Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
M ACKENZIE E AGLEN
AND
J ULIA P OLLAK
November 2012
A M E R I C A N E N T E R P R I S E I N S T I T U T E
Acknowledgments
ii
Executive Summary
iii
US Military Technological Supremacy under Threat
1
US MILITARY TECHNOLOGICAL SUPREMACY UNDER THREAT
development. This changed following the launch of under the administration’s proposed budget, domes-
Sputnik when public pressure for increased scientific tic agencies such as the Departments of Health and
funding prompted the expansion of R&D funding to Human Services and Energy will receive a larger
include testing and evaluation (T&E)—creating the share of R&D funding than the Department of
modern Research, Development, Test, and Evalua- Defense (DoD).4
tion (RDT&E) account in the defense budget. In contrast with American military R&D trends,
Because the new RDT&E category included many a study by the Battelle Memorial Institute forecasts
items beyond basic and applied research, increased that China’s rate of spending on R&D will remain
budgets made the overall R&D investment appear strong and continue to grow faster than 10 percent
larger. Today, less than one-tenth of RDT&E funds each year, as it has done consistently over the past
go to basic and applied research.1 15 years. At this rate, China’s R&D spending can be
In the coming years, US government research expected to match or surpass ours by 2023.5 Other
and development budgets are set to shrink further countries, including Russia and Israel, are also start-
amidst mounting fiscal pressures. The debt-ceiling ing to gain a technological edge in certain sectors.6
agreement reached by Congress last summer—the In a New York Times op-ed titled “Will China Out-
Budget Control Act of 2011—mandates $487 bil- smart the U.S.?,” Adam Davidson speculated on the
lion in defense spending cuts over the coming threat China’s rising investments in R&D could pose
decade.2 Another $492 billion in automatic budget to America’s economy:
cuts are also scheduled to take effect through the
sequestration measure, a result of the super commit- Our global competitiveness is based on being
tee’s failure to come up with $1.2 trillion in deficit the origin of the newest, best ideas. How will
reduction measures in November 2011. we fare if those ideas originate somewhere
These reductions come on top of numerous pro- else? The answers range from scary to scarier.
gram cuts and “efficiency” savings already imple- Imagine a global economy in which the U.S. is
mented throughout the Department of Defense or playing catch-up with China: while a small
banked as savings regardless of outcome. As many class of Americans would surely find a way to
defense experts have noted, so-called “across-the- profit, most workers would earn far less, and
board” reductions will affect R&D and procurement the chasm between classes could be wider
(together, what are commonly called the moderniza- than ever.7
tion accounts) disproportionately because other
parts of the defense budget are buried more deeply Not only are other countries outpacing the
across multiple accounts and organizations or more United States on research and development, but
politically sensitive and therefore more difficult to they are also thinking about the very idea of future
cut. Under President Obama’s proposed fiscal year investment differently. Nowhere is this more pro-
2013 budget, the defense RDT&E account would nounced than in simple accounting practices. In the
decline by nearly 5 percent to $69.65 billion.3 As United States, R&D spending is expensed, meaning
figure 1 illustrates, this represents a real (inflation- that money directed to R&D adds an immediate
adjusted) decline of more than 17 percent since the negative to a firm’s balance sheet and reduces prof-
start of the Obama administration, the fifth decline its.8 In Japan, on the other hand, R&D spending is
in real terms in as many years. The rest of the capitalized, meaning that its cost is spread out over
Obama administration’s five-year defense plan con- several years, reducing the incentive to cut invest-
tinues this trend. RDT&E spending will continue to ment as a short-term strategy to increase profits.9 In
decline by more than $8 billion in real terms other words, the Japanese accounting system is pre-
between FY 2013 and FY 2017. At the same time, disposed to value long-term success over short-term
2
MACKENZIE EAGLEN AND JULIA POLLAK
FIGURE 1
INFLATION-ADJUSTED US DEFENSE RDT&E SPENDING DECLINES FOR FIVE CONSECUTIVE YEARS
90,000
80,000
$ Millions
70,000
60,000
50,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: US Department of Defense, National Defense Budget Estimates for FY 2013, Historical Table 6.8.
gains, while its American counterpart does precisely How Federal Spending on Defense R&D
the opposite. This predisposition to think about Increases Economic Growth
R&D spending as a burden and not as a source of
strength only makes America’s challenge even Congress supports the modernization efforts of the
greater going forward. US military with appropriations for RDT&E and
Before Congress signs off on further defense procurement. Although they primarily support the
spending reductions, which senior Department of development and acquisition of the nation’s future
Defense leaders and military officials have warned military hardware, software, IT, and consumables,
would have devastating effects, members should these investments spill over into the wider economy
review the indispensable contributions US defense through three main channels: the development of
R&D and procurement spending have made human capital or research infrastructure, technology
historically—and continue to make—not only to transfers or commercial spinoffs, and foreign sales.
US national security, but also to technological inno-
vation and economic growth. With the right level Human Capital and Research Infrastructure.
and composition of defense R&D and procurement Roughly 17 percent of the total federal defense
spending, and the right policy framework, Con- RDT&E budget (nearly $12 billion in FY 2013) goes
gress can ensure that the military continues to pro- toward basic and applied research, referred to as the
vide the best defense, as well as the maximum Science and Technology (S&T) program. The pro-
incentive to technological advancement and eco- gram supports a large share of university-based
nomic growth. research and education, particularly in fields such as
3
US MILITARY TECHNOLOGICAL SUPREMACY UNDER THREAT
mathematics and materials engineering. This funds development. Each of these activities has yielded
the training of scientists and engineers and develops scientific knowledge, organizational innovations,
the future expertise that the DoD—as well as indus- and technologies first used in military products that
try and universities—rely upon. later found their way into civilian or commercial
Federal spending on defense R&D was originally applications in the private sector.
concentrated in government arsenals, but during Technology developed in the military can be
World War II, weapons production largely shifted to transferred to other parts of the government or to
private companies while basic research moved to the private sector in a number of different ways. One
universities. For instance, in 1980, at the height of way is through the patent system, which was
the Cold War, about 70 percent of federal R&D designed to promote the disclosure of inventions.
spending was located in industrial laboratories and Various organizations take advantage of technologi-
between 10 and 15 percent in universities.10 The cal knowledge embedded in military patents. A
human capital, research infrastructure, and indus- recent study, which sampled 582 military patents
trial base that have emerged as a result provide a from around the world registered between 1998 and
means of acquiring new technology across a wide 2003 with both US and European protection, found
range of sectors and growing further industrializa- that the United States makes the greatest use of mil-
tion and innovation. itary technology for civil purposes, followed by Ger-
Not only does defense-related spending fund the many.14 The study measured the dual use of military
training of scientists, but it also creates an incentive technology by analyzing citations of military patents
for young people to study science by providing in subsequent civilian patents. It notes, however,
lucrative employment opportunities. Overall, the that current intellectual property laws worldwide
defense and aerospace industry supports some 3.53 are in many ways “inadequate for favoring technol-
million American jobs.11 Defense-related science ogy transfer.”15
and engineering jobs attract some of the nation’s best Another way military technologies have often fil-
and brightest and pay commensurately high salaries, tered into commercial products is through the govern-
with the median annual salary above $77,000.12 ment’s use of defense contractors with both military
Defense-related jobs employ about one in ten of the and commercial divisions. US aerospace manufactur-
nation’s computer software and electrical engineers, ers, for example, have often been involved in military
one in five of its physicists, one in four of its and commercial aircraft production simultaneously,
astronomers and mathematicians, and one in three allowing for rapid technology transfer and shorter
of its aerospace engineers.13 R&D spending on learning curves. In some cases, the production of mil-
human capital at all levels helps retain US scientific itary and commercial aircraft has even taken place
competitiveness, an extremely important asset in a within the same facility. The airframe design for the
competitive global economy. Boeing 707 drew on that of Boeing’s KC-135 military
tanker, for example, and Boeing’s ability to design
Technology Transfers and Commercial Spinoffs. large, advanced composite structures benefited from
The second channel through which defense research the military R&D it did as a subcontractor to Northrop
and development spending benefits the wider econ- Grumman on the B-2 stealth bomber.
omy is technology transfers and commercial spin- Yet another source of technology diffusion is the
offs. The RDT&E budget supports seven budget tendency of defense companies to subcontract work
activities: basic research, applied research, advanced to small and medium commercial enterprises.
technology development, demonstration and valida- Today’s military purchases numerous commercial,
tion, engineering and manufacturing development, off-the-shelf products, thereby supporting high-
management support, and operational systems technology private-sector companies involved in
4
MACKENZIE EAGLEN AND JULIA POLLAK
production of goods and services not related to R&D has often demonstrated technological possibil-
defense. The leading sectors supplying the defense ities that were previously in doubt. In so doing, it
market are the scientific research and development has lowered the risks other investors perceived and
industry, the engineering and architectural indus- spurred related ventures in the private sector. One
tries, the telecommunications industry, and the air- study of 67 countries between 2000 and 2005 finds
craft industry. Private-sector aerospace product and that military technology was widely diffused to
parts manufacturers design and construct many other sectors and that military R&D had an espe-
component systems of military aircraft; navigational cially positive and substantial impact on economic
and measuring device manufacturers develop many growth in medium- to high-income countries,
of the complex electronics and guidance systems where technological innovations were more likely to
used in military rockets and missiles; and search and be harnessed and commercialized.16
navigation equipment manufacturers supply the
military with many of its radar, sonar, and other
tracking systems. Defense companies create demand CHINA’S R&D SPENDING CAN BE
5
US MILITARY TECHNOLOGICAL SUPREMACY UNDER THREAT
FIGURE 2
TOP SEVEN COUNTRIES FOR EXPORTS OF DEFENSE ARTICLES, 2005–09
14
12
10
8
$ billions
0
Japan UK Israel South Korea Australia Egypt UAE
Source: GAO, Report to Foreign Affairs Committee on Defense Exports (September 2010), figure 3.
countries, with about half going to Japan, the United defense companies to build important international
Kingdom, Israel, South Korea, Australia, Egypt, and partnerships and pool scarce resources with like-
the United Arab Emirates.20 minded nations. These partnerships sometimes
Some of the benefits of international defense trade allow US firms to obtain advanced foreign technolo-
include increased access to overseas technologies, gies that would otherwise take far longer to filter
capital, and skilled labor; accelerated innovation as a into the US economy.
result of competition; employment for tens of thou-
sands of American workers by export-driven defense
companies and subcontractors; and a wider market Defense R&D Investments That Have Spurred
for American products, which generates economies Commercial Innovation
of scale and drives production costs down. Access to
international markets provides defense companies Some examples of technologies that emerged largely
with the opportunity to make additional sales, which as a result of defense R&D investments but have
can sometimes enable them to keep their US-based since become ubiquitous are atomic energy, high-
production lines open longer than their government powered batteries, night vision, digital photography,
customer would support and sustain employment radar, avionics systems, electronic computers, the
levels, even during times of defense spending reduc- Internet, computer software, and GPS facilities. More
tions and uncertainty at home. recently, the military has made significant strides in
US government efforts to promote interoperabil- developing remotely piloted or unmanned aerial
ity with allies and partner states have also enabled vehicles, and several of the technologies involved are
6
MACKENZIE EAGLEN AND JULIA POLLAK
appearing in a growing number of civil applications, the United States against missile attacks. The sys-
such as firefighting and mineral exploration. tem was seminal to the development of the com-
The commercial aircraft sector—one of the puter and opened the doors to many military and
nation’s largest net exporters—is perhaps the most civilian spinoffs.
noteworthy legacy of civil spinoffs from military IBM used much of the pioneering research it
R&D. Federal defense R&D funding has accounted gained access to in building its later commercial
for well over half of total aerospace R&D investments computer hardware. In particular, military R&D on
since 1945,21 and countless examples exist of military SAGE produced technologies such as magnetic core
technologies that have made their way into memory, large operating systems, integrated video
passenger airliners, agricultural planes, traffic helicop- display, algebraic computer languages, analog-to-
ters, and other civil aircraft in use all around the world. digital conversion techniques, digital transmission
Indeed, the rapid growth of commercial aircraft for over telephone lines, light guns, among many others.
passenger and cargo transport after World War II
began largely with the conversion of ex-military air-
OVERALL, THE DEFENSE AND AEROSPACE
craft, such as the US Air Force’s Boeing B-29 Super-
fortress. It would take several volumes to mention all INDUSTRY SUPPORTS SOME 3.53 MILLION
of the military inventions and technological develop-
AMERICAN JOBS.
ments that have filtered into the commercial sector,
so we will focus here on only some illustrative exam-
ples from the information technology sector.
Integrated Circuits. During the Cold War, the
Electronic Computers. The first general-purpose Department of Defense and Atomic Energy Com-
electronic digital computer in the United States, the mission provided significant funding to electronics
ENIAC (Electronic Numerical Integrator and Com- manufacturers for R&D relating to integrated cir-
puter), was developed during World War II by the cuits, semiconductor materials, and transistors. Inte-
US Army Ordnance Corps for the purpose of grated circuit technology has since revolutionized
quickly calculating trajectories and firing tables for electronics and made computers, mobile phones,
artillery. After initial successes, the military funded and many other digital devices possible. Military
the development of additional computers in the demand for semiconductor components supported
1940s and 1950s that soon gained a wide range of the commercialization of integrated circuit technolo-
applications. The US armed forces believed that fully gies by generating price reductions, which facilitated
exploiting the new technologies would require a commercial demand. The military also awarded pro-
substantial industrial infrastructure. As a result, they curement contracts to new companies, which
supported the broader diffusion of the new calculator- encouraged competition and birthed many small,
computer technologies to researchers and firms and nimble, entrepreneurial firms. In addition, the mili-
supported further computer technology develop- tary’s “second source” policy (which required sup-
ment projects throughout the 1950s. pliers to develop additional domestic producers
One such project was the SAGE (Semi-Automatic capable of producing identical products) led to con-
Ground Environment) interceptor early detection siderable technology transfer between companies,
air defense system. In 1952, the International Busi- fostering rapid growth and competitive strength in
ness Machines Corporation (IBM) began working the industry.
with Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s (MIT’s)
Lincoln Laboratories to finalize the design of a digi- Software. The US software industry also benefited
tal computer and radar system designed to defend substantially from defense R&D and procurement.
7
US MILITARY TECHNOLOGICAL SUPREMACY UNDER THREAT
Beginning in 1959, the DoD was partly responsible field of packet switching. DARPA saw the potential
for funding and overseeing the development of for military applications in the technology and
COBOL (common business-oriented language), one funded the development and deployment of the
of the oldest computer programming languages. The world’s first electronic computer network.
DoD required that all computers purchased by the ARPANET, as it was named, was the earliest forerun-
military support the language, resulting in the wide- ner of the Internet. By 1975, it had grown to more
spread diffusion of COBOL as a programming lan- than 100 nodes, as universities and other defense
guage in both military and civilian applications. research facilities were linked to it.
DoD demand for custom software also facilitated the The Internet’s core technological innovations dif-
growth in custom software firms between 1969 and fused widely through the US research and industrial
1980. Initially, DoD funding accounted for the bulk infrastructure and led to the development of many
of the software industry, growing dramatically until supporting technologies. The US Internet industry
it was finally outstripped by commercial industry in soon became a place of rapid innovation, constant
the 1990s. market entry by new firms, and intense competition,
largely because of DARPA’s willingness to fund proj-
The Computer Mouse. The first computer mouse ects in many different universities and private R&D
was invented in 1963 by researcher Douglas Engel- laboratories and to buy products from numerous
bart at the Stanford Research Institute’s Augmenta- different companies. The spinoffs of these invest-
tion Research Center, funded by the DoD’s ments are ubiquitous today in numerous Web-based
Advanced Research Projects Agency (now DARPA). technologies and applications and represent a major
The mouse enjoys widespread use with personal portion of the US economy.
computers today, but the technology remained rela-
tively obscure until it was exploited by Apple Mac- Email. Email was an accidental spinoff of DoD R&D
intosh in 1984. Military-funded technologies and funding. In 1971, programmer Raymond Tomlinson
patents often sit on the shelf for many years before invented a system for sending electronic mail over
the private sector takes advantage of them. For the DoD’s ARPANET. It was the first system able to
example, the personal assistant Siri began as a send messages between users on different hosts,
DARPA-funded initiative to support military person- which it achieved by using the @ sign to separate
nel long before Apple bought its parent company, users from their machines. Tomlinson was working
SRI International, and adapted the technology for on other programming required for ARPANET and
the iPhone.22 It has long been a matter of concern was not specifically assigned to develop an electronic
inside the Pentagon to find ways to improve com- mail system—the idea arose in the course of his other
munication with the private sector and expedite the research. Email is a perfect example of innovations
military-civil technology transfer process. that can transpire when federal defense R&D brings
together the nation’s brightest scientists, engineers,
The Internet. Although French and British scien- and computer programmers on pioneering research
tists made important contributions to the develop- projects using new systems and materials.
ment of packet-switching and computer-networking
technologies, the Internet was primarily invented The Global Positioning System (GPS). In 1973,
and commercialized in the United States, with the the DoD developed a space-based satellite naviga-
DoD playing a critical role. During the 1960s, sev- tion system in an attempt to improve on earlier nav-
eral researchers at MIT, the Stanford Research Insti- igation systems such as the US Navy’s 1960s Transit
tute, and the RAND Corporation, among other satellite navigation system. GPS was originally run
institutions, made significant developments in the with 24 satellites and proved capable of supplying
8
MACKENZIE EAGLEN AND JULIA POLLAK
FIGURE 3
RDT&E SPENDING CONTINUES FREEFALL
72,000
70,000
68,000
66,000
$ Millions
64,000
62,000
60,000
58,000
56,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Source: US Department of Defense, Fiscal Year 2013 Green Book, table 6-8.
location and time information anywhere on earth in R&D is projected to decline in the coming years
all weather conditions, given an unobstructed line of because of significant budget reductions. Research
sight to four or more satellites. The system initially and development sponsored by the DoD is expected
gave the military critical new navigation and surveil- to see the steepest decline.23 More than ever, the
lance capabilities, but its military and commercial RDT&E account will have to compete with other
impact has since exceeded anything the initial priorities in the shrinking defense budget, such as
researchers could have envisioned. Through features rising personnel and operations costs. Whereas var-
such as highly accurate clock synchronization, GPS ious procurement programs may manage to halt
has revolutionized the global air traffic control sys- funding reductions, or at least delay them temporar-
tem, cellular telephony, and numerous other civil ily, the RDT&E account is likely to absorb the brunt
functions. It has many advanced scientific uses, but of defense cuts because it is often easier for short-
it also has applications in everyday products such as sighted politicians to get away with cutting pro-
television and radio, mobile phones, cars, and bank- grams when their benefits are delayed.
ing systems. Amidst tightening defense budgets and a steadily
shrinking RDT&E account, even traditionally popu-
lar accounts such as Science and Technology (S&T)
Current Trends in US Defense R&D Spending funding are coming up short. The Obama administra-
tion’s FY 2013 request represents a 2.5 percent cut
As figure 3 illustrates, overall federal government from 2012 S&T funding levels.24 When defense
spending on both defense- and nondefense-related spending began to decline in the late 1980s, Congress
9
US MILITARY TECHNOLOGICAL SUPREMACY UNDER THREAT
initially defended S&T funding and continued to base is least able to make up the shortfall. Today’s
authorize increases for several years. After FY 1993, defense industrial base is under strain and lacks
however, President Bill Clinton’s steep defense reduc- depth. After 1993, Clinton-era defense cuts forced
tions started to cut into S&T funding as well, ulti- the 30 major defense firms to consolidate into 5 and
mately driving it back down to FY 1987 levels by the saw many companies exit the business altogether.
end of the decade. Although successive Pentagon strategy documents
have pledged to maintain a robust and capable
defense industry that can thrive and compete in the
IN 2010, US EXPORTS OF AEROSPACE
global marketplace,27 recent studies and emerging
PRODUCTS TOTALED $77.8 BILLION WHILE trends raise doubts.
In the defense aerospace industry, for example,
IMPORTS TOTALED $34 BILLION, LEADING
congressional language requires “that the United
TO A TRADE SURPLUS OF $43.8 BILLION. States must ensure, among other things, that more
than one aircraft company can design, engineer, pro-
duce and support military aircraft in the future.”28
The George W. Bush administration reversed the As a recent RAND Corporation study illustrates,
downward trend and made it official policy in the defense R&DTE funding is almost as important as
2001 Quadrennial Defense Review to stabilize S&T procurement contracts if a defense contractor is to
funding at 3 percent of the overall defense budget, retain the capabilities to produce fixed-wing air-
although it never actually achieved that bench- craft.29 This same study cautioned that “unless very
mark.25 Although S&T spending initially continued purposeful and structured program decisions are
to increase under the Obama administration, recent made soon, the congressional objective . . . may not
defense cuts have made even this bipartisan priority be achieved.”30 According to RAND, smaller pro-
a casualty of falling toplines. This is in spite of the grams as currently planned (a combination of train-
warnings contained in the administration’s own ing aircraft, tankers, and a Navy unmanned aircraft)
defense strategy documents, which state, “Even at would sustain only one company (Boeing), and even
current, relatively robust levels of investment, the if aerospace competitor Lockheed Martin were to
DoD S&T program is struggling to keep pace with rely on a strategy of selling the F-22 jet to foreign
the expanding challenges of the evolving security partners (which it cannot), international sales would
environment and the increasing speed and cost of sustain the company for only four years (2016–19).31
global technology development.”26 The stark reality is that there is just not enough busi-
The S&T program is widely believed to be imper- ness to go around. Aside from the optionally
ative to maintaining technological superiority, but it manned long-range strike bomber, for the first time
is difficult to calculate the return on investment of in history, the US military has no new manned air-
each outlay because the time between initial craft under design.32 Keeping two prime firms
research and resulting new operational systems is healthy and competitive past 2025 would require
often long and technological developments often substantial R&D and procurement investments in
follow an indirect path, as some of the examples we large-scale programs, such as a next-generation
have given illustrate. As a result, congressional sup- bomber and sixth-generation fighter. In the absence
port for S&T spending is likely to wane in the face of such programs, the DoD will struggle to keep
of a falling topline and competing internal budget- suppliers in a low-rate delivery status and will likely
ary demands. see its manufacturing sources diminish.
Moreover, these cuts can be expected to hit at a In addition to firm closures and consolidations,
time when the private-sector industrial research several other trends have emerged over the past
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MACKENZIE EAGLEN AND JULIA POLLAK
20 years as a result of funding strains, market turbu- on robotics and autonomous systems, such as
lence, and other factors. One notable trend is that unmanned underwater vehicles, firefighting robots,
large defense companies have moved away from in- and sensor networks.36 Nevertheless, it will be a
house R&D, conducted in industrial laboratories or challenge for the DoD to sustain the scale, scope, and
in R&D subdivisions, toward greater competitive quality of research projects such as these unless
outsourcing. The RAND Corporation says that the funding remains robust.
old model was “a successful model for a corporation
in a stable environment,”33 but because of greater
uncertainty, much of what companies produced is Obstacles to the Development of a Sound
now outsourced to lower-tier contractors, both for- Defense R&D Strategy
eign and domestic. Instead of managing internal
research divisions and staff, larger companies in both While Pentagon leaders and pro-defense members
the defense and nondefense sectors increasingly find of Congress try to navigate these challenges and
themselves managing and organizing complex inno- develop strategies to deal with new budgetary and
vation networks of smaller external suppliers. They economic trends, they also face mounting political
also invest in small start-up companies that are more opposition from those who argue that the govern-
technologically cutting-edge and whose investors are ment’s money is better spent on other priorities. One
more prepared to bear the risks of innovation. common refrain is that defense R&D “crowds out”
RAND defense analysts worry that, despite some private-sector R&D.
encouraging public statements, the DoD currently However, defense is supported by four principles
appears to have no policy for increasing innovation that make it an exception to normal patterns of
that acknowledges these changes and has no frame- government spending. For one, defense is the first
work for what such a policy should look like.34 Pol- and most important responsibility of government
icymakers should consider expanding R&D funds under the Constitution. In this sense, defense R&D
to small firms as a way to encourage innovation, is a public good that cannot be considered part of
progress, and efficiency. This is especially true in the normal economy.
areas like software and cyberwarfare, where the mar- A technologically dominant military guarantees
ket changes so quickly that only highly specialized US companies undisrupted access to global mar-
firms have the agility and personnel to stay on top. kets. Moreover, defense spending operates on a
According to Frank Kendall, under secretary of scale that is simply unknown to the civilian econ-
defense for acquisition, technology, and logistics, the omy. No civilian corporation has the resources,
DoD plans to become more selective with its R&D reach, or ability to sponsor the kinds of research
resources in the face of declining budgets. To that end, and innovation necessary for an organization that
the Pentagon has directed the Defense Science Board employs more than 2.2 million individuals directly.
to conduct a study to determine which technologies The scale, length, and purpose of defense programs
to prioritize. The study will seek to identify technolo- makes them unique to the public sector—defense
gies that will be pivotal over the next two decades to cannot exist outside of the public sector, but no
the sustainment of innovation and superior warfight- other public-sector organization could exist and
ing capability. The assessment could influence the budget like the DoD. In this context, the alternative
allocation of R&D spending as soon as the fiscal year to federal investment in national defense is not a
2014 budget is made public in February.35 more efficient private market for national defense
Even amid cutbacks, there are some promising but, rather, no investment in national defense at all,
developments. In mid-March, for example, the Navy which hurts the warfighter and our national deter-
opened a cutting-edge laboratory devoted to research rence and global presence.
11
US MILITARY TECHNOLOGICAL SUPREMACY UNDER THREAT
Another common argument against the eco- conducive to technology transfer between the pub-
nomic benefit of military R&D is that defense tech- lic and private sectors while still maintaining the
nologies are becoming increasingly specialized and security of critical defense technologies.
therefore less relevant to commercial industry and
the civil sector. This argument, which has been
repeated throughout history, simply manifests a lack How to Structure Defense R&D to Maximize
of foresight and imagination. The US defense estab- Multisector Benefits
lishment once believed that harnessing flight and
developing aircraft would be too complex and risky The success of defense R&D investments and their
a proposition ever to have a military, let alone civil- spillover benefits are strongly influenced by the level
ian, use. The first studies suggesting that humans and structure of funding, as well as by the policy
might be able to send cameras into orbit for military environment (such as intellectual property rights,
surveillance purposes were deemed similarly fanci- export controls, and other regulatory policy) affect-
ful and far-fetched at first. Today, of course, the ing the training of scientists, the development of
influence of airplanes and helicopters, as well as technology, and the transfer or sale of technology
observation, communications, navigation, and among sectors and countries. Historically, defense-
weather satellites is ubiquitous. Similarly, technolo- civil technology transfer has been far more successful
gies deemed excessively complex, specialized, and in the United States than in other countries because
quixotic today could become commonplace within of the sheer magnitude of US defense-related R&D
the coming decades. and procurement spending, the prominent role
A final argument in favor of redirecting defense played by research universities and industry, and the
R&D funding toward other priorities or abandoning DoD’s willingness to work with small, start-up com-
them altogether is that defense programs are too slow panies. Falling budgets, a shrinking number of prime
and expensive. It is true that a new piece of defense defense corporations, and the changing locus of
technology can take many years to specify, test, and innovation all present new challenges. Here are some
acquire, but this is largely due to the onerous ways the DoD can address them.
requirements that Congress has established. It is also
true that defense systems can be excessively expen- Provide Adequate and Stable Funding for
sive, but this is largely because defense contractors Defense Modernization, Including RDT&E. His-
supply their products in only the limited—and often, torically, defense budgets have experienced event-
changing—quantities that the government customer driven booms but then been raided during
procures, while being prevented from exploring intervening periods of peace. World War II, the
wider markets abroad due to congressional export Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Cold War, and the
control restrictions. Defense exports can help reduce September 11 attacks all followed periods of inade-
unit costs and spread the burden, but different coun- quate defense investment. Each event prompted
tries demand different specifications and Congress sharp increases in spending, most of which was
often requires that US systems have unique features, directed toward funding the technological and man-
which drive costs back up. power requirements of the war of the day. There was
Of course, some truth exists in all of these argu- no more hollow buildup in military spending than
ments, as do pitfalls with defense R&D investments— the growth following 2001—which, while necessary
as with any undertaking. The following section lays to fulfill urgent warfighting needs, did little to renew
out some recommendations for how the govern- the military’s aging inventories.37
ment can improve the effectiveness of defense R&D This spending pattern has undermined the devel-
and procurement and create an environment more opment of a stable, coherent defense program
12
MACKENZIE EAGLEN AND JULIA POLLAK
designed with sufficient regard for long-term goals, increase the number of H1-B visas for highly skilled
such as well-balanced modernization. The single workers, and the DoD should make an effort to
most important reform that would encourage innova- reduce the backlog for security background checks.
tion and support a vibrant military R&D workforce
and infrastructure would be for Congress to ensure Reform Export Controls and Promote Defense
that adequate and stable funding is provided for Exports to Friends and Allies. Export regulations are
defense RDT&E, even after current operations wind meant to keep sensitive technologies from falling into
down. A reasonable benchmark for RDT&E spending the wrong hands, but they often prohibit our defense
might be roughly $73 billion in FY 2013 dollars— contractors from sharing technologies with allied and
just about halfway between the peak of 2008 spend- partner states. They also prevent defense manufactur-
ing and the low point of the current drawdown. ers from selling products that are already widely avail-
In addition, as Steven Hayward and colleagues able on the open market. American workers suffer this
have argued, Congress should consider the benefits loss of business and opportunity as a result.
of increasing the R&D budget of the Department of The administration has proposed a number of
Energy.38 Congress should also establish closer reforms to address this problem, as have numerous
links between the DoD and the Department of independent defense analysts.39 Export control lists
Energy and between research and procurement, to should be consolidated and reviewed frequently so
drive the successful commercialization and that items can be promptly “de-listed” once they no
improvement of energy technology on which the longer need to be restricted. The administration can
military is so reliant. also explore closer partnerships with our friends and
allies on the joint development of weapons systems
Improve the Recruitment of Skilled Scientists and through foreign sales. Instead of shuttering the F-
and Engineers. A skilled and highly trained work- 22 fighter production line, Congress should have pro-
force is critical for continued innovation. Currently, moted sales to countries like Israel, Japan, Australia,
however, the defense industry’s workforce is declin- and Canada. Congress should also encourage the sale
ing in population and rising in average age, with a of F-35 fighter aircraft to India. Such foreign sales
large percentage nearing retirement. With fewer would not only strengthen the United States strategi-
defense programs and a smaller number of new cally by making our allies more capable but also
program starts, scientists are likely to work on reduce unit costs for the US military and taxpayer.
fewer projects than they might have in the past and
therefore find the defense sector a less appealing Accept More Risk to Develop Novel Systems.
work environment than high-technology firms such Many defense companies report that a major hin-
as Apple or Google. drance to undertaking R&D on risky, new technolo-
Current developments in unmanned aircraft sys- gies is the government’s growing emphasis on
tems are likely to sustain some excitement in the maximizing the return on investment, minimizing
coming years, but the DoD will need to introduce cost overruns, preventing schedule slippages, and
additional programs to maintain its stated goal of penalizing companies for poor performance, as meas-
attracting the nation’s best and brightest. The Penta- ured against strict performance measures. The DoD
gon and Congress should also review security clear- may need to develop a different set of metrics for tech-
ance requirements, which pose a significant nological innovations than those used for ordinary
challenge. With a third of all science and engineer- programs, such as lower performance standards or
ing doctoral degrees from US universities awarded investment return thresholds. Novel systems involve
to foreign students, defense firms struggle to recruit uncertainty, and often the full benefits of cutting-edge
eligible graduates. Congress should take steps to research are realized only decades after the initial
13
US MILITARY TECHNOLOGICAL SUPREMACY UNDER THREAT
research. According to a recent RAND Corporation sponsored by the US government exist. Their studies
study on weapon system acquisition: have played a central role in the development of
numerous critical technologies. For example, the
Current acquisition policies and processes are RAND Corporation, the original US think tank,
too risk averse to enable the effective develop- played a central role in researching satellites for space
ment and timely employment of novel sys- reconnaissance and prompting investments in tech-
tems. Consequently, DoD needs a separate nologies such as infrared detection sensors, space
acquisition strategy that is less tied to achiev- vehicles, rocket propulsion, orbiting television cam-
ing precise cost, schedule, and performance eras, and electronic transmission. RAND was also
outcomes. The new strategy should include a largely responsible for developing packet switching
focus on unique integrations of existing and and digital networks, the technologies that led to the
emerging technologies, a willingness to accept creation of ARPANET and ultimately the Internet. In
risks, easy and quick termination of programs addition, RAND made significant contributions to
not yielding expected benefits, and early test the development of computer software. As a recent
and demonstration of military utility.40 paper summarizing RAND’s contributions con-
cluded, “[these advances] make a persuasive case
that an organization whose sole job is to generate
Keep R&D Funding Honest. The Pentagon should ideas can promote the advance of technologies with
consider restoring the original intent of research and the power to change the life of an entire culture.”43
development funding by making it distinct from test- In a May 2011 memorandum, then-Under Secre-
ing and evaluation. By establishing a separate budget tary of Defense Ashton Carter emphasized the high
category for testing and evaluation, the Pentagon value and unique capabilities that FFRDCs provide
could provide increased transparency for funding lev- the Department of Defense. He also released new
els spent on research and exploratory development as guidelines covering areas such as nondisclosure
opposed to industrial development, testing, and eval- agreements, information access, and postemploy-
uation. This would allow the Pentagon to more read- ment restrictions for FFRDC researchers. Congress
ily prioritize potential breakthrough research while should ensure that these restrictions are targeted and
controlling testing and evaluation costs.41 do not unnecessarily impede the flow of nonsensitive
technologies between the DoD and the private sector.
Modernize and Internationalize the Safety Act.
The Heritage Foundation has long been calling on Ensure Intellectual Property Laws Are Adequate
Congress to “revitalize, broaden, and internationalize and Favorable to Technology Transfer. The struc-
the Safety Act,” a piece of legislation that encourages ture of a country’s patent laws strongly influences
innovation by providing liability protection for coun- the technology transfer process and the dual use of
terterrorism technologies. According to Heritage’s military technology. Congress should work with
James Carafano, Congress should broaden the act to defense researchers to ensure that the US patent sys-
apply to cybersecurity and other security technology tem is modern and adequate for the task of protect-
needs, and the administration should encourage ing intellectual property while also publicizing
other countries to establish comparable regimes to inventions and fostering the use of military knowl-
promote global innovation and open new security edge in other applications.
technology markets.42
Improve Incentives for Technology Transfer from
Preserve Federally Funded Research and Devel- the DoD to the Private Sector and to State and
opment Centers (FFRDCs). Nearly 40 FFRDCs Local Governments. For the past 25 years or so,
14
MACKENZIE EAGLEN AND JULIA POLLAK
Congress has established numerous legislative initia- conduct an internal review that determines which
tives to encourage collaborative ventures and tech- existing requirements could be met by dual-use
nology transfers between federal R&D programs, products that are not already. Although many pro-
industry, academia, and state or local government grams will not have an obvious civilian counterpart,
projects. These have included tax credits for indus- components of even sophisticated platforms may
trial payments to universities for research and exist elsewhere in the civilian economy, often at a
antitrust laws that facilitate cooperative research and cheaper price point than if the DoD were to issue a
joint manufacturing. requirement for that part to be constructed from
One important incentive for the transfer and scratch. A third solution is on the civilian side. The
commercialization of technology, for example, is the DoD should send representatives to major research
law allowing government-operated laboratories to hubs and survey existing civilian technologies that
enter into cooperative research and development may have a dual-use role. Many companies have a
agreements (CRADAs) with universities and private- vision to market dual-use technologies to the Penta-
sector companies.44 Approximately 2,600 to 3,000 gon but have not been able to gain access, while oth-
DoD CRADAs were active each fiscal year between ers may have perfectly usable dual-use technologies,
2004 and 2008, according to the Department of but never had it occur to them to pitch the idea to the
Commerce.45 A CRADA is a legal document defin- DoD. By being proactive and surveying what already
ing the rules and regulations governing collaborative exists in the civilian economy, the DoD can more
ventures. Some of these rules include “revolving effectively leverage its resources by utilizing tech-
door” restrictions and checks on conflicts of interest. nologies that have already been developed for com-
Some may need to be modernized and relaxed to mercial applications.
allow government and industry to communicate
more easily about future needs. Congress should
explore ways to update these laws to facilitate rapid THE STARK REALITY IS THAT THERE IS
technology transfer and commercialization. JUST NOT ENOUGH BUSINESS TO GO
Develop a Comprehensive Strategy for Private AROUND. ASIDE FROM THE OPTIONALLY
Sector Investment in Defense Innovation. The MANNED LONG-RANGE STRIKE BOMBER,
defense RDT&E account is not the only source of
funding for defense innovation. For example, the FOR THE FIRST TIME IN HISTORY, THE
private sector also invests through venture capital US MILITARY HAS NO NEW MANNED
and private equity. Yet the private sector often faces
severe obstacles when it comes to cooperating with AIRCRAFT UNDER DESIGN.
the federal government, especially with regard to
dual-use technologies. One way to deepen coopera-
tion is through transparency, which should be pur- The Pentagon can also improve its marketing to
sued on a number of levels. the commercial world. All too often, potential suppli-
For one, the Pentagon should compile a common ers are intimidated by mountains of red tape, hassle,
index of all existing dual-use technologies within its and unpredictability when it comes to working with
purview. This can range from GPS satellites to the government. One solution is for the DoD to com-
switches in cockpits. The idea is to gather an exhaus- pile a list of potential projects that the private sector
tive list that illustrates how many programs—and can contribute—and then market it as an open com-
how much money—goes into dual-use technologies petition to industry. This would have the effect of
department-wide. Second, the Pentagon should encouraging outside ideas while forcing the DoD to
15
US MILITARY TECHNOLOGICAL SUPREMACY UNDER THREAT
16
Notes
17
US MILITARY TECHNOLOGICAL SUPREMACY UNDER THREAT
26. US Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense 37. Mackenzie Eaglen, “The Past Decade of Military
Review Report, February 2010, 94, www.defense.gov Spending: What We Spent, What We Wasted, and What
/qdr/images/QDR_as_of_12Feb10_1000.pdf. We Need,” American Enterprise Institute, January 24,
27. Ibid., 81–82. 2012, www.aei.org/article/foreign-and-defense-policy
28. See House of Representatives, Committee on Armed /defense/the-past-decade-of-military-spending-what-we-
Services, National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year spent-what-we-wasted-and-what-we-need.
2010 (Report 111-166, October 2009), www.gpo.gov 38. Steven F. Hayward et al., Post-Partisan Power, Ameri-
/fdsys/pkg/CRPT-111hrpt166/pdf/CRPT-111hrpt166.pdf, can Enterprise Institute, October 13, 2010, www.aei.org
380; and US House of Representatives, Department of /papers/energy-and-the-environment/post-partisan-power.
Defense and Emergency Supplemental Appropriations for 39. See, for example, James Jay Carafano, “Five Steps to
Recovery from and Response to Terrorist Attacks on the United Save America’s Defense Industrial Base,” Heritage Founda-
States Act, 2002, Public Law 107-117 (January 10, 2002), tion Web Memo, June 9, 2011, www.heritage.org/research
section 8162, www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/PLAW-107publ117 /reports/2011/06/5-steps-to-save-americas-defense-
/pdf/PLAW-107publ117.pdf. industrial-base.
29. John Birkler et al., Keeping a Competitive U.S. Military 40. John Birkler et al., “From Marginal Adjustments to
Aircraft Industry Aloft: Findings from an Analysis of the Indus- Meaningful Change: Rethinking Weapon System Acquisi-
trial Base (RAND Corporation, 2011), xxi, xxiv, www.rand tion” (The RAND Corporation, 2010), xiv–xv, www.rand
.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2011/RAND_ .org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2010/RAND_
MG1133.pdf. MG1020.pdf.
30. Ibid, xxix. 41. Arthur Herman, email to authors, June 20, 2012.
31. Ibid, xvii. 42. Carafano, “Five Steps to Save America’s Defense
32. Michael O’Hanlon, The National Security Industrial Industrial Base.”
Base: A Crucial Asset of the United States, Whose Future May 43. Virginia Campbell, “How RAND Invented the Post-
Be in Jeopardy, The Brookings Institution, February 2011, war World,” Invention & Technology 20, no. 1 (Summer
14, www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011 2004): 59, www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/reprints
/2/defense%20ohanlon/02_defense_ohanlon. /2009/RAND_RP1396.pdf.
33. Ibid., 50. 44. See the Federal Technology Transfer Act, Public Law
34. Ibid., 57. 99-502, 99th Cong. (October 20, 1986), which amends
35. Jason Sherman, “Kendall Commissions Study of the Stevenson-Wydler Technology Innovation Act, Public Law
Technologies to Ensure Superiority in 2030,” Inside 96-480, 96th Cong. (October 21, 1980).
Defense, March 20, 2012. 45. US Department of Commerce, National Institute of
36. Alan C. Schultz, “Navy Opens Cutting-Edge Lab for Standards and Technology, Federal Laboratory Technology
Robotics and Autonomous Systems,” White House Office Transfer, Fiscal Year 2008, March 2010, 8, www.nist.gov
of Science and Technology Policy, March 16, 2012, /tpo/publications/upload/Fed_Lab_Tech_Transfer_Report
www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2012/03/16/navy-opens- _Congress_FY08_3-8-2010.pdf.
cutting-edge-lab-robotics-and-autonomous-systems.
18
About the Authors
19
AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE
FOR PUBLIC POLICY RESEARCH