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Syria 2.0
The idea that Syria’s civil war is winding down has
been repeated so often in recent months as to
become a cliche. It has never been entirely true.
U.S. officials recently confirmed
Washington’s intention to indefinitely retain
effective ownership of around 28 percent of Syrian
territory, in partnership with the Kurdish-led Syrian
Democratic Forces. But those plans are
increasingly in conflict with the other major
international players in the war-torn country. That
includes America’s erstwhile ally, Turkey, which
recently launched “Operation Olive Branch,” an
incursion into the Kurdish-held Afrin canton in
Syria’s northwest. Meanwhile, President Bashar
al-Assad’s regime is assaulting mainly Sunni Arab
rebels to the south, and completing its conquest
of the Abu Duhur airbase in the northern Idlib
Province.
All this bloodshed doesn’t just spoil Washington’s
plans — it also calls into question whether the
participants in the Syrian war are anywhere close,
to quote another cliche, to “bleeding themselves
out.” Even if the dynamics driving the overlapping
conflicts of Syria’s war are drawing to a close,
they aren’t generating a peaceful and orderly
future for long-suffering Syrians. Rather, new
conflicts are emerging fully formed from the
wombs of the old.
Since mid-2014, there have been two parallel wars
taking place on Syrian soil. The “original” war is
the fight between the Sunni Arab rebels and the
Bashar al-Assad regime, which is centered on the
more densely populated area of western
Syria. The second war is the contest between the
Islamic State and the U.S.-led global coalition
assembled against it.
Both these wars are indeed close to
conclusion. The former war was decided in
Assad’s favor on Sept. 30, 2015 — the day that
Russian aircraft appeared over the skies of Syria.
The rebellion, lacking any but the most
rudimentary anti-aircraft capacity, has found itself
helpless against the combination of Russian air
power and Iran-supported and supplied
manpower. The regime’s survival, therefore, is no
longer in doubt. But it is a different entity to the
one that launched the war against anti-Assad
protesters in the summer of 2011. Seven years
later, the regime in Damascus is no longer about
to dictate events in Syria as it once did, and
instead it must defer to the wishes of those
powers that ensured its survival.
The events of recent days in Afrin offer an
instructive example. Assad himself expressed his
adamant opposition to the Turkish incursion,
saying that “The brutal Turkish aggression on the
Syrian town of Afrin cannot be separated from the
Turkish regime’s policy from the first day of Syria’s
crisis, which was essentially built on supporting
terrorism and terrorist organizations.”
Faisal Mekdad, the regime’s deputy foreign
minister, told reporters in Damascus that Syria’s
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forces were “ready to destroy Turkish air targets
in the skies of the Syrian Arab Republic.” Buy, Always Consume
But Assad’s Russian patrons evidently took a Buy, buy more than you can
different view of the Turkish operation. Russian consume. Consume. Fuck over
military personnel in the Kurdish enclave were
withdrawn prior to the commencement of the any relationship.
Turkish operation. Turkish aircraft currently being Step on everything and always
used to bomb Kurdish positions in the Afrin region buy everything up. Carry home
could not have crossed the border without as much as you can.
Russian permission, given the presence of two
Stuff, stuff yourself with greed.
Russian S-400 air defense batteries guaranteeing
Don’t look anybody in
that Moscow can rid Syria’s skies of any
unwanted presence. Assad’s government was the eyes.
required by the actual decision-makers to tolerate Surround yourself with high walls
this situation — and true to form, it has not so neither grass nor human
followed through on its threat to shoot down voices can reach you;
Turkish jets.
sink, sink into the shit as deep
Similarly, recent events demonstrate the extent to as you can go.
which the rebellion is no longer essentially a You must be on your guard;
Syrian phenomenon. The rebels taking part in the
buy away, carry it home
Afrin operation against Kurdish forces are
effectively military contractors working on behalf always consume.
of Turkish interests. These northern rebel groups Look around, make sure
— such as Faylaq al-Sham, Nour al-Din al-Zenki, they’re not robbing you;
and the Levant Front — have played this trample
essentially subaltern, proxy role since the summer
any flower
of 2016, when it became clear there was no longer
any plant.
any possibility of a strategic rebel victory over
Assad. Buy, always buy
carry home
Rebel factions are mainly now fighting for survival.
Those based in Turkey or close to the border have more than you can carry ;
no option but to serve as proxies for Ankara’s consume, consume,
ambitions. (Even the al Qaeda-associated Hayat sink, sink into the shit,
Tahrir al-Sham group, which now dominates Idlib shit, shit shit.
province, has a curious relationship of “soft
Ferruccio Brugnaro
coordination” with Turkey made necessary by the Translated by Jack Hirschmann
group’s desire not to face Russian airpower.) The
rebels farther south play a similar role for their
Jordanian, American, or Israeli patrons.
is directly opposed to some of the jihadi rebel
The war against the Islamic State’s groups with whom Turkey cooperates.
pseudo-caliphate is also close to its end. The If President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s recent
organization has not been entirely destroyed — it statements suggesting a Turkish intent to attack
retains areas of control in the deserts of Deir Ezzor the city of Manbij are serious, this would set
and is still capable of sudden counterattacks — Ankara on a collision course with U.S. interests.
but it has lost the vast majority of its territory. It is The Kurds maintain relations with Russia and the
clear that the Islamic State is set to once again Assad regime, although their de facto autonomous
become a mobile, brutal Sunni Arab insurgent area is mainly guaranteed by the United States.
organization, similar to the form it took prior to the
Israel is aligned with the United States, but it relies
declaration of the caliphate in June 2014.
on its functioning relationship with Russia to
So what do these developments mean for the ensure its ability to act against regime and
likely direction of events in the next period in Iran-associated targets in southern Syria, which
Syria? are themselves aligned with Russia, and so on.
There are three main “players” in Syria today: the The new contests in Syria derive not from internal
regime-Iran-Russian bloc, which controls over half Syrian dynamics, but from the rival interests of
of the country’s territory and the majority of its outside powers pursued over the ruins of Syria:
population; the Kurdish-led and U.S.-backed Turks against Kurds, Israel against Iran and its
Syrian Democratic Forces, which controls the proxies, the United States against Iran, and now,
oil-rich area of southern Deir Ezzor and much of potentially, Ankara against Washington. These
the country’s best agricultural land; and the external forces are all determined to gain
alliance between Turkey (and to a smaller degree advantage over one another in Syria.
Qatar) and the Sunni Islamist and jihadi rebels of And so, even as Syria’s two longstanding conflicts
northwest Syria. But these broad “camps” are not wind down, war and strife are not departing the
closed structures: Different members maintain area.
their own relations with specific elements of the
rival camp. Thus, Turkey and the United States are Welcome to Syria 2.0.
ostensible NATO allies, though the United States Jonathan Spyer
foreignpolicy.com
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