Syria chemical attack: the evidence

By Martin Williams-20 Apr 2018

What are the allegations?
President Assad’s government has been accused of launching a chemical weapons
attack on the Syrian town of Douma on 7 April, 2018.

Barrel bombs containing toxic substances were allegedly dropped from

helicopters, killing “up to 75 people”, with as many as 500 further casualties.
The British prime minister, Theresa May, has said the chemical “appears” to have
been chlorine.

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has suggested that a second chemical may have
also been used. “We are very much aware of one of the agents,” he said. “There
may have been more than one agent used. We are not clear on that yet.”
But Russia has claimed the attack was “staged” by Britain and anti-Assad rebels.

Videos from the scene

Detailed analysis of videos from the scene confirm that they were filmed in
Douma, near Damascus.

The Bellingcat website has set out how these films can be geolocated with
pinpoint precision. Because the tools they use for this are open source, it is
possible for us to check their work and we believe their findings are extremely
compelling.

For instance, one video purportedly shows a chemical gas canister in Douma.
Towards the end, the camera pans across the horizon and we can spot several
buildings that can be matched to satellite images.
The White Helmets

✔@SyriaCivilDef
Important: video from 9 April, 7:02pm showing presence of chemical gas canister
in Douma. Same location as video of casualties. Also same location that Russia
visited reporting ‘no sign of chemical weapons’.
14:06 - 10 Apr 2018
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Videos showing dead and injured people are far too graphic for us to include here,
although they are included in the Bellingcat report. They relate to one of at least
two separate locations which were reportedly hit with chemical weapons.

Again, we can compare elements in these videos with satellite images like the one
below.

It is impossible for us to fully verify when the videos and photos were actually
taken, but metadata confirms they were uploaded to the internet shortly after
the attack is reported to have happened.
What do the images show?

Let’s deal with the gas canister first. Without an independent analysis, we cannot
confirm what was in it, nor where it came from.

Based purely on the image, it looks like it has fallen from a height – but it is also
not inconceivable that it was placed in this position.

It also appears visually very similar to other alleged gas cylinders that were
purportedly dropped by the Syrian government in 2016. Photographs of these
have been compiled by Human Rights Watch here.
For instance, this first photo allegedly shows a yellow gas cylinder found in Aleppo
following a chlorine attack in 2016. The second photo is taken from the video
above, filmed in Douma.
As for the victims, it is also impossible for us to verify with 100 per cent certainty
exactly what the video shows, or what has caused their conditions. However,
organisations which support medics working in Syria have said the symptoms
displayed are consistent with exposure to toxic gas.

The World Health Organisation has explained: “There were signs of severe
irritation of mucous membranes, respiratory failure and disruption to central
nervous systems of those exposed.”

The graphic video evidence showing these symptoms is extensive, showing

dozens of bodies.

Who filmed the attack?

There is little doubt about where these videos were filmed, or what they appear
to show. But some commentators have raised concerns about the motives of
those who filmed it.

Before the chemical attack, Douma was one of the last remaining pockets of
Syria’s Eastern Ghouta region to still be held by rebels, who were facing the
prospect of defeat by advancing government forces. Reports said the city was
controlled by a rebel group called Jaysh al-Islam (Army of Islam), which is opposed
to both the Assad government and to ISIS.

Jaysh al-Islam is a hardline Islamist group. Reports in 2015 said that the group had
released a video showing its members shooting 18 ISIS fighters dead. And, in
2012, the group claimed responsibility for bombing the headquarters of Syria’s
National Security Bureau, killing several senior government officials.

The rebels’ hold of Douma poses two questions for us: does footage of the
chemical attack come from these rebels, who have a clear agenda? If so, does
that make a material difference to the evidence?

We cannot say with certainty whether the people who uploaded videos are the
same people who actually filmed it. For instance, some of the footage may have
circulated on WhatsApp before being posted online.

However, let’s look at a few of the main sources, who uploaded key footage
within hours of the suspected attack which has since been widely circulated.

Douma.Revolution

One of the first places to post graphic images was the Douma.Revolution
Facebook page. The initial uploads (a series of still photographs which appear to
show a room full of dead bodies) are from the same scene that we geolocated
before.

The Facebook page itself does not appear to specifically endorse the Jaysh al-
Islam rebel group itself. However, it is clear from the name that this is a very pro-
rebel page, rather than an impartial source.
Because of limited access to the region, this Facebook page has been one of the
main sources of news from Douma over the last couple of years. While it
obviously has a strong political agenda, we have no evidence that it is involved in
conducting hoaxes. Many of the posts simply document the deaths and injuries
inflicted on “martyrs” in rebel-held communities.

Fadi Abdullah

A YouTube account under the name ‫( هللا عبد فادي‬Fadi Abdullah) posted several of
the main videos, with extremely graphic footage of dead bodies. Again, they are
from the same location as before.
Some, but not all, of these videos bear the Douma.Revolution logo in the
corner. It is not clear whether this account has simply re-posted other people’s
videos, or whether Fadi Abdullah is affiliated with the Douma.Revolution
Facebook group in some way. However, we believe the latter is likely, based on
the fact he appears to be a cameraman and has been posting Douma.Revolution-
branded videos for years. His first YouTube video of the attack was uploaded just
hours after it reportedly took place.
He has previously posted several propaganda videos from the Liwa al-Islam rebel
group (such as this and this). Liwa al-Islam was another hardline Islamic rebel
group active in the area, which later mergedwith Jaysh al-Islam.

Another video, uploaded by Fadi Abdullah in 2012, shows a man stamping on

picture of President Assad.

Therefore, it is clear that this is a highly partisan account. But, as before, lots of
the videos posted on it are simply eyewitness footage, documenting death and
destruction in the Douma area.
The White Helmets

Much has been written about this group before, but here’s the basics:

Officially known as Syria Civil Defence, the volunteer rescue group are part-
funded by several western governments including Britain. Immediately following
the reported chemical attack in Douma, the White Helmet’s social media channels
were one of the main sources of videos and information – including crucial
footage of the yellow gas cylinder.
The group is regularly accused of everything from pumping out fake news
footage, to being terrorist fighters. They deny all the allegations.

In 2016, we investigated claims that the White Helmets used actors to fake video
footage that showed children being pulled out of rubble following airstrikes. It
was claimed that three girls pictured on different occasions were, in fact, the
same girl.

Our analysis concluded there was no evidence to support these claims. However,
not all of the claims and criticism about the White Helmets are unfounded.

The organisation “fired” one of its members after he was filmed handling
mutilated corpses, and helping armed militants to dispose of the dead bodies of
pro-Assad fighters. In a statement, the White Helmets claimed this was just one
rogue individual acting alone.
There is also video evidence of White Helmets “assisting” with a public execution,
by taking a man’s body away from the scene straight after he was shot dead.

And the group attracted criticism in 2016, when it staged a surreal videoof an
injured man being rescued from rubble as their version of the Mannequin
Challenge craze. The group said it was meant “to raise awareness of the suffering
of the Syrian people”.

They group later apologised, saying it was an “error of judgement”.

The White Helmet’s claims of neutrality are the subject of much debate. However,
whatever their stance, few doubt that they are considered a threat by Assad’s
regime.

To sum up, much of the original footage filmed at the scene in the immediate
hours after the attack appears to come from sources which may be partisan or
potentially compromised. But this is not surprising, given that the Douma was
held by rebels and was under attack. It would actually be far more surprising if the
footage was all filmed by independent journalists and experts.

Evidence from the hospital

Reports say that more than 500 patients were brought to nearby hospitals with
symptoms “indicative of exposure to a chemical agent”.

The Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS), which supports hospitals in rebel-
held areas, said: “Patients have shown signs of respiratory distress, central
cyanosis, excessive oral foaming, corneal burns, and the emission of chlorine-like
odor.”

Some of the doctors who treated these patients have since talked to
journalists. On the whole, their accounts are similar – describing symptoms
consistent with exposure to toxic chemicals.
For instance, one doctor described a patient to a BBC reporter, saying: “His pupils
were dilated and he had foam in his mouth. His heart was very slow. Then he
coughed blood into his mouth as well. I could see he was going to die.”

However, some medics have claimed that no patients had these symptoms, and
they were actually asphyxiated by dust and smoke.

There may well have been victims suffering from smoke and dust inhalation –
rather than exposure to chemicals. But that doesn’t mean all the patients were
the same.

Indeed, according to a Reuters report, some of doctors who made these claims
had been working in a different part of the hospital.

The news agency said: “A government-organised media tour did not include the
building where, according to rescue workers and medics who were in town at the
time, dozens of people were killed by poison gas.”

Reuters added: “Medical aid groups and the White Helmets rescue organisation
have said such statements – already aired on state television in recent days –
were made under duress.”
A Russian news channel has also made claims about a boy who it says
“participated in filming a fake video”. He and his father were quoted saying they
went to the hospital following a panic, and were then offered food by militants.

We cannot rule out the possibility that some people were brought to the hospital
under false pretences, or that some militants tried to exploit the situation. But we
have to set that against the rest of the evidence: dozens of dead bodies and
eyewitness accounts from victims and doctors.

The most important evidence that could come from local medical facilities are
blood, hair and urine samples – which have been used in previous investigations
to identify chemical weapons.

At the time of writing, however, the UN’s Organisation for the Prohibition of
Chemical Weapons (OPCW) has still not been able to get to the scene.

Their security detail, who went ahead, were shot at while touring the city. Now,
the UN says that key parties have met in Syria’s capital to discuss security
arrangements.

The helicopters

Western powers accusing Assad of carrying out the attack in Douma also point to
helicopter sightings over the city.

The UK has said: “Open source accounts allege a barrel bomb was used to deliver
the chemicals, and a regime helicopter was seen above Douma on the evening of
7 April. The Opposition [i.e. rebel forces in Syria] does not operate helicopters or
use barrel bombs.”
Reports have suggested that sightings were made by a network called Sentry
Syria, which is widely used in Syria as an alert system about approaching aircrafts
and is linked to the White Helmets.
Added to this, Western powers may also have their own system for monitoring
flight paths over Syria.

Reports also say that sightings of the helicopters were corroborated by

eyewitnesses in Douma itself.

Historical context
Douma represents the latest in a series of suspected chemical attacks in Syria.

In the past, investigators from the OPCW have been successful in confirming the
use of toxic substances, but have not always drawn conclusions about who was to
blame. But, time and again, there is at least some evidence that points towards
the Assad regime – even if it’s not always definitive.

Last April, there were reports of 80 people being killed in a suspected chemical
attack in Khan Sheikhoun in northwestern Syria. The OPCW concluded that “a
large number of people, some of whom died, were exposed to sarin or a sarin-like
substance”.

Because of security risks, the investigators were not able to get to the scene
themselves, so could not verify exactly how the chemicals were dispersed.
However, they confirmed it was a deliberate chemical weapons attack, rather
than an accident.

The findings were based on analysis of biomedical specimens, interviews,

environmental samples and other evidence, which was “cross-referenced and
subsequently corroborated”.

The report said: “The only determination that could be made was that sarin had
been used as a weapon.”
But, on other occasions, the OPCW has managed to find sufficient evidence to
blame Assad. These include two attacks, in 2014 and 2015, where Syrian Arab Air
Force helicopters dropped devices which then released toxic chlorine gas.

The verdict
Was there a chemical attack? And, if so, were Assad’s forces responsible?

For the first question, the evidence seems overwhelming.

It is true that many of the sources of information are partisan. It is even possible
that certain rebels in Douma may have sought to exploit the attack.

But to deny that a chemical weapons attack occurred at all, we would need to
believe that scores of people have been involved in a vast and elaborate hoax,
executed without any flaws. They would have needed to coordinate without any
problems through a war-torn area, to ensure civilians, doctors, aircraft-spotters,
and people on social media all came out with the right story at the right time.
Plus, they needed to plant a gas canister at the right spot, and produce fake
videos to such a high quality they not only fool millions across the world, but also
medical experts assessing the symptoms.

The OPCW has not yet done its investigation, but it’s worth noting that they have
already confirmed that it considers the allegations to be “credible”.

However, the evidence is perhaps slightly less strong when it comes to

apportioning blame.
When we look at the full body of evidence, including footage of the gas cylinder,
sightings of helicopters, and the Assad regime’s track record with chemical
weapons, it is seems very likely that Assad is responsible for Douma.

However, at the moment, the evidence we have seen stops short of conclusive
proof. The idea, pushed forward by some, that rebel forces are responsible
(attacking an area they control themselves in a bid to encourage Western
intervention against Assad) is very far-fetched but has not yet been categorically
ruled out.

Indeed, Theresa May herself has used slightly cautious language, saying:
“A significant body of information including intelligence indicates the Syrian
Regime is responsible for this latest attack.”
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