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1. Basic elements
Beta 0.56
Premium 0.1015
Risk Free 0.02
D/(D+E) 0.0384615385
E/(E+D) 0.8196721311
We do not take into account the preferred stock
2. DCF
Actual
3. Terminal value
a. Gordon
NPV 6,401,187.63
b. Thomson Reuters
EV (ebitda) 3,626,219.41
EV (ebi tda)
EV (ebit) 3,679,199.33
FCF 6,318,633.66
0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000 6000000 700
EV (ebi tda)
Adjustment
Exit Multiple 4,541,350.80
preferred stock)
Forecast
summary
Multiples
Metrics
Growth
2018 2019 2020 2021
EBITDA 4.29% 3.12% 3.00% 3.00%
EBIT 6.11% 5.52% 4% 3.50%
Pre-Tax Pro 8.41% 6.10% 5% 4.00%
Net Incom 7.97% 4.54% 4% 3.50%
FCF Yield 9.06% 6.63%
EPS - Repo 13.07% -100.00%
2021
EBIT and EBITDA
9.5302747979 4000
13.0985230083 3500
14.7142727527 3000
1.2291950365
2500
3.1645040309
2000
6.2114359957
2.4344876346 1500
9.0906856657 1000
2.2887933418 500
6.9085390578
0
14.3570311912 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
0
EBITDA EBIT
3500
3000
2021
2500
3,804.95
2,808.87 2000
2,422.28 1500
2,031.70 1000
500
0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
EBIT
OWTH EQUATION
OWTH EQUATION
3.12%
2019
Loga ri thmi c (EBITDA)
Loga ri thmi c (EBIT)
Estimates - Thomson Reuters
Estimates summary
2,267.31
-
Cash flow statement
Fiscal year is January-December. All values USD Millions. 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012
Net Income before Extraordinaries 10,217 3,688 2,940 1,500 53
Net Income Growth 177.03% 25.44% 96.00% 2730.19% -
Deferred Taxes & Investment Tax Credit -457 -795 -210 -37 -186
Accounts Payable 81 35 3 38 -1
Investing Activities
Net Investing Cash Flow / Sales -42.47% -52.62% -47.43% -33.33% -138.02%
Financing Activities
Net Financing Cash Flow / Sales -1.12% 8.82% 12.60% -8.47% 123.46%
Ratios calcl
s/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield
2013 2012
0.64 0.64
10.19% 9.01%
0.82 0.85
2.40 2.49
Beta Estimation
Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite 2.00%
Expected rate of return on market portfolio 12.95%
Extracts
Systematic risk (β) of Facebook's common stock 0.68 (stock analysis portfolio)
0.56 (yahoo finance)
0.59 (Reuters)
Average 0.61
Others
VarianceFB 138.63
VarianceS&P 500 8.25
CovarianceFB, S&P 500 5.6
Correlation CoefficientFB, S&P 5001 0.6787878788
βFB2 0.6787878788
(stock analysis portfolio)
(yahoo finance)
Peers - key metrics
Market Ca
1000.00
939.85
898.35
900.00
800.00
728.51
700.00
646.06 642.30
595.16
600.00
531.12
501.6
500.00
400.00
300.00
199.86
194.12
200.00
97.80 89.46
100.00
0.00
Ma rke
Sector medi an
Sector avera ge (Mean)
Fa cebook Inc
0 20 40
EBITDA
EBITDA Operatinng profit Net Income Enterprise Value
728.51
646.06 642.30
624.72
595.16
531.10
501.67
254.20
209.43217.61 204.50195.78
180.30 174.35
161.70158.57
143.62 140.57
Ma rket Ca p Enterpri s e Va l ue
Other metrics
Other metrics
0 40 60 80 100
Component Details
Technology
FB.O FB.O F12M
F12M T12M Average
EV/Sales 5 9.2 12.6 3.3
EV/EBITDA 30 14.9 19.5 23.9
P/E 25 27.5 31.9 0.1
Price/Cash Flow 30 19.7 24.8 45.7
Price/Book 13 5.7 6.1 10.1
Buyback Yield 24 0.8%
Growth
5 Yr Hist
Name Growth Last FY =>
FB.O - Earning Per Share - $ 66.0% 4.23 69.1%
Software & IT Services Average 21.4% 4.4%
Software & IT Services Median 11.5% 9.5%
FB.O - Revenue - $ 49.4% 27,638.00 45.8%
Software & IT Services Average 20.2% 22.6%
Software & IT Services Median 9.2% 9.4%
Software & IT Software & IT
Technology Services Software & IT Services Software & IT
Technology T12M Technology F12M Services T12M Services
F12M Median Average T12M Median Average F12M Median Average T12M Median
2.4 183.5 2.7 3.8 3.0 239.4 3.3
11.6 -58.4 8.2 34.2 14.5 -42.9 7.2
18.1 -12.6 0.0 2.4 20.8 -31.4 -0.4
17.8 527.9 5.6 62.8 21.4 418.0 0.0
3.7 -32.2 2.2 14.8 5.0 -51.8 2.4
18.2% 2.3% 22.0% 2.9%
NTM/LTM
This FY => Next FY YoY Growth Growth PEG NTM LTG Mean
5.90 13.9% 6.72 61.7% 17.3% 1.03 26.7%
41.9% 17.4% 90.6% 6.14 16.6%
17.3% 7.5% 16.5% 1.63 16.0%
40,284.47 33.6% 53,824.12 42.7% 34.5%
27.2% 14.6% 15.8%
11.0% 9.7% 9.6%
Facebook Inc., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast
USD $ in millions, except per share data
Present
FCFE(t)
Year Value value at
or TV(t)
9.65%
0 FCFE(0) 11,305
1 FCFE(1) 12,296 11,214
2 FCFE(2) 13,330 11,088
3 FCFE(3) 14,404 10,927
4 FCFE(4) 15,515 10,734
5 FCFE(5) 16,657 10,511
5 TV(5)
Facebook's 782,570 493,810
common
stock 548,283
Facebook's common
stock (per share) $188.69
Current share price $182.78
Thomson Reuters Projections
SOURCE ; REUTERS
2016
Sales (adverti 27,638.00
Net income 10,217 3,688
Add: Income tax expense 2,301
Earnings before tax (EBT) 12,518
Add: Interest expense 10
Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) 12,528
Add: Depreciation and amortization 2,342
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) 14870
2015 2014 2013 2012
2,940 1,500 53
2,506 1,970 1,254 441
6,194 4,910 2,754 494
23 23 56 51
6,217 4,933 2,810 545
1,945 1,243 1,011 649
8,162 6,176 3,821 1,194
Avg. Revenue per Customer USD 15.98 33.61%
Gross Margin 88.10% 2.21%
Operating Margin 51.66% 7.83%
Net Margin 48.51% 21.78%
Asset Turnover 0.14 16.01%
ROE 7.54% 3.90%
Debt/Equity 0.00% -0.26%
YoY USD --
4Q 71.11%
4Q 4.45%
4Q 1.85%
4Q 0.19
4Q 0.99%
4Q 0.05%