Certification Exam Module Topics

Certified Professional Forecaster (CPF)

To earn the CPF designation, one must pass exam modules 1 to 3.

EXAM MODULE 1 WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ■ What to look for in the data — inconsistency in the data,
ABOUT BUSINESS FORECASTING seasonality, extreme values, structural change, data
integrity, etc.
ROLE OF FORECASTING IN BUSINESS ■ How to handle different problems in the data including
■ Why forecasting is important inconsistency in the data, seasonality, number of days in a
■ How forecasting is used by different functions month, extreme values and structural change
■ Role of a forecaster/demand planner
TYPES OF MODELS
THE FORECASTING PROCESS (Only general understanding is needed, except for time-series models)
■ Role of management in forecasting ■ Time-series models
■ Forecasting requirements ■ Cause-and-effect models
■ Forecasting process ■ Judgmental models
■ Forecasting approach
■ Reconciliation of bottom-up and top-down forecasts TIME-SERIES MODELS
■ Role of judgment in forecasting ■ Averages, weighted averages, and moving averages
■ Demand management/demand planning ■ Exponential smoothing (single, double and triple)
■ Forecasting and marketing research ■ Trend
■ Managing forecast uncertainty & risk ■ Classical decomposition
■ Cumulative sales index
COLLABORATIVE PROCESS
■ Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP) FORECAST ACCURACY
■ Vendor Managed Inventory (VMI) program ■ Forecasting metrics
■ Collaborative Planning, Forecasting ■ Tracking and improving forecasting performance
and Replenishment (CPFR) ■ Selection and maintenance of a forecast model
■ Consensus forecasting ■ Aggregation and disaggregation of forecasts
■ Jointly Managed Inventory (JMI) ■ Consolidating SKUs into categories, and
■ Efficient Consumer Response (ECR) categories into overall total
■ Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) ■ Disaggregating the overall total into categories
■ Effect of forecast accuracy on the supply chain, and categories into SKUs
inventory turns, and the bottom line BASIC KNOWLEDGE OF MS-EXCEL

EXAM MODULE 2 DATA SOURCES, DATA ANALYSIS & EXAM MODULE 3 FORECAST REPORTING AND
TREATMENT, AND TIME SERIES COMMUNICATION SKILLS
MODELS
FORECAST REPORTING AND PRESENTATION
DATA ■ Selling (buy-in) forecasts to end users
■ Types of data: shipment data, order data, ■ Politics of forecasting
syndicated/POS data, etc. ■ Translating technical material into simple language
■ “Slicing and dicing of data” ■ Validating forecasts (i.e., Why you think the forecast is
■ Sources of data and data collection accurate?)
■ Data analysis and data treatment ■ Balance score cards and how they impact inventory

Advanced Certified Professional Forecaster (ACPF)

One must be a Certified Professional Forecaster (CPF) to qualify.
To earn the ACPF designation, one must pass exam modules 4 & 5.

EXAM MODULE 4 FORECAST MODELING (Advanced) ■ New product forecasting

■ Combining different forecasts
REGRESSION MODELING
■ How to structure a regression model EXAM MODULE 5 FORECASTING SYSTEMS/PACKAGE
■ How to diagnose the quality of a model ■ Data synchronization
■ How to improve upon a model ■ Forecasting system vs. forecast software package
■ How to use what/if scenario and simulation ■ Forecasting system: applications and architecture
■ Event/promotional modeling ■ What to look for in selecting and setting up a forecast
ARIMA MODELING/BOX-JENKINS system
■ How to structure a model ■ System implementation
■ How to diagnose the quality of a model ■ Managing a forecasting system
■ How to improve upon a model ■ What to look for in selecting forecasting software package

To Register, tel. 800.440.0499 or 516.504.7576
web. www.ibf.org/cert.cfm
email. certification@ibf.org 5