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T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVI No.34 Monday, 26 June – 2 July 2017 Pgs.22 Rs.18
BAZAR.COM
TRADING ON TECHNICALS
Weekly Up
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Weak Demand Demand Supply Supply
below point point point point
ADITYA BIRLA NUVO 1742.00 1662.0 1677.7 1726.3 1790.7 1903.7 63.1 1701.3 02-06-17
LAKSHMI VILAS 200.15 192.5 193.3 199.3 206.2 219.0 68.3 195.5 19-05-17
EVEREADY INDUSTRIES 349.95 336.2 338.3 347.9 359.6 380.9 67.1 332.9 09-06-17
RELIANCE INDUSTRIES 1435.00 1391.0 1402.7 1423.3 1455.7 1508.7 66.1 1371.0 09-06-17
ICICI BANK 291.50 284.5 285.5 290.5 296.4 307.3 64.1 290.2 23-06-17
*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend.
Close below averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility
(Up/Down) within Down Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative
Strength (RS) is statistical indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.
Weekly Down
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
COAL INDIA 245.40 227.0 240.3 248.5 253.6 256.7 24.93 257.81 10-03-17
IDBI (IND.DEV.BANK O) 56.20 48.2 53.7 56.6 59.1 59.5 26.03 58.94 19-05-17
ONGC (OIL&NAT.GAS CO) 158.00 140.6 153.5 161.8 166.3 170.2 26.66 166.97 19-05-17
OIL INDIA 275.35 247.1 268.2 282.2 289.4 296.3 27.36 289.81 21-04-17
LUPIN 1061.00 951.0 1033.0 1087.0 1115.0 1141.0 28.91 1129.50 26-05-17
*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend.
Close below averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility
(Up/Down) within Down Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.
! Note: Momentum breakout trend of stocks value (volume*close) between 10-80 lakhs.
BUY LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Demand point Demand point Demand Point Weak below Supply Point Monthly RS
PUNTER PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a
possible time frame of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above, RS- Strength
TOWER TALK
Accelya Kale Solutions, a focused I.T. company in the Aviation sector, is virtually a monopolistic business. The
growing airlines traffic and falling crude prices augurs well for this company. An excellent long-term buy.
Better cash management and the rising NIMs are likely to boost the earnings of DCB Bank, which is one of the
fastest growing mid-cap banks.
Meghmani Organics is likely to benefit from a good monsoon. Its caustic chloride plant is contributing to its
growing exports to Latin America. A good long-term buy.
Asian Granito India with its strong pan India distribution network is expected to gain significantly from the
booming affordable housing segment.
The packaging industry is set to bloom. It may be prudent to buy Uflex and Cosmo Films.
Hindalco Industries is likely to post improved earnings in FY18 on the back of dwindling interest cost on the back
of its continued repayment of debts, swapping to lower cost funds and slow rising in price of aluminium. This share
must be added to one’s portfolio.
BEST BET
Lupin Ltd
(BSE Code: 500257) (CMP: Rs.1060.85) (FV: Rs.2)
By Bikshapathi Thota
Mumbai-based Lupin Ltd is an innovation led transnational pharmaceutical company that produces a wide range of
quality, affordable generic and branded formulations and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs). Its R&D endeavors
have resulted in significant progress in its NCE (new chemical entity) program. Its foray into Advanced Drug Delivery
Systems (ADDS) has resulted in the development of platform technologies that are being used to develop value-added
generic pharmaceuticals. Its world-class manufacturing facilities across India and Japan are benchmarked to
international standards and are approved by international regulatory agencies like USFDA, UK MHRA, Japan's MHLW,
TGA Australia, WHO and the MCC South Africa. Its drugs and products reach 100+ countries in the world.
Lupin is the 5th largest and amongst the top 10 fastest growing generic players in USA (5.6% market share by
prescriptions, IMS Health, September 2015) and the 2nd largest Indian pharmaceutical company by market
capitalization. It is also the 9th largest generic pharmaceutical player in Japan and the 4th largest generic pharmaceutical
company in South Africa (IMS Health, March 2016). For FY17, its consolidated turnover and PAT grew Rs.17494 crore
and Rs.2563 crore respectively.
Lupin is a fully integrated pharmaceutical company with an unrivaled position in USA, India and Japan backed by
cutting-edge research, world-class manufacturing facilities and a global supply chain. Its future looks bright with its
Q3FY17 results beating expectations with revenue growth of 26% YoY, driven mostly by higher sales in USA. Growing
product launches and market share in generic Glumetza, a diabetes drug, helped it achieve 57% YoY revenue growth in
USA. Improvement in gross margins due to improved product mix and forex gains helped it to report higher EBITDA.
After acquiring US-based Gavis Pharma in 2015, Lupin’s ANDA (abbreviated
Financials: (Rs. in crore)
new drug applications) pipeline in USA is strong. It plans to launch several
new drugs to boost sales in USA, which account for 43% of turnover. It Particulars FY16 FY17 FY18P
launched Generic Paxil CR tablets, Generic Pristiq tablets, Generic Temovate Sales 14208 17494 19246
Clobetasol Propionate scalp application, etc. in March 2017. It also received Expenditure 10918 14066 15417
USFDA’s approval for its Generic Suprep Bowel Prep Kit. PBDT 3896 4447 5216
Lupin’s efforts in expanding operations to other geographies are now reaping Net Profit 2279 2563 2766
benefits. Its Q3FY17 revenue from Europe and Japan grew 25% and 20% EPS (Rs.) 50.5 56.5 61.1
respectively. In addition to sales growth, favourable currency movement also
supported the overall growth.
Lupin’s domestic market growth was muted at 14%, primarily because of the impact of demonetisation. Although this
impact has stabilised now, analysts worry that the implementation of GST will impact revenue growth in the short-term.
So, the expected 18-20% improvement in domestic revenue growth will happen only in the medium-term.
To maintain its competitive advantage, Lupin has increased its R&D expenses by 45% YoY with a focus on long-term
projects - respiratory and biosimilars research, for instance. Its R&D expense is placed at an elevated level of 12.9% of its
revenue. The Company exhibits a strong balance sheet and despite a small strain due to the Gavis acquisition, its net
debt is expected to come down to zero by FY17 end. The Company’s RoE is comfortable at ~23%.
GURU SPEAK
STOCK PICK
STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta
Yes Bank
(BSE Code: 532648) (CMP:
Rs.1436.60) (FV: Rs.10)
(TGT: Rs.1650+)
Yes Bank is a private sector
bank engaged in providing
banking services including
corporate and institutional
banking, financial markets,
investment banking,
corporate finance, branch
banking, business and
transaction banking and
wealth management. It is
among the five largest
private sector banks in
India. Its segments include
Treasury,
Corporate/Wholesale
Banking, Retail Banking and
Other Banking Operations.
Its Treasury segment
includes investments and
financial markets activities
undertaken on behalf of its
customers, trading,
maintenance of reserve
requirements and resource
mobilization. Its
Corporate/Wholesale
Banking segment includes
lending, deposit taking and
other services offered to
corporate customers. Its
Retail Banking segment
includes lending, deposit
taking and other services
offered to retail customers
while the Other Banking
Operations segment
includes para banking
activities such as third party
product distribution and
merchant banking, among
others.
Yes Bank’s loan book has grown at 28% CAGR over the past five years. Corporate advances accounted for ~68% of its
total advances. However, incrementally, the Bank is focused on the retail segment and it aspires for a non-corporate
SMART PICKS
MARKET REVIEW
EXPERT EYE
By Vihari
STOCK HUNT
PRESS RELEASE
STOCK BUZZ
TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
REVIEW
Indo Amines Ltd Munjal Auto Industries recommended at
(BSE Code: 524648) (CMP: Rs.77.20) (FV: Rs.10) Rs.97 on 20 February 2017, zoomed to
Incorporated in 1979, Thane-based Indo Amines Ltd (IAL) manufactures, Rs.140 last week fetching 44% returns!
develops and supplies fine chemicals, speciality chemicals, performance Eon Electric recommended at Rs.59.25
chemicals, perfumery chemicals and active pharmaceuticals ingredients on 19 December 2016, zoomed to
(APIs) worldwide. Its fine chemicals comprise aliphatic and aromatic Rs.95.30 last week fetching 61% returns!
amines, aliphatic and aromatic nitriles, halides, alcohols, cyclohexanols,
cyclohexanones, acids and esters, intermediates and other products. Its DHP India recommended at Rs.138.60 on
speciality chemicals include fatty acids, amides, amines, di-amines, 19 September 2016, zoomed to Rs.509
tertiary amines, polyamines, amine ethoxylates and ammonium quats. Its last week fetching 267% returns!
performance chemicals comprise anti-caking, anti-foaming, anti-static, Ganesha Ecosphere recommended at
anti-stripping, anti-bacterial/anti-slime and floatation agents as well as Rs.198.70 on 29 August 2016, zoomed to
granulating aids, defoamers, curing aids, bitumen emulsifiers, corrosion Rs.379 last week fetching 91% returns!
inhibitors, demulsifiers and anti-bacterial products. Its products are used
in various industries such as pharmaceuticals, agrochemicals, fertilizers, petrochemicals, road construction, pesticides,
perfumery chemicals, dyes and intermediates, etc.
IAL has four manufacturing sites located at Baroda, Dombivli, Rabale and Dhule. It has an equity capital of Rs.32.92
crore. The promoters hold 73.85% of the equity capital, which leaves 26.15% stake with the investing public.
For FY17, AIL’s net profit soared 59% to Rs.14.56 crore from Financial Performance: (Rs. in crore)
Rs.9.13 crore in FY16 on 13% higher sales of Rs.287.50 crore Particulars Standalone Consolidated
fetching an EPS of Rs.4.42. During Q4FY17, its net profit soared Q4FY17 Q4FY16 FY17 FY16
53% to Rs.3.98 crore from Rs.2.60 crore in Q4FY16 on higher sales Sales 79.91 67.22 287.50 253.38
of Rs.79.91 crore as against Rs.67.22 crore in Q4FY16. PAT has PBT 5.71 4.82 22.12 14.71
grown at 40% CAGR from Rs.5.25 crore in FY15 to Rs.14.56 crore
Tax 1.73 2.21 7.57 5.59
in FY17.
PAT 3.98 2.60 14.56 9.13
It declared 10% dividend for FY17. EPS (in Rs.) 1.21 0.79 4.42 2.77
Currently, the stock trades at a P/E of just 18.47x. Investors can
buy this stock with a stop loss of Rs.68. On the upper side, it could zoom to Rs.96-100 in the short-term and further to
Rs.125 in the medium-term.
*******
Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to
be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any liability for the use of
this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are
solely responsible for their actions. The author, his company or his acquaintances may/may not have positions in the above mentioned scrip.
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