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David Nott
standj@nus.edu.sg
Department of Statistics and Applied Probability
National University of Singapore
GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking DSAP, NUS, Semester 2, 2008/2009 – 1
How to calculate with probabilities (cont.)
Suppose you are on a game show and given a choice of three doors.
Behind one is a car; behind the others are goats. You pick door No. 1,
and the host, who knows what is behind the doors, opens No. 3, which
has a goat. He then asks if you want to pick No. 2. Should you switch?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhlc7peGlGg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2L_2psS9uI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P9WFKmLK0dc
de Méré’s Paradox
de Méré’s Paradox
de Méré’s Paradox
He then tried modifying the game to say that a pair of 6’s would appear at least once, if a pair of
dice was rolled 24 times.
de Méré’s Paradox
He then tried modifying the game to say that a pair of 6’s would appear at least once, if a pair of
dice was rolled 24 times.
1
He reasoned that since each pair of 6’s has probability and since 24
36 , 36 is equal to 4
6 , the
probabilities of the two games would be the same, and his winning ways would continue.
de Méré’s Paradox
He then tried modifying the game to say that a pair of 6’s would appear at least once, if a pair of
dice was rolled 24 times.
1
He reasoned that since each pair of 6’s has probability and since 24
36 , 36 is equal to 4
6 , the
probabilities of the two games would be the same, and his winning ways would continue.
Then
n
P (∪ni=1 Ai ) = P (Ai ) − P (Ai ∩ Aj )
i=1 i<j
+ P (Ai ∩ Aj ∩ Ak )
i<j<k
− · · · + (−1)n−1 P (∩ni=1 Ai ).
GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking DSAP, NUS, Semester 2, 2008/2009 – 144
How to calculate with probabilities (cont.)
Matching Problem
7 couples attend a dancing class where the instructor pairs everyone off
at random.
What is the probability that at least one couple gets to dance together?
Olofsson (2007)
GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking DSAP, NUS, Semester 2, 2008/2009 – 145
How to calculate with probabilities (cont.)
Matching Problem
7 couples attend a dancing class where the instructor pairs everyone off
at random.
What is the probability that at least one couple gets to dance together?
Answer:
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
7 × − 21 × + 35 × − 35 × + 21 × −7× +1×
7 42 210 840 2520 5040 5040
1 1 1 1 1 1
=1− + − + − + ≈ 0.6321
2 6 24 120 720 5040
Olofsson (2007)
GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking DSAP, NUS, Semester 2, 2008/2009 – 145
How to calculate with probabilities (cont.)
Matching Problem
7 couples attend a dancing class where the instructor pairs everyone off
at random.
What is the probability that at least one couple gets to dance together?
Answer:
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
7 × − 21 × + 35 × − 35 × + 21 × −7× +1×
7 42 210 840 2520 5040 5040
1 1 1 1 1 1
=1− + − + − + ≈ 0.6321
2 6 24 120 720 5040
Do you notice a pattern in the fractions? For n couples the answer would be
1 1 1 1 1 1 1
− + − + − + ··· ± ≈ 0.6321
1! 2! 3! 4! 5! 6! n!
Olofsson (2007)
GEM2900: Understanding Uncertainty & Statistical Thinking DSAP, NUS, Semester 2, 2008/2009 – 145