UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, JAMAICA

FACULTY OF SCIENCE AND SPORT

SCHOOL OF MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS

FINAL EXAMINATION, SEMESTER 2
________________________________________________________________________

Module Name : Probability and Statistics

Module Code : STA2002

Date : March 2010

Theory/ Practical : Theory

Group : BENG 2 (Chemical)

Duration : 2 Hours

________________________________________________________________________

INSTRUCTIONS

1. Answer ANY FOUR(4) questions.

2. This examination paper consists of SIX (6) questions and three (3)
printed pages.

3. Please begin the answer for each question on a new page.

3. Mathematical instruments and silent electronic calculators may be used

for this paper.

DO NOT TURN THIS PAGE UNTIL YOU ARE TOLD TO DO SO

1
QUESTION NO.1

(a) A large group of people is to be tested for two compounds in their urine. It is
thought that 20% of the people possess compound A alone, 30% possess
compound B alone, 10% possess both compounds, and the remanding have
neither compound. For one person chosen at random from this group, find these
probabilities:

(i) that the person has at least one compound.

(ii) that the person has neither compound.

(iii) that the person has both compounds, given that he has compound B.
[2+1+3marks]

(b) If A and B are independent events, show that A and B are also independent.
[3marks]

(c) At a machine center there are three automatic screw machines. Machine A, B, C
manufacture 35%, 40%, and 25% of the total output respectively. Of their outputs
4%, 2%, and 5% respectively, are defective screws.

(i) If a screw is randomly picked from inventory, what is the probability that
it will be defective?

(ii) If a screw is picked and found to be defective, what is the probability that
it was produced by machine C?
[4+2 marks]

QUESTION NO.2

(a) The continuous random variable X, has probability density function

kxe3 x 0 x
f ( x)  
 0 elsewhere

(i) Find the value of k.

(ii) Find E(X). [3+4 marks]

(b) The discrete random variable X is binomially distributed with p.d.f given by

n
P( X  x)    p x (1  p) n x for x = 0, 1, 2, … , n.
 x
Show that

(i) E(X) = np,

(ii) V(X) = np( 1 – p ) [3+ 5 marks]

GO ON TO NEXT PAGE

2
QUESTION NO.3

(a) A study investigating the marks (x) obtained in a Semester 1 Chemistry

examination and the marks (y) obtained in the following Semester 2 examination
by a group of nine students was carried out by a university. It is given that
 x  567,  y  552,  xy  36261,  x 2
 37777,  y 2  36112.

(i) Find, by calculation, the equation of the regression line of Y on X.

(ii) Tenth student obtained a mark of 60 in the Semester1 examination but was
absent from the Semester 2 examination. Estimate the mark that this
student would have obtained in the Semester 2 examination.
(iii) Find, the coefficient of determination, r2, and interpret your answer.
[3+1+3marks]

(b) Calculate the 95% confidence interval of the mean for nitrate ion concentration
given that the sample mean is 0.60 gml-1 , the standard deviation 0.0175 gml-1 and
the sample size is 50. [3 marks]

(c) An advertising consulting states that 25% of the compound produced by a

machine are impure. In order to test this assertion, a random sample of 150
compounds were taken and 34 were found to be impure. Test whether these
results provide significant evidence, at the 5% level, that the consultant was
incorrect. State clearly your null and alternative hypotheses.
[5marks]

QUESTION NO.4

(a) Find the cumulative distribution function for

 x  x2
2

 e 2t , t  0, x  0
f ( x)   t 2 .
 0,
 otherwise
[5 marks]
(b) A continuous random variable X having probability density function

( x   )2
1 
f ( x)  e 2 for   x  
2

2
is normally distributed with mean  and variance  2 .

Show that


(i) 

f ( x) dx  1
’

(ii ) E ( X )  .
[4+6 marks]

GO ON TO NEXT PAGE

3
QUESTION NO.5

(a) In a comparison of two methods for the determination of potassium in rye gas,
the following results (mgkg-1 K) were obtained:

Method 1: mean = 1.48; standard deviation 0.28

Method 2: mean = 2.33; standard deviation 0.31

For each method five determinations were made.

Do these methods give results having means which differ significantly at the 0 05
level of of significance?
[6 marks]

(b) Write down a multiple regression equation with two independent variables and
explain the meaning of all the terms in the equation.
[5 marks]

(c) The quality control engineer at Bethel Steel is interested in estimating the tensile
strength of steel wire based on its outside diameter and the amount of iron in
the steel . As an experiment , she selected thirty-five pieces of wire , measured the
outside diameters ,and determined the iron content . Then she measured the
tensile strength of each piece . The results of the first four were :

Pieces Tensile Outside Amount

Strength(psi) Diameter(cm), Iron(units)
Y X1 X2
A 11 .03 6
B 9 .02 5
C 16 .04 8
D 12 .03 7

Suppose the multiple regression equation is Y1 = -0.5 + 20X1 + 1X2 .

(i) Based on the equation , what is the predicted tensile strength of a steel wire
having an outside diameter of 0.35 cm and 6.4 units of iron ?
(ii) Interpret the value of b1 in the equation . [3+1marks]

QUESTION NO.6

(a) The random variable X is such that X ~ Po(  ). Show that the moment generating
function of X is e ( e 1) . Hence, obtain the mean and variance of X.
t

[8 marks]
(b) The random variable Y is independent of X, and Y~ Po(  ) . Given that T = X+Y,
Find the moment generating function of T. Hence identify the distribution of T.
[4 marks]
(c) A chemist dissolves sodium ions and nitrate ions in a volume of water. The
average concentration of the sodium ions is 0.20 per milliliter(ml) and that of the
nitrate ions is 0.05 per milliliter(ml). The random variables X and Y denote the
concentration of sodium ions and nitrate ions, respectively, contained in a
randomly selected 1 millimeter (1ml) volume of water . Assume that X and Y
follow the Poisson distribution. Determine, correct to three decimal places,
P(X +Y = 0).
[3 marks]

END OF PAPER

4
 USEFUL FORMULAE

The product moment coefficient of correlation

n XY   X  Y
r
 n X 2   X 2   n Y 2   Y 2 
       

Least squares regression line, Y  a  bX ,

n XY    X   Y   Y  b   X 
b a  n 
n X 2    X 
2
n  
Confidence interval

s
xz
n

Test statistic
p p
Z cal 
p(1  p)
n

(n1  1)( s1 )  (n2  1)( s 2 )

2 2

sp 
2
Pooled variance
n1  n2  2

X1  X 2
Two- Sample Test of Means t
2 1 1
s p   
 n1 n2 
13. PROBABILITY

(a) P( AUB)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B) (Non - mutually exclusive events)

(b) P( AUB)  P( A)  P( B) (Mutually exclusive events)
(c ) P( AUBUC)  P( A)  P( B)  P(C )  P( A  B)  P( B  C )  P( A  C )  P( A  B  C )
P( A  B)
(d) P( A / B)  ( Conditional events)
P( B)
P( A  B)
(e) P( B / A) 
P( A)
(f) P( A and B)  P( A)  P( B) (Independent events)
(g) P( A)  1  P( A)
Bayes’ Theorem
P( A / Bi ) p( Bi )
(h) P( Bi / A) 
P( A / B1 ) P( B1 )  P( A / B2 ) P( B2 )   P( A / Bk ) P( Bk )