the probability of an event, you can approximate
how many times it will occur by multiplying the probability by
the total number of chances.

Ex: If the probability of choosing a sprinkled donut is 25%, and

Mary randomly chooses 12 munchkins, how many of them will
be sprinkled?

0.25 * 12 = 3

3 munchkins will be sprinkled

 You can calculate the probability of more than one favorable
event. Just add all of the total favorable possibilities.

Ex: When rolling a 6 sided cube, what is the chance of it landing

on an even number?

P(even) = . Total number of even possibilities.

Total number of possibilities

P(even) = 3
6
P(even) = 3/6, ½, 0.5, or 50%

The probability of rolling an even number is 50%

 Practice
Directions: Calculate the probability for each. Write your answer
as a fraction. Advanced: also convert to a percent.

1.  The probability of randomly picking a red or green marble

in a jar of 8 green, 12 red, and 10 blue marbles.
2.  The probability of rolling an odd number on a 6-sided
cube?
3.  The probability of an advanced table being chosen
randomly in trashketball?
4.  The probability of rolling a number greater than 2 on a 6-
sided cube?
5.  The probability of rolling an even number or a 1 on a 6-
sided cube?
 Extra Practice: Calculating Probability of Simple Events
What is the probability that when rolling a 6-sided dice it
will:

1.  Land on an odd number? 3/6 or ½ or 50%

2.  Land on a number less than 10? 6/6 or 100%
3.  Land on a number other than 4? 5/6 or 83.3%
4.  Land on 9? 0/6 or 0%
5.  Land on a number greater than or equal to 3? 4/6 or 66.7%
6.  Land on a multiple of 2? 3/6 or ½ or 50%
7.  Land on a factor of 12? 5/6 or 83.3%