ANNOUNCE- Review

MENTS AND
REVIEWS

This section of the Cities and Regions as service provision, infrastructure plan-
System Dynamics Self-organizing Systems. ning and investment that are necessary
Review is an eclectic for a successful society.’’(p. XIV).
source of information
Models of Complexity
Chapter 1 lays the conceptual
on items of interest
to the system foundations and develops the key
dynamics community.
Peter M. Allen ideas. The author conceives of self-
Conferences, articles, organization as ‘‘a collective, spatial
books, dissertations, Gordon and Breach Science Publish- response to changing conditions
speeches, software and ers, Amsterdam, 1997, pp. 275, ISBN rather than an evolutionary response
hardware products,
90-5699-071-3. on the part of its constituent
and teaching materials
are mentioned in this individuals’’ (p. 6). His models, then,
space. The purpose of are designed to elicit and explore
the section is to With this book, Peter Allen provides
‘‘the ‘mechanism’ underlying self-
provide summaries to a methodological and philosophical
organization’’ (p. 16)—a succession of
help the system introduction to complexity theory as
dynamics community local instabilities, with fluctuations
applied to urban and regional systems.
keep abreast of recent creating new areas of growth and
progress related to the
As a protagonist of ‘‘self-organizing decline, breaking symmetries, creating
field and to anticipate models’’, he presents a synthesis of structure and organization. These
important future the research work he realised with his emerge from non-linear interactions
events. Submissions teams over a span of about 20 years.
covering a wide range between micro-elements that give rise
Allen stresses the inspiration of Nobel to macroscopic states of organization
of areas and
information of laureate Ilya Prigogine’s eminent work and behaviour, which undergo
possible interest to on emergence and change. Prigogine, bifurcations, i.e. the microscopic
system dynamicists famous for his principle of ‘‘order interactions can lead to different
are encouraged and by fluctuation’’ has also contributed
should be sent to
possible structures at the level of
the foreword to this book, which—so the whole. Methodologically, the
R. Joel Rahn, Faculté
des Sciences de much can be said early on—is a interactions are modelled as an
l’Administration, landmark in the subject at hand. interplay between average behaviour
Université Laval, Ste. Allen gives a fair account of the con- of actors and deviations from it,
Foy, Quebec, G1K 7P4, cepts and mathematics used in his
Canada. Fax: (418)
which drive the system under study
656-2624. E-mail:
models. These capture the relation- through successive instabilities. In
joel.rahn@fsa.ulaval.ca ships in and between communities, this process, new structures can
Or to Pål Davidsen, as well as the dynamic patterns that emerge spontaneously and innovation
Dept. of Information emerge from the pertinent interac- becomes possible.
Science, University of
tions. However, his main objective is The following section comprises
Bergen, HiB, N-5020
Bergen, Norway. ‘‘helping people deal with real prob- three chapters about inter-urban evo-
E-mail: lems, and real decisions’’ (p. 227). The lution. In chapter 2, a model to sim-
davidsen@ifi.uib.no purpose of his models is ‘‘to help pol- ulate the emergence of hierarchy as
icy analysis and decision making in a pattern of settlement is described,
urban and regional planning, energy arising from the interplay of positive
policy and the many other areas of and negative feedbacks between jobs

System Dynamics Review Vol. 17, No. 4, (Winter 2001): 365–371

DOI: 10.1002/sdr.219
Copyright  2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

365
366 System Dynamics Review Volume 17 Number 4 Winter 2001
and people. This model starts out from
Zipf’s Law and Christaller’s concept
of central places, but is enriched with
additional non-linear relationships. It
is shown that the symmetric distribu-
tion produced by traditional models
is rarely the case. More realistic pat-
terns are produced, namely structural
‘‘lock-in’’ (after Brian Arthur), where
sub-optimal structures stabilize and
it becomes difficult to change them
to better ones. Aspects such as path
dependence and the impossibility of
reaching equilibrium in certain con-
stellations are made evident.
In chapter 3, additional functions,
related to commuting and migra-
tion, are introduced into the initial
model. Simulations trigger important
insights, e.g.:
ž The ‘‘natural evolution’’ of a sys-
tem does not necessarily raise its
efficiency.
ž Free markets do not necessarily
lead to optimal economic struc-
tures.
Chapter 4 examines the effects of
interventions, using the example of
lifting trade barriers. The different
evolutionary paths of one and the
same system, generated by the simu-
lations, bring into question any claim
to predict the effects of a policy or
action. The emerging structures are
not determined uniquely by the values
of environmental parameters, but they
depend on the timing and sequenc-
ing of events as well. As an example,
the author refers to the abolition of
the internal frontiers in the European
Union. His conclusion is that this
intervention ‘‘will mark irreversibly
the evolutionary path of European
cities and regions . . .. and it is believed
that this will be, . . ., for the greater
good of the Community as a whole.
However, this has never been shown
clearly by any realistic calculation or
simulation.’’ (p. 77).
The theoretical insights gained in
this whole section are deep, but there
is little evidence of how these can be
successfully applied. Most of the tradi-
tional beliefs in planning are demol-
ished, but up to this point little is
done to restore the potential of plan-
ning. Most likely, the concept of plan-
ning must once again be completely
revised.
An effort to attain more tangi-
ble solutions, by capturing selected
aspects of change in concrete set-
tings, is undertaken in the next section
(chapters 5 to 7). Three case studies
are documented. In the first study, an
attempt to understand the migration
flows between the states of the U.S.A
for the period from 1959 to 1980 was
made, followed by an exploration of
how they might continue until 2000.
By linking economic, demographic
and migration aspects, a more accurate
quantitative estimation of the popula-
tion growth per state was achieved
than by the models in use to date, in
which these aspects are separated.
The second study operated on a
more detailed representation, to cal-
culate the spatial evolution of jobs
and people in nine provinces of
Belgium. The system of dynamic
equations ascertains short-term ‘‘func-
tional’’ flows and long-term flows
of ‘‘evolutionary adjustment’’, the
driving force of these flows being
the differences between the actual

values and the potential values of the
variables (e.g., level of employment,
number of residents). The calcula-
tions reproduce the evolution for a
14-year-period with an average esti-
mation error of less than two percent.
The third case is a simulation
environment to enable comprehensive
explorations of the consequences of
policy options for Senegal, with its
ten regions. The model links repre-
sentations of the economic, ecological
and demographic domains. It is imple-
mented in a software environment,
called SENSIM, making up a fully-
fledged decision support system for
regional planning.
The case studies in this section
show how mechanistic planning app-
roaches, which are still predominant,
can be overcome. In addition, the
models transcend the static view still
adopted in many information systems
and the limitation of physical data
inherent in geographical information
systems. In sum, a path towards sys-
temic planning is outlined and illus-
trated by examples.
The ensuing section (chapters 8 to
10) focuses on the level of intra-urban
evolution, i.e., a scale below that of
the previous chapters. In a general
model, patterns of employment and
residence are traced into the future.
These patterns emerge as a function
of infrastructure measures, such as
the construction of a metro line. A
new feature introduced at this point
is a representation of the value struc-
tures of different types of residents and
their reactions to changing possibili-
ties. In this way, factors such as ‘‘irra-
tional speculations’’, fashions and
herd effects are taken into account.
Review 367
An improved version of the general
model is then applied to the case of
the city of Brussels. The simulations
deliver important lessons, e.g., that
the evolution of a city is quite dif-
ferent depending on whether policy
interventions are taken successively or
simultaneously. A further impressive
result is that the simulations reveal
patterns of development and growth
in highly asymmetrical modes. This
is in opposition to the symmetrical
structures of traffic flows and popu-
lation structures usually produced by
models that rely, for example, on the
principle of maximum entropy.
In the final section (chapters 11
to 13) the author reverts to concep-
tual reflections. First, an integrated
framework for exploring sustainable
development is advocated; the mod-
elling approach outlined in the book
is recommended for the enhancement
of understanding of, and the human
capability to deal with, ecological
challenges. Second, the perspective
on multiscalar modelling opened by
the methodology is expounded and
the conceptual links to other streams
of research (e.g., Forrester’s System
Dynamics and Hillier’s Spatial Syn-
tax Analysis) are specified. Finally,
a résumé of the most important con-
clusions ends in two reflective state-
ments:
ž that the discussion of self-organi-
zation in complex systems should
teach us humility, alerting us to the
limitations of science;
ž that diversity, flexibility and plural-
ism should be encouraged, because
survival is more valuable than effi-
ciency.
368 System Dynamics Review Volume 17 Number 4 Winter 2001
Allen’s book is broad in its perspec-
tive. The author describes a method-
ology of mathematical modelling as
applied to urban and regional systems.
The main purpose of Allen’s models
is grasping the dynamics of change.
These are about non-equilibrium sit-
uations, which occur as a result
of changes at both endogenous and
exogenous levels.
In Allen’s models and simulations
—as in Forrester’s System Dynam-
ics (SD)—the dynamics generated
endogenously appear to be primordial.
The models are built from differen-
tial equations, similar to SD. However,
in contrast with older SD models,
stochastic functions and fluctuations
play a larger role. Furthermore, in
Allen’s models, settlement space is
subject to stronger disaggregation and
the functions of the pertinent zones
can change over time, as a function of
different configurations of the system
as a whole.
Most of the models of urban growth
and development documented in the
literature ignore the spatial struc-
ture and recalibrate a global model
whenever it appears to be neces-
sary. Allen proposes an alternative:
to aggregate individuals with pre-
cisely formalized average behaviours
within interacting zones. The non-
predictable fluctuations and spatial
instabilities, which necessarily occur,
may in return affect the behaviour and
response of the whole system. Given
this feature, the models expounded in
this book exhibit the capability of gen-
erating scenarios of genuinely alter-
native cities and regions. In addition,
they are highly generic, not particular
models which would have too narrow
a spectrum of potentially generated
patterns.
In sum, this book has three eminent
virtues, a theoretical one, a method-
ological one and a practical one. From
a theoretical stance, the principle that
microscopic fluctuations entail macro-
scopic change, as revealed by theo-
ries of non-linear dynamics stemming
from the natural sciences, is shown to
apply as well in the context of social
systems. From a methodological per-
spective, the book documents a major
advancement in the art and science
of modelling— the creation of models
enabling new insights into the mech-
anisms of self-organization in urban
and regional systems.
The treatise is insightful and well
understandable by a general audience.
On the other hand, it is also a plea
for ‘‘self-organizing models’’ and this
makes for some redundancy in the
argument. This reviewer would have
appreciated more discussion about
some methodological aspects instead,
namely issues of validation, but this
is a matter of the interests of different
readers.
Finally, from a practical viewpoint,
Allen’s opus is an important contribu-
tion to the body of knowledge avail-
able to policy makers. Even though
individual actors may only be aware
of the short-term implications of their
actions, policy makers need tools that
show them the collective and long-
term consequences of those actions, to
inform their decision-making. Simu-
lation models, such as the ones pre-
sented in this book, are needed to
make transparent which options are
available and what their implications
 Review 369

are. And, most important, they indi-
cate which choices are most likely to
be unavailable or should not be taken
at all. Ultimately, they are at the core of
the ‘‘laboratories’’ in which desirable
futures can be created and ways to
bring them about developed.
Markus Schwaninger

Call for Nominations for the Jay W. Forrester Award

Nominations are invited for the Jay W. Forrester Award. The Jay Wright
Forrester Award is presented as often as once annually for the best contribution
to the field of system dynamics published in the preceding five years. Papers,
articles, books, research or consulting reports, theses or other written material
that have been published or are in publishable form in the English language
in the original or after translation are eligible for consideration. Winners are
announced at the annual conference of the System Dynamics Society, where
the winner is invited to deliver a talk on the work, which is subsequently
published in the System Dynamics Review.
Nominations may be made by anyone, and should include the citation of the
nominated work including the title, journal or other publication information,
and the year of publication. A short description of the nominated work and its
importance is welcome.

Nominations should be sent to:

Dr. John Morecroft
Chair, Awards Committee
London Business School
Regent’s Park
London NW1 4SA
UK
jmorecroft@london.edu

Call for Nominations for the Dana Meadows Student Paper

Prize 2002

The Dana Meadows Prize is an award of the System Dynamics Society given
annually for the best student paper presented at the annual System Dynamics
Conference. Established in 2001, the prize encourages and recognizes high
quality student work in the field of system dynamics. In addition to an overall
prize winner, several papers may be selected for honorable mention. The prize
is $500 plus free registration and up to $500 toward the cost of the following
year’s System Dynamics Conference.
370 System Dynamics Review Volume 17 Number 4 Winter 2001

To be eligible for the award, authors must be enrolled in a degree program,

though they need not be full-time students. The paper can be co-authored with
other eligible students. If such a co-authored paper is selected as the winner,
the authors will share the prize equally. Papers may also be co-authored with
non-students (such as faculty advisors or consultants) but only if accompanied
by a statement from the advisor that the intellectual content arises from the
student’s own work. In all such cases the student must appear as the first author
and non-students do not receive a share of the prize. Any paper authored by
an eligible student and presented at the conference can be considered for the
award, whether presented in a plenary, parallel, or poster session.
To be considered for the award authors should identify themselves as
eligible students when they submit their papers to the conference. See the
nomination procedure in the footnote below1 or on the Society website at
hwww.systemdynamics.orgi (then click-on the 2002 conference button).
The student award is generously funded by Jane and Allen Boorstein.

A Note About the Prize

The Society’s Dana Meadows prize symbolizes the Society’s commitment to

students in two ways. It brings recognition to the very best student work. It
also honors, in an enduring way, the life and work of Dana Meadows.
Dana Meadows is remembered as an eloquent sustainability advocate and
environmental writer. But she was also, and arguably foremost, a teacher—one
exceptionally committed to her students and their development not only
intellectually but in all ways. Honoring Dana through this award recognizes
her work as an inspiring teacher and mentor of young people, and sets a
standard for what good modeling is. The award will help develop the next
generation of systems thinkers and modelers according to her ideals. Her
unusually high level of integrity in all things extended to high standards for
modeling, for documentation, and for exposing assumptions. The words of two
of her (now distinguished) former students embody the spirit and intention of
the prize:
‘‘On occasions when I might be tempted to cut corners in modeling work
(what modeler hasn’t faced these), envisioning Dana across the table, posing
her gentle but piercing queries, was one of the things that helped keep me
honest.’’
‘‘Dana knew better than most of us that the leverage points for changing a
system often lie far from the symptoms of difficulty. She would understand

1
Self-Nomination Procedure: Add a cover page to your manuscript clearly titled ‘‘A Paper to be Considered for
the Dana Meadows Student Prize.’’ Then add the following text: ‘‘I/We hfull name(s)i wish to submit the attached
paper hfull title of paperi as an entry to the Dana Meadows student prize. I am a student at hfull name of the
institution at which you are studyingi.’’ If your paper is co-authored and your co-author is not a student then
you should add the following sentence (which your co-author must first agree to). ‘‘I hco-author’s full namei
declare that the intellectual content of this paper derives from the student’s work and not mine.’’
 Review 371

that an application of system dynamics to issues apparently not connected

to sustainability, including corporate applications, might very well promote
her goals, not only her goals of creating a sustainable and just society but of
promoting integrity and honesty in our analysis of problems, whatever and
wherever they may be—that is, in the way we create and test our models,
mental and formal.’’