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Strategic Economic
Development Plan (Draft)
Tom Wisemiller
Economic Development Director
(DRAFT) STRATEGIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN
CONTENTS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
OVERVIEW 4-10
PURPOSE AND ORGANIZATION OF THE PLAN
WHO HELPED DEVELOP THIS PLAN
KEY ASSUMPTIONS
STRATEGIC VISION, APPROACH, AND RATIONALE
LEAD WITH MARKETING
RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
CONTEXT 11-27
LOCAL POPULATION
BUSINESS PATTERNS
ECONOMIC TRENDS
RELEVANT PLANS
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INCENTIVES
ASSESSMENT 28-40
WARRENTON REAL ESTATE EDUCATION
RETAIL AND TOURISM DEVELOPMENT/REDEVELOPMENT
MARKETING, BRANDING WORKFORCE AND COMMUTING
AND IDENTITY PATTERNS
ENTREPRENEURSHIP BUILDINGS AND SITES
LOCAL BUSINESS CLIMATE TARGET INDUSTRIES
ACCESS TO MARKETS QUALITY OF LIFE
TELCOMMUNICATIONS
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Town of Warrenton’s 2020 Economic Development Strategic Plan is a two-year action plan for
promoting positive economic change in Warrenton.
This plan aims to bring additional wealth into our community by:
1. Enhancing Warrenton’s image and profile as a place to visit, go shopping, operate a business,
and invest
2. Taking specific actions to attract private capital investment and raise the local tax base
3. Setting the foundations for longer-term recruitment of companies that create goods and
services locally and sell them outside the area
Major Recommendations:
Develop and deploy an aggressive digital marketing program that brands and promotes
Warrenton’s amazing assets – lead with marketing!
Emphasize food and beverage:
o Recruit a destination restaurant, run by an experienced and well-backed group, and
headlined by a rising star chef, which will serve as a regional draw for foodie tourists
o Recruit a popular fast-casual, or drive-thru fast food, restaurant to be located on the
major commercial corridor (Lee Highway/Broadview Avenue/W. Shirley Avenue), which
will generate substantial meals tax revenues
o Build on our existing cluster of food/beverage artisans, which can both anchor retail
districts and have the potential to sell products outside the local trade area: breweries,
cheese makers, wineries, bakeries, cake decorators, coffee roasters, charcuteries, etc.
o Support boutique-to-kitchen conversions in Old Town and other key locations
Work with the local business community to improve local business regulations and permitting
processes and implement other strategies for making Warrenton an even better place to do
business
o Complete four priority projects:
Update the How to Open a Business in Warrenton guide
Develop a zoning matrix
Complete a “mock” business permitting process and develop recommended
improvements
Revise signage permit regulations and process
Work with local property owners and brokers to fill empty spaces, explore the highest and best
uses for their properties, and support reinvestment in higher-priority locations
o Link investors to creative financing sources, such as applicable State and federal tax
credits
o Consider adding a low-cost incentive or grant for building investors to complement the
Town’s existing business incentives and grants
Seek investors to develop one or more dense, 3+ story, mixed-use residential buildings, with
ground floor retail, in Old Town and possibly other Urban Development Area sites
Complete planning for office/industrial site(s) that will support future development of a facility
suitable for VEDP, GSA/defense -type projects
Measure success in terms of jobs, local business expansions and start-ups, and new investment
created
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OVERVIEW
This section explains the purpose and organizational structure of the plan; how it was developed; and
the rationale for the plan’s strategic approach.
Implementation of this plan will require the sustained commitment of the Town and its partners. At the
same time, no plan should be a static document; and it’s even more important that a strategic action
plan be adaptable and responsive to changing conditions. This plan includes initiatives that will be
implemented through trial-and-error approaches and informed by new ideas, challenges and
experiences. If, two months after this plan is adopted, someone in the community has a great idea for
promoting economic development in Warrenton – which fits our overall strategic approach – it should
be incorporated into the strategic framework.
Context
This section highlights some key data and economic trends pertaining to how the local market area
will be impacted by larger endogenous and exogenous economic forces:
Warrenton population characteristics and economy
Fauquier County population characteristics and economy
Local employment, commuting, and business patterns
Household income and property values
Largest are employers
National and regional economic trends
National retail industry trends
Metropolitan development trends
Important factors driving industrial/office site selection
Important factors driving retail site selection
This section also provides an overview of how other past and current local plans addressed
economic development of Warrenton. These plans include:
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Assessment
This section analyzes Warrenton’s strengths and weaknesses in the highly competitive economic
development marketplace. It identifies opportunities to attract new investment and potential
obstacles that might hinder such efforts. This assessment uses information obtained through a
combination research sources, meetings with the Economic Development Working Group,
interviews with Town Council members and local stakeholders, and discussions with our economic
development partners.
Action Framework
This section recommends specific action steps to guide economic development in Warrenton. These
actions steps are informed by the information obtained in the Context section and the Competitive
Assessment. It consists of 15 main economic development topics along with specific initiatives to be
taken to achieve progress in each area.
The Working Group met a total of four times between October 2017 and January 2018:
a “kickoff” session plus three work sessions.
Mike Atkins, Mike Atkins Commercial Real Estate & Investments, RE/MAX Commercial
Sam Blaser, Vice President Commercial Relationship Manager, The Fauquier Ban
Abtin Buergari, Co-founder and partner, Model B
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Businesses survey
Online survey to over 180 town of Warrenton businesses in March 2018; 84 businesses
provided detailed responses.
Key Assumptions
Local economy
Retail and tourism-oriented economic base
In the last 10+ years, low interest in Warrenton’s industrial sites (probably due to land,
labor, taxes, and other costs; distance from an interstate interchange; and other factors)
Relatively strong community opposition to prospective economic development projects that
can potentially have moderate to higher impacts on adjacent neighborhoods and/or local
resources:
o Light industrial
o Data centers (especially larger, resource-intensive facilities)
o Outbound customer service “call centers”
Office vacancy rate is moderately high (but not as high as it is some NOVA market areas);
retail vacancy rate is relatively high at some locations in town, but about average overall;
residential vacancy rate is very low in part because of constricted supply
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If the goal of this plan were simply to spur growth in Warrenton – that would be easy! Create
more sites that will allow for residential development, especially single-family home that cost
less than $400,000 to purchase and multifamily units that rent for less than $1,800 per month.
But taking such an approach is not feasible. Warrenton does not have the available sites or
utility/infrastructure capacity to support rapid growth. More importantly, Warrenton’s citizens
do not want sprawl, heavy traffic, and other byproducts of haphazard growth that will detract
from all the things that are great about Warrenton: historic character, charming
neighborhoods, tight-knit community, accessibility, and authenticity. Residential growth, in and
of itself, also does not generate positive fiscal benefits or post-construction jobs. Residential
growth, by itself, is not really economic development.
On the other hand, a lot of the goals that Warrenton citizens do agree on are dependent on
residential growth:
More jobs located in Warrenton/Fauquier! (less out-commuting)
More entertainment venues/options in Warrenton/Fauquier
More diversity of shopping options and services (fill empty storefronts and office units)
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Indirectly, new residential development does support existing retailers and retail expansion.
When trendy retail chains, retail site selectors, and commercial property developers look at a
local market area, they want to know . . . “How many rooftops are within a certain distance of
the site? How much spending power do those residents have (which helps Warrenton)? What
new residential development projects does your community have in the pipeline?”
Likewise, residential growth will also help to fill smaller vacant office units/buildings, which are
typically occupied by small firms that primarily serve local clients (doctor offices, insurance
agencies, etc.).
In addition, residential growth brings new talent into the community, some of whom might
open businesses or fill a previously unmet local workforce need.
In Warrenton, where it is much easier for a developer or property owner to sell/lease
residential units – a relative scarce commodity that is therefore in high demand – than it is
office or industrial units, residential development can also give developers the financial
leverage to build other things that community wants – entertainment, shopping, class A office.
So, how do we resolve this tension between (a) the community’s desire for good, sustainable
growth that brings jobs and shopping without a lot of residential growth versus (b) the realities
of the metropolitan marketplace?
Capture more local/regional shopping dollars; attract more visitors; and facilitate investment.
We are always happy to attract more visitors who will shop, play, eat, drink, lodge, etc., here.
Some of these visitors will naturally fall in love with Warrenton/Fauquier County, just like we
did, and will want to move here. So, we must proactively market Warrenton to a specific
audience that is more likely to embrace Warrenton’s core values and attributes and which is
more likely to make the biggest positive economic impact on the community – people who, if
they do move here, have the means and the passion to invest in everything that’s great about
Warrenton, instead of trying to remake it in another image. This target audience, by itself, does
not represent a large population, so “capturing” some of this segment as potential residents is
consistent with our strategic growth goals.
Marketing Approach
Emphasize digital marketing
Start with social selling: the first step is getting the Fauquier community to believe
that there are attractive products that are sold in Warrenton, that this is a place to
be!
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The community has expressed support for dense mixed-use residential (with ground floor
retail) in the town core; renovations of historic houses; a limited amount of medium-priced,
medium-density residential development in the Urban Development Areas.
Some of Warrenton’s best competitive assets are also associated with residential dynamics:
A great place to raise a family
Excellent public schools
Best of both worlds: history, beautiful scenery, open spaces, in close proximity to
hiking, mountains, fishing, yet also easily accessible to urbanized NOVA
Part-time telecommuting is on the rise: more workers and entrepreneurs are now
commuting to the company headquarters 2-3 times a week, but spend the other 3-4
weekdays working from home, traveling, meeting clients in coffee shops, etc.
Warrenton and Fauquier County have been very successful at limiting sprawl outside of the
service districts despite very heavy growth pressures from the expanding DC/Baltimore/NOVA
metropolis. Given their historical population levels, Culpeper County and Stafford County both
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absorbed more of the regional growth “overflow” during the past four decades than Fauquier
County absorbed. The following table compares how much population growth each NOVA
county has actually absorbed since 1980 compared to how much it would have absorbed if all
of these counties had grown proportionally – i.e., if each county had absorbed only its “fair”
share since 1980.
Population Increases 1980-2020
"Fair" Share Actual Share Quotient
Loudoun 84,663 383,018 4.5240
Stafford 59,664 110,411 1.8506
Prince William 213,232 339,114 1.5904
Culpeper 33,348 28,292 0.8484
Fairfax 879,991 575,126 0.6536
Fauquier 52,910 34,413 0.6504
Warren 31,254 18,725 0.5991
Arlington 224,971 109,093 0.4849
Clarke 14,691 4,372 0.2976
Rappahannock 8,983 1,143 0.1273
NOVA Counties 1,603,706 1,603,706 1.0000
At some point in the future, however, the regional growth pressures might overwhelm
Warrenton/Fauquier’s slower growth policies. Taking a proactive approach to residential
growth will help Warrenton to grow more on its own terms.
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CONTEXT
This section provides information on the Warrenton/Fauquier County population and local economy. It
also summarizes national market trends that are impacting, or are likely to impact, Warrenton/Fauquier
County. The data are not intended to be exhaustive; rather to highlight a few key data points that the
Economic Development Working Group and the Economic Development Manager considered in
developing this plan’s strategies.
Warrenton Population
(source: Data, USA: American Community Survey, US Census; Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, County Business Patterns)
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Education Attainment
7.0% 2.0%
Bachelors Degree or
Higher
Some college or
36.1% Associates Degree
23.6%
High School or GED
P OPULATION
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Fauquier (%
County change) Virginia (% change)
2000 55,139 7,079,030
2010 65,203 18.25% 8,001,024 13.02%
2020 74,118 13.67% 8,811,512 10.13%
2030 83,312 12.40% 9,645,281 9.46%
2040 93,028 11.66% 10,530,229 9.17%
Note: a relatively small percentage of Fauquier County residents are between the ages of 20-29
and 30-39, respectively, compared to Virginia overall and the U.S. total population. These low
ratios are heighted in pink above. Fauquier County has especially low numbers of residents in
their 20s. Interviews with local businesses suggest that many of their entry level workers and
mid-level service workers live in neighboring counties where real estate is more affordable.
At the same time, it is expected that relatively low numbers of Fauquier County’s more than
27,000 out-commuters are in these younger age cohorts. The largest concentration of out-
commuters are clustered in the northeastern area of Fauquier County, where housing tends to
be more expensive.
Commuting Patterns
People who live and work in the area 8,452
In-Commuters 12,444
Out-Commuters 27,539
Net In-Commuters -15,095
(In-Commuters minus Out-Commuters)
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Conversely, a relatively high percentage of Fauquier County residents are between the ages of
40-49 compared to Virginia overall and the U.S. total population. This age cohort tends to be
the most active in starting new businesses. People in their forties tend to have extensive
experience in their fields, which they can apply to their own new business projects, and have
capital saved up which they can use as a collateral for a business loan. It is expected that a
relatively robust concentration of skilled professionals in this age cohort commute to jobs in
more urbanized NOVA counties and/or or DC.
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50 Largest Employers
1. Fauquier County School Board 26. Fauquier Physician Practice LLC
2. Fauquier Health System 27. Ross Industries Inc.
3. County of Fauquier 28. OS Restaurant Services, Inc.
4. U.S. Department of Transp. 29. Giant Food
5. Wal Mart 30. Greystone Servicing Corp.
6. Town of Warrenton 31. General Excavation
7. Food Lion 32. Chick-fil-A at Warrenton
8. Warrenton Operations, LLC 33. Payne's Parking Designs
9. Airlie Foundation 34. Sheehy Ford of Warrenton
10. Country Chevrolet, Peugeot 35. Versadyn
11. Blue Ridge Orthopaedic Assoc. 36. Ayrshire Farm
12. Lord Fairfax Community College 37. VDOT
13. Smith Midland Corporation 38. Capitol Building Supply
14. The Home Depot 39. Gaithersburg Cabinetry & Mill
15. The Fauquier Bank 40. Appleton Campbell Inc.
16. Administaff 41. Buccaneer Computer System Inc.
17. Pepsi Cola Bottling Center 42. R L Brown Excavating Corp
18. Harris Teeter Supermarket 43. Chemetrics
19. Highland School 44. Fauquier Springs Country Club
20. Wall & Associates, Inc. 45. Piedmont Family Practice
21. Postal Service 46. Red Lobster & The Olive Garden
22. 3GS Enterprises Inc. 47. Catholic Diocese of Arlington
23. Wakefield School Inc 48. B G Crane Services Inc
24. Chick-fil-A at Bonsack 49. Poplar Springs Inn & Spa
25. Safeway 50. Rappahannock Rapid Serv. Bd.
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Economic Trends
DC/NOVA
Washington region has recovered from 2013 sequester; however, the job mix has shifted
toward lower-value added positions compared to pre-recession:
o Professional and business services, health services, leisure and hospitality services,
and retail trade accounted for 80 percent of the region’s total job gain
o Professional and business services have the greatest potential for compensating for
loss of federal jobs or reductions in federal procurement spending
NOVA/DC still has among the highest per capita income, but the annual rate of per capital
income growth has leveled out in recent years
The Roadmap for the Washington Region’s Economic Future identified strategies for
reducing dependence on federal spending and diversifying the economy; however, the
region has generally struggled to attract jobs/firms in the target sectors, except for in
biological & health technology services, advocacy services, and business and leisure travel
services, and these three clusters have created modest numbers of jobs
NOVA/DC population growth is slowing, with Baby Boomers retiring
Labor availability expected to be tight going forward
NOVA/DC is aging: the region has been attractive to Millennials, but there are signs that the
appeal is diminishing, as the region is not retaining Millennials at the same rate it previously
retained Baby Boomers during same life cycles
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80% to 90% of the US workforce says they would like to telework at least part time. Two to
three days a week seems to be the sweet spot that allows for a balance of concentrative
work (at home) and collaborative work (at the office).
Fortune 1000 companies around the globe are entirely revamping their space around the
fact that employees are already mobile. Studies repeatedly show they are not at their desk
50-60% of the time.
Telecommuters tend to be college educated and make relatively high salaries.
Relevant Plans
Below is a summary of how other relevant town of Warrenton and regional plans addressed economic
development.
Town of Warrenton
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Lee Highway
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Mixed use/infill
BID
Business/district marketing
(Re)development Incentives
Streetscape improvements
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Identify potential public and private open green spaces to outdoor opportunities
including outdoor seating, public art, etc.
Wayfinding, directional and directory/kiosk signage to help visitors navigate
OTW
Conduct Property and Business Mix Assessements
Develop co-op marketing/advertising opportunites for merchants and NP's to
participate in
Promote businesses with Sunday, or longer hours through social media/Town
Crier
Provide events to bring shoppers into old town: Sidewalk sales, cocoa on the
street, Sunday events after church, First Fridays
Several of the above listed economic development recommendations appear in multiple plans and/or
were recommended by the Economic Development Working Group/Town Council members, which
suggest that they could be higher community priorities. The matrix on the following page illustrates how
often each item appears in these relevant planning sources. Items that appear in three different plans
are highlighted in bold text in the matrix.
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State of Virginia
Commonwealth’s Opportunity Fund Research and Development Tax Credit
Virginia Investment Partnership Green Job Creation Tax Credit
Grant/Major Eligible Employer Grant Sales and Use Tax Exemptions
Virginia ED Incentive Grant Property Tax Exemptions
Governor's Agriculture and Forestry ED Access Program
Industries Development Fund Transportation Partnership
Virginia Jobs Investment Program Opportunity Fund
Corporate Income Tax Credits VA Small Business Financing Authority
Major Business Facility Job Tax Credit Technology Zones
Recycling Equipment Tax Credit Defense Production Zones
Worker Retraining Tax Credit
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ASSESSMENT
This section provides a summary listing of Warrenton’s primary strengths and weaknesses as a location for business,
as well as opportunities for economic growth and issues that may impede or shape those opportunities. These
opinions were gathered from the Economic Development Working Group, interviews with Town Council and
stakeholders, and by research.
The results of this research provided critical information leading to an understanding of Warrenton’s:
Marketable strengths that can be capitalized upon
Product deficiencies that can be corrected cost-effectively
(Re)development opportunities
Issues having an impact on the community’s or region’s economic development future
Potential obstacles to growing our local businesses, growing the local job base, and attracting capital
investment
Residential, retail, and office rents/prices in Warrenton/Fauquier are lower than they are in
Ashburn, Manassas, and other cities/towns within reasonable commuting distance of DC,
Arlington, Alexandria, Tyson’s, McLean
Residential, retail, and office rents/prices in Warrenton/Fauquier are higher than they are in
Culpeper County
Interviews with local property brokers indicate the following (a windshield property survey will
be completed during Q4 of FY2018):
o Retail vacancies in the town, overall, are at about average; however, retail vacancies
have recently been on the rise on Main Street in Old Town
o Office vacancies are relatively high
Almost all of the available office units advertised on loopnet are smaller “strip-
style” offices – typically about 1,700 to 3,000 square feet
Typically, such spaces would be filled by neighborhood/local service firms such as real
estate brokers, primary care doctors, attorneys, contractors, financial services, insurance,
etc., which would employ around 2 to 8 workers
Because such firms depend mostly on localize business, these office units are not
likely to be filled until and/or unless additional residential is added to the local
trade area (i.e., more rooftops)
Note: office vacancies throughout NOVA are relatively high compared to
residential or retail space
Commercial real estate firm, JLL found earlier this year that the Northern Virginia office
market has pockets that are recovering, but that the region as a whole is still struggling,
with a 20-year historical high for office vacancies and not much improvement forecast in
the coming years; Fairfax County’s office vacancy rate of 21.1 percent is second behind
Arlington, followed by Alexandria (19 percent), Loudoun County (16.6 percent) and
Prince William County (15.6 percent).
Residential vacancy rates are very low as demand for housing outpaces supply
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Old Town
Roughly 90 percent of local business sales happen on the Lee Highway/Broadview Avenue. W.
Shirley corridor; however, Old Town is the tourism destination
Relatively high number of vacant storefronts on Main Street
Warrenton has a comparative advantage due to low crime in that we can incorporate Project for
Public Spaces-type elements to enliven public spaces (movable furniture, comfortable benches,
taller plantings, etc.) while other communities must utilize “defensive design”
The farmers market, which is held once per week in Old Town, spring to fall, is successful;
however, no other commercially-oriented festivals in Old Town
Community festivals are very well attended; however, they generate modest sales for Old Town
merchants
Modest foot traffic during “happy hour” except during community festivals
Thriving Main Street-anchored communities tend to have the following features:
o A diversity of restaurants, eating places, food shops that create “restaurant districts” or
nodes, along with district-, or retail center- compatible entertainment, boutiques, and
supporting businesses
o Use Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) and/or other vehicles to create regional “draws”
(e.g., major resort, children’s museum, conference hotel), upgrade the physical
infrastructure (structured parking, wayfinding signage, outdoor dining plaza)
o At the same time, though, they preserve and embrace their history, authenticity,
identity, sense of community
o Identify their target consumers, proactively market to them, and then deliver on their
promises (e.g., consistent, predictable business hours); if the target group is adults 30-45
years old, they’ll have infrastructure such as drop-in daycare, child-friendly restaurants
and entertainment venues
Greater Warrenton
Increases in meals tax revenues for FY18 have underperformed projections (meals taxes
make up roughly 17% of total tax revenues)
Strong equestrian tradition: Gold Cup (Spring and Fall), Warrenton Horse Show
o Connections between horse show(s) and Old Town are not well capitalized
There is a perception that Vint Hill/New Baltimore residents rarely come to Warrenton
o These residents can quickly, conveniently reach shopping and entertainment options in
Gainesville, Manassas, etc., or drive to the NOVA core on the weekends when traffic is
lighter
o Many of these residents also work in urbanized NOVA, so their daily routines, or
geographical “orbits” are centered in that direction, while Warrenton becomes less
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Marketing/Branding/Identity
Story of family
A place you can live! Raise a family
Holistic living: nature, health, outdoors
Active outdoors: Hiking, fishing, horses, space, green
History
Wine
Proximity to DC/NOVA: “best of both worlds”
Gateway to the Piedmont, to nature
The people
Civic engagement, passion: if you raise kids here, participate in the community, everywhere you
go is a classroom or a meeting space
Audience Definition:
o Currently lives in greater DC: NOVA, city of DC, Maryland
• Professionals, entrepreneurs, business owners, technology skills, “creative economy”
workers, executives
• Work in, manage, or own small businesses (typically 0-9 employees)
• Many will work for, or run, “decentralized” businesses that do not revolve around a
single, traditional office building/HQ; they might still need to go to DC/Arlington/etc.
2-3 times a week, but not constant commuting
• Married with children, or plan to have children in the next few years
• Empty nesters, or
• Early Millennial generation (born 1977-1987, or about 30-40 years old
o Millennials buying "suburban" houses when they have the means, but somewhat
higher desire for walkable, etc.
o We are not a realistic fit for 20-somethings
o FC/Warrenton is expensive, but not as expensive as urbanized NOVA (Millennials
leaving expensive urban locations)
o Part-time telecommuting is on the rise (significantly faster than increases in full-time
telecommuting): Warrenton in sweet spot for this . . .
o Schools (smaller class size)
o Quality of life (target those who like open spaces)
o Gateway between mountains and urbanized NOVA (Get to mountains in 45 minutes
or Trader Joe's/IKEA in 45 minutes)
o Citizens prefer moderate residential growth, so target those who bring a lot to the table and
embrace values
o Target audience has greater propensity to reinvest in historic properties, embrace our
values, etc.
Entrepreneurship
Mason Enterprise Center in Old Town Warrenton – which is part of Fauquier County’s business
incubator system – is an excellent facility with outstanding entrepreneur support resources
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o Currently, the facility does have a few potential growth companies; however, it is still
functioning primarily as a quasi co-working space for 1-2 person “shops” with limited
growth potential (e.g., insurance, real estate brokers)
Fauquier County has a strong base of technical professionals – engineers, technology, cyber
security, defense industry workers, and other professionals with specialized skills, which lend
themselves to consulting work
Fauquier County also has a relatively high concentration of residents in their 40s, which is a
prime age cohort for entrepreneurs
o To what extent, however, is this potential base of entrepreneurs inclined to be relatively
loyal to their organizations and/or vested in generous retirement programs? Many
Fauquier professionals commute to jobs with federal agencies/contractors and/or major
corporate employers in urbanized NOVA,
perspective of businesses, the “overhead” costs are rents plus BPOL, Business Personal
Property Tax, and Real Estate taxes
Access to Markets
Warrenton is within close driving distance of over 120,000 households in a region with high levels of
disposable income:
o Within a 5-mile radius of Old Town Warrenton (2017 ESRI Business Analyst):
25,316 persons
8,734 households
2.71 average household size
o Within a 20-mile radius of Old Town Warrenton (2017 ESRI Business Analyst):
375,191 persons
123,614 households
3.02 average household size
1.81% annual growth rate
$120,981 average household income
o The challenge is that other nearby market areas in NOVA (e.g., Gainesville, Manassas)
have an even stronger base of population and offer a more diverse mix of retail and
service options, which contributes to retail/services “leakages” from Fauquier County,
especially from the Vint Hill/New Baltimore area, into Prince William County and other
adjacent counties
Warrenton/Fauquier is a very desirable location for residential development: commutes to
urbanized areas of NOVA/DC typically about 0.5 to 1.5 hours.
45-minute drive from Warrenton to Washington Dulles International Airport
Telecommunications
Warrenton is located in close proximity to major “pipelines” of high speed telecommunications
fiber, which presents commercial/industrial possibilities
o Data center developers have shown frequent interest in Warrenton
“Retail” high speed internet service is widely available in Warrenton, but it is limited in more rural
areas of Fauquier County
o On the one hand, concentrated connectivity within the Service Districts can help to spur
office and technology businesses in those districts
o On the other hand, the connectivity “blind spots” have numerous negative implications:
Discourages some professionals/companies that intend to locate their primary offices
in town but might wish to live in rural parts of Fauquier
A segment of higher income business executives and professionals are attracted to
the idea of living in “horse country”
Limits online accessibility for students
o Better connectivity throughout the county will better position Warrenton, not just Fauquier
County, to compete in a future when a company’s “office” becomes an increasingly more
fluid concept
Fauquier County is working on a countywide broadband initiative
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Education
Primary and Secondary Education
o Fauquier County public schools score high in academic ratings (including standardized test
scores) compared to the rest of Virginia and very high in comparison to the U.S. overall
18 of 19 schools in the district are fully accredited by the Virginia Dept. of Education
o Standardized scores for Fauquier County are slightly lower compared to the nationally-
recognized Prince William County and Loudoun County schools, but Fauquier schools have
lower student to teacher ratios (13 to 1) and a lower dropout rate (only 9 percent) compared
to these neighboring counties
High school graduation rate in 2016 was 91.5%, which is among the highest in the
state
o Fauquier County Schools have excellent specialized programs in areas such as
virtual/technology programs, world languages, fine arts, STEM, professional learning Gifted
And Advanced Programs
o Over 2,000 students attend private schools – both religious and non-religious
Higher Education
o Lord Fairfax Community College:
2 Fauquier campuses: Warrenton and Vint Hill
Offers more than 75 associate and certificate degree programs in a wide variety of
disciplines
Access to bachelor’s, master’s and doctoral degree programs offered on site by a
four-year institution
Serves the business community by offering workforce preparation programs for
employees and employers
More than 7,600 unduplicated credit students and more than 10,450 individuals in
professional development and business and industry courses annually
o George Mason University (closest academic campus in Prince William County):
Mason Enterprise Center, on Main Street in Old Town Warrenton: provides its client
companies with a professional work environment, support facilities, training, access
to George Mason University business counselors and co-working space, among other
resources.
Development/Redevelopment
Limited land and sites available within Town of Warrenton
No option for sub-metering? (Otherwise, commercial developers pay full costs of tap fees)
Land costs are high; possible mismatch between R.O.I. for property investments versus what local
trade area will support in terms of affordable rents
West of Lee Street: underutilized parcels in the vicinity of Claire’s at the Depot, railroad pocket
park/historic railroad
o Because this area is lower in elevation than Main Street, 3-4 story buildings here would not
compete with the height and profile of the Main Street building fabric and/or viewsheds
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o Potential to redevelop this site with assistance of federal and/or State grants/tax credits
Northwest corner of Lee Highway and Blackwell Road (above Country Chevrolet):
o Previously considered for a retail development; however, large-scale commercial
development will necessitate an upgrade to the adjacent intersection
o Data center developers have shown recent interest in this site
o Good potential as a technology/business park
Walker Drive:
o Town Council approached a rezoning of a 31-acre parcel from Industrial to Industrial-
Planned Unit Development
o This area is transitioning more toward a mixed-use commercial/residential environment
Office/Technology Sites
Office pads on Blackwell Road
o Good potential for 15,000+ SF Class A office building if the opportunity arises
Northwest corner of Lee Highway and Blackwell Road: see above
Target Industries
Shift share is a standard regional analysis method that attempts to determine how much of regional job
growth can be attributed to national trends and how much is due to unique regional factors. It can help
answer why employment is growing or declining in a regional industry, cluster, or occupation. It does not
indicate why these industries are competitive, but it does help to identify good possible investment targets.
A shift share analysis of Fauquier County employment growth by sector (categorized by NAICS 4-digit
industry codes) between April 2014 and April 2017 identified a number of industry sectors for which recent
employment growth is attributed to unique regional factors. Some of these industries probably grew
outside of town limits because they are not good fits for Warrenton: e.g., NAICS 4233 Lumber and const.
supply merchant wholesalers and NAICS 5629 Remediation and other waste services. Other sectors that
ranked highly in the shift share analysis, however, are likely to be good fits for Warrenton:
• NAICS 7225 Restaurants and other eating places • NAICS 4442 Lawn, garden equipment stores
• NAICS 5411 Legal services • NAICS 8129 Other personal services
• NAICS 6116 Other schools and instruction • NAICS 5412 Accounting and bookkeeping services
• NAICS 5112 Software publishers • NAICS 5616 Investigation and security services
• NAICS 5111 Newspaper, book, directory publishers • NAICS 3121 Beverage manufacturing
• NAICS 5419 Other professional & technical services • NAICS 5413 Architectural and engineering services
• NAICS 4452 Specialty food stores
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The fast-growing sectors listed to the right are mostly categorized using 6-digit NAICS codes,
which are more specific than the 4-digit codes we used in the shift share analysis. None of these
sub-sectors fall under any of the larger 4-digit categories listed above (from the shift share
analysis); however, they are good fits for Warrenton, with those highlighted in yellow being
especially compatible with our higher ranked shift share sectors, consistent with our marketing
vision, and/or medical-related.
2016
Computer systems design and related services growth
18%
Services to Buildings and Dwellings 14%
Other Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 13%
Other Specialty Trade Contractors
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Health IT is one of the fastest growing new industry sectors, with a lot of
venture capital flowing into new ventures; however, this field can be
volatile and unpredictable and some of the best ideas and most useful
technologies might be difficult to translate into profitable business
models; moreover, growth in these sectors concentrated on west coast,
partly due to west coast time advantage
Fauquier Health
o Current specializations:
Orthopedics
Women’s Services
Outpatient (Fauquier Health is very convenient)
o Future concentration:
Oncology
o 3-6% decline in emergency visits
o 23% of Fauquier Health business comes from Culpeper County
o When recruiting doctors/specialists from various national backgrounds, one
challenge that Fauquier Health has is the relative lack of cultural diversity in
Fauquier County (foreign born doctors on the rise)
o Patients visiting Fauquier Health have little difficulty their ways to, and on, the
campus; however, patients/guests frequently complain about not being able to
find shopping, services, etc. around town when they venture “off campus”
o Haymarket hospital, in an area with a relatively young population, is losing
money and projects to struggle for the next 10+ years
Quality of Life
Warrenton assets
• Great place to raise a family: good schools, relaxed lifestyle, low traffic, high levels of
public safety/low crime rates
• Warrenton is a lifestyle gateway: situated within a beautiful landscape of wineries,
horse farms, and well-kept neighborhoods, Warrenton is only a 30+ minute drive
east to world class shopping and other amenities, or a 30+ minute drive west to
trout fishing, hiking, and other outdoor activities in the Blue Ridge Mountains
• Warrenton is a charming historic community: walkable streets, historical sites, tree-
lined streets, a greenway/trail system
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• Warrenton Aquatic and Recreation Facility (WARF): 60,000 square foot building
featuring an 11 lane, 25 yard-by-25 meter indoor competition pool; a therapeutic
spa; leisure pool with a water slide and a lazy river; 3,200 square foot fitness room
Lifestyle trends
1. Early Millennials consistently chose options correlated with autonomy and the ability to self-
direct their schedules and work
2. 71% of Early Millennials said they would give up well paid jobs for better work-life balance
Partnerships
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ACTION PLAN
This section provides a breakdown of all the recommended action steps that the town of Warrenton
should pursue to promote the economic development strategies described herein for the next two
years.
The Town of Warrenton’s 2020 Strategic Economic Development Plan is a two-year action plan for
promoting positive economic change in Warrenton. As such, the majority of these items will be
completed within that two year horizon and can therefore have an immediate positive impact on
Warrenton’s business climate. For other strategies, the community will first have to lay a foundation –
via planning, analyses, capacity building, etc. – before proceeding to concrete action steps. So, the
following action plan does include recommendations that will take three or five or more years to really
carry out. The goal of this plan, though, is to emphasize immediate and realizable goals, strategies, and
actions as much as possible.
For each of the above strategic areas, the following worksheets summarize the overall strategic goals we
are trying to achieve; provide background information (if applicable); list the major recommended
action steps; and a partial schedule for completion of each item. Note: when this draft plan is presented
to Town Council, the Council will be asked to prioritize the various strategies and action items, at which
point the schedule will be organized based on those priorities.
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Marketing
Strategy
Capture more local/regional shopping dollars; attract more visitors; facilitate investment. Proactively
market Warrenton to a specific audience to maximize positive economic impact on the community.
Background Information
Emphasize digital marketing, but continue to do selective print marketing where effective,
including in partnership with Fauquier County Economic Development
Start with social selling
Concentrate on attracting versus/talent (people) as opposed to marketing to site selectors; site
selector marketing is expensive and we do not yet have suitable sites in place, so if we attracted
them, we don’t yet have places to locate the companies
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Background Information
60+% of retail prospects that are interested in the Warrenton market are restaurants or other
food & beverage retailers
Restaurant/food & beverage: best, most realistic anchors for thriving retail centers/districts in
Warrenton, given retail market trends
Converting retail spaces to restaurants/food production is expensive and complicated
Old Town Warrenton has a relatively low percentage of retail spaces with kitchens
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General Retail
Strategy
Help existing local retailers to succeed; find good locations for prospects that will position them to be
successful in our market area; attract new retailers that will help to diversify the Warrenton retail mix
and reinforce our marketing brand and image
Background Information
Recruitment focus on “experiential” retail and/or missing niches in the local market area, which
is most likely to be successful
No recent local retail market study, which are expensive
The Town does have access to ESRI Business Analyst, via our ED partners/Fauquier County GIS
Develop local retail analytics, which can be shared with prospects and
site selectors and posted on the ED webpage
Purchase/borrow ESRI Business Analyst account
access/subscription via Fauquier County GIS
Discuss with ED partners possibly sharing the costs of a
moderately-priced proprietary data platform to enhance our
analytics
o The goal is to be able to demonstrate to developers,
retailers that we have good opportunities that do not fit
typical site selector formulas
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Background Information
Currently, the retail vacancy rate in Old Town is relatively high
60+% of retail prospects that are interested in the Warrenton market are restaurants or other
food & beverage retailers
Current (perceived) activities voids in Old Town/Warrenton: date night spots, family
entertainment venues, bars/restaurants that attract a professional happy hour crowd
Thriving, well-attended community events, but commercial business generated from these
events is modest
Parking:
Look for low cost ways to improve wayfinding/signage
directing drivers to spaces
Promote flex parking opportunities
Consider using “all day” tag system for OTW employees
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Redevelopment Opportunities
Strategy
Facilitate redevelopment of underutilized properties and reinvestment in historic properties; link
building owners, developers, and investors to creative financing sources; focus on properties located in
Old Town, within Urban Development Areas, or on Broadview Avenue
Background Information
The Town currently has no incentives available for property improvements, e.g. façade
improvement grants
There is a perception among developers and investors in the region that doing redevelopment
projects in Warrenton is difficult
High demand for residential development in the market, which could provide financial leverage
to do ground floor retail and structured parking
Coordinate with high-value auto dealers on their site needs and site
improvement projects
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Broadview Avenue
Strategy
Support the success of Broadview Avenue businesses and property owners, including heavy commercial
and drive-thru business formats that currently predominate; at the same time, look for appropriate
opportunities to support catalytic redevelopment at key locations of Broadview Avenue, which will spur
business growth and reinvestment throughout the corridor.
Background Information
Approximately 90% of commercial sales in Warrenton happen on the primary commercial
corridor of Lee Highway/Broadview Avenue/Shirley Avenue, yet many business owners on
Broadview feel that the Town focuses much of its attention and resources on Old Town,
sometimes to their detriment
A number of Broadview Avenue businesses are concerned that the construction of medians on
Broadview Avenue will reduce access to their businesses and hurt their sales
The Broadview corridor was originally developed as a neighborhood-level commercial street,
and therefore was not developed with shared drives and inter-parcel connectors, like the big
commercial centers on Lee Highway have; over the decades, though, Broadview Avenue became
a major commuter thoroughfare, which has caused conflicts between through-traffic and local
business trips
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Entertainment/Tourism
Strategy
Market Warrenton a great place to relax and experience a vibrant town life . . . a cozy hub that
is conveniently located at the center of wineries, horse country, the mountains, and scenic
paradise; begin developing the entertainment/entertainment venues and amenities that also
make Warrenton more of an active hot spot for date nights, family outings, and destination
tourism
Background Information
Warrenton is already well positioned as a gateway/hub/staycation/2nd home location, but
does not have a lot of active entertainment venues
Warrenton community festivals are successful, well-attended
Warrenton horse shows/hunts draw good crowds, too, and are part of Warrenton’s identity;
however, perception among people in the industry that Warrenton does not connect well to
these events
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Planning/Business Permitting
Strategy
Work with the local business community and the Town of Warrenton Planning Department to
complete 2-3 manageable, incremental improvements to business permitting/zoning, which
will help to make Warrenton’s business permitting/zoning process easier to navigate while also
supporting the community’s land use planning goals
Background Information
Historically, Warrenton has had a reputation of being a difficult place to open and run a business
The Planning Department is working on several items that will help businesses to navigate the
process: Zoning Matrix, parking revisions, signage permitting revisions, draft zoning amendment
to address proposed Data Center projects
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Background Information
Nationally, 80%+ of growth comes from expansion of existing firms
Business Retention and Expansion (BRE) is essential intelligence gathering
BRE can help speed up local investment
It can also slow down, or even stop businesses from leaving
BRE partners include: the Fauquier Chamber, Mason Enterprise Center, Lord Fauquier
Community College/LFCC Small Business Center, Fauquier County Economic Development
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Target Industries
Strategy
Identify key industry sectors on which to proactively focus our “industry” (i.e., not retail) recruitment
(these targets do not preclude us from recruiting other types of non-retail businesses, as we must be
ready to respond to all inquiries and good leads; rather, the targets are meant as a guide on how to
focus limited recruitment resources; where available buildings/sites are not yet ready to support some
of these projects. Recruit targets in those industry sectors that are immediately supported by existing
sites/infrastructure
Background Information
Largest existing private sector employer is Fauquier Health
In Warrenton/Fauquier, the strongest existing “industry” base of companies that produce things
is artisanal manufacturing: e.g., crafts, breweries, food and beverage production
Local service clusters: publishers, professional & technical services, financial services,
architectural and engineering services
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Workforce Development
Look for opportunities to partner with Lord Fairfax Community College and other ED partners
that specialize in workforce development programs and events.
We rely on these partners to lead local and regional workforce and small business development efforts.
LFCC offers outstanding training programs and certifications for students, professionals, technicians, and
people who work in trades. They serve the business community by offering workforce preparation
programs for employees and employers. Mason Enterprise Center Mason Enterprise Center in
Old Town Warrenton – which is part of Fauquier County’s business incubator system – is an
excellent facility with outstanding entrepreneur support resources.
Entrepreneurship
Look for opportunities to partner with Lord Fairfax Community College/Small Business
Development Center, Mason Enterprise Center, the Fauquier Chamber, and other ED partners
that specialize in small business development programs and events.
Regularly attend and participate in Ignite Fauquier events; encourage Warrenton businesses to
participate in the program; encourage more restaurants and food & beverage businesses to
participate in this peer forum
Initiate a dialogue on the idea of Entrepreneurship in the Schools: the best way to foster
entrepreneurship is to start working with future entrepreneurs when they’re still kids (hopefully,
some of them will return/stay in the area as adults)
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Tracking/monitoring
Benchmarks
Measurables
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