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Future of Energy:
Digital for Coal-Fired Plants
A Global Perspective on Benefits of
Operations Optimization for Coal Power
Executive Summary World net electricity generation by fuel, 2012-2040
(trillion kilowatthours)
The global power system is in the early days of a massive
transformation, and coal is at the center of the change. 40
Availability and use of renewable energy generation, Petroleum
35
such as wind and solar power, is on the rise. But the Nuclear
15 Coal
Renewable energy is not a passing trend. Since 2005, 870
gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy capacity have been 10
added to the global electric power system. In 2014, 37
GW of hydropower, 51 GW of wind power, and 40 GW of 5 Renewables
Regardless of each region’s unique balance, the conclusion is that coal will remain part of the energy mix well into the next
century for some countries. It isn’t really a question of if coal will be leveraged, rather how to best use it to meet power needs
in a mix with renewables while minimizing environmental impact in the face of growing emission regulations.
Over the next decade, there will be $1.3 trillion of value to be captured in the digital transformation of electricity. With
software and data analytics, combined with advanced hardware, new digitally-enhanced power generation will deliver greater
reliability, affordability and sustainability, helping lower costs, improve efficiencies, create growth opportunities and lower
emissions for coal fired operations.2
Those coal power organizations that embrace the power of digital to operate their plants with greater efficiencies while
driving down emissions will be well positioned to thrive in the changing environment of the energy sector. For early adopter
coal plants owners with an eye towards future viability, the promise of digitization and flexibility is great — often meaning
the difference between obsolescence and commercial success.
European Union
Ukraine (1%) as a whole (14%)
Canada (2%) Poland (1%) Russian Federation (2%)
Sweden (1%)
Kazakhstan (<1%)
Denmark (<1%)
UK (1%)
Germany (2%)
US (15%) 14%
Belgium (<1%)
15% Republic of Korea (1%)
France (2%)
20% Japan (2%)
Italy (1%)
Morocco (<1%) Turkey (1%) China (20%)
Cyprus (<1%) 9%
Mexico (1%) Dominican Egypt (<1%)
Republic (<1%)
Source: “Roadmap for a Renewable Energy Future,” International Renewable Energy Agency, 2016
American share of electricity generation 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
from renewables and nuclear is Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Monthly Energy Review, March 2016
projected to increase from 38% to 45%
in 2025.3
The global share of renewable energy
Changing North American electricity generation mix in total final energy consumption is
2015 2025 Reference case set to increase by approximately 40%
6
projection from 335 EJ1 in 2010 to 445 EJ by
5
2030. Based on existing technologies,
29% Renewables renewable energy use can reach
20%
Trillion killowatt hours
(Mtoe)
11.9% 20%
result, coal plants are being impacted.
1600
EU energy use is now nearly 10% below a 2006 peak
1500
and has returned to levels last seen in the early 1990s.7
The European Commission’s 2030 Climate and Energy 1400
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Framework has a goal of 27% energy savings for 2030.
ItP(t) EU-28: Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe) 2020 Target
Not only is energy usage in the EU declining but sources of
Source: “Statistical Review of World Energy,” BP, 2014
energy, as in North America, are shifting as well. There is
continued growth in renewable energies. Oil and coal are
on the decline. There has also been a decline in nuclear Power mix in the EU
power which is expected to continue into 2030 as plants
face closure due to age and lack of popularity as an 35%
energy source.8
30%
While indicators clearly show the decline in the use of 25%
coal for energy in the EU overall (declines by two-fifths
20%
since 1990), usage by specific member states can vary
15%
widely — some remain heavily dependent on coal. There
10%
is a concentration of coal reliance in Eastern Europe, with
Poland deriving more than half of its energy from coal. 5%
Source: Eurostat
Source: Eurostat
China Challenges
As China continues to deliver on its China’s electricity generation capacity (GW) by energy source
commitment to diversify power sources,
coal plants will face the same challenges Year End Dec. 2014 2015 %Chg GW added
that those in developed countries are
facing now. And as recent changes in
Thermal 918.6 990.2 7.8% 71.6
China’s coal plant construction priorities
may show, China could be facing these
challenges sooner than the expected. Nuclear 20.1 26.1 29.9% 6.0
Not only will the nation’s older plants
need to adapt, but even more importantly
for China, new coal plants will need be Hydro 304.5 319.4 4.9% 14.9
planned thoughtfully — not just growth
for growth’s sake — and be able to
Wind 96.9 129.3 33.5% 32.5
integrate into a system of energy sources
both seamlessly and efficiently. There are
opportunities for China power producers
Solar 24.9 43.2 73.7% 18.3
to embrace digitization and analytics
to enable coal plants to become more
flexible in the face of increasing renewable Total capacity 1,365.0 1,508.3 10.5% 143.3
energy. This can be accomplished while
reducing emissions to more rapidly meet
Source: China’s National Bureau of Statistics Data, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial
their clean air goals. Analysis (IEEFA) Calculations
TWh
country’s energy infrastructure and economic historical projected
development. Coal accounts for roughly 68% 4,000
of electricity generation in India. Coal’s use in
power generation will likely have to expand to 2 3,000
billion tonnes by 2031–2032 in order to meet the
country’s growing electricity needs.17 2,000
from current level of 1163 TWh to 1900 TWh by Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal
2020 and 3300 TWh by 2040.18 Source: “India Energy Outlook”, International Energy Agency (2015), World Energy
Outlook 2015, OECD Publishing, Paris
To meet future demands and with a bid to push
clean energy projects, renewables will grow at
7% to reach from 79 GW to 462 GW by 2040. In 2015 India’s Finance Minister Arun Jaitley announced a target of 175 GW of
renewable energy capacity by 2022, which includes 100 GW solar power, 60 GW of wind power, 10 GW of biomass-fired power
and 5 GW of small hydropower.
Coal will remain the backbone of the India power sector and is expected to grow to 438 GW by 2040 with 41% share in total
installed capacity. Today 85% of the coal plants are based on sub-critical technology. By 2040 India will have 50% super-critical
coal plants that will boost average coal plant efficiency
from 34% to 38%.19 Coal-fired power outlook 2040
Coal energy will continue to be needed to provide continuity
500 39%
of energy supply. The India markets are very sensitive
to cost and include evening peaking requirements.
400 36%
Despite abundant sunshine, solar photovoltaic displaces
conventional sources during the daytime to save fuel costs, 300 33%
Efficiency
but will not help to meet peak demand needs in the evening.
GW
200 30%
India Challenges
As India is grappling with challenges around coal supply 100 27%
and potentially stricter emissions regulations, there is a
likelihood that use of renewables will increase by 2030.
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Those that anticipate these changes will be able to remain
competitive by modernizing and optimizing their coal Ultra-supercritical Supercritical Subcritical Average
and IGCC efficiency
plants with digital as a priority. Digitization can help the of coal fleet
(right axis)
coal fleet remain flexible without compromising efficiency
Source: “India Energy Outlook”, International Energy Agency (2015),
or emissions during variable demand periods. World Energy Outlook 2015, OECD Publishing, Paris
TWh
are starting from scratch with power plant development, 800
something that can sometimes takes decades in the 600
planning and development. 400
There are plans to scale up renewable energy in Southeast 200
Asia countries including Indonesia to provide a quarter 0
2000 2013 2020 2025 2030
of its energy mix by 2025 — up from about 6% last year.
Other Renewables Hydro Nuclear Gas Oil Coal
Indonesia, along with Thailand and Vietnam are among the
Source: IEA, Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2015, New Policy Scenario
Southeast Asian players that have their eye on becoming
major growth markets.24
The first step in this growth agenda is to bring energy Energy mix: Southeast Asian countries
to the 615 million people in Asia Pacific with currently
no electricity today. Energy demand in Southeast Asia is Myanmar Vietnam
Generation capacity: 4.6 GW Generation capacity: 37.6 GW
expected to double by 2030. Coal is expected to be the Coal-based: 0.1 GW
Electrification rate: 34%
Coal-based: 12.8 GW
Electrification rate: 98%
dominant energy source that will help meet that demand.25
Thailand Philippines
Renewables are growing in availability and usage as well. Generation capacity: 37.6 GW
Coal-based: 7.5 GW
Generation capacity: 17.9 GW
Coal-based: 5.7 GW
Governments are currently revising their energy plans to Electrification rate: 99% Electrification rate: 88%
Australia Challenges
The constant cheap supply of coal power with a reduced need nationally has created an oversupply of electricity in Australia.30
Australian coal plant operators need to understand the best balance between exporting their abundant resource and
determining what is needed to support their own changeable mix of renewable energy. Australian coal power plants that
make the best decisions around how to meet these national challenges while supporting their own livelihoods with be in a
better position to thrive.
Generation (GW)
and renewables, dispatch varies. This National
Renewable Energy Laboratory simulation shows 50
what this mix might look like across a week’s time
frame. 25
The expectation that coal plants ramp up and cycle
on and off to complement growing usage of natural 0
gas and the availability of renewable energy sources Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Mar 29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Apr 01
is putting a strain on their infrastructure and creating Curtailment Wind PV CSP Storage Other
inefficiency that are impacting profitability. Gas CT Gas CC Hydro Geothermal Coal Nuclear
Cycling can damage a plant and impact its life (annual load served by 25% wind, 8% solar photovoltaic). Notes: PV = solar
expectancy compared to base load operations. But photovoltaic; CSP = concentrated solar power; CT = combustion turbine;
CC = combined cycle
strategic modifications, software and analytics and
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
operational changes can minimize the impact and
cost of cycling.34
Coal plants are challenged to balance the tradeoffs
between meeting demand and taking advantage of
favorable market pricing. All coal plants grapple with Trade-offs for coal plant operation
finding a balance with these tradeoffs. Analytics Optimize Dispatch
and optimization solutions can automate this
process, allowing plant owners to set their business
Reduce Improve Efficiency
strategies, constraints and desired outcomes.
Production Costs (Heat rate)
Challenges for global power generators and utilities
revolve around four areas:
• First, they must improve the operating
efficiencies within the installed fleet by bringing Improve Reduce
them up to current industry standards; Reliability Emissions
• And finally, they must plan for the impact of Coal power plant tradeoffs demand balancing by analytics
increasing renewables and become more flexible
over time, while remaining profitable.
OPERATIONS OPTIMIZATION
Operations
Plant Optimization
Evaluation
S M T W T F S
Drives improvement Helps Improves Improves start Improves the Improves MV Effectively
in thermal overall MW & HR time, start fuel, company’s return & HR forecasts manages and
performance, across the plant ramp rate and on assets with vs. ambient lowers emission
operational against baseline minimum load more accurate conditions by rates for NOX,
flexibility, system by helping central by providing dispatch determining the SOX and CO2 by
availability, capacity operations insights that help offerings at recommended determining
and emissions increase Plant Managers lower operating configuration to the operating
by providing a production, identify optimal costs including achieve dispatch thresholds
consistent, accurate improve heat configuration, cycle efficiency, targets including during start up,
and easy-to- rate and manage process, or uptime, flexibility start up, ramp, turndown, full
understand view operating operational and start costs operating costs load or part load
of operations, margins across settings of especially when and margin goals. in compliance
performance metrics the fleet. each major participating with regulatory
and decision support component in capacity guidelines and
across the fleet. within the plant. markets. emission goals.
12,000
CO2 reduction of
11,226
million Mt 469
10,757
million Mt million Mt
or
10,000
CO2 before CO2 after
4.2%
Digital Power Plant Digital Power Plant
Burning Burning
~1.1 Billion fewer 500 Billion Pounds less
barrels of oil annually coal annually
Why GE?
GE Power is a world leader in power generation with deep domain expertise to help customers deliver electricity from a wide
spectrum of fuel sources. We are transforming the electricity industry with the digital power plant, the world’s largest and
most efficient gas turbine, full balance of plant, upgrade and service solutions as well as our data-leveraging software. Our
innovative technologies and digital offerings help make power more affordable, reliable, accessible and sustainable.
9. “International Energy Outlook,” United States Energy 26. “South East Asia Coal Demand and Imports
Information Administration, 2016 Presentation,” SCG Consulting, U.S. Energy Information
Administration Conference, 2016
10. “What future in Europe for ‘vilified’ coal and gas power
plants?” PowerEngineering International, 2016 27. “National Energy Forecasting Report,” Australian Energy
Market Operator (AEMO) 2016
11. “Wind in Power,” European Wind Energy Association,
2016 28. “National Energy Forecasting Report,” Australian Energy
Market Operator (AEMO) 2016
12. “Technology Roadmap High-Efficiency, Low-Emissions
Coal-Fired Power Generation,” Internal Energy Agency, 29. “National Energy Forecasting Report,” Australian Energy
2013 Market Operator (AEMO) 2016
13. “China Delivers Global Record Wind and Solar Installs 30. “State of the Energy Market,” Australian Energy
While National Coal Consumption Drops,” Institute for Regulator, 2016
Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, 2016 31. “International Energy Outlook,” U.S. Energy Information
14. “On Promoting the Orderly Development of China’s Coal,” Administration, 2016
Chinese Government National Development and Reform 32. “International Energy Outlook,” U.S. Energy Information
Commission and the National Energy Administration, Administration, 2016
2016 33. “State of Renewable Energy in South Africa,” South Africa
15. “Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic Department of Energy, 2015
of China on the 2015 National Economic and Social 34. “Power Plant Cycling Costs,” National Renewable Energy
Development,” National Bureau of Statistics of China, Laboratory, 2012
2016
35. Estimates based on the EPA Greenhouse Gas Equivalents
16. “Coal Markets in Motion,” Brookings Institution, 2015
Calculator.
17. “Coal Markets in Motion,” Brookings Institution, 2015
36. Estimate based on the global average for vehicle
18. “International Energy Outlook,” U.S. Energy Information emissions.
Administration, 2016
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