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T I M E S
A TIME COMMUNICATIONS PUBLICATION
VOL XXVII No.9 Monday, 1 – 7 January 2018 Pgs.22 Rs.20
Market ends the year near historic Money Times to cost Rs.20 per week
highs From this issue, Money Times Weekly will be priced
at Rs.20 per copy and the subscription rates are
By Sanjay R. Bhatia revised as follows:
The overall market trend remained tepid last week with action 1 year: Rs.1000; 2 years: Rs.1900; 3 years: Rs.2700
mainly in small-cap and mid-cap stocks. The FIIs turned net
buyers in the cash and derivatives segment after a long time. The DIs, however, were seen booking profits and remained
net sellers during the week. The breadth of the market remained positive amidst high volumes indicating selling
pressure in mainline stocks. Crude oil prices rose on the back of an unexpected fall in US production as well as a fall in
commercial crude inventories, which in turned stoked buying support.
Technically, the prevailing positive technical conditions helped
the markets make fresh historic highs. The MACD, RSI and KST Believe it or not!
are all placed above their respective averages on the daily and
Nahar Capital & Financial Services
weekly charts. The Stochastic is placed above its average on the
recommended at Rs.153.95 in TF last week,
weekly chart. Moreover, the Nifty is placed above its 50-day
SMA, 100-day SMA and 200-day SMA. The Nifty’s 50-day SMA is
hit a high of Rs.227 fetching 47% returns in
placed above its 100-day and 200-day SMA, its 100-day SMA is just 1 week!
placed above its 200-day SMA indicating a ‘golden cross’ Avonmore Capital & Management
breakout. These positive technical conditions could lead to Services recommended at Rs.35.55 in EE
follow-up buying support. last week, hit a high of Rs.51.10 fetching
The prevailing negative technical conditions, however, still hold
44% returns in just 1 week!
good and are likely to weigh on the market sentiment at the Kamadgiri Fashion recommended at
higher levels. The Stochastic is placed below its average on the Rs.133.50 in TF last week, hit a high of
daily chart and in the overbought zone on the weekly chart, Rs.188 fetching 41% returns in just 1 week!
which could lead to regular bouts of profit-booking and selling Omax Autos recommended at Rs.85.80 in
pressure, especially at the higher levels. TT last week, hit a high of Rs.107.20
The -DI is placed above the +DI line and is already placed above fetching 25% returns in just 1 week!
the ADX line. Further, it is placed above the 25 level. But it has Veer Healthcare recommended at Rs.16.06
come off its recent highs, which indicates that the sellers are in TT last week, hit a high of Rs.19.98
covering shorts regularly. However, the ADX line continues to fetching 24% returns in just 1 week!
languish below 16, which indicates that the current trend lacks
strength and the markets are likely to remain volatile and (EE – Expert Eye; TF – Techno Funda; TT – Tower Talk)
choppy. This happens only in
The market sentiment remains cautiously positive ahead of the Money Times!
start of the New Year. The Nifty too has touched a fresh historic
high and closed the year around it, which augurs well for the
Now in its 27th Year
markets. It is important for follow-up buying support to
BAZAR.COM
TRADING ON TECHNICALS
Weekly Up
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Weak Demand Demand Supply Supply
below point point point point
VAKRANGEE 421 401 401.3 420.7 440.3 479.3 77.7 392.7 13-10-17
GRAPHITE INDIA 710 649 664.7 694.3 739.7 814.7 75 674.3 08-12-17
RADICO KHAITAN 293.35 277 281 289.3 301.7 322.3 74.8 282.4 22-12-17
PC JEWELLER 456.60 438 440.1 454.5 470.9 501.7 71.9 440.1 10-11-17
GVK POWER
INFRASTRUCTURE 18.55 17.4 17.5 18.4 19.4 21.3 71.6 16.9 15-12-17
*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen. Relative Strength (RS) is statistical
indicator. Weekly Reversal is the value of the average.
Weekly Down
Scrip Last Level Level Center Level Level Relative
Reversal Trend
Close 1 2 Point 3 4 Strength
Value Date
Demand Demand Supply Supply Strong
point point point point above
MULTI COMMODITY
EXCHANGE OF INDIA 912.80 843.3 894.7 928.1 946.2 961.5 36.59 952.06 22-12-17
CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA 72.60 67.4 71.2 73.7 75 76.1 41.17 75.65 17-11-17
GODFREY PHILLIPS INDIA 987 947.7 975.7 992.3 1003.7 1009 44.28 993.75 29-12-17
BOMBAY RAYON FASHIONS 124.55 97 117.7 131.5 138.4 145.3 44.71 176.59 22-12-17
COAL INDIA 263 247.4 258.6 265.4 269.8 272.3 45.65 266.20 22-12-17
*Note: Up and Down Trend are based of set of moving averages as reference point to define a trend. Close below
averages is defined as down trend. Close above averages is defined as up trend. Volatility (Up/Down) within Down
Trend can happen/ Volatility (Up/Down) within Up Trend can happen.
BUY LIST
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above
Scrip Last Close Demand point Demand point Demand Point Weak below Supply Point Monthly RS
JINDAL STEEL & POWER 204.95 188 182.23 176.45 157.75 237 74.83
HINDUSTAN COPPER 100.90 98.30 96.05 93.80 86.50 117.4 71.21
UNITED SPIRITS 3671 3489.27 3428.50 3367.73 3171 4004.3 68.34
STEEL AUTHORITY OF INDIA 92.15 86.46 84.22 81.99 74.75 105.4 67.95
PUNTER PICKS
Note: Positional trade and exit at stop loss or target whichever is earlier. Not an intra-day trade. A delivery based trade for a possible time frame
of 1-7 trading days. Exit at first target or above.
Note: SA-Strong Above, DP-Demand Point, SP- Supply Point, SA- Strong Above, RS- Strength
Weak RS-
Scrip BSE Code Last Close Demand Point Trigger Supply point Supply point
below Strength
LASA SUPERGENICS 540702 179.70 179.10 188.05 167.25 200.9 221.7 77.66
KAYA 539276 955.05 940.25 970.55 922.30 1000.4 1048.6 75.83
JOHNSON CONTROLS-HITACHI AIR
CONDITIONING INDIA 523398 2674 2604 2700 2466 2844.6 3078.6 66.95
GANESH ECOSPHERE 514167 417.15 413 424.30 398.85 440 465.5 62.23
GRINDWEL NORTON 506076 543.05 534.05 549.40 530 561.4 580.8 58.75
VARDHMAN TEXTILES 502986 1368 1323 1399 1314 1451.5 1536.5 51.53
CROMPTON GREAVES CONSUMER
ELECTRICALS 539876 275.60 270.10 278 263.50 287 301.5 50.13
TOWER TALK
Shrimp feed producer Waterbase is set for a big blast. Buy this stock immediately for excellent returns in the next
few days.
Hero Motocorp has hiked prices of its motorbike. A positive for the company.
Reliance Industries has partnered with e-commerce player Myntra to co-brand its denim collection under Mast &
Harbour. Another feather in its cap. Buy.
Tech Mahindra has acquired 22.14% stake in Comviva Technologies for Rs.227 crore. A safe bet.
The government plans to invest another Rs.20 lakh crore to modernise railways. Buy Titagarh Wagons.
Rising volumes at Wockhardt suggest that it is ready to breakout from its current range. Long-term investors will
gain.
Marathon Nextgen Realty is contemplating buying some assets of its group company on slump sale basis. The stock
can be bought on selective basis.
Kolte Patil Developers is raising Rs.600 crore through QIP placements for huge realty development work in Pune.
Buy.
Tiger Logistics (India) aims to double its turnover in the next two years. The management sounded sanguine while
speaking to the media recently. Accumulate.
Crude oil prices are soaring. It would be prudent to buy Selan Exploration Technology. The stock is rangebound
since it is currently in the T2T segment. Do not miss this golden opportunity.
Cineline India has entered into an uncharted territory. The stock is poised to make new highs. Buy immediately.
Necter Lifescience is slowly coming out of the conjunction zone. Its current working is better and rising volumes
suggest a breakout. A good buy.
BEST BET
Best Bet
HIL Ltd
(BSE Code: 509675) (CMP: Rs.1496.10) (FV: Rs.10)
By Amit Kumar Gupta
Incorporated in 1946, HIL Ltd (Hyderabad Industries Ltd) is the flagship company of the CK Birla group and a market
leader in the building products segment having led the cement industry for over five decades. It is a multi-product,
multi-location organization with a network of branches,
depots, stockists and personnel across India.
For the busy investor
HIL is a market leader in roofing and it derived ~70% of
its FY17 revenue from this segment. It sells fibre cement Fresh One Up Trend Daily
and steel roofing sheets. Aerocon, its building solutions Fresh One Up Trend Daily is for investors/traders who are
brand, offers AAC blocks, boards and panels, pipes and keen to focus and gain from a single stock every
fitting. AAC blocks offer effective and practical solutions trading day.
for current building regulations and are manufactured
using the latest technologies. Boards and panels are used With just one daily recommendation selected from
for building partitions, pre-fabricated structures and stocks in an uptrend, you can now book profit the same
mezzanine floors. It offers CPVC and UPVC pipes and day or carry over the trade if the target is not met. Our
fittings, which are more eco-friendly products. review over the next 4 days will provide new exit levels
HIL’s wide distribution network reduces its dependence while the stock is still in an uptrend.
on a few states. Fibre cement sheets are largely used in This low risk, high return product is available for online
the rural areas and hence, depend on the monsoon to a subscription at Rs.2500 per month.
great extent. HIL’s presence in multiple states diversifies
Contact us on 022-22616970 or email us at
this risk. It also reduces seasonality in sales since there
are two distinct seasons for rains in different parts of moneytimes.suppport@gmail.com for a free trial.
India.
The fibre cement roofing sheets segment is a cash cow for HIL. It launched ‘colored steel sheets’ in 2016, which reported
revenues of Rs.72 crore in FY17. We expect colored steel sheets to register a CAGR of 19% over FY17-FY20. The
management plans to launch a new product in FY18 in this segment to boost its profitability. It also plans to enhance
capacity in the pipes and fittings segment to 20,000 MT from 7,555 MT currently, which will lead to strong revenue
growth going forward. We expect the pipes and fittings segment to grow at 62% CAGR over FY17-FY20.
We expect AAC blocks, boards and panels businesses to grow at 12% Valuations:
and 38% respectively over FY17-20 as we expect increased
Particulars FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E
acceptance of these lower costing, faster to install products within
P/E 19.1 18.3 12.8 10.5
the builder community.
P/BV 0.9 1.6 1.4 1.5
We expect CAGR growth in revenues/EBITDA/PAT of
EV/Sales 0.6 1 0.8 0.7
12%/21%/22% over FY17-20. ROE and ROCE are expected to grow
EV/EBITDA 5.9 8.5 6 5.1
by 350 bps to 14.9% and by 480 bps to 18.3% respectively. The key
reason for margin expansion is growth prospects in the pipes and ROE (%) 11% 11% 15% 17%
fittings segment due to capacity expansion and higher contribution ROCE (%) 13% 17% 18% 24%
STOCK WATCH
By Amit Kumar Gupta
REVIEW:
JK Paper Ltd Godawari Power & Ispat recommended at
Rs.298.55 last week, hit a high of Rs.378.70
(BSE Code: 532162) (CMP: Rs.136.85) (FV: Rs.10) (TGT: Rs.180+) fetching 27% returns in just 1 week!
Incorporated in 1960, New Delhi based JK Paper Ltd (JKPL), formerly
Central Pulp Mills Ltd, manufactures and sells various types of papers. It offers a range of office documentation papers
such as photocopy and multi-purpose papers for use in desktop, inkjet and laser printers, fax machines, photocopiers
and multi-functional devices; and premium watermarked and laid-marked business stationery papers for corporate
customers and individuals. It also provides uncoated writing and printing (W&P) papers, MICR cheque papers and pulp
boards as well as bond, ledger and parchment grades; maplitho papers; coated papers and boards; coated packaging
boards for the packaging industry; and imported coated art papers. It exports to ~40 countries.
JKPL is the market leader in the branded copier paper segment and among the top two players in Coated Paper and high-
end Packaging Boards. According to Crisil, the demand for W&P paper is projected to grow at ~4-5% CAGR in the next
five years led by higher growth in both coated as well as uncoated paper. Consumption of W&P paper is closely linked to
population growth, literacy levels, increase in office printing and private and public spending on education.
Wood is the key raw material for W&P paper manufacturers. JKPL enjoys operating efficiencies because of its integrated
production capacities due to which a significant portion of woodpulp (pulp capacity of 276,000 TPA) and power
requirements (major cost components) are met through captive production. Further, for long-term continuous source of
raw materials (~52% of total raw material consumption), JKPL is running social forestry and farm forestry programmes
in Orissa, Gujarat, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh, covering a total area of 1,50,000 hectares.
In early FY15, JKPL had expanded its capacity from 290,000 TPA to 455,000 TPA, which led to 14.8% CAGR in net sales
between FY14-FY17, as it had achieved more than 100% capacity utilisation. We expect net sales to register a CAGR of
6.3% over FY15-20E. We expect EBITDA to register a CAGR of 18.5% over FY15-20E. Further, we expect PAT to improve
due to conversion of Foreign Currency Convertible Bonds (FCCBs) to equity and refinancing of project loan with long
tenure loan, which will lead to saving of finance cost of ~Rs.100 crore for FY18-FY20E. Going forward, we believe that
JKPL will reduce its debt to 0.3x over FY18E-20E.
Technical Outlook: The JKPL stock looks very good on
the daily chart for medium-term investment. It has formed Free 2-day trial of Live Market Intra-day Calls
a rounding bottom pattern on the daily chart and a A running commentary of intra-day trading
breakout with good volumes can push the stock to a recommendations with buy/sell levels, targets, stop loss
higher level. The stock trades above all important levels on your mobile every trading day of the moth along with
on the daily chart like the 200 DMA level. pre-market notes via email for Rs.4000 per month.
Start accumulating at this level of Rs.136.85 and on dips to Contact Money Times on 022-22616970 or
Rs.117 for medium-to-long-term investment and a moneytimes.support@gmail.com to register for a free trial.
possible price target of Rs.180+ in the next 6 months.
*******
STOCK ANALYSIS
Stock Analysis
STOCK BUZZ
M Sabnavis, Chief Economist at Care Ratings, said that the government is preparing the market for a fiscal slippage.
Though higher disinvestment accruals and dividend receipts from public sector units may act as mitigating factors this
year, fiscal deficit may still go up by 30 bps to 3.5% as a result of the Rs.50000 crore additional borrowing.
Aditi Nayar, principal economist at ICRA, said that the government’s proposal does not rule out a fiscal slippage in the
current financial year. A fiscal slippage, if any, may get funded through higher-than-budgeted small savings collections.
Separately, the government also cut the interest rate on small savings schemes such as Public Provident Fund, Kisan
Vikas Patra and Sukanya Samriddhi by 0.2 percentage point for the January-March quarter.
GST receipts are a cause for concern. Total GST collection including taxes on inter-state supplies and the cess on certain
items added up to Rs.80808 crore in December, a 14% drop from receipts in August.
The government has so far managed to raise about three-fourths of the targeted Rs.72000 crore through disinvestment.
Net direct tax receipts, however, grew 14.4% to Rs.4.8 tn in the April-November period from a year ago.
Foreign investment inflows to India rose ~$45 bn between April-October 2017 to 20% more than what it was in the
previous corresponding period with improved outlook on the Indian economy, which is undergoing structural reforms.
The rise in dollar inflows amid tightening of monetary policy across major markets including the US and UK is a positive
for India. There may still be a concern for regulators here as 40% of the inflows are short-term.
Fitch Ratings in its latest Global Economic Outlook has cut India’s GDP growth forecast for FY18 to 6.7% from the earlier
projection of 6.9% in September 2017, stating that the rebound in the economy was weaker than expected. It also cut
the forecast for FY19 to 7.3% from 7.4% earlier. The rating firm expects India’s GDP to pick up in the next two years
with the gradual implementation of the structural reform agendas.
“First, a two-year large bank recapitalisation plan (worth Rs.2.1 lakh crore or 1.4% of GDP) for state banks was
announced. The details are not clear yet but the package is likely to help address the capital shortages that have
hindered the banks’ lending capacity. Second, the government unveiled a substantial road construction plan (worth
Rs.6.9 lakh crore or 4.5% of GDP over a five-year horizon). This may encourage the investment growth outlook,” Fitch
added.
Fitch further said that the rupee has also appreciated quite sharply against the dollar since the beginning of this year
despite a narrowing interest rate differential between the US Fed policy rate and the RBI’s. These developments give
headroom for the RBI to keep interest rates quite low in order to help lift the economy.
On the US front, the House of Representatives on Wednesday, 20 December 2017, passed a historic tax bill which they
voted on for the second time due to a technical irregularity the day before. The bill includes a landmark decision with a
slash in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%.
On Asian front, the China's central bank raised interest rates on reverse repurchase agreements or reverse repos (RR)
used for open market operations by 5 bps for the 14-day tenor following upward adjustments on other tenors last week.
Indian markets remained closed on Monday, 25 December 2017, on account of Christmas.
Key index gained on Tuesday, 26 December 2017, on fresh buying. The Sensex was up 70.31 points (+0.21%) to close at
34010.61.
Key index fell on Wednesday, 27 December 2017, on profit-booking by traders. The Sensex was down 98.80 points (-
0.29%) to close at 33911.81.
EXPERT EYE
By Vihari
TECHNO FUNDA
By Nayan Patel
BULL’S EYE
Bull’s Eye
FUTURES WATCH
By Vinod Harlalka
Given below are the Top 10 Gainers & Losers in the Futures segment in the December 2017 expiry.
TOP 10 GAINERS
Nov. December 2017 Expiry Diff.
No Exp. Open High Low Close %
Scrip
. Closing
30-11-17 30-11-17 28-12-17
1 RCOM 12.60 12.90 34.00 10.65 30.95 145.63
2 RELCAPITAL 432.95 437.95 590.75 396.65 568.20 31.24
3 JPASSOCIAT 18.10 18.55 23.95 16.55 23.30 28.73
4 WOCKPHARMA 717.10 731.60 938.00 681.50 908.05 26.63
5 RELINFRA 440.35 442.50 572.45 428.10 555.20 26.08
6 BIOCON 431.20 445.15 549.20 439.20 540.90 25.44
7 RNAVAL 39.30 39.00 49.15 33.85 48.30 22.90
8 SAIL 76.80 79.35 93.40 75.10 92.70 20.70
9 JETAIRWAYS 678.60 686.50 832.30 629.15 816.10 20.26
10 NIFTYMID50 4575.00 5165.90 5490.00 5165.90 5490.00 20.00
TOP 10 LOSERS
Nov. Exp. December 2017 Expiry Diff.
No. Scrip Closing Open High Low Close %
30-11-17 30-11-17 28-12-17
1 BALRAMCHIN 159.15 162.00 163.15 129.30 131.05 -17.66
2 SYNDIBANK 92.85 94.05 94.85 78.60 78.80 -15.13
3 BANKINDIA 195.55 196.70 199.00 168.25 169.55 -13.30
4 UNIONBANK 164.75 164.45 165.60 141.20 145.95 -11.41
5 ANDHRABANK 62.75 62.95 63.65 57.25 58.95 -6.06
6 NBCC 262.75 266.20 269.10 238.45 247.45 -5.82
7 SOUTHBANK 32.80 33.15 33.45 29.50 30.90 -5.79
8 HDIL 62.65 63.50 63.75 48.65 59.10 -5.67
9 TORNTPOWER 285.75 286.40 287.50 250.05 271.30 -5.06
10 BEML 1667.70 1684.60 1699.75 1436.55 1585.40 -4.93
Disclaimer: Investment recommendations made in Money Times are for information purposes only and derived from sources that are deemed to
be reliable but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Money Times or the analyst/writer does not accept any liability for the use of
this column for the buying or selling of securities. Readers of this column who buy or sell securities based on the information in this column are
solely responsible for their actions. The author, his company or his acquaintances may/may not have positions in the above mentioned scrip.
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