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Statistics III
Masters in Management
EXAM - model
XXth October 2015, XX pm
Duration: 1h30
INSTRUCTIONS
Write your name and student number on the first page of this assignment.
The answers to the questions should be written in the locations indicated in this
assignment.
Before starting the EXAM confirm that this assignment has 21 pages numbered 1 to
21.
At the end of this assignment you will find included some key equations and
statistical tables.
You must remain seated in your place by the end of the EXAM.
When the time expires please turn your EXAM over and wait for its collection made
by invigilators.
For each question in Groups I to III indicate only one answer in the table on page 9
Each correct answer is worth 0,70 values
Each wrong answer is worth 0.20 negative (-0.20).
Each answer blank or poorly marked is worth 0.
Group I
How long, in average, does it take a Nova SBE graduate student to find a job after
graduation? with a random sample we computed the following indicators (X,
months):
100 100
x i 341
i 1
(x
i 1
i x) 2 253,44
1. Luca computed the margin of error with a 95% confidence level and he got
a) 0,3152
b) 0,3120
c) 0,3136
d) None of the others
2. “We cannot compute the limits of a confidence interval” Gerrit argued. Well,
Gerrit is
a) correct, because we do not have information about the time (X) distribution
b) not correct, because I do not know the sample mean distribution
c) not correct, because the Central Limit Theorem applies
d) correct, because the Central Limit Theorem does not apply
4. During the group meeting Luca wanted to test the hypothesis that the true
mean time it take a Nova SBE graduate student to find a job after graduation
is equal to 3 months (or less than). “We will perform a one-sided test and the
critical value is, for sure, greater than 3” Jenny said. Jenny is
a) Not correct
b) Correct
c) Correct only if the confidence level is greater than 95%
d) Not correct only if the confidence level is greater than 95%
5. In the end Jenny proposed to test Ho: µ=4 vs H1: µ<4. If we decide to use a
95% confidence level the critical value will be equal to
a) 3,147
b) 3,686
c) 3,737
d) none of the others
6. Based on question 5., if the alternative hypothesis would instead be H1: µ≠4,
with the same confidence level the “lower” critical value would be
a) greater than the one computed in question 5.
b) lower than the one computed in question 5.
c) equal to the one computed in question 5
d) we cannot say
5.3. What is the expected Time it take a Nova SBE graduate student, aged 25
years old, to find a job after graduation?
a) less than 1 month
b) between 2 and 3 months
c) 1 month
d) None of the others
5.4. The difference between being 23 years old or 33 years old is huge…
a) it will take more than one year to find a job!
b) it will take more 0,26 months to find a job!
c) it will take more 2,6 months to find a job!
d) None of the others
The sample for the Time it take a Nova SBE graduate student to find a job
after graduation.
Referring to students from 5 different countries (Portugal, Germany, Italy,
Spain and Netherlands), 50 women, all aged between 21 and 30 years old.
and computed some indicators (although the complete information got lost in the
way):
1. In the end of the day, the research group gathered and discussed based on the
conclusions. They decided to investigate, more in depth, using only students
from Portugal and Germany. Their belief is that Time it take a Nova SBE
graduate student to find a job after graduation, besides being related with Age,
should be related with the student’ cultural level, the language skills and the
Undergraduate course final grade.
How would you help the team to achieve the objective?
(what technique(s) would you suggest to use and how would you implement it;
suggestion: build an example)
In Group II a Regression Analysis has been conducted where Y – Time and X – Age with a sample
sized 24 allowed a r2=0,60 considered significant at a 95% confidence level.
The purpose is to investigate if Cultural level (categorical), Language skills (categorical), Underg
Final Grade can improve the model. We will define categories for Cultural level (CL), e.g.,
Low, Med, High / Language skills (LS), e.g. Med, Good. We want to explain the variability
found in Y using, besides metric variables, categorical variables. If we code them using dummy
variables we can use regression analysis to investigate if these new variables can improve the
already tested model.
We will get additional data (for the new variables) using the same 24 previous selected students
although we could select another sample (maybe with a greater size, if possible, as the number
of regressors will increase).
To include the categorical variables in the model dummy variables need to be considered: e.g. CL-
Med, CL-High and LS-Good assuming 1 if the corresponding condition is meet, 0 otherwise.
The theoretical model would be:
Time 0 1Age 2 UFG 3CL Med 3CL High 3 LS Good
n=24, a 95% confidence level will be considered and Ordinary Least Squares method will be used
(using Gretl, Excel or any another specific software).
To test the overall significance of the model, the F statistics will be compared with a critical value
from a F-Snedecor distribution with 5 and 18 degrees of freedom; if F>2,773 then the model
will be significant (r2 will be greater than 0,60 but its significance will still be tested).
All the parameters will be individually tested in order to find out if they are different from zero.
Each t statistics will be compared with a t-Student critical value, with 18 degrees of freedom:
if |t|>2,101 the corresponding variable will be considered significant to improve to initial model.
2. Ho: Gender is independent from Time it take a Nova SBE graduate student to find
a job after graduation. The p-value=0,98!
Propose a set of data that fits to Null hypothesis and final result using 3 categories
for Time it take a Nova SBE graduate student to find a job after graduation.
The 3 categories for Time could be: less than 1 months, between 1 and 2 months and
greater than 2 months.
e.g. for a sample of size 121 (students) if the distribution is the following
Gender/Time <1month 1-2 months >2 months
female 18 29 9 56
male 21 32 12 65
39 61 21 121
If the Null hypothesis is true, each expected frequency (E) is very close to the
56x39
observed: e.g E Female ;1month 18,05 (the observed is 18)
121
The Q
18 18,052 ... 2,22
18,05
This test statistics is lower than the critical value from a Chi-square distribution with
(2-1)(3-1)=2 degrees of freedom: with a 95% confidence level 5,991.
Thus the p-value is greater than 0,05… maybe close to 0,98 (with the available tables
we are not able to access the correct value!)
x
(1 )
X ~ N(; ) X ~ N(; ) P ~ N ( ; )
n n30 n n 30 n
2
z
n /2
ME
N2 N 1 ME2
n n n0 2
2X (N 1) 2 n0 (N 1) 1 z / 22
(n X 1)S2X (n Y 1)S2Y
Sp2
nX nY 2
nXPX nYPY
P0
nX n Y
𝑋~Bernoulli 𝑝(1 − 𝑝)
Large sample 𝑝 ± 𝑧𝛼/2 √
𝑛
𝐻0 : X ~ a 𝑋 𝑖𝑠 a (or as a) 𝑘
(𝑂𝑏𝑠𝑖 −𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑖 )2
2 2
specified 𝐶𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝜒 =∑ ~𝜒(𝑘−1)
distribution 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑘 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑖
𝑖=1
𝑋 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑌 𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝑟 𝑐
𝐻0 : X and Y 𝐶𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑠 2
(𝑂𝑏𝑠𝑖𝑗 −𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑖𝑗 )2 2
𝜒 = ∑∑ ~𝜒((𝑟−1)(𝑐−1))
independent 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑐 𝑐𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑔𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝐸𝑥𝑝𝑖𝑗
𝑖=1 𝑗=1
respectively
nk
k
nk ( x i x ) 2
i 1
F k 1
𝐻0 : kn k h
~ Fk 1 ;(k 1 )(h1 )
µ1=µ2=…= µk (x x )
i1
i
2
nk ( x i x ) nh ( x i x )
i1
2
i1
2
(k 1)(h 1)
Xi ~ N (µi , ) h
nh ( x i x ) 2
i 1
𝐻0 :
F h1 ~ Fh1 ;(k 1 )(h1 )
µ1=µ2=…= µh kn k h
two-way (x x )
i1
i
2
nk ( x i x ) nh ( x i x )
i1
2
i1
2
(k 1)(h 1)
k
mnk ( x i x ) 2
i 1
F k 1 ~ Fk 1 ;hk(m1 )
kn k h
𝐻0 : (x x )
i 1
i
2
mnk ( x i x ) mnh ( x i x ) SSI
i 1
2
i1
2
µ1=µ2=…= µk
hk (m 1)
h
mnh ( x i x ) 2
i 1
F k 1 ~ Fh1 ;hk(m1 )
𝐻0 : kn k h
µ1=µ2=…= µh
Xi ~ N (µi , )
(x x )
i 1
i
2
mnk ( x i x ) mnh ( x i x ) SSI
i 1
2
i1
2
hk (m 1)
SSI
(k 1)(h 1)
F ~ F(k 1 )(h1 );hk(m1 )
𝐻0 : no kn k h
interaction (x x )
i 1
i
2
mnk ( x i x ) mnh ( x i x ) SSI
i1
2
i1
2
two-way with
hk (m 1)
interaction
h k
SSI m ( x ji x i x j x ) 2 , m-nº of observations per cell
j 1 i1
i 1
Distribution of bj: b j ~ N j , Var(b j ) , j=0, …, k.
0.8508
0,8
0,45 P[Z<1.04]=F(1.04)
P[Z < z]=xxxx
0,6
0,30
0,4
0,15
0,2
0,00 0,0
-3,50 -1,75 0,00 1,75 3,50 -3,50 -1,75 0,00 1,75 3,50
0,8
0,131
P[gl < q]=xxx
P[q12<23.337]=F(23.337)
0,6
0,087
0,4
0,044
0,2
0,000 0,0
0,00 6,25 12,50 18,75 25,00 0,00 6,25 12,50 18,75 25,00
gl \ xxx 0,005 0,010 0,025 0,050 0,100 0,250 0,500 0,750 0,900 0,950 0,975 0,990 0,995
1 0,000 0,000 0,001 0,004 0,016 0,102 0,455 1,323 2,706 3,841 5,024 6,635 7,879
2 0,010 0,020 0,051 0,103 0,211 0,575 1,386 2,773 4,605 5,991 7,378 9,210 10,597
3 0,072 0,115 0,216 0,352 0,584 1,213 2,366 4,108 6,251 7,815 9,348 11,345 12,838
4 0,207 0,297 0,484 0,711 1,064 1,923 3,357 5,385 7,779 9,488 11,143 13,277 14,860
5 0,412 0,554 0,831 1,145 1,610 2,675 4,351 6,626 9,236 11,070 12,832 15,086 16,750
6 0,676 0,872 1,237 1,635 2,204 3,455 5,348 7,841 10,645 12,592 14,449 16,812 18,548
7 0,989 1,239 1,690 2,167 2,833 4,255 6,346 9,037 12,017 14,067 16,013 18,475 20,278
8 1,344 1,647 2,180 2,733 3,490 5,071 7,344 10,219 13,362 15,507 17,535 20,090 21,955
9 1,735 2,088 2,700 3,325 4,168 5,899 8,343 11,389 14,684 16,919 19,023 21,666 23,589
10 2,156 2,558 3,247 3,940 4,865 6,737 9,342 12,549 15,987 18,307 20,483 23,209 25,188
11 2,603 3,053 3,816 4,575 5,578 7,584 10,341 13,701 17,275 19,675 21,920 24,725 26,757
12 3,074 3,571 4,404 5,226 6,304 8,438 11,340 14,845 18,549 21,026 23,337 26,217 28,300
13 3,565 4,107 5,009 5,892 7,041 9,299 12,340 15,984 19,812 22,362 24,736 27,688 29,819
14 4,075 4,660 5,629 6,571 7,790 10,165 13,339 17,117 21,064 23,685 26,119 29,141 31,319
15 4,601 5,229 6,262 7,261 8,547 11,037 14,339 18,245 22,307 24,996 27,488 30,578 32,801
16 5,142 5,812 6,908 7,962 9,312 11,912 15,338 19,369 23,542 26,296 28,845 32,000 34,267
17 5,697 6,408 7,564 8,672 10,085 12,792 16,338 20,489 24,769 27,587 30,191 33,409 35,718
18 6,265 7,015 8,231 9,390 10,865 13,675 17,338 21,605 25,989 28,869 31,526 34,805 37,156
19 6,844 7,633 8,907 10,117 11,651 14,562 18,338 22,718 27,204 30,144 32,852 36,191 38,582
20 7,434 8,260 9,591 10,851 12,443 15,452 19,337 23,828 28,412 31,410 34,170 37,566 39,997
21 8,034 8,897 10,283 11,591 13,240 16,344 20,337 24,935 29,615 32,671 35,479 38,932 41,401
22 8,643 9,542 10,982 12,338 14,041 17,240 21,337 26,039 30,813 33,924 36,781 40,289 42,796
23 9,260 10,196 11,689 13,091 14,848 18,137 22,337 27,141 32,007 35,172 38,076 41,638 44,181
24 9,886 10,856 12,401 13,848 15,659 19,037 23,337 28,241 33,196 36,415 39,364 42,980 45,558
25 10,520 11,524 13,120 14,611 16,473 19,939 24,337 29,339 34,382 37,652 40,646 44,314 46,928
26 11,160 12,198 13,844 15,379 17,292 20,843 25,336 30,435 35,563 38,885 41,923 45,642 48,290
27 11,808 12,878 14,573 16,151 18,114 21,749 26,336 31,528 36,741 40,113 43,195 46,963 49,645
28 12,461 13,565 15,308 16,928 18,939 22,657 27,336 32,620 37,916 41,337 44,461 48,278 50,994
29 13,121 14,256 16,047 17,708 19,768 23,567 28,336 33,711 39,087 42,557 45,722 49,588 52,335
30 13,787 14,953 16,791 18,493 20,599 24,478 29,336 34,800 40,256 43,773 46,979 50,892 53,672
40 20,707 22,164 24,433 26,509 29,051 33,660 39,335 45,616 51,805 55,758 59,342 63,691 66,766
60 35,534 37,485 40,482 43,188 46,459 52,294 59,335 66,981 74,397 79,082 83,298 88,379 91,952
0.95
P[t15<1.753]=F(1.753) 0,8
0,375
P[tgl < t]=xxx
0,6
0,250
0,4
0,125
0,2
0,000 0,0
-3,50 -1,75 0,00 1,75 3,50 -3,50 -1,75 0,00 1,75 3,50
gl \ xxx 0,999 0,995 0,990 0,975 0,950 0,900 0,850 0,800 0,700 0,600 0,500
1 318,3 63,656 31,821 12,706 6,314 3,078 1,963 1,376 0,727 0,325 0,000
2 22,328 9,925 6,965 4,303 2,920 1,886 1,386 1,061 0,617 0,289 0,000
3 10,214 5,841 4,541 3,182 2,353 1,638 1,250 0,978 0,584 0,277 0,000
4 7,173 4,604 3,747 2,776 2,132 1,533 1,190 0,941 0,569 0,271 0,000
5 5,894 4,032 3,365 2,571 2,015 1,476 1,156 0,920 0,559 0,267 0,000
6 5,208 3,707 3,143 2,447 1,943 1,440 1,134 0,906 0,553 0,265 0,000
7 4,785 3,499 2,998 2,365 1,895 1,415 1,119 0,896 0,549 0,263 0,000
8 4,501 3,355 2,896 2,306 1,860 1,397 1,108 0,889 0,546 0,262 0,000
9 4,297 3,250 2,821 2,262 1,833 1,383 1,100 0,883 0,543 0,261 0,000
10 4,144 3,169 2,764 2,228 1,812 1,372 1,093 0,879 0,542 0,260 0,000
11 4,025 3,106 2,718 2,201 1,796 1,363 1,088 0,876 0,540 0,260 0,000
12 3,930 3,055 2,681 2,179 1,782 1,356 1,083 0,873 0,539 0,259 0,000
13 3,852 3,012 2,650 2,160 1,771 1,350 1,079 0,870 0,538 0,259 0,000
14 3,787 2,977 2,624 2,145 1,761 1,345 1,076 0,868 0,537 0,258 0,000
15 3,733 2,947 2,602 2,131 1,753 1,341 1,074 0,866 0,536 0,258 0,000
16 3,686 2,921 2,583 2,120 1,746 1,337 1,071 0,865 0,535 0,258 0,000
17 3,646 2,898 2,567 2,110 1,740 1,333 1,069 0,863 0,534 0,257 0,000
18 3,610 2,878 2,552 2,101 1,734 1,330 1,067 0,862 0,534 0,257 0,000
19 3,579 2,861 2,539 2,093 1,729 1,328 1,066 0,861 0,533 0,257 0,000
20 3,552 2,845 2,528 2,086 1,725 1,325 1,064 0,860 0,533 0,257 0,000
21 3,527 2,831 2,518 2,080 1,721 1,323 1,063 0,859 0,532 0,257 0,000
22 3,505 2,819 2,508 2,074 1,717 1,321 1,061 0,858 0,532 0,256 0,000
23 3,485 2,807 2,500 2,069 1,714 1,319 1,060 0,858 0,532 0,256 0,000
24 3,467 2,797 2,492 2,064 1,711 1,318 1,059 0,857 0,531 0,256 0,000
25 3,450 2,787 2,485 2,060 1,708 1,316 1,058 0,856 0,531 0,256 0,000
26 3,435 2,779 2,479 2,056 1,706 1,315 1,058 0,856 0,531 0,256 0,000
27 3,421 2,771 2,473 2,052 1,703 1,314 1,057 0,855 0,531 0,256 0,000
28 3,408 2,763 2,467 2,048 1,701 1,313 1,056 0,855 0,530 0,256 0,000
29 3,396 2,756 2,462 2,045 1,699 1,311 1,055 0,854 0,530 0,256 0,000
30 3,385 2,750 2,457 2,042 1,697 1,310 1,055 0,854 0,530 0,256 0,000
40 3,307 2,704 2,423 2,021 1,684 1,303 1,050 0,851 0,529 0,255 0,000
60 3,232 2,660 2,390 2,000 1,671 1,296 1,045 0,848 0,527 0,254 0,000
120 3,160 2,617 2,358 1,980 1,658 1,289 1,041 0,845 0,526 0,254 0,000
3,090 2,576 2,326 1,960 1,645 1,282 1,036 0,842 0,524 0,253 0,000
0.95
0,8
1,125
0,750
0,4
0,375
0,2
0.95
0,000 0,0
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5