PROBABILISTIC SPECTRAL ACCELERATION MAPS OF THE PHILIPPINES

USING THE INFERRED UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

SHEAR WAVE VELOCITY PROFILE

Henremagne C. Peñarubia
Earthquake Engineering and Strong Motion Section - Seismological Observation and Earthquake Prediction Division
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology-Department of Science and Technology
Quezon City, Philippines

Abstract: The probabilistic spectral acceleration map of the Philippines using the site model inferred from the United States
Geological Survey shear wave velocity of the upper 30 meters of soil layer for the whole archipelago will be discussed. Known
earthquake area source zones, subduction zones, active faults, binned seismic occurrence rates and uncertainties in the catalogued
earthquake parameters and in ground motion prediction models were incorporated resulting in a conservative hazard estimate
which may be utilized for the National Building Code-compliant construction and retrofit of seemingly unsafe structures. These
seismic hazard maps may well be used as building safety tool and basis for decisions on seismic zoning and disaster risk
reduction.

Key words: probabilistic spectral acceleration map, shear wave velocity, disaster risk reduction

1 INTRODUCTION https://earthquake.usgs.gov. Utilizing the open-source

Seismic hazard assessment on a specific site can be
conducted considering a specific earthquake generator with
specific parameters such as magnitude, location, depth,
focal mechanism and time of occurrence. It can also be
carried out by considering all possible earthquake sources
in the vicinity integrating combined uncertainties in
magnitude and distance. This study focuses on the probable
seismic hazard that can be generated by the latter method.
1.1 Objective
The purpose of this study is to determine the probabilistic
ground acceleration at relevant spectral periods using the
inferred USGS shear wave velocity of the upper 30 meters
of soil layer as a site model for the entire archipelago.
1.2 Methodology
In the absence of a high resolution national site model, the
probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the Philippines
as proposed by Peñarubia et al., (2017) utilized a site model
of rock site and stiff soil (shear wave velocity of the upper
30 meters of soil layer, Vs30=760m/sec and
Vs30=360m/sec, respectively). This study employed the
same source models, ground motion prediction models and
logic tree ratios except for the site model. The alternative
site model used is the approximated Vs30 via correlation
to topographic slope, Wald and Allen (2007) and Allen and
Wald (2009). The global slope-based Vs30 has a 30 arc-
seconds grid resolution (0.0083333333 degrees) or
approximately 926 meters and can be downloaded from the
United States Geological Survey (USGS) website, URL:
software OpenQuake (OQ) Engine, the probabilistic
acceleration maps were modelled and thereafter plotted in
Quantum GIS (QGIS Development Team, 2009; Philgis).
1.3 Inputs
A total of 1,179 historical and instrumental earthquake
events (Mw5.2 and above) from 1600 to 2015 constituted
the PSHA database, Figure 1, which is approximately 2%
of the Philippine earthquake catalogue. Seventy events were
in the range of Mw7.0 – Mw7.6 while 12 events had
moment magnitude greater than Mw7.6. This seismicity of
the Philippines was primarily generated and ascribed to
known active faults and trenches in Figure 2 based on
epicentral location and depth. Other events not located in
those sources were attributed to the area where it was
plotted, Figure 3. These area sources are marked by similar
seismicity, global positioning system (GPS) vectors
(Bacolcol et al., 2012) and bounded by the surface
manifestations of active faults and trenches. The ground
motion prediction models (GMPM) used to characterize the
source-to-site seismic wave attenuation for all active faults
and area source zones were Chiou and Youngs (2014),
Abrahamson et al. (2014) and Campbell and Bozorgnia
(2014) on a 40% - 30% - 30% logic tree weights while
Atkinson and Boore (2003) and Youngs et al. (1997) were
used for all six trench source zones on a 90% - 10%
uncertainty ratio. The shear wave velocity profile was
extracted from the United States Geological Survey (USGS)
website, Figure 4, that varied from Vs30 = 180 m/sec at
plains to Vs30 = 760 m/sec in the mountain regions.
 Magnitude, Mw

Fig. 3 Area Source Zones

Fig. 1 PSHA Database

Vs30, m/sec

Fig. 2 Active Faults and Trenches Source Zones Fig. 4 USGS Vs30 Site Model
2 ILLUSTRATION AND DISCUSSION

2.1 Comparison with other models

As an illustrative case, a preliminary modelling was
conducted on a smaller region using the same input
parameters. The island of Panay was selected as it is
located on a very seismically active inland fault, the West
Panay Fault that produced some of the largest magnitude
inland seismic events in the past 130 years. Equally active
trenches nearby, the Negros Trench and the Manila Trench
also generated large shallow seismic events that may
generate another large event in the years to come. Peak
ground acceleration (PGA) maps of Panay Island in
Figures 5, 6 and 7 clearly delineates the relative differences
in the modelling results. Figure 5 used Vs30 = 760 m/sec
site model that resulted to a high hazard area around the
closest earthquake source, the West Panay Fault, located in
the midst of the dark-shaded area. Figure 6 used a site
model with Vs30 = 360 m/sec resulting to a relatively
larger envelop of more intense acceleration values than that
of Figure 5, that may imply amplification effect due to
softer site model. The inferred USGS Vs30 site model,
Fig. 6 Stiff Soil Site Model
Figure 7, reflects the thinnest envelop around the causative
fault yet the largest maximum ground acceleration among
the three. However, the Vs30 values in the mountains
appears to be underestimated (Grutas R. & Yamanaka H.,
2012). Figure 6 poses to require the most conservative
seismic design due to intense acceleration extent. Figure 7
turns up to be the most economical for seismic design
farther from the seismic source, but in contrast requires
most expensive seismic design at very short distances as
structural members need to be more earthquake-resistant.

Fig. 7 USGS Vs30 Site Model

2.2 Modelling Results

The probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of the
Philippines at 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years
shows the PGA in Figure 8 revealing a source zone-
specific modelling results. The largest acceleration values
of 0.4g to 0.64g are located closest to the known active
faults and area source zones with high activity rates. The
Fig. 5 Rock Site Model
lowest horizontal ground shaking hazard of 0.1g or less is
located in the Islands of Palawan except the north-eastern
islands of Culion, Busuanga, Cuyo and other smaller
islands in their vicinity which resulted to a range of 0.1g to
0.25g. The rest of the country is exposed to maximum peak
ground horizontal accelerations greater than 0.25g.
Acceleration, g
Fig. 8 Peak Ground Acceleration Map
The resulting spectral acceleration map of the Philippines at
spectral period, T = 0.2 sec, SA(0.2 sec) in Figure 9 shows
the maximum horizontal ground shaking of 1.1g and larger
located in the vicinity of the active faults (Philippine Fault
Zone segments and splays that transects from northern
Luzon to southern Mindanao, Lubang Fault, West Panay
Fault, Sibuyan Sea Fault, Negros Faults and the Zamboanga
Fault System, to name a few and at area source zones with
high activity rates (Eastern Mindanao, Southern Mindanao,
Eastern Visayas and Eastern Luzon). These values
approximate the maximum acceleration considered in
determining the design base shear of a structure in its
lifetime. This map identifies areas that are potentially
exposed to design response exceedances in the National
Structural Code of the Philippines, NSCP (NSCP, 2010).
Areas on the map with accelerations less than 1.1g implies
safe performance of code-compliant structures during the
occurrence of a maximum probable earthquake event, while
strict adherence to the minimum seismic design requirement
is implied on areas that have accelerations in excess of 1.1g
Acceleration, g
Fig. 9 Spectral Acceleration Map, SA(0.2 sec)
Figure 10 shows the maximum probable peak horizontal
ground accelerations at spectral period, T = 1.0 sec. In the
July 7, 2017 Mw6.5 offshore Surigao Earthquake
(Peñarubia, 2017). the natural period of most measured
sites in Surigao City and San Francisco, Surigao del Norte
was in the range of 0.5 sec to 1.2 sec. Moreover, a
horizontal acceleration in the range of 0.25g to 0.40g
approximates intensity VII to intensity VIII or Destructive
to Very Destructive ground shaking effects as shown in
Figure 11. This information may imply that areas on the
SA (1.0 sec) map with acceleration values greater than
0.25g may experience intense horizontal ground shaking,
landslides and rockslides at steep and unconsolidated
slopes and liquefaction at water-saturated and reclaimed
areas during a maximum probable earthquake. Areas with
acceleration values greater than 0.6g on this map implies
an intensity of ground shaking greater than PEIS VIII or
Very Destructive to Devastating during a maximum
probable earthquake with a 10% probability of exceedance
in 50 years. This imply that even larger acceleration values
on this map may occur at least once at this return period.
 Figure 12 shows the probabilistic spectral acceleration map
Acceleration, g at spectral period, T=3.0 seconds, SA(3.0sec). The
maximum acceleration of less than 0.26g on a few spots
inland reveals the delimiting effect of seismic wave
attenuation in the long period range largely controlled by
magnitude and distance from the source. Acceleration
values less than 0.1g on the map at this spectral period
implies safe performance of rigid and low-rise buildings
whose structural natural period would normally be in the
short period range. Acceleration values greater than 0.1g
on the map may generate an approximately PEIS VI ground
shaking hazard on high-rise and long-span structures which
is more likely coming from distant but large magnitude
earthquake events.

Acceleration, g

Fig. 10 Spectral Acceleration Map, SA(1.0 sec)

Fig. 12 Spectral Acceleration Map, SA(3.0 sec)

3 CONCLUSION

The resulting spectral acceleration maps using the global

slope-based Vs30 shear wave velocity of the upper 30
meters of soil layer appear to be a relatively good
approximation specially at 926-meter grid resolution for
Fig 11 PHIVOLCS Earthquake Intensity Scale use as a national site model. The resulting ground shaking
acceleration values are dense enough and way too difficult
to achieve from any site-specific geotechnical investigation
at similar dense resolution. The drawback, however is in
the relatively low Vs30 estimates at mountain regions,
although quite reliable at plains and flatlands.
In the absence of a detailed geotechnical exploration, the
USGS Vs30 may be used for seismic hazard and risk
assessment most effectively at urban areas located on
flatlands, former estuaries, deltas and reclaimed areas.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
Acknowledgment is hereby extended to my PHIVOLCS
colleagues who contributed directly and indirectly in the
accomplishment of this work. My heartfelt appreciation to
my wife, Lourdes, and to our children for their unfailing
support and understanding.
REFERENCES
Abrahamson, Silva and Kamai (2014) “Summary of the
ASK14 Ground Motion Relation for Active Crustal
Regions”. Earthquake Spectra, Volume 30, Number 3
Allen, T. I., and Wald, D. J., 2009, On the use of high-
resolution topographic data as a proxy for seismic site
conditions (Vs30), Bulletin of the Seismological Society
of America, 99, no. 2A, 935-943.
Atkinson, G. A. and Boore, D. M. (2003). Empirical
ground-motion relations for subduction-zone earthquakes
and their application to Cascadia and other regions. Bu,
93(4):1703–1729
Bacolcol, T. C., Solidum Jr., R.U., Yu, S, Luis Jr., A.L., Jorgio,
J.F., Pelicano, A., PHIVOLCS GPS Working Group (2012).
Current motions of the Philippine Mobile Belt derived from
Global Positioning System data, PHIVOLCS Technical Report
Campbell, K.W. and Bozorgnia, Y. (2014) “NGA-West2
Ground Motion Model for the Average Horizontal
Components of PGA, PGV, and 5 % Damped Linear
Acceleration Response Spectra”, Earthquake Spectra,
Volume 30, Number 3, pages 1087 – 1115
Chiou, B. S.-J. and R. R. Youngs (2014). “Update of the
Chiou and Youngs NGA model for the average
horizontal component of peak ground motion and
response spectra”. In: Earthquake Spectra 30.3, pages
1117–1153
GEM (2017). The OpenQuake-engine User Manual.
GlobalEarthquake Model (GEM) Technical Report 2017-
02.doi:10.13117/GEM.OPENQUAKE.MAN.ENGINE.2
.3/01, 193pages.
Grutas, R. & Yamanaka, H. (2012). Mapping the Seismic Site
Conditions in Metro Manila Based on Microtremor
Measurements, Topographic Data and Geomorphology, 9th
International Conference on Urban Earthquake Engineering
(9CUEE) and 4th Asia Conference on Earthquake Engineering,
March 6-8, 2012, TITECH p.333-339
National Structural Code of the Philippines, 6th ed., Vol 1,
2010, NSCP C101-10 ISSN 2094-5477. Association of
Structural Engineers of the Philippines (ASEP), Manila
National Structural Code of the Philippines, 7th ed., Vol
1, 2015, NSCP C101-10 ISSN 2094-5477. Association
of Structural Engineers of the Philippines (ASEP),
Manila
Peñarubia, H. C., (2017). Lessons Learnt from the Ms6.7 10
February 2017 offshore Surigao City Earthquake
Damage, Proceedings of the 2017 PICE National
Midyear Convention, Pasay City, Philippines.
Peñarubia, H.C, De Ocampo, J.B., Grutas, R.N. (2017).
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of the Philippines,
Proceedings of the 18th Association of Structural
Engineers of the Philippines (ASEP) International
Convention, Quezon City, Philippines
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology
(PHIVOLCS), URL: https://phivolcs.dost.gov.ph
Philgis basemaps, URL: https://www.philgis.org
QGIS Development Team, 2009. QGIS Geographic
Information System. Open Source Geospatial
Foundation. URL http://qgis.osgeo.org
Silva, V., Crowley, H., Pagani, M., Monelli, D., Pinho, R.
(2012). Development and application of OpenQuake, an
open source software for seismic risk assessment,
Proceedings of the 15th World Conference on
Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, Portugal, paper n.
United States Geological Survey (USGS)
URL: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes
Wald, D. J., and Allen, T. I.,2007, Topographic slope as a
proxy for seismic site conditions and amplification,
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 97, no.
5, 1379-1395.
Weatherill, G., Pagani, H., Monelli, D., (2012). The Hazard
Component of the GEM Modeller’s Toolkit: A
Framework for the Preparation and Analysis of
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard (PSHA) Input Tools,
Proceedings of the 15th World Conference on
Earthquake Engineering, Lisbon, Portugal
Youngs, R.R., Chiou, S-J., Silva, W.J., Humphrey, J.R.
(1997). “Strong Ground Motion Attenuation
Relationships for Subduction Zone Earthquakes”,
Seismological Research Letters Volume 68, No. 1,