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(0.40)(0.20)
P(A1|B)=
(0.40)(0.20) (0.60)(0.05)
(0.08)
P(A1|B)= 0.72
(0.08) (0.03)
P( A2) P( B | A2)
P(A2 | B)=
P( A1) P( B | A1) P( A2) P( B | A2)
(0.60)(0.05)
P(A2 | B)=
(0.40)(0.20) (0.60)(0.05)
(0.03)
P(A2 | B)= 0.27
(0.08) (0.03)
PROBABILIDAD Y ESTADISTICA
Moreno Perez Daniel Alejandro Ejercicios 39 y 40
40. Las probabilidades previas de los eventos A1, A2 y A3 son P(A1) 0.20; P(A2)
0.50, y P(A3) 0.30. Las probabilidades condicionales para el evento B, dados A1,
A2 y A3 son P(B |A1)= 0.50; P(B |A2) =0.40, y P(B |A3)= 0.30.
a) Calcule P(B ∩ A1), P(B ∩ A2) y P(B∩ A3).
P (B ∩ A1)= P(B|A1)P(A1)=(0.50)(0.20)=0.1
P (B ∩ A2)=P(B|A2)P(A2)=(0.40)(0.50)=0.2
P (B∩ A3)=P(B|A3)P(A3)=(0.30)(0.30)=0.09
(0.50)(0.40)
P( A2 | B)
(0.20)(0.50) (0.50)(0.40) (0.30)(0.30)
(0.2)
P( A2 | B) 0.51
(0.39)
(0.2)(0.5) (0.1)
P( A1| B)
(0.5)(0.2) (0.4)(0.5) (0.3)(0.3) (0.1) (0.2) (0.09)
0.1
P( A1| B ) 0.25
0.39
(0.3)(0.3) (0.9)
P( A3 | B)
(0.5)(0.2) (0.4)(0.5) (0.3)(0.3) (0.1) (0.2) (0.09)
0.09
P( A3 | B) 0.23
0.39
PROBABILIDAD Y ESTADISTICA
Moreno Perez Daniel Alejandro Ejercicios 39 y 40
(0.50)(0.40)
P( A2 | B)
(0.20)(0.50) (0.50)(0.40) (0.30)(0.30)
(0.2)
P( A2 | B) 0.51
(0.39)
1.000000