Irrobuxtiamo la strategia – 14 Febbraio 2018

Cari buxiti,

- Il timore che avevo era fondato: in circostanze come i crolli inspiegabili di

settimana scorsa, troppe cose sono strane e restano senza spiegazione.
Sembra che un whistleblower abbia riportato modalitá con cui vari soggetti
siano riusciti ad alterare il VIX e a ottenerne ingiusti profitti.
https://bloom.bg/2ErFK7C

- Nello stesso filone delle scorrettezze, ecco una rivelazione di Shah Gilani che
sembra essere stata interrotta in tv da un problema tecnico. Il tanto
rispettabile NYSE permette ai “trader di alta frequenza” (high-frequency
traders) di mettere i loro server affianco a quelli dello Stock exchange e,
considerando che al giorno d’oggi gli ordini si fanno in maniera inizialmente
decentralizzata, è possibile per questi server di vedere in anticipo i milioni di
ordini che arrivano e di trarne profitto. Ragion per cui, quando i mercati
crollano, non sarebbe cosí male di chiudere tutte le posizioni.
http://bit.ly/2Er7sxh

- Il sito ValueEngine condivide quest’analisi su Citigroup il cui rating è uno

STRONG BUY. Obiettivo a un mese +1,09%, a 3 mesi a +1,63%, a 6 mesi a
4,66% e a un anno 13,03%.
Il report disponibile qui: http://bit.ly/2GfSpai
La fonte disponibile qui: http://bit.ly/2ErBWzh

- Newsletter interessante con prospettiva macro: il successo delle borse di

Lunedí è stato dovuto anche all’annuncio del piano Infrastrutture e al budget
annunciati da Trump.
L’aspetto inquietante è che tale piano prevede un raddoppio del deficit, alla
luce di una riduzione delle entrate grazie alla riforma fiscale, il che, sul lungo
termine, non puó portare a qualcosa di buono.
http://bit.ly/2o18vO6

- Sempre sul macro, questo autori ci consiglia di uscire dagli stock e liquidare il
prima possibile le nostre posizioni con argomentazioni e ragionamenti
convincenti, sostenuti dalle sue previsioni azzeccate nei mesi passati.
La ragione principale è il fmaoso QT (Quantitative tightening) che ha causato
un -10% sui mercato dopo un solo prelievo di $20b e che lascia

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 Irrobuxtiamo la strategia – 14 Febbraio 2018
all’immaginazione i risultati una volta che si raggiungerá l’obiettivo dei $50b.
L’attuale movimento (che la FED non sembra neanche voler commentare)
sembra esattamente lo stesso che ha portato alla crisi del 2008. Grazie
Trump!
http://bit.ly/2suR9Oj

- Buone notizie macro: da Goldman Sachs esce la statistica per cui meno di un
terzo delle correzioni hanno storicamente portato a recessioni.
Inoltre la famosa Yield Curve si è recentemente impennata, a segnalare un
aumento dell’ottimismo degli investitori.
http://bit.ly/2sv7x1l

- McDonald’s vuole aumentare la presenza in Giappone con 200 nuovi

“ristoranti”.
http://bit.ly/2GdsQGO

- Edward Jones rialza Boeing da Hold a BUY con un upside del 14%.
http://bit.ly/2F4xU0T

- Le vendite retail di Caterpillar sono salite del 34% year-to-year.

http://bit.ly/2C1sO6A

- Nvidia In nota positive dopo le affermazioni del loro CFO. Gli highlight sono
che l’azienda conta di beneficiare dall’aumento della domanda di AI, e il
management sta valutando ulteriori opportunitá di sfruttare ed espandere
nuovi mercati. La richiesta dal settore cripto rimarrá volubile ma continuerá.
http://bit.ly/2GcFFkC

- Riflessione sui FAAMG e sul momento negativo che sembrano attraversare.

Facebook riporta una diminuzione del tempo passato sul proprio social,
contemporaneamente a un miglioramento di Snap e twitter.
Apple ha vendite e guidance leggermente sotto i valori precedenti o quelli
attesi.
Netflix deve mettere mano al portfolio per mantenere i propri contenuti e il
CFC peggiorerá da -$2b a -$4b.
Per Google, invece, il business cloud sembra leggermente dietro quello di
Microsoft e Amazon e alcuni brand hanno rimosso le proprie pubblicitá da
Youtube. Inoltre Stifel ha ribassato il titolo da BUY a HOLD.
http://bit.ly/2F5oMc0

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 Irrobuxtiamo la strategia – 14 Febbraio 2018
- Facebook: si consiglia di diffidare dalle recenti critiche e comprare.
Instagram, Whatsapp e Messenger continuano a crescere e la posizione nella
sua industry resta eccellente.
http://bit.ly/2swiaAV

- Baidu batte le attese e vola a +4,7% circa in premarket di mercoledí.

Al cui proposito vorrei ricordare che il titolo ha sofferto da un
misunderstanding ai penultimi earnings (ottobre 2017) quando perse circa il
12%. Se pensate che nel frattempo ci sia stata una rimonta, il titolo è arrivato
al massimo a -4,61% (il 26 gennaio) e sta attualmente a -17,31% (mercoledí
mattina). Ergo un x5 sarebbe stato fatale.
http://bit.ly/2HeWpsL

Trading ideas

Amazon potrebbe essere in canale discendente.

Lo so che sembra assurdo date le premesse, ma la mera analisi tecnica sembrerebbe
(a un primo approccio) confermarla.
Questo è un classico caso di conflitto tra analisi.
http://bit.ly/2o6erVq

Canale discendente anche per Visa.

Ma anche qui, chissá.
http://bit.ly/2GcFFkC

Alerts

Up/Downgrade

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 Irrobuxtiamo la strategia – 14 Febbraio 2018
Da 24/7 Wall St.
Celgene Corp. (NASDAQ: CELG) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight with a $105 price
target (versus a $91.51 close) at Barclays. Shares were up 0.7% at $92.19 on Tuesday morning, in
a 52-week range of $88.32 to $147.17. The consensus analyst target price is $125.31.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) was raised to Outperform from Market Perform with a
$127 price target (versus a $111.74 close) at Keefe Bruyette & Woods. JPMorgan shares have a
52-week trading range of $81.64 to $117.35 and a consensus target price of $118.96.

Total S.A. (NYSE: TOT) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
Raymond James raised Total to Strong Buy from Outperform.

Pepsico Inc. (NYSE: PEP) was downgraded to In-Line from Outperform at Evercore ISI.
Pepsico shares closed up 0.2% at $112.14 on Tuesday, and the consensus target price is
$125.09. The 52-week range is $104.77 to $122.51.

Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE: RIO) was reiterated as Buy and the price target was raised to $61
from $52 at Argus, with the firm raising its 2018 earnings forecast to $4.90 from $4.49
per American depositary share and setting a 2019 estimate of $5.03.

T-Mobile US Inc. (NASDAQ: TMUS) was reiterated as Buy with a target price of $78 (versus a
$57.69 close) at Argus. The independent research firm believes that T-Mobile remains the best
positioned of the national carriers to take market share through another handset adoption and
upgrade super-cycle, even as industry competitive conditions have normalized.

Da MarketBeat.com

 Boeing (NYSE:BA) was upgraded by analysts at Edward Jones from a "hold" rating to a
"buy" rating. current price of $344.13. Read More.
 Basf (OTCMKTS:BASFY) was upgraded by analysts at HSBC Holdings plc from a
"reduce" rating to a "hold" rating. current price of $26.48. Read More.
 Celgene (NASDAQ:CELG) was upgraded by analysts at Barclays PLC from an "equal
weight" rating to an "overweight" rating. They now have a $105.00 price target on the

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 Irrobuxtiamo la strategia – 14 Febbraio 2018
stock, up previously from $91.51. 14.4% upside from the current price of $91.80. Read
More.
 easyJet (LON:EZJ) was upgraded by analysts at Oddo Securities to a "buy" rating. They
now have a GBX 2,100 ($29.01) price target on the stock, up previously from GBX 1,250
($17.27). Read More.
 JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) was upgraded by analysts at Keefe, Bruyette &
Woods from a "market perform" rating to an "outperform" rating. They now have a
$127.00 price target on the stock. 12.9% upside from the current price of $112.49. Read
More.
 Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) was upgraded by analysts at DZ Bank AG from a "hold"
rating to a "buy" rating. current price of $55.04. Read More.
 Total (NYSE:TOT) was upgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley from an "equal weight"
rating to an "overweight" rating. current price of $56.21. Read More.
 Total (NYSE:TOT) was upgraded by analysts at Raymond James Financial, Inc. from an
"outperform" rating to a "strong-buy" rating. current price of $56.21. Read More.
 BP (LON:BP) was downgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley to an "equal weight"
rating. They now have a GBX 550 ($7.60) price target on the stock, down previously
from GBX 645 ($8.91). Read More.
 Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is now covered by analysts at Citigroup Inc. They set a "buy"
rating and a $425.00 price target on the stock. 34.6% upside from the current price of
$315.73. Read More.
 Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) had its price target raised by analysts at Citigroup Inc
from $40.00 to $46.00. They now have a "buy" rating on the stock. 13.0% upside from
the current price of $40.71. Read More.
 Royal Dutch Shell (LON:RDSA) had its price target lowered by analysts at Morgan
Stanley from GBX 3,040 ($42.00) to GBX 2,830 ($39.10). They now have an
"overweight" rating on the stock. Read More.
 Xerox (NYSE:XRX) had its price target lowered by analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
from $41.00 to $40.00. They now have an "overweight" rating on the stock. 36.2%
upside from the current price of $29.36. Read More.
 Fossil Group (NASDAQ:FOSL) had its price target raised by analysts at Buckingham
Research from $5.00 to $8.00. They now have an "underperform" rating on the stock.
11.5% downside from the current price of $9.04. Read More.
 General Motors (NYSE:GM) (TSE:GMM.U) had its price target raised by analysts at
Morgan Stanley from $43.00 to $44.00. They now have an "equal weight" rating on the
stock. 5.5% upside from the current price of $41.72. Read More.
 Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) had its price target lowered by analysts at Credit Suisse
Group AG from $66.00 to $65.00. They now have an "outperform" rating on the stock.
18.7% upside from the current price of $54.77. Read More.
 Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) had its price target lowered by analysts at Leerink
Swann from $67.00 to $66.00. They now have a "market perform" rating on the stock.
20.5% upside from the current price of $54.77. Read More.
 PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) had its price target lowered by analysts at JPMorgan Chase &
Co. from $127.00 to $124.00. They now have an "overweight" rating on the stock. 10.6%
upside from the current price of $112.14. Read More.
 PepsiCo (NASDAQ:PEP) had its price target lowered by analysts at SunTrust Banks,
Inc. from $125.00 to $115.00. They now have a "hold" rating on the stock. 2.6% upside
from the current price of $112.14. Read More.

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 Irrobuxtiamo la strategia – 14 Febbraio 2018
 Ferrari (NYSE:RACE) had its price target raised by analysts at Morgan Stanley from
$100.00 to $105.00. They now have an "underweight" rating on the stock. 16.0%
downside from the current price of $125.05. Read More.
 Under Armour (NYSE:UA) had its price target raised by analysts at JPMorgan Chase &
Co. from $10.00 to $13.00. They now have a "neutral" rating on the stock. 17.3%
downside from the current price of $15.71. Read More.
 Under Armour (NYSE:UAA) had its price target raised by analysts at Telsey Advisory
Group from $13.00 to $15.00. They now have a "market perform" rating on the stock.
13.3% downside from the current price of $17.31. Read More.
 Under Armour (NYSE:UAA) had its price target raised by analysts at Pivotal Research
from $14.00 to $16.00. They now have a "hold" rating on the stock. 7.6% downside from
the current price of $17.31. Read More.
 Under Armour (NYSE:UAA) had its price target raised by analysts at DA Davidson from
$15.00 to $17.00. They now have a "neutral" rating on the stock. 1.8% downside from
the current price of $17.31. Read More.
 Under Armour (NYSE:UAA) had its price target raised by analysts at Stifel Nicolaus
from $17.00 to $18.00. They now have a "buy" rating on the stock. 4.0% upside from the
current price of $17.31. Read More.

Insider sales:

Da Daily Trade Alert:

 Total (TOT) upgraded by Raymond James from Outperform to Strong Buy

 BP (BP) downgraded by Morgan Stanley from Overweight to Equal Weight
 PepsiCo (PEP) downgraded by Evercore ISI from Outperform to In Line

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