March 12, 2018

Paul Clements Looks Strong in Michigan 6th

Primary
To: Interested Parties

From: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research

In a new survey among likely Democratic primary voters, Paul Clements is well positioned to
win the Democratic primary in August. Braced by impressive favorability ratings, a solid
regional base and superior name recognition, Clements leads a crowded field of candidates.

This memorandum summarizes an interactive voice recognition survey of 454 likely Democratic
primary voters taken in Michigan’s 6th Congressional District. The survey was taken March 6-7,
2016 and carries a margin of error of +/- 4.6 points at a 95 percent confidence interval.

Key Findings

 Clements is the best known, most popular candidate. At this point in the race, Paul
Clements holds at least a 27 point advantage in name recognition compared to every
other Democrat running. He also posts an exceptional 4:1 positive-to-negative ratio in
favorability.

Figure 1: Candidate favorability

Total
Favorable Unfavorable Net
Familiar
Clements 41 9 +32 76%
Longjohn 20 4 +16 49%
Eichholz 17 4 +13 49%
Benac 15 7 +8 49%
Garrod 14 6 +8 42%
Franklin 13 6 +7 47%

 Clements holds a lead in the trial heat. Buoyed by a strong regional base in
Kalamazoo (26 percent Clements), Paul Clements leads the field with 21 percent of the
vote share. Only one other candidate breaks 10 percent: 12 percent Eponine Garrod, 6
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Paul Clements for Congress: Primary Survey Data 2

percent Matt Longjohn, 5 percent Rich Eichholz, 5 percent George Franklin, 4 percent
David Benac. A 48 percent plurality of are undecided.

Figure 2: Total vote

Vote %
Paul Clements 21
Eponine Garrod 12
Matt Longjohn 6
Rich Eicholz 5
George Franklin 5
David Benac 4
Undecided 48

Conclusion

Sixth District Democrats are looking for change and looking to send a signal to Donald Trump.
By far, voters identify “standing up to Trump” as the leading priority for a candidate for Congress
this area. They are finding that candidate in Paul Clements.

 2018 Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, All Rights Reserved. March, 2018