Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
1)
a)
Moving Average
11.0 Length 3
Accuracy Measures
MAPE 4.58749
Rendimiento
10.0
9.5
9.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Index
Moving Average
11.0 Length 5
Accuracy Measures
MAPE 5.58295
Rendimiento
10.0
9.5
9.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Index
Smoothing Constant
11.0 Alpha 0.2
Accuracy Measures
MAPE 5.89264
Rendimiento
10.0
9.5
9.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Index
2)
a.1) si los datos son coherentes con el dato de ruido blanco
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lag
350
300
utilidades
250
200
150
100
1 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54
Index
100
50
C8
-50
-100
1 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54
Index
Viendo la autocorrelacion
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lag
150
100
1 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54
Index
Forecasts
150
100
1 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54
Index
Forecasts
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lag
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lag
3)
a)
540
520
500
Ventas
480
460
440
420
400
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Index
100
50
0
C13
-50
-100
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Index
estacionario
Autocorrelation Function for Ventas
(with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations)
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lag
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lag
b)
Winters' Method Plot for Ventas
Multiplicative Method
560 Variable
Actual
540 Fits
Forecasts
520 95.0% PI
Smoothing Constants
500 Alpha (lev el) 0.5
Gamma (trend) 0.5
Ventas
Accuracy Measures
460 MAPE 2.448
MAD 11.490
440 MSD 250.953
420
400
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24
Index
Forecasts
c)
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
Autocorrelation
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Lag