1. Assume 20% of computer chips coming off of an assembly line are defective. The chips are independent. (.) First, suppose a small batch has 10 chips. (i) Let X be the number of chips in the small batch that are defective. What is Im(X)? (Recall that Im(X) is the sample space, or the possible values of X.) (2 pts.) Lm (X)= 12 br). . ,10f (ii.) What is the distribution of X? Give the name of the distribution and the value(s) of parameter(s). What is EX]? (4 pts.) Km Binornial 10) 2) EX = (0C2) <2 \K is Khe nurnber of successes th (0 va Bermerlls prials. A Success Occurs TE a chip IS defect (iii.) What is the probability that no more than 2 chips in the batch are defective? (4 pts.) PKE2) = Bin? OS O48(b.) A large batch has 400 chips. As in part (a), assume 20% of the chips are defective. Let Y be the number of defective chips in the large batch. (i.) Using the Central Limit Theorem, approximate the probability that more than 88 chips in the large batch are defective. (10 pts.) : Yn Brnveatat (400 ) .?) CLT DY RN (F002), onl. 2¥..9)) vO ey PUY 88) = (-(Yé 98) cr | -8( UF) - |-3( 2 | = 84 2 454 (ii.) Using the Central Limit Theorem, find a number d such that the probability that there are more than d defective chips in the large batch is only 2.5% (approxi- mately). (5 pts.) sik PY>A) ©. 018 > PLYSa) = .42o Cy 1a) GQ, 2 432) Ss > A-8° “ST BCS) ele » dA = WIA) +%0 = 18.8 (16 onss|(c.) Now, suppose a manufacturer inspects computer chips until he finds the first defective chip. Let Z be the mumber of chips the manufacturer inspects until he finds the first defective chip (including the one that is defective). Continue to assume that 20% of the chips are defective. (i.) What is the distribution of Z? State the name of the distribution and the value(s) of parameter(s). What is £[Z]? (6 pts.) Z ~ Geomercic( p= 2) e(tlet ZY & Pre dak on which Le isk success occurs aa tid Burmniti Has. A success 9 in & Seven Mnaggens “ih @ Cp duce Fe. (d.) The manufacturer can not afford to inspect every chip. When he selects a chip, he decides if he will inspect that chip by randomly generating a Bernoulli random variable with a success probability of p = .7. If the Bernoulli random variable is a 1 (a success), ‘then the manufacturer inspects the chip. Otherwise, he does not inspect the chip. i.) Suppose U = .78 is a realization from a standard uniform distribution. Explain how you can use this value of U to generate a Bernoulli random variable W’ with a success probability of p = .7. What value of W’ do you obtain? Does the manufacturer decide to inspect the chip based on this value of W? (4 pts.) Two Corrte svluhing are as flag) | CH Rate: El ees wes? t 08s wf? Hy s4808| “1 pa asus ty os USE qos, ee ». Thr We Berneali(ps -2) Sing F973) Wo. Cie F498) WzO. The (manu bauer Ingpeeks Pre CANAD The morllputctr APs A | Trspat PL Oips2. A continuous random variable X has the probability density function (pdf) _fee-2) ifo ¢(2% LA “ ‘ 2t(4-2) ux S| a(ee4| \ (b.) What is E[X]? (If you were unable to answer part (a.), you may leave your answer in terms of the unknown constant C.) (4 pts.) aX] 1: her ve = [xb(r- dx o («- Aaxaiv ese et(c.) What is P(X > 1)? (4 pts.) | ere 9X! fir E>0, Re | eco 2 PCXS4) rot) | . 2 (hax z Ba | “| as v 4 | 4 ete yo» 2 (de La : Bix 2 t- $e PKA) 2 Arta ayshaeed frase | PC XS = 1-Pc xsl) : -f 21-8, 2 FUG) = q DTG $V (d.) As it turns out, Var(X) = 3. Suppose X1,..., Xioo ~ iid with pdf f(x). Let Si00 = Xi +... + Xivo What is the approximate distribution of Sioo? Give the name of the distribution and the value(s) of parameter(s). (If you were unable to answer part (b), you may write your answer in terms of 4 = E|X].) (4 pts.) CLT > Siop ONC Ais, wm) My = ElSu\ = love] = 2 0D Ger = Ves (sur) z [d0Ve(X) = a3. Let X be the height of a plant in garden A. Assume X ~ Normal(y = 71 cm,a? = 6.25 em?) (a) What is P(X < 72)? (5 pts.) (b.) Let ¥ be the height of a plant in garden B. Assume Y ~ Normal( = 65 cm,o? = 2.75 cm). ‘The heights of plants in the two gardens are independent. What is the probability that a plant from garden A is taller than a plant from garden B? In other words, compute P(X > Y). (Hint: P(X > Y) = P(X ~Y > 0). It may help to define a random variable D = X ~Y.) (7 pts.) t B= XY. RANCH, & Mae El] = €X\- GY]. W-65 < bum T= Va (dy gvorl) + Va(i) 2 2.95 44.25 bin Vndpeondint, = Tonm P( doo) = 1-P(DS0) YT EC RS) - 140) \4, Let Y be the lifetime (in years) of a flashlight, (The lifetime is the number of years until the flashlight stops working.) Assume Y ~ Exponential(\ = .4). Recall that the CDF (cumulative distribution function) of Y is l-e ify>0 sw-{5 eee (a.) What is the probability that the lifetime of a flashlight is less than or equal to 5 years? (3 pts.) PIYES) = Rls) = I- el-ct = £ef Qn ts) (b.) What is the expected lifetime of a flashlight? (3 pts.) et] -4- Le ea (c.) Suppose U = .45 is a realization of a standard uniform random variable. Use this value of U to generate Y ~ Exponential(A = .4). What value of Y do you obtain? (pts) Traverse method Lr Vhabnwas tv.'s ! Us (eel salve foe Yo? Plugin ve HE Dts 1-U t tn(.°S) l y? % ev thaltu) 1 : > tts bolt) 2 (d.) Suppose you have 2 flashlights. Let Yj and Y» be the Nfetimes OP The two flashlights. Assume Yj and ¥, are iid Exponential r.v.’s with A= 4. You will buy a new flashlight, when both flashlights stop working. Then, X = ¥; + Yo is the time when you buy a new flashlight. What is the distribution of X? Give the name of the distribution and the value(s) of parameter(s). When do you expect to have to buy a new flashlight? (4 pts.) By definition of fre Eclany farm Kn Selang( ke ty 42.4). EX] = & 26 yn. (ne ered 2 tra +400 \ 8 2 ys tass95. Let X be the number of accidents at intersection A in a month. Assume X ~ Poisson(A = 2). (a.) What is B[X}? Compte P(X > 4). (5 pts.) ex} zea PXE4) = [-POKE) : \- Pole) @ | 88 = 193 (b.) Let Z be the number of accidents at a different intersection, called intersec- tion B, in a month. Assume Z ~ Poisson(A = 1). The two intersections are independent. (So, Z is independent of X). Given that a total of 4 ac- cidents occurred at the two intersections combined in a month, compute the conditional probability that exactly one accident occurred at intersection A. In other words, you are to compute aA PKa112+K=9 (Hint: Remember the additivity property of the Poisson distribution: If X ~ Poisson(A,) and W ~ Poisson(A,.), then X + W ~ Poisson(Az + Ax)) (3 pts.). Xe < HKell2 4x 28) (5 MeL eed Bek) a wy PC 24K ed) Geos! A Xz and B= 9) poh. = re4X <4) 4 vine : 5 ) PxeNRCe } TeK loom ( 4D 23 P( 24K 4) (r)(r) ny 3 ee a UE GA om 3 cf = ( 4 a