Key Changes Migration Trends 1951 PDF

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Key Changes in Migration

Trends since 1951
Rainer Münz
Erste Group
International Organization for Migration (IOM)

Inter-Agency Seminar
Geneva, March 16, 2011
Rainer Münz Page 1 March 16, 2011

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Global migration

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
120 years ago

European expansion: From
settlement to labour migration ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Central
Asia/Siberia
Palestine/Israel
Algeria
Northern and
Southern
America, The
Caribbean
Australia,
New
South Africa Zealand
70
Migration
mn
Europe’s
Europeans
from
answer
Europe
migrated
totorapid
less
to population
overseas’
developeddestinations
growth
peripheries
Indian South-South Emigration
1870-1940 ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
The Caribbean Fiji

East
Africa Malaysia,
Singapore
Mauritius
South Africa
Where did Mahatma

“Reshuffling” Gandhi
of East Indian start
labor his political
within career?
the British Empire
Chinese South-South and North
Emigration 1850-1920 ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
USA,
Canada
South East Asia
Large scale export/import of Chinese labor

R. Münz page 6 March 16, 2011
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
60 years ago

World migration, 1945-1950
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Germany/Austria,
Poland/Ukraine, etc.
India/
China/Taiwan
Pakistan
Palestine/
Israel
More migrants in the global South than in the North

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Today

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
From where do
people come?

This is where people come from…
Proportional map: Stocks of international migrants by ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
country of origin

Top 10 emigration countries*
Absolute number of emigrants, in millions, 2010 ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Number of emigrants, in millions

0 4 8 12
Mexico 11.9
India 11.4
Russian Federation 11.1
China 8.3
Ukraine 6.6
Bangladesh 5.4
Pakistan 4.7
United Kingdom 4.7
Philippines 4.3
Turkey 4.3
Source: World Bank, UNPD. * Only countries with more than 1 million residents

Top 10 emigration countries*
Share of emigrants, in % of resident population, 2010 ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Share of emigrants, in % of resident population

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Albania 45.4%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 38.9%
Jamaica 36.1%
Armenia 28.2%
Trinidad and Tobago 26.7%
Georgia 25.1%
Kazakhstan 23.6%
Macedonia 21.9%
Moldova 21.5%
Portugal 20.8%

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Where do people
go?

… and this is where they go to
Proportional map: Stocks of international migrants by ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
country of destination

Top 10 immigration countries*
Number of foreign-born individuals, in millions, 2010 ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Foreign-born population, in millions

0 15 30 45
United States 42.8
Russian Federation 12.3
Germany 10.8
Saudi Arabia 7.3
Canada 7.2
United Kingdom 7.0
Spain 6.9
France 6.7
Australia 5.5
India 5.4

Top 10 immigration countries*
Share of foreign-born population in % of resident ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
population, 2010
Share of foreign-born population, in % of resident population
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Quatar 86.5%
United Arab Emirates 70.0%
Kuwait 68.8%
Jordan 45.9%
Singapore 40.7%
Israel 40.4%
Oman 28.4%
Saudi Arabia 27.8%
Switzerland 23.2%
New Zealand 22.4%

Magnet societies
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
US, EU27/EEA/CH, Russia, the Gulf + Australia are

home or host to 60% of the world’s migrant population
BUT: 214 million migrants are only 3% of the global

R. Münz population
page 18 March 16, 2011
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
European migration

From emigration to immigration:
The main direction changed only recently ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Immigration minus emigration (= net migration), 1960-2008

400 years of net emigration 25 years of net immigration
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
-1,000,000
Source: Eurostat.

Net migration in Europe 1950-1960
Net migration, annual average rate, per 1.000 ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
inhabitants
below -5%
.
-5% to -2%
-2% to 0%
0 to +2
+2% to +5%
above +5%
Source: Eurostat, UNDP.

BANK AG
inhabitants
below -5%
.
-5% to -2%
-2% to 0%
0 to +2
+2% to +5%
above +5%
Rainer Münz PageDarstellung:

Quelle: UN Population Division 2000; 22 Humboldt-Universität Berlin March 16, 2011
BANK AG
inhabitants
below -5%
.
-5% to -2%
-2% to 0%
0 to +2
+2% to +5%
above +5%

BANK AG
inhabitants
below -5%
.
-5% to -2%
-2% to 0%
0 to +2
+2% to +5%
above +5%

BANK AG
inhabitants
below -5%
.
-5% to -2%
-2% to 0%
0 to +2
+2% to +5%
above +5%

BANK AG
inhabitants
below -5%
.
-5% to -2%
-2% to 0%
0 to +2
+2% to +5%
above +5%

Share of immigrants in Europe
Foreign-born population as % of total population, 2010 ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Source: UNDP.

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Today

Europe’s mobility space (Schengen)
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG

European migration regime by citizenship /
country of origin and destination country ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
EU 2 citizens
.
EU 10 citizens
über -2 bis 0
transitional regime
über 0 bis +2
with exceptions
über +2 bis +5
free access for EU 10 and
partly for EU 2
liberalized regime
EEA+CH

European mobility and migration
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
13 old + 10 new territory

EU member
states residency Bulgaria,
Romania
labor market
citizenship
UK, Non-EU
Ireland Schengen/EEA/
EFTA states (+CH)
Rainer Muenz page 31 Brussels, Nov.19, 2010
Theme park: EU mobility and
citizenship ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Rainer Muenz page 32 Brussels, Nov.19, 2010

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Contribution of
migration and mobility
to Europe’s population

Natural change in EU-27
Births minus deaths, annual average rate, 2004-2008 ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
(per 1.000 inhabitants)
Source: Eurostat 2010.

Net migration in EU-27
Immigration minus emigration, annual average rate, ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
2004-2008 (per 1.000 inhabitants)

Total population increase in EU-27
Natural change plus net migration, annual average ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
rate, 2004-2008 (per 1.000 inhabitants)

Population increase in EU-27 is mainly due
to net migration ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Contribution of net migration and natural change to total population

increase, EU-27, 2008
Net migration
2.5
contributes over 70% to
total population
increase in EU-27
2.0
in millions
1.5
Net migration
~ 72,6%
Population
1.0 increase
0.5
Natural increase
~ 27,4%
0.0

Immigration brings in a much
younger population into EU ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Age structure of population and immigrants in EU-27
Median EU-27: 40.6 years
Median immigrants: 28.4 years

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Contribution of
migration to global
development and
wealth

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Remittances

Remittances amount to over 400
billion US$ globally ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Remittances to emerging markets and total

Remittances 1990-2010e (2011f - 2012f), in billions
500
400
300
200
100
09
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
90
91
92
93
94
95
f
11
12
10
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
20
20
20
Emerging markets World
Source: World Bank, UNPD.

To emerging markets over 300
billion US$ are sent every year ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Remittances to emerging markets, 2010
Source: IFAD.

Remittances are important
contributions to origin countries … ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Top 10 remittance-receiving countries, 2009
Top 10 recipients of migrant Top 10 recipients of migrant

remittances, in US$ billions, 2010e remittances, in % of GDP, 2009
55.0
35%
51.0
28%
25%
23% 23%
22% 22%
19%
17%
16%
22.6
21.3
15.9
11.6 11.1 10.4 10.2 10.0
ho
s
na
um
n
sh
a
s
ce
n
y
al
a
a
ia
o
or
n
oa
ra
ng
ne
di
an
ai
an
ta
ic
no
p
er
an
t
i
ad
do
e
du
Sp
Ch
so
In
Ne
ex
is
ad
i
lg
m
To
uy
g
ba
pp
Sa
Fr
lv
ol
jik
Ni
Le
n
M
er
Be
gl
G
Le
Sa
ili
Ho
M
Ta
G
n
Ph
Ba
El

… and a considerable economic
factor in host countries ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Top 10 remittance-sending countries, 2009
Top 10 senders of migrant remittances, Top 10 senders of migrant remittances,

in US$ billions, 2009 in % of GDP, 2009
48,3
20%
17%
26,0
10%
19,6 9%
18,6 8%
15,9 7% 7%
13,0 12,6
10,6 5% 5%
9,9 4%
8,1
es
ly
n
s
t
g
y
o
n
a
nd
an
a
t
g
ai
a
nd
ai
tio
an
ai
ur
sa
bi
ng
Ita
ve
an
ai
ur
no
bi
at
w
Sp
w
la
ra
bo
hr
la
ra
ra
is
bo
St
di
Ku
To
uy
ba
Ku
er
O
iA
er
er
B
Ba
de
al
iA
m
m
d
G
it z
Le
a-
th
G
M
xe
te
ud
Fe
xe
ud
ne
Sw
Ne
i
Lu
Un
Sa
Lu
Sa
n
ui
ia
G
ss
Ru

40% of global remittances come from
Western and Central Europe ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Remittances from W. and C. Europe, in US$ millions, 2006-2008

18,954
Switzerland* 16,273
14,377
14,976
Germany 13,689
12,454
14,656
Spain 15,183
11,326
12,718
Italy 11,287
8,437
10,922
Luxembourg* 9,280
7,561
8,431
Netherlands 7,830
6,831
5,048
United Kingdom 5,048
4,560
4,776
Norway 3,642
2,620
in US$ millions
4,541
France 4,380
4,217
2008
3,826
Czech Republic 2,625 2007
2,030 2006
3,689
Belgium 3,161
2,698
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000

* Some remittances are related to border residents working in one country during the day but living in
Source: IOM, World Migration Report 2010.
a neighbouring country. These workers are not, strictly speaking, considered to be migrants.

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Education

Regional differences in tertiary
enrolment rates are widening ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Gross enrolment ratio in tertiary education, 1999-2008
Source: OECD.

Why do highly skilled consider to
work abroad? ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Source: Manpower.

Share of tertiary educated people having
migrated into a or another OECD-country
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
<2%
<5%
<10%
<20%
>20%
Source: OECD.

Destinations of highly educated migrants
from Central and Eastern Europe ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
in %
Russia
Latvia
Moldova
Ukraine
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Belarus
Croatia
Czech Republic
Lithuania
Albania
Slovenia
Estonia
Bosnia and Herzegovi
Bulgaria
Slovakia
Serbia and Montenegr
Macedonia
0 20 40 60 80 100
Red: N America Green: EU 15 Blue: other Europe Yellow: Other

Europe attracts much fewer highly
educated migrants than the US ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
15
Non-OECD
OECD origin
10
million
Low
5
High
Low Middle
Middle
High
0
Europe America
Source: OECD.

Brain drain – brain gain
Share of US-immigrants with and without tertiary ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
education, by origin countries
Mexico
Jamaica
Cuba
Bahamas
Canada
China
Iran
Nigeria
India
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
with tertiary graduation without tertiary graduation

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Outlook

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Why do developed
societies need
migrants?

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Labour migration as
answer to labour
force shortages?

Development of labour force and
support ratio – without migration ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Zero migration, constant labour force participation rate
300 100%
84%
80%
238
240
214 60%
52%
40%
180 35% 170
20%
120 0%
2008 2025 2050
Labor force Age group 65+/labor force

Source: Own calculations based on Europop 2008.

Development of labour force and
support ratio – + 50mn migrants ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Migration, constant labour force participation rate
300 100%
80%
238 72%
240 229
60%
207
49%
40%
180 35%
20%
120 0%
2008 2025 2050
Labor force Age group 65+/labor force

Source: Own calculations based on Europop 2008

Guest worker programs in 1960s
and 1970s were a first try ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Permanent
immigrants do not
help to solve the
ageing problem …

Aging
Population by age groups, 1950, 2000 and 2050 ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Source: UN Population Division, The 2008 Revision Population Database.

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
… but migration can

mitigate a mismatch
between supply and
demand for labour
Agriculture, especially harvesting
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG

Health care, nursing
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG

Tourism, hospitality, catering
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG

Construction
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG

Highly skilled
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
This could partly be

achieved by a higher
labour force
participation rate
Compared to US and JP, EU has a
low labour force participation rate ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Labour force participation rate, 1975-2007

Only few countries show labour force
participation rates of above 65% ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Labour force participation rate of age group 15-64, in %, 2007
under 50
50 to 55
55 to 60
60 to 65
65 and more
no data
Source: Eurostat, National Statistical Offices.

Notably youth, women and elderly
have low participation rates ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Labour force participation rate by age and sex, 2009

The elderly is employed in CH and
some Scandinavian countries most ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Employment rate(1) of the elderly (55-64), 2008
(1)
… Employment rates represent employed persons as a percentage of the same age population.
Source: Eurostat 2008. (2) an
… Targets set by the European Council in Lisbon (2000) and Stockholm (2001), to be achieved by 2010.

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Modern alternative:
Temporary and
circular migration

Temporary and circular migration
should be of benefit for all parties ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Flexibility Remittances
Host country Source country

No brain drain
Additional labour force
Vacancies’ fill Labour migrants New ideas
Knowledge Skills New businesses

ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
However: Europe’s
ageing societies cannot
fix their problems just by
recruiting temporary
migrants
ERSTE GROUP
BANK AG
Thank you for your attention
rainer.muenz@erstegroup.com

Key Changes Migration Trends 1951 PDF

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Titolo originale

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

Key Changes Migration Trends 1951 PDF

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

ERSTE GROUP

Key Changes in Migration

International Organization for Migration (IOM)

Geneva, March 16, 2011

Rainer Münz Page 1 March 16, 2011

Rainer Münz Page 2 March 16, 2011

120 years ago

Rainer Münz Page 3 March 16, 2011

The Caribbean Fiji

Where did Mahatma

South East Asia

Large scale export/import of Chinese labor

Rainer Münz Page 7 March 16, 2011

More migrants in the global South than in the North

R. Münz page 9 March 16, 2011

R. Münz page 10 March 16, 2011

R. Münz page 11 March 16, 2011

Number of emigrants, in millions

Russian Federation 11.1

United Kingdom 4.7

R. Münz page 12 March 16, 2011

Share of emigrants, in % of resident population

Bosnia and Herzegovina 38.9%

Trinidad and Tobago 26.7%

R. Münz page 13 March 16, 2011

R. Münz page 14 March 16, 2011

R. Münz page 15 March 16, 2011

Foreign-born population, in millions

United States 42.8

Russian Federation 12.3

Saudi Arabia 7.3

United Kingdom 7.0

R. Münz page 16 March 16, 2011

Share of foreign-born population, in % of resident population

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

United Arab Emirates 70.0%

Saudi Arabia 27.8%

New Zealand 22.4%

R. Münz page 17 March 16, 2011

US, EU27/EEA/CH, Russia, the Gulf + Australia are

BUT: 214 million migrants are only 3% of the global

Rainer Münz Page 19 March 16, 2011

Immigration minus emigration (= net migration), 1960-2008

Rainer Münz Page 20 March 16, 2011

Source: Eurostat, UNDP.

Rainer Münz Page 21 March 16, 2011

Source: Eurostat, UNDP.

Rainer Münz PageDarstellung:

Source: Eurostat, UNDP.

Rainer Münz PageDarstellung:

Source: Eurostat, UNDP.

Rainer Münz Page 24 March 16, 2011

Source: Eurostat, UNDP.

Rainer Münz Page 25 March 16, 2011

Source: Eurostat, UNDP.

Rainer Münz Page 26 March 16, 2011

Rainer Münz Page 27 March 16, 2011

Rainer Münz Page 28 March 16, 2011

Rainer Münz Page 29 March 16, 2011

Rainer Münz PageDarstellung:

13 old + 10 new territory

Rainer Muenz page 32 Brussels, Nov.19, 2010

R. Münz page 33 March 16, 2011