Public Opinion and Public Opinion Polling

Author(s): Herbert Blumer

Source: American Sociological Review, Vol. 13, No. 5 (Oct., 1948), pp. 542-549
Published by: American Sociological Association
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2087146
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 PUBLIC OPINION AND PUBLIC OPINION POLLING*
HERBERT BLUMER
of Chicago
University

T HIS paper presentssome observations can be seenthrough threeobservations.First,

on publicopinionand on publicopin- thereis no effort, seemingly,to tryto identify
ion pollingas currently performed. It or to isolatepublicopinionas an object; we
is hopedthattheseobservations willprovoke are not givenany criteriawhichcharacterize
the discussionforwhich,I understand, this or distinguishpublicopinionand thuswe are
meetinghas beenarranged.The observations not able to say that a given empiricalin-
are not along the line of what seems to be stancefallswithintheclass of publicopinion
the chiefpreoccupation of studentsof pub- and some otherempiricalinstancefallsout-
lic opinionpolling,to wit, the internalim- side of the class of public opinion.Second,
provementof theirtechnique.Instead, the thereis an absence,as faras I can determine,
-observations are designedto inviteattention of using specificstudies to test a general
to whetherpublic opinionpollingactually propositionabout public opinion; this sug-
dealswithpublicopinion. gests that the studentsare not studyinga
The firstobservationswhich I wish to genericobject.This suggestionis supported
make are in the natureof a prelude.They by thethirdobservation-apaucity,ifnota
come froma merelogicalscrutinyof public completeabsence, of generalizationsabout
opinionpollingas an alleged formof scien- public opinion despite the voluminous
tificinvestigation. What I note is the in- amountof pollingstudiesof publicopinion.
ability of public opinionpollingto isolate It mustbe concluded,in my judgment,that
"public opinion"as an abstractor generic currentpublic opinionpollinghas not suc-
conceptwhichcould therebybecomethe fo- ceededin isolatingpublicopinionas a generic
cal point for the formationof a system object of study.
of propositions.It would seem needlessto It may be arguedthat the isolationof a
pointout thatin an avowedscientific enter- genericobject,especiallyin therealmof hu-
prise seekingto study a class of empirical manbehavior,is a goal ratherthanan initial
itemsand to developa seriesof generaliza- point of departure-and that consequently
tionsabout thatclass it is necessaryto iden- the-present inabilityto identifypublicopin-
tifytheclass. Such identification enablesdis- ion as a genericobjectis notdamningto cur-
crimination betweenthe instanceswhichfall rentpublic opinionpolling.This should be
withinthe class and thosewhichdo not. In admitted.However,whatimpresses me is the
thismanner,thegenericcharacterof theob- apparentabsenceof effort or sincereinterest
ject of studybecomesdelineated.Whenthe on thepartofstudentsofpublicopinionpoll-
genericobject of studyis distinguishable, it ing to move in the directionof identifying
becomespossibleto focusstudyon thatob- the object whichtheyare supposedlyseek-
ject and thus to learn progressively more ingto study,to record,and to measure.I be-
about thatobject.In thisway thegroundis lieve it is fair to say that those tryingto
preparedfor cumulativegeneralizationsor study public opinion by polling are so
propositions relativeto thegenericobjectof weddedto theirtechniqueand so preoccupied
investigation. withtheimprovement of theirtechniquethat
As faras I can judge,thecurrentstudyof theyshuntaside thevitalquestionofwhether
publicopinionby pollingignoresthe simple theirtechniqueis suitedto thestudyofwhat
logicalpointwhichhas just beenmade.This theyare ostensiblyseekingto study.Their
workis largelymerelymakingapplicationof
*Paper read before the annual meetingof the theirtechnique. Theyare not concernedwith
American Sociological Society held in New York independent analysisof thenatureof public
City,December28-30, I947. opinionin orderto judge whetherthe ap-
542
 PUBLIC OPINION AND PUBLIC OPINION POLLING 543
plicationof theirtechniquefitsthatnature. and to questionsof whethertheirtechnique
A fewwordsare in orderhereon an ap- is suited to this functionalnature.In this
proach that consciouslyexcuses itselffrom paperI intendto judgethesuitability ofpub-
any consideration of such a problem.I refer lic opinionpollingas a means of studying
to the narrowoperationalistpositionthat public opinion.This shall be done fromthe
publicopinionconsistsof what public opin- standpointof whatwe knowof publicopin-
ion polls poll. Here, curiously,the findings ion in oursociety.
resultingfroman operation,or use of an in- Admittedly, we do not knowa greatdeal
strument,are regardedas constituting the about public opinion. However,we know
object of studyinsteadof being some con- something.We know enough about public
tributory additionto knowledge of theobject opinionfromempiricalobservationsto form
of study.The operationceases to be a guided a fewreasonablyreliablejudgments aboutits
procedureon behalfof an objectof inquiry; natureand modeof functioning. In addition,
insteadtheoperationdetermines intrinsically we can make some reasonablysecureinfer-
its own objective.I do not care to consider encesabout thestructure and functioning of
here the profoundlogical and psychological our society and about collectivebehavior
difficultiesthat attendthe effortto develop withinour society.This combinedbody of
systematicknowledgethrougha procedure knowledgederivedpartly fromdirectem-
whichis not a formof directedinquiry.All piricalobservationand partlyfromreason-
thatI wishto noteis thattheresultsof nar- able inferencecan serve appropriatelyas
row operationalism,as above specified, meansof judgingand assessingcurrentpub-
merelyleave or raisethequestionofwhatthe lic opinionpollingas a device forstudying
resultsmean.Not havinga conceptualpoint public opinion.
of reference the resultsare merelydisparate Indeed, the featuresthat I wish to note
findings.It is logicallypossible,of course,to about public opinionand its settingare so
use such findings to developa conceptualiza- obvious and commonplacethat I almost
tion.I failto see anything beingdonein this blush to call themto the attentionof this
directionby thosewho subscribeto the nar- audience.I wouldnotdo so wereit notpain-
rowoperationalist positionin theuse ofpub- fullyclearthatthestudentsof current public
lic opinionpolls.Whatis logicallyunpardon- opinionpollingignorethemeitherwittingly
able on the part of thosewho take the nar- or unwittingly in theirwhole researchpro-
row operationalistpositionis for them to cedure.I shall indicateby numberthe fea-
holdeitherwittingly orunwittingly thattheir turesto be noted.
investigations are a studyof public opinion i.) Public opinionmustobviouslybe rec-
as thistermis conceivedin our ordinarydis- ognizedas havingits settingin a societyand
course.Having rejectedas unnecessarythe as beinga functionof thatsocietyin opera-
task of characterizing the object of inquiry tion.This means,patently,thatpublicopin-
forthepurposeofseeingwhether theenquiry iongetsis formfromthesocial framework in
is suitedto theobjectofinquiry,it is gratui- whichit moves,and fromthe social proc-
tous and unwarranted to presumethatafter essesin play in thatframework; also thatthe
all theinquiryis a studyof theobjectwhich functionand role of publicopinionis deter-
one refusesto characterize.Such a formof minedby the part it plays in the operation
tryingto eat one's cake and have it too needs of thesociety.If publicopinionis to be stud-
no further comment. ied in anyrealisticsenseits depictionmustbe
The foregoing seriesoflogicalobservations faithfulto its empiricalcharacter.I do not
has been made merelyto stressthe absence wishto be redundantbut I findit necessary
of consideration of a genericobjectby those to say thatthe empiricalcharacterof public
engaged in public opinionpolling. Appar- opinionis represented by its composition and
ently,it is by virtueof thisabsenceof con- mannerof functioning as a part of a society
siderationthat theyare obtuseto the func- in operation.
tionalnatureof publicopinionin our society 2.) As every sociologistought to know
544 AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW

and as everyintelligent laymandoesknow,a have to makethecrucialdecisionsare almost

societyhas an organization. It is not a mere inevitablyconfronted with the necessityof
aggregationof disparateindividuals.A hu- assessingthe variousinfluences, claims,de-
man societyis composedof diversekindsof mands, urgings, and pressures that are
functional groups.In ourAmericansocietyil- broughtto bear on them.Insofaras theyare
lustrativeinstancesof functional groupsare responsiveand responsibletheyare boundto
a corporation, a trade association,a labor make such an assessmentin the processof
union,an ethnicgroup,a farmers'organiza- arrivingat theirdecisions.Here I want to
tion.To a major extentour total collective make the triteremarkthat in makingtheir
life is made up of the actionsand acts of assessmentsthesekey individualstake into
such groups.These groupsare orientedin accountwhattheyjudge to be worthyof be-
different directionsbecause of special in- ingtakenintoaccount.
terests.These groupsdiffer in termsof their 5.) The above pointsgivea crudebut es-
strategicpositionin thesocietyand in terms sentiallyrealisticpictureofcertainimportant
of opportunitiesto act. Accordingly, they waysin whichour societyoperates.The fifth
differin termsof prestigeand power. As featureI wishto note is thatpublicopinion
functionalgroups,that is to say as groups is formedand expressedin large measure
actingindividually in somecorporateor uni- throughthese ways of societal operation.
tary sense,such groupsnecessarilyhave to This point requiresa littleelaboration.The
have some organization-someleadership, formation ofpublicopinionoccursas a func-
some policy makers,some individualswho tionofa societyin operation.I statethemat-
speak on behalfof thegroup,and someindi- ter in thatway to stressthat the formation
vidualswho take the initiativein actingon of publicopiniondoes not occurthroughan
behalfof thegroup. interactionof disparate individuals who
3.) Such functionalgroups, when they shareequallyin theprocess.Insteadthefor-
act, have to act throughthe channelswhich mationof public opinionreflectsthe func-
are availablein thesociety.If thefateof the tional compositionand organizationof so-
proposedacts dependson thedecisionsof in- ciety.The formation ofpublicopinionoccurs
dividualsor groupswhoare locatedat strate- in large measurethroughthe interaction of
gic pointsin thechannelsof action,thenin- groups.I mean nothingesotericby thislast
fluenceand pressure is brought to bear remark.I merelyreferto thecommonoccur-
directlyor indirectly on such individualsor renceof theleadersor officials ofa functional
groupswhomakethedecisions.I takeit that grouptakinga standon behalfof thegroup
thisrealisticfeatureof the operationof our withreference to an issueand voicingexplic-
Americansocietyrequireslittleexplication. itlyor implicitly thisstandon behalfof the
If an action embodyingthe interestsof a group. Much of the interactionthrough
functionalgroupsuch as a farmers'organi- whichpublicopinionis formedis through the
ization dependsfor its realizationon deci- clash of thesegroupviewsand positions.In
sionsof Congressmen or a bureauor a set of no sensedoessucha groupviewimplythatit
administrators, thenefforts on behalfof that is held in equal mannerand in equal degree
actionwill seek to influencesuch Congress- by all of themembersof thegroup.Many of
men,bureau,or administrators. Since in ev- the membersof the groupmay subscribeto
erysocietyto somedegree,and in ourAmeri- theviewwithoutunderstanding it,manymay
can societyto a largedegree,thereare indi- be indifferent about it, manymay sharethe
viduals, committees,boards, legislators, view only in part, and manymay actually
administrators, and executiveswho have to not sharetheviewbut stillnot rebelagainst
make the decisionsaffecting the outcomeof therepresentatives of thegroupwho express
the actions of functionalgroups,such key theview.Nevertheless theview,as indicated,
people become the object of directand in- may be introduced intothe forumof discus-
directinfluence or pressure. sion as the view of the groupand may be
4. The key individualsreferredto who reactedto as such.To bringout thispointin
 PUBLIC OPINION AND PUBLIC OPINION POLLING 545

anotherway, one need merelynote that in I wish to note is that in any realisticsense
the moreoutstanding expressions of viewon publicopinionconsistsof thepatternof the
an issue,theindividualsalmostalwaysspeak diverseviewsand positionson theissue that
eitherexplicitlyor implicitlyas representa- come to the individualswho have to act in
tives of groups.I would repeatthat in any responseto the public opinion.Public opin-
realistic sense the diversifiedinteraction ion whichwas a meredisplay,or whichwas
whichgivesriseto publicopinionis in large terminalin its very expression,or which
measurebetweenfunctionalgroupsand not never came to the attentionof those who
merelybetweendisparateindividuals. have to act on public opinionwouldbe im-
I thinkthatit is also veryclearthatin the potentand meaningless as faras affectingthe
processof formingpublic opinion,individ- action or operationof societyis concerned.
uals are not alike in influencenorare groups Insofaras public opinionis effective on so-
that are equal numericallyin membership cietal actionit becomesso onlyby entering
alikein influence.This is so evidentas notto intothepurviewof whoever,like legislators,
requireelaboration.It is enoughmerelyto executives,administrators, and policymak-
point out that differences in prestige,posi- ers, have to act on public opinion.To me
tion,and influencethat characterizegroups this propositionis self-evident.If it be
and individualsin the functionalorganiza- granted,the characterof public opinionin
tionsofa societyare broughtintoplayin the terms of meaningfuloperation must be
formation of publicopinion. soughtin the array of views and positions
The pictureof a seriesof groupsand indi- whichenterinto the consideration of those
vidualsof significantly differentinfluence in- who have to take action on public opinion.
teractingin the formation of public opinion It is importantto note thattheindividual
holds trueequallywell withreference to the whohas to act on publicopinionhas to assess
expressionof public opinion.By expression the public opinionas it comesto his atten-
of publicopinionI meanbringing thepublic tion,becauseof theveryfactthatthispublic
opinionto bear on thosewho have to act in opinioncomesto himin the formof diverse
responseto publicopinion.This expression is viewsand usuallyopposedviews.Insofaras
not in the formof a parade or arrayof the he is responsiveto publicopinionhe has to
views of disparateindividuals,in an open weighthe respectiveviews.How thisassess-
forum.Wherethe viewsare voiced in open mentis made is an obscurematter.But one
forumtheyare likely,as has been indicated, generalization eventhoughtrite,can be made
to be in one way or anothertheexpression of safely,to wit,thatthe individualtakesinto
groupviews.But in additionto the voicing accountdifferent viewsonlyto theextentto
ofviewsin theopen forum, theexpressionof whichsuch views count. And views count
public opinionis in the formof directin- prettymuch on the basis of how the indi-
fluenceon thosewho are to act in response vidual judges the "backing" of the views
to publicopinion.Throughsuchmeansas let- and the implicationof the backing. It is
ters,telegrams, petitions,resolutions,lobbies, in thissense,again,that the organization of
delegations,and personalmeetingsinterested thesocietywithits differentiation of prestige
groupsand individualsbringtheirviewsand and power,entersintothe characterof pub-
positionsto bear on the key personswho lic opinion.As was explainedabove,thekey
have to make the decisions.I am not con- personwho has to act on public opinionis
cernedwithwhether suchformsofexpressing usuallysubjectto a varietyof presentations,
publicopinionshouldoccur;I merelywishto importunities, demands,criticisms, and sug-
emphasizethatin any realisticconsideration gestionsthat come to him throughthe var-
of publicopinionit mustbe recognizedthat ious channelsin thecommunicative structure
such meansof expressing public opiniondo of society.Unless one wishesto conjurein
occur.A societywhichhas to act willuse the his imaginationa very fancifulsocietyhe
channelsof actionthatit has in its structure. mustadmitthattheservantofpublicopinion
6.) The last featureofpublicopinionthat is forcedto make an assessmentof the ex-
546 AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW

pressionsof publicopinionthatcome to his the samplethe social nitchof theindividual

attentionand thatin thisassessmentconsid- in that portionof the social structurein
erationis givento expressions onlyto theex- whichthe public opinionis being formed.
tent to whichthey are judged to "count." Such information is not given in the con-
The foregoing six featuresare, I believe, ventionalitemsof age, sex, occupation,eco-
tritebut faithfulpointsaboutpublicopinion nomic status, educational attainmentor
as it functionsin oursociety.Theymayserve class status.These are rarelythe marksof
as a backgroundfortheexamination of pub- significant functionalpositionin the forma-
lic opinionpolling.I may state here thatin tion of public opinionon a givenissue. We
this discussionI am not concerning myself do not know fromthe conventional kind of
withthe problemof whetherthe individual sample or fromthe responsesof the inter-
opinionsone gets throughthe pollinginter- vieweewhat influence, if any,he has in the
vieware reasonablyvalid. My discussion,in- formationor expressionof public opinion.
stead,is concernedwiththe questionof the We do not knowwhetherhe has a following
value of poll findings even if one makesthe or whetherhe doesn't. We do not know
dubiousassumptionthattheindividualopin- whetheror not he is speakingon behalfof a
ionsthatare securedare valid. groupor groupsor whetherhe even belongs
In myjudgmenttheinherentdeficiency of to functionalgroupsinterested in the issue.
publicopinionpolling,certainlyas currently If he does, perchance,expressthe views of
done,is containedin its samplingprocedure. some such functionalgroup,we don'tknow
Its currentsamplingprocedureforcesa treat- whetheror not thatgroupis busilyat work
mentof societyas if societywere only an in thechannelsofsocietyto givevigorousex-
aggregationof disparateindividuals.Public pressionto theirpoint of view. We do not
opinion,in turn,is regardedas beinga quan- even know whetherhe, as an individual,is
titativedistribution of individualopinions. translatinghis opinion into what I have
This way of treatingsocietyand thisway of termedpreviously"effective publicopinion."
viewingpublic opinionmustbe regardedas In short,we know essentiallynothingof
markedlyunrealistic.The best way I can theindividualin thesamplewithreference to
bringthis out is by makingcontinuousref- thesignificance ofhimor ofhisopinionin the
erence to the commonsense empiricalob- publicopinionthatis beingbuiltup orwhich
servationsof publicopinionthatwerenoted is expressing itselffunctionally in the opera-
previously.We do not knowat all whether tionof society.We do notknowwhetherthe
individualsin thesamplerepresent thatpor- individualhas thepositionof an archbishop
tionof structured societythat is participat- or an itinerantlaborer; whetherhe belongs
ing in the formation of publicopinionon a to a powerfulgrouptakinga vigorousstand
given issue. That the sample will catch a on the issue or whetherhe is a detachedre-
numberof them,or even a largernumberof cluse with no membershipin a functional
them,is verylikely.But, as faras I am able group; whetherhe is bringinghis opinionto
to determine, thereis no wayin current pub- bear in some fashionat strategicpoints in
lic opinionpollingto knowmuchabout this. the operationof societyor whetherit is iso-
Certainlythemerefactthatthe interviewee lated and sociallyimpotent. We do notknow
eithergivesor does notgivean opiniondoes whatrole,if any,any individualin thesam-
nottellyouwhether he is participatingin the ple playsin theformation of thepublicopin-
formationof public opinionas it is being ion on whichhe is questioned,and we do not
built up functionally in the society.More knowwhatpart,if any,his opinionas given
important, assumingthatthesamplecatches has in the functionalpublic opinionwhich
the individualswho are participating in the existswithreference to the issue.
formationof the given public opinion,no What has just been said withreference to
information is given of theirpart in this theindividualcomponent of thepublicopin-
process.One cannotidentify fromthesample ion poll appliescollectively to the totalfind-
or fromthe replies of those constituting ings.The collectivefindings have no assur-
 PUBLIC OPINION AND PUBLIC OPINION POLLING 547
ance of depictingpublic opinionon a given currentpublicopinionpollinggivesan inac-
issuebecausethesefindings ignoretheframe- curateand unrealistic pictureof publicopin-
work and the functionaloperationof the ionbecauseofthefailureto catchopinionsas
publicopinion.If thisis notclear fromwhat theyare organizedand as theyoperatein a
has alreadybeen said, I wouldlike to point functioning society.
out theenormousdifficulty thatoccurswhen What I have said will appear to manyas
one seeks to assess the findings of a public distinctly invalidon the groundthatpublic
opinionpoll in termsof the organizationof opinionpollinghas demonstrated thatit can
societywithwhichan administrator, legisla- and does detectpublicopinionfaithfully, by
tor,executive,or similarly placed personhas virtueof its markedsuccess in predicting
to contend.As I have statedearliersuch an electionreturns.This contention needsto be
individualwho is presumablyresponsiveto investigatedcarefully,particularlysince in
publicopinionhas to assesspublicopinionas mostcirclespolling,whereverapplied,is re-
it comesto his attention in termsofthefunc- garded as intrinsically valid because of its
tionalorganization of societyto whichhe is ratherspectacularsuccessin predicting elec-
responsive.He has to view that societyin tions.WhatI thinkneedsto be notedis that
termsof groupsof divergentinfluence;in thecastingofballotsis distinctly an actionof
termsof organizations withdifferent degrees separateindividualswhereina ballotcast by
ofpower;in termsofindividualswithfollow- one individualhas exactlythe same weight
ings; in termsof indifferent people-all, in as a ballotcastby anotherindividual.In this
otherwords,in termsofwhatand whocounts propersense,and in thesenseof real action,
in his part of the social world.This typeof votersconstitutea populationof disparate
assessment whichis called forin theinstance individuals,each of whomhas equal weight
of an organizedsocietyin operationis well- to the others.Consequently,the sampling
nigh impossibleto make in the case of the procedurewhichis based on a populationof
findings of publicopinionpolls. We are un- disparateindividualsis eminentlysuited to
able to answersuch questionsas the follow- securinga pictureofwhatthevotingis likely
ing: how muchpowerand influenceis pos- to be. However,to regardthe successfuluse
sessedby thosewhohave thefavorableopin- of pollingin this area as proofof its auto-
ionor theunfavorable opinion;whoare these maticvaliditywhenappliedto an area where
peoplewhohave theopinion;whomdo they people do not act as equally weighteddis-
represent;howwellorganizedare they;what parate individualsbegs the very question
groupsdo theybelong to that are stirring underconsideration. I wouldrepeatthatthe
aroundon the scene and that are likelyto formationand expressionof public opinion
continueto do so; are thosepeoplewhohave givingrise to effective public opinionis not
thegivenopinionverymuchconcerned about an actionof a populationof disparateindi-
theiropinion;are theygoingto getbusyand vidualshavingequal weightbut is a function
do something about it; are theygoingto get of a structured society,differentiatedinto a
vociferous,militant,and troublesome;are networkof different kindsof groupsand in-
they in the positionto influencepowerful dividualshavingdifferential weightand in-
groupsand individualswhoare known;does fluenceand occupyingdifferent strategicpo-
theopinionrepresent a studiedpolicyof sig- sitions.Accordingly, to mymind,thesuccess
nificantorganizations whichwill persistand attendingpollingin the predictionof elec-
whoare likelyto remember; is theopinionan tions gives no validityto the methodas a
ephemeralor momentary view whichpeople means of studying,recordingor measuring
will quicklyforget?These samplequestions public opinionas it formsand functionsin
showhowmarkedly difficult it is to assessthe our society.
resultsof public opinionpolling fromthe There is a very importantcontentionin
standpoint ofthethingsthathave to be taken this connectionwhichhas to be considered.
into accountin workingin an organizedso- The contention can be statedas follows:
ciety.This difficulty, in turn,signifiesthat An electionby publicballotis in itselfan
548 AMERICAN SOCIOLOGICAL REVIEW
expression of publicopinion-and,furthermore, here.It is sufficient to note thatif one seeks
it is effectiveand decisiveexpression of public to justifypollingas a methodof studying
opinion.It is,in fact,theultimate expression of publicopinionon thegroundthatthecompo-
publicopinionandthusit represents theproper sitionof publicopinionoughtto be different
normof theexpression ofpublicopinion. In the than what it is, he is not establishingthe
electionbyballoteachvoter,in accordance with
thebasic principles of democracy, has his say validityof the methodforthe studyof the
as a citizenandhas equalworthto everyother empiricalworldas it is. Instead,he is hang-
citizenin castinghisballot.If election byballot ingon thecoat-tailsofa dubiousproposalfor
be recognized as the genuinereferendum in socialreform.*
whichtrue public opinioncomes to expres- In thispaperI havepresentedcriticisms of
sion, thenthe preeminence of currentpublic "publicopinionpolling"as a methodforthe
opinionpollingas thedeviceforrecording and recordingand measurement of public opin-
measuring publicopinion is established. For,pub- ion. These criticismshave centeredaround
lic opinionpollingwithits current formof sam- the distortionthat stemsfromthe use of a
plinghas demonstrated thatit canpredictrelia- samplein the formof an aggregation of dis-
bly and effectively the resultsof the election. parate individuals
Accordingly, having equal weight.
publicopinion polling, initself,
can
be usedas a typeof referendum to recordand These criticisms shouldnotbe misinterpreted
measurethetrueopinionof thepublicon issues to meanthatsucha samplingprocedureis in-
in theinstances of whichthepublicdoesnotgo validwherever appliedor thatwherever poll-
to theelectionpolls.Thus,publicopinionpol- ing makesuse of such a samplingprocedure
lingyieldsa morereliableand accuratepicture such pollingis intrinsically invalid.Clearly,
of publicopinionthanis represented by the the criticismapplies whensuch a sampling
confused, indefinite,slanted,and favor-riddenprocedureis used to studya matterwhose
expressions of opinionthatcomeordinarily to composition is an organization of interacting
the legislator, administrator, or executivewho partsinsteadof beingmerelyan aggregation
has to acton publicopinion. The publicopinion
polltellsus wherepeoplestand.It givesus the ofindividuals. Wherethematterwhichoneis
voxpopUl. studying is an aggregation ofindividualunits
then the applicationof the samplingpro-
My remarkswithreference to thisconten- cedurespokenof is clearlyin order.I make
tion will be brief.It should be evidenton thisbanal statement onlyto call attentionto
analysisthatthecontention is actuallya nor- the factthatthereare obviouslymanymat-
mativeplea and not a defenseof pollingas ters about humanbeingsand theirconduct
a methodof studyof publicopinionas such thathave just thischaracterof beingan ag-
publicopinionfunctions in our society.The gregationof individualsor a congeriesof in-
contentionproposesthat public opinionbe dividualactions.Many demographic matters
construedin a particularway, to wit, that are of thisnature.Also,manyactionsof hu-
publicopinionoughtto be an aggregation of man beingsin a societyare of this nature
theopinionsofa crosssectionof thepopula- -such as castingballots,purchasingtooth
tionratherthanwhatit is in theactual func-
* I referto such a programas dubious because
tioningof society.To my mindit is highly
I believe the much needed improvementof public
questionablewhetherin the day by day op- opinion in our society should be in the process by
erationofoursocietypublicopinionoughtto which public opinion organicallyfunctions,i.e., by
be of thenaturepositedby thepublicopinion arousing, organizing,and effectivelydirectingthe
poll. Many appropriatequestionscould be opinion of people who appreciate that they have
raisedabout how and to what extentpublic an interestin a given issue. A reliance,instead, on
a mere "referendum"by an undifferentiated mass,
opinionis expressedat theelectionpolls,and, havinggreatsegmentsof indifference and non-partici-
moreimportant, whether it wouldbe possible pation,is unlikelyto offera desirablepublic opinion.
or even advisableforpublic opinion,in the At the best, in my judgment,such a "referendum"
formof an aggregationof equally weighted could operateas a correctivesupplementand not as
individualopinions,to function a substitute. The important question concerning
meaningfullythe directionsin which public opinion mightsecure
in a societywitha diversified organization. its much needed improvementis, of course,outside
However,such questionsneed not be raised of the scope of this paper.
 PUBLIC OPINION AND PUBLIC OPINION POLLING 549
paste, going to motionpictureshows, and on in thelatterstages,we have to dip in here
readingnewspapers.Such actions,whichI and there.The problemsof whereto dip in,
liketo thinkofas mass actionsofindividuals how to dip in, and how far to dip in are
in contrastto organizedactions of groups, whatI have in mindin speakingof sampling
lend themselvesreadilyto the typeof sam- an organicstructure.
plingthatwe have in currentpublicopinion I suppose,as one ofmyfriends has pointed
polling.In fact,it is the existenceof such out,thattheanswerto theproblemrequires
massactionsofindividuals whichexplains,in theformulation of a model.We haveno such
myjudgment,thesuccessful use in consumer modelin the instanceof publicopinionas it
researchof samplingsuch as is employedin operatesin oursociety.My ownhunchis that
publicopinionpolling.WhatI findquestion- sucha modelshouldbe constructed, if it can
able,and whatthispapercriticizes, is theuse be at all,by working backwardsinsteadofby
of such samplingwith its implicitimagery workingforward. That is, we oughtto begin
and logicin thestudyofa matterwhich,like withthosewhohave to act on publicopinion
the processof publicopinion,functions as a and move backwardsalong the lines of the
movingorganization of interconnected parts. various expressionsof public opinion that
The last item I wish to considerbriefly cometo theirattention, tracingtheseexpres-
refersto the interesting and seeminglybaf- sions backwardthroughtheirown various
flingquestionof howone shouldor can sam- channelsand in doing so, notingthe chief
ple an object matterwhichis a complicated channels,the key pointsof importance, and
systemof interacting parts,havingdifferen- the way in whichany givenexpressionhas
tial influencein the totaloperation.Perhaps come to developand pick up an organized
the questionin itselfis absurd.At various backingout of whatinitiallymusthave been
times I have asked differentexperts in a relativelyamorphouscondition.Perhaps,
samplinghow one wouldsamplean organic such a model, if it could be workedout,
structure.Witha singleexceptiontheseindi- would allow the developmentof a realistic
vidualslookedat me askanceas if theques- methodof samplingin place of what seems
tion wereidiotic.But the problem,I think, to me to be the highlyartificialmethodof
remainseven thoughI find it difficult to samplingused in currentpublicopinionpoll-
state.In humansociety,particularly in mod- ing.
ernsociety,we are confronted withintricate DISCUSSION
complexesof moving relationswhich are
roughlyrecognizable THEODOREM. NEWCOMB
as systems, eventhough
Universityof Michigan
loose systems.Such a loose systemis too
complicated,too encumberedin detail and ProfessorBlumerhas long been knownas a
too fastmovingto be describedin anyone of formidablecritic,and I am sure thereare many
its given "cycles" of operationadequately otherswho sharedwith me the anticipationof
seeing him turn his battery of high-powered
and faithfully.Yet unlesswe merelywantto gunsupon the practitioners of "public opinion."
speculateabout it we have to dip into it in In my judgment,his guns in this instancehave
somemannerin orderto understandwhatis misfired. This is not to say thatthosewho study
happeningin thegivencycleof operationin attitudesby samplingmethodsare beyondcriti-
whichwe are interested. Thus,usingthepub- cism; even a lessercriticthanProfessorBlumer
lic opinionprocessin our societyas an illus- couldpointto manyshortcomings on theirpart.
trationwe are able to make a roughcharac- It may trulybe said of all of them,probably,
terizationas to how it functions in the case, thatin one way or anothertheyhave done what
let us say,ofa nationalissue.However,ifwe theyoughtnot to have done and thattheyhave
wantto knowhowit functions in thecase of not done what theyoughtto have done,and in
a givennationalissue, we are at a loss to some of themthereis littlehealthindeed. His
targetwas thusan easy one, and I wantto raise
makean adequatedescription becauseof the the questionof whyit is that he has neverthe-
complexity and quick movement of thecycle less, in my judgement,missedit.
of its operation.So, to knowwhat is going The firstreason,I think,is that he was not
on,particularly to knowwhatis likelyto go quite selectiveenoughin his aim. I wishhe had