3/20/2018 UP: Math Versus Reality - The Economic Times - Mumbai, 2018-03-20

CONTRARY TO…

UP: Math Versus Reality

BJP’s 2019 job in the state is tough. Here’s why SP-BSP will have it
tougher
Saubhik Chakrabarti

Yogi Adityanath would have certainly wanted a happier first anniversary for his government. But that’s
UP. India’s electoral bellwether state is, however, as capable of bruising political egos as it is
unamenable to simple political math.

So, the most important question for 2019 polls is not how many seats an SP-BSP grand alliance will
win in UP. It’s actually two questions. First, will SP and BSP be able to stitch an UP-wide vote transfer
alliance that works at the ground level? Second, how will UP voters assess the national governance
relevance of an SP-BSP alliance?

Sure, BJP’s job in UP has become tougher. It swept the state in 2014 with 42.63% vote share. But SP’s
and BSP’s vote shares in that election add up to 42.12% — almost the same as BJP’s, even in a year the
Narendra Modi wave was rolling.

True, this math doesn’t capture all of reality. But SP-BSP’s combined vote share for 2014 frames the
problem. That’s why BJP says it’s aiming for 50% vote share in 2019. Therefore, five years after the
Modi wave, BJP has to maintain its vote share and get an extra 7% or so.

The party’s campaign concentrates on UP’s 80% Hindus. Of this, SP’s (Yadav, 9%) and BSP’s (Jatav
and Chamar, 12%) so-called core voting population adds up to around 21%.

BJP attracted some support from non-Yadav OBCs (around 36%) and non-Jatav scheduled castes
(around 9%) in 2014. Plus, upper castes (around 20%) are supposed to be its comfort zone.

So, for a 50% vote share, BJP will need bigger chunks of votes from non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav
SCs, and retain its hold on upper castes. Plus, it will likely need some defections from SP’s and BSP’s
core voters.

What are BJP’s battlefield options? An Amit Shah-designed get-out-the vote machine fuelled by
gargantuan amounts of campaign cash and ultradetailed caste/candidate planning, asking for votes in
Modi’s name and his welfare policies, offering well-timed, new voter sops (no one should rule this out)
and banking on some proof of good governance from Yogi.

Yogi’s 2018-19 budget pegs UP’s growth at 8% this fiscal. This is good but not brilliant. The state’s
performance in power supply, law and order and roads seems positive, while on basic welfare issues
and farm loan waiver implementation, the jury is out. So, Yogi’s performance in his second year in
power will be critical for BJP in UP.

UP-and-Coming

BJP may also have a caste-balancing problem: UP watchers say non-Yadav OBCs especially are
complaining about upper-caste ‘dominance’ in the state’s administrative command structure. If true,

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3/20/2018 UP: Math Versus Reality - The Economic Times - Mumbai, 2018-03-20

BJP will have to address that, while making sure it keeps upper castes happy.

So, yes, it’s tough for BJP. But look what SP and BSP are in for. Let’s get back to our questions.

First, can the alliance work at the ground level?

SP and BSP are highly transactional outfits. This can make a big difference. In 2014, a large majority
of SP and BSP candidates in UP’s 80 seats were, respectively, non-Yadav and non-Jatav. That’s not
changing radically given the relatively small combined size of these parties’ core constituencies (just
over 20% of UP).

So, SP and BSP will again bank on locally powerful non-Yadavs and non-Jatavs in a majority of seats.
In the event of an alliance, some of these local chieftains will have to give up their candidature.

But in highly transactional outfits, sacrifices don’t come easy. What comes easy is looking for other
sources of poll-time patronage. BJP will be waiting for this. Defections by some ground-level
influencers of SP and BSP, their appearance as, say, third party candidates, is a real possibility.

Look at another number. Polling data show that in around 30 of UP’s 80 seats, vote shares of SP and
BSP were similar (the difference in their votes in percentage terms was less than 20%). Who will get
which of these seats will be fiendishly complicated to sort out, with the added complexity of angry
local influencers denied tickets.

Also, Yadavs and Jatavs don’t share apretty history. Ground-level vote transfers will certainly have to
contend with that, especially when it comes to transfer of SP votes to the ‘Dalit party’.

And, there’s the possibility of what pundits call counter-polarisation: non-Yadav and non-Dalit Hindu
voters come together to counter a Yadav-Dalit-Muslim vote. In UP’s ruthless poll politics, there are
many ways and means — to engender such counter-polarisation.

Second question: what’s the nationalgovernance relevance of an SP-BSP Lok Sabha alliance?

Assume that an SP-BSP alliance gets more seats than BJP in UP in 2019. What does that mean for
UP’s citizens? If BJP still cobbles together a national government, it means virtually nothing.

Now assume a jumbo Opposition alliance comes to power. Where will UP’s regional parties be? Will
they call the shots in that alliance? Can SP and BSP even share power without bitter squabbles?

The Core Gets Hotter

From a state that elected a Prime Minister who has enormous influence on his party and government,
UP may become a state that has at best uncertain influence on national policy.

Won’t UP’s voters consider this? Sure they will. Because on the other side of the equation, is a Modi-
led BJP fighting for another single-party national majority, with UP at the core of its plans.

So, yes, UP in 2019 is tough for BJP. But it’s perhaps tougher for SP and BSP.

saubhik.chakrabarti@timesgroup.com

In highly transactional outfits such as SP and BSP, sacrifices don’t come easy. What comes easy is looking
for other sources of poll-time patronage

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3/20/2018 UP: Math Versus Reality - The Economic Times - Mumbai, 2018-03-20

Take a seat, or two

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