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Instructions: Change any of the forecasting variables shown in red below and observe the effect on the model's outputs in
the section below. To what variable is the business value conclusion most sensitive? To what variable is it least sensitive?
Forecasting Variables:
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Revenue growth factor 80% 65% 55% 50% 40% 35% 29% 28% 27% 25%
Expected gross profit margin 98% 96% 96% 94% 93% 93% 92% 92% 91% 89%
S, G, & A expense % of revenue 30% 35% 30% 28% 25% 23% 20% 18% 20% 20%
Depr. & Amort. % of revenue 2% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 5%
Capital expenditure growth factor 5% 5% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7%
Net working capital to sales ratio 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Valuation Model Outputs:
Gross profit margin 98% 96% 96% 94% 93% 93% 92% 92% 91% 89%
Net operating profit margin 66% 59% 64% 63% 65% 67% 68% 70% 67% 64%
Free cash flow ($ mil) $0.40 $0.57 $0.9 $1.4 $1.9 $2.66 $3.49 $4.57 $5.56 $6.74
Terminal value ($ mil) $38.8
Total revenue $274,601 $494,282 $815,565 $1,264,126 $1,896,189 $2,654,664 $3,583,797 $4,623,098 $5,917,566 $7,515,308 $9,394,136
Cost of Goods Sold 5,492 9,886 32,623 50,565 113,771 185,827 250,866 369,848 473,405 676,378 1,033,355
Gross profit 269,109 484,396 782,942 1,213,561 1,782,418 2,468,837 3,332,931 4,253,250 5,444,161 6,838,930 8,360,781
Selling, general and administrative expenses 54,920 148,285 285,448 379,238 530,933 663,666 824,273 924,620 1,065,162 1,503,062 1,878,827
Earnings before interest, taxes, depr. & amort. (EBITDA) 214,189 336,111 497,494 834,323 1,251,485 1,805,171 2,508,658 3,328,630 4,378,999 5,335,868 6,481,954
Depreciation and amortization 5,492 9,886 16,311 25,283 56,886 79,640 107,514 184,924 236,703 300,612 469,707
Earnings before Interest and taxes (EBIT) 208,697 326,225 481,183 809,040 1,194,599 1,725,531 2,401,144 3,143,706 4,142,296 5,035,256 6,012,247
Available tax-loss carryforwards 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Net taxable earnings 208,697 326,225 481,183 809,040 1,194,599 1,725,531 2,401,144 3,143,706 4,142,296 5,035,256 6,012,247
Add back depreciation and amortization 5,492 9,886 16,311 25,283 56,886 79,640 107,514 184,924 236,703 300,612 469,707
Subtract Capital Expenditures 40,000 42,000 44,100 46,305 48,620 51,537 54,630 57,907 61,961 66,298 70,939
Subtract New Net Working Capital 21,968 32,128 44,856 63,206 75,848 92,913 103,930 129,447 159,774 187,883
Free Cash Flow $254,189 $400,079 $573,722 $925,484 $1,363,311 $1,932,556 $2,656,201 $3,490,468 $4,570,406 $5,561,941 $6,740,775
Present Value of Free Cash Flows @ Discount Rate 296,355 314,800 376,156 410,450 430,986 438,792 427,117 414,271 373,441 335,253
Loan Size
USD
5000000 1538 14531.52
5900000 681
6962000 803
8215160 948
9693889 1119
11438789 1320
13497771 1557
15927370 1838
18794296 2169
22177269 2559
500000
100%
25000
50000
2000
1000000