For only the 4th time since 1999 (and for the first time since Lehman), South

Korea's economy unexpectedly shrank in Q4 (contracting 0.4% QoQ against

expectations of 0.1% expansion), busting the global-synchronized-growth narrative.

Only two analysts forecast the possibility of a contraction...

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180124_SK1_0.jpg

Government spending rose 0.5% QoQ, and while private consumption rose 1.09% QoQ,
construction investment tumbled 3.8% QoQ

Exports were the biggest driver - plunging 5.4% QoQ - the biggest drop since
1985...

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180124_SK4.jpg

As Goldman notes, Korea's 2017 Q4 GDP contracted 0.2% quarter on quarter

(seasonally adjusted), slowing sharply from 1.5% in Q3 and falling for the first
time in nine years. The figure was well below consensus and as well as our
expectations. Main points:

1. Korea's 2017 Q4 GDP contracted 0.2% quarter on quarter (seasonally

adjusted), slowing sharply from a high base of 1.5% in Q3 and recording the first
sequential decline in nine years. The figure was well below expectations. In year-
on-year terms, growth was lowered to 3.0% from 3.8% in Q3.

2. Domestic demand's total contribution to sequential GDP growth moderated to

0.6pp, from 0.8pp in the previous quarter. By expenditure, final consumption
(including both private and government) continued solid growth of 0.9% qoq sa,
helped by a re-acceleration in private consumption to 1.0%. Fixed investment
declined 2.0% qoq sa, the first decline in three years. Facilities investment fell
0.6% qoq sa, and the contraction was more pronounced in construction activities (-
3.8% qoq sa). The drag from fixed capital formation offset the relative strength in
final consumption. Inventories accumulation turned positive again, adding 0.6pp to
headline growth.

3. Net exports' contribution to sequential growth fell back to -0.8pp. Exports

recorded a sequential contraction of -5.4% qoq sa, but slowing from a sharp growth
of 6.1% in Q3. Imports also declined 4.1% due mostly to lower machinery imports
according to the Bank of Korea press release.

4. By industry, manufacturing contracted 2.0% qoq sa, the weakest print since
Q1 2009. While the detailed breakdown by sectors is not yet available, the BOK
press release highlights that the weakness was concentrated in transport equipment
production including autos. In contrast, services continued positive growth at
0.4%, although moderating from 1.1% in the previous quarter.

5. For the full year of 2017, Korea's real GDP grew 3.1%, up from 2.8% growth
during the previous two years (2015-2016). The weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP figure,
however, mechanically lowers our 2018 growth estimate to 2.8%, somewhat below the
central bank's latest forecast of 3.0%. In our view, distortions from unusually
long holidays in Q4 2017 may have accentuated the sequential volatility, but the
underlying momentum in export volumes adjusted for the distortions remains solid.
Latest 20 day exports figure for January supports our view, with daily ex-ships
exports accelerating from December to 14.5% yoy.

So Q4 2017 saw the worst economic environment since Q4 2008...

But stocks were soaring...

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180124_SK2.jpg

And PMIs said "everything was awesome"...

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180124_SK3.jpg

Perhaps most worrisome is that South Korea is often termed 'the canary in the world
trade coalmine' and this downside surprise will do nothing to confirm the 'globally
synchronized growth' narrative.

With The Won soaring to four-year highs...

https://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/20180124_SK5.jpg

How long before South Korea rejoins the currency wars?

Business Finance
Investment Banking & Brokerage Services - NEC

27

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Profile picture for user Zeej
Zeej Jan 24, 2018 9:51 PM Permalink

wow terrible news - looks like we will only get a one or two percent move higher in
the kospi on the day
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Profile picture for user Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga Jan 24, 2018 9:23 PM Permalink

Crypto to the rescue.

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Profile picture for user spacemonkey99
spacemonkey99 Jan 24, 2018 9:18 PM Permalink

I don't see lots of people in the att store these days buying new phones as much.
Maybe everyone figured out they don't need a new phone every 6 months?
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Profile picture for user 83_vf_1100_c
83_vf_1100_c Jan 24, 2018 9:13 PM Permalink

Sorry, my fault. I did not buy a new Samsung phone or Kia. Maybe next year.
Probably not. Maybe they can make up their exports with narrow ass flat face
bitches. Train them to make sammitches and get the price under $5k, I could be
interested.
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Zorba's idea Jan 24, 2018 9:06 PM Permalink

Hey Joe, which way to the "Silk road?"

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Profile picture for user BuddyEffed
BuddyEffed Zorba's idea Jan 24, 2018 9:11 PM Permalink

News along these lines could? -- Davos Participant Unveils What Would "Collapse The
Stock Market

In reply to Hey Joe, which way to the � by Zorba's idea

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Profile picture for user Rikky
Rikky Jan 24, 2018 8:49 PM Permalink

and we keep funding this country by spending money on their products why? not
everyone can 'export to infinity and beyond' i mean someone has to carry the other
side of that trade.
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Profile picture for user Secret Weapon
Secret Weapon Jan 24, 2018 8:46 PM Permalink

I demand that someone keep track of how many times "since (fucking) Lehman" is used
in ZH stories. I want a big fucking graph that confuses the hell out of me. I
want lots of colors and charts that are more like a ink blot test (do you see a
fucking butterfly?) and most of all, with every "since Lehman" story I want a
picture of Brazilian chicks with big tits holding a sign that says "Since Lehman".
Is that too much to ask for?
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Profile picture for user Lost in translation
Lost in translation Secret Weapon Jan 24, 2018 11:53 PM Permalink
Great idea. I move to nominate you.

Who will second?

All in favor, say, �aye.�

Opposed?

In reply to I demand that someone keep� by Secret Weapon

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Profile picture for user small axe
small axe Jan 24, 2018 8:46 PM Permalink

the obvious solution is to move the decimal point and make this data the best since
Lehman based on the highest exports in 33 years.

that's what the BLS and Fed would do. Easy peasy. Instant growth.

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Profile picture for user moonmac
moonmac Jan 24, 2018 8:44 PM Permalink

It's because most of our taxpayer funded Buy American Act projects have now been
completed.
The biggest crock of shit was putting Korea on the list because they bought
everything from China and just remarked the parts and changed the Material Test
Reports to Made in Korea.
They stole tens of billions in orders that American Manufacturers lost.
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Profile picture for user earleflorida
earleflorida Jan 24, 2018 8:37 PM Permalink

next to crash will be Taiwan (Formosa's Chiang Kai-shek)!

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Profile picture for user LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand Jan 24, 2018 8:33 PM Permalink

"First time since Lehman"

A new take on a golden oldie. Crazy to think it's been almost 10 years since
"since Lehman" was a thing.

The US consumer is tapped out. They are going to need helicopter money next, and
I'm guessing that's what is being discussed in Davos, explaining the dollar fall
and the PM gain.
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Profile picture for user Let it Go
Let it Go Jan 24, 2018 8:32 PM Permalink

Sooner or later we expected to see this, we can only buy so much shit.
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Profile picture for user espirit
espirit Let it Go Jan 24, 2018 8:37 PM Permalink

Long ammo?

In reply to Sooner or later we expected� by Let it Go

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Profile picture for user nmewn
nmewn Let it Go Jan 24, 2018 8:36 PM Permalink

Trumps fault! Washing machine armageddon.

In reply to Sooner or later we expected� by Let it Go

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Profile picture for user michigan independant
michigan independant nmewn Jan 24, 2018 9:12 PM Permalink

Saturation points as sideways works only so long my Brother.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=smilXwl07HI

In reply to Trumps fault! Washing� by nmewn

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Profile picture for user espirit
espirit nmewn Jan 24, 2018 8:41 PM Permalink

If they drop them from the sky, we're fvked.

In reply to Trumps fault! Washing� by nmewn

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Profile picture for user SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON Jan 24, 2018 8:31 PM Permalink

Sum Ting Wong.

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Profile picture for user SumTingWongJr
SumTingWongJr SILVERGEDDON Jan 24, 2018 8:53 PM Permalink

WTF ?

In reply to Sum Ting Wong. by SILVERGEDDON

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Profile picture for user SILVERGEDDON
SILVERGEDDON SumTingWongJr Jan 24, 2018 9:22 PM Permalink

I think your dear old dad in the old country is pulling the plug on the world
economy, Junior.

In reply to WTF ? by SumTingWongJr

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Profile picture for user zzzz88
zzzz88 Jan 24, 2018 8:30 PM Permalink

central bank criminals print paper money to steal from the public. but the
judgement date is closer and closer.

after that day, they can not hide anymore. the paper wealth will dispear
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Profile picture for user besnook
besnook Jan 24, 2018 8:29 PM Permalink

what isn't being shipped? and who is it not being shipped to? this article is
worthless without that info.
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Profile picture for user espirit
espirit besnook Jan 24, 2018 8:33 PM Permalink

I hear that SK will make it up at the Olympic concession stand.

They're betting dog will be a favorite...