Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
2
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
263 International
River Basins
http://www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu/
3
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
4
http://www.whymap.org
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Water is scarce,
poorly distributed in time & space
http://www.waterandnature.org/eatlas/html/gm16.html
5
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
7
(Quotes collected in Dinar et al. 2008)
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
8
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
9
A Conflict - Cooperation Continuum
the Water Event Intensity Scale
10
Yoffe et al. (2003)
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Transboundary Water
Interaction NexuS Matrix
11
Zeitoun, M. and N. Mirumachi (2008)
Cooperation is more frequent
than conflict over water
Between 1918 and 1994, more than 200 treaties
were signed; yet only 37 reported cases of inter-
state violence (mostly related to Israel).
Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database
9% 1%
145 treaties analyzed
4%
Hydroelectric Power
4%
Water Consumption
39%
6% Industrial Use
Navigation
Pollution
Flood Control
Fishing
12
37%
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
13
Conflict and Cooperation :
Identifying Risk Factors via
Empirical Analysis
14
Pics: Wolf et al 2003
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
15
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
16
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
17
Theoretical Perspectives
18
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Realism
• States are in
competition
• Goal is military
security and survival
• Power is key
• Relative gains 19
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Liberalism
• Underlying harmony
in interests
• Mutual gain from
cooperating
• Institutions are key
• Absolute gains 20
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
22
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
23
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
25
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
26
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
• No appreciable harm
27
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
• Risk of breakdown
– Default value/ reservation utility
– Impatience or temporal issues
– Credible threats
• Reliable expectations
• Third-party involvement
30
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Interpretation intractibility
• Analytic uncertainty: lack of knowledge of
the expected outcomes
– What will be the result
• Framing ambiguity: different perspectives
on a problem and its solution
– Scarcity/wastefulness? Dykes/floodplains?
• Incommensurability: irreconcilable values
and unacceptable tradeoffs
– Ecosystems vs livelihoods 31
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
32
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
• Flexiblity
– adapt to changing values, technologies and
market conditions
34
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Uncertainty in agreements
Types of uncertainty:
– Exogenous – related to the basin
– Endogenous – related to the agreement
36
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
37
Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Global Change
• Environmental
– E.g., climate, groundwater, emerging contaminants
• Social
– Urbanization, migration
• Political
– Jasmine revolution, increasing nationalism in the EU
• Economic
– Role of China, new aid networks
– Sovereign wealth funds, global corporations
• Increasing transnational networks
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Contact: a.milman@uea.ac.uk