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Morning Briefing

Strategies and Investment Ideas from CFRA

February 22, 2018

Futures Flat
• This morning, S&P 500 index futures are pointing to a mixed market opening when
OVERNIGHT UPDATES trading begins today.

• Wednesday, U.S. financial markets saw a decrease in equity indexes during the
Europe lower. Tokyo fell session on Wall Street. Stocks closed lower and the S&P 500 index finished the
1.07%. Hong Kong fell trading day at 2,701.33, declining 0.55 percent.
1.48%. Shanghai rose
2.17%. • CFRA is anticipating that HP Inc (HPQ 21 ****) will report earnings per share of
$0.42 for its fiscal first-quarter. The company reported earnings of $0.36 for last
year's first-quarter. Capital IQ Consensus is looking for earnings of $0.42 per
BONDS: 10-year notes at
share. We expect sales to increase by 4.4% in FY 18 (Oct.), after a 7.9% rise in FY
2.924%, 30-year bonds at
17. We think HPQ's PC and printer end-markets are seeing stable demand, with
growth aided by marketshare gains and focus on growth areas. We see improving
printer supplies revenue, which commands higher margins, and envision HPQ
FOREIGN EXCHANGE: gaining share in both ink and laser. We expect less pronounced PC declines over
Euro at $1.2289, Sterling at time, partly due to an aging infrastructure, marketshare gains and better
$1.3885, Dollar at 107.34 comparables.
• Integer Holdings Corp (ITGR 45 ****) is due to release fourth-quarter results, with
PRECIOUS METALS: Gold CFRA looking for per-share earnings of $0.77, vs. earnings of $0.25 per share for
at $1,325.10. the same quarter one year ago and Capital IQ Consensus estimates of $0.79.

• CFRA expects that for the first-quarter, The Toro Company (TTC 62 ***) will post
ENERGY: WTI crude at earnings per share of $0.43 vs. $0.41 for the same period last year. Capital IQ
$61.33, London Brent crude Consensus analysts are looking for $0.44 per share. We forecast revenue growth
at $65.10. between 4% and 5% in FY 18, driven by continued strength in the professional
segment and strong demand for recent product introductions, particularly in snow
and ice management. Demand for golf, sports field, and ground equipment remains
strong. International sales grew 5.6% in FY 17, and we anticipate continued growth
in that segment in FY 18. We see growth in both residential and nonresidential
construction helping demand for TTC's products over the next year.


(F 11 ***): Ford executive vice president and president of its North America
MarketScope Advisor operations, Raj Nair, has left the company due to undisclosed unacceptable
· Investment Research
behavior. While we believe the company has a deep enough management bench
· News & Commentary
to replace Mr. Nair with little disruption, the new leader will face the challenges of
· Insight & Analysis
an industry that will see rapid change in the medium- and long-term, while sales
· Tools & Screeners
volume contracts in the U.S. in 2018. Strategic initiatives for electrification, mobility
and autonomous vehicles are some of the items the new leader will need to
address once selected. /Efraim Levy
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Redistribution or reproduction is prohibited without written permission. Copyright ©2018 CFRA. This document is not intended to provide personal investment advice
@cfraresearch and it does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report.
Investors should seek independent financial advice regarding the suitability and/or appropriateness of making an investment or implementing the investment
strategies discussed in this document and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from
such investments, if any, may fluctuate and that the value of such investments may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than they originally
invested. Investors should seek advice concerning any impact this investment may have on their personal tax position from their own tax advisor. Please note the
publication date of this document. It may contain specific information that is no longer current and should not be used to make an investment decision. Unless
otherwise indicated, there is no intention to update this document.
Opinion Raised On Shares of Transocean Ltd


SELL: We raise our target by $2 to $10, an implied forward EV/EBITDA of 7.1X our '18
EBITDA estimate, in line with RIG's historical forward average. We narrow our '18 loss per
share estimate by $0.31 to $0.65, and initiate '19's estimate at a loss per share of $0.75. RIG
posts a Q4 loss per share of $0.24, vs. EPS of $0.63, $0.04 above consensus. While the
previously high day rate 'Transocean Leader' re-negotiation was disappointing, RIG has since
announced several new contract awards, lifting backlog, and notes in increase in offshore
activity by the super majors. /Paige Marcus


FROM HOLD: We keep our 12-month target price for Hochtief (HOT) at EUR165, reflecting a
2018 P/E of 22.3x, in line with its 3-year average forward P/E of 21.5x. We keep our 2018
normalized EPS forecast of EUR7.4 and introduce 2019 EPS of EUR8.0. HOT reported 2017
result that was ahead of expectation, with its operational EPS of EUR7.04 beating consensus
estimate of EUR6.82. Operational net profit (EUR452 million) up 25%, reflecting the strong
contribution from all of its division. There was also quality in the performance as FCF from
operations (EUR1.1 billion) rose 14% year-on-year, resulting in a strengthened balance sheet
(net cash up 80% to EUR1.3 billion). HOT also proposed to increase its dividend by 30% to
EUR3.38 per share. Its recent share price weakness, due to the scrutiny over its proposed
acquisition of Abertis, is overdone in our view. Hence, we move HOT to Buy as this is an

opportunity to buy into a stock with quality earnings and good growth prospects. /F. Ibrahim

Equity research is available on the Research Notes page on MarketScope Advisor at

Economic and Stock Market Outlooks

• Stock prices appear to be buoyed by upward adjustments to economic growth and EPS
estimates, despite an increase in inflationary expectations and interest rate assumptions.
FEBRUARY 22, 2018

Action Economics (AE) recently made upward revisions to its year-over-year Q4 Core CPI
FEBRUARY 22, 2018

growth rate to 2.0% from the 1.9% estimated earlier. In addition, expectations now call for the
yield on the 10-year note to average 3.00% by the final quarter of the year, versus AE’s
previous 2.85% year-end forecast and 2.45% level seen at the end of 2017. While the Fed is
still likely to raise rates three times this year, AE’s Q4 projection for the FRB U.S. dollar index
is a further erosion toward the 85.5 average by the end of the year versus the 88.9 terminal
reading at the end of 2017. However, the greatest revision came from S&P Capital IQ’s

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consensus estimate for the S&P 500’s 2018 EPS: $156 currently from $145 at the end of last

This is an excerpt of the story, for the rest please visit the Investment Strategy page on
MarketScope Advisor at

For advisors interested in subscription and pricing information to MarketScope Advisor,, or for retail investors interested in The Outlook,, please contact the sales team at 1(800) 220-0502 or
FEBRUARY 22, 2018

FEBRUARY 22, 2018

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analyst judgment, and the extent to which some types of data
Glossary is disclosed by companies.
Since January 1, 1987, CFRA Equity and Fund Research 12-Month Target Price
Services, and its predecessor S&P Capital IQ Equity Research The equity analyst's projection of the market price a given
has ranked a universe of U.S. common stocks, ADRs security will command 12 months hence, based on a
(American Depositary Receipts), and ADSs (American combination of intrinsic, relative, and private market
Depositary Shares) based on a given equity's potential for valuation metrics, including Fair Value.
future performance. Similarly, we have ranked Asian and
European equities since June 30, 2002. Under proprietary CFRA Equity Research
STARS (STock Appreciation Ranking System), equity CFRA Equity Research is produced and distributed by
analysts rank equities according to their individual forecast of Accounting Research & Analytics, LLC d/b/a CFRA ("CFRA
an equity's future total return potential versus the expected US"). Certain research is distributed by CFRA UK Limited
total return of a relevant benchmark (e.g., a regional index (together with CFRA US, "CFRA"). Certain research is
(S&P Asia 50 Index, S&P Europe 350® Index or S&P 500® produced by Standard & Poor's Malaysia Sdn. Bhd ("CFRA
Index)), based on a 12-month time horizon. STARS was Malaysia") under contract to CFRA US.
designed to meet the needs of investors looking to put their
investment decisions in perspective. Data used to assist in Abbreviations Used in Equity Research Reports
determining the STARS ranking may be the result of the CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
analyst's own models as well as internal proprietary models CAPEX - Capital Expenditures
resulting from dynamic data inputs. CY - Calendar Year
DCF - Discounted Cash Flow
S&P Global Market Intelligence's Quality Rank DDM - Dividend Discount Model
(also known as S&P Capital IQ Earnings & Dividend EBIT - Earnings Before Interest and Taxes
Rankings) - Growth and stability of earnings and dividends EBITDA - Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and
are deemed key elements in establishing S&P Global Market Amortization
Intelligence's earnings and dividend rankings for common EPS - Earnings Per Share
stocks, which are designed to capsulize the nature of this EV - Enterprise Value
record in a single symbol. It should be noted, however, that FCF - Free Cash Flow
the process also takes into consideration certain adjustments FFO - Funds From Operations
and modifications deemed desirable in establishing such FY - Fiscal Year
rankings. The final score for each stock is measured against a P/E - Price/Earnings
scoring matrix determined by analysis of the scores of a large P/NAV - Price to Net Asset Value PEG Ratio - P/E-to-
and representative sample of stocks. The range of scores in Growth Ratio PV - Present Value
the array of this sample has been aligned with the following R&D - Research & Development ROCE - Return on Capital

ladder of rankings: Employed ROE - Return on Equity


A+ Highest B Below Average ROI - Return on Investment

A High B- Lower ROIC - Return on Invested Capital
A- Above Average C Lowest ROA - Return on Assets
B+ Average D In Reorganization SG&A - Selling, General & Administrative Expenses
NR Not Ranked SOTP - Sum-of-The-Parts
WACC - Weighted Average Cost of Capital
EPS Estimates
CFRA’s earnings per share (EPS) estimates reflect analyst Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and
projections of future EPS from continuing operations, and American Depository Shares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid
generally exclude various items that are viewed as special, in the country of origin).
non-recurring, or extraordinary. Also, EPS estimates reflect
either forecasts of equity analysts; or, the consensus (average) Qualitative Risk Assessment
EPS estimate, which are independently compiled by S&P Reflects an equity analyst's view of a given company's
Global Market Intelligence, a data provider to CFRA. Among operational risk, or the risk of a firm's ability to continue as an
the items typically excluded from EPS estimates are asset sale ongoing concern. The Qualitative Risk Assessment is a
FEBRUARY 22, 2018

gains; impairment, restructuring or merger-related charges;

FEBRUARY 22, 2018

relative ranking to the U.S. STARS universe, and should be

legal and insurance settlements; in process research and reflective of risk factors related to a company's operations, as
development expenses; gains or losses on the extinguishment opposed to risk and volatility measures associated with share
of debt; the cumulative effect of accounting changes; and prices. For an ETF this reflects on a capitalization-weighted
earnings related to operations that have been classified by the basis, the average qualitative risk assessment assigned to
company as discontinued. The inclusion of some items, such holdings of the fund.
as stock option expense and recurring types of other charges,
may vary, and depend on such factors as industry practice,

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STARS Ranking system and definition:
★★★★★ 5-STARS (Strong Buy):
Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a
relevant benchmark, by a wide margin over the coming 12
months, with shares rising in price on an absolute basis.
★★★★★ 4-STARS (Buy):
Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a
relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, with shares
rising in price on an absolute basis.
★★★★★ 3-STARS (Hold):
Total return is expected to closely approximate the total
return of a relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months,
with shares generally rising in price on an absolute basis.
★★★★★ 2-STARS (Sell):
Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a
relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, and the share
price not anticipated to show a gain.
★★★★★ 1-STAR (Strong Sell):
Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a
relevant benchmark by a wide margin over the coming 12
months, with shares falling in price on an absolute basis.

Relevant benchmarks:
In North America, the relevant benchmark is the S&P 500
Index, in Europe and in Asia, the relevant benchmarks are
the S&P Europe 350 Index and the S&P Asia 50 Index,
FEBRUARY 22, 2018

FEBRUARY 22, 2018

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Stocks are ranked in accordance with the following ranking CFRA UK Limited, which is regulated by the Financial
methodologies: Conduct Authority (No. 775151), and in Malaysia by
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