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T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVI No.34 Monday, 26 June – 2 July 2017 Pgs.22 Rs.18

Markets struggle at higher levels Now follow us on Instagram, Facebook &


By Sanjay R Bhatia Twitter at moneytimes_1991 on a daily basis
to get a view of the stock market and the
The markets recorded gains but on the back of negative breadth happenings which many may not be aware of.
and high volumes, which is a negative sign. The markets
continued to struggle at the higher levels around the 9700 mark.
The FIIs turned net sellers in the cash segment but
were net buyers in the derivatives segment. The DIIs
remained net buyers during the week. Crude oil prices
Believe it or not!
remained under pressure trading between $42-47 on  Sakuma Exports recommended at Rs.70.05 in TF
the back of high inventory data. On the global front, last week, zoomed to Rs.90.85 fetching 30% returns
the US markets remained under pressure. On the in just one week!
domestic front, the markets keenly await the progress  Goodluck India recommended at Rs.87.20 in TF
of monsoon and GST implementation on 1 July 2017. last week, zoomed to Rs.97.10 fetching 11% returns
Technically, the prevailing negative technical in just one week!
conditions weighed on the market sentiment. The  Hilton Metal Forging recommended at Rs.25.95 in
Stochastic, MACD, KST and RSI are all placed below TT on 5 June 2017, hit a new high of Rs.35.45 last
their respective averages on the daily and weekly week fetching 37% returns in just three weeks!
charts. Further, the RSI is still placed in the  Nelcast recommended at Rs.57.95 in TT on 5 June
overbought zone on the weekly chart. These negative 2017, zoomed to Rs.69.50 last week fetching 20%
technical conditions could lead to intermediate bouts
returns in just three weeks!
of selling pressure especially at the higher levels.
 L&T Finance Holdings recommended at Rs.127 in
The prevailing positive technical conditions, however,
SP on 5 June 2017, hit a new high of Rs.150.10 last
still hold good. The Nifty is placed above its 50-day
week fetching 18% returns in just three weeks!
SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-
day SMA is placed above its 100-day and 200-day (SP – Smart Picks; TF – Techno Funda; TT – Tower Talk)
SMA. Its 100-day SMA is placed above its 200-day
SMA indicating a ‘golden cross’ breakout. These This happens only in Money Times!
positive technical conditions could lead to buying Now in its 26th Year
support at lower levels.
The ADX line is placed above the +DI line and the -DI line and is also placed above the 25 level. But it has come off its
recent highs, which indicates that the trend is losing strength. The +DI line is placed above the -DI line and is placed
above 23. But it has come off its recent highs, which indicates that the buyers are abstaining from taking large fresh long
positions.

A Time Communications Publication 1


The benchmark indices failed to sustain above the 9638
level, which is a negative sign for the markets and clearly
shows that the markets are struggling at the higher
levels. The market sentiment remains cautious.
Corrections are being witnessed in bits and pieces. It is
important that the Nifty moves and sustains above the
9638 level for buying support to be witnessed and to test
the 9750 level. Follow-up buying support remains crucial
at higher levels. 9500 and 9350 remain crucial support
levels.
In the meanwhile, the markets could take cues from the
news flow on the implementation of GST, progress of the
monsoon, Dollar-Rupee exchange rate, global markets
and crude oil prices.
Technically, the Sensex faces resistance at the 31523, 31725, 32000 and 32225 levels and seeks support at the 31333,
31060, 31000, 30247 and 29800 levels. The resistance levels for the Nifty are placed at 9638, 9710, 9750, 9825 and
9900 while its support levels are placed at 9500, 9350, 9275 and 9220.

BAZAR.COM

Tryst with destiny


At the stroke of midnight on 15 August 1947, Jawaharlal Nehru’s historic speech of our tryst with destiny is still fresh in
our minds. Since then, tests of our independence have taken place innumerable times and all of them were gallantly
faced by our military, para military and even the civilians.
But economic progress has outpaced all of these non-economic parameters and brought India to the forefront of the
happening nations to touch a $1 trillion GDP after six decades. But now, it is racing towards the $2 trillion mark, which
may more than double over the next five years. This is no political rhetoric but a reality and the historic moment of one
country one tax arrives on 1 July 2017 and time for a second tryst with destiny!
Unity on the diverse GST bill deserves a midnight bash. The single-most unifying factor that unfolds as the biggest
indirect tax reform shall happen at the stroke of midnight on 1 July 2017 in the central hall of the Parliament. “The world
will witness a transformation and how all the political parties of different ideologies unite for the implementation of the
GST” said PM Narendra Modi. FM Arun Jaitley reiterated that the GST, over the medium-to-long-term, will lead to a rise
in central and state revenue as the size of the formal economy will grow and a more efficient tax system shall bring in
better compliance. To be sure, this will have a positive impact on the country’s GDP.
But, the transition despite the midnight bash will have its labor pangs. Like every change which is resisted, this too is
facing hesitancy and fear psychosis among traders. Businesses on the streets have already shrunk in anticipation of the
GST being implemented and may remain shrunk for the whole of July 2017.
Consequently, the stock market, too, may witness shrunk volumes and a solid cap on the recent tops scaled. How far and
how soon it dips depends on the holding capacity of the bulls. Thus, it is a forgone conclusion that July 2017 may witness
a negative bias and keep the benchmarks under pressure.
The monsoon progress so far needs a lot to be desired and a well-distributed rain even in July may not bring a shine to
the market. The scene, therefore, shifts to the Q1 results which may not have any spectacular glow. Politically, all fresh
announcements may be put to rest in view of the Presidential polls and consolidation of vote banks.
The issues of farm loan waivers and tackling of NPAs will dominate the front pages of pink papers. With the initiation of
insolvency and liquidation moves against failing corporates, rumour of the likely merger of PSU banks into 3-4 big banks
are doing the rounds.
The sector which is glowing in the current sunshine is housing finance. With housing loan rates falling to as low as 8.5%
and robust inflows of money through term deposits or fixed deposits, the net interest margins of housing finance
companies will rise. No wonder HDFC, LIC Housing Finance, Gruh Finance, DHFL are all near their all-time highs with no
indication of developing a resistance on the upper curve.

A Time Communications Publication 2


FMCG is another segment on the move. Godrej Consumer Products, HUL, P&G, Nestle, Marico, Emami are all on the move.
Defence and Engineering is yet another segment to watch. Larsen & Toubro’s strategic sale to ABB and its entry into the
defence arena makes it a stock to grab in the coming months.
Pharma remains low with Aurobindo Pharma showing signs of support and consolidation. Pharma majors may be
enjoying contrarian buy outs; same goes for the IT segment.
For the months of July and August 2017, let the market remain sideways to find enough horse power to forge ahead on
the eve of Diwali, which is early this year. Till then, let the tryst with destiny stay.

TRADING ON TECHNICALS

Profit-booking pressure hangs overhead


By Hitendra Vasudeo
Sensex Daily Trend DRV Weekly Trend WRV Monthly Trend MRV
Last Close 31138 Up 30902 30149 29839 Up 27610
Last week, the Sensex opened at 31168.98, attained a high at 31522.86 and moved to a low of 31110.39 before it closed
the week at 31138.11 and thereby showed a flat gain of 81 points on a week-to-week basis.
Daily
A correction towards the daily reversal value (DRV) of 30902 could happen in the near-term. The last time it hit the DRV,
the move up was from 29241. The last rising swing on the daily chart is from 29241.
The retracement levels of the rise from 29241 to 31522.86 are placed at 30657-30391-30115.
Support is likely to be seen around the DRV of 30902 as the 23.6% retracement is at 30970.
Last week, we did see the Sensex rise above 31430 but it closed lower at 31290 while closing lower at 31138 on Friday,
23 June 2017.
A further rise can continue on a breakout and close above 31522, the recent new high.
Resistance will be at 31257-31403-31522.
The trend is up although an intra-week correction was seen last week. A further rise will continue on a breakout and
close above 31522 on a weekly basis.
Weekly
In the last edition, we talked about the Evening Doji Star expressing that a near-term correction or sideways movement
could be seen. As rightly stated, the movement was volatile last week followed by a correction at the end of the week.
The correction was intra-week but the end of the week saw a sideways movement considering the week-to-week
closing.
An Inverted Hammer was formed last week suggesting that the upside once again appears to be locked and
sustainability issues could remain.
In the last edition, the same issue was addressed on
account of the Evening Doji Star.
Support will be at 31017-30869.
In spite of the fear of a correction and sideways
volatility, the Sensex has managed to remain above
31000 since 26 May 2017. It did make a new high
thereafter but the nature is of a correction/sideways
movement. Therefore, the 23.6% retracement will be
critical for a near-term deep correction stretching
down to 30657-30391-30115.
Consolidation and volatility as long as 31000 is held
is fine. But eventually, it must trigger a breakout
above 31522 with a bullish candle on a sustained
basis.

A Time Communications Publication 3


The Yearly Level 4 is far off at 36220 and 6 months are still left to complete CY2017. The Sensex is above Level 3, which
is at 29637. A correction and consolidation is required to conquer 36220 by the end of 2017. It may be reasonable to
expect a correction to the retracement level before registering a sustained new high with a bullish movement.
Rally from 22494 (February 2016): The rally from 22494 to 31522 had one major intermediate top and bottom at 29077
and 25753. The rise from 22493 to 29077 was corrected by 50% to 25753. Since then, the correction has been marginal
to the extent of 21-day EMA and 34-day EMA, which has the positive slope. Also, it has a synchronized behavior from
averages 21-34-55-89 day EMAs. The synchronization makes a bull market in the respective time frames likely daily,
weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly. Synchronization is an essential element of a bull market and is called ‘sync’ in
short.
On the basis of this, the correction any time in the near future cannot afford to be below 29077. Overlapping over the
earlier peak of 30024 could be accepted but not below 29077.
Trend based on Rate of Change (RoC)
Daily chart:
1-Day trend - Down Relative Strength (RS)
3-Day trend - Down Signals a stock’s ability to perform in a
8-Day trend - Up dynamic market.
Weekly chart: Knowledge of it can lead you to profits.
1-Week trend - Up
POWER OF RS - at Rs.3100 for 1 year:
3-Week trend - Down
8-Week trend - Up What you get
Monthly chart: Most Important- Association for 1 year
1-Month trend - Down at Rs.3100
3-Month trend - Up 1-2 buy / sell per day on a daily basis
8-Month trend - Up 1 buy per week
Quarterly chart: 1 buy per month
1-Quarter trend - Up 1 buy per quarter
3-Quarter trend - Up 1 buy per year
For more details, contact Money Times on
8-Quarter trend - Up 022-22616970/4805 or
Yearly chart: moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
1-Year trend - Up
3-Year trend - Up
8-Year trend - Up
The ROC trend suggests that a correction on the daily and weekly charts is being witnessed.
BSE Mid-Cap Index
Weekly chart:
1-Week trend - Down
3-Week trend - Down
8-Week trend - Down
The ROC trend on the BSE Mid-Cap index suggests a correction and sideways volatility. Expect profit-booking pressure
to prevail till 15122 is not crossed.
The last correction bottoms of 14276 and 13995 could be tested.
BSE Small-Cap Index
1-Week trend - Down
3-Week trend - Up
8-Week trend - Up

A Time Communications Publication 4


The BSE Small-Cap index appears to be faring better than the BSE Mid-Cap index. But it still has to face the Engulfing
Bear Candlestick pattern, which will have the effects of a near-term correction unless a breakout and close above 15811
is witnessed.
Strategy for the week
Traders long and holding the same can maintain the stop loss at 30800.
Use the rise to 31257-31522 to exit long or book profits.
Profit-booking and exiting long positions on the Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indices can be warranted considering the
further correction possibilities.

WEEKLY UP TREND STOCKS


Let the price move below Center Point or Level 2 and when it move back above Center Point or Level 2 then buy with
whatever low registered below Center Point or Level 2 as the stop loss. After buying if the price moves to Level 3 or above
then look to book profits as the opportunity arises. If the close is below Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change
from Up Trend to Down Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Up Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above

Weekly Up
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Weak Demand Demand Supply Supply
below point point point point
ADITYA BIRLA NUVO 1742.00 1662.0 1677.7 1726.3 1790.7 1903.7 63.1 1701.3 02-06-17
LAKSHMI VILAS 200.15 192.5 193.3 199.3 206.2 219.0 68.3 195.5 19-05-17
EVEREADY INDUSTRIES 349.95 336.2 338.3 347.9 359.6 380.9 67.1 332.9 09-06-17
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES 1435.00 1391.0 1402.7 1423.3 1455.7 1508.7 66.1 1371.0 09-06-17
ICICI BANK 291.50 284.5 285.5 290.5 296.4 307.3 64.1 290.2 23-06-17

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend.
Close below averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility
(Up/Down) within Down Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative
Strength (RS) is statistical indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.

WEEKLY DOWN TREND STOCKS


Let the price move above Center Point or Level 3 and when it move back below Center Point or Level 3 then sell with whatever
high registered above Center Point or Level 3 as the stop loss. After selling if the prices moves to Level 2 or below then look to
cover short positions as the opportunity arises. If the close is above Weekly Reversal Value then the trend will change from Down
Trend to Up Trend. Check on Friday after 3.pm to confirm weekly reversal of the Down Trend.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above

Weekly Down
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
COAL INDIA 245.40 227.0 240.3 248.5 253.6 256.7 24.93 257.81 10-03-17
IDBI (IND.DEV.BANK O) 56.20 48.2 53.7 56.6 59.1 59.5 26.03 58.94 19-05-17
ONGC (OIL&NAT.GAS CO) 158.00 140.6 153.5 161.8 166.3 170.2 26.66 166.97 19-05-17
OIL INDIA 275.35 247.1 268.2 282.2 289.4 296.3 27.36 289.81 21-04-17
LUPIN 1061.00 951.0 1033.0 1087.0 1115.0 1141.0 28.91 1129.50 26-05-17

*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend.
Close below averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility
(Up/Down) within Down Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.
! Note: Momentum breakout trend of stocks value (volume*close) between 10-80 lakhs.

A Time Communications Publication 5


EXIT LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Supply Point Supply Point Supply Point Strong Above Demand Point Monthly RS

BHARAT PETR.COR(BPCL) 630.00 672.93 686.50 700.07 744.00 557.9 38.08


VARDHMAN TEXTILES 1166.00 1218.09 1238.50 1258.91 1325.00 1045.1 39.38
FINOLEX CABLES 479.70 495.76 501.15 506.54 524.00 450.1 42.45
APAR INDUSTRIES 756.00 807.77 825.00 842.23 898.00 661.8 44.79
HIND.PETR.CORP.(HPCL) 508.30 522.41 528.25 534.09 553.00 472.9 44.95
INDIAN OIL CORPORATI 383.30 398.29 404.42 410.56 430.40 346.3 45.89
RAMCO CEMENTS 682.00 704.50 713.00 721.50 749.00 632.5 46.02
CHENNAI PETROL.CORP. 341.30 361.58 368.25 374.92 396.50 305.1 46.79
GAIL (GAS AUTHORTY ) 354.20 376.02 383.55 391.08 415.45 312.2 47.38
ATUL 2450.00 2481.12 2500.00 2518.88 2580.00 2321.1 48
HAVELL'S INDIA 463.70 477.93 484.22 490.52 510.90 424.6 49.14
VESUVIUS INDIA 1210.00 1240.97 1259.50 1278.03 1338.00 1084.0 49.77

BUY LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Demand point Demand point Demand Point Weak below Supply Point Monthly RS

POLARIS CONSULTING 244.80 243.81 238.50 233.19 216.00 288.8 67.61


GRAPHITE INDIA 152.65 141.66 135.75 129.84 110.70 191.8 67.08
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES 1435.00 1392.43 1376.50 1360.57 1309.00 1527.4 61.61
RAJESH EXPORTS 690.00 683.35 674.50 665.65 637.00 758.4 60.76
COLGATE-PALMOLIVE (I) 1106.00 1077.98 1065.00 1052.02 1010.00 1188.0 60.37
PROCTOR & GAMBLE HYG 8053.00 7883.36 7801.00 7718.64 7452.00 8581.4 57.84

PUNTER PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a
possible time frame of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above, RS- Strength

Last Weak Supply RS-


Scrip BSE Code Demand Point Trigger Supply point
Close below point Strength
D B CORPORATION 533151 381.65 376.00 384.50 370.30 393.3 407.5 51.44
INTRASOFT TECHNOLOGI 533181 385.80 372.15 397.70 322.00 444.5 520.2 54.61
MSL 539275 187.95 180.00 187.95 170.00 199.0 217.0 53.81
SUPRAJIT ENGINEERING 532509 332.85 321.20 337.75 309.75 355.1 383.1 68.31

TOWER TALK
 Accelya Kale Solutions, a focused I.T. company in the Aviation sector, is virtually a monopolistic business. The
growing airlines traffic and falling crude prices augurs well for this company. An excellent long-term buy.
 Better cash management and the rising NIMs are likely to boost the earnings of DCB Bank, which is one of the
fastest growing mid-cap banks.
 Meghmani Organics is likely to benefit from a good monsoon. Its caustic chloride plant is contributing to its
growing exports to Latin America. A good long-term buy.
 Asian Granito India with its strong pan India distribution network is expected to gain significantly from the
booming affordable housing segment.
 The packaging industry is set to bloom. It may be prudent to buy Uflex and Cosmo Films.
 Hindalco Industries is likely to post improved earnings in FY18 on the back of dwindling interest cost on the back
of its continued repayment of debts, swapping to lower cost funds and slow rising in price of aluminium. This share
must be added to one’s portfolio.

A Time Communications Publication 6


 Reliance Communcations, which is reeling under heavy debt and under pressure from lending institutions, is
contemplating to sell some of its realty assets to prune debt, which may trigger a turnaround. At the current beaten
down share price, there is not much to lose.
 GNA Axles is likely to soon commence its new expanded capacities. The stock could appreciate 50% within a year.
 Eros International Media gained 4.7% at Rs.254.2 on the bourses after it announced signing two film co-
production deals with a leading Turkish film company - Pana Film.
 VRL Logistics is buying land for construction of transhipment yard. Its future looks good. Buy.
 Cadila Healthcare has received USFDA approval for its Eletriptan Hydrobromide tablets (a migrane drug). A big
positive for the company.
 Reliance Defence & Engineering has tied up with Serbia state-run defence major Yugoimport to make ammunition
for India. With major tie-ups in hand, this is a good long-term buy.
 FMGC major, Bajaj Corp, plans to raise Rs.1000 crore by selling equities and other securities to fund its expansion
plans. It makes sense to buy this stock.
 Canara Bank plans to garnish Rs.393 crore by selling 9% stake in CARE. This investor-friendly bank must be
retained for long-term gains.
 Foreign brokerages are worried about the future earnings of Idea Cellular. With its EBITDA expected to taper, the
company may default on repayment of debts falling due in the next 2-3 years. It may be prudent to exit this counter.
 Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone has again floated a $500 bond sale to refinance loans and fund expansion,
which signals better times ahead. The yield on these bonds being 3.5% or less is likely to usher in big growth.
 Mahindra & Mahindra is reportedly witnessing much higher demand for its tractor segment. Its automobile
division is also doing well and the piled up stocks are getting absorbed. Accumulate.
 Insecticides (India), an agro chemical company, is likely to benefit from a good monsoon, improving irrigation
facilities and growing penetration of agro chemicals especially after it signed agreements with Nihon (Japan) and
MPM (USA) for marketing their products in India.
 Kirloskar Oil Engines has approved a
proposal for buying LaGajjar Machineries
(manufacturers of quality pumps). This
What TF+ subscribers say:
inorganic growth will quickly boost its “Think Investment… Think TECHNO FUNDA PLUS”
existing capacities. A positive for the
company. Techno Funda Plus is a superior version of the Techno Funda
 Reliance Defence & Engineering could column that has recorded near 90% success since launch.
easily double from its current level looking Every week, Techno Funda Plus identifies three fundamentally
at the recent joint ventures it has entered sound and technically strong stocks that can yield handsome
into. According to sources, the company is returns against their peers in the short-to-medium-term.
likely to get a defence order worth
~Rs.50000 crore. Most of our recommendations have fetched excellent returns to
 Tilaknagar Industries, the producer of the our subscribers. Of the 156 stocks recommended between 11
Mansion House brandy, is in for good days January 2016 and 2 January 2017 (52 weeks), we booked profit in
again. Majority of its sales are from Kerala, 125 stocks, 27 triggered the stop loss while 4 are still open and are
which has recently de-notified all its in nominal red.
highways. The stock may double from its Of the 69 stocks recommended between 9 January 2017 and 12 Jun
current level. 2017 (23 weeks), we booked 6-37% profit in 47 stocks, 5 triggered
 Williamson Magor Company, which holds the stop loss of 4% & 12% while 17 are still open.
~25% stake in Eveready worth Rs.600 crore,
trades at a market cap of ~Rs.84 crore. It has If you want to earn like this,
holdings in Mcleod Russel and real estate subscribe to TECHNO FUNDA PLUS today!
investments as well. This less known stock
could double or treble from its current level. For more details, contact Money Times on
 Indian Metal & Ferro Alloys (IMFA) has 022-22616970/22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
got environment clearance for its two mines.
Subscription Rate: 1 month: Rs.2500; 3 months: Rs.6000;
The stock could appreciate 50% from its
current level. 6 months: Rs.11000; 1 year: Rs.18000.

A Time Communications Publication 7


 National Steel & Agro Industries is likely to post an EPS of Rs.8 in FY18. The stock will soon come out from the T2T
segment as the promoter holding is now 100% in demat. It could rise to Rs.50 within a year.
 An Ahmedabad-based analyst recommends ABM Knowledgeware, Grauer & Weil (India), India Steel Works,
Puravankara and Ultramarine Pigments. His Nath Bio Genes (India) recommended at Rs.147.75 on 3 April 2017,
zoomed to Rs.353.6 last week fetching 139% returns; Cords Cable Industries recommended at Rs.80.9 on 13 March
2017, zoomed to Rs.120 last week fetching 48% returns.
 Grey market premium for AU Small Finance Bank’s IPO is Rs.100-105 and the cost of its minimum application
form is Rs.875-900.
 Grey market premium for CDSL’s IPO has declined to Rs.85-90 in spite of receiving a record-breaking response.
 Grey market premium for Eris Life Sciences’ IPO crashed to Rs.10-12 from Rs.60-62 last week.

BEST BET

Lupin Ltd
(BSE Code: 500257) (CMP: Rs.1060.85) (FV: Rs.2)
By Bikshapathi Thota
Mumbai-based Lupin Ltd is an innovation led transnational pharmaceutical company that produces a wide range of
quality, affordable generic and branded formulations and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). Its R&D endeavors
have resulted in significant progress in its NCE (new chemical entity) program. Its foray into Advanced Drug Delivery
Systems (ADDS) has resulted in the development of platform technologies that are being used to develop value-added
generic pharmaceuticals. Its world-class manufacturing facilities across India and Japan are benchmarked to
international standards and are approved by international regulatory agencies like USFDA, UK MHRA, Japan's MHLW,
TGA Australia, WHO and the MCC South Africa. Its drugs and products reach 100+ countries in the world.
Lupin is the 5th largest and amongst the top 10 fastest growing generic players in USA (5.6% market share by
prescriptions, IMS Health, September 2015) and the 2nd largest Indian pharmaceutical company by market
capitalization. It is also the 9th largest generic pharmaceutical player in Japan and the 4th largest generic pharmaceutical
company in South Africa (IMS Health, March 2016). For FY17, its consolidated turnover and PAT grew Rs.17494 crore
and Rs.2563 crore respectively.
Lupin is a fully integrated pharmaceutical company with an unrivaled position in USA, India and Japan backed by
cutting-edge research, world-class manufacturing facilities and a global supply chain. Its future looks bright with its
Q3FY17 results beating expectations with revenue growth of 26% YoY, driven mostly by higher sales in USA. Growing
product launches and market share in generic Glumetza, a diabetes drug, helped it achieve 57% YoY revenue growth in
USA. Improvement in gross margins due to improved product mix and forex gains helped it to report higher EBITDA.
After acquiring US-based Gavis Pharma in 2015, Lupin’s ANDA (abbreviated
Financials: (Rs. in crore)
new drug applications) pipeline in USA is strong. It plans to launch several
new drugs to boost sales in USA, which account for 43% of turnover. It Particulars FY16 FY17 FY18P
launched Generic Paxil CR tablets, Generic Pristiq tablets, Generic Temovate Sales 14208 17494 19246
Clobetasol Propionate scalp application, etc. in March 2017. It also received Expenditure 10918 14066 15417
USFDA’s approval for its Generic Suprep Bowel Prep Kit. PBDT 3896 4447 5216
Lupin’s efforts in expanding operations to other geographies are now reaping Net Profit 2279 2563 2766
benefits. Its Q3FY17 revenue from Europe and Japan grew 25% and 20% EPS (Rs.) 50.5 56.5 61.1
respectively. In addition to sales growth, favourable currency movement also
supported the overall growth.
Lupin’s domestic market growth was muted at 14%, primarily because of the impact of demonetisation. Although this
impact has stabilised now, analysts worry that the implementation of GST will impact revenue growth in the short-term.
So, the expected 18-20% improvement in domestic revenue growth will happen only in the medium-term.
To maintain its competitive advantage, Lupin has increased its R&D expenses by 45% YoY with a focus on long-term
projects - respiratory and biosimilars research, for instance. Its R&D expense is placed at an elevated level of 12.9% of its
revenue. The Company exhibits a strong balance sheet and despite a small strain due to the Gavis acquisition, its net
debt is expected to come down to zero by FY17 end. The Company’s RoE is comfortable at ~23%.

A Time Communications Publication 8


Apart from USA, Lupin’s performance in other geographies was also ahead of expectations. Growth in APAC was driven
by the addition of sales from its Shiniogi portfolio. Its USA and domestic businesses are likely to drive its top-line over
FY17-19.
Conclusion: We believe that Lupin is the best placed amongst Indian pharma majors to tackle the structural changes in
the industry. Its robust business, strong ANDA pipeline (including 28 FTFs [first to file]) and flourishing domestic
business will drive 12% EPS CAGR over FY17-19E. Hence, we have a Buy on stock with a price target of Rs.1525 (25x to
FY18E earnings) within a year.

GURU SPEAK

F&O expiry will determine the future trend


After a few weeks of lull in the stock markets, the bulls concluded on Friday, 16 June 2017, that
there was no further scope to keep the market rangebound. A clear signal emerged that day,
which we indicated in the last issue on page 5 stating “the Fed rate hike issue, which was looming
large all over the world stood discounted with the Fed’s decision to hike interest rate by 25 bps.
With this, the uncertainty was over on this issue”.
By G. S. Roongta Asian markets were well-prepared for a 25 bps rate hike. As such, Asian stock markets did not
plunge deep on Thursday, 15 June, after the Fed’s decision was announced the previous day i.e.
Wednesday, 14 June 2017.
In the last issue, we had clearly stated “the weak trend for about a month seems to be over on Friday, 16 June 2017, even
though the market still closed finally in the red by 19 points at 31056 followed by the Nifty at 9588 with two-way
volatility of 100+ points in the Sensex and 30 points in the Nifty. This clearly indicates that the Fed rate hike issue was
fully discounted on 16 June 2017. It seems that the bulls are set to start betting once again after keeping the market in a
dull and lull position for a month”.
Our confidence about the market came true with the Sensex opening positive last week as bulls started betting again as
the session progressed on Monday, 19 June 2017, proving Money Times correct yet once again to achieve a new
milestone with its accurate observations about the market while technical experts kept seeking corrections at lower
levels towards 30,873 or at least 29241 DRV. Some found the markets turning nervous while other popular print media
gave hopelessly much lower targets with their usual ‘ifs & buts’ taking no responsibility if their observations or forecasts
do not prove right.
Week before last, the Sensex opened at 31225 and made a high of 31261. The Sensex, which hardly inched up 36 points
the whole week, gave a clear signal for technical experts to give future calls for the coming week on the negative side as
per their chart theory. Otherwise, how can each chartist say the same thing?
Since the market changed direction on Monday, 19 June 2017, chartists now had no option but to give calls in the
positive direction while changing their bearish stand to bullish.
Is it not a strange option to go along with the market indices without caring about the importance of the trend? The
market trend is clearly bullish and in a bullish market, there is usually no deep correction but small corrections by way
of profit-booking to absorb the pervious rise. During April-May 2017, the market witnessed a rise of nearly 2,000 points.
So, it was most essential to digest this rise through the process of profit-booking or by way of consolidation. This is why
throughout the last three weeks, the ‘Guru Speak’ column had always stated that the market is in a consolidation phase
as it has to digest the 2000+ points rise first before rallying further.
I am happy that this column was absolutely up to the mark in its observation and forecast. If you don’t believe it, just re-
read the last issue thoroughly to satisfy yourself. Similarly, when the market had hit a new all-time high for the third
time, we had hinted that the market needs to consolidate by minor corrections or profit-booking because it was
overbought at that time and profit-booking was a must.
The week before last, the Sensex ended at 31056.40 and the Nifty at 9588, thus showing a negative weekly closing for
the first time after several weeks of positive closing. The Sensex pared 205 points on a week-to-week basis and the Nifty
80 points on 16 June 2017.
On Monday, 19 June 2017, the Sensex opened at 31169 and made a fresh new high at 31362 while closing at 31312 thus
gaining 255 points followed by the Nifty to gain 70 points at 9658.
Investors will be happy to note that the market, which had lost 205 points in the previous full week across five trading
sessions, regained more than that on one single day! It was up by 50 points (255) points to witness the highest closing of

A Time Communications Publication 9


its lifetime high. Was it strange? ‘No’ I feel, this is the beauty of a bull market. As I have said several times in the past, in a
bull market, if an investor buys any good stock even at a high level, he will get a chance to sell it at still higher prices
despite the stock having corrected by 10-15%. Here are some examples at random of stocks which I track -
1) India Cements - Suppose somebody bought this stock at its all-time high of Rs.226 and witnessed a correction of 10-
15% over the last two months to 190-194 on 14 June 2017. He could sell above Rs.220 within two weeks if he
wished to exit but he will get a price of 10-15% higher if he has the capacity to hold.
2) Andhra Sugars - The stock had made a lifetime high of Rs.340 about a month or so back and if somebody bought at
that rate, he was in a position to sell at Rs.350 on 22 June 2017, as the stock once again hit a high after correcting to
Rs.280-285.
3) Graphite India - Anybody who bought Graphite India at its high levels of Rs.125-130 in April 2017, are in profit today
despite the stock correcting to Rs.112-115 after their buying.
4) Hindalco Industries – This stock has given dozens of chances in the last two months to get in at Rs.182-186 while
selling higher above Rs.202-210.
5) Phillips Carbon Black – This stock has given multiple gains to those who firmly traded in the stock keeping a gain of
Rs.25-40 in mind. Investors will be happy to note that this stock was recommended in the ‘Guru Speak’ column at
Rs.100 over a year back. Since then, the stock has hit a lifetime high of Rs.664 i.e. over 564% returns.
When Money Times has the capability to deliver such hefty returns, then why follow any brokerage?
On Tuesday, 20 June
th
2017, the Sensex
remained
14 Edition of ‘Roongta’s Panchratna’ releasing on 1 July 2017
rangebound as the Here’s a performance review of our top 20 stock recommendations from the past issues that
single-day gain which have gained over 40 - 1500%
was higher than the
Sr. Date Scrip Name Recom. Highest % Gain
previous week’s loss, No. Rate (Rs.) since (Rs.)
was supposed to 1 April 2014 Cheslind Textiles Ltd converted into 4.98 510 400%
have been absorbed. RSWM (05:100)
Therefore, even Trident 18.80 92.30 391%
though it opened Essar Ports 50.90 150.40 195%
higher at 31392, 2 July 2014 Sarda Plywood & Industries 18.85 295 1465%
which happened to Dish TV India 62.95 110.95 76%
be the day’s high, it 3 October 2014 Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals 61.45 142.75 132%
scaled down to 4 January 2015 KEC International 94.30 283.50 201%
31261 in intra-day 5 April 2015 ABC India 88.05 148.30 68%
session but soon Shipping Corporation of India 46.15 100.90 119%
recovered its losses Tinplate Company Of India 54.30 107.70 98%
while closing near 6 July 2015 Sathavahana Ispat 35.40 75.75 114%
the previous day’s Jindal Saw 61.05 92.35 51%
close at 31298, thus 7 October 2015 JK Paper 41.90 123 194%
making a loss of 14 DCW 20.30 40.60 100%
points amid high STEL Holdings 27 91.85 240%
volatility. 8 January 2016 Perfectpac 56.75 172.50 204%
At such high levels of 9 April 2016 Indokem 3.8 38.90 924%
indices, volatility of Manaksia 40 81.25 103%
100-200 points Kanpur Plastipack 128.60 179.85 40%
means nothing. The 10 July 2016 Gujarat State Fertilizer Corporation 78.45 148.40 89%
market now needs Panchratna stocks have little risk but mindboggling returns if they click.
volatility between Panchratna has proved its merit since its launch.
300-500 points daily
The 14th edition contains five low-priced stocks from booming sectors with turnaround stories
irrespective of a
that could prove to be a Dark Horse, Multibagger or a Value Pick.
positive or negative
closing. So hurry up and book your copy now!
Several of stocks hit Subscription Rate: Rs.2500 per quarter, Rs.4000 for two quarters & Rs.7000 per annum.
all-time highs even at You can contact us on 022-22616970, 22654805 or moneytimes.support@gmail.com
such moderate levels.

A Time Communications Publication 10


Andhra Sugars at Rs.345, BEML at Rs.1544, Can Fin Homes at Rs.3218, DHFL at Rs.467, Eveready Industries at Rs.356,
L&T Finance Holding at Rs.150, L.G. Balakrishnan Bros at Rs.801, LIC Housing Finance at Rs.794, Punjab Chemicals &
Crop Protection at Rs.359, Shakti Pumps at Rs.472, Tata Steel at Rs.526, etc.
The Sensex continued its upward march on Wednesday, 21 June 2017, with a similar up and down trend throughout the
6½ hour long session to hit a high of 31336 and low of 31194 within a range of 150 points and ended with a minor loss
of 14 points at 31284 followed by the Nifty to end up in the red losing 20 points at 9633.6.
The Nifty, which attracts huge speculation, needs to cross the 9650 level decisively to enter into a higher territory/rally
going forward.
News Highlights -
1) President’s nomination, which was a big issue for the BJP, passed smoothly with the selection of Ram Nath Kovind.
2) GST implementation w.e.f. 1-07-17 is almost certain amid all speculations to defer to September 2017.
3) Larsen & Toubro’s divestment of its electrical engineering unit for Rs.14000-16000 crore is a positive for the
company’s shareholders.
4) Pharma and I.T sectors continue to drift lower on weak guidance.
5) Cement, Steel, Sugar, Fertilizers, Engineering, select Real Estate, Infrastructure and Power sectors will continue to do
well. Investors must pick and trade in these sectoral stocks based on their growth prospects.
For specific stocks, you may
subscribe to ‘Panchratna’ and MID-CAP TWINS
‘Mid-Cap Twins’ both of which
will be released on 1 July 2017. A Performance Review
In ‘Panchratna’, we have Have a look at the grand success story of ‘Mid-Cap Twins’ launched on 1 August 2016
identified five low-priced stocks Sr. Stocks Recomm. Recomm. Highest % Gain
based on their turnaround, which No. Date Price (Rs.) since (Rs.)
could do great wonders just like 1 Mafatlal Industries 01-08-16 332.85 374.40 12
Trident, Cheslind Industries, KEC 2 The Great Eastern Shipping Co. 01-08-16 335.35 477.00 42
International and several other 3 India Cements 01-09-16 149.85 226.00 51
stocks recommended in the past 4 Tata Global Beverages 01-09-16 140.10 161.60 15
issues that have gained around 5 Ajmera Realty & Infra India 01-10-16 137 251.90 84
200% within 2-3 years. 6 Transpek Industry 01-10-16 447 1074.6 140
Although the stock market made 7 Greaves Cotton 01-11-16 138.55 178.00 28
a new high for the fourth time on 8 APM Industries 01-11-16 67.10 76.85 15
Thursday, 22 June 2017, it could 9 OCL India 01-12-16 809.45 1269.50 57
not sustain the higher level 10 Prism Cement 01-12-16 93.25 129.10 38
because of profit-booking ahead 11 Mahindra CIE Automotive 01-01-17 182.50 258.00 41
of the F&O expiry for June 2017 12 Swan Energy 01-01-17 154.10 203.45 32
contracts this week. The Sensex 13 Hindalco Industries 01-02-17 191.55 203.85 6
hit a fresh all-time high at 31523 14 Century Textiles & Industries 01-02-17 856.50 1218.20 42
followed by the Nifty at 9699. But 15 McLeod Russel India 01-03-17 171.75 196.25 14
all the gains by the closing bell 16 Sonata Software 01-03-17 191 195.00 2
were eroded with a day’s low at 17 ACC 01-04-17 1446.15 1753.85 21
one time went in to the red 18 Walchandnagar Industries 01-04-17 142.25 191.80 35
hitting 31256 closing up by just 7 19 Oriental Veneer Products 01-05-17 222.30 334.20 50
points while the Nifty closed in 20 Tata Steel 01-05-17 448.85 525 17
the red by 4 points at 9630. This Thus ‘Mid-Cap Twins’ has delivered excellent results since its launch within 10 months
means that 9700 for the Nifty with majority of stocks gaining over 30%.
seems to be a great hurdle or
resistance for the time being. Next edition of ‘Mid-Cap Twins’ will be released on 1st July 2017.
On Friday, 23 June 2017, the Attractively priced at Rs.2000 per month, Rs.11000 half yearly and Rs.20,000 annually,
market after opening stayed in ‘Roongta’s Mid-cap Twins’ will be available both as print edition or online delivery.
the red throughout the session
closing lower by 152 points at 31118 while the Nifty eroded 55 points at 9575. Thus, the market has not only breached
the latest intra-day high but also broke the previous new high.

A Time Communications Publication 11


Now, there is no negative news except the on-going issues like bad loans, bankruptcy law, president election and
waiving off farmers loan by states.
Last week, this column had observed that waiving off bad loans of farmers is politically motivated and might prove
concerous going forward as it could impact the overall economy of the country.
On the one hand, Banks are saddled with writing off industrial loans to the tune of over Rs.5 lakh crore. Out of this, Rs.1
lakh crore is among three steel companies - Essar Steel, Bhushan Steel and Electrosteel Steels.
The market is worried about these issues as to how they will impact the government coffers in future.
This week is F&O expiry and the market is at an all-time high. How the Bulls are supposed to behave to carry forward
their outstanding positions is a big issue. However, the market is supposed to be volatile. So, it is not advisable to build
any fresh positions at the higher levels. But if it reacts sharply any day, one can think of buying as the bull market in the
long-term remains intact after expiry.

STOCK PICK

Veljan Denison Ltd: Hidden gem!


(BSE Code: 505232) (CMP: Rs.1232) (FV: Rs.10)
By Dildar Singh Makani
Veljan Denison Ltd (VDL) is an engineering company that manufactures Hydraulic Pumps, Motors, Valves and custom-
built Power systems and Manifold blocks. It was incorporated in 1974 as Denison Hydraulics India Ltd in technical and
financial collaboration with the Denison division of Abex Corporation, USA. When Hagglunds of Sweden acquired
Denison Hydraulics from Abex Industries, this Indian company too came into its fold and its name was changed to
Hagglunds Denison India Ltd. When Hagglunds divested its Denison Hydraulics business in 1994, the Indian company
decided to part ways and since then it has been on its own without any relationship with its erstwhile collaborators. The
company was renamed as Veljan Denison Ltd in 2010.
Industry Outlook: The rapid pace of industrialisation augurs well for this industry and this company in particular. The
demand for hydraulic components like valves, cylinders, accumulators, pumps, hydraulic hoses, filters and other
components is rising in fast growing markets like India. There are many established MNCs such as Kirloskar Pneumatics
Ltd, Yuken India, Dynamatics Technologies, etc. that function in India. But none of them manufacture the variety of
products that VDL manufactures under one roof.
Equity: VDL has a small equity capital of Rs.2.25 crore, of which 74.98% if held by the promoters and their allies. It is
interesting to note that from the balance 25.02% stake held by the investing public, Incentive Fastighet A. Bletter (IFAB -
a division of the Swedish major Hagglunds Dennison) holds 2,34,000 shares i.e. 13% stake, which leaves just about 12%
as floating stock. Notably, the public shareholding is limited to 2,554 shareholders and if the holdings of IFAB are
excluded, the average shareholding is limited to 128 shares per shareholder. As a result, the spread between the buy and
sell rates ranges to about Rs.20. The company’s equity capital is too small to attract institutional investors.
Working: For FY17, VDL posted revenues of Rs.8088.64
lakh v/s Rs.7897.42 lakh in FY16. PBT was higher at For the busy investor
Rs.1942.55 lakh v/s Rs.1783.93 lakh in FY16 and PAT Fresh One Up Trend Daily
was slightly higher at Rs.1265.84 lakh v/s Rs.1254.21 Fresh One Up Trend Daily is for investors/traders who are
lakh in FY16. The depreciation cost was higher YoY. The
keen to focus and gain from a single stock every
capital work-in-progress was also higher at Rs.295.14
trading day.
lakh v/s Rs.269.51 lakh in FY16 indicating that the
company has expansion plans. With just one daily recommendation selected from
Dividend: VDL has continuously increased its dividend stocks in an uptrend, you can now book profit the same
pay-out year after year. For FY17, it declared 100% day or carry over the trade if the target is not met. Our
dividend i.e. Rs.10/share. review over the next 4 days will provide new exit levels
Balance Sheet: With an equity capital of Rs.225 lakh while the stock is still in an uptrend.
and reserves of Rs.11249.32 lakh, VDL’s share book This low risk, high return product is available for online
value works out to Rs.510 as at FY17, which makes this subscription at Rs.2500 per month.
share a potential bonus candidate. Its current share
Contact us on 022-22616970 or email us at
price is just about 2.5x its book value, which seems very
moneytimes.suppport@gmail.com for a free trial.

A Time Communications Publication 12


lucrative considering the company’s business prospects.
The company is debt-free. It has not accepted any fixed deposits from the public. In fact, it holds huge cash and cash
equivalents of Rs.3970.3 lakh as at FY17 v/s Rs.1649.49 crore in FY16.
Management: The Veljan group consists of a dedicated and experienced team of professionals. It has an in-house R&D
team for product development, enhancement and expansion of its product range. Its sales office is situated at Oakwood,
USA.
Share price: This share may surprise investors and analysts by delivering multi bagger returns and its dream run may
start soon. The only hitch is that the stock is thinly traded and the volumes seldom cross 1,000/day. Only the early bird
will catch the worm. Investors who have the patience and who dare to invest can make a killing.
The share is currently hovering at Rs.1232. Considering its low liquidity, the management may decide to split the share
into a lower face value, apart from issuing bonus shares. These factors may also trigger its share price.
Conclusion: VDL posted an EPS of Rs.56.3 for FY17. At the CMP, its P/E works out to 21.78x. Its profitability has been
improving continuously over the last few years. There is every possibility that the company may grow at over 20% CAGR
over the next few years. Most of its peers command a P/E of around 100x. Hence, there is no ambiguity that this share
can become a multi-bagger in times to come.

STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta

Varun Beverages Ltd


(BSE Code: 540180) (CMP: Rs.512) (FV: Rs.10) (TGT: Rs.625+)
Varun Beverages Ltd (VBL) is engaged in the manufacture, sale, bottling and distribution of beverages of the ‘Pepsi’
brand. It produces and distributes a range of carbonated soft drinks (CSDs) as well as non-carbonated beverages (NCBs)
including packaged drinking water. It produces and sells the following PepsiCo CSD brands - Pepsi, Diet Pepsi, Seven-Up,
Mirinda Orange, Mirinda Lemon, Mountain Dew, Seven-Up Nimbooz Masala Soda, Seven-Up Revive and Evervess Soda.
Its PepsiCo NCB brands portfolio includes Tropicana Slice, Tropicana Frutz, Seven-Up Nimbooz as well as packaged
drinking water under the ‘Aquafina’ brand. In addition, it also franchises for the ‘Ole’ brand of PepsiCo products in Sri
Lanka. It operates 20+ production facilities across India and 5+ production facilities in its international licensed
territories. It franchises for various PepsiCo products across ~20 States and 2 Union Territories in India.
The domestic soft drinks market is pegged at Rs.52400 crore and is expected to post a healthy 17.5% CAGR over CY15-
20E. Despite the size, this category remains highly under-penetrated. Considering the low price-points at which the
products are retailed, the scope for a rise in consumption-frequencies is still significant, we believe, which would help
drive healthy volume growth in the years to come.
VBL would be a key beneficiary of this opportunity with the help of the access it has to PepsiCo’s brands and product
portfolio. The strength of its supply-chain and distribution network positions it well to leverage the innovation
capabilities of PepsiCo. The Company has driven healthy organic volume growth in the past and in our view, given the
strength of its portfolio and the opportunity, there remains a good possibility of high single-digit volume growth in
future as well.
VBL plans to enhance its share of PepsiCo’s domestic business through M&A opportunities. It currently accounts for
45% of PepsiCo’s volumes in the country.
VBL’s ROIC profile has been subdued (10% post-tax) leading to heightened concerns on the profitability potential of its
business model. Our analysis suggests that the depressed return-ratio is a result of sub-optimal utilisation of
consolidated capacities at present – a function of aggressive investments in capacity augmentation in recent times
(acquisitions contributed 31% to volumes in 2015). Our study of the economics of a representative soft drinks plant
reveals that business ROIC can be in excess of 20% once capacity utilisation gets closer to 80% level on a seasonality-
adjusted basis – typically a matter of 4-5 years since inception of a plant, in our view. Moreover, with aggressive capex
already incurred in the recent years, we expect future spends to be low in existing operations, which would drive strong
organic FCF (free cash flow) generation over the coming years. Potential M&A could, however, use up some of the cash
so generated, given the Company’s quest to get much more of PepsiCo’s territories within its fold.
On brand-ownership, we view VBL and PepsiCo’s partnership as one of equals where VBL’s contribution (including the
all-important last-mile activities) is as important as that of PepsiCo’s (product-innovations, branding).

A Time Communications Publication 13


Technical Outlook: The Varun Beverages Ltd stock looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It
is moving in a strong uptrend with ‘higher high and higher low’ on the daily chart. The stock trades above all important
DMA levels on the daily chart.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.512 and on dips to Rs.470 for medium-to-long-term investment and a possible
price target of Rs.625+ in the next 6 months.
******

Yes Bank
(BSE Code: 532648) (CMP:
Rs.1436.60) (FV: Rs.10)
(TGT: Rs.1650+)
Yes Bank is a private sector
bank engaged in providing
banking services including
corporate and institutional
banking, financial markets,
investment banking,
corporate finance, branch
banking, business and
transaction banking and
wealth management. It is
among the five largest
private sector banks in
India. Its segments include
Treasury,
Corporate/Wholesale
Banking, Retail Banking and
Other Banking Operations.
Its Treasury segment
includes investments and
financial markets activities
undertaken on behalf of its
customers, trading,
maintenance of reserve
requirements and resource
mobilization. Its
Corporate/Wholesale
Banking segment includes
lending, deposit taking and
other services offered to
corporate customers. Its
Retail Banking segment
includes lending, deposit
taking and other services
offered to retail customers
while the Other Banking
Operations segment
includes para banking
activities such as third party
product distribution and
merchant banking, among
others.
Yes Bank’s loan book has grown at 28% CAGR over the past five years. Corporate advances accounted for ~68% of its
total advances. However, incrementally, the Bank is focused on the retail segment and it aspires for a non-corporate

A Time Communications Publication 14


business mix of ~45% by 2020 supported by significant addition in branches, feet-on-the-street employees and also
introduction of a complete suite of products for the retail segment.
Net interest margin (NIM) has improved by over 80 bps over the past five years. There are further multiple levers for
expansion in NIM (20 bps in two years) from hereon including expansion in CASA (Current Account Savings Account)
deposits (40% by FY20E), lower SA costs, shift in focus to retail and business banking segments and the benefits from
the recent capital issuance.
Despite the recent spike in gross non-performing assets (GNPAs), they are still significantly lower compared to other
corporate asset-heavy banks. The management expects the Bank’s asset quality to remain relatively stable and the Bank
has been improving its portfolio with over 77% of its loans rated ‘A’ or above. A large part of its loan exposure towards
vulnerable sectors like power, construction, telecommunications and metals are rated ‘A’ and above. Also, the
management is confident of a chunky recovery from one account (Jaypee Cements), which accounts for 0.7% of its loan
exposure, in the next two quarters.
Investors earlier had only three options (HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank) for higher Return on
Assets (RoA) of ~1.8-2%. As a result, investors assigned a valuation premium to these banks. Yes Bank’s ROA has
improved continuously over the past couple of years and with the likely improvement in NIM, RoA is likely to further
expand and enter the elite club which was dominated so far by the three banks mentioned above.
Technical Outlook: The Yes Bank stock looks very good on the daily chart for medium-term investment. It is
consolidating after a strong rally and a close above Rs.1550 will lead the stock to rally. The stock trades above all
important DMA levels.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.1436.60 and on dips to Rs.1386 for medium-to-long-term investment and a
possible price target of Rs.1650+ in the next 12 months.

SMART PICKS

Nifty consolidating between 9560-9700


By Rohan Nalavade
The market is in a tight range with Nifty moving between 9570-9700 levels. The Nifty bounced twice last week from
9560 to 9700, which indicates that the market is trying to hold its weekly swing low of 9560 supported by the Bank
Nifty’s spot price, which is moving higher. Last week’s closing was above the previous week’s closing, which indicates a
positive bias overall. The market is waiting for a positive trigger that will lift the Nifty towards a new high as long as it
holds the 9500 level. The trend could reverse if the Nifty breaks the 9500 level on a closing basis. The June F&O
contracts expire this week and hence, volatility and a range breakout may be seen. If Bank Nifty holds 23500, it could
test 24100. Selling could be seen if it breaks 23490.
PM Narendra Modi has scheduled meetings in USA this week and positive outcomes are expected. While global markets
are active on Monday, 26 June 2017, the Indian markets will remain closed on account of Eid, leaving just 2 trading days
before the F&O expiry. With the implementation of GST on 1 July 2017, a good movement can be expected in the July
2017 series overall. We are in the middle of a bull run and the Nifty may touch 10200 by the year end. So, the overall
strategy remains to ‘buy on dips’.
Among stocks,
 Wipro looks good above Rs.257 for a sequential target of Rs.262-265-270 (SL: Rs.253).
 Tata Motors is a positional buy above Rs.444 for a sequential target of Rs.460-475 (SL: Rs.434).
 State Bank of India is a positional buy above Rs.287-289 for a sequential target of Rs.310-315-320 (SL: Rs.281).

MARKET REVIEW

Market closely watches GST roll-out


By Devendra A Singh
The Sensex advanced 81.81 points to settle at 31138.21 while the Nifty closed at 9574.95 falling 13.10 points for the
week ending Friday, 23 June 2017.

A Time Communications Publication 15


On the macro-economic data, India’s Forex reserves surged by $2.404 billion to reach a life-time high of $381.167 billion
in the week to 2 June 2017, on account of a rise in foreign currency assets.
The GST will be launched in the Central Hall of Parliament on the midnight of 30 June 2017. GST over the medium-to-
long-term is expected to lead to higher revenues for the Centre and the states while also enlarging the size of the
economy with a positive impact on the GDP. PM Narendra Modi has strongly favoured making the country self-reliant in
the defence and technology sectors. “We are moving forward with the dream of how to make India self-dependent in the
field of defence and security,” he said. Presently, India imports up to 65% of its defence requirements.
According to the RBI
Governor Urjit Patel, the ‘BEAT THE STREET 6’
soon-to-be implemented GST
will not only create a national A Performance Review
market but will also broaden
the tax base, which in turn Steady returns from the 16th edition of ‘Beat the Street 6’ published on 06/03/17
will lower the overall taxes in Scrip Name Recomm. Rate (Rs.) Highest since (Rs.) % Gain
the long-term. Ajmera Realty & Infra 190 251.9 33
Larsen & Toubro 1482 1799.15 21
Talking about Fintech, he said
Kalyani Steels 370 435 18
that ‘With the emergence of
Super Crop Safe 145 163.95 13
technology-enabled
Sarda Energy & Minerals 245 279 14
innovation in financial
IOL Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals 91 SL -
services, there will be both
opportunities and risks to
Bumper returns from the 15th edition of ‘Beat the Street 6’ published on 07/12/16
financial sector stability,
Scrip Name Recomm. Rate (Rs.) Highest since (Rs.) % Gain
which needs to be addressed
Datamatics Global Services 87 164.85 89
by policy makers, regulators Chennai Petroleum Corporation 265 424.8 60
and supervisors, as many Deep Industries 251 343.7 37
innovations have not been Adani Ports 272 361.6 33
tested through a full financial Alkem Laboratories 1695 2238 32
cycle”. India’s Fintech Power Grid Corporation 183 213.8 17
industry size has almost
trebled since 2013 and the
Steady returns from the 14th edition of ‘Beat the Street 6’ published on 06/09/16
value of transactions has
Scrip Name Recomm. Rate (Rs.) Highest since (Rs.) % Gain
touched $30 billion mark
PPAP Automotive 159 361 127
already.
Reliance Industries 1020 1465 44
In its latest Global Economic Indiabulls Housing Finance 833 1135 36
Outlook (GEO), Fitch said that Exide Industries 190 249.7 31
India’s GDP growth slowed NCC 88 103.75 18
significantly to 6.1% in the Mahindra & Mahindra 1490 SL -
first quarter of 2017 from 7%
in October-December. This The Indian stock market offers an excellent opportunity to grow your
was the slowest pace since investments. We are in the middle of a bull run and the recent correction gives
the fourth quarter of 2013-14. a good opportunity to enter or reshuffle your portfolio. Some companies have
“Domestic demand accounted posted fantastic Q4 numbers while some have continued their poor
for the bulk of the slowdown. performance. This is the right time to pick quality stocks before the next leg of
It appears that the cash the rally.
squeeze of November 2016 The next issue of ‘Beat the Street 6’ was published on 12 June 2017. We will
whereby the government select 6 strong stocks that will yield handsome returns in coming days.
pulled 86% of cash in So don’t wait, subscribe to ‘Beat the Street 6’ today.
circulation out of the Subscription Rate: 1 Qtr: Rs.2000, 2 Qtrs: Rs.3500, 3 Qtrs: Rs.5000, 4 Qtrs: Rs.6500.
economy virtually overnight For payment details, refer to the subscription form.
finally did have a material
impact on spending”, it said.
Stating that the lagged effect of demonetisation on the economy is quite puzzling, Fitch said this partly reflects the
challenges of measuring spending in an economy with a large informal sector.
Consumption growth fell substantially to 7.3% from 11.3% in the fourth quarter of 2015-16.

A Time Communications Publication 16


More worryingly, investment dipped into negative territory (-2.1%). This is partly reflected in the poor construction
activity, which fell by 3.7% - an unprecedentedly low level in the recent years which may have been affected by the
demonetisation shock.
Fitch said that investment as a share of GDP has been trending down for several years and the ongoing steep declines
could spell risks for the medium-to-long-term growth potential.
“We do, however, expect investment to gradually pick up from the current lows on the back of the transmission of
supportive monetary policy of the past two years and stepped-up structural reforms”, the rating agency said.
Fitch expects the GST to facilitate trade within India and reduce transaction costs. “Public spending on infrastructure is
set to rise, boosting investment. This should help drive a pick-up in GDP growth, which we forecast at 7.4-7.6% in the
next two fiscal years”, it said.
It feels that CPI inflation should also tick up as the current low food price effect will fade but would remain firmly within
the central bank’s target range.
Fitch said that the recovery in global growth is strengthening and is expected to pick up to 2.9% this year and peak to
3.1% in 2018 - the highest such rate since 2010.
The progress of the monsoon will be closely watched. The IMD said that the cumulative rainfall for the country as a
whole during this year's monsoon up to 22 June was 4% above the Long Period Average (LPA). The IMD in its second
stage forecast of southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall had said that quantitatively, monsoon seasonal rainfall for the
country as a whole is likely to be 98% of the LPA with an error of ± 4%.
Key index surged on Monday, 19 June 2017, on buying of stocks by traders. The Sensex gained 255.17 points (+0.82%)
to settle at 31311.57, a historic closing high.
Key index ended lower on Tuesday, 20 June 2017. The Sensex was down 14.04 points (-0.04%) to settle at 31297.53.
Key index fell on Wednesday, 21 June 2017, on modest selling of equities. The Sensex was down 13.89 points (-0.04%)
to close at 31283.64.
Key index was up on Thursday, 22 June 2017, on fresh buying. The Sensex was up 7.10 points (+0.02%) to close at
31290.74.
Key index was down on Friday, 23 June 2017, on global worries. The Sensex dipped 152.53 points (-0.49%) to settle at
31138.21.
National and global macro-economic figures will surely dictate global markets movements and influence investor
sentiment in the near future.
The GST implementation will be closely watched by the investors. All the States and Union Territories (having
assemblies), except Jammu & Kashmir, have approved the State Goods and Services Tax (SGST) Act. Almost the entire
country including all the 30 States/UTs are now on board and ready for the roll-out of GST. The government expects GST
to revolutionise India’s taxing system and is being marketed as one nation one tax.
On USA’s front, the US GDP growth rate is scheduled to be released on Thursday, 29 June 2017.

EXPERT EYE
By Vihari

VTM Ltd: Low equity, High EPS


(BSE Code: 532893) (CMP: Rs.32) (FV: Re.1)
VTM Ltd (VTML) was incorporated as Virudhunagar Textile Mills in 1947 and was promoted by K. T. Chettiar. Its plant is
located in Virudhunagar in Tamil Nadu. It has installed 289 looms to manufacture a range of grey fabrics from 90-330
cm width. Some of the varieties produced by the Company include cambric, voile, poplin, pin point oxford, satin,
chambray, drill, oxford weave, grey sheeting, etc. The mill is well connected by rail and road and is centrally located for
yarn manufacturers, which gives the Company the benefit of a relentless supply of raw material for its process. Exports
constitute 20% of sales.
VTML has one subsidiary - Colour Yarn Ltd. Its factory at Sulakarai in Virudhunagar is ISO certified for Quality
Management Systems Standards. It owns two Wind Turbines of 2.1 MW capacity each, which were established by
Suzlon. The mill is equipped with state-of-the-art machineries like 60 air-jet weaving machines, 174 Lakshmi Ruti C
looms of various widths, etc.

A Time Communications Publication 17


For FY17, VTML’s net profit soared 81% to Rs.16.8 crore (excluding one-time write off of Rs.6.8 crore) on 4% lower
sales of Rs.148 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.4.2. Other income was Rs.15.7 crore v/s Rs.5 crore in FY16. A dividend of 75%
was declared. During Q4FY17, it posted net profit of Rs.6.5 crore (excluding the one-time write off) on 6% higher sales of
Rs.44 crore.
With equity capital of Rs.4 crore and reserves of Rs.131 crore,
its share book value works out to Rs.33.8. The promoters
hold 75% of the equity capital, which leaves 25% stake with Profitrak Weekly
the public. Its gross block is Rs.179 crore as at FY17. Current A complete guide for Trading and Investments based
investments in mutual funds are Rs.49 crore while cash and on Technicals
loans given are Rs.7 crore. Debts are Rs.13 crore. Thus, the
financial position of the Company is sound. What you Get?
1) Weekly Market Outlook of -
To become more competitive in both international and
 Sensex
domestic markets, VTML continues to spend on  Nifty
modernisation of its plant and machinery under TUFS  Bank Nifty
(Technology Upgradation Fund Scheme). For this purpose, it 2) Sectoral View of Strong/Weak/Market Perfomer
had taken a term loan of Rs.6 crore from SBI in FY15. It indices
received TUFS subsidy of Rs.1.25 crore for this loan. Working 3) Weekly Trading Signals
capital loan to the Company is zero and it is virtually debt- 4) Stock Views and Updates every week
free. A small amount of finance cost was paid to the banks. 5) Winners for trading and investing for medium-
India is the second largest producer of textiles and garments to-long term till March 2018
in the world. According to a report by Technopak Advisors, 6) Winners of 2017 with fresh Weekly Signals on
the $108 bn Indian textile and apparel industry is expected to the same
grow to $223 bn by 2021. This industry accounts for almost
24% of the world’s spindle capacity and 8% of global rotor Application of this product can be explained on the
capacity. Abundant availability of raw materials such as Telephone or via Skype or Team Viewer.
cotton, wool, silk and jute as well as skilled workforce have
For 1 full year with interaction,
made India a sourcing hub.
rush and subscribe to Profitrak Weekly
The textile industry has made a major contribution to the
national economy in terms of direct and indirect employment Subscription Rate: 1 month: Rs.2500; 1 year: Rs.12000
generation and net foreign exchange earnings. The sector
contributes 27% to the country’s foreign exchange inflows. For more details, contact Money Times on
Thus, growth and all round development of this industry has 022-22616970/4805 or
a direct bearing on the improvement of India’s economy. moneytimes.support@gmail.com.
Despite some challenges, the cotton yarn industry witnessed
production and export growth of ~10% and ~32% respectively.
India’s share in the global textile market is just 4.5% v/s China’s 33%. China’s focus on other sectors will have a great
potential for Indian textiles. The global textile and apparel market of $510 bn in 2009 is expected to grow at 6.3% CAGR
to touch $1 tn in 2020.
VTML’s small equity capital of Rs.4 crore and cash surplus position coupled with strong fundamentals makes it a
potential bonus candidate. In 1995, it had issued a 5:1 bonus.
VTML is likely to post an EPS of Rs.5.5 in FY18. At the CMP of Rs.32, the stock trades at a forward P/E of just 5.8x, which
makes it the cheapest stock in the textile space. A reasonable P/E of 10x will take its share price to Rs.55 in the medium-
to-long-term. The stock’s 52-week high/low is Rs.40/26.55.

STOCK HUNT

Sumeet Industries Ltd: Emerging stock


(BSE Code: 514211) (CMP: Rs.31.20) (FV: Rs.10)
By Hunter
Surat-based Sumeet Industries Ltd (SIL) manufactures and exports polyester filament yarn. It offers products such as
polyester chips, polyester yarn and polypropylene yarn. It offers polyester yarn for weaving and knitting applications;
polypropylene yarn such as dope dyed polypropylene yarn; polypropylene partially oriented yarn (POY), polypropylene

A Time Communications Publication 18


high elongation yarn, polypropylene textured/crimp yarn and polypropylene twisted yarn. It offers polypropylene yarn
for applications in home furnishing, socks, knitted fabrics, sportswear, elastic tapes, laces, ribbons, filter fabric, luggage
fabric, car upholstery and others. It also offers texturized yarn and carpet yarn. Its products are marketed under the
‘SUMILON’ brand. It exports POY to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Syria, South Africa, Nepal and Bangladesh and polypropylene
yarn to South Africa, Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Spain. It operates a subsidiary - Sumeet Global Pte. Ltd.
Shankarlal Somani and family members hold majority stake in the Company (43.28%) without any pledged shares.
Financials: It has an equity capital of Rs.58.04 crore supported by reserves of Rs.229.38 crore as at 31 March 2017. Its
trade payables were Rs.113.21 crore while trade receivables were Rs.234.7 crore. Total Loans were Rs.444.24 crore v/s
Rs.462.26 crore in FY16, which is a positive sign as it reflects the management’s focus on reducing debt. Cash & Bank
balance was Rs.46.47 crore.
Performance: For FY17, SIL’s sales grew 14% to Rs.1405.75 crore from Rs.1235.4 crore in FY16 with 107% higher net
profit of Rs.39.08 crore v/s Rs.18.92 crore in FY16. It notched an EPS of Rs.6.73 (up 106% YoY).
For FY18, we expect the Company to achieve a turnover of Rs.1545 crore with net profit of Rs.50 crore on a very
conservative basis. Based on these estimates, the EPS works out to Rs.8 for FY18. Thus, the stock is highly undervalued
trading at a P/E of just 4x on FY18E EPS of Rs.8.
Conclusion: A conservative P/E of 10x (industry P/E is 6.64x and is expected to rise to 15x in the next 1-2 years) will
take its share price to Rs.80 on FY18E EPS of Rs.8, which is over 100% appreciation from the current level. The
risk/reward ratio is favourable as there is little no downside risk at this level but high upside potential due to good
safety margin (share book value is Rs.49.55 while price:book value is just 0.65x). Accumulate and hold for at least one
year.

PRESS RELEASE

AU Small Finance Bank IPO opens on 28th June


AU Small Finance Bank Ltd (AU) proposes to raise up to Rs.1912 crore through its IPO in the price band of Rs.355-358
per share. The IPO comprises an offer for sale (OFS) of up to 53,422,169 equity shares of Rs.10 each. The IPO opens on
Wednesday, 28 June and closes on Friday, 30 June 2017.
AU is a small finance bank (SFB) that recently transitioned from a retail focused non-banking finance company (NBFC).
It received a license from the RBI to set up a SFB on 20 December 2016, where-after it commenced SFB operations w.e.f.
19 April 2017. Its revenue from operations has grown to Rs.14305 mn in FY17 from Rs.4131 mn in FY13 while net profit
has grown to Rs.8427 mn from Rs.694 mn over the same period.

STOCK BUZZ

Indsil Hydro Power & Manganese Ltd: A potential multibagger!


(BSE Code: 522165) (CMP: Rs.65.95) (FV: Rs.10)
By Subramanian Mahadevan
Coimbatore-based Indsil Hydro Power and Manganese Ltd (Indsil), a part of the Indsil group of companies,
manufactures alloys used in the stainless steel industry. It offers various products such as ferro chrome, low carbon
silico manganese, ultra-low carbon silico manganese and ferro silicon. It runs a 75,000 TPA ferro chrome smelter in the
Sultanate of Oman along with captive chrome mine resources. Its capacity for low carbon silico manganese stands at
45,000 TPA across 3 smelters in India.
The group runs two captive power plants - a 21 MW hydro power plant at Rajakkad in Kerala and a 12 MW coal fired
plant at Raipur in Chhattisgarh. The captive power generation facilities at both these units make their respective
smelters one of the most cost competitive units globally. This in turn has helped the group position itself as a key low
cost, high quality supplier in the global low carbon silico manganese industry.
Based on a recent corporate development, Indsil has merged its unlisted group company - Indsil Energy and
Electrochemicals Pvt Ltd, which is 1.3x bigger, with itself effective April 2017. We believe that the rationale behind the
merger is to consolidate both the businesses to create long-term value for its shareholders by unlocking value, bringing
in a thermal power base to minimize the risk of dependence on monsoon for its hydro power plant, strengthening of its
financial position and increased leverage capacity of the merged entity. This merger was long due and the investor

A Time Communications Publication 19


community may not be aware of this development due to the low profile of the promoters and other issues like highly in-
debted domestic steel manufacturers, subdued demand, steel dumping, lenders initiating bankruptcy proceedings, etc.
Indsil’s fortunes are linked to the performance of the steel industry. The Company has posted revenues of Rs.160-215
crore on an average with meagre profits in the last seven years. However, it has consistently paid dividends and had also
issued a bonus in the past. Post this merger, it may clock a turnover of over Rs.400 crore with PAT of over Rs.27 crore in
FY18.
Indsil may soon change its name to Indsil Energy and
Manganese Ltd to reflect both captive hydro and thermal Free 2-day trial of Live Market Intra-day Calls
power assets. It may also get listed on the NSE. The A running commentary of intra-day trading
Company has a reliable management and has a proven recommendations with buy/sell levels, targets, stop loss
track record of posting consistent profits overcoming on your mobile every trading day of the moth along with
recessions multiple times due to the nature of its business pre-market notes via email for Rs.4000 per month.
when rivals like Rohit Ferro Tech and Ankit Metals and Contact Money Times on 022-22616970 or
Power literally went belly up. Keep an eye on this counter moneytimes.support@gmail.com to register for a free trial.
and accumulate on every decline for solid gains. Although
the counter is highly illiquid, it has the potential to
provide multibagger returns over a period of 2-4 years.

TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
REVIEW
Indo Amines Ltd  Munjal Auto Industries recommended at
(BSE Code: 524648) (CMP: Rs.77.20) (FV: Rs.10) Rs.97 on 20 February 2017, zoomed to
Incorporated in 1979, Thane-based Indo Amines Ltd (IAL) manufactures, Rs.140 last week fetching 44% returns!
develops and supplies fine chemicals, speciality chemicals, performance  Eon Electric recommended at Rs.59.25
chemicals, perfumery chemicals and active pharmaceuticals ingredients on 19 December 2016, zoomed to
(APIs) worldwide. Its fine chemicals comprise aliphatic and aromatic Rs.95.30 last week fetching 61% returns!
amines, aliphatic and aromatic nitriles, halides, alcohols, cyclohexanols,
cyclohexanones, acids and esters, intermediates and other products. Its  DHP India recommended at Rs.138.60 on
speciality chemicals include fatty acids, amides, amines, di-amines, 19 September 2016, zoomed to Rs.509
tertiary amines, polyamines, amine ethoxylates and ammonium quats. Its last week fetching 267% returns!
performance chemicals comprise anti-caking, anti-foaming, anti-static,  Ganesha Ecosphere recommended at
anti-stripping, anti-bacterial/anti-slime and floatation agents as well as Rs.198.70 on 29 August 2016, zoomed to
granulating aids, defoamers, curing aids, bitumen emulsifiers, corrosion Rs.379 last week fetching 91% returns!
inhibitors, demulsifiers and anti-bacterial products. Its products are used
in various industries such as pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals, fertilizers, petrochemicals, road construction, pesticides,
perfumery chemicals, dyes and intermediates, etc.
IAL has four manufacturing sites located at Baroda, Dombivli, Rabale and Dhule. It has an equity capital of Rs.32.92
crore. The promoters hold 73.85% of the equity capital, which leaves 26.15% stake with the investing public.
For FY17, AIL’s net profit soared 59% to Rs.14.56 crore from Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
Rs.9.13 crore in FY16 on 13% higher sales of Rs.287.50 crore Particulars Standalone Consolidated
fetching an EPS of Rs.4.42. During Q4FY17, its net profit soared Q4FY17 Q4FY16 FY17 FY16
53% to Rs.3.98 crore from Rs.2.60 crore in Q4FY16 on higher sales Sales 79.91 67.22 287.50 253.38
of Rs.79.91 crore as against Rs.67.22 crore in Q4FY16. PAT has PBT 5.71 4.82 22.12 14.71
grown at 40% CAGR from Rs.5.25 crore in FY15 to Rs.14.56 crore
Tax 1.73 2.21 7.57 5.59
in FY17.
PAT 3.98 2.60 14.56 9.13
It declared 10% dividend for FY17. EPS (in Rs.) 1.21 0.79 4.42 2.77
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of just 18.47x. Investors can
buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.68. On the upper side, it could zoom to Rs.96-100 in the short-term and further to
Rs.125 in the medium-term.
*******

A Time Communications Publication 20


P G Foils Ltd
(BSE Code: 526747) (CMP: Rs.123.60) (FV: Rs.10)
Incorporated in 1979, Pali-based P G Foils Ltd (PGFL) manufactures and sells aluminum foil in various forms. It offers
plain and printed aluminum foils, foil laminates and flexible packaging materials for various uses in the packaging
industry. It exports to Bangladesh, Iran, Kenya, Mexico, Nepal, Nigeria, Russia, Sudan, Thailand and the UAE. Its marquee
clients include Glaxo, Bayer, Nestle, Abbott, Amul, Aurobindo, Aventis, Cadbury, Cadila, Cipla, Bosch, Intas, Piramal
Healthcare, Natco, Sun Pharma, Zydus, Vadilal, Unilever, Lupin, Sanofi, Ajanta Pharma, P&G, Novartis, Mother Dairy, etc.
With an equity capital of Rs.8.11 crore and reserves of Rs.114.68 crore, PGFL’s share book value works out to Rs.130.4
and its P/BV ratio stands at just 0.96x. The promoters hold 57.76% of the equity capital, which leaves 42.24% stake with
the investing public.
PGFL posted fabulous numbers for Q4FY17 as well as FY17. For Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
FY17, its net profit soared 94% to Rs.17.61 crore on 13% higher Particulars Q4FY17 Q4FY16 FY17 FY16
sales of Rs.237.65 crore fetching an EPS of Rs.21.72. In FY16, its net Sales 61.42 53.03 237.65 211.22
profit was Rs.9.08 crore including an extraordinary profit of Rs.10 PBT 5.83 -4.12 24.01 4.08
crore. For Q4FY17, it posted a profit of Rs.3.13 crore against a loss Tax 2.70 1.70 6.40 5
of Rs.5.82 crore in Q4FY16 on 16% higher sales of Rs.61.42 crore
PAT 3.13 -5.82 17.61 9.08
fetching an EPS of Rs.3.86. It paid 11% dividend for FY17.
EPS (in Rs.) 3.86 -0.72 21.72 11.19
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of just 5.84x. Its main rival Ess
Dee Aluminium whose share price had touched Rs.840 in the past is now bankrupt because of which PGFL has
benefitted significantly. At the CMP, the stock looks attractive and highly undervalued. Investors can buy this stock with
a stop loss of Rs.100. On the upper side, it could zoom to Rs.150-155 in the short-term and further to Rs.200 in the
medium-term.

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Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to
be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any liability for the use of
this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are
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A Time Communications Publication 21


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A Time Communications Publication 22

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