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Original Article

Click here to view the Editorial Comment by G.Y.H. Lip doi: 10.1111/joim.12114

Atrial fibrillation prevalence revisited


L. Friberg1,2 & L. Bergfeldt3
From the 1Department of Clinical Science, Karolinska Institute, Danderyd Hospital, Stockholm; 2Department of Cardiology, Danderyd
Hospital, Stockholm; and 3Department of Molecular and Clinical Medicine/Cardiology, Sahlgrenska Academy, University of Gothenburgh,
Gothenburg, Sweden

Abstract. Friberg L, Bergfeldt L (Karolinska Institute, were still alive on the last day of the inclusion
Danderyd Hospital, Stockholm; Sahlgrenska period, signifying a prevalence of clinically diag-
Academy, University of Gothenburgh, Gothenburg, nosed AF in Sweden of 2.9% of the total adult
Sweden.). Atrial fibrillation prevalence revisited. J (≥20 years) population. Only 42% of them had
Intern Med 2013; 274: 461–468. purchased an oral anticoagulant within 6 months
of the first presentation with AF during the study
Background. The estimate of 0.4–1.0% prevalence of period. Those at the highest risk of stroke were
atrial fibrillation in the most recent American guide- those least likely to receive anticoagulant treat-
lines is based mainly on studies including patients ment. Undertreatment was common amongst
with permanent atrial fibrillation (AF), although women and individuals >80 years, whilst over-
recent evidence shows that the stroke risk is similar treatment was common amongst young men with-
with paroxysmal and persistent AF. Our objective out risk factors.
was to determine the prevalence of AF in Sweden,
irrespective of type and to what extent patients with Conclusion. The prevalence of atrial fibrillation is at
AF receive adequate stroke prophylaxis. least 2.9% of the Swedish adult population, not
counting ‘silent atrial fibrillation’. The official US
Method. Retrospective study of patients with a clin- figures probably underestimate the magnitude of
ical diagnosis of atrial fibrillation between 2005 the problem by a factor of 3–5. More than 80%
and 2010 in the national Swedish Patient Register had risk factors motivating anticoagulation ther-
matched with data from the National Prescribed apy.
Drugs Register.
Keywords: anticoagulation, atrial fibrillation, epide-
Results. We identified 307 476 individuals with a miology.
diagnosis of atrial fibrillation. Of these, 209 141

AF. However, it has been shown that stroke rates


Introduction
are similar in both forms [10–12]. Thus, there is
Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with a 4–5-fold lack of information about the clinically relevant AF
increased risk of stroke [1, 2], a 2–3-fold increased prevalence, which is needed for the assessment of
risk of cardiac failure [3], almost a doubling of its impact on, for example, stroke and heart failure
mortality [4, 5] and impaired quality of life [6]. It is and for planning of future health care.
generally recognized as the most common signifi-
cant dysrhythmia, although the prevalence esti- The aim of this study was to determine the preva-
mates are highly diverging. The latest version of the lence of clinically diagnosed AF in adults in Sweden,
American guideline document on AF says, ‘The irrespective of type (paroxysmal, persistent or per-
estimated prevalence of AF is 0.4% to 1.0% in the manent) and to determine to what extent patients
general population’ [7] whilst their European coun- with AF are receiving adequate stroke prophylaxis.
terpart estimates the prevalence to be ‘1.5–2.0% of
the general population’ [8]. This variability and Methods
uncertainty about the prevalence is in part due to
Study population
inclusion of different types of AF. Older studies
mostly counted patients with permanent AF, which We included all adults (≥20 years) with a primary or
only constitute a minority of all patients with AF secondary diagnosis of AF between 1 July 2005 and
[9]. For many years, the general belief was that 31 December 2010, listed in the national Swedish
paroxysmal AF is less hazardous than permanent Patient Register. It covers all hospitals in the coun-

ª 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine 461
L. Friberg & L. Bergfeldt Atrial fibrillation prevalence revisited

try since 1987 and provides complete lists of dates register automatically stores detailed information
of admissions and discharges with diagnostic codes about every prescription that is handled in every
according to the 10th revision of the International pharmacy in the country since 1 July 2005 and is
Classification of Diseases (ICD-10), as well as codes therefore almost 100% complete. Medication at
for surgical and therapeutic procedures. The baseline was defined as drugs that had been
Patient Register also includes information about collected at a pharmacy within 90 days of the
out-patient visits at hospitals and hospital-man- index date. The only registered oral anticoagulant
aged satellite centres, but not about visits in the in Sweden during the study period was warfarin,
primary care (general practitioners offices). with phenprocoumon as an alternative on special
licence for a very small number of patients intol-
We used the ICD-10 code I489 to identify individuals erant to warfarin.
with an AF diagnosis. This definition includes both
atrial fibrillation and flutter because these dys-
rhythmias are closely related and also have a similar Statistical methods
stroke risk [13]. Each individual was only counted Baseline characteristics were presented descrip-
once and there were no exclusion criteria. The date tively, and differences were tested with t-tests and
of the first occasion with an AF diagnosis during the chi-squared test. P-values <0.05 were considered
inclusion period was used as index date. Diagnoses significant. All analyses were performed in SPSS
given prior to index date were used for the charac- 20.0 (IBM SPSS Statistics, IBM Corporation, Route
terization of previous and concurrent diseases. 100, Somers, NY 10589, USA).
We used this background information to calculate
each patient’s stroke risk score according to the Ethical approval
CHADS2 scheme, which gives 2 points for a previ-
Approval for the study was obtained from the
ous stroke, TIA or systemic emboli, and one point
regional ethical committee in Stockholm (EPN
each for heart failure, hypertension, diabetes and
2005/22–21/4, 2008/433–32).
age ≥75 years [14]. We also calculated the newer
CHA2DS2-VASc score, which in addition to the
Results
CHADS2 score gives 2 points for age ≥75, and 1
point each for age 65-74 years, vascular disease Prevalence
and female sex [1, 15]. The codes used to define
During the 5.5-year inclusion period, 307 476
these conditions are listed in Appendix S1.
unique adult individuals received a hospital diag-
Bleeding risk was calculated using a modified HAS- nosis of AF in Sweden; 98 335 of them died before
BLED score (16) counting points for hypertension, the end of that period. Thus, on 31 December
renal failure, liver disease, thromboembolism, pre- 2010, there were 209 141 living men and women
vious bleeding, age ≥65 years, prescription of ASA with a diagnosis of AF corresponding to a
or clopidogrel and alcohol abuse defined from a prevalence of 2.9% of the adult Swedish popula-
diagnostic code belonging to the ‘alcohol index’ tion. The mean age was 75.2  12.2 years at the
used for statistical purposes by the National Board index date (men 71.9  12.3 years, women
of Health and Welfare (see Appendix S1). We had no 82.2  8.5 years). Clinical characteristics of those
information about INR values for patients treated who survived, and of those who died before the
with warfarin and had omit giving points for that. end of the inclusion period, are presented in
Table 1. The prevalence increased with age up to
Dates of deaths were obtained from the Swedish 14.3% (6168/43 237) at 84 years where after the
Population Register. Information about the general proportion of individuals with AF appeared to
population was obtained from the government decrease (Fig. 1). The prevalence was higher in
agency Statistics Sweden. To make our results men than in women in all age groups (Table 2) and
comparable with other studies in the field, we higher in rural areas where the mean age of the
expressed prevalence as that in the adult popula- population is higher. Thus, prevalence ranged
tion aged ≥20 years, which on 31 December 2010 from 2.5% in the Swedish capital Stockholm,
was 7 232 006. where the mean age of the population is
39.0 years, up to 3.5% in the northernmost rural
Information about medication was obtained from region of Norrbotten, where mean age of the
the National Prescribed Drugs Register. This population was 42.4 years.

462 ª 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine
Journal of Internal Medicine, 2013, 274; 461–468
L. Friberg & L. Bergfeldt Atrial fibrillation prevalence revisited

Table 1 Clinical and demographic characteristics

All patients Survived Died


(n = 307 476) (n = 209 141) (n = 98 335)
Age at index date, years
Mean  SD 75.2  122 71.9  123 82.2  85
Median 77 74 84
<65 18% 25% 4%
65–74 23% 28% 12%
≥75 59% 47% 84%
Sex
Women 45% 43% 49%
Men 55% 57% 51%
Risk score
CHADS2 1.9  1.4 1.6  1.4 2.6  1.4
CHA2DS2-VASc 3.4  1.9 3.0  1.8 4.4  1.7
HAS-BLEDa 2.1  1.1 1.9  1.1 2.4  1.1
Medical history
Thromboembolism 21% 16% 30%
Heart failure 31% 22% 49%
Hypertension 45% 45% 46%
Diabetes 17% 14% 21%
Vascular disease 23% 19% 33%
Prophylaxis at index date
Warfarin only 30% 34% 20%
ASA only 34% 29% 45%
Clopidogrel only 1% 1% 1%
Warfarin 12% 15% 7%
combos
ASA+Clopidogrel 3% 3% 3%
None 20% 19% 24%

a
Modified HAS-BLED without variable ‘labile INR’.

risk stratification schemes, hypertension was the


Comorbidities
most common affecting 45%, followed by heart
Over the years, the patients had accumulated a failure which was found in 31% (Table 3).
mean of 50.2 diagnoses prior to the index date. In
most patients, a few diagnoses reappeared several
Stroke prophylaxis
times in conjunction with new healthcare contacts.
Warfarin, alone or in combination with ASA or
At the index date, >80% of the patients had clopidogrel, was used by 42% of the patients. ASA
comorbidities which would warrant consideration as single therapy was used by 34% and 20% of the
for stroke prophylaxis according to current Amer- patients had no therapy at all (Table 1). Warfarin
ican and European guideline recommendations use was inversely associated with stroke risk so
(CHADS2 score ≥2 in 82% of patients, CHA2DS2- that those at the highest risk of stroke were the
VASc score ≥2 in 83%) [7, 8]. About one-third least likely to receive it (Fig. 2). In contrast, ASA
(34.7%) had high bleeding risk defined as HAS- use increased in parallel with increasing stroke
BLED score ≥3. Amongst the comorbidities in the risk score (Fig. 3). After 80 years of age, warfarin

ª 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine 463
Journal of Internal Medicine, 2013, 274; 461–468
L. Friberg & L. Bergfeldt Atrial fibrillation prevalence revisited

Fig. 1 Prevalence of diag-


nosed atrial fibrillation in rela-
tion to age on 31 December
2010.

Table 2 Atrial fibrillation prevalence by age and sex amongst 209 141 patients alive on 31 December 2010

P
All (n = 209 141) % Men (n = 118 919) % Women (n = 90 222) % Men vs. women
<60 years (n = 30 277) 0.6 0.9 0.3 <0.0001
60–69 years (n = 48 844) 4.2 5.7 2.7 <0.0001
70–79 years (n = 67 089) 9.7 11.5 8.1 <0.0001
80–89 years (n = 55 232) 13.4 14.8 12.6 <0.0001
≥90 years (n = 7699) 9.0 10.1 8.5 <0.0001
All ages 2.9 3.3 2.5 <0.0001

Table 3 Comorbidities in relation to age amongst all 307 476 patients with AF diagnosis

Thromboembolism Heart failure Diabetes Hypertension Vasc. disease


Age, years (n = 63 118) % (n = 95 021) % (n = 51 223) % (n = 138 858) % (n = 71 244) %
<60 (n = 31 952) 5.4 12.3 8.9 24.8 8.5
60–69 (n = 55 508) 12.5 19.1 17.0 43.3 17.7
70–79 (n = 88 886) 20.2 28.2 19.5 49.4 24.4
80–89 (n = 106 182) 27.6 40.4 17.4 49.1 28.4
≥90 (n = 24 948) 28.8 50.1 12.6 43.3 27.3
All ages 20.5 30.9 16.6 45.1 23.1

AF, atrial fibrillation.

use dropped rapidly, and at 90 and higher less


Discussion
than 10% received warfarin (Table 4, Fig. 4). Men
were treated with warfarin more often than women The present prevalence estimate of at least 2.9% is
(46% vs. 37%, P < 0.0001). Warfarin use was considerably higher than the current official esti-
relatively common amongst young men with no mate of 0.4–1.0% in the 2011 guideline update
risk points. In the very low-risk group with 0 points from the American College of Cardiology/American
on CHA2DS2-VASc, 38% had warfarin. Cardiover- Heart Association/Heart Rhythm Society [7]. The
sion was not the primary reason for treatment in American guidelines refer to two sources. One is a
this group because only 11% of them (2347/ meta-analysis from 1995 [18] where the authors
20 899) were cardioverted during the study period. admit that there were so few elderly patients in the

464 ª 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine
Journal of Internal Medicine, 2013, 274; 461–468
L. Friberg & L. Bergfeldt Atrial fibrillation prevalence revisited

data on elderly patients was due to upper age limits


for inclusions in the studies. The second reference
is the ATRIA study, which only counted patients
‘with nontransient atrial fibrillation’, that is, per-
manent AF, which also had to be the principal
diagnosis [17]. In the Euro Heart Survey [9] only
30% of the patients had permanent AF and would
have fulfilled the ATRIA criteria. Furthermore, the
criterion that AF had to be the principal diagnosis
presumably resulted in the exclusion of patients
with many comorbidities who are likely to receive
some other more urgent diagnosis at discharge,
rather than AF. Thus, many patients with AF were
not counted in these earlier prevalence studies
performed at a time when nonpermanent AF was
believed to carry a low risk for stroke.

Observations on stroke prophylaxis


Only 42% of the patients had purchased warfarin at
least once during a 6-month period framing the
index date, although 83% of them had a risk score
indicating that they would have benefited from
Fig. 2 Warfarin use amongst men and women in relation anticoagulation therapy, unless there were strong
to CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED score.
reasons against it [19, 20]. Paradoxically, those at
the highest risk of stroke were those least likely to
receive warfarin treatment. There was an almost
linear decrease in the likelihood of receiving warfa-
rin with increasing stroke risk. In contrast, the
likelihood for receiving ASA increased almost line-
arly with increasing risk. One way to interpret this is
that prescribing doctors recognize the high stroke
risk in patients with high-risk scores, but that they
consider them too frail for anticoagulants and chose
ASA instead. ASA is often perceived as a ‘milder’
treatment option, although the protective effect is
very weak and the bleeding risk is about the same as
with well-managed warfarin therapy [8, 21].

Warfarin treatment rapidly declined after the age of


80, although it is well recognized that advanced age
is one of the most important stroke risk factors.
Women were less often treated with warfarin than
men at all ages (37% vs. 46%), despite their higher
stroke risk [22, 23]. The reason for this is unclear
and calls for further investigation and measures to
improve current practices.

Fig. 3 ASA use amongst men and women in relation to


CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED score. Generalizability of the results
The prevalence of AF within a population is clearly
studies that the they had to ‘arbitrarily chose a related to the proportion of elderly individuals. In
prevalence rate of 10% for all persons older than our study, we found that the regional prevalence
80 years’, which is obviously too low. The lack of varied between 2.5% and 3.5% between two

ª 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine 465
Journal of Internal Medicine, 2013, 274; 461–468
L. Friberg & L. Bergfeldt Atrial fibrillation prevalence revisited

Table 4 Warfarin use at the index date amongst all 307 476 patients with AF diagnosis

P
All (n = 307 476) % Men (n = 168 630) % Women (n = 138 846) % Men vs. women
<60 (n = 31 952) 39.0 41.7 30.9 <0.0001
60–69 (n = 55 508) 52.9 55.8 46.6 <0.0001
70–79 (n = 88 886) 53.8 55.8 51.2 <0.0001
80–89 (n = 106 182) 35.2 37.6 33.2 <0.0001
≥90 (n = 24 948) 9.7 11.2 8.9 <0.0001
All ages 42.1 46.4 36.8 <0.0001

AF, atrial fibrillation.

Fig. 4 Warfarin use in relation


to age and sex amongst all
307 476 patients with atrial
fibrillation (AF).

regions where the mean ages of the populations to a country with a predominantly non-Caucasian
only differed by 3.4 years. In countries with youn- population.
ger population structures than the Swedish, the
overall AF prevalence will probably be lower, but
Limitations
age and sex stratified prevalence may still be
similar. Considering that many countries have It has not been possible for us to verify the AF
rapidly ageing populations the information about diagnoses by ECG recordings. However, a recent
the age and sex stratified prevalence is relevant for validation study of the Swedish Patient Register
the dimensioning of the future healthcare system, could confirm AF in 97% of a random sample [26].
especially with regard to the association with The extent of under diagnosis is not known and
stroke and heart failure, which are the major cost would require population screening to be deter-
drivers [24]. mined. However, in the greater Gothenburg area
(Vaestra Goetaland County) of 1.2 million adults,
It has been suggested that AF prevalence may vary 22% of the patients with AF were cared for only in
according to the ethnic background, which is not primary care (Staffan Bj€
orck, personal communi-
registered for Swedish residents, unlike in the cation), which extrapolated to the whole country
United States and many other countries. Although suggests a prevalence of 3.5%. Patients with sev-
Sweden has become more multicultural in recent eral more urgent or serious diagnoses may have
decades, the Swedish population still consists been left without an AF diagnosis at discharge.
mainly of Caucasians. According to the official
statistical agency Statistics, Sweden only 14% of Underreporting of concomitant and previous dis-
the inhabitants were born abroad, and of these, the eases may have occurred for similar reasons. This
majority were born in Europe [25]. The results of may have affected the risk scores for ischaemic
our study may therefore not be directly applicable stroke, CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc, giving

466 ª 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine
Journal of Internal Medicine, 2013, 274; 461–468
L. Friberg & L. Bergfeldt Atrial fibrillation prevalence revisited

patients falsely lower risk scores than they actually 2 Wolf PA, Dawber TR, Thomas HE Jr, Kannel WB.
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Both authors have completed the ICMJE uniform
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disclosure form at www.icmje.org/coi_disclosure. 7 Fuster V, Ryden LE, Cannom DS et al. 2011 ACCF/AHA/HRS
pdf (available on request from the corresponding focused updates incorporated into the ACC/AHA/ESC 2006
author) and declare: the submitted work was guidelines for the management of patients with atrial fibril-
supported by The Swedish Heart and Lung Foun- lation: a report of the American College of Cardiology Foun-
dation and The Stockholm County Council; no dation/American Heart Association Task Force on practice
guidelines. Circulation 2011; 123: e269–367.
financial relationships with any organisations that
8 Camm AJ, Lip GY, De Caterina R et al. 2012 focused update
might have an interest in the submitted work in the of the ESC Guidelines for the management of atrial fibrilla-
previous 3 years; Outside of the submitted work, tion: an update of the 2010 ESC Guidelines for the manage-
Karolinska Institute received grants in support of ment of atrial fibrillation Developed with the special
LF’s research from Boehringer-Ingelheim, Sanofi- contribution of the European Heart Rhythm Association.
Aventis, Bristol-Myers-Squibb and Bayer. LF has Europace 2012; 14: 1385–413.
9 Nieuwlaat R, Capucci A, Camm AJ et al. Atrial fibrillation
participated in advisory boards with Boehringer-
management: a prospective survey in ESC member countries:
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in advisory boards with Sanofi-Aventis, Boehrin- 2005; 26: 2422–34.
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BMC Public Health 2011; 11: 450.
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468 ª 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine
Journal of Internal Medicine, 2013, 274; 461–468

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