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10 ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
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The politics of media measurement
What will it take to rid media metrics from the politics of the industry they cater to?
MEDIA SCOPE
VANITA KOHLI-KHANDEKAR
HT rubbishes TOI’s claims” says the
“ mailer sent out last week. It claims
that on the metric that matters,
Average Issue Readership (AIR),
Hindustan Times is the most read paper
in Mumbai plus Delhi NCR (National
Capital Region) going by the Indian
Readership Survey 2017 (IRS) released
earlier this month. Going by the advert
Will India remain an underdeveloped LoMiC?
Given the realities, the prospects of India becoming something more seem bleak, unless transformational change occurs soon
PERCY S MISTRY
t this time each year India obsess-
A es about growth, budgets and de-
ficits. As usual, the 2018-19 Budget
is being overplayed, though budgets are
but passing fancies. The critical ques-
tion is: Where is India going? Will it
become a rich “developed” nation in the
foreseeable future? Ever?
China grew at 10 per cent for three
decades (1979-2009). India has grown at
7 per cent from 1991 to 2016. Its growth
trajectory has been interrupted by poli-
tics of a kind that China avoids, and by a
continuing hesitancy about economic
reform. Current performance (of a gov-
ernment elected for vikas) in 2014-17 is
disappointing. The twin own-goals — of
demonetisation and appalling GST
implementation — have cost India 1-2
percentage points in growth. The latter
may have done more medium-term
damage than is generally acknowledged.
Initial confidence in Narendra Modi’s
competence is now shaken by the expe-
rience of four years. The government’s
mixed record in executing many of its
programmes has become clear. Crucial
reforms have not been attempted. India
now knows that Modi also acts impul-
sively, against good advice. If this track
record persists, how long will India take
to become a “developed” nation?
The question about the long term is
A rare diplomat
Vijay Keshav Gokhale’s tenure as foreign secretary promises to guide India’s
external affairs along paths never taken before
K P NAYAR
he elevation of Vijay Keshav
T Gokhale to the post of foreign
secretary has been attributed in
contemporary diplomatic folklore to
the role he played in resolving the
Doklam issue in 2017 when he was
India’s ambassador in Beijing.
Such a view does great disservice to
the experience and history of service of
a rare diplomat whose tenure as for-
eign secretary promises to guide
India’s external affairs along paths nev-
er taken before.
Gokhale is only the third officer in
the history of the Indian Foreign Service
(IFS) to have served in Taipei, Hong
Kong and Beijing. He is the only diplo-
mat among these three to have become
ambassador to China after a posting in
Taiwan. Vinod C Khanna, who was
asked by Prime Minister P V Narasimha
Rao to open the India-Taipei Associ-
ation as New Delhi’s outpost in China’s
renegade province, headed the pio-
neering entity only after he left the IFS.
Gokhale spent four years as New
Delhi’s unofficial ambassador in
Taiwan, the longest that any Indian
official has spent in Taipei. Taiwan is
one of the unsung successes of “Make
in India” and efforts to attract foreign
investment. It is rarely talked about
because of a mistaken assumption that
India’s engagement of Taiwan will
annoy mainland China.
Taiwan’s so-called Ministry of
Foreign Affairs announced last month
at the signing of a Memorandum of
Understanding with India on the pro-
motion of industry collaboration that
over 100 Taiwanese companies have
invested around $1.5 billion in India.
An increase in bilateral trade by 40 per
cent between January and September
2017 has made India Taiwan’s 18th
HT’s AIR for its main paper is 1.67 mil-
lion while TOI’s is 1.19 million in Delhi.
On Mumbai plus Delhi combined HT is
at 2.43 million while TOI is 2.24 million.
However the ad doesn’t give HT’s Mum-
bai readership figure separately. A quick
calculation makes it clear that HT leads
in Delhi and TOI in Mumbai.
The advert is an illustration of the
trouble with IRS 2017 or with any metric
that the ~1,262-billion Indian media and
entertainment industry deals with —
cherry-picking of data and whole ego
trip around being the number one in
this market or that segment. The politics
of getting the metric out ends up over-
riding its robustness as a measure.
In digital there still isn’t any third-
party metric that everyone accepts. It
took decades to get the TV industry to
accept and work with a robust metric
without fighting with the ratings body.
Both regulatory intervention and the
pertinent. Argentina and Brazil were
thought in the 1800s most likely to be-
come “developed”. When the 19th cent-
ury ended, most thought they would pull
South and Central America to become
“developed” in the 20th century. Even in
the mid-20th century, their per capita
incomes were about five times that of
South Korea. But Brazil is still caught in
the “middle-income trap”. Though Arg-
entina is technically a high-income econ-
omy, it remains less than “developed”.
Instead, it was the poorer countries
of East Asia (South Korea, Taiwan, Sing-
apore, Hong Kong) — about whose pro-
spects nobody seemed optimistic —
that broke through. These “flying geese”
are now “developed”. China has become
a second superpower. That is sooner
than China expected or is prepared for,
since it is not yet “developed”. Its pre-
mature rise is partly due to the doom
spiral (in geostrategic power as well as
global credibility) that Donald Trump
has triggered for the USA.
This is mind-bending when one con-
siders that in 1950 (after Partition),
India’s per capita income (PCI) was
almost the same as that of China, while
Korea and Taiwan were only 50 per cent
ahead (Angus Maddison). In 1950, India
was thought to have greater public
capacity, a more developed “polity” and
more social stability than East Asia.
Those views seem bizarre in the retro-
spect of post-Independence reality.
Whereas it was almost equal in 1950,
India’s PCI at around US$1,852 in 2017 is
(according to the IMF) more than four
times lower than China’s. It is also 13
times lower than Taiwan’s, and 16 times
lower than S Korea’s. Some smaller coun-
tries (for instance, the UAE, Kuwait) in
the Arabian Gulf have achieved the same
PCI as Singapore and Hong Kong. These
artificial, expatriate-dependent, monar-
INSIGHT
Gokhale is the only third officer in
the history of the IFS to have served
in Taipei, Hong Kong and Beijing
largest trading partner.
With such a booming economic
relationship, the Narendra Modi gov-
ernment wants to come out of the clos-
et about ties with Taiwan just as it shed
the inhibitions of earlier dispensations
in New Delhi about Israel and took
Benjamin Netanyahu into its embrace.
Gokhale will have the grasp and
confidence to initiate such a policy
change. Beijing’s ambassador in New
Delhi called on Gokhale as soon as he
returned from Taiwan to India in
January 2007 and became the Ministry
of External Affairs (MEA) point man on
China, Japan and the two Koreas. The
envoy, who evolved an excellent work-
ing relationship for the next three years
with this joint secretary for East Asia,
told Gokhale that China had absolute-
ly no problem with India’s dealings
with Taiwan as long as such engage-
ment was about business.
The choice of the new foreign sec-
retary has much to do with the way
Modi’s government has given a domes-
tic and ethnic face to foreign policy by
lavishing care on people of Indian ori-
gin abroad, addressing the consular
challenges before the MEA and sim-
plifying the passport procedures.
These policies cannot be taken for-
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fact that TV is a largely professionally
run industry helped. India’s ~303.30-bil-
lion print industry is older and is large-
ly run by owner-managers. So egos tend
to get rubbed the wrong way with even a
little movement in the readership rank-
ings. That is partly why there has been
no readership data for four years now.
The backdrop — readership is the
currency used to buy and sell ~201 billion
worth of print ad space. In 2012 the
methodology behind IRS was over-
hauled to make it tech-savvy and wider.
Its early 2014 results raised hackles all
around because of errors and allegations
of tampering. Even after a process audit
cleared the data in August 2014, pub-
lishers refused to accept it. The buzz was
that many of the English and Hindi
papers were spooked by the slowing in
readership that the figures showed.
It has taken three years to reach this
far. “When we started a lot of ground-
chies are “rich” and have first-world
infrastructure. But, they are not “devel-
oped” — when judged by ethical, social
and cultural values, quality of jurispru-
dence and delivery of justice, respect for
individual freedom, human rights, gen-
der equality, behavioural standards, and
corporate or public institutional capac-
ity, that prevail in liberal democracies
of the kind that India once aspired to be.
Neither is China “developed” although it
is much richer than India.
Between 1960 and 2000, the develop-
ing world largely embraced a faux west-
ern “democratic” model. With its success
over a generation, China offers an alter-
native. It is not an attractive one for a
pluralistic, individualistic, chaotic, undis-
ciplined (secular?) country like India,
where an authoritarian, autocratic mod-
el is unlikely to appeal widely. One can
see it being adopted in West/Central Asia
and even Central Europe, as the relative
power of the West recedes; perhaps in
some African democracies that are
messier than India’s.
Under its present dispensation, India
is transmogrifying “democracy” into its
own peculiar version of a majoritarian
ward by a proverbial mandarin with a
stiff upper lip who has spent decades in
chanceries overseas. It needs someone
who knows the workings of the gov-
ernment of India beyond diplomacy
and its endemic turf battles. Gokhale is
a rarity in the IFS, having spent 10
years of his service — 14 years on paper
— in home postings.
Most of his contemporaries have
stayed in India between three and five
years during their entire career aver-
aging about 35 years. In domestic post-
ings, Gokhale strayed from hardcore
diplomacy into the finance division,
understanding how the MEA budget is
utilised, as director for vigilance,
among others. These stints will help
him in being thrifty and in plugging
possible sources of corruption.
As a resolution of the Doklam dis-
pute acquired urgency with Modi’s
impending travel to Xiamen in Sep-
tember, the Prime Minister made his
ambassador in Beijing the “single point
of contact” for the Chinese negotiators.
So, it is now forgotten that as High
Commissioner in Kuala Lumpur, he
turned around relations with Malaysia
— which once viewed India with suspi-
cion — and instituted a bilateral strate-
gic partnership even before Singapore.
Cooperation with Malaysia on
counter-terrorism has put at least six
dreaded Khalistanis from South East
Asia in jails in Punjab. Five months
after Gokhale’s posting was formalised
he ensured the opening of an Indian
Cultural Centre in Kuala Lumpur.
Amidst the South East Asian leaders at
the Republic Day parade, relations
with Malaysia and Singapore are the
most multi-dimensional for India in
all of East Asia.
K P Nayar reported from Washington
as a foreign correspondent for 15 years
work was done to align publishers and
ensure that they participated at all
points,” says I Venkat, member, Audit
Bureau of Circulations. There are scores
of new checks and balances that make
the survey virtually tamper-proof this
time and at about 320,000 the sample is
larger. The methodology remains the
same as in 2014.
The changes in the data cuts and the
information shared with media speak
volumes of what must have happened
behind the scenes. For example, there is
an emphasis on Total Readership (read-
ership in the last one month) which is
usually three-four times more than AIR
(yesterday’s readership), the standard
used by advertisers. Going by Total
Readership there are over 385 million
Indians who read a daily newspaper
against 276 million in 2014 — an
increase of about 109 million readers or
40 per cent. However, AIR shows growth
ILLUSTRATION: BINAY SINHA
country with bouts of mobocracy, a
Hindu version of the Pakistan that it so
despises. That alone suggests that the
trajectory India is now on might not be
conducive to its becoming a developed
country. Why so?
Anecdotal evidence abounds about
what stops countries — even those with
natural resource endowments — from
generating enough “escape-velocity” to
avoid the middle-income trap. But there
is no compelling economic theory that
explains causality.
Yet, it is clear from the evidence avail-
able that a country cannot escape the
lower middle-income country (LoMiC)
trap when its governmental system per-
petuates a politics that is self-serving to
politicians by enriching them through
rent extraction; owns or interferes in large
parts of finance and business; favours
crony capitalism that buys politicians
and regulators; damages institutional
capacity with lower standards of effi-
ciency, ethics and morality; does not
invest enough in human capital through
health and education; nor in science,
technology and R&D; and cannot cope
with the consequences of growth but
> LETTERS
Drivers of growth
With reference to “Stop attacking capital”
(January 30), rather than looking for pop-
ulist reforms, the government needs to
speed up execution of economic reforms
to accelerate growth as envisaged. Private
capital flow for investment is shrinking
because of the persisting stress in the
banking sector. The proposed recapitali-
sation of public sector banks (PSB) and
related reforms are crucial in driving
growth of private investment, and there-
fore needs quick execution. Despite the
use of various measures and tools to main-
tain the asset quality and recovery of the
accumulated non-performing assets, the
results on these counts are not encourag-
ing. This dismal performance is negative-
ly impacting the health of the PSBs and
their capacity to lend.
While consumer price inflation is with-
in the targeted range, the monetary policy
committee must look to cut the policy
rates to boost private investment. Banks’
lending rates have to be reduced to aug-
ment the debt servicing capacity of India
Inc. to pave way for removing the persist-
ing stress of lenders. The government and
banking regulator should bestow more
attention on the performance of PSBs as
they are occupying a major space in the
banking sector. Banks must go after the
defaulters to speed up resolution of bad
assets to redeploy funds, besides playing
an effective role as drivers of growth.
VSK Pillai Kottayam
Seating shuffle
With reference to “Seating arrangement”
(January 30), the government seems to
have more than compensated Rahul
Gandhi, the president of the Congress par-
ty, by “accommodating” him in a front
row seat at the Central Hall of Parliament
during the President’s address to the joint
sitting of both Houses on Monday. It may
be recalled that the Congress party had
fumed over Gandhi being given a seat in
the sixth row at the Republic Day parade
held at Raj Path, New Delhi. However, it
was quite interesting to learn that L K
Advani, the founder member and former
MUMBAI | WEDNESDAY, 31 JANUARY 2018
at 0.6 per cent over 2014 to a total of 173
million readers. Look at it another way.
The Times of India has 13 million readers
(overall) if you use TR but 4.76 million by
> CHINESE
AIR. Going by AIR English newspapers
would have shown a decline and Hindi
and other languages some slowing
down, say analysts. (Note that overall,
print remains a growing, profitable
industry in India)
The other changes — three-day and
seven-day readership measures, sepa-
rate metrics for the main paper and
its variants. This gives the buyer four
ways of looking at readership. More
than two weeks after the IRS data is
out there have been no protests from
publishers, no court cases etc. The
trauma of not having a metric plus
demonetisation hit listed print players
hard. Many of them were instrumental
in pushing for these changes, to better
reflect the fragmented reality of read-
ing in India, say insiders. This time it
looks like IRS will sail.
Whether the changes mean a more
efficient metric is moot.
http://twitter.com/vanitakohlik
instead chokes on it. Modi talks of
addressing these deficiencies in India
but does too little to correct them.
India’s PCI is often projected (arith-
metically but mindlessly) to double
every 13 years if it sustains 5.5 per cent
real annual growth (7 per cent GDP
growth less population increase). But
5.5 per cent is not good enough; the
countries of East Asia did better. And as
Brazil and Argentina show, you can have
periods of rapid growth interspersed
with periods of stagnation.
Even if the doubling happens, India’s
PCI will be US $3,700 in 2030, US $7,400 in
1943 and US $14,800 in 2056, measured in
2017 dollars, not allowing for intervening
exchange rate ructions. That is barely half
of South Korea today. And, by 2056, a
high-income developed country will have
a PCI of over US $100,000. But, will India
achieve a PCI of close to US $15,000
(slightly more than Hungary or Argentina
today), and can it hope to become “devel-
oped” even four decades from now?
That seems unlikely. Growth has to
be not just sustained but accelerated. But
India’s public institutional capacity for
sound governance is eroding. Its “steel-
frame” civil services cannot even prevent
rioting over a film. Rule-making is pro-
lific, but enforcement and regulatory
capacity are overstretched. Private sector
capacity, though indisputably higher,
leaves much to be desired. Too many cor-
porate titans have feet of clay.
Given those realities, obscured by
excessive self-congratulation, the pros-
pects of India becoming more than an
LoMiC seem bleak, unless transforma-
tional change occurs soon. Modi prom-
ised it. So far, he has neither conceptu-
alised nor delivered it.
The author is chairman, Oxford
International Group
president of the Bharatiya Janata Party
(BJP), was shown due respect with a front
row seat along with former Congress
President Sonia Gandhi and former Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh seating on
either side. But another BJP veteran, Murli
Manohar Joshi, was not so lucky as he had
to contend with a seat in the third row
along with National Conference leader
Farooq Abdullah. It is a different matter
that both of them seems to have now lost
their political utility at the national level.
In any case, it could safely be assumed
that Advani would have kept mum during
the entire proceedings except reportedly
greeting Sonia Gandhi ahead of occupying
their seats. Perhaps the government’s con-
ciliatory approach towards the Congress
could also be gauged from the fact that
Ghulam Nabi Azad, the leader of Opposi-
tion in the Rajya Sabha, was seated next to
Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley.
Interestingly, one striking feature of
the joint sitting of both houses was that, at
times, the members from the Treasury
Benches could be seen thumping their
desks even before the President had com-
pleted the sentence/s which eventually
spoke high about the government’s proud
achievements. One really wonders if they
> HAMBONE
https://t.
1
WHISPERS
A lot rides on a name
Shakespeare’s exhortation — “what’s in a
name” — notwithstanding, the name of a
limited liability partnership (LLP) has stirred
controversy. The LLP firm calls itself IBBI
Insolvency Practioners LLP, which has
prompted the government to issue a
clarification. IBBI also stands for the
Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India,
the regulator for overseeing insolvency
proceedings in the country. The Ministry
of Corporate Affairs clarified that the
regulator IBBI has not authorised any
person to use its name in any form,
“whether abbreviated or otherwise”. An
official remarked what will happen if a
bank is named Reserve Bank of India or a
company wishing to list is christened Sebi.
Cauvery rigidity
Former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister
J Jayalalithaa had resorted to a legal battle
and scorned any mention of talks with
Karnataka to resolve the Cauvery water
dispute. Her successors seem less rigid.
With just a few weeks to go for the
Supreme Court verdict on the issue, current
Chief Minister and All India Anna Dravida
Munnetra Kazhagam leader Edappadi
K Palaniswami (pictured) has sought a
meeting with Karnataka Chief Minister
Siddaramaiah. The Karnataka CM, who
had to tell the neighbouring state last year
that releasing even the allocated water
would be tough due to a weak monsoon,
is undecided. He hails from the Mysuru
region and any perceived move in favour
of Tamil Nadu could hurt him politically.
Assembly elections in Karnataka are
expected in April-May this year.
Modest mistake
Former President Pranab Mukherjee
launched Congress leader P Chidambaram’s
book, Speaking Truth to Power, a collection
of his articles, on Tuesday, at the Nehru
Memorial Museum & Library in New Delhi.
In his speech, Mukherjee said Chidambaram,
who was a commerce minister, was one of
the trinity comprising then Finance Minister
Manmohan Singh, and Deputy Chairman of
Planning Commission Montek Singh
Ahluwalia, who ushered in economic
liberalisation under the stewardship of P V
Narasimha Rao. Mukherjee seldom gets his
facts wrong. But this time, possibly out of
modesty, he did. Ahluwalia was a bureaucrat
in the government then, and Mukherjee
headed the Planning Commission. Ahluwalia
helmed the Planning Commission during the
United Progressive Alliance years.
were aware from earlier of the “contents”
of the Presidential speech in Parliament.
Kumar Gupt Panchkula
Riding fiscal dragon
Pacing behind two major reforms, Budget
2018 would negotiate rougher monetary
and fiscal edges. The fiscal deficit has
spilled over with predictable revenue dips,
to be now faced with a rising crude bill. The
thrust on increased agro sector spends is
unavoidable. Substantial outlays for the
education and health sectors are called
for on pressing demands; on skill levels
imposed by modern technology and that
of keeping our prized demographic divi-
dend healthy to maintain efficiency.
With interest rates rising in leading
economies we may have little choice but to
follow suit. In any case incremental cor-
porate investments have been inelastic to
rates for many quarters. Rising key rates
will reduce existing corporate bond val-
ues and increase cost of their borrowings.
Fiscal incontinence would skew it further.
The burden of investment for growth
must revert to the government and a fiscal
overreach is inevitable. A measured fiscal
breach may not be hard to sustain as the
Economic Survey finds the economy
robust overall. Is not Trump daring to ride
the fiscal dragon to capture growth?
Ravi Narayanan Navi Mumbai
Letters can be mailed, faxed or e-mailed to:
The Editor, Business Standard
Nehru House, 4 Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg
New Delhi 110 002
Fax: (011) 23720201 · E-mail: letters@bsmail.in
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OPINION 11
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Volume XXII Number 122 ILLUSTRATION BY BINAY SINHA

MUMBAI | WEDNESDAY, 31 JANUARY 2018 Prof Svensmark argues, that the effect of the sun on cli-
mate could be “5-7 times stronger than that estimated
due to changes in the radiant output of the sun alone.”
Good news on earnings It also explains why over geological time, there have
been much larger variations in climate correlated with
changes in cosmic rays. He adds that “it also negates
Early corporate results point to recovery the idea that carbon dioxide has been controlling the
n analysis of the third quarter results (October-December 2017) of some climate on these timescales.” Thus, the Medieval Warm

A 385 companies suggests that corporate growth has rebounded to an

appreciable extent even if allowance is made for the low base created
by the demonetisation of November 2016 as well as the patchy imple-
mentation of the goods and services tax. Sales have grown a commendable 12.8 per
cent, while other income rose 28 per cent. Operating profits rose by 14.4 per cent
period around 1000 AD and the subsequent Little Ice
Age between 1300 AD and 1900 AD fit with changes in
solar activity. It also explains climate change observed
over the 20th century. Similarly, coolings and warmings
around 2 degrees Celsius have occurred repeatedly
over the last 10,000 years with variations in the Sun’s
and net profit adjusted for extraordinary items was up 23.6 per cent. Excluding activity and cosmic ray influx. While over longer time
banks and refineries from the sample, net profits (adjusted) have grown by 24.7 per periods there are much larger variations of up to 10
degrees Celsius as “the Sun and Earth travel through
cent, which is no mean achievement. The revival is spread across several sectors.

Climate change
the Galaxy visiting regions with varying numbers of
Also noteworthy are the improvements in the automobile ancillaries sec- exploding stars”. Svensmark concludes that ‘finally
tor; for the 12 companies that have reported results, net profit is up 75 per cent we have the last piece of the puzzle explaining how par-
and net sales are up 24 per cent. Most automobile majors (Maruti Suzuki being ticles from space affect climate on Earth. It gives an
the exception) have not yet reported results but an improved performance by oth- understanding of how changes caused by solar activ-

redux
er automobile manufacturers is expected. This will be significant as cars and two- ity or by supernova activity can change climate”. Surely
with this confirmation of the cosmoclimatology theo-
wheelers equate to big-ticket consumption. Fast-moving consumer goods com-
ry a Nobel Prize in physics for Svensmark and his asso-
panies, which represent low-ticket consumption, have also seen improvement; ciates cannot be far off, and with that the end of the
their net profit is up 37 per cent and sales are up 10 per cent. Another hearten- hubristic theory of anthropogenic CO2 generated cli-
ing performance came from the capital goods sector where sales rose by 19 per India should turn away from the Paris accord as latest research shows mate change.
cent and net profit by 33 per cent. This might just indicate some sort of revival Where does this leave India’s adherence to the
in the investment climate and there are early signs of revival in core industries.
particles from space, and not human activity, affect climate on Earth Paris climate change accord and its energy policy?
The Narendra Modi government seems to be planning
The cement sector saw interesting results. Of the eight companies in the list,
ver the years this column has been supporting gasses”, Briefing Paper no. 3, www.thegwpf.org). For a large increase in wind and solar power to supple-
UltraTech Cement, saw profits falling by 23 per cent but the other seven have seen
a rise in net profit by a combined 89 per cent. There is a similar skew in the steel
industry. Three companies reported massive losses, but if they are removed from
O the theory of ‘cosmoclimatology’ propounded
by Danish physicist Henrik Svensmark and
his associates for climate change, over the alterna-
the oceans are the primary sinks as well as emitters of
CO2. Given their vastness relative to the earth’s surface,
it takes a long time for the ocean to warm from rises in
ment coal-generated electricity to reduce India’s incre-
mental CO2 emissions from fulfilling its electoral
promise of electrifying every village by 2022. However,
the sample, net profit grew 40 per cent for the other 14 even as revenues for all tive theory of anthropogenic CO2 (carbon dioxide) terrestrial temperatures (and vice versa), hence the as Rupert Darwall notes (“India’s problem with renew-
17 companies have increased by 23 per cent. Offtake in cement and steel is emissions of the International Panel on Climate lag between temperature and CO2 levels. able substitutes for dependable coal-generated power”
Change (IPCC) and adopted by the world’s great and The missing piece in the cosmoclimatology the- www.wsj.com, June 22, 2017), “wind and solar energy
heavily driven by construction, which, in turn, is driven by infrastructure proj-
good on which various international accords like that ory was the physical link between cosmic rays and are intermittent and therefore not reliable substitutes
ect activity. Construction majors and infrastructure developers have not yet signed in Paris are based. (See my “Climate vs change: cloud formation. The first confirmation of the basic for dependable coal-generated power”. This means
reported results but there are enough reasons to be optimistic there as well. Sun and the stars vs CO2”, June 19, 2007). To recapit- hypothesis that “ions [cosmic rays] are fundamental that thermal-generating capacity will still be needed.
However, two erstwhile performers, which have traditionally driven exports, ulate, the cosmoclimatology theory for the nucleation of aerosols [tiny But, if the grid has increasing amounts of intermittent
pharmaceuticals and software, continue to deliver results under par. The infor- states that climate is controlled by liquid or solid particles that provide solar and wind energy, the thermal energy component
mation technology industry (28 companies) reported 5.5 per cent revenue growth low cloud cover, which when wide- a nucleus around which droplets can needed as a backup will not be working to full capac-
spread has a cooling effect by reflect- form from water vapour in the air]” ity, and hence will be operating less efficiently than if
and 7.8 per cent profit growth. The pharmaceuticals industry (18 companies) saw
ing solar energy back into space and was confirmed by the CLOUD exper- it were being fully utilised instead of the solar and
9 per cent revenue growth, while net profit shrank by 10 per cent. The telecom sec- vice versa. These low clouds, in turn, iment at CERN — the particle physics wind sources of energy on the grid. Moreover, as these
tor remains under pressure, with Bharti Airtel reporting a 5.6 per cent reduction are formed when sub-atomic parti- laboratory in 2011. (See Kirby et al, renewables have high fixed costs and zero marginal
in net profit and Idea Cellular’s losses jumping from ~3.8 billion to ~12.8 billion. cles called cosmic rays, emitted by Nature, (2011), 476, 429-433: and costs, the wholesale price of the electricity they gen-
Overall, corporate results certainly show an encouraging trend, though exploding stars, combine with water “The cosmic ray/Cloud seeding erate will tend towards zero. This means that the elec-
many sectors, particularly those dominated by public sector undertakings vapour rising from the oceans. The hypothesis is converging with reali- tricity companies will increasingly find it unprofitable
constant bombardment of the plan- ty”, www.thegwpf.org) to invest in and maintain the underutilised thermal
such as banking and oil refining, are under-represented in this sample. If those et by cosmic rays is modulated by DEEPAK LAL But there was still a problem with capacity needed to compensate for the indetermina-
results are in line with expectations, these would indicate the corporate sec- the solar wind, which when it is blow- the hypothesis. It was that, even if as cy of renewable supply. In Germany which made a
tor is indeed pulling out of a trough. And that would gel with projections that ing prevents cosmic rays from reach- the CLOUD experiment showed ions massive switch to renewables, “in the seven years
economic growth will improve through 2018-19. The Economic Survey 2017- ing the earth and creating low clouds. The solar wind helped aerosols to form and become stable against from December 2007, three German utilities saw the
18, released on Monday, said that sustaining current stock valuations in India in turn is caused by the varying sunspot activity of the evaporation — a process called nucleation — these destruction of $76.77 billion in shareholder value.
required “future earnings performance to rise to meet still high expecta- sun. When, as recently, sunspot activity decreases we small aerosols “need to grow nearly a million times in Wholesale electricity prices in India are already plung-
get the global ‘cooling’ observed during the recent mass in order to have an effect on cloud formation.” ing. Over the past nine years, thermal generating
tions”. The third quarter results so far may be a relief on that count as well. ‘pause’ in global warming. The latest research by Svensmark and his associates capacity utilisation has fallen to 60 per cent from 79
Furthermore, as noted by the Princeton physicist (reported in H Svensmark et al. “Increased ionisation per cent.” So over time as renewables expand on the

Beyond weather gods William Happer (see my column “Clouds of Climate

Policy missteps to blame for farmers’ plight
t a time when agriculture is passing through a bad patch, as reflected
Change”, September 2011), the millennial ‘ice core’
records of the correlation between CO2 and tempera-
ture show “that changes in temperature preceded
changes in CO2 levels, so that CO2 levels were an effect
supports growth of aerosols into cloud condensation
nuclei” Nature Communications 2017; 8(1)) shows “both
theoretically and empirically and experimentally, how
interactions between ions and aerosols can accelerate
the growth by adding material to the small aerosols and
Indian grid, its electricity companies will find costs ris-
ing and the profits they need to expand the grid falling,
thereby retarding the access of Indians to cheap and
reliable power. What India needs to do is turn away
from the Paris accord (based on the false CO2 theory

A
in widespread rural distress, the prognosis of the 2017-18 Economic
Survey of a likely further drop in farm incomes due to climate change
is a cause for disquiet. Based on analysis of climatic trends, the Survey
has concluded that agricultural incomes could dip in the medium run by 15-18
per cent on average and up to 20-25 per cent in unirrigated areas, which comprise
over half the farmland. This translates into an income loss of over ~3,600 per year
for hard-pressed farm households. Yet, efforts to promote climate-resilient agri-
culture and adapt existing farm practices to steadily altering weather condi-
tions have been rather lax. The Survey, thus, rightly stresses the need for mitigating
the vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change through the rapid exten-
sion of efficient drip and sprinkler irrigation technologies and replacing untar-
geted subsidies in power and fertilisers by direct income support.
Apart from climate change, a host of other factors — referred to only in pass-
ing in the Survey — have contributed to aggravating farmers’ woes. The signif-
icant among these include unabated shrinking of land holdings, persistent
degradation of vital natural resources (such as land and water), lack of adequate
diversification of farming towards high-value agriculture, and the rural youths’
disinterest in farming. The effects of these factors on the performance of agri-
culture are already discernible. As pointed out in the Survey, the real agricultural
gross domestic product (GDP) and real agricultural revenues have remained
almost static in the past four years. Though the Survey seeks to hold two con-
secutive poor monsoons partly responsible for this, the reality is otherwise. Rural
distress was not as conspicuous during the back-to-back drought years of 2014
and 2015 as in the subsequent couple of years of bumper harvests.
Clearly, other factors, including misguided government policies, especially
those concerning agricultural pricing, have also played a major role in worsening
the farm sector’s plight. The government’s price management, in particular, has
been focused more on containing food inflation for the benefit of consumers
than in safeguarding farmers’ interests. The fact that the wholesale prices of most
farm commodities have been ruling below the official floor prices bears this out.
The need, therefore, is to strike a fine balance between the interests of consumers
and producers. It requires better farm marketing systems, free of existing ineffi-
ciencies and deficiencies of the markets run by the Agricultural Produce Marketing
Committee. The dominance of intermediaries and cartels in agricultural trade
needs to be restrained to give way to fair, transparent and competitive marketing.
The Survey applauds the government’s commitment to double farmers’
incomes by 2022. But for this, the agriculture sector needs to grow at a rate sev-
eral times higher than the 2.1 per cent projected for 2017-18. The Survey has, there-
fore, done well to counsel the government to provide opportunities to farmers
to diversify their income generating avenues and mitigate production as well
price risks by incorporating agriculture’s allied sectors like livestock and fisheries
in farming systems. Equally imperative is the need for greater deployment of sci-
ence and technology in agriculture. This requires a substantial step-up in invest-
ment in agricultural research and, more so, in the field of technology transfer.
Otherwise, rejuvenation of the farm sector may remain elusive.
of temperature changes. Much of this was probably due thereby help them survive to become cloud conden- of climate change) as the US has done, and join it in co-
to outgassing of CO2 from the warming oceans or the sation nuclei” (David Whitehouse: “Cosmic Rays- operating to build the clean-coal energy infrastructure
reverse in cooling” (“The truth about greenhouse Climate Link Found”, www.thegwpf.com). This implies, that India needs.
Mr Jaitley: A pragmatist, not a fiscal hawk
he pre-Budget Economic Survey for 2017-18, moderate increase in indirect taxes, a large subsidy gered road map for achieving the fiscal consolidation
T tabled in Parliament early this week, has giv- burden and not so encouraging tax buoyancy, the tar-
en rise to speculation about the fiscal consol- get of 4.1 per cent fiscal deficit is indeed daunting.”
idation stance that Finance Minister Arun Jaitley But he sprang a pleasant surprise on everyone by
targets he had announced in July 2014.
Instead of taking two years to reach a deficit level
of 3 per cent by 2016-17, he decided to achieve the
may adopt in his Budget for 2018-19, to be presented adding that though the target appeared difficult, he same numbers over a period of three years. Thus, the
on February 1. had decided to accept this target as a challenge. “One revised fiscal deficit targets were: 3.9 per cent for 2015-
The Survey describes fiscal expansion as one of fails only when one stops trying,” he added. Not only 16, 3.5 per cent for 2016-17 and 3 per cent for 2017-18.
the pitfalls the government should avoid next year. At did he embrace a target set by his predecessor, he The reason he cited for changing the road map is sig-
the same time, it warns against “overly ambitious” tar- even outlined a fiscal consolidation road map that did nificant. “With the economy improving, the pressure
gets for fiscal consolidation in a pre-election year as look quite ambitious under those circumstances. Oil for accelerated fiscal consolidation too has decreased,”
these may carry the risk of not being realised. Thus, prices were still ruling at elevated levels, inflation he reasoned, but added that the additional fiscal space
it recommends pragmatism and a middle path by was yet to be tamed and the magnitude of the stressed gained by postponing the target year would be used for
pursuing “a modest consolidation that credibly sig- assets mess was not entirely assessed. Yet, he funding infrastructure investments.
nals a return to the path of gradual but steady fiscal announced that he would aim at a fiscal deficit of In his third Budget, in February 2016, Mr Jaitley
deficit reduction”. 3.6 per cent of GDP for 2015-16 and changed his tone somewhat. That year saw a big debate
A return to the path of fiscal 3 per cent for 2016-17. over the need for being less aggressive on fiscal con-
deficit reduction next year could Not that Mr Jaitley was setting a solidation. He said: “I have weighed the policy options
imply that the current year’s target new direction for fiscal deficits. and decided that prudence lies in adhering to the fis-
of 3.2 per cent of gross domestic After reaching a high of 5.8 per cent cal targets.” Thus, the revised fiscal deficit for 2015-16
product (GDP) could be breached of GDP in 2011-12, the Centre’s fiscal was retained at the targeted level of 3.9 per cent and the
and a small reduction in the deficit deficit began showing a declining target for 2016-17 was set at 3.5 per cent of GDP. A
level for 2018-19 could be projected. trend to reach 4.9 per cent in 2012- promise was also made that while doing so, the devel-
Another interpretation is that Mr 13 and further down to 4.4 per cent opment agenda would not be compromised. But there
Jaitley may still surprise everyone in 2013-14 — and all this during the was no mention of the fiscal deficit target of 3 per cent
by presenting for 2017-18 a revised rule of the United Progressive in 2017-18 as indicated in his earlier road map.
fiscal deficit number that is no
more than what he had proposed a
NEW DELHI DIARY Alliance and without the benefit of
lower oil prices. The following three
Mr Jaitley’s fourth Budget, presented in February
2017, showed yet another change in his approach to fis-
year ago. After all, the Survey is a A K BHATTACHARYA years, under the National cal consolidation. He did not consider it necessary to
document produced by the chief Democratic Alliance with Mr invoke the escape clause provided by the FRBM (Fiscal
economic advisor, but the Budget Jaitley as the finance minister, saw Responsibility and Budget Management) Review
always carries the stamp of the finance minister. the deficit decline to 4.1 per cent of GDP in 2014-15, 3.9 Committee to deviate from the target by half a percent-
So, what has been the finance minister’s track per cent in 2015-16 and 3.5 per cent in 2016-17. Of course, age point in the event of far-reaching structural reforms
record on fiscal consolidation in the last four years? lower oil prices helped, but the declining trend was a with unanticipated fiscal implications. Instead, recog-
How serious has he been in adhering to fiscal deficit clear indication that Mr Jaitley was keen to be seen as nising the need for higher public investment, he relaxed
targets? And how consistent has he been in adopting a finance minister, who believed in fiscal consolidation. the target for 2017-18 to 3.2 per cent of GDP and reaffirmed
the principles of fiscal consolidation? That, however, was not a complete picture of the his commitment to reach 3 per cent in 2018-19.
In July 2014, Mr Jaitley presented his first Budget finance minister. The reality was more nuanced. In the last four years, Mr Jaitley has once accepted his
and had every reason to set his own target, departing Presenting his second Budget in February 2015, Mr predecessor’s difficult deficit reduction target. On one
from what his predecessor, Palaniappan Jaitley recognised the limits of ambition, thanks to occasion, he resisted pressure on him to be less aggres-
Chidambaram, had prescribed in his interim Budget pressures on him to increase public investment and sive on fiscal consolidation. And on two occasions, he
presented before the elections in May 2014. Mr Jaitley the likely burden of the recommendations of the relaxed the target dates in his own fiscal consolidation
said: “My predecessor has set up a very difficult task Seventh Central Pay Commission. “Rushing into or road map. Clearly, Mr Jaitley is not a fiscal hawk. He is a
of reducing fiscal deficit to 4.1 per cent of GDP in the insisting on, a pre-set timetable for fiscal consolida- pragmatist. If the situation demands, he won’t hesitate
current year. Considering that we had two years of low tion pro-cyclically would, in my opinion, not be pro- to revise the fiscal consolidation road map yet again. Will
GDP growth, an almost static industrial growth, a growth,” he said before announcing a more stag- he do it? On February 1, you will get the answer.

Explaining Godse history of India’s struggle for

BOOK REVIEW
C P BHAMBHRI
This monograph centers on the
150-paragraph statement read out by
Nathuram Godse on November 8, 1948 at
his defence before the trial judges.
Koenraad Elst, a Belgian academic
specialising in Sinology and Indology, has
used the statement to dissect Godse’s
political and ideological defence in six
chapters that also assess Mahatma
Gandhi’s political legacy.
As the author explains, “The fact that he
[Godse] murdered the Mahatma eclipsed
every other fact in his… long and detailed
statement. We hope that this study will
enable the readers to see Godse with their
own eyes rather through the eyes of those
who have thus far monopolised the
discourse on the Mahatma murder.”
The chapter headings offer some clues
to the tenor of the analysis. Thus: (i) The
Murder of Mahatma Gandhi and its
Consequence; (ii) Nathuram Godse’s
Background; (iii) Critique of Gandhi’s
policies; (iv) Gandhi’s Responsibility for
Partition; (v) Godse’s Verdict on Gandhi;
and (vi) Other Hindu Voices on Gandhi.
None of these headings convey the
venomous hatred that Godse sustained
against Gandhi’s politics and public beliefs.
It is necessary to flag upfront that the
author suffers from Islamophobia, which
encourages him to assess Godse’s defence
with more sympathy than objectivity.
Mr Elst’s mission appears to be to
project Godse’s rationale for his actions. He
appears to ignore the fact that Godse’s
political justification for the assassination
of Gandhi is the direct consequence of his
biased and prejudiced reading of the
independence, and Gandhi’s leadership of
it, starting from the non-cooperation
movement and support for the Khilafat
movement till January 30, 1948, when he
was assassinated 70 years ago.
It was, in essence, Godse’s politics
versus Gandhi’s politics that motivated
Godse to kill Gandhi. There was no meeting
ground between these two actors.
Godse was hostile to Gandhi because
he perceived him as a “pro-Muslim”
leader. As a believer in the concept of
Akhand Bharat, he saw Gandhi’s
“appeasement” of Muslims as being
responsible for partition. Mr Elst observes,
“Godse was in fact, willing to consider
compromises if these were required by the
goal of an independent and united India.”
This is hard to square with paragraph 69 of
Godse’s statement that “the accumulating
provocation of 32 years culminating in his
last pro-Muslim fast goaded me to the
conclusion that the existence of Gandhiji
should be brought to an end
immediately”. Gandhi’s last fast that so
goaded Godse was undertaken in January
1948 for the safety of Delhi’s Muslims who
were targeted by Hindu communalists
during the post-Partition riots.
This monograph and Godse’s defence
statement of 1948 are must-reads for
anyone who wants to understand the true
ideology and politics of Hindu
communalists. Both amply emphasise
that Godse is levelling similar allegations
against Gandhi as the Hindu Rashtriya
Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and its
political affiliate Jana Sangh/ Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) have been making
against the Congress party. It is, in fact,
disingenuous for the present leadership
of the RSS and the BJP to disown Godse
and appropriate Gandhi.
Indeed, Godse’s ideological and
political background in the RSS and the
Hindu Mahasabha cannot be repudiated.
In his 1969 book The Jana Sangh: A
Biography of an Indian Party Craig Baxter
provides impeccable evidence that
Godse “joined the RSS and worked for it”.
Later, however, “to pursue political
activities he joined the Hindu
Mahasabha maybe because the RSS
claimed and pretended at that time that it
was a ‘cultural organisation’ obviously for
strengthening the Hindus.”
“It remains true, moreover, that the RSS
had professed a very negative opinion of
the Mahatma’s failed policy of “Hindu-
Muslim unity,” Mr Baxter added. “Much of
Godse’s speech consisted of comments
which Hindu activists of any affiliation,
including the Hindu RSS, have been
making ever since the Mahatma’s
involvement in the Pan-Islamist Khilafat
movement of 1920-21”.
Godse did not only oppose Gandhi’s
project of Hindu-Muslim unity, but also
found inconsistencies in Gandhi’s doctrine
and praxis of “non-violence and truth”.
Godse juxtaposed Gandhi’s non-violence
against Hindu heroes who made sacrifices
in defence of the motherland. He was an
ardent supporter of V D Savarkar’s progra-
mme of militarising Hindus to defend
“Bharatmata” or the Hindu motherland.
The last part of Godse’ statement
makes a significant observation about
himself: “If devotion to one’s country
amounts to a sin, I admit, I have
committed that sin”. The real moral of the
story is that religious fanatics who are
trained to obey blindly their ideological
beliefs cannot think rationally.
On Gandhi, in spite of his fundamental
differences, it is striking that Godse in his
final statement stated, “…I shall bow in
respect of the service done by Gandhi to the
country…” The author who is sympathetic
to Godse’s ideology and politics, also
admits, “It cannot be denied that the
Congress movement under Gandhi’s
leadership had contributed substantially
to the achievement of freedom.”
This book is educative because thinkers
like Godse are growing in number and this
ideology of targeting communities has to
be opposed vehemently in the interests of
preserving the founding principles of
Indian democracy. Hindu majority rule
negates the principles of democracy based
on the equality of citizenship. In that sense,
this monograph offers important lessons
from the past.
WHY I KILLED THE MAHATMA
Uncovering Godse’s Defence
Koenraad Elst
Rupa
251 pages; ~495