Basic Concept of Reliability

Background
Automation in Industry Process
Complexity of industry System as well as their product day by day

Effectiveness – Is ability of the system for fulfillment of the intended tasks

and efficiency of utilizing the means put into it

The ability / Suitability of the system is primarily determined by the

reliability and quality of the system.

Reliability haunts every one – 1. System used in space

2. Low cost common consumer

Reliability of components used in TV sets can’t be expected to be high as the

reliability of components used in missile or space

3/26/2018 ISD 1
Contd….

Reliability
 The probability that a failure may not occur in the given time interval

 Reliability of a unit / product / components is the probability that the unit

perform its intended function adequately for a given period of time under
the stated operating condition or environment

 If the T is the time till failure of the unit ( a random variable ) occurs , then
the probability that it will not fail in a given time t is

R(t) = P(T > t)

 Thus reliability always function of time

 It also depends on environmental conditions which may or may not very
with time.
 Its numerical values always lies between 0 and 1

3/26/2018 ISD 2
Quality and Reliability

 Quality of a device is the degree of conformance to applicable

specification and workmanship standards

 Quality is associated with manufacturing where as reliability is primarily

associated with design

 Reliability is the ability of unit to maintain its quality under specific

condition

3/26/2018 ISD 3
Failure and Failure Modes

Failure

 Failure is the partial or total loss or change in those properties of a device ( or

a system ) in such a way that its functioning is seriously or completely stopped

 Some components are well define failure - other do not eg bulbs

 Initial failure – Due to manufacturing defects such as poor insulation , bad

assembly

 Random failure -Failure after initial failure generally occurs after long period
of time – Difficult to determine their causes – they may occur due to changes
in working condition / stress
 Over long period the system / unit begin to deteriorate and this region is
called wear out region
3/26/2018 ISD 4
Causes of failure and unreliability
 Poor Design
Use of low rating components

 Manufacturing techniques

 Complexity of equipment
Density of the component increases

 In proper maintenance policies

 Human error
Lack of understanding of equipment/ system , carelessness , poor judgment
skills

3/26/2018 ISD 5
Maintainability and Availability

Maintainability

 Maintainability is defined as the probability that a failed equipment

restored to operable condition in a specified time

Availability

 Availability is another measure of performance of maintained

equipment

 It integrate both reliability and maintainability parameters

 Availability = Uptime / ( Uptime + Downtime)

3/26/2018 ISD 6
Design for Reliability

The essential task of a reliability analysis would be

 Evaluation of system reliability and safety characteristics

 Comparison of specific characteristics of alternative designs

objectively, and

 Location of weak spots ( or sub systems ) in the design and

estimation of their contribution to the system unreliability

Above consideration need a thorough reliability analysis of the

system at the design step itself

3/26/2018 ISD 7
 Reliability analysis tools and aids

 A concept and procedure for estimating system reliability and

comparing alternative design

 A set of generally applicable mathematical models and

 Efficient computer programmes to evaluate reliability models

numerically.
Quantitative analysis usually starts from the physical model
i.e. a description of the functional relationship between various
subsystems and components and the expected failure
mechanism for which mathematical models are developed.

3/26/2018 ISD 8
Component reliability and hazard rate

 Failure of a part or component may lead to the failure of the

whole system.
 Each component contributes system reliability.

Component Failure Model

 From the basic failure rates & working stresses using stress
Model.
 Form the part failure data obtained either from life tests or
failure reports of customer.

3/26/2018 ISD 9
Contd…
 Suppose no identical components are subject to a design
operating condition test. During time interval of time (t-Δt, t)
we observed nf(t) failed components & ns(t) are surviving
components then

 since reliability is defined as the cumulative probability

function of success then the reliability R(t) is

 Surviving component
 Failed component
 Identical component
3/26/2018 ISD 10
 Plots of fe(t) &he(t)

3/26/2018 ISD 11
 Plots of Re(t) &Fe(t)
3/26/2018 ISD 12
Reliability function

 T is random variable denoting the time of failure

 The cumulative distribution function of failure F(t) is the

complement of R(t) i.e.
R(t) + F(t) = 1
R(t) = 1- F(t)
 Taking derivative on both side

 hence probability of failure of a component in a given time

interval of time t1, t2 in term of reliability function as

3/26/2018 ISD 13
Contd…
 Hence failure per unit time occurs can be calculated as no
failure occur prior to t1

if we replace t1 by t & t2 by (t+∆t) then

n
Thus hazard f is defined as the limit of failure rate on ∆t
approaches zero

3/26/2018 ISD 14
Mean time to failure

 This parameter will be assumed to be same for all components

which are identical in the design and operate under identical
conditions.

 If we have life-tests information on a population of N items

with failure times t1, t2 , … tn then the MTTF is defined as

3/26/2018 ISD 15
Problem
A manufacturer of light bulb is interested in estimating the
mean life of the bulbs . 200 bulbs are subject to reliability test.
The bulbs are observed & the failure in 1000 hour intervals
are
Timerecorded.
Failure in
interval interval - Plot failure density function
0-1000
estimated 100 fe(t)
1001-2000 40 - The hazard rate function
2001-3000 20 estimated he(t)
3001-4000 15 - The cumulative probability
estimated function Fe(t)
4001-5000 10
- Reliability function Re(t)
5001-6000 8

6001-7000 7

200
3/26/2018 ISD 16
 &
 For time interval 0-1000 hrs

3/26/2018 ISD 17
Time interval 1001-2001 hrs

Calculations of reliability & unreliability

Time interval 0-1000 hrs :

Unreliability

Time interval 1001-2001 hrs:

3/26/2018 ISD 18
 The above example shows the hazard rate function is constant
for a period of time then linearly increases with time

 In other situation the hazard rate function may be decreasing,

const. or increasing & the rate at which the function decreases
or increases may be constant, linear, polynomial or
exponential with time

3/26/2018 ISD 19
Hazard function
 The hazard function or hazard rate h(t) is the conditional
probability of failure in the interval t to (t+dt) given there was
no failure at ‘t’ is expressed as

 It is also referred as the instantaneous failure rate

3/26/2018 ISD 20
 Consider a population of identical component N & place it in
operation at time T=0.

 The sample will experience a high failure rate at the beginning

of the operation time due to weak or sub standard components,
manufacturing imperfections, design errors, installation
defects.

 The early failure can be minimized by increasing the burn in

period of system or by manufacturing process & by improving
the quality control of the products.
Time T1 represents the end of early failure region

3/26/2018 ISD 21
 At the end of early failure rate region, the failure rate
eventually reach to constant value.

 During constant rate failure, the failure rate will

eventually reach a constant value . During constant failure
rate region (betn. T1 &T2). The failure do not follow the
predictable pattern but occur at random due to changes in
applied load

 The third & final region of failure rate curve is the wear
out region which start at T2 . The beginning of the wear
out region starts when the failure rate starts to increase
significantly

3/26/2018 ISD 22
 Hazard rate is also referred to as the instantaneous failure rate

 Hazard rate is important to system designers, engineers and

repair and maintenance group.

 Is important to estimate time to failure, repair policy, available

of the system

3/26/2018 ISD 23
Constant hazard
 Many electronic components such as transistors, capacitors,
resistors, integrated circuits exhibit constant failure rate during
their lifetime.

 The early failure region (104 hours) usually reduce by

performing burn in of these components.

 Burn in is performed by subjecting components stress slightly

higher than the expected operating stress for a short period.

3/26/2018 ISD 24
 The constant hazard rate function is expressed as
h(t)= λ
Where λ is constant.
 Time of failure distribution is exponential with parameter λ
then the probability density function f(t) can be obtained as
f(t)= λ e-t
& F(t) cumulative failure probability fn
F(t)= 1- e-λt
The reliability function R(t) = 1 - F(t) = e-λt
Also

3/26/2018 ISD 25
problem:-
A manufacture performers are operating life test (OLT)
on ceramic capacitors & find that they exhibits constant failure
rate ( used interchangeably with hazard rate) with a value of
3×10-8 failure per hour.
what is the reliability of a capacitor after one year(104Hrs)
& in order to accept a large shipment of these capacitors, the
user decided to run a test for 5000 hours on a sample of 2000
capacitors. How many capacitors are expected to fail during
test?

3/26/2018 ISD 26
 Soln.
h(t) = 3×10-8 failure per hour
h(t) = λ
-λt -(3×10 -8) t
R(t) = e = e
-8
R(104) = e-3×10 t = 0.99970
n0 = no. of capacitors under test
ns = expected number of failed capacitors during test

3/26/2018 ISD 27
Linearly Increasing Hazard

• A component exhibits an increasing hazard rate when it either

experiences wear out r when it is subjected to deteriorating
condition. Most mechanical components such as rotary shafts,
valves and cams exhibit linearly increasing hazard rate. Few
electrical components such as relays exhibits linearly
increasing hazard rate. The hazard rate function is expressed as

Where λ is constant. The probability density function f(t) is

&

3/26/2018 ISD 28
 The reliability function R(t) is

Rolling resistance is a measure of the energy lost by a tire

under load when it resists the force opposing its direction of
travel. In a typical car travelling a sixty miles per hour about
20% of engine power is used to overcome the rolling
resistance of the tires. A tire manufacturer introduces a new
material that when added to the rubber compound,
significantly improves the tire rolling resistance but increases
the wear rate of the tread. Analysis of a laboratory test of 150
tires shows that the failure rate of the new tire is linearly
increasing with time (in hours). It is expressed as

Determine the reliability of tire after one year of use. What I

mean time to replace the tire.

3/26/2018 ISD 29
System Reliability Model

 Consider a system having a total of n components. If

functional diagram suggests that the successful operation of
system depends on the proper operation of all n components.

IN 1 2 n OUT

 A series system consists of n component or n subsystem in

series.
 A failure of any component results in the failure of the entire
system.
 Flash li

3/26/2018 ISD 30
• Xi = the ith unit in operator
• Xi = failure of the ith unit
• P(Xi) = probability that ith unit is operational
• P(Xi) = probability that ith unit is not operational (failed)
• R is reliability of the system
• Pf is unreliability of the system Pf = 1 - R
• Reliability of the system can be expressed as
R = P (x1, x2, x3…..xn)
Or
R = P(x1) P (x2/x1) P (x3/ x1x2) …. P(xn / x1x2x3…xn-1) …. 1

3/26/2018 ISD 31
• The conditional probability in eqn. (1) represents the failure
mechanism of a component affects other components failure
rates. Typical example is heat dessipation from the failing
component.
• If the component failure are independent then we can say that
R = P(x1) P (x2) P (x3) …. P(xn)
or
…. 2

• Alternatively the reliability of the system can be determined by

computing the probability of the system failure.
…. 3
Where ‘+’ means union of events.
3/26/2018 ISD 32
• From the basic law of probability of either event A or B
occurring is P(A+B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(AB) …. 4
• Following eqn 4, eqn 3 becomes

…..5

• Hence reliability of system R=1- Pf

• Hence it should be noted that the reliability of a series system
is always less than or equal to that of the component with
lowest reliability

3/26/2018 ISD 33
• Consider the series system that consists of three components &
the probabilities of that components 1, 2, 3 being operational
are 0.9, 0.8, 0.75 resp. Estimate the reliability of the system.

Alternatively

3/26/2018 ISD 34
• R=1- Pf
= 1- 0.46
= 0.54
Parallel system
 In parallel system if one path fails the still it allows the
remaining paths to perform properly.
 Thus the reliability of a parallel system is the probability that
any one path is operational.
unit1

n
3/26/2018 ISD 35
• R = P (x1 +x2 + x3 +…. +xn)
Where ‘+’ is union of events
Or

Alternatively

Or 1
Again if the components are independent then eq 1 becomes

3/26/2018 ISD 36
• If the components are identical then the reliability of the
system
R= 1- (1-P)n
Where P is probability that component is operational

3/26/2018 ISD 37
• Problem.
• Consider a system that consists of 3 components in parallel.
The probability of the 3 components being operational are 0.9,
0.8, 0.75. Determine the reliability of a system

3/26/2018 ISD 38
• Parallel series
1
1 2 i n
path1

2
1 2 i n

m
1 2 i n
Path m

3/26/2018 ISD 39
 m parallel path each path has n units connected in series.
 Let P(xij) be the reliability of component j (j= 1, 2, 3 …n) in
path i(i=1, 2, 3…m)&
 Xij be an indicator that component j in path i is operational
 The reliability of path I is
i = 1, 2, …m
j = 1, 2, …n
 The reliability of path i is Pi` & the reliability of the system is

Or

3/26/2018 ISD 40
If all the components are identical and the reliability of
single unit is p then the reliability of system become,
R=1-(1-pn)m
Series-Parallel:
A series parallel system consist of n subsystem in series
with m units in parallel,

1 1 1 1

2 2 2
2

i i i i

m m m m

3/26/2018 ISD 41
 Where i= 1,2,3………n
j= 1,2,3……..m
& P(xij) is probability that component j in subsystem I is
operational.
 Where all components are identical & reliability of single
component is p then reliability of series-parallel system
become,
R= [1-(1-p)m]n
 In general series-parallel have higher reliability than parallel
series when both are equal number of system .

3/26/2018 ISD 42
• Given six identical unit each having a reliability of 0.85,
determine the reliability of three system resulting from the
arrangements of unit in parallel-series, series-parallel, & mixed
parallel configuration
Soln.
1. Parallel-series
R=1-(1-Pn)m where m=2, n=3
= 1-(1-0.853)2 =0.8511
2. Series-parallel
R = 1-(1-0.852)3 = 0.934007
3. Mixed parallel
R = 1-(1-(0.85)2)2 [1-(1-0.85)2]
= 0.924726
3/26/2018 ISD 43
Redundancy
Redundancy is defined as the use of additional
components or units beyond the number actually required for
satisfactory operation of a system for the purpose of improving
the reliability.
 For series system has no redundancy since failure of
component causes failure of entire system.
 Two types of redundancy
1. Active
2. Inactive
 In active redundancy all redundancy components are in
operation & are sharing the load with main unit.
 Under non active standby, the redundancy components do not
share any amount of load with the main components & they
are operating only one or more component fails.
3/26/2018 ISD 44