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Euromonitor International
June 2017
BEERINCANADA Passport I
© E ur om o ni t or I n t er n at i on al
BEERINCANADA Passport 1
BEER IN CANADA
HEADLINES
Total volume sales of beer stagnate to remain at 2.4 billion litres in 2016
Craft movement shows no sign of slowing down
Non/low alcohol beer grows the fastest by 17% in total volume terms in 2016
Average unit price of beer records 2% current value growth due to premiumisation
Labatt Brewing and Molson Canada continue to lead with dominant shares while smaller
players thrive
Total volume sales of beer are predicted to marginally decline over the forecast period
TRENDS
Total volume sales of beer stagnated in 2016 to remain at 2.4 billion litres, with the
improvement in the overall performance in 2015 turning out to be relatively short-lived.
Similar to previous years, there were a number of limiting factors in place posing a significant
impediment to positive growth. First, the weather factor was not particularly conducive to
strong growth. While the long and hot summer in Ontario and parts of Quebec offered a
boost, the unusually high number of rainy and stormy days in the west largely offset any
positive growth. Second, the positive impact from sporting events such as Blue Jay’s making
the playoffs was largely absent in 2016. There was also sluggish growth by imported beer
which did not contribute as much as it did in 2015. These factors were in addition to the
negative impact from the ageing of the population, a gradual shift in consumer preference
towards more perceived sophisticated alternatives such as wine, and the mature nature of
beer in Canada.
The average unit price of beer continued to increase, mainly due to premiumisation. Canadian
consumers continued to lean towards higher quality premium beer, whether domestic or
imported, as evident in many categories within alcoholic drinks. Craft beer offerings were
mostly available in the premium segment and the rapid expansion of craft beer hence
contributed to the positive pricing trend of beer as a whole. Additionally, there were increases
in the social reference pricing or socially responsible pricing (SRP) also known as “floor price”
for beer and other alcoholic drinks categories in a number of provinces. As a result, although
there is a polarisation trend where both premium and economic brands are growing, the
pricing for economic brands has been raised due to the rise in floor price. This also
contributed to the positive increase in the average unit price of beer.
Craft beer continued to gain in popularity as consumers, particularly the younger
demographic, consistently searched for unique flavours and styles, intriguing brand stories,
small-batch and locally produced products giving an overall interesting experience. For
example, Ontario-based Collingwood Brewery introduced 2016 Vintage Ale in September
2016 which features all natural ingredients such as Cascade and Chinook hops and local
honey. While established microbrewers, such as the three leaders Steam Whistle, Mill Street
and Beau’s, have a stronghold in the segment, smaller brewers are surfacing at an increasing
speed and are also thriving. This is a compelling sign that craft beer is still in the growth
phase of its lifecycle and there is plenty of room for growth. It is worth noting that many
owners of such start-ups or new micro- and even nano-brewers are also millennials
themselves, and have a good understanding of the needs of the target consumers.
While the craft movement is further intensifying in the provinces of British Columbia, Ontario,
Alberta and parts of Quebec, it is also gaining ground in other parts of Canada. For example,
Saskatchewan has started to see a wave of opening of micro- and nano-brewers such as
Regina, Saskatchewan-based Malty National Brewing. In addition to geographical expansion,
craft products have witnessed interest that has also gradually permeated into other alcoholic
drinks such as spirits, RTDs and cider.
Non/low alcohol beer recorded the fastest total volume growth of 17% to reach 14 million litres
in 2016. Different from other beer types, non/low alcohol beer (no more than 0.5% ABV) is not
typically distributed at liquor board stores or other drinks specialists, but typically through
grocery retailers. For instance, LCBO is not allowed to sell these products by law. As such,
they have greater exposure to consumers with a higher number of points-of-sale. With the
growing awareness of socially responsible drinking and tougher anti-drink driving rules,
non/low alcohol beer is gaining in popularity which has prompted Labatt Brewing to launch
Prohibition Brew in May 2016, which is its first venture into this category. The brand has wide
distribution that also includes Costco Canada stores.
Lager continued to hold the highest total volume share within beer at 87% in 2016, declining
by 1% to reach 2.1 billion litres. Premium lager managed to record 1% growth, supported by
the premiumisation trend and continued rise of craft beer, accounting for a 21% total volume
share of lager, while the larger mid-priced lager (a 53% total volume share) declined by 2%
and economy lager stagnated. Between domestic and imported lager, the former declined by
1%, while the latter expands marginally at 1% which is a significant slowdown from 2015.
Ale grew by 2% in total volume terms to reach 287 million litres, while stout stagnated,
remaining at 10 million litres in 2016. Ale benefits the most from the craft beer movement as a
greater proportion of craft beer is in the ale format. Some of the most exciting new product
trends have been in ale, with the chief example being Indian pale ales (IPAs). New craft
brewers also tend to start with ale as it typically takes less time to produce than lager and is
also relatively more versatile in terms of the ways of experimenting with it in flavours and
styles.
One significant change in beer in Canada has been the de-regulation of beer sales in the
country, particularly in Ontario and Saskatchewan over 2015-2016. The Government of
Ontario announced the plan to allow beer to be sold in grocery retailers in March 2015, and
beer arrived in close to 60 stores towards the end of the year, marking a material change in
the retailing of alcoholic drinks in the most populous province in Canada. By end of 2016,
approximately 130 stores obtained the licence to sell beer and cider, 70 of which can sell wine,
and these stores include selected locations for hypermarkets (Wal-Mart Supercentres),
supermarkets (top three grocery retailers, namely, Loblaw, Metro, and Sobeys), discounters
(Food Basics), boutique grocery stores (Highland Farms) and ethnic grocery retailers (Galleria
Supermarket). However, convenience stores, forecourt retailers and warehouse clubs were
not included on this list at the end of the review period. Still there are certain restrictions
applied to grocery retailers including no more than multipacks of six.
categories such as craft beer, non/low-alcohol beer and flavoured/mixed lager are growing
despite the overall weakness in demand for beer.
There is a strong seasonality to beer sales in Canada, and sales during the summer months
typically account for over one third of annual sales. In volume terms, imported beer accounted
for a 17% share of total beer consumption in Canada in 2016 according to official statistics,
industry associations and Euromonitor International estimates. The US remained the largest
beer exporter to Canada, followed by Mexico, the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, the UK,
Ireland, France and Denmark.
Overall in 2016, imported brands continued to perform well although not as impressive as the
previous year, outpacing domestic beer which received some relief, buoyed by craft beer and
some domestic brands.
COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Labatt Brewing and Molson Canada continued to lead beer with dominant share in Canada in
2016. Labatt Brewing (part of Anheuser-Busch InBev) claimed a 45% total volume share of
beer, representing an increase from 44% in 2016. Ranking second, Molson Canada
(controlled by Molson Coors Brewing) held a 35% total volume share, also a marginal
increase from 34% in 2015.
The increase in the share of Labatt Brewing can be attributed mostly to the relatively strong
performance of its leading brands such as Budweiser in the year, consistently gaining share
towards the end of the review period. Labatt has also been making acquisitions of craft beer
brands and assets such as Ontario-based Mill Street and Westminster, and British Columbia-
based Turning Point Brewery in 2015-2016. It also ventured into spirit-based RTDs (it has a
presence in malt-based RTDs) growing relatively faster by acquiring brands from Mark
Anthony Group at the end of 2015 to early 2016. One of the most notable new product
launches from Labatt Brewing was the introduction of Prohibition Brew under Budweiser in
May 2016 in Canada, which is the first foray of this leading brand into non/low alcohol beer.
This category has experienced a great deal of promise of growth, and is also one of the first
moves by a major brand for many years in non/low alcohol beer.
Molson Canada experienced relatively weaker growth for its portfolio towards the end of the
review period compared to Labatt Brewing. In 2016, Anheuser-Busch InBev acquired UK-
based SABMiller and as a step towards completing the deal and obtaining regulatory
approval, the two parties sold the stake of SABMiller in the joint venture, MillerCoors, between
SABMiller and Molson Coors. Consequently, Molson Canada took over a number of brands
from SABMiller, including Miller Chill Lime in flavoured/mixed lager, Miller Genuine Draft and
Miller Lite in imported premium Lager. It is noted that as part of the deal, Asahi Group
Holdings, Ltd became the global brand owner of Grolsch and Pilsner Urquell in 2016.
Molson Canada is also focusing on some key brands in growing categories; with the example
of premium brand Mad Jack, launched in 2014 into flavoured/mixed lager with national
distribution since early 2015. In 2016, the brand introduced Mad Jack Hard Root Beer and
Premium Ginger Lager as well as a mixer pack of the three flavours named “Mad Jack Crazy
Good”, targeting specifically younger demographics. Molson Canada also extended the
partnership with Heineken NV to distribute all of Heineken’s brands in Canada starting from
2016, including Dos Equis and Beamish Irish Stout.
The third largest brewer in Canada is Sleeman Breweries which is owned by Sapporo
Holdings, holding a 5% total volume share in Canada in 2016. The top three players, namely
Labatt Brewing, Molson Canada and Sleeman Breweries, jointly own Brewers Retailer Inc
(BRI) which operates the Beer Store (TBS) in the province of Ontario, the largest beer market
in Canada.
Major regional players include Brick Brewing Co Ltd, Big Rock Brewery Inc and Moosehead
Breweries Ltd. Brick Brewing Co operates mostly in the province of Ontario, and its portfolio
includes an economy brand, Laker, which is experiencing significant decline; a craft beer
brand, Waterloo Dark, which has experienced a relatively better performance towards the end
of the review period; and cider and RTDs. Being able to secure listings at LCBO and TBS is
vital to its success. Big Rock Brewery has faced challenges towards the end of the review
period as it mainly competes in Alberta where beer sales are completely privatised and
competition is intense. As a result, it is actively extending its reach to Ontario, BC and other
provinces/territories for growth opportunities. Moosehead has coverage in Ontario and
Maritime Provinces, and has been the producer and distributor for Samuel Adams beer sold in
Canada and is an important partner for Guinness in Canada.
PROSPECTS
Beer is predicted to stagnate, remaining at 2.4 billion litres in total volume sales by 2021. This
prediction is primarily based on the assumption that the contribution from craft beer and the
expansion of beer’s distribution in Ontario and other parts of Canada may offset, at least
partially, the negative impact from demographic change that is projected to intensify and
competition from alternative alcoholic beverages such as wine. Additionally, Canada’s
economic growth is projected to be slow but positive overall, similar to other developed
economies, and the impact from weather factors and sporting events is projected to be similar
to previous years. Some industry sources are more optimistic quoting the growing share of
imported beer and craft beer, while others are less so, noting macroeconomic factors and an
increase in average unit prices that may suppress growth in volume terms, while supporting
value increase for beer. Some also believe that opening up beer sales in grocery retailers will
most likely lead to conversion from current TBS and LCBO stores and help little in terms of
overall volume sales.
Lager is projected to follow the growth trend of overall beer, marginally declining to two billion
litres, while ale is predicted to continue growing positively with a total volume CAGR of 2% to
reach 311 million litres by 2021. The craft beer movement is likely to maintain its strong
momentum and may reach a more mature stage beyond the forecast period, which benefits
ale more.
Stout is predicted to record a -1% total volume CAGR to fall to 10 million litres, while non/low
alcohol beer is projected to continue to rapidly expand, with a total volume CAGR of 12%,
growing from a relatively small base to reach 24 million litres by 2021. It is primarily based on
the assumption that greater interest from the industry will be drawn to this category and the
latest announcement of Heineken in launching its Heineken 0.0 in Europe is an example in
this direction. This specific product may be introduced to Canada sooner if Budweiser’s
Prohibition Brew meets with success.
With the takeover of the previous SABMiller brands, Molson Canada will likely incorporate
some of the premium brands such as Miller Genuine Draft and Miller Lite, while phasing out
less profitable brands including those in the economy and mid-priced ranges. Furthermore, it
may bring some of the successful brands from other parts of the world, such as Miller High
Life.
Over the forecast period, the retail distribution of beer will likely continue to evolve. In Ontario,
the government will allow a higher number of stores to sell beer, from 2016’s list of
approximately 130 to eventually around 450 stores by 2025. By then, this could mean nearly
one third of the supermarkets could have beer offerings, and the store count could mean a
critical mass in beer sales. This would be particularly positive for craft and local brands, as
most of the stores allowed to sell beer opt to have a higher number of craft brands than 20%
as mandated by the government. There could also be opportunities for brands in designing
products specifically for grocery beer shoppers in areas such as food pairing and packaging
designs. In Saskatchewan, a greater number of government liquors will be privatised and
more private drinks specialists could open, also marking further changes to the retail
landscape.
As Canada is set to legalise the recreational use of marijuana as early as 2017, liquor board
stores such as LCBO and SAQ are being proposed as the venue for the sale of these
products. If this indeed happens, it could also have a positive impact on alcoholic drinks sales,
including those of beer.
CATEGORY BACKGROUND
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources
Note: Price bands for lager are based primarily on price, but positioning and packaging are other factors that
are considered in classification
Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CATEGORY DATA
Table 2 Sales of Beer by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
million litres
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CAD million
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
million litres
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CAD million
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% volume growth
2015/16 2011-16 CAGR 2011/16 TOTAL
% total volume
Company 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% total volume
% total volume
Brand (Global Brand Company 2013 2014 2015 2016
Owner)
InBev NV)
Others Others 44.5 45.1 45.8 46.2
Total Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Euromonitor International from official statistics, trade associations, trade press, company research,
store checks, trade interviews, trade sources
million litres
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
million litres
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CAD million
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Beer – Trinidad & Tobago 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.5
Beer – Turkey 4.1 4.0 4.8 4.9 5.3 4.0
Beer – United Kingdom 46.3 35.8 43.1 64.2 60.1 48.9
Beer – United States 128.3 123.9 139.4 195.5 197.2 186.5
Beer – Austria 2.4 3.3 4.2 8.3 10.3 8.4
Beer – Belgium 62.0 62.0 59.5 80.2 87.4 75.6
Beer – China 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.7 2.9 2.5
Beer – Czech Republic 6.4 7.0 7.2 8.6 8.8 9.1
Beer – Denmark 11.5 12.2 14.9 18.0 19.6 15.7
Beer – France 10.3 12.0 14.8 22.4 25.9 23.0
Beer – Germany 31.4 29.5 32.9 41.5 43.4 36.1
Beer – Iceland 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5
Beer – Ireland 34.7 40.9 40.8 46.8 41.3 35.2
Beer – Italy 2.7 3.7 4.9 8.0 8.3 8.8
Beer – Jamaica 3.0 3.6 3.7 5.2 4.9 4.9
Beer – Japan 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.6
Beer – Mexico 110.8 78.1 83.4 99.3 103.0 109.9
Beer – Netherlands 129.7 134.4 138.1 172.5 154.3 139.8
Beer – New Zealand 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.6
Beer – Poland 6.1 6.2 6.7 9.1 8.3 8.4
Beer – Russia 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.6
Beer – Singapore 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7
Beer – Slovakia 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.8
Beer – Spain 0.7 1.0 1.3 2.1 2.5 2.3
Beer – Thailand 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.3
Beer – Others 6.3 3.0 4.0 4.2 5.5 3.2
Beer – Total 603.4 567.3 611.1 801.6 795.7 729.0
Source: IHS Markit/GTA, Euromonitor International
Note: ‘-’ indicates data not available
million litres
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CAD million
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
million litres
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
CAD million
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021