LOOK BACK: The 1991 flash

flood that devastated Ormoc

City
Before the onslaught of Super Typhoon Yolanda in 2013, Ormoc City faced a powerful storm
that submerged parts of the city on November 5, 1991

ORMOC TRAGEDY. Debris, from the forest carried by the flash flood, is piled-up on houses, November 9, 1991, in
Ormoc City. Powerful typhoon Thelma caused a nearby dam to burst sending floodwaters rampaging here when it
struck central Philippines, November 5, 1991. Photo by Jose Duran/AFP

MANILA, Philippines – In 2013, Super Typhoon Yolanda (international name Haiyan) – one of
the strongest typhoons to hit the country – left a trail of devastation along Eastern Visayas,
killing more than 6,000 people.

In Ormoc City, power and communications lines were cut off and roads were left impassable,
leaving the city isolated.
But more than two decades ago, residents of Ormoc had faced a similar tragedy, when
hundreds of people were killed in a matter of hours due to flash floods that submerged the city.

On the morning of November 5, 1991, Typhoon Uring (international name Thelma) bore down
on Leyte, wreaking havoc and burying the eastern and western plains of the province in water,
sediment, and debris.

At least 4,000 people were killed in the flashfloods triggered by heavy rains. Some 3,000 people
were injured and about 2,500 were reported missing after the floods.

In just over 3 hours of flooding, waters rose an average of 3 to 5 feet; at the peak of the
flooding, waters rose by 7 feet in 15 minutes, according to a 1992 report by the Manila
Observatory's Environmental Research Division.

Rivers along the coastral stretched overflowed. When the waters receded, it left behind
sediment, 2 feet deep.

According to the report, intense rainfall caused the massive flooding in Ormoc and parts of
Eastern and Western Leyte. But it was not clear why the typhoon unloaded such heavy rains
when it crossed Leyte.

Aside from the heavy rainfall, the Manila Observatory's report identified other factors that
contributed to the massive devastation.

While illegal logging and deforestation were to blame for the landslides, geographic conditions
in the area also had to be considered. The soil in the Ormoc watershed exceeded its capacity to
hold water, while the central part of the island of Leyte, classified as volcanic terrain, has soil
that is susceptible to erosion.

The flooding was also exacerbated by debris from poorly-made infrastructure. One of the worst
hit areas, Isla Verde, recorded a high death toll because the high-risk area was allowed to be
heavily populated.

To prevent a disaster of this scale from happening again, the city government has taken
measures to improve its disaster and resilience capabilities.

The municipal local government units began reforestation projects after the 1991 tragedy. The
Japan International Cooperation Agency, meanwhile, conducted various studies and projects for
flood mitigation. This includes the construction of bridges and slit dams for landslide reduction,
and improving the drainage of rivers in the city.

These projects helped cut the number of casualties recorded during the onslaught of Yolanda in
2013. – Rappler.com
One of world’s strongest
typhoons lashes Philippines
Associated Press / 08:05 AM November 09, 2013

Typhoon ‘Yolanda,’ one of the strongest typhoons on record struck the Philippines, forcing
hundreds of thousands from their homes and knocking out power and communications in
several provinces. But the nation appeared to avoid a major disaster because the rapidly
moving typhoon blew away before wreaking more damage, officials said.

Typhoon “Yolanda” (international name: Haiyan) left the Philippines early Saturday on a path
toward Southeast Asia, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tweeted.
Forecasters said the storm was expected to pick up renewed strength over the South China Sea
on its way toward Vietnam.

As of 11am, over 100 people are feared dead in the wake of “Yolanda’s” destruction,
according to Capt. John Andrews, deputy director general of the Civil Aviation Authority of
the Philippines.
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Nearly 750,000 people were forced to flee their homes.

Weather officials said ‘Yolanda’ had sustained winds of 235 kph (147 mph) with gusts of 275
kph (170 mph) when it made landfall. By those measurements, ‘Yolanda’ would be
comparable to a strong Category 4 hurricane in the U.S., nearly in the top category, a 5.

Hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons are the same thing. They are just called different names in
different parts of the world.

Because of cut-off communications in the Philippines, it was impossible to know the full
extent of casualties and damage. At least two people were electrocuted in storm-related
accidents, one person was killed by a fallen tree and another was struck by lightning, official
reports said.
Southern Leyte Gov. Roger Mercado said the typhoon ripped roofs off houses and triggered
landslides that blocked roads.

The dense clouds and heavy rains made the day seem almost as dark as night, he said.

“When you’re faced with such a scenario, you can only pray, and pray and pray,” Mercado
told The Associated Press by telephone, adding that mayors in the province had not called in to
report any major damage.

“I hope that means they were spared and not the other way around,” he said. “My worst fear is
there will be massive loss of lives and property.”
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Eduardo del Rosario, head of the disaster response agency, said the speed at which the typhoon
sliced through the central islands — 40 kph (25 mph) — helped prevent its 600-kilometer
(375-mile) band of rain clouds from dumping enough of their load to overflow waterways.
Flooding from heavy rains is often the main cause of deaths from typhoons.

“It has helped that the typhoon blew very fast in terms of preventing lots of casualties,”
regional military commander Lt. Gen. Roy Deveraturda said. He said the massive evacuation
of villagers before the storm also saved many lives.

The Philippines, which is hit by about 20 typhoons and storms a year, has in recent years
become more serious about preparations to reduce deaths. Public service announcements are
frequent, as are warnings by the president and high-ranking officials that are regularly carried
on radio and TV and social networking sites.
High waves triggered by powerful winds of Supertyphoon “Yolanda” pound the sea wall of
Legazpi City on Friday. AFP

President Benigno Aquino III assured the public of war-like preparations, with three C-130 air
force cargo planes and 32 military helicopters and planes on standby, along with 20 navy ships.

Among the evacuees were thousands of residents of Bohol who had been camped in tents and
other makeshift shelters since a magnitude-7.2 earthquake hit the island province last month.
 Relief workers said they were struggling to find
ways to deliver food and other supplies, with roads blocked by landslides and fallen trees.
World weather experts were calling the typhoon one of the strongest tropical cyclones on
record at the time it hit land, but not quite the windiest. There were disputes over just how
strong it is because of differences in the way storms are measured.

“In terms of the world I don’t think it’s the strongest,” said Taoyang Peng, a tropical cyclone
scientist at the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva. But he added that “it is one of
the strongest typhoons to make landfall” and probably the strongest to hit the Philippines.

The U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center put Haiyan’s sustained winds at 315 kph (196 mph)
just minutes before it made landfall Thursday, which would be a world record. However,
officials in Tokyo and the Philippines but the wind speed at about 235 kph (147 mph).

Peng said his group considers Tokyo the authority in this case because it’s the closest regional
center to the storm.

The best way to measure a storm is with radar from a plane flying in and out of it. That’s not
done in Asia, where they use satellite imagery and ground measurements instead.

Not until meteorologists can conduct a deep investigation will scientists know just how strong
Haiyan actually was, but it will easily be one of the strongest on record, former U.S. National
Hurricane Center director Max Mayfield told the AP on Friday.

Mayfield described looking at radar images of Haiyan, saying, “it has got to weaken, it has got
to weaken” — and yet it didn’t.
RELATED STORIES:

‘Yolanda’ weakens, on way out of PH

200,000 affected by ‘Yolanda’—DSWD
Search and rescue, power, telco services restoration top priority
Originally posted: 1:39 am | Saturday, November 9th, 2013

Read more: http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/523635/yolanda-one-of-worlds-strongest-

typhoons-blasts-philippines#ixzz4xnFTWQcs
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Exposed: Why Vanuatu is the world's
\

most 'at-risk' country for natural hazards

Vanuatu is the world's most at-risk country for natural hazards, according to a UN
University WorldRiskIndex. And it's not just storms, earthquakes, volcanoes or tsunamis
that are the problem.

Some saw it coming: For four years running, Vanuatu has been ranked the world's most disaster-prone
country in an annual WorldRiskReport published by the United Nations University's Institute for
Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS).
The country's 2014 ranking of 36.5 percentage points places the country well ahead of second place
Philippines (28.3), as well as South Pacific neighbor Tonga (28.2), or Guatemala (21). Germany, by
comparison, ranks 147th at 3 percentage points, with Qatar last (or best, in this case) at .08 percentage
points. The industrialized world's most at-risk nation (17th place) is Japan, at 13 percentage points.
But just what is it that makes life on Vanuatu so dangerous?
1. Natural disasters
Name a natural hazard, and Vanuatu likely knows it. In a country of roughly 250,000 people, earthquakes
place on average 90,000 per year at risk.
Then again, what's "yearly risk" with regard to rising sea levels or (infrequent) earthquakes?
The exposure figure is an average: A quake affecting a million people once a decade places 100,000 per
year "at risk." The same holds true for storms. Future rising sea levels of one meter will put about 30,000
people at risk.

Destruction from a 7.4 Vanuatu earthquake in 2002 for which no official death toll was ever published
This means 64 percent of Vanuatu's citizens are exposed to natural hazards every year. It's significant in
that nearby Tonga comes in at just 55 percent and that both volcanoes and tsunamis - risk factors for both
countries - were not in the global analysis.
"Vanuatu is unique," said the scientific head of the WorldRiskIndex, Professor Jörn Birkmann, in an
interview with DW.
Storms affect the small island nation far differently than, say, Indonesia, the Philippines or US.
"You might have Hurricane Sandy going through the east coast, but the other parts of the country are not
exposed," Birkmann says.
When a storm hits tiny Vanuatu, the entire country is affected - including the capital.
Vanuatu's Mount Yasur - a part of the plate tectonics that lead to many earthquakes
2. Coping
This is another way of saying, "Will relief efforts actually get to the people who need them?"
With eighty-one percentage points on the index, Vanuatu lacks coping capacities.
Quake victims in Haiti had it worse, with 91 percentage points lacking coping capacities, and Afghanistan
topped the list at 94 percentage points.
First, this reflects a government's inability to help citizens in distress. Second, it's a deeper problem of
corruption and poor governance.
The UNU-EHS' index uses data from the US-based Fund For Peace and Transparency International
For example, the UNU-EHS' index bases its numbers on data in the Failed State Index by the US-based
Fund For Peace, as well as the Corruption Perception Index by Transparency International.
One of point of comparison: Manila was better able to "cope" with Typhoon Haiyan since the Philippine
capital was not struck severely by the storm. Porta Vila, Vanuatu, however, was struck as fiercely as its
outlying islands.
Helicopters were unable to conduct immediate search and rescue operations on its 65 inhabited islands.
3. Susceptibility
On susceptibility, Professor Birkmann cites sanitation as a proxy indicator: In good times, just 57 percent
of Vanuatu's citizens enjoying access to sanitation and sufficient sewage disposal.
"This might sound high - it's more than half - but here in northern countries you have 98, 99 percent. Or
compare it to the Philippines, and problems with Typhoon Haiyan, where access to sanitation is still much
higher at 74 percent. So Vanuatu has severe deficits and challenges," he says.
Other contributing factors: Roughly ten percent of the country lives in extreme poverty, with eight percent
of people chronically undernourished.
4. Adaptation
"Usually the Red Cross looks at a months-long recovery process. But for us it was important to look ahead,
50 years, at the capacity to change," says Birkmann.
Factors include adult literacy rates, school enrollment, gender equality, investment, public health
expenditures, life expectancy, and others. Importantly, it also includes a factor which some countries can
change, but Vanuatu mostly cannot: Where its citizens live.
"In the US or UK you could prohibit construction in flood areas. But here, you don't have too many places
that are not exposed to hazards," Birkmann says.

The chances they will go through this again are high

Professor Birkmann says politicians often fail to address - or intentionally avoid - social and governmental
failings when addressing disaster prevention and relief.
WorldRiskIndex
To arrive at Vanuatu's overall WorldRiskIndex number of 36.5 percentage points, the UN University
researchers took the number of citizens potentially exposed to natural hazards and multiplied it by an
overall "vulnerability" - an average based on susceptibility, lack of coping capacities and a lack of adaptive
capacities.
Birkmann cites Japan as an example.
"Japan is highly exposed with the number of people exposed to earthquakes, but disaster risk is lower due
to a higher level of preparedness with regard to building codes and infrastructure there," he says. "The
question of whether an extreme impact is a catastrophe heavily depends on the vulnerability."
Jörn Birkmann is the scientific head of the WorldRiskIndex and director of the University of Stuttgart's
Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning. He has just returned from the World Conference on Disaster
Risk Reduction in Sendai, Japan (14-18 March) - at which the president of Vanuatu, H.E. Baldwin
Lonsdale, appealed for international help after Cyclone Pam.
Cities: Drivers of risk or resilience?
ARTICLE

 2015•09•21
By Matthias Garschagen

This article is part of UNU’s “17 Days, 17 Goals” series, featuring research and commentary
in support of the United Nations Sustainable Development Summit, 25-27 September 2015
in New York City.
Goal #11: Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable
In 1950 two-thirds of the world’s population lived in rural areas, while one-third lived in
urban areas. By 2050, that proportion will be reversed. It is forecast that by mid-century,
cities will be home to some 6.3 billion people – a staggering 2.4 billion more urban
inhabitants than today.

This urban growth will not be spread evenly throughout the world; most of it will occur in
Africa and Asia. Across these continents, urban populations will rise by 860 million and 1.2
billion, respectively, according to UN forecasts.
Sustainable development goal #11 aspires to “make cities and human settlements inclusive,
safe, resilient and sustainable”. One of its targets is to protect those in vulnerable situations
(natural hazards and disasters). If this target is to be achieved, decision makers will need to
consider the question: Does urbanisation make people more, or less, vulnerable to the
impacts of extreme weather?

When mega-trends collide

Two ongoing mega-trends — rapid urbanisation and climate change — will shape how city-
dwellers around the world experience natural hazards. They place a particular focus on how
developing countries and emerging economies, such as those in Africa, Asia and Latin
America, will cope, because these regions are not only expected to experience rapid
urbanisation, but also are likely bear the brunt of climate change impacts.

In Asia, for example, more than 18% of the urban population lives in low-lying coastal
areas, often less than 10 metres above sea level. Dense, low-lying areas such as Ho Chi Minh
City, Mumbai, and Jakarta are vulnerable not only to sea-level rise but also to flooding and
cyclones. And in many rapidly growing cities, labor migrants and other low-income groups
are particularly vulnerable, as they tend to settle in dangerous and exposed areas, such as on
the steep, landslide-prone slopes of Rio de Janeiro or in slums along the flood-prone banks
of rivers and canals in Mumbai or Lagos.
Although urbanisation poses challenges, it also offers opportunities when it comes to disaster
risk management. Urbanisation can increase disaster risk but also improve risk reduction.

To fully grasp how urbanisation affects human vulnerability to natural hazards, we need to
take a step back and look at the bigger picture. We need to consider how urbanisation affects
such key components of risk as including susceptibility, coping capacity, and adaptive
capacity.

Can urbanisation decrease the impact of natural hazards?

A city’s marginalised residents typically are most susceptible to natural hazards. For
example, many labor migrants in Dhaka or Manila live in improvised housing structures in
highly exposed locations, which are more likely to be damaged by flooding and storms, and
have restricted access to social goods and services (such as sanitation infrastructure, clean
drinking water, and health care facilities).

Yet urbanization also opens up a number of options to mitigate susceptibility. Cities are
central drivers of economic growth, and can enable a rise in income both for the economy as
a whole and for individuals. This income can be reinvested into reducing susceptibility, for
example by improving housing infrastructure and the availability of sanitation and health
care.

Enhanced coping and adaptive strategies

The pressure of rapid urbanisation can limit governments’ ability to build and operate
essential infrastructure such as healthcare and disaster response. But urbanisation can also
strengthen coping capacities. The high density of buildings and other infrastructure in cities
means that protective structures such as dykes can be implemented and operated more
 efficiently. And by concentrating large numbers of people, cities can put them in direct reach
of disaster facilities such as ambulances or fire brigades. And by boosting income levels,
cities can improve individual as well as general coping capacities.

Yet key factors that improve adaptive capacity — such as investment, educational standards,
and public participation — often are lacking in many cities in developing countries and
emerging economies. At the same time, exposed cities such as Jakarta and Lagos have high
levels of capital, innovation, and political attention. These metropolises thus have the
potential to play a pioneering role in developing and implementing effective adaptation
measures.

Urbanisation offers opportunities

For goal #11 to succeed, decision-makers in individual countries and cities will need to
understand the multi-facetted and often-contradictory relationship between urbanisation and
natural hazard risk. In this context, it is crucial to harness the opportunities urbanisation
presents.

Whether this can and will be done ultimately depends on how countries implement risk
management policies. For example, cities must ensure that urban sprawl does not expand
into high-exposure or highly vulnerable areas.

The interactions between exposure to natural hazards with susceptibility, and coping and
adaptive capacities, also point to an urgent need to interlink disaster relief, disaster risk
reduction, and development strategies. If new infrastructure such as a school or hospital is
built, for example, it should be climate-proofed and located in a low-exposure area. The
reality is that cyclones and other natural hazards cannot be prevented, but vulnerability of
people to them can be reduced.

MEDIA CONTACTS

Janine Kandel
Head of Communications
Tel: + 49-152-247-531-36
Email: kandel@vie.unu.edu

Nadine Hoffmann
Communication Associate
Tel: + 49-152-247-531-38
Email: hoffmann@vie.unu.edu
WorldRiskIndex presented by Prof. Birkmann at a high level event in New York

Prof. Dr. Jörn Birkmann, director of the Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning, University of
Stuttgart and member of the IRDR (Integrated Research on Disaster Risk) Science Committee
presented together with colleagues from the UN University and the Alliance Development Works
the WorldRiskReport and the latest results of the WorldRiskIndex. The high level event that took
place at the German House in New York on 26 February 2016 was attended by more than 100
diplomats, UN officials and scientists. It was hosted by H.E. Ambassador Harald Braun,
Permanent Representative of Germany and H.E. Ambassador Masud Bin Momen, Permanent
Representative of Bangladesh.

The World Risk Index (see http://www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus/Internationales/WorldRiskIndex/) developed and

calculated by Prof. Birkmann and Dr. Welle from the University of Stuttgart, evaluates the
exposure to natural hazards faced by 171 countries and assesses the inherent vulnerability in the
countries towards suffering from impacts when facing these hazards

The index shows that Vanuatu is the country with the highest disaster risk (Index value: 36.72)
among the 171 countries covered by the World Risk Index 2015. Tonga ranked 2nd (Index
value: 28.45) and the Philippines, ranked 3rd (Index value: 27.98). Whereas Tonga shows an
increase in the lack of adaptive capacities, the Philippines have managed to slightly reduce their
lack of adaptive capacities and susceptibility.

Thus, one can conclude from the results of the WorldRiskIndex that the conventional
classification of countries into least developed, middle income and high income countries is not
sufficiently applicable anymore for risk reduction and adaptation strategies that have been
agreed upon in Sendai (Sendai Framework) and the COP 21 in Paris in 2015. For implementing
the Sendai and Paris agreements, we need to better account for similarities of countries in terms
of hazard exposure and vulnerability profiles said Prof. Birkmann during the event.

Moreover, Dr. Garschagen from the UN University stressed that the report clearly shows that
hunger and food insecurity have negative effects on disaster risks and that disasters might
increase food insecurity. Floods or cyclone events, for example, often do not only destroy
harvests and granaries; they also destroy transportation infrastructure and lifelines, which
hampers the provision of supplies to crisis regions. Not only do disasters often have devastating
consequences for a country’s food situation but food insecurity conversely also raises disaster
risk.

To read more about the key results of the WorldRiskIndex, visit the following website www.uni-
stuttgart.de/ireus/Internationales/WorldRiskIndex/
The full report can be downloaded at World Risk Report 2015.
More information about the science base of the WorldRiskIndex can be found in the following
peer-reviewed journal papers:

Welle, T. and Birkmann, J. (2015) The World Risk Index, in: Journal of Extreme Events (JOEE),
Vol. 2, No. 1 –
see: http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscinet/joee or https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Joern_Birkmann2/publica
tions

Birkmann, J. and Welle, T. (2015) Assessing the risk of loss and damage: exposure, vulnerability
and risk to climate related hazards for different country classifications, in: International Journal
of Global Warming, Vol 8, No. 2 /2015(DOI 10.1504/IJGW.2015.071963
–
see http://www.inderscience.com/jhome.php?jcode=IJGW or https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Joern_Birkmann2/pu
blications

Persons on this photo from right to left:

Mr. Jo Scheuer, Director / Chief of Profession Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction, United
Nations Development Programme
Professor Jörn Birkmann, Director, Institute of Spatial and Regional Planning, University of Stuttgart
H.E. Ambassador Masud Bin Momen, Permanent Representative of Bangladesh
H.E. Ambassador Harald Braun, Permanent Representative of Germany
Ms. Carla Mucavi, Director, Liaison Office of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations
Dr. Matthias Garschagen, Head of Vulnerability Assessment, Risk Management and Adaptive
Planning, United Nations University, UNU-EHS
Mr. Peter Mucke, Director of Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft, Germany, and Managing Director of the
World Risk Report