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State need to address all these issues to assert it's dominance and
authority within its border and in the International arena
Providing Security, peace and order is the main function of the state
and Terrorism poses serious threat to all these functions
for academic purpose only
These political movements are weak i.e. lack numbers or conventional military
force and political authority to achieve their political objectives
Seek changes in system that are disproportionate to their political legitimacy
May defend the rights and privileges they perceived are threatened
Their dissatisfaction with the system is extreme and their demands usually is
to change the status co. and over throw the existing political elites
This is not Mao‘s approach of gradually building military power and political
legitimacy to confront the government
for academic purpose only
— Constituent population
— Non-Constituent Population
CASE STUDY
for academic purpose only
CASE STUDY
Michael Collins – Sin Fein – Irish Republic Army (IRA)
January 1919 to December 1921 a small lightly armed group of 5,000
people compelled the most powerful empire of the world to grant
independence 26 counties of Southern Ireland using terrorism
Hand gun, Bombs, dynamites and propaganda achieved things for IRA
that cannot be achieved by ballot box and conventional war
After Easter rising in 1916, Frangoch interment camp prove to be first
IRA war college. Michael graduated from this camp.
Collins knew his enemy well as he worked in England for a decade
Collins‘s became chief Strategist, Financier and Intelligence officer
for academic purpose only
CASE STUDY
Collins and other who won British election (1918) refuse to be seated
in British parliament and instead formed an Irish parliament
He became lead negotiator for IRA with Winston Churchill. He gave
up 6 counties to British which resulted in Ireland Civil war between
maximalists and pragmatists during 1922-23. well Collins died...
Let us discuss Bill fuller 5 audience model and how Collins managed
it. Terrorism is violent negotiation – Collins knew the Ireland was too
important for British Government to give up without a fight. London
had control over Ireland by Civilian Government and Military.
He knew if British militarize the conflict it will give legitimacy to Shin
Fein‘s Irish Parliament. Collins forced the British to do just that
for academic purpose only
CASE STUDY
Most important counter intelligence that British had was civilian law
enforcement Royal Irish Constabulary (RIC) and Dublin Metropolitan
Police (DMP), both were highly professional, well staffed, well
resourced and local knowledge and sources.
In terms of manpower assets and intelligence DMP and RIC has upper
hand in the battle. Collins wants to shift that balance
He declared war on police. In 1919, he sets up ‗The Squad‘ whose job
is murder the best police officers and local informants while
intimidate others. He thus, blinded the British government
He recruited inside persons inside police who were Irish National
for academic purpose only
CASE STUDY
Collins attack on police provided IRA gave ‗operating room‘ in Ireland
as Intelligence Services were incapacitated.
This victory lead British to give up Intensive intelligence operations
and use indiscriminate coercive techniques and militarize the conflict
Collins famously argued worse the reprisal of British on Irish people
better it is for the cause of independence Irish state
He induced police to hire auxiliaries who were hostile to Irish
Collins forced British in cycle of violence and to militarize the conflict
He achieved non-constituent population (i.e. British population) to
remain neutral in conflict. They were exhausted of World War I
for academic purpose only
CASE STUDY
Collins didn‘t allow constituent population to sympathize with British
through propaganda and humiliating punishment
British had a protracted war (WWI) and had huge empire.
Ireland was valuable but how valuable?
Shin Fein had wide appeal to Irish people.
Sympathies of US and other powers were with the Irish people.
Ireland gained independence in 1921
for academic purpose only
CASE STUDY
Lesson learned from case study
Terrorism seems to defy conventional strategic analysis
‗War on Terror‘ is war on Tactic. Very name is wrong. Declaring war what
Al-Qaeda wanted after 9/11
Options vary from ‗Capitulation‘ at one end to ‗Massive Retaliation and
Militarization‘ at the other end
Capitulation leading to ceding to Terrorist and embolden them
Retaliation leads to over-reaction and helps in recruitment of terrorist
for academic purpose only
Line between peace and war is very blurred on purpose and non linear
In 21st century wars are not like 20th century, what happens in one part of
the world has immediate affect on other parts. Changing nature of warfare
have made most modern weapons of 3 GW superfluous and redundant.
For instance USA today has state of the art Army, Navy and Air force in the
world but how do you defeat an enemy that has none of these, how to
defeat an idea. Kill oneself to victory like US in Iraq and Afghanistan?
for academic purpose only
Lets over simplify as it may be complex. There are two main reasons
1) They want to 2) They can join
Spectrum of Response
for academic purpose only
One can use wide range of actions to win the hearts or maintain the
morale of constituent and non-constituent population from economics,
education, counter narratives, nationalism and religion
Shock, dismay, terrorize and demoralize the weak among terrorist
organization and make them double cross by co-operating with Gov.,
as intelligence assets or in propaganda
Make terrorist leadership look bad and evil in the eyes of people
You may break the terrorist ranks to go rogue but in case of Islamic
terrorist/jihadi organization a deserter from Al-Qaeda, ISIS, Taliban,
and Boko Haram may join other group but will not give up Jihad lest
his pay-offs are changed, which is near to impossible.
for academic purpose only
Different States do not share Intel. data and within a state there can be
rivalry between civil and military leadership or within its agencies
Ideally, Media should be controlled by the State
National Security University should be build as terrorism requires
efforts from civil-military leadership. Security needs collective effort
It‘s a realistic world and National Interest is supreme, Countries like
US, Russia, UK, Iran, Saudia, India and Pakistan have used religious
terrorist organization for proxy wars. It should be stopped, how? What
to do when mastermind is sitting outside borders of your country?
for academic purpose only
Terrorism is here to stay for a very long time, we have to learn to live
with it. Terrorism is too attractive and effective form of communication
Islamic Radicalization is usually irreversible in nature i.e. Once a
Jihadi, always a Jihadi, extremely difficult to de-radicalize Mujahedeen
Humans are rational. People always respond to incentives but each
person is free to decide their pay-offs. People will rationally pursue
goals in life which other things absurd. Concept of God carries
unlimited pay-off, if one choose to believe in God as per Pascal's
wager which is consistent with Abrahamic religions. Person who
blows himself in suicide mission is rational in view of an economist, so
is the person who commit suicide. But Pay-off/intention is different.
for academic purpose only
People seek out governance from whoever can deliver it, and if the State
cannot, they‘ll find somebody else to do the job. There are „Three
Principles of Social Order‟ in order to hold a society together
1. Society will hold its self together when the member of the society
believe that it is in their interest to be its members
2. Society will hold itself together as long as the members of society agree
that they have a higher cause to which they are committed.
ِِ الش ِج ِين
اى هِ ش ْي َط أَع ُْْرُ ِب ه
اَّللِ ِه َي ال ه
ُ ث ۡٱۡل َ ۡس
(2:251) ض ِ س َذ ٍ۬ ض ُِن ِببَ ۡع
َ َط لهف َّلَ ْۡ ََل د َۡف ُع ه
َ ٱَّللِ ٱلٌه
َ اس بَ ۡع
... Had Allah not driven back the people, some by means of others, the
earth had surely been corrupted…
ُّه ۡؤ ِهٌِ ۡي َ
(9:14) ي صذ ُّۡ َس قَ ْۡم ِ علَ ۡي ِِ ۡن َّيَ ۡش
ُ ف ُ ٌۡ َّٰللاُ ِبا َ ۡي ِذ ۡيك ُۡن َّيُ ۡخ ِز ُِ ۡن َّي
َ ص ۡشك ُۡن قَاتِلُ ْۡ ُُ ۡن يُعَ ِزّ ۡب ُِ ُن ه
Fight them, Allah will punish them by your hands, cover them with
shame, help you over them and bring healing to breasts of Believers
War will occur when fears or aggressive intent combine with
asymmetries of power to create belief that military action offers
best means to gain relief. (Basic Premise)
for academic purpose only
ّۡ َ ّٰللاُ ِبعَزَاٍ ِ ّه ۡي ِع ٌۡ ِذ ٍۤ ا
ُ ه ن ُ
ك َ بيۡ صِ ُّ ي ىۡ َ ا ُنۡ ك ب
ِ ص ُ ه بشَ َ تَ ً ُ
ي ۡ
ح َ ًَّ ؕ ي
ِ ۡ
ي َ يَ ٌسۡ ح
ُ ۡ
ال َٓص ْۡ َى ِبٌَ ۤا ا ه َِۤل ا ِۡحذ
ُ قُ ۡل َُ ۡل ت َ َشبه
(9:14) ى َ ْۡ ص ُ ّص ْۡۤا اًِها َهعَك ُۡن ُّهت َ َش ِب ُ ِبا َ ۡي ِذ ۡيٌَا ِ فَت َ َشبه
Say: "Can you expect for us other than one of two glorious things- (Martyrdom
or victory)? But we can expect for you either that Allah will send his
punishment from Himself, or by our hands. So wait! we too will wait with you.
(48:20) ّٰللاُ َهغَاًِ َن َكثِ ۡي َشةً ت َ ۡا ُخزُ ًَّۡ َِا
ع َذ ُك ُن ه
َ َّ
Allah has promised you much booty that you will take [in the future]…
Bueno de Mesquita's Expected Utility Theory states decision
maker calculate their expected utility from a war. However, it is
interesting to know many terrorists/jihadi fight to get their sins
forgiven in afterlife and to get the status of Martyrdom.
for academic purpose only
(3:139) َّ ََل ت َ ٌُِِ ْۡا َّ ََل ت َ ۡح َزًُ ْۡا َّا َ ًۡت ُ ُن ۡاَلَ ۡعلَ ْۡ َى ا ِۡى ك ٌُۡت ُ ۡن ُّه ۡؤ ِهٌِ ۡي َي
So do not weaken and do not grieve, and you will be superior if you believe!
(9:33 & 48:28) َ ٍٗ ق ِليُ ۡظ ِِ َش
َّعلَٔ ال ِ ّذ ۡي ِي ُك ِل ِّ س ْۡلَ َٗ ِب ۡال ُِ ٰذٓ َّ ِد ۡي ِي ۡال َحـ َ ُُ َْ اله ِز ۡۤٓ ا َ ۡس
ُ س َل َس
It is He Who has sent His Messenger with Guidance and Deen of Truth, to prevail it
over all Deen (in world). { Note: Deen in Arabic is system of governance/way of life }
Successful military planning begins by defining the end state and working
backward to achieve it. In neither Afghanistan nor Iraq was this fundamental
principle applied. Regime change is not in and of itself adequate end state.
technologies have shrink global time and distance. Once the killing starts,
it‘s hard to stop, and its even more true when its Islamic Country
Both Iraq and Afghanistan war were strategic blunders made by US. It is
Americans contacted Pashtun, Uzbek, and Tajik tribal leaders. Those who
affirmed support were armed and put on the move. If they supported the
Taliban, they might be targeted. With the help of a well-connected Pashtun
intellectual named Hamid Karzai, anti-Taliban forces took the fight all the
way south to Kandahar.
and fierce tensions between various groups, sects, and tribes. The
Kurds in the north aimed for independence. Many Shia in the south
were more attuned to their neighbors in Iran than to the now vacated
Sunni power structure in the center. And the United States had no
solid plan for what to do after regime change.
for academic purpose only
—Self-help system i.e. in order to survive state has to become really powerful
States are rational actors and pursue only their own ‗National Interest‘
War is undesirable, but natural product. It is inevitable to prevent wars.
for academic purpose only