Airbus Global Market Forecast 2017-2036 Growing Horizons Full Book

The world is a book
and those who do

not travel read only
one page.
Augustine of Hippo
Growing horizons 001
Introduction
With aviation’s growth and the shortening of travel
times to almost any point on the globe, the world has
metaphorically become a much smaller place. Journeys
which just a generation ago would have taken weeks can
now be achieved in a day or even less. For the passenger
however, aviation has provided much more. It has also
grown individual horizons, expanding exponentially the
places, people, cultures and experiences that travellers
can access with just a few clicks to book their flights.
The United Nations World Tourism Organisation has shown
how travel for tourism purposes has expanded globally:
in the 1950’s, the top 15 country destinations absorbed
98% of all international tourist arrivals; in the 70’s the
proportion was 75%, in the new millennium this fell to less
than 60% and is sure to fall further. This clearly shows
the emergence of new travel destinations, many of them
in developing countries.
But does travel grow horizons? A survey carried out
in 2016, of people who have taken time from their
professional lives to travel, stated that over 80% had
learned more about the places, people, and cultures
they had visited, more than 80% also said they had new
experiences, 60% made new friends, and interestingly
nearly 70% said they learned more about themselves.
But we really don’t need statistics or surveys to tell us
this; we have all experienced the knowledge and personal
understanding of the world and it’s people that travel and
in particular air travel can bring.
We hope that you find the 2017 Global Market Forecast
informative and useful. We seek to improve our analyses
continually, and your questions, challenges and suggestions
help us advance towards this goal. Don’t forget you can
download our App to your smartphone. It complements
the forecast and enables you to have facts, figures and
insights at your fingertips wherever you go. If all you want
are the numbers, you can also download an excel sheet
from Airbus.com.
002 Growing horizons
01 02 03 04
Executive Demand Network Demand for
summary for air travel & Traffic passenger
005 011 forecast aircraft
021 031
Growing horizons 003
05 06 07 08
Demand Freighter Services Methodology &
by region forecast forecast summary data
041 099 107 117
043 Asia-Pacific
051 Europe
059 North America
067 Middle East
075 L atin America
& Caribbean
083 Commonwealth
of Independent
States
091 Africa
01
Executive
summary
Executive summary 005
• Strong and resilient passenger traffic growth.

• Air traffic (RPK) doubles every 15 years. Air transport is
• As air transport develops, drivers evolve, with some
a growth market
becoming more significant, including private consumption.
• Demand for 34,900 new aircraft by 2036:
~34,170 passenger aircraft and 730 freighters
60%
~40% of passenger aircraft demand needed growth over
for replacement, and ~60% for growth. the last ten years
• Single-aisle represent 71% of units, and widebodies
represent 54% of value. More than double
• Asia Pacific will account for 41% of the demand, since 9/11
with the US and Europe together representing 36%.
World annual traffic (trillion RPK*) Asian WTC Attack Financial

Oil Crisis Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis Crisis SARS Crisis
7
5
+60%
4
+110%
3
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
*RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometres
AIR TRAVEL HAS PROVED TO

BE RESILIENT TO EXTERNAL
SHOCKS
Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF 2017
008 Executive summary
Passenger aircraft above 100 seats, freighter aircraft above 10 tonnes

45,000
42,530
40,000
35,000
22,030 Growth
30,000
34,900
25,000 20-year
New deliveries
20,000
15,000
12,870 Replacement
10,000 20,500
5,000
7,630 Stay
0
Beginning 2017 2036 New deliveries
FLEET IN SERVICE EVOLUTION
Source: Airbus GMF 2017
Rounded figures to the nearest 10
30,000
24,810
5.3
25,000
20,000 $US trillion
15,000
10,000 8,690
5,000
1,410
0
Single-aisle Twin-aisle Very Large Aircraft
% units 71% 25% 4%

% value 46% 44% 10%
20-YEAR NEW DELIVERIES OF
PASSENGER AND FREIGHTER
AIRCRAFT: 34,900 UNITS
34,170 New 730

Deliveries
34,900
Passenger Freighter
Fleet Converted Fleet
1,220
Remarketed
& stay
in service
5,950 Retired
11,710 1,160
PASSENGER AIRCRAFT
12,870 ABOVE 100 SEATS
AND FREIGHTER AIRCRAFT
ABOVE 10 TONS
2017 2027 2017 SHARE OF 2017-2036

2026 2036 2036 NEW DELIVERIES
AFRICA 350 700 1,050 3%
ASIA-PACIFIC 6,140 8,140 14,280 41%
CIS 340 860 1,200 3%
EUROPE 2,640 4,180 6,820 20%
LATIN AMERICA 940 1,730 2,670 8%
MIDDLE EAST 1,260 1,270 2,530 7%
NORTH AMERICA 2,360 3,260 5,620 16%
FREIGHTERS 410 320 730 2%
WORLD TOTAL 14,440 20,460 34,900 100%
NEW AIRCRAFT
DEMAND PASSENGER
AND FREIGHTERS
02
Demand for
air travel
Demand for air travel 011
012 Demand for air travel
THOUGHTS ON THE SHORT TERM

_
• Oil and jet fuel prices are an important component in
airline operating costs, with their relatively low levels, whilst Airlines had an
not the whole story, playing a large part in the improved
airline profitability during the period. Airlines had an
operating result of
operating result of $58.3 billion in 2016.
• In the short to medium term, forecasts suggest that oil
$ 58.3
and jet fuel prices will recover over time, although may not billion in 2016
reach the peak levels of the past.
Current US$
Jet fuel price (US$ per gallon) 2016 US$
4
History Forecast
0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
JET FUEL PRICES FORECAST
TO RECOVER IN THE MEDIUM
TERM
Source: IHS Energy,
Airbus GMF 2017
• Passenger traffic grew impressively again in 2016, with

6.3% year over year growth, supporting an increase in the
passenger fleet of aircraft over 100 seats to over 19,000
aircraft, and also supporting record levels of deliveries from
the manufacturers.
PASSENGER TRAFFIC YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH
RPK growth (%)
14
12
10
-2
-4
1995 2000 2005 2010 2016
PASSENGER AIRCRAFT* IN SERVICE

Number of aircraft
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2016
* Western-built passenger aircraft ≥100 seats
• At time of writing, leading indicators for the industry remain IMPRESSIVE TRAFFIC
positive, with aircraft more productive and the share of stored GROWTH, SUPPORTING
aircraft in the fleet continuing to fall. Combined with record MORE AIRCRAFT IN SERVICE
load factors all are positive signs that supply and demand are Source: ICAO, Ascend,
currently well balanced and that the airlines and fleet continue Airbus GMF 2017
to operate more efficiently.
THE LONG TERM

_
• Whilst GDP remains an important driver for air transport,
it is clear that it is not the only factor that drives air traffic
growth. In its traffic forecast, Airbus uses as many as
15 different explanatory variables. From the word cloud
below you can see many of these different variables, with
their size representing the number of times they have been
used across the more than 100 traffic flows modelled in
the Airbus traffic forecast.
• Other drivers that define where and how air travel
will develop are factors such as the evolution of airline
business model, liberalisation, and tourism development.
GDP Working Age

Population
PRIVATE
Crude Oil Price
Labor Force
CONSUMPTION Unemployment
IMPORTS
Domestic Investment
EXPORTS
Disposable personal income
TOTAL POPULATION
Government Consumption Urban Population
Industrial Production Index Fixed Investment
EMPLOYMENT
Nominal Change in Inventory
• By examining some real world examples it can be seen
how these drivers can shape and influence markets, and will
ultimately determine what characteristics such as range and
size will be delivered in the future by manufacturers.
THE TRANS-ATLANTIC EXAMPLE

_
• The trans-Atlantic market is a good example of how several
drivers can stimulate growth even on a market which is
considered mature. In fact this market has grown 50% in the
last 15 years.
• Whilst many of the routes have their origins at the start of
the air transportation era, significant growth was enabled by
bi-lateral agreements on both sides of the Atlantic. A second
period of growth has been enabled by economic growth in
both the US and Europe where real GDP has grown ~30% The trans-Atlantic
in the last 20 years, but also as new business models like the market has grown
Low cost Carriers (LCCs) have entered the market.
• Taking the London New York route as an example, origin
and destination traffic has grown by 25% in the last 3 years.
50%
In the first half of 2016, low cost carriers transported 7% in the last 15 years
of the passengers.
PASSENGER TRAFFIC BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE US

RPK (Billion)
500
450
400
350
+47%
300
250 +186%
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
NORTH ATLANTIC TRAFFIC
HAS GROWN NEARLY 50%
IN THE LAST 15 YEARS
Source: US Bureau of
Transportation Statistics, Airbus
• Interestingly the incumbent carriers and alliances have also

grown the number of passengers they are carrying.
• These additional passengers, at least in part, have chosen
to travel due to the lower prices on offers, which have also
resulted in lower yields and a greater focus on operational
efficiency and equipment by the airlines in recent years.
250
200
150
100
50
0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
LON-NYC TRAFFIC
STIMULATED BY LCC’S
AND EXISTING OPERATORS
Source: Sabre, Airbus GMF 2017
LIBERALISATION & TOURISM

_
• As well as growth on existing routes, positive political
activity between states can also lead to growth, due to the
fact that organic growth has been constrained. Two recent
examples are Iran and Cuba.
• Already the agreement with Iran has led to more capacity
being added from 2015 to 2016, with 10% more international
capacity being added, with double digit growth to many
destinations.
• The Iranian government would like to grow tourism,
another key driver for aviation growth. Reports have stated
that they would like to grow the number of tourism arrivals International
from 4.8 million in 2014, to 20 million by 2025.
capacity growth
• Already today, tourism infrastructure is being built with in 2016 for Iran
three new hotels opening in Tehran since 2015. One major
hotel chain’s CEO has said given the size of population
and economy he sees capacity for a hundred hotels for
their chain alone.
10%
UAE
Turkey
Qatar
Germany
China
Iraq
Kuwait
Malaysia
Italy
Thailand
Austria
Oman
India
Azerbaijan
UK
Russia
France
Afghanistan
Greece
Kazakhstan
0 1 2 3 4
STRONG CAPACITY INCREASE

TO ALL MAJOR MARKETS
FROM/TO IRAN IN 2016
Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2017
• Cuba is another example where improving geo-politics

has allowed for enhanced air links with ten US airlines
starting operations in 2016, and more than 300,000
monthly seats offered today, twice that offered in 2008.
Market dynamics will continue to evolve as airlines match
capacity to demand, infrastructure for visitors to the island
develop and as geo-politics in the region evolves further.
Monthly seats offered between the US and Cuba (thousand)

350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2016/01 2016/04 2016/07 2016/10 2017/01
ALREADY MORE THAN 300K
MONTHLY SEATS OFFERED
BETWEEN USA AND CUBA
Source: OAG, Airbus
• Aviation mega-cities are an important component of

the world’s aviation network today and will be a more
important part in the future. It is no surprise therefore
that Euromonitor data published in 2017, show all but
one of the top ten cities in 2015, by visitor numbers is
either an Aviation Mega-city today, or in the future.
Hong Kong, China 26.7m
Bangkok, Thailand 18.7m
London, UK 18.6m
Singapore 16.9m
Paris, France 15m

Macau 14.3m
Dubai, UAE 14.3m
Istanbul, Turkey 12.4m
New York City, US 12.3m
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 12.2m

0 5 10 15 20 25 30
International tourist arrivals
AT A GLANCE - TOP 10 MOST

VISITED CITIES IN 2015
Source: Euromonitor,
Jan 2017, Airbus
Osaka, Japan 52%

Kyoto, Japan 48%
Chiang Mai, Thailand 40%
Tokyo, Japan 35%
Agra, India 28%
Delhi, India 26%
Mumbai, India 26%
Milan, Italy 18%
Mecca, Saudi Arabia 17%
Pattaya, Thailand 17%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Rise in visitor numbers in percentage
AT A GLANCE - TOP 10

CITIES WITH LARGEST
VISITOR GROWTH IN 2015
Source: Euromonitor,
Jan 2017, Airbus
03
Network
& Traffic
forecast
Network & Traffic forecast 021
022 Network & Traffic forecast
PASSENGER TRAFFIC CONTINUES

TO GROW
_
• Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) grew 6.3%
in 2016, as compared to 2015, according to ICAO figures
which were preliminary at the time of writing.
• This represents an impressive 3.7 billion passengers
carried by air in 2016.
• Over half of the world’s tourists who travel across
international borders each year are transported by air.
• Air passengers benefited from oil prices which
remained relatively low, with airlines able to choose
between stimulating the market through lower yields
and therefore ticket prices, and their margins.
• Air traffic continues to prove its resilience to
slow economic growth by outperforming global GDP,
demonstrating the world’s appreciation of the benefits
aviation brings.
• For the next 20 years, the Airbus GMF forecasts a
4.4% global annual air traffic growth, despite some
downward revision of future economic growth by a number
of forecasters in several regions of the world. In our forecast
the first decade will enjoy a 4.9% increase per year, with
4.1% average annual growth for the last decade, a lower
figure but growth in those years based on absolute traffic Air transport is
numbers higher than today.
a growth market
• We continue to monitor the reliability and validity
60%
of the Airbus GMF forecast. As an example, our GMF
2000 forecast continues to track the long term trend and
our latest forecast, despite significant market perturbations
in the years following its production. growth over
the last ten year
More than double

since 9/11
GMF long
term validity
GMF 2000
long term forecast
is still in line with
our latest forecast
World annual traffic (trillion RPK*) Asian WTC Attack Financial

Oil Crisis Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis Crisis SARS Crisis
7
5
+60%
4
+110%
3
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
*RPK = Revenue Passenger Kilometres
AIR TRAVEL HAS PROVED TO

BE RESILIENT TO EXTERNAL
SHOCKS
World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions )

History
GMF 2000 forecast
GMF 2017: 4.4% growth p.a.
World annual traffic (trillion RPK)
18
16
14
12
10
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
AIRBUS GMF PREDICTING
LONG TERM DEMAND
TRAFFIC FORECAST
_
• Asia-Pacific will lead world traffic by 2036, with a three
fold increase in the traffic serving this region by the end of
the forecast period.
• Traffic between emerging countries is forecast to grow at
6.2% per annum, and will represent a growing share of air
traffic, from 29% of world traffic in 2016 up to 40% by 2036.
North America
2.4%
Latin America
4.1%
• Domestic China will become the largest traffic flow before

the end of the forecast period. Domestic Chinese traffic is
forecast to almost quadruple, with Domestic USA increasing
by 50% from an already high base.
• The three major flows connecting Western Europe are all
expected to develop: Western-Europe – USA, Intra-Western
Europe and Western-Europe – Middle East forecast to grow
1.8, 1.6 and 2.5 times respectively.
• Amongst the Top 20 traffic flows, 50% will involve
Asia-Pacific and 25% will involve the Middle East.
2016
2036
Based on leg RPKs
CIS
Europe
3.9%
3.4%
Middle East
Africa
6.7% Asia-Pacific
5.3% 5.6%
ASIAN TRAFFIC SET TO GROW

STRONGLY
Traffic share (%)

100
90
80 41% Advanced-Advanced
70
60
50
40 30% Advanced-Emerging
30
20
10
29% Emerging-Emerging
0
2016
2016
TOP 20 TRAFFIC FLOWS IN 2036 2036
Domestic PRC x3.6

Domestic USA x1.5
Western Europe - USA x1.8
Intra Western Europe x1.6
Western Europe - Middle East x2.5
Domestic Asia emerging x3.7
Middle East - USA x4.5
Indian sub-continent - Middle East x3.4
Domestic India x5.4
PRC - USA x3.6
Asia emerging - Middle East x3.4
Asia emerging - PRC x3.8
Western Europe - PRC x2.2
Central Europe - Western Europe x2.6
Western Europe - South America x2.0
Asia advanced - Asia emerging x2.5
Asia advanced - PRC x3.0
Domestic Brazil x2.6
Intra Middle East x3.1
South America - USA x2.3
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Billion RPK (legs)
DOMESTIC CHINESE TRAFFIC

FLOW TO BE NUMBER ONE
CAGR
28%
2.5%
CAGR 32%
4.8%
CAGR
40%
6.2%
2036
TRAFFIC BETWEEN
EMERGING MARKETS TO
REPRESENT A HIGHER SHARE
OF WORLD TRAFFIC
2016
TOP 20 FASTEST GROWING FLOWS 2036
North Africa - PRC x6.2

Sub Sahara Africa - PRC x5.9
Indian sub-continent - PRC x5.9
Domestic India x5.4
Central America - Middle East x5.1
Middle East - South America x5.1
Canada - Middle East x4.5
Middle East - USA x4.5
Middle East - PRC x4.1
Asia emerging - Indian sub-continent x4.0
Middle East - South Africa x4.0
Indian sub-continent - Japan x3.7
Asia advanced - Indian sub-continent x3.7
Indian sub-continent - PRC x3.7
PRC - South Africa x3.7
Domestic PRC x3.6
Middle East - Sub Sahara Africa x3.6
PRC-USA x3.6
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Billion RPK (legs)
TOP 20 FASTEST GROWING
FLOWS OVER THE NEXT
20 YEARS
ORIGIN & DESTINATION

PASSENGER FORECAST
_
Taking Origin and Destination passengers gives a better
feel for the future volume of passengers by flow
as the distance component included in RPKs or RPMs
is removed.
TOP 20 PASSENGER FLOWS IN 2036
Domestic PRC
Domestic USA x1.4
Intra Western Europe x1.6
Domestic india x5.5
Central Europe - Western Europe x2.5
Domestic Europe x1.4
Domestic Brazil x2.6
Asia advanced - PRC x3.3
Domestic Asia advanced x1.4
Domestic Turkey x3.2
Domestic South America x2.6
Asia advanced - Asia emerging x2.5
Western Europe - USA x2.2
Indian sub-continent - Middle East x3.1
Domestic Australia/New Zealand x1.8
Western Europe - Middle East x2.2
Intra Asia advanced x2.3
Intra Middle East x3.1
0 200 400 600
In terms of Origin and Destination passengers, some

interesting results can be highlighted from our forecast.
• Almost 1.6 billion passengers are expected to travel
within China in 2036, almost four times the number of
passengers that travelled by air in 2016.
• The number of Domestic Indian passengers is expected
to grow almost six times in the next 20 years, reaching
the level as Domestic USA is today.
2016
2036
x3.6
800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

Million Passengers
TOP 20 PASSENGER
FLOWS IN 2036
(ORIGIN & DESTINATION)
Source: annualised Sept. 2016
data from Sabre, Airbus GMF2017
04
Demand for
passenger aircraft
Demand for passenger aircraft 031
032 Demand for passenger aircraft
DEMAND FOR PASSENGER AIRCRAFT

_
• In 2016, over 140 countries added 5% or more capacity
(ASKs) than in 2015. Of these, nearly 80 countries added
more than 10%. This combined with traffic growth above
the long term trend is driving demand for new aircraft
today and into the future.
• More than simply adding capacity, the world’s airlines
are also increasingly efficient in the way that they are using
aircraft. Average load factors, that is the proportion of the
seats filled in the aircraft, are at an all-time high at around
80%. Allowing for seasonality it will be difficult to move this
mark significantly higher.
• Taking into account growth in average aircraft size,
increased average utilization levels as well as higher
average load factors, aircraft are an impressive 50%
more productive in terms of traffic (RPKs) today than 20
years ago. A significant improvement coming from both
the airlines’ operational efficiency and the state of the art
aircraft being delivered today.
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
<0% [0% - 5%] [5% - 10%] >10%
LOAD FACTORS
World passenger load factors (%)
85%
80%
75%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
1995 2000 2005 2010 2016
• The Airbus forecast for passenger traffic and deliveries IMPRESSIVE AIR TRANSPORT
by broad seat category e.g. single-aisle, twin-aisle, VLA RESULT IN 2016 WITH MORE
were detailed earlier. But this top level view hides some THAN 140 COUNTRIES
of the trends developing for demand in the various aircraft ADDING 5% OR MORE
categories. CAPACITY AND LOAD
FACTORS AT A RECORD HIGH
• For some time now an overlap has existed between
Source: ICAO, OAG, Airbus
operations of twin-aisle and single-aisle aircraft types. For
example twin-aisle aircraft are used more often on routes
less than 2,000nm than single-aisle types are on the routes
longer than 2,000nm.
• The use of twin-aisle on short-haul operations, that is
routes less than 2,000nm, has increased by 26% in six years.
• In Asia-Pacific 22% of all short-haul operations are
performed by wide-body types.
• To complicate the picture whilst twin-aisle use has increased
on short-haul routes, their overall share on these routes
has decreased.
World traffic by sector length in ASK (trillion)

10
WB below 2,000nm WB operated above 2,000nm
9 SA above 2,000nm SA operated below 2,000nm
0
2000 2005 2010 2015
WIDE-BODY AND SINGLE-

AISLE OPERATIONS OVERLAP
Traffic captured by wide-bodies

on short-haul sectors in ASK (billion) Others Intra Asia-Pacific
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2010 2016
USE OF WIDE-BODIES
ON SHORT-HAUL SECTORS
HAS INCREASED BY 26%
IN SIX YEARS
Source: OAG and Airbus GMF 2017
*Short haul: below 2,000 nm
• Clearly capacity needs on these shorter sectors is one

of the key drivers for the use of twin–aisle types, but there Within Asia Pacific
22%
is also evidence that congestion, particularly in Asia is
another, with many airports in the region operationally
constrained.
• With new low Direct Operating Cost (DOC) twin-aisle of short-haul
types like the A330neo and larger long range single-aisle routes operated by
types like the A321neo, the boundary between the single- wide-body aircraft
aisle and twin-aisle worlds will continue to blur.
• Whilst the performance characteristics of aircraft is important MANY AIRPORTS IN ASIA-

for future aircraft decision making, what is possible in the cabin PACIFIC CONGESTED
is increasingly having an influence. The mix of classes, comfort, Source: FlightStats (July. 2015),
connectivity, the ability to upgrade, ancillary revenue options, Airbus GMF 2017
business model characteristics are also key. We asked our
cabin experts to give us few pointers to the future.
CABIN - WHAT’S TRENDING?

_
Airline Business Models
Airline groups continue to grow their influence in the
market as they evolve to cover different cabin-related
airline business models. Hybrid airline business models
are also developing, particularly towards medium/ long-
range operations as part of growth strategies, including a
desire to exploit new market opportunities and a way to
effectively differentiate themselves. For example full service
carriers adding cabin densification (more seats where
possible) and Low Cost Carriers increasingly attracted by
business markets and longer range operations.
• 10 out of 30 largest airlines have a LCC in their group
• 9 out of 10 largest LCCs target business travellers
Ancillary Revenues (AR)

The main ancillary revenue developments today are taking
place in the US and Europe, with Asia-Pacific following.
There is a strong focus on single-aisle aircraft operations,
given its importance in the northern hemisphere and
extending to twin-aisle operations with an increasing
relevance of cabin-related ancillary revenues. Baggage-
related elements, flexible seating and catering are all a
focus with connectivity likely to be the future core enabler.
• $ 59.2 bn ancillary revenues estimated to have been
generated in 2015
• x 2.6 growth of global ancillary revenues since 2007
• 30-40% of ancillary revenues are generated through
the cabin
Connectivity
On-board connectivity is reaching a critical mass across
both long and short-range aircraft, now moving towards
a full broadband capability. Airlines today are increasingly
exploring digital business models in order to drive a more
personalised passenger travel experience and enhance
revenue generation.
• 74 airlines offered in-flight connectivity in 2016
• More than 16,000 aircraft forecast to be equipped
with in-flight Wi-Fi by 2025
Passenger Landscape
An increasing number of «always-online» digital travellers are
demanding connectivity along the entire travel chain. These
digital passengers continue to explore and push innovative
travel business models which in turn increasingly affects
cabin and airline revenue streams.
• 100% smartphone penetration of millennials by 2018,
has been predicted
• 15% of passengers carry three mobile devices today
20-year new deliveries Typically Single-aisle

9,000
Typically Twin-aisle
8,000 8,353 incl. Very Large aircraft
7,000 7,404
6,000
5,000
4,596
4,000
3,000 3,157
2,694 2,789
2,000
1,566
1,000 1,297 1,126 1,184
0
100 125 150 175 210 250 300 350 400 450+
US$ US$ US$
2.4 trillion 2.2 trillion 0.5 trillion
Neutral seating categories
GMF 2017 NEW PASSENGER

A/C DEMAND BY NEUTRAL
SEATING CATEGORY
DEMAND FOR PASSENGER

AIRCRAFT SUMMARY
(EXCL. FREIGHTERS)
Passenger aircraft above 100 seats 40,120
40,000
35,000
30000 21,230 Growth
25,000 34,166
20-year
20,000 new deliveries
15,000
12,936 Replacement
10,000 18,890
5,000
5,954 Stay
0
Beginning 2017 2036 New deliveries
PASSENGER FLEET
IN SERVICE EVOLUTION
2016-2036
05
Demand
by region
Demand by region 041
Demand by region - Asia-Pacific 043
Asia-Pacific
MORE LIBERALISATION, MORE PASSENGERS,
MORE CONNECTIVITY
ECONOMY
_
• Although India is now outpacing China in terms of
economic growth, Asia-Pacific economic development
remains strongly linked to China and its transition to
a service/domestic consumption economy.
Meanwhile, new manufacturing hubs such as Vietnam
are also emerging in Asia.
• Domestic sources of growth - particularly private
consumption - led by China’s economic transition
to services will play a larger role in coming years.
• Asia-Pacific will continue to lead world economic
growth with forecasts suggesting average real GDP
growth of +4.1% per year over the next 20 years.
044 Demand by region - Asia-Pacific
TRENDS
_
• The Asia-Pacific is a diverse and dynamic region, with
the evolution of aviation both in the past and future not
possible to simply characterise as a whole. From South
East Asia with its important global hubs and the influence
of deregulation through ASEAN, to North East Asia with its
mix of more mature markets and growing LCC presence,
all heavily influenced by the burgeoning Chinese aviation
markets.
• Another fact is the importance of this region as a whole
to the growth of aviation at a global level both today and
in the future. As well as the region’s airlines leading others
in terms of traffic, half of the top ten countries contributing
the most traffic growth in 2016, were from Asia-Pacific.
2016 YEARLY CAPACITY GROWTH IN VOLUME (BILLION ASK) AND GROWTH RATE
China +12.7%
USA +5.2%
India +12.6%
UAE +7.7%
Spain +11.6%
UK +6.3%
Qatar +21.4%
Indonesia +9.7%
Thailand +9.2%
Vietnam +25.6%
0 20 40 60 80 100
FIVE OF THE TOP TEN
CONTRIBUTORS TO
2016 TRAFFIC GROWTH
• Helping to drive this growth is the growing presence CAME FROM ASIA
of the low cost carriers (LCCs) aided by deregulation ountry of departure; domestic
C
fully counted.
and a significant intra-regional market. Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2017
• As well as significantly growing both seats offered and

flights in very few years, it is also clear that the average
size of the aircraft offered by these airlines has also grown
significantly. In just ten years, average aircraft capacity
operated by these airlines has grown from 133 to 165 seats,
almost 25%.
• As well as seats, the average distance flown by the
LCCs in Asia-Pacific has grown by over 200 km or 21%
since 2002, from around 950 to 1,150 km in 2016.
• With these developments the seats offered by LCC’s in

the region now represents 25% of the seats on domestic
and intra-regional flows. This compares to 42% in Europe
and the CIS and 31% for North America, suggesting more
opportunity.
• Looking at a country level, the diversity of Asia-Pacific
is again evident with Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines
and Malaysia at similar levels to Europe in terms of LCC
penetration, with China and Japan for example still apparently
with room for further development given the right conditions.
LCCS NUMBER OF SEATS OFFERED AND FLIGHTS WITHIN ASIA-PACIFIC Seats offered
Seats & Flights - Base 100 in 2000 Flights
165
3,500
3,000 154
2,500
Average aircraft
capacity/flight
2,000
133
1,500
1,000
500
0 2000 2005 2010 2015
ASIA-PACIFIC LOW COST

CARRIERS GROWING
CAPACITY FASTER
THAN FREQUENCY
• China is a key market both at a regional and global level ource: OAG – September
S
and has seen rapid growth in air service and passenger of each year, Airbus GMF 2017
numbers. Chinese domestic traffic has quadrupled
in the last 10 years for example, with international traffic
more than doubling.
• Outbound tourism is one such source of growth with
the number of Chinese tourists growing rapidly in recent
years. Destinations in Asia like Thailand, Korea and Japan
figure strongly in the top 10 unsurprisingly. However,
destinations further away such as the US and Europe are
also increasingly popular, especially with the easing of
border procedures in some cases.
• According to some estimates the outbound China market

is predicted to double to over 200 million travelers annually
by 2020.
Outbound tourism from China - 2015

Top ten countries of destination (millions of tourists/year) 2010
Thailand
South Korea
Japan
Taiwan
USA
Singapore
France
Myanmar
Vietnam
Malaysia
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
CHINESE TOURIST
HORIZONS GROWING
ong Kong and Macau not shown.
H
Source: UNWTO, Airbus GMF 2017
• With a new open skies agreement, China is Australia’s
fastest growing and highest spending international visitor
market. More than 1 million Chinese tourists visited
Australia 2015-16 (up 22.3% from the year before),
and they spent almost US$7 billion during their stay.
• These tourists and other travellers to and from Australia
and China have also benefited from increased connectivity
with the number of airport pairs having doubled since 2014.
• It is a similar story between China and the US where
the number of airport pairs have doubled since 2013.
“SUPER HUBS” COMING TO CHINA?

By 2030 Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou will be firmly
placed in the world’s top 10 cities as measured by GDP;
economic strength underpinned by the domestic and
international connectivity only aviation can bring. Already
major hubs, with Beijing for example handling 8.1 million
passengers per month compared to Dubai at ~7.0 million,
over 90% comes from origin and destination traffic. In the
future, there is potential for these airports to become “super
hubs” as they develop a greater share of transit traffic to
more efficiently connect China to the rest of the world.
Regularly served airport-pairs between China and Australia
2014 Number of
airport-pairs
2014-2016
between China
and Australia
2016
THE IMPACT OF MORE

OPEN SKIES IS SIGNIFICANT
ource: OAG (September data),
S
Airbus GMF 2017
Europe
North
America 3.3%
4.5%
Services Africa
demand forecast 7.6%
MRO VALUE
$664bn Latin
America
NEW PILOTS 5.2%
219,890
NEW TECHS
228,200
Fleet in service evolution

Real Trade Real GDP Fleet size* 16,977
4.3% 4.1%
Growth
10,838
Intra-regional
& domestic New
6.0% Total deliveries
Inter-regional traffic
4.8% 5.5% 14,276
6,139
20 year
Fleet in service new Replacement
deliveries 3,438
2016 2036
6,139 16,977 14,276
Stay in service &
Remarketed 2,701
* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats Beginning 2036
** 2016-2036 CAGR 2017
CIS
5.5%
Asia-
Middle Pacific
6.0%
East
6.0%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional
New deliveries by segment

Number of new pax aircraft
Total RPK
traffic growth
9,812
Asia-Pacific
World
6.2%
5.5%
2,569 4.9%
4.1%
4.8%
4.4%
1,328
567
Single- Small Intermediate Very 2016-2026 2026-2036 2016-2036

Aisle Twin-Aisle Twin-Aisle Large
Demand by region - Europe 051
Europe
MORE AIR TRAVEL:
MORE FOR PERSONAL REASONS
ECONOMY
_
• After a decade of challenges and despite some political
uncertainties (e.g. Brexit), European consumer and business
confidence are recovering.
• European private consumption to remain the main driver
of future economic growth.
• Real GDP growth forecast at +1.7% per year between
2016 and 2036.
052 Demand by region - Europe
TRENDS
_
• Many regions are diverse in terms of their people,
economic development and in terms of aviation their
Propensity
propensity to fly. Europe is no exception with some
50 states and more than 200 languages with their to travel
propensity to fly distributed along a significant proportion In 2015, each
of the curve, with a spread of countries both above and
below the trend line. Those countries positioned further European flew
to the left and below the trend line have the potential
for more airw travel as GDP per capita develops. 1.2
• As a whole the average European took 1.2 trips trips on average
per person, but as can be seen the European picture
is more complex than that.
Propensity to travel
2016 trips per capita
10
Norway
Ireland
Spain Denmark Switzerland
Greece
Sweden
Portugal United Kingdom
Italy
1 Turkey France Germany
Bulgaria Czech Republic

Hungary
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
0,1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
2016 real GDP per capita (2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)
EUROPEANS ARE AT VARIOUS

STAGES OF ECONOMIC AND
AIR TRAVEL DEVELOPMENT
Notes: Passengers originating
from respective country
Bubble size proportional to
country population
Nonlinear regression weighted
by country population
Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics,
Airbus GMF 2017
• Positively, forecasts suggest that the European

population will continue to grow in terms of wealth,
supporting the private consumption component of GDP
which is becoming more important as an explanatory
variable for passenger traffic growth.
• European flows accounted for about 23% of global
capacity growth in 2016, as compared to 2015, a relatively
stable share of the additional growth over the last three
years. The trans-Atlantic market often considered mature
(see case study in the Demand for Air Travel section)
continues to add capacity to the network, with Intra-western
Europe stimulated by new flyers and low cost operations the
most significant of European flows in 2016 for growth, with
about 60% of the European capacity added on this flow.
Year-on-year traffic growth in volume (billion ASK)

600
Intra W Europe
W Europe - USA
C Europe - W Europe
W Europe - Middle East
500
23% Middle East - USA
Other
Domestic PRC
Domestic USA
400
Domestic Asia Emerging
Asia Emerging - PRC
PRC - USA
Domestic India
300
W : Western
C : Central
200
FLOWS INVOLVING EUROPE

REPRESENTED 23% OF
100
GLOBAL ASK GROWTH
IN 2016
Leap year effect corrected.
Thomas Cook UK reporting
to OAG in 2016 is removed.
Flows with negative growth
0 aggregated into “Other”.
2014 2015 2016 Source: OAG, Airbus GMF 2017
• Some 90% of European travellers state their purpose of

travel is for personal reasons, this compared to the US where
~70% state this reason. Working outside of home countries
with the subsequent need to visit friends and relatives (VFR)
and a growing culture of short breaks stimulated by the
availability of low fares to many city or touristic destinations
have helped stimulate intra-European air travel in recent years.
Professional, business
Trips made by EU-28 residents by purpose, Other personal

duration and destination, 2014* Visits to relatives and friends
Travellers (Million) Holidays, leisure and recreation
1,200
12%
4%
1,000
~90%
11%
800 36%
5%
15%
600
4% 42%
7%
5%
43%
400 26%
12%
48%
3%
19%
200 42%
62%
38%
66%
0
All trips From 1 to 3 nights 4 nights or over Domestic Outbond
*UK: 2013 data used
ALMOST 90% OF TRAVEL

IN EUROPE IS FOR PERSONAL
REASONS
Source: Eurostat, Airbus GMF
2017
• As part of this evolution, the Low Cost Carriers have

gradually increased the average distance of the routes
they are flying in Europe. Today, routes are on average
35% longer (+290km) compared to 2002.
Average distance flown by LCCs within Europe

Distance (Kilometer)
1,200
1,150
1,100
+35%
+290km
1,050
1,000
950
900
850
800
2005 2010 2015
• As well as the average distance for these operations LOW COST CARRIERS
growing, so too is the average capacity operated, growing HAVE BEEN OPERATING
from 147 seats in 2006 to 165 seats per flight in 2016. ON LONGER SECTORS
This growth in size is largely driven by demand on existing Source: OAG – September
routes. of each year, Airbus GMF 2017
Europe
North
America
2.9%
2.9%
Services Africa
MRO VALUE
$364bn Latin
America
NEW PILOTS 3.3%
96,970
NEW TECHS
96,600

2.8% 1.7%
Growth
3,258
Intra-regional
& domestic New
2.9% Total 4,463 deliveries
3.5% 3.3% 6,820
20 year
Fleet in service new
deliveries Replacement
2016 2036
4,463 7,721 6,820 3,562
Stay in service &

Remarketed 901
** 2016-2036 CAGR 2017
CIS
3.9%
Asia-
Pacific
Middle
East 3.3%
4.7%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional

Total RPK
traffic growth
5,249
Europe
World
4.9%
4.4%
1,039 3.5%
4.1%
3.3%
389 3.0%
143

Demand by region - North America 059
North America
PROFITING FROM GROWTH
ECONOMY
_
• US economic expansion is becoming more balanced,
with consumer spending, residential construction,
business fixed investment and government spending
all contributing to economic growth and compensating
for a strong dollar impact on trade.
• Consumer spending, supported by growth
in employment and real incomes, is compensating
for a sluggish global economy, strong dollar and excess
inventory headwinds.
• Real GDP growth is expected to hold up reasonably
well according to forecasts with an average +2.1% per
year in the 2016-2036 period, with greater business fixed
investment and R&D spending offsetting the slowdown
in labour force growth.
060 Demand by region - North America
TRENDS
_
• From the first revenue flight, the first passenger, the low
cost revolution and the drive for deregulation through 2015 net profit
bi-laterals, the region has always been at the forefront
of positive developments and innovation in the industry. North american
61%
Today, the US airline industry, a significant part of the
region, is also at the forefront of profitability with US
airlines responsible for 61% of global airline profitability in
2015, and likely to be prominent again when final figures of global airline profit
for 2016 are released.
EBIT($ Billion) Net profit ($ Billion)

35 10%
9%
30
8%
25 7%
6%
20
5%
15 4%
3%
10
2%
5
1%
0 0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016e
NORTH AMERICAN AIRLINE

PROFITABILITY HAS
INCREASED SINCE 2011
Source: ICAO, IATA,
Airbus GMF 2017
• This positive result was in part delivered by low oil prices

but also a continued focus on other cost, as well as
maintaining/improving revenue through ancillary revenues.
• The airlines in the region have also embarked on significant
fleet renewal with the latest generations of aircraft types,
which should help them meet increased demand and the
need to improve costs in the coming years.
• The short-haul market continues to dominate the North
American market, with the US domestic market the world’s
largest today. However, the long-haul market (routes over
2,000 nm) has seen the number of seats offered grow
by a third since 2010.
Evolution of the capacity offered from/to USA and Canada

Seats offered distribution in 2016
20m seats
Short-haul
Long-haul
80m seats
Evolution of the capacity offered from first passenger, from/to USA and Canada Long-haul
Seats offered evolution (Base 100 in 2010) Short-haul
140
+34%
130
120
110
+7%
100
90
80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
• This additional capacity has been possible with SEATS OFFERED ON LONG-
the increase in the propensity to travel of the people in HAUL FLIGHTS GREW FASTER
this market. A recent survey for example has highlighted THAN ON SHORT-HAUL
the development of the US market, suggesting that the FLIGHTS
flying population had grown from 21% in 1971 to 49% Source: OAG (September data
in 2016. From these, the average number of trips was just annualised), Airbus GMF 2017
Short haul: below 2,000 nm
over four per year, with 51% travelling for leisure, 31%
for business, 18% for other reasons including VFR
(visiting friends and relatives).
US Airlines load factors

Loads Factors (%)
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
jan-00 jan-01 jan-02 jan-03 jan-04 jan-05 jan-06 jan-07 jan-0
• Today, these passengers are flown in operations which

are extremely efficient in terms of aircraft occupancy. End 2016
In the US domestic market for example load factors are
over 85%, whilst for international flights 82% of the seats
load factors
are filled on average. With seasonality meaning that pushing Total:
84.3%
load factors even higher will be a challenge, larger aircraft
is one simple solution. This solution is already in evidence;
at time of writing, the number of the larger A321neo
ordered by airlines in North America, exceeds the number Domestic:
of A320neo ordered.
• This trend is also evident when the Canadian market
85.3%
is examined, where the seats offered has increased, with International:
flights offered relatively flat, indicating the growth has been
achieved through growing aircraft size. 81.8%
Total Domestic International
08 jan-09 jan-10 jan-11 jan-12 jan-13 jan-14 jan-15 jan-16
US AIRLINE ACHIEVING

WORLD-CLASS LOAD
FACTORS
Source: US Bureau of Transportation
Statistics, Airbus GMF 2017
Note: Data from all US air carrier
domestic and international,
scheduled passenger flights
Number of seats offered and flights from-to Canada Flights

Seats & Flights - Base 100 in 2002 Seats offered
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CAPACITY FROM-TO CANADA

HAS GROWN FASTER THAN
FREQUENCY
Source: OAG – September
of each year, Airbus GMF
North Europe
America
2.9%
2.0%
Services Africa
MRO VALUE Latin
$321bn America
NEW PILOTS
3.9%
72,860
NEW TECHS
77,900

3.6% 2.1%
Growth
4,422 1,896 New
Intra-regional
deliveries
& domestic
2.0% Total
5,620
4.2% 3.4%
20 year Replacement
Fleet in service new 3,724
deliveries
2016 2036
4,422 6,318 5,620
Stay in service &
Remarketed 698
** 2016-2036 CAGR 2017
CIS
4.6%
Asia-
Pacific
Middle
East 4.5%
7.8%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional

Total RPK
traffic growth
4,754
North America
World
4.9%
4.1% 4.4%
654 3.5% 3.3% 3.4%
186 26

Demand by region - Middle East 067
Middle East
INTRA–REGIONAL GROWTH, WHILST CONNECTING
THE EAST WITH THE WEST
ECONOMY
_
• Low oil prices and fiscal tightening are currently restraining
economic growth.
• However, the Middle Eastern economic outlook remains
supported by its substantial petroleum resources,
proximity to the energy intensive Asian economies,
growing tourism potential and strategically important
geopolitical location.
• The region’s real GDP is forecast to grow at +3.4% per year
over the next 20 years.
068 Demand by region - Middle East
TRENDS
_
• It is not news that the Middle East and its airlines have
been growing. As well as its large world class airports
taking advantage of the regions geographical position
by offering connections to destinations around the globe,
a location which has put the Middle East at the cross
roads of trade and transportation between east and west
for centuries, the origin and destination traffic to from
and within the region has also grown.
• In Dubai for example, 46% of passenger traffic is origin
and destination traffic, with a further 17% intra-regional
connecting passengers i.e. the start and end of the journey
is in the Middle East.
• As a way meeting this demand airlines in the region not
only benefit from new state of the art airports but the latest
aircraft as well. They have added frequency over time,
but more significant is the growth in the number of seats
which indicates a significant growth in aircraft size over
time. With aircraft like the A380, A350XWB and 777
prominent in airline fleets.
Middle East airlines capacity vs frequency growth (base 100 in 1990) Seats
Flights
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016
MIDDLE EAST AIRLINES

HAVE ADDED CAPACITY
TO THE MARKET
Source: OAG (Sept. data of each
• At the same time the connectivity to and from the region year), Airbus GMF 2017
has grown dramatically over the same period with the
number of city pairs more than tripling from nearly 200 in
1990 to more than 700 in 2016. Again due to its location
most of the growth in routes has been on routes to and
from Asia-Pacific and Europe, although the number of
routes connecting Africa has doubled.
Number
of city-pairs with
the Middle East
1990:
199
2016:
712
Number of city-pairs served North America CIS Europe
by Middle East airlines Latin America Asia-Pacific Africa
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
MORE CONNECTIVITY,
PARTICULARLY
WITH ASIA-PACIFIC
Source: OAG (September of each
year), Airbus GMF 2017
• Despite this investment in new aircraft and rapidly growing

operations, the region’s airlines collectively returned a profit
in both 2015 and 2016.
• Geopolitics sometimes means that demand in a region
can be constrained, when these are eased or removed
air traffic in a country and its region can receive a boost.
Something that forecasters must consider when putting
together aviation demand forecasts.
• A good case study that has emerged recently in the region
is Iran.
• Passenger traffic forecasts very often include the

impact of economic growth. The positive developments
in Iran have been reflected in the economic development
projected for the country. In 2015, the GDP forecast
for Iran was +3.3% per annum to 2036. Following well
reported positive geopolitical developments involving Iran
this forecast rose to +4.1% per annum early in 2017 over
the same period. This improvement is likely to positively
impact long term demand for aviation from and to the
country.
• Already ~40 new routes have started, emphasising the
effects that liberalisation can have on markets.
Additional airport-pairs from/to Iran in 2016

In 2015, the GDP

forecast for Iran
was
+3.3% per annum to
2036
now
4.1%
THE AGREEMENT WITH IRAN

HAS ALREADY LED TO MORE
AIR SERVICES FROM/TO THE
COUNTRY
Europe
North
America 4.7%
7.8%
Services Africa
MRO VALUE
$190bn Latin
America
NEW PILOTS 8.5%
52,890
NEW TECHS
58,200

3.8% 3.4%
Growth
2,010
Intra-regional
& domestic New
6.0% 5.9% 2,526
1,176
20 year
Fleet in service new Replacement
deliveries 516
2016 2036
1,176 3,186 2,526
Stay in service &
Remarketed 660

** 2016-2036 CAGR 2017
CIS
5.0%
Asia-
Pacific
Middle 6.0%
East
5.4%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional

Total RPK
traffic growth
1,082
Middle East
World
530
512 402 7.0%
5.9%
4.9% 4.9%
4.1% 4.4%

Demand by region - Latin America & Caribbean 075
Latin America
& Caribbean
RECOGNISED BENEFITS OF AVIATION HELPING
TO DRIVE GROWTH
ECONOMY
_
• After two years of contraction the rebound of commodity
prices, Brazil’s abating recession, as well as Argentinian
economic progress is leading South America’s slow recovery.
• Despite long-term challenges including inadequate
infrastructure, restrictive business environments and income
inequality, the long term prospect for Latin America remains
positive.
• Real GDP growth is expected to average +3.0% per year
over the period 2016-2036.
076 Demand by region - Latin America & Caribbean
TRENDS
_
• Despite the economic difficulties faced in the region in
recent years, total traffic has grown consistently except
for 2016, when the decrease in Brazilian domestic traffic
caused an overall decline.
• Other domestic markets in the region continued to grow
however, with a 50% increase in traffic in the last 10 years.
• Despite its recent decline, Brazil continues to be by far
the largest domestic market in Latin America, double the
next biggest market in Mexico.
• The international and intra-regional market from/to/within
the region has grown, now 40% bigger than it was in 2009.
Monthly seats offered from/to/within Latin America (million)

25
20
15
10
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2
Domestic International + intra-regional
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
DOMESTIC MARKETS IN LATIN

AMERICA REPRESENT 60% OF
TOTAL, DESPITE DECREASING
IN 2015 AND 2016
Source: OAG (September data),
Airbus GMF 2017
• Intra-regional travel has continued to grow. Given

the geography of the region and its ground infrastructure
constraints today, there appears opportunity for intra-
regional to grow its share further.
Monthly seats offered from/to/within Latin America (million) excluding domestic traffic
16
International
Intra-regional
14
12
10
0
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
INTRA-REGIONAL TRAFFIC
GROWING FAST, BUT STILL
ONLY ONE THIRD OF THE TOTAL
Airbus GMF 2017
Latin America – top ten countries in international seats offered, in 2016 (monthly, million)
Mexico
Brazil
Paraguay
Argentina
Colombia
Peru
Dominican Rep.
Chile
Puerto Rico
Cuba
0 1 2 3
MEXICO IS THE LARGEST

COUNTRY IN LATIN AMERICA
FOR INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC
Airbus GMF 2017
• Mexican international traffic continues to lead the region
with about three million monthly seats, followed by Brazil
and Paraguay. The strengthening of the market between
Mexico and the US and an increasingly more liberalised
environment has allowed traffic to grow 50% since 2009.
• Further liberalisation is expected in the region. Argentina
for example has conditionally agreed 135 new routes
for five airlines. At least one Long-Haul Low Cost airline
is expected to request routes to the country in the future.
• Airlines in the region are also increasingly looking to
alliances in order to facilitate further growth across the
Latin American market and to international destinations.
Europe
North
America 3.3%
3.9%
Services Africa
Latin
MRO VALUE America
$139bn
NEW PILOTS
4.7%
49,130
NEW TECHS
53,800

3.1% 3.0%
Growth
1,654
Intra-regional
& domestic New
3.9% 4.2% 2,666
1,130
20 year
deliveries Replacement
2016 2036
1,130 2,784 2,666 1,012
Stay in service &

* Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats Beginning 2036 Remarketed 118
** 2016-2036 CAGR 2017
CIS
6.0%
Asia-
Pacific
Middle
East 5.2%
8.5%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional

Total RPK
traffic growth
2,084
Latin America
World
4.9%
448 4.3% 4.1% 4.0% 4.4% 4.2%
120
14

Demand by region - Commonwealth of Independent States 083
Commonwealth
of Independent States
MORE CONNECTIONS, YOUNGER AIRCRAFT
ECONOMY
_
• A key component of the CIS, the Russian economy, is
stabilising after a severe recession triggered by a number
of factors including a drop in oil prices. Generating and
attracting investment to diversify its economy and sustain
robust growth in the CIS will require further structural and
institutional reform to improve the business environment.
• The CIS region’s real GDP is expected to grow at +2.0%
per year over the next 20 years.
084 Demand by region - Commonwealth of Independent States
TRENDS
_
• Despite the difficulties experienced in the region in recent
years, origin and destination passenger traffic has doubled
to, from and within the CIS over the last 10 years. Domestic
and Intra-regional traffic has been particularly strong as well
as traffic to and from Asia-Pacific.
Historical O&D passenger traffic to/from/within CIS (million passengers)

120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Latin America
Africa
North America
Asia-Pacific
Middle East
Europe
Domestic & Intra CIS
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

O&D TRAFFIC TO/FROM/
WITHIN CIS HAS MORE
THAN DOUBLED IN THE LAST
TEN YEARS
Source: SABRE,
Airbus GMF 2017
• Growth in GDP per capita in Russia is forecast to grow

61% by the end of our forecast period and is expected to
help stimulate growth in air traffic in the region.
Real GDP per capita growth, Russia

for selected countries, (base 100 in 2015) United States
170 Germany
GDP per capita
in Russia will grow
160
+61%
60%
150 over the next twenty
years, driving growth
140 +37%
for outbound trips
130 +33%
120
110 RUSSIAN WEALTH FORECAST

TO GROW
100 Source: IHS Economics,
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Airbus GMF 2017
• When demand is challenged, airlines who have more global

operations i.e. outside the affected area, can help offset
some of the impact. Linked to this and also an enabler, and
a benefit for airports, is increased connecting traffic. In Russia,
international travel has increased, but so has connecting traffic
which represents about 15% of Russian international traffic.
Origin or destination
in Russia
Russian airlines international Connecting two foreign Connecting traffic
traffic (million passengers)
35
countries in Russia represents around
30 +90% in 3 years 15%

of international traffic
25
of Russian airlines
20
15
10 CONNECTING TRAFFIC
HELPING DURING DIFFICULT
5 TIMES
Connecting passengers counted
0 once.
2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Sabre, Airbus GMF 2017
• Historically, despite the number of aircraft in service

in the region, fleet productivity was low and the average
aircraft age was high. In 2005, for example, average fleet
age was significantly higher than other regions in the world
at about 16 years. Today, with the acquistion of the latest
generations of aircraft, either directly or through lease,
the average age of the CIS fleet has fallen dramatically to
~12 years. This having been said, the average age for the
CIS fleet needs to fall further to reach world average levels.
North America Europe

Fleet in service average age (years) World average CIS
18
16
14
12
10
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
POSITIVE CIS FLEET
DEVELOPMENT,
MORE TO COME
Source: Ascend,
Airbus GMF 2017
Notes: As at end of year,
100 seats and above
North Europe
America 3.9%
4.6%
Services Africa
MRO VALUE
$79bn Latin
America
NEW PILOTS 6.0%
20,270
NEW TECHS
23,200

2.9% 2.0%
Intra-regional Growth New

& domestic 843 deliveries
3.7% Total
1,203
4.7% 4.2% 762
Replacement
20 year
Fleet in service new 360
deliveries
2016 2036
762 1,605 1,203
Stay in service &
Remarketed 402

** 2016-2036 CAGR 2017
CIS
3.7%
Asia-
Pacific
Middle
East 5.5%
5.0%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional

Total RPK
traffic growth
1,009
CIS
World
4.9% 4.9%
4.1% 4.4% 4.2%
3.6%
120 53 21

Demand by region - Africa 091
Africa
LIBERALISATION, NOW MORE THAN JUST
A GOOD IDEA
ECONOMY
_
• A rebound in commodity prices and stabilisation in China’s
industrial sector are expected to revive economic growth.
• Beyond developments in global commodity markets,
expanding domestic markets, growing middle-class
populations, and regional integration will support long
term economic growth.
• African real GDP is expected to grow at +3.6% per year
over the next 20 years.
092 Demand by region - Africa
TRENDS
_
• Africa is the largest region on Earth in terms of land area
with some 30 million km , that is 20% of the Earth’s total
land area, but is the poorest in terms of its road network
density.
• In terms of the distance between its largest population
centres, those over 300,000 people, on average it has
the third largest distance between them, only behind Latin
America and Asia Pacific.
35
30
25
20
15
10
0
Africa Asia-Pacific CIS Europe Latin America Middle East North America
AFRICAN GEOGRAPHY AND
EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE
MAKES AVIATION ESSENTIAL
FOR THE REGIONS FURTHER
• Given these characteristics intra-regional traffic DEVELOPMENT
in particular appears under developed, especially Source: IRF, The World Bank,
when compared to other regions. Airbus GMF 2017
• One significant reason for this has been the slower pace
of deregulation Africa has experienced compared to other
regions both with countries inside and outside the region.
• This is recognised by both governments and the aviation
industry in Africa. It is also recognised that a greater level
of deregulation would allow air travel in the region to grow
further towards its potential, and allow it to release
the economic and social benefits aviation can deliver.
Traffic to/from each region, Jan-Sept. 2016 Intra-regional traffic

Millions of "passengers" Domestic traffic
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Africa Asia-Pacific CIS Europe Latin America Middle East North America
REGIONAL TRAFFIC IN
AFRICA IS UNDERDEVELOPED
Source: Sabre, Airbus GMF 2017
Number of bilateral agreements registered, 1970-2014

800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Africa
Bilateral agreements
with countries inside
the region
Bilateral agreements
with countries outside
the region
Europe
AFRICA LIBERALISATION HAS

BEEN SLOW TO TAKE HOLD
Source: World Air Services
Agreements database,
Airbus GMF 2017
• Positively, 15 African States recently declared their

commitment to fully open their skies in accordance
with the Yamoussoukro Decision, a move which could act
as a catalyst to even greater liberalisation in the region.
• For the passenger, another positive development that will
be an enabler for aviation’s future growth in Africa, is the
launch in 2016, of plans for a new pan-African biometric
passport by the African Union (AU). At the beginning of
2018, countries in the region are expected to start issuing
the passports to their citizens, building upon the visa
simplification efforts of some countries in recent years.
North Europe
America 3.5%
4.4%
Services
demand forecast Africa
MRO VALUE
5.5%
$83bn Latin
America
NEW PILOTS 5.3%
21,580
NEW TECHS
29,900

Real Trade Real GDP Fleet size*
1,529
4.7% 3.6%
Intra-regional New
& domestic deliveries
5.5% Total
Growth
931
1,055
5.2% 5.2%
598
Replacement
20 year 124
deliveries
2016 2036
598 1,529 1,055
Stay in service &
Remarketed 474

** 2016-2036 CAGR 2017
CIS
4.6%
Asia-
Pacific
Middle
East 7.6%
6.3%
Domestic
and
Intra-Regional

Total RPK
traffic growth
817
Africa
World
5.7%
4.9% 4.8%
5.2%
4.1% 4.4%
141 86
11

06
Freighter
forecast
Freighter forecast 099
100 Freighter forecast
THE SHORT TERM

_
• With relatively slow trade growth world freight traffic
has grown more slowly than passenger traffic. Since 2006,
freight has grown at 1.9% CAGR with passenger traffic
growing at 4.8% CAGR over the same period. Towards
the end of 2016, and at the beginning of 2017, freight January 2017
traffic growth has picked up even achieving 7.1% year freight traffic up
7.1%
on year growth in January. It remains to be seen if the
balance between passenger and freight traffic growth
can be re-established in the long term, although forecasts
suggest a slightly slower growth for freight.
WORLD FREIGHT TRAFFIC

World FTKs year-over-year monthly evolution (%)
16
12
-4
2014 2015 2016

-8
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J
SOME POSITIVE SIGNS

IN THE FREIGHT MARKET
AT THE END OF 2016
TRENDS AND FORECAST

_
• Trade forecasts were revised down again in 2017.
However, international trade is still forecast to double
in the next twenty years.
• The share of air in international trade is set to go up to more
than 30% (in nominal $US).
• Air trade is expected to grow at similar pace as global trade:
domestic and international FTKs forecast to grow at 3.8%
over the next twenty years, a slightly lower growth rate than
last year’s GMF.
• Emerging markets will drive growth of international freight
traffic. The “emerging to advanced” flow is expected to
represent ~30% of world international FTK in 2036.
• Passenger traffic has grown faster than freight traffic
in the last few years, and this is expected to continue
in the future: 4.4% CAGR for passenger traffic in the next
twenty years, 4.6% for belly capacity, dedicated freighter FTKs
forecast to grow at 2.6% per year over the next twenty years.
• The dedicated freight aircraft fleet in service is expected
to increase by 50% in the next twenty years, mainly driven
by Asia-Pacific.
• Demand for ~1,950 freighter aircraft, of which ~730
new build freighter aircraft will be needed by 2036,
55% mid-size, 45% large.
• ~350 new build freighters in North America (mostly
for replacement) and ~200 freighters in Asia-Pacific
(mostly for growth).
Jan-2016 forecast 2016-2036 CAGR
World international trade forecasts (trillion 2010 $US) Jan-2017 forecast 2016-2036 CAGR
50 History Forecast
40
3.8%
3.4%
30
20
10
0
2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034 2036
WORLD TRADE FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN REVISED
DOWNWARDS
Source: IHS Economics,
Airbus GMF 2017
World international air freight (billion FTK)

350
Other 2016-2036 CAGR
300 Emerging-Emerging 2016-2036 CAGR
Advanced-Emerging 2016-2036 CAGR
250 Advanced-Advanced 2016-2036 CAGR
Emerging-Advanced 2016-2036 CAGR
200
150
100
50
31 advanced economies
0 54 emerging economies
2016
INTERNATIONAL AIR FREIGHT

TO MORE THAN DOUBLE IN
THE NEXT TWENTY YEARS
Dedicated
Domestic and international air freight traffic (billion FTK) Belly

450
400
350 2016-2036 CAGR

+2.6%
300
250
200 61%
150
2016-2036 CAGR
+4.6%
100
50 52%
0
2016 2036
BELLY TRAFFIC TO REACH

~61% OF WORLD FTK
ASSUMING CONSTANT BELLY
LOAD FACTOR AT WORLD LEVEL
+4.1%
+5.2%
+4.1%
+2.9%
+4.4%
2036
New Build
2017-2036 demand for freighter aircraft Conversion

1,000
800
389
600
400
343
200
0
Small Mid-size Large
10t < payload < 30t 30t < payload < 80t payload > 80t
DEMAND FOR MORE

THAN 700 NEW FREIGHTER
AIRCRAFT IN THE NEXT
TWENTY YEARS
968
794
North America
81 98
Latin America
2016
2036
69 97
234 276
CIS
Europe
772
136
73
Middle East 317
42 63
Africa Asia-Pacific
FREIGHTER AIRCRAFT FLEET

EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY
50% IN THE NEXT TWENTY
YEARS
07
Services
forecast
Services forecast 107
108 Services forecast
Nr a/c in service 40,120

40,000
35,000
30,000 21,230 Growth
25,000
20,000
15,000
12,936 Replacement
10,000 18,890
5,000
5,954 Stay
0
Beginning 2017 2036
PASSENGER* FLEET
IN SERVICE WILL MORE
THAN DOUBLE OVER
THE NEXT 20 YEARS
*Passenger aircraft ≥ 100 seats
MORE AIRCRAFT MEANS MORE SERVICES

_
• The Airbus Global Market Forecast is used in a number
of ways including as the basis for other forecasts. One
such piece of analysis is our Global Services Forecast
(GSF) which details a forward view of aspects of the
after market. This includes the Maintenance, Repair
and Overhaul market (MRO), the need for new pilots
and technicians and the market for aircraft upgrades.
• An important input from the GMF into our services
forecast is how the fleet will evolve over time, including
the size and fleet mix in terms of age and generation.
If we want to analyse the upgrades market we also need
to know the trends in second hand aircraft by region.
• The commercial passenger aircraft fleet is growing,
and our forecast suggested it will continue to grow
in terms of the numbers of aircraft over 100 seats
in the coming years. In fact the GMF suggests the fleet
will more than double from today’s level of around 19,000
aircraft to 40,000 in 20 years time.
• This fleet growth will also drive the size of the MRO
business, which we also expect to double, US$60 billion to
more than US$120 billion a year by 2036, or a cumulative
US$1.85 trillion over the same period.
• Unsurprisingly, as the fleet grows in Asia-Pacific so too
will its share of the overall MRO business with 36% of the
value or more than US$660 billion over the next 20 years.
YEARLY MARKET VALUE EVOLUTION

US$ Bn
140
120
100 More than x2

80
60
40
20
0
2016 2036
MRO YEARLY DEMAND*
WILL MORE THAN DOUBLE
OVER THE NEXT 20 YEARS
*MRO demand for passenger
aircraft ≥ 100 seats
Evolution of yearly regional share

100%
North America
90%
80%
Middle East
70%
Latin America
60%
Europe
50%
40% CIS
30%
20% Asia-Pacific
10%
0% Africa
2016 2036
ASIA-PACIFIC WILL SEE
THE LARGEST GROWTH
IN MRO DEMAND* OVER
THE NEXT 20 YEARS
Values for 2016 & 2036
18% 20%
North America Europe

US$ 321 Bn US$ 364 Bn
4%
Africa
US$ 83 Bn
8%
Latin America
US$ 139 Bn
MRO TOTAL DEMAND

FOR PASSENGER AIRCRAFT
ABOVE 100 SEATS OVER
THE NEXT 20 YEARS
CABIN & SYSTEMS UPGRADE MARKET (2017-2036) - % BY REGION
3%
14%
15%
Africa US$ 38%
Asia-Pacific
CIS
180 Bn
UPGRADE MARKET
Europe 5% FOR PASSENGER AIRCRAFT
Latin America
≥ 100 SEATS: US$ 180 BN
Middle East OVER 20 YEARS
North America 22% 3% Source: Airbus GMF 2017
World
4%
US$
CIS 1.85 Tn
US$ 79 Bn
10%
Middle East
US$ 190 Bn 36%
Asia-Pacific
US$ 664 Bn
• A new element to this years Global Services Forecast

not published last year, is our view of the upgrade market
for systems and cabin for passenger aircraft over 100 seats.
• Over the next 20 years, our forecast shows this market to
be valued at UD$180 billion.
• For aircraft manufacturers, there are times when technology
or market demands move faster than the economic lives
of our products. We constantly look for opportunities
to incrementally improve our line built aircraft, but also
systematically look to embody these improvements where
possible on our existing in service aircraft. This provides
benefits to operators by keeping the product at the latest
comfort and technology levels, which can enable cost
reductions and/or enhance customer experience. For
the manufacturer it keeps our aircraft flying with the latest
standards and provides a useful aftermarket revenue stream.
72,860 96,970
77,900 96,600
Europe
North America
21,580
29,900
49,130
Africa
53,800
Latin America
NEW TECHNICIANS - % BY REGION (2017-2036) NEW PILOTS - % BY REGION (2017-2036)

5% 4%
14% 14%
11% 10%
548K 38%
9% 534K 41%
10%
18% 4% 18%
4%
Africa
Asia-Pacific
CIS
NEW PILOTS AND
Europe TECHNICIANS DEMAND
Latin America FORECAST
Middle East For passenger aircraft ≥ 100
seats over the next 20 years
North America Source: Airbus GMF 2017
20,270
23,200
CIS
52,890
58,200
Middle East
219,890
208,200
Asia-Pacific
• As the world fleet grows so too does the need for more
pilots and technicians to meet the needs of airlines and
passengers. Airbus forecast that over the next 20 years
more than a million such professionals will be needed to
be trained to the highest levels.
• We are progressively expanding our training network
to support fleet growth worldwide and to support our
customers by extending our training capabilities locally.
In the last 3 years, we have moved from 5 to 15 training
locations. We will continue to extend our network and
move closer to our customers by proposing local,
pragmatic and tailored training solutions. These solutions
cover the entire pilot and technician carrier paths, from
cadets to their operational environment.
• In the future, a digital transition will cause a re-evaluation
of traditional MRO practices. Today, new generation aircraft
can communicate in real time through datalink systems
up to 400,000 separate parameters, enabling predictive
maintenance to begin to play a key role in aircraft operation
and support.
IN THREE YEARS, AIRBUS TRAINING CENTRES HAVE

GROWN FROM 5 TO A NETWORK OF 15 WORLDWIDE
_
Hamburg
Toulouse
Tunis
Miami
Mexico City
Campinas
Buenos Aires
Beijing
New Delhi Bangkok

Hong kong
Ho Chi minh
Bengalore
Singapore
Jakarta
AIRBUS HELPING TO
SUPPORT THE GLOBAL
NEED FOR PILOTS AND
TECHNICIANS
08
Methodology &
summary data
Methodology & summary data 117
118 Methodology & summary data
OUR METHODOLOGY AT A GLANCE

_
Historical • What are the key drivers and trends?

market analysis • How are the fleets operated?
Forecast passenger • Where will passengers and cargo fly?

& cargo traffic • How will demand be distributed?
• How will the networks evolve ?

Forecast carrier • How many new routes?
operations • How much growth on existing routes?
• What is the best module size for each sector?
• When will the current fleet be replaced?

Forecast fleet
• How will other life cycle elements evolve?
requirements
• What are the key fleet requirements?
• Demand
Analyse future
for new aircraft
aircraft market
•K ey products differentiators
•D
emand for services
Analyse future
(training, MRO)
services market
•K
ey market segments
FORECASTING - ASKING
THE RIGHT QUESTIONS
Our main data sources:
OAG, Ascend, ACAS, Sabre,
Seabury, IHS Economics,
Oxford Economics, DoT,
Eurocontrol, IATA, ICAO
NEW DELIVERIES 2017-2036

_
ASIA- LATIN MIDDLE NORTH

AFRICA CIS EUROPE TOTAL
PACIFIC AMERICA EAST AMERICA
SINGLE-AISLE 817 9,812 1,009 5,249 2,084 1,082 4,754 24,807
SMALL
141 2,569 120 1,039 448 512 654 5,483
TWIN-AISLE
INTERMEDIATE
86 1,328 53 389 120 530 186 2,692
TWIN-AISLE
VERY LARGE
11 567 21 143 14 402 26 1,184
AIRCRAFT
TOTAL 1,055 14,276 1,203 6,820 2,666 2,526 5,620 34,166
NEW PASSENGER AIRCRAFT

DELIVERIES BY REGION

SMALL - - - - - - - -
MID-SIZE 7 83 13 24 11 22 230 390
LARGE 3 125 8 44 - 40 123 343
TOTAL 10 208 21 68 11 62 353 733
NEW FREIGHT AIRCRAFT


CONVERSIONS 46 463 55 137 59 30 434 1,224
CONVERTED FREIGHT
AIRCRAFT BY REGION

SINGLE-AISLE 817 9,812 1,009 5,249 2,084 1,082 4,754 24,807
TWIN-AISLE 235 4,024 189 1,468 579 1,078 1,113 8,686
VERY LARGE
13 648 26 171 14 428 106 1,406
AIRCRAFT
TOTAL 1,065 14,484 1,224 6,888 2,677 2,588 5,973 34,899
NEW PASSENGER AND

FREIGHT AIRCRAFT
Source: Airbus 100+ seats

(passenger aircraft) and 10t+
(freighters), Airbus GMF 2017
SAFE HARBOUR STATEMENT

_
Disclaimer These factors include but are not
limited to:
This presentation includes forward-looking
statements. Words such as anticipates, • Changes in general economic, political
believes, estimates, expects, intends, or market conditions, including the cyclical
plans, projects, may, forecast and similar nature of some of Airbus’ businesses;
expressions are used to identify these
forward-looking statements. Examples •S
ignificant disruptions in air travel
of forward-looking statements include (including as a result of terrorist attacks);
statements made about strategy, ramp-up •C
urrency exchange rate fluctuations,
and delivery schedules, introduction of in particular between the Euro and
new products and services and market the U.S. dollar;
expectations, as well as statements
regarding future performance and outlook. •T
he successful execution of internal
By their nature, forward-looking statements performance plans, including cost
involve risk and uncertainty because they reduction and productivity efforts;
relate to future events and circumstances
•P
roduct performance risks, as well
and there are many factors that could
as programme development and
cause actual results and developments
management risks;
to differ materially from those expressed
or implied by these forward-looking •C
ustomer, supplier and subcontractor
statements. performance or contract negotiations,
including financing issues;
•C
ompetition and consolidation in
the aerospace and defence industry;
•S
ignificant collective bargaining labour
disputes;
•T
he outcome of political and legal
processes, including the availability
of government financing for certain
programmes and the size of defence
and space procurement budgets;
•R
esearch and development costs
in connection with new products;
•L
egal, financial and governmental risks
related to international transactions;
•L
egal and investigatory proceedings
and other economic, political and
technological risks and uncertainties.
Any forward-looking statement contained
in this presentation/publication speaks
as of the date of this presentation/
publication release. Airbus undertakes no
obligation to publicly revise or update any
forward-looking statements in light of new
information, future events or otherwise.
AIRBUS S.A.S. 31707 Blagnac Cedex, France
© AIRBUS S.A.S. 2017 - All rights reserved, Airbus, its
logo and the product names are registered trademarks.
Concept design by Airbus Multi Media Support 20170247.
Photos by Airbus, Tetra Images, 06photo, R. Wilson,
alice-photo, P. Masclet, l i g h t p o e t, V. Lombardo,
P. Kosmider, carnival, pixelliebe, N. Starichenko,
A. V. Marcus, saiko3p, A. Voskresensky, Abdoabdalla,
P. Chenu, P. Alcantara. Computer renderings by Fixion.
Reference D14029465, Issue 4. April, 2017.
Printed in France by Art & Caractère.
Confidential and proprietary document. This document
and all information contained herein is the sole property
of AIRBUS S.A.S. No intellectual property rights are
granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure
of its content. This document shall not be reproduced
or disclosed to a third party without the express written
consent of AIRBUS S.A.S.
This document and its content shall not be used
for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied.
The statements made herein do not constitute an offer.
They are based on the mentioned assumptions
and are expressed in good faith. Where the supporting
grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS
S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof.
This brochure is printed on Stucco Old mill - Premium
white and Offset standard.
This paper is produced in factories that are accredited
EMAS and certified ISO 9001-14001, PEFC and FSC CoC.
It is produced using pulp that has been whitened without
either chlorine or acid. The paper is entirely recyclable
and is produced from trees grown in sustainable forest
resources.
The printing inks use organic pigments or minerals. There
is no use of basic dyes or dangerous metals from the
cadmium, lead, mercury or hexavalent chromium group.
The printer, Art & Caractère (France 81500),
is engaged in a waste management and recycling
programme for all resulting by-products.
Get the GMF app
market.forecast@airbus.com
#AGMF
Find us on Facebook
ISBN: 978-2-9554382-2-6

Airbus Global Market Forecast 2017-2036 Growing Horizons Full Book

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

Airbus Global Market Forecast 2017-2036 Growing Horizons Full Book

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

The world is a book

and those who do

• Strong and resilient passenger traffic growth.

World annual traffic (trillion RPK*) Asian WTC Attack Financial

AIR TRAVEL HAS PROVED TO

Passenger aircraft above 100 seats, freighter aircraft above 10 tonnes

20,000 $US trillion

% units 71% 25% 4%

34,170 New 730

2017 2027 2017 SHARE OF 2017-2036

AFRICA 350 700 1,050 3%

ASIA-PACIFIC 6,140 8,140 14,280 41%

CIS 340 860 1,200 3%

EUROPE 2,640 4,180 6,820 20%

LATIN AMERICA 940 1,730 2,670 8%

MIDDLE EAST 1,260 1,270 2,530 7%

NORTH AMERICA 2,360 3,260 5,620 16%

FREIGHTERS 410 320 730 2%

WORLD TOTAL 14,440 20,460 34,900 100%

THOUGHTS ON THE SHORT TERM

• Passenger traffic grew impressively again in 2016, with

PASSENGER AIRCRAFT* IN SERVICE

THE LONG TERM

GDP Working Age

THE TRANS-ATLANTIC EXAMPLE

PASSENGER TRAFFIC BETWEEN EUROPE AND THE US

• Interestingly the incumbent carriers and alliances have also

0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

LIBERALISATION & TOURISM

STRONG CAPACITY INCREASE

• Cuba is another example where improving geo-politics

Monthly seats offered between the US and Cuba (thousand)

• Aviation mega-cities are an important component of

Hong Kong, China 26.7m

Bangkok, Thailand 18.7m

Paris, France 15m

Dubai, UAE 14.3m

Istanbul, Turkey 12.4m

New York City, US 12.3m

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia 12.2m

AT A GLANCE - TOP 10 MOST

Osaka, Japan 52%

Pattaya, Thailand 17%

AT A GLANCE - TOP 10

PASSENGER TRAFFIC CONTINUES

More than double

World annual traffic (trillion RPK*) Asian WTC Attack Financial

AIR TRAVEL HAS PROVED TO

World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions )

• Domestic China will become the largest traffic flow before

ASIAN TRAFFIC SET TO GROW

Traffic share (%)

Domestic PRC x3.6

DOMESTIC CHINESE TRAFFIC

North Africa - PRC x6.2

ORIGIN & DESTINATION

TOP 20 PASSENGER FLOWS IN 2036

In terms of Origin and Destination passengers, some

800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

DEMAND FOR PASSENGER AIRCRAFT

World traffic by sector length in ASK (trillion)

WIDE-BODY AND SINGLE-

Traffic captured by wide-bodies

• Clearly capacity needs on these shorter sectors is one

AIR TRAVEL HAS PROVED TO

STRONG CAPACITY INCREASE

• Aviation mega-cities are an important component of

AT A GLANCE - TOP 10 MOST

AT A GLANCE - TOP 10

AIR TRAVEL HAS PROVED TO

ASIAN TRAFFIC SET TO GROW

DOMESTIC CHINESE TRAFFIC

WIDE-BODY AND SINGLE-

• Whilst the performance characteristics of aircraft is important MANY AIRPORTS IN ASIA-

GMF 2017 NEW PASSENGER

DEMAND FOR PASSENGER

ASIA-PACIFIC LOW COST

THE IMPACT OF MORE

EUROPEANS ARE AT VARIOUS

FLOWS INVOLVING EUROPE

ALMOST 90% OF TRAVEL

NORTH AMERICAN AIRLINE

US AIRLINE ACHIEVING

CAPACITY FROM-TO CANADA

MIDDLE EAST AIRLINES

THE AGREEMENT WITH IRAN

DOMESTIC MARKETS IN LATIN

MEXICO IS THE LARGEST