Predicting​ ​the​ ​Outcome​ ​of​ ​a​ ​League​ ​of

Legends​ ​Ranked​ ​Match​ ​Through​ ​the​ ​Use​ ​of

In-Game​ ​Features

Joshua​ ​Capule​ ​Manzano

College​ ​of​ ​Computer​ ​Studies
De​ ​La​ ​Salle​ ​University,​ ​Manila​ ​Philippines

josh_manzano@dlsu.edu.ph

Abstract.​​ ​A​ ​dataset​ ​is​ ​built​ ​into​ ​a​ ​model​ ​for​ ​the​ ​prediction​ ​of​ ​ranked​ ​match
outcomes​ ​for​ ​the​ ​popular​ ​online​ ​multiplayer​ ​game​ ​League​ ​of​ ​Legends,
features​ ​are​ ​extracted​ ​from​ ​the​ ​data​ ​that​ ​Riot​ ​Games​ ​API​ ​exposes–including
champions​ ​picked​ ​for​ ​the​ ​game,​ ​ ​player​ ​ ​role​ ​ ​information,​ ​ ​and​ ​ ​mastery
levels​ ​ ​for​ ​the​ ​ ​players’​ ​champions​ ​ ​(pre-game​ ​ ​knowledge)​ ​ ​as​ ​ ​well​ ​as
in-game​ ​even​ ​statistics​ ​and​ ​player​ ​ ​statistics.​ ​We​ ​find​ ​that​ ​pre-​ ​match
knowledge​ ​ ​(champions,​ ​ ​masteries,​ ​ ​roles,​ ​ ​spells)​ ​does​ ​not​ ​affect​ ​outcome
of​ ​the​ ​match​ ​as​ ​much​ ​as​ ​in-game​ ​statistics​ ​such​ ​as​ ​objectives​ ​secured​ ​and
tower/champion​ ​kills.
1 Introduction
Due​ ​to​ ​the​ ​prevalence​ ​of​ ​online​ ​multiplayer​ ​games​ ​such​ ​as​ ​League​ ​of
Legends,​ ​predicting​ ​match​ ​outcomes​ ​based​ ​on​ ​pre-game​ ​statistics​ ​have​ ​already
been​ ​done​ ​multiple​ ​times​ ​before.​ ​This​ ​study​ ​will​ ​be​ ​focusing​ ​on​ ​using​ ​both
pre-game​ ​statistics​ ​and​ ​in-game​ ​statistics​ ​as​ ​features​ ​to​ ​classify​ ​and​ ​predict​ ​the
outcomes​ ​of​ ​ranked​ ​matches.​ ​Both​ ​features​ ​will​ ​be​ ​tested​ ​on​ ​how​ ​much​ ​they​ ​affect
the​ ​outcome​ ​of​ ​the​ ​game.​ ​Since​ ​a​ ​regular​ ​game​ ​of​ ​League​ ​of​ ​Legends​ ​generates​ ​so
much​ ​data​ ​and​ ​statistics,​ ​it​ ​would​ ​be​ ​infeasible​ ​to​ ​use​ ​all​ ​of​ ​these​ ​as​ ​features.​ ​To
make​ ​the​ ​study​ ​more​ ​feasible,​ ​the​ ​only​ ​statistics​ ​that​ ​would​ ​be​ ​used​ ​are​ ​ones​ ​that
would​ ​most​ ​likely​ ​affect​ ​the​ ​game​ ​such​ ​as​ ​first​ ​kills,​ ​objectives​ ​secured,​ ​inhibitors
destroyed​ ​etc.​ ​Decision​ ​Trees,​ ​Naive-Bayes,​ ​and​ ​Deep​ ​Learning​ ​will​ ​be​ ​employed
in​ ​creating​ ​the​ ​different​ ​models​ ​needed.​ ​These​ ​models​ ​will​ ​then​ ​be​ ​compared​ ​to​ ​see
which​ ​one​ ​works​ ​the​ ​best​ ​in​ ​predicting​ ​the​ ​outcome​ ​of​ ​a​ ​match.
2 Review​ ​of​ ​Related​ ​Studies
This​ ​study​ ​employs​ ​similar​ ​methods​ ​used​ ​by​ ​other​ ​studies,​ ​with​ ​the
difference​ ​of​ ​the​ ​algorithms​ ​used.​ ​A​ ​study​ ​made​ ​by​ ​Lucas,​ ​L​ ​called​ ​“League​ ​Of
Legends​ ​Outcome​ ​Prediction”​ ​[1]​ ​uses​ ​gradient​ ​boosted​ ​trees​ ​and​ ​gradient​ ​boosted
trees​ ​with​ ​logistic​ ​regression​ ​to​ ​predict​ ​the​ ​match​ ​outcomes.​ ​Similar​ ​other
websites/software​ ​and​ ​the​ ​League​ ​Of​ ​Legends​ ​API​ ​itself​ ​provides​ ​the​ ​means​ ​to​ ​do
automated​ ​basic​ ​analysis​ ​to​ ​the​ ​match​ ​and​ ​player​ ​statistics​ ​of​ ​a​ ​user.​ ​The
limitations​ ​of​ ​these​ ​are​ ​the​ ​lack​ ​of​ ​a​ ​more​ ​in-depth​ ​analysis​ ​of​ ​thousands​ ​of
matches,​ ​since​ ​the​ ​scope​ ​that​ ​they​ ​can​ ​analyze​ ​in​ ​is​ ​very​ ​small.​ ​This​ ​study​ ​will​ ​also
be​ ​differentiating​ ​between​ ​the​ ​effects​ ​of​ ​pre-game​ ​statistics​ ​and​ ​in-game​ ​statistics
to​ ​the​ ​outcome​ ​of​ ​a​ ​match.
3 Methodology
This​ ​study​ ​includes​ ​the​ ​the​ ​three​ ​processes,​ ​(1)​ ​Dataset​ ​building,​ ​(2)​ ​Feature
Selection,​ ​and​ ​the​ ​(3)​ ​Model-building​ ​and​ ​classification​ ​task.

For​ ​Dataset​ ​building​ ​and​ ​Feature​ ​Selection,​ ​most​ ​of​ ​the​ ​data​ ​gathered​ ​and
selection​ ​was​ ​obtained​ ​from​ ​Kaggle.com​ ​[2],​ ​where​ ​the​ ​author​ ​states​ ​that​ ​most​ ​of
the​ ​data​ ​was​ ​gathered​ ​through​ ​the​ ​Riot​ ​Games​ ​API,​ ​in​ ​which​ ​it​ ​was​ ​easy​ ​to​ ​gather
other​ ​users’​ ​ranked​ ​game​ ​history​ ​and​ ​statistics.

Data​ ​Set​ ​Building

A​ ​labeled​ ​data​ ​set​ ​containing​ ​51,491​ ​matches​ ​(only​ ​10,000​ ​of​ ​which​ ​will​ ​be
utilized)​ ​will​ ​be​ ​used​ ​to​ ​make​ ​a​ ​model​ ​that​ ​could​ ​analyze​ ​the​ ​outcome​ ​of​ ​a​ ​match,
of​ ​which​ ​it​ ​contains​ ​pre-game​ ​(champions​ ​selected)​ ​and​ ​in-game​ ​statistics.​ ​These
data​ ​sets​ ​will​ ​be​ ​used​ ​to​ ​analyze​ ​which​ ​feature​ ​affects​ ​the​ ​outcome​ ​of​ ​the​ ​game​ ​the
most​ ​and​ ​which​ ​ones​ ​could​ ​affect​ ​predictability.

Feature​ ​Selection​ ​and​ ​Extraction

Due​ ​to​ ​the​ ​aforementioned​ ​infeasibility​ ​of​ ​using​ ​all​ ​of​ ​the​ ​statistics​ ​in
analyzing​ ​the​ ​outcome​ ​of​ ​a​ ​match,​ ​the​ ​features​ ​chosen​ ​will​ ​only​ ​be​ ​limited​ ​to​ ​20
pre-game​ ​and​ ​8​ ​in-game​ ​statistic​ ​features.​ ​Features​ ​such​ ​as​ ​number​ ​of​ ​last​ ​hits,
number​ ​of​ ​player​ ​kills,​ ​and​ ​jungle​ ​creeps​ ​killed​ ​etc.​ ​will​ ​not​ ​be​ ​included.​ ​The
included​ ​features​ ​are​ ​as​ ​follows:

In-Game​ ​Features:
gameDuration:​ ​Duration​ ​of​ ​the​ ​game.
firstBlood:​ ​Which​ ​team​ ​got​ ​the​ ​first​ ​kill​ ​in​ ​the​ ​game.
firstTower:​ ​Which​ ​team​ ​got​ ​the​ ​first​ ​tower​ ​kill​ ​in​ ​the​ ​game.
firstInhibitor:​ ​Which​ ​team​ ​got​ ​the​ ​first​ ​inhibitor​ ​kill​ ​in​ ​the​ ​game.
firstBaron:​ ​Which​ ​team​ ​got​ ​the​ ​first​ ​baron​ ​kill​ ​in​ ​the​ ​game.
 firstDragon:​ ​Which​ ​team​ ​got​ ​the​ ​first​ ​dragon​ ​kill​ ​in​ ​the​ ​game.
firstRiftHerald:​ ​Which​ ​team​ ​got​ ​the​ ​first​ ​rift​ ​herald​ ​kill​ ​in​ ​the​ ​game.
t1/t2_towerKills:​ ​The​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​tower​ ​kills​ ​a​ ​team​ ​got​ ​in​ ​the​ ​game.
t1/t2_inhibitorKills:​ ​The​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​inhibitor​ ​kills​ ​a​ ​team​ ​got​ ​in​ ​the​ ​game.
t1/t2_baronKills:​ ​The​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​baron​ ​kills​ ​a​ ​team​ ​got​ ​in​ ​the​ ​game.
t1/t2_dragonKills:​ ​The​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​dragon​ ​kills​ ​a​ ​team​ ​got​ ​in​ ​the​ ​game.
t1/t2_riftHerald:​ ​The​ ​amount​ ​of​ ​rift​ ​herald​ ​kills​ ​a​ ​team​ ​got​ ​in​ ​the​ ​game.

Pre-Game​ ​Features:
champID​ ​(t1/t2​ ​and​ ​1-5):​ ​Champions​ ​picked​ ​by​ ​each​ ​team.
ban​ ​(t1/t2​ ​and​ ​1-5):​ ​Champions​ ​banned​ ​by​ ​each​ ​team.

Model-Building​ ​and​ ​Classification

As​ ​stated,​ ​one​ ​data​ ​sets​ ​will​ ​be​ ​used.​ ​Cross​ ​Validation​ ​on​ ​all​ ​three
algorithms​ ​will​ ​be​ ​used​ ​to​ ​ensure​ ​that​ ​estimation​ ​of​ ​accuracy​ ​will​ ​be​ ​optimal.​ ​The
data​ ​set​ ​will​ ​be​ ​subjected​ ​to​ ​the​ ​three​ ​algorithms​ ​which​ ​are​ ​Decision​ ​Tree,
Naive-Bayes,​ ​and​ ​Deep​ ​Learning.

Cross​ ​Validation​ ​Process​ ​of​ ​the​ ​three​ ​algorithms​ ​are​ ​as​ ​follows:

Decision​ ​Tree​ ​Model

Naive-Bayes​ ​Model

Deep​ ​Learning​ ​Model

The​ ​results​ ​and​ ​accuracy​ ​of​ ​the​ ​models​ ​built​ ​from​ ​the​ ​two​ ​data​ ​sets​ ​will​ ​be
then​ ​analyzed​ ​to​ ​see​ ​which​ ​features​ ​are​ ​most​ ​important​ ​and​ ​which​ ​would​ ​model
would​ ​be​ ​most​ ​accurate.
4 Results​ ​and​ ​Discussion
Decision​ ​Tree

When​ ​t2_towerKills​ ​>​ ​6.500

When​ ​t2_towerKills​ ​<​ ​6.500

The​ ​most​ ​notable​ ​things​ ​we​ ​can​ ​notice​ ​about​ ​the​ ​decision​ ​tree​ ​is​ ​that​ ​most​ ​of​ ​the
results​ ​end​ ​up​ ​in​ ​two​ ​branches,​ ​wherein​ ​tower​ ​kills​ ​and​ ​inhibitor​ ​kills​ ​are​ ​factored
in.​ ​This​ ​tells​ ​us​ ​that​ ​most​ ​of​ ​the​ ​games​ ​were​ ​decided​ ​based​ ​on​ ​how​ ​many​ ​towers​ ​or
inhibitors​ ​were​ ​destroyed.​ ​The​ ​other​ ​factors​ ​such​ ​as​ ​champion​ ​picks​ ​and​ ​game
duration​ ​were​ ​mostly​ ​ignored​ ​and​ ​pruned​ ​off​ ​due​ ​to​ ​too​ ​much​ ​variance​ ​on​ ​no​ ​real
difference​ ​between​ ​each​ ​other.​ ​This​ ​tells​ ​us​ ​that​ ​these​ ​factors​ ​are​ ​least​ ​likely​ ​to
affect​ ​the​ ​game.

Cross​ ​Validation:

PerformanceVector:
accuracy:​ ​95.90%​ ​+/-​ ​0.35%​ ​(mikro:​ ​95.90%)
ConfusionMatrix:
True: Blue Red
Blue: 4880 252
Red: 158 4710

According​ ​to​ ​the​ ​performance​ ​vector,​ ​the​ ​decision​ ​tree​ ​algorithm​ ​is​ ​the​ ​most
accurate​ ​out​ ​of​ ​all​ ​three​ ​with​ ​an​ ​accuracy​ ​of​ ​95.90​ ​percent.​ ​It​ ​scored​ ​noticeably
better​ ​in​ ​determining​ ​whether​ ​the​ ​blue​ ​team​ ​won​ ​and​ ​worse​ ​when​ ​determining
whether​ ​the​ ​red​ ​team​ ​won​ ​according​ ​to​ ​its​ ​confusion​ ​matrix.​ ​This​ ​indicates​ ​that​ ​it
may​ ​be​ ​a​ ​little​ ​inconsistent​ ​and​ ​biased​ ​towards​ ​one​ ​team,​ ​as​ ​there​ ​is​ ​a​ ​94​ ​sample
margin​ ​in​ ​which​ ​it​ ​is​ ​not​ ​consistent.
Naive-Bayes

Distribution​ ​model​ ​for​ ​label​ ​attribute​ ​winner

Class​ ​Blue​ ​(0.504)

57​ ​distributions

Class​ ​Red​ ​(0.496)

57​ ​distributions

In​ ​Naive-Bayes,​ ​we​ ​are​ ​able​ ​to​ ​see​ ​more​ ​accurately​ ​how​ ​much​ ​each​ ​feature
affected​ ​the​ ​outcome​ ​of​ ​the​ ​match.We​ ​are​ ​able​ ​to​ ​see​ ​that​ ​getting​ ​the​ ​first​ ​kill,
tower​ ​kill,​ ​or​ ​objective​ ​made​ ​the​ ​match​ ​outcome​ ​win​ ​lean​ ​significantly​ ​towards​ ​the
team​ ​who​ ​got​ ​it.
 As​ ​we​ ​saw​ ​in​ ​the​ ​decision​ ​trees,​ ​game​ ​duration​ ​and​ ​other​ ​factors​ ​did​ ​not
sway​ ​the​ ​outcome​ ​that​ ​much.
Cross​ ​Validation​ ​Results:

PerformanceVector:
accuracy:​ ​93.81%​ ​+/-​ ​0.49%​ ​(mikro:​ ​93.81%)
ConfusionMatrix:
True: Blue Red
Blue: 4775 356
Red: 263 4606

According​ ​to​ ​the​ ​performance​ ​vector,​ ​the​ ​Naive-Bayes​ ​scored​ ​worse​ ​in
accuracy​ ​out​ ​of​ ​all​ ​the​ ​three​ ​with​ ​an​ ​accuracy​ ​of​ ​93.81​ ​percent.​ ​It​ ​is​ ​also​ ​similar​ ​to
the​ ​decision​ ​tree​ ​in​ ​terms​ ​of​ ​consistency,​ ​having​ ​a​ ​93​ ​sample​ ​margin.

Deep​ ​Learning
PerformanceVector:
accuracy:​ ​95.55%​ ​+/-​ ​0.69%​ ​(mikro:​ ​95.55%)
ConfusionMatrix:
True: Blue Red
Blue: 4820 227
Red: 218 4735

In​ ​Deep​ ​Learning,​ ​we​ ​see​ ​that​ ​it​ ​is​ ​the​ ​most​ ​consistent​ ​in​ ​determining​ ​which
team​ ​has​ ​won,​ ​only​ ​having​ ​a​ ​9​ ​sample​ ​margin.​ ​This​ ​indicates​ ​that​ ​deep​ ​learning
can​ ​be​ ​used​ ​to​ ​more​ ​reliably​ ​predict​ ​the​ ​outcome​ ​of​ ​a​ ​match,​ ​as​ ​the​ ​features/match
statistics​ ​are​ ​stable​ ​enough​ ​to​ ​correctly​ ​determine​ ​who​ ​is​ ​the​ ​winner.
5 Conclusion​ ​and​ ​Future​ ​Work
In​ ​conclusion,​ ​we​ ​can​ ​state​ ​that​ ​match​ ​statistics​ ​influences​ ​a​ ​ranked​ ​match​ ​in
League​ ​of​ ​Legends​ ​enough​ ​to​ ​safely​ ​predict​ ​its​ ​outcome.​ ​Features​ ​such​ ​as​ ​tower
kills​ ​and​ ​inhibitor​ ​kills​ ​affect​ ​the​ ​outcome​ ​the​ ​most​ ​based​ ​on​ ​what​ ​we​ ​learned​ ​on
the​ ​Decision​ ​Tree​ ​result.​ ​While​ ​the​ ​outcome​ ​may​ ​hinge​ ​on​ ​tower​ ​kills​ ​and​ ​inhibitor
kills,​ ​other​ ​features​ ​such​ ​as​ ​first​ ​kill,​ ​tower​ ​kill,​ ​or​ ​objective​ ​still​ ​affects​ ​the
outcome​ ​albeit​ ​not​ ​as​ ​much​ ​as​ ​the​ ​two​ ​aforementioned​ ​features.

To​ ​predict​ ​a​ ​match,​ ​it​ ​is​ ​best​ ​to​ ​use​ ​Deep​ ​Learning​ ​for​ ​its​ ​consistency.​ ​While
Decision​ ​Trees​ ​may​ ​be​ ​slightly​ ​more​ ​accurate,​ ​they​ ​are​ ​also​ ​volatile.​ ​Naive-Bayes
yielded​ ​poor​ ​accuracy​ ​when​ ​predicting​ ​the​ ​outcome​ ​of​ ​a​ ​match​ ​and​ ​should​ ​be​ ​not
be​ ​used​ ​for​ ​predicting​ ​as​ ​it​ ​is​ ​not​ ​suited​ ​to​ ​the​ ​data​ ​set.

The​ ​data​ ​set​ ​used​ ​is​ ​built​ ​from​ ​10,000​ ​different​ ​ranked​ ​games​ ​from​ ​various
players​ ​playing​ ​League​ ​of​ ​Legends.​ ​This​ ​data​ ​set​ ​could​ ​be​ ​refined​ ​if​ ​other​ ​features
could​ ​be​ ​added​ ​without​ ​making​ ​it​ ​unfeasible​ ​such​ ​as​ ​playing​ ​time​ ​of​ ​each​ ​player,
in-game​ ​ranks​ ​of​ ​players,​ ​and/or​ ​gold​ ​differences.

To​ ​further​ ​improve​ ​the​ ​goals​ ​of​ ​the​ ​study,​ ​an​ ​even​ ​more​ ​comprehensive
machine​ ​learning​ ​algorithm​ ​can​ ​be​ ​used​ ​on​ ​an​ ​even​ ​bigger​ ​data​ ​set​ ​to​ ​significantly
increase​ ​accuracy​ ​and​ ​understanding​ ​on​ ​which​ ​factors​ ​affect​ ​a​ ​game’s​ ​outcome.
Best-case​ ​scenario​ ​would​ ​be​ ​having​ ​a​ ​data​ ​set​ ​from​ ​players​ ​around​ ​the​ ​world​ ​and​ ​a
supercomputer​ ​that​ ​would​ ​be​ ​able​ ​to​ ​calculate​ ​the​ ​neural​ ​connections​ ​needed​ ​to
make​ ​nearly​ ​perfect​ ​predictions.
References
[1]​ ​Lin,​ ​L.​ ​(n.d.).​ ​League​ ​Of​ ​Legends​ ​Match​ ​Outcome​ ​Prediction.​ ​Retrieved​ ​from
http://cs229.stanford.edu/proj2016/report/Lin-LeagueOfLegendsMatchOutcomePre
diction-report.pdf
[2]​ ​Retrieved​ ​from:​ ​https://www.kaggle.com/datasnaek/league-of-legends