Gladiator Stocks

MOMENTUM PICK
New recommendations Time Frame: 6 Months
Open Recommendations
Date Scrip I-Direct Code Buying Range Target Stoploss Upside (%)
1-Mar-18 Blue Star BLUSTA 730.00-760.00 875.00 675.00 17.0 Stock on the Move
1-Mar-18 JC-Hitachi Air Conditioning India HITHOM 2260.00-2330.00 2690.00 2,095.00 17.0
Scrip Action
Mahindra CIE Buy

Open recommendations Time Frame: 6 Months Duration: 3 Months

Date Scrip Avg Rec Price Target Stoploss CMP Return till date (%)
4-Jan-18 Titan 865.00 1048.00 768.00 817.00 -5.5 Click here to know more…
5-Jan-18 Zee TV 576.00 698.00 522.00 568.00 -1.4
9-Jan-18 Reliance Industries 935.00 1070.00 865.00 950.00 1.6
23-Jan-18 VST Industries 3105.00 3840.00 2770.00 3,180.00 2.4
Momentum Picks

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

29-Jan-18 Maruti 9610.00 10795.00 8645.00 8,835.00 -8.1
14-Feb-18 Tata Motors 375.00 422.00 347.00 374.00 -0.3 Scrip Action
23-Feb-18 Merck 1485.00 1750.00 1370.00 1,590.00 7.1 Ipca Labs Buy

All the recommendations are in Cash segment Prism Cement Buy

NCC Buy
Duration: 1 month

Click here to know more…

March 1, 2018

Research Analysts
Dharmesh Shah Nitin Kunte, CMT Ninad Tamhanekar, CMT
dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com nitin.kunte@icicisecurities.com ninad.tamhanekar@icicisecurities.com

Pabitro Mukherjee Vinayak Parmar

pabitro.mukherjee@icicisecurities.com vinayak.parmar@icicisecurities.com
Consumer Durable Thematic: Warming up for summers

• The best known indicator of seasonal progression is outdoor temperature. As the summer of
2018 is just around the corner, we take a look at the price charts of some air conditioner stocks,

PICK
which appear to be warming up for a rally ahead of the summers when the demand for air

STOCKS
conditioners (AC) really starts picking up. Seasonality is defined as a pattern that occurs at given
times within the calendar year. The reason we like to look at seasonality is because technical

MOMENTUM
analysis is based on the premise that price patterns repeat themselves. Seasonality is rooted in

GLADIATOR
this very same concept

• The early onset of summer, launch of new products (like inverter window AC) and various rural
centric benefits in the Union Budget, would be a booster for the Indian air conditioner market in
the long run. The May-July period (strong summer) is considered to be the strongest one for
sales of AC and contributes ~30% to overall annual sales. The pick-up in demand (due to strong
summer ahead) and upward revision of unit prices (due to a change in energy norms) would help
drive topline and margins of air conditioner manufacturing companies, going forward. This will
also be supported by rising aspiration level of middle class and availability of power in rural areas

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research
March 1, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 2
 Blue Star (BLUSTA) – Base formation at major support level…

Technical Outlook Weekly Bar Chart Strategy Buy

• Blue Star is India's leading air conditioning & commercial Buying range 730-760

PICK
STOCKS
refrigeration company. The Blue Star share price has stayed 123.6% external Target 875
in a secular uptrend since CY14 as it continues to form a retracement @ 875
Stoploss 675

MOMENTUM
higher peak and higher trough in all time frames. Within this The stock is forming base at the major 838
structural uptrend, the stock has undergone periodic phases support area thus provides favourable risk- Potential upside 17%

GLADIATOR
of consolidation providing fresh entry opportunities for reward set up for fresh entry opportunity
investors to ride the uptrend. In the present scenario, we Time Frame 6 Months
believe the stock has undergone a healthy corrective phase in
the last two months and is currently attractively placed near
key value area of | 700-750. Thus, this provides a fresh entry
opportunity to ride the next up move Stock Data
677
Market Capitalisation (| Cr.) 7214
• In the last four weeks, the stock has been witnessing a base
formation around the major support area of | 700-750 as it is Face Value (|) 2
the confluence of the following technical parameters: 576 52 Week High / Low 838/541
a) The lower band of the rising channel containing the entire 577
price activity since CY17 is placed at | 720 levels The stock forming base 50/200 day EMA 768/724
b) 61.8% retracement of the previous up move (| 577-838) at the major support 3m Avg volume 12 lacs

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

c) The long term rising 52 weeks EMA, which has acted as a area of 700-750:
strong support for the stock since CY’14 is also placed at | 701 - Lower band of MF Holding(%) 20.78
Based on the above technical observation we believe the risk- channel FII Holding(%) 7.75
reward remains favourable and offers fresh entry opportunity - 61.8% retracement
of previous up move
• Time wise, the stock has already taken four months to retrace - 52 weeks EMA
439
just 61.8% of the previous four months up move (| 577 to 52 weeks
826). Shallow price wise correction and elongated time wise Price performance last five years
EMA
consolidation highlights the robust price structure 160
Weekly RSI is rebounding from a trendline support of its
• Among oscillators, the weekly 14 period’s RSI is sustaining 109
own thus validates bullish bias in the stock
above the bull market support reading of 40. It has recently 72

% Change
rebounded taking support at a trend line of its own joining its 60
previous lows. Thus, this validates the positive bias in the
19 21
stock in the medium term -12

• Considering the robust price structure and above-mentioned 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-40
technical observations we expect the stock to continue its Year
current uptrend and head towards | 875 in the medium term
being the 123.6% external retracement of the entire previous
decline (| 838-677) placed at | 875 levels

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

March 1, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 3
 Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India (HITHOM) – Base formation
near lower band of upward sloping channel, augurs well for next leg of up
move…

Technical Outlook Weekly Bar Chart Strategy Buy

• Johnson Controls Hitachi – Air Conditioning manufactures a Buying range 2260-2330

PICK
STOCKS
wide range of products, from room air-conditioners (split &
Swing high Target 2690
window ACs) to commercial air-conditioners including chiller,
Elongated time wise 2775 around 2700

MOMENTUM
ductable air-conditioners, telecom air conditioners & VRF Stoploss 2095
consolidation
system
Potential upside 17%

GLADIATOR
• The stock has been trading in a secular up trend forming Time Frame 6 Months
higher high - low formation, captured in a well defined
2308
upward sloping channel on the long term chart. Currently,
the stock has approached its key value area | 2150 and
formed higher high after four weeks correction, assisting Stock Data
momentum indicator to work off the overbought condition Market Capitalisation (| Cr.) 6281
2133
on stochastic oscillator. Thus, we believe the stock has
undergone a healthy corrective phase that have paved the Face Value (|) 10
way for next leg of up move towards | 2698. 52 Week High / Low 2775/1411

• The stock recorded an all-time high of | 2775 on October 1678 50/200 day EMA 2508/2225
2017 and since then consolidated for eighteen weeks. We 3m Avg volume 1.73 lacs
believe consolidation is approaching its maturity near key

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

The stock forming base
value area of | 2150, being the confluence of the following at the major support MF Holding(%) 10.63
evidences: area of 2150: FII Holding(%) 1.79
a) Currently poised at lower band of upward sloping channel - Channel support
encompassing the uptrend since November 16 low. - 80% retracement of
b) 80% retracement of last leg of up move of October 2017 (| previous up move
2001 – |2775) levels, placed at | 2156
Price performance last five years
c) Placement of 52 weeks average at | 2137 52 weeks
500
We believe the base formation near key value area offers fresh SMA 470
entry opportunity as risk-reward remains favourable 1144 400
Stochastic witnessed bullish crossover after finding support

% Change
300
• Last 18 weeks price action has been enclosed within long from Feb 2017 lows, indicating trend reversal
200
candle of mid October 2017 (| 2001 – |2775). A shallow price
correction with elongated time wise consolidation highlights 100
53
93
the strong price structure 0
5
1
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
• The current price action indicates conclusion of secondary Year
corrective phase, thus offering a fresh entry opportunity. We
expect, the stock to resolve higher and inch upward to test our
target area of | 2698 in the medium term being the swing high of
January 2018.

Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct.com Research

March 1, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 4
Follow up summary of Gladiator Stocks

MOMENTUM PICK
Summary Performance - Recommendations till date
Total Recommendations 333 Open 7
Closed Recommendations 327 Yield on Positive recommendations 19.0%
Positive Recommendations 248 Yield on Negative recommendations -8.0%
Closed at cost 7
Strike Rate 78%

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

March 1, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 5
 Stock on the Move open recommendations

Date Scrip Name Strategy Recommendation Price Target Stoploss Time Frame
27-Feb-18 Mahindra CIE Automotive Buy 233-238 270.00 216.00 3 Month

MOMENTUM PICK
All the recommendations are in Cash segment

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

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March 1, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 6

 Momentum Picks open recommendations

Date Stock Strategy Recommendation Price Target Stoploss Time Frame

14-Feb-18 NCC Buy 124.00-128.00 147.00 115.00 30 Days

MOMENTUM PICK
20-Feb-18 Prism Cement Buy 120.00-123.00 142.00 114.00 30 Days
26-Feb-18 Ipca Labs Buy 670.00-682.00 775.00 621.00 30 Days
All the recommendations are in Cash segment

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

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March 1, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 7

Price history of last three years of the short term
recommendations

Blue Star Limited Johnson Controls-Hitachi Air Conditioning India

MOMENTUM PICK
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
March 1, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 8
 Notes......

• It is recommended to enter in a staggered manner within the prescribed range provided in the report
• Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the

MOMENTUM PICK
report on closing basis
• The recommendations are valid for six months and in case we intend to carry forward the position, it
will be communicated through separate mail

Trading portfolio allocation

• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various
technical research products
• Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
• Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

• For example: The ‘Daily Calls’ product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to
allocate equal amount to each recommendation

March 1, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 9

 Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation

Allocations
Product Product wise Max allocation
Number of Calls Return Objective Duration

MOMENTUM PICK
allocation In 1 Stock

Momentum Picks- 10% 30-50% 2-3 Stocks 1-2% Intraday

Intraday
Momentum Picks- 25% 8-10% 6-8 Per Month 5-8% 1 Month
Positional
Stocks on the move 25% 12-15% 6-8 Per Month 10-12% 3 Months

Gladiator Stocks 35% 15-20% 20-30% 6 Months

Cash 5%

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

100%

March 1, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 10

 MOMENTUM PICK
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ICICIdirect.com Research Desk,

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

ICICI Securities Limited,

1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,

Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)

Mumbai – 400 093

research@icicidirect.com

March 1, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 11

 Disclaimer

We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Nitin Kunte, Ninad Tamhanekar, Pabitro Mukherjee, Vinayak Parmar Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our
views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

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The information and opinions in this section have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not
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The research recommendations are based on information obtained from public sources and sources believed to be reliable, but no independent verification has been made nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. These research recommendations
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ICICI Securities or its associates might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein during the period preceding twelve months from the date of these recommendations for services in respect of managing or co-managing
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ICICI Securities or its associates might have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the companies mentioned herein in the past twelve months.

ICICI Securities encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. ICICI Securities or its associates or its Analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the
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It is confirmed that Dharmesh Shah, Nitin Kunte, Ninad Tamhanekar, Pabitro Mukherjee and Vinayak Parmar, Research Analysts giving these recommendations have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned herein in the preceding
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Compensation of our Research Analysts is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions

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March 1, 2018 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 12