Planning for Optimum Migration at the Source Region

1. Introduction

Migration is permanent or temporary change of residence. The phenomenon of migration is old as the existence of human
on the earth. Human migration is constant and dynamic process in response of regional inequality. Broadly migration in
spatial terms is categorized and studied as International migration where the change of residence is across the boundary of
the nation and another one where the change of boundary is within the national boundary. As per the estimates of United
Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, in 2013 there were 232 million international migrants and 740 million
internal migrants (UNDP,2009) in the world. Existing trends in global economy suggest rise in both types of migrations.
Emerging structural feature in global economy have revelation about labor force in developing economy, which suggests
the labor force in developing is expected to increase from 2.4 billion in 2005 to 3 billion in 2020 and 3.6 billion in 2040 on
other hand in developed countries labor force remain at about 600 million until 2050 (UNSEA,2009).At the same time
employment will stagnate in developing countries (ILO,2009). The overall median age of developed nation is forecasted
to rise to 44 years in 2050 as compared to 35 years for developing nations (UN,2013). Huge gap in labor force is expected
in coming years will trigger the demographic transition and hence the International migration from developing to developed
nation. While large scale Internal migration could be seen in Asia pacific region in form of rural urban migration where
urbanization is ongoing process, small and medium size cities are coming with great pace, but these small cities are not
capable of adjust such large population, so the pattern of mobility in these countries are circulatory, seasonal or temporary.
Similarly, in Indian context as per 2011 census survey the internal migrants have sprung up to 453 million from 159 million
in 1971. Decadal change in migrant population increased more than three times in India after liberalization, privatization
and globalization in 1991.Where decadal increase in male migrant population is quite high, which suggests mobility of the
people for employment, of which circulatory, seasonal or temporary migration is predominant phenomenon, unfortunately
which is not captured efficiently in census or NSSO data in India. The nation where about fifty percent population are
internal migrants plus unaccounted seasonal and cyclic migrants, there is not a single national/state policy about the internal
migrants that link to development of the source area. Detailed consideration of all aspects of internal migration is
overlooked while planning and implementation by local government all over the India, which led to failure in development
planning process.

1.1 Need of the Research

Human migration is one of the most dominating phenomenon of the present world and internal migration in the
third world being used as survival and income raising strategy in the region where inequality persists. Migration have come
as successful povery mitigation strategy in many parts of the third world and positively affected both source and destination.
United Nations have also identifiesd the potential of mobility and urged the nations of third world to channelize and
optimize the potential of migration,especially to third world nation. Which can be done by integrating the mobility or
migration with development plan at micro,meso and micro level of regional and urban planning. As the migration
phenomenon in access may again cause imbalances in the region. So there is need to identify the level of phenomenon
which is optimum. Inorder to do so, the following question arises as research question mentioned in next section.

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 Planning for Optimum Migration at the Source Region

1.2 Research Questions

i. How to determine the level of “optimum migration” in a particular region?

ii. How to identify the socio-economic indicators that affect level of migration and vice-versa?
iii. How the circular migration is adopted as survival and livelihood strategy by the rural inhibitants?
iv. How the socio- economic indicator affect the level of migration and vice versa?
1.3 Aim

To identify the optimum level of out- migration from a particular region and establish a relation with socio-economic
parameter.

1.4 Objectives

i. To define and identify the optimum level of out-migration from a particular region.
ii. To establish the relation between migration parameter and socio-economic parameter.
iii. To identify circular migration in the region and to relate with socio-economic parameter.

1.5 Work Progress

Table 1-1: Proposed Timeline and Work Progress

1st year (2016-17) 2nd year (2017-18) 3rd year (2018-19) 4th year(2019-20)
Description
1st Sem 2nd Sem 3rd Sem 4th Sem 5th Sem 6th Sem 7th Sem 8th Sem

Problem
Identification

Aim, Objectives

Research
Question
Identification of
Area

Literature Study

Secondary data Sampling

Survey Data
Collection Pilot Primary data
Study Collection
Data Entry and
Analysis
Framework
Development
Validation of
Study
Review of
Project
Finalizing and
submission of
the Project

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 Planning for Optimum Migration at the Source Region

2. Case Study Region and Justification for selecting the Region

The eastern states of India remain deprived of development the per capita income in the eastern states like West Bengal,
Bihar, Parts of Uttar Pradesh (specially Bundelkhand area), Odisha state is quite low with respect to states of western India
and southern part of India. These states show least development on the front of the level of Urbanization and
industrialization hence less employment opportunities are there for the different sections of people as a whole. On the front
of population these states specially Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are top states in terms of population density. Along with, not
a single world class city is developed in eastern region after Kolkata which is already saturate. There is clear spatial-socio-
economic-politico negligence towards the region since independence. These states observe high inter-state migration.
Kosi Region of Bihar state (Northern districts of Bihar state) is taken as case study area
1. Bihar state undergoes with second highest inter-state migration in India after Uttar Pradesh. Share of total Out-
Migrants is 16.65/100 in Bihar and 25.57/100 in Uttar Pradesh (Census,2001)
2. NSS64th Round Migration data suggests
i. 15.42 out of 1000 persons were relocated, in which 37 per cent relocated in search of better employment in
Bihar.
ii. 11.44 out of 1000 persons were relocated, in which 26 per cent relocated in search of employment in Uttar
Pradesh.
3. Propensity to Migrate in Bihar is More than Uttar Pradesh for employment as Uttar Pradesh is much larger region
than Bihar state in terms of population and area both.
4. Determinant of Migration is employment; Focus of study is Working age migration.
5. Census of India, 2011 suggests Bihar state have least literacy rate as well as women literacy rate in the India.
More shares of unskilled/distress migration from state
6. The Household remittance to NDP (Net Domestic Product) ratio is nearly 4% in case of Bihar, which is highest
in India; reflecting higher dependency on domestic remittances. (Source: Tumbe Chinmay, 2011: Remittances in
India: Facts & Issues)
Koshi Region is an administrative geographical unit of Bihar state consists of three districts Saharsha Madhepura
and Supaul districts. The divisional headquarter is Saharsha district. The region as a whole is affected by annual
floods and region observes high out migration rates. The extent of out-migration is so that there are special trains
on daily basis for people to move for work to other states like Punjab, Haryana, New Delhi. In the groups who
travel in the trains, the circular and seasonal migrants are evidently observed. Most of the labors in the groups are
construction labors and working in manufacturing units in Delhi and many districts of Punjab. Punjab receives a
great number of agriculture labors from these parts, but agricultural labors numbers are decreasing. These migrants
have their social linkage in metropolitan areas through which they get informed about new job opportunities there.
With the development in technology both in transportation and communication, labors are updated about the job
opportunities and migrate for work in a particular season depends on nature of work. One-way wage differences
give opportunity to get social remittances and earn more income, the other way migration becomes distressed due
to hazardous nature of work at destination, low remittances, troubled journey etc. need to be investigated as the
area show sign of return migration need to be addressed.

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 Planning for Optimum Migration at the Source Region

3. Literature Review

3.1 Defining Migration

Migration can be defined as a move from one migration defining area to another, usually crossing administrative boundaries
made during a given migration individual and involving a change of residence. (UN1993). Migration is a phenomenon of
flow or movement; it may be either permanent or temporary one. Temporary migration may be “flow and return” which is
termed as seasonal migration is or it may be of “stepping stone” type where agricultural labor move from one place to
another and to the third place. Internal Migration is defined as mobility from one migration defining area to another within
the administrative boundary of the region. “Immigration” and “Emigration” are the common words used with International
Migration, while In and Out-migration are the terms used in Internal Migration within a political boundary.

3.2 Migration Theories

Rationality is the core principle of migration theories. From the first law of migration (Ravenstein 1885), to Lewis (1954),
Lee’s (1966) and Harris-Todaro model (Todaro 1976 and 1977 and Harris and Todaro 1970), the rationale of migration
evolves around regional disparities.

3.2.1 Ravenstein’s Laws of Migration (1875-89): Migrants travel short distance and with increasing distance the number
of migrant’s decrease. Migration occurs in a series of waves or steps. Each significant migration stream produces, to a
degree, a counter stream. Urban dwellers are less migratory than rural dwellers. The major causes of migration are
economic.

3.2.2. Lewis Model (1954): Transformation from rural to urban is marked by two massive resource flows: the move of
labour, and a parallel move of food, to support the basic needs of those individuals no longer engaged in farming.

Agricultural surpluses and labor must be transferred in tandem for industrial development to begin. Development is
characterized by an ongoing move of labor and resources from a “traditional sector” in rural area to a “modern sector” in
urban area. Ongoing capital accumulation in the modern sector provides the fuel for sustained transfers. Lewis argued that
the traditional sector is characterized by surplus labor (a situation in which labor can be removed without loss in output).
In principle, this permits, industrial development with unlimited supply of labor, at least until the surplus-labor phase comes
to an end. Theory does not discuss at all the deciding factors behind the move of labors from traditional sector in rural areas
towards the modern sector in urban areas.

3.2.3.The Lee Model (1966): This revised the simple ‘push-pull’ model in two ways. It introduced the idea of intervening
obstacles that need to be overcome before migration takes place. Source and destination are seen as possessing a range of
attributes differently, depending on personal characteristics such as age, sex and marital status.
3.2.4.Harris and Todaro (1970): The main idea of the model is that the formal urban sector pays a high wage to workers.
In contrast to the high wages paid in the formal sector, the informal urban sector and the rural sector have low wages.
Migration in the Harris-Todaro model is then viewed as a response to the significant wage gap that prevails between the
rural and formal urban sector. But, it was perceived, rural people simply migrates towards urban areas because of the actual
wage difference, whatever extra they get in urban area adjusted with the cost of living there than the rural area. Apart from
the above factor, there are so many other economic factors, which push them towards urban area.

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 Planning for Optimum Migration at the Source Region

3.3 Overviews on Theories of Migration

Table 1-2 Overviews of Theories of Migration
Theory Subject of Level of Pet Variable (s) Critique
Analysis Analysis

Neoclassical Determinants of Macro Wage and income Mechanically reduces migration

theory of Migration Micro differentials determinants- exclusion of
Migration Probability of politics and policies
employment Assumes linearity-unable to
explain differential migration,
why people do not move or why
migration ceases before wage
differentials equalize. Ignores
market imperfections
Human capital Micro Wages, economic Overly optimistic view-migration
theory of benefits affected by not always fruitful.
migration individual characteristics
New Micro Wages and Income Limited applicability-difficult to
economics Mezzo distribution (relative isolate the effect of market
theory of deprivation) Institutional imperfections and risk in
Migration failures- credit market. migration decisions from other
Labor market income and employment
deficiencies variables
World system Macro global Structural changes Only applicable at the global
theory and induced by the flow of level.
(historical- international capital
structural processes
approaches)
Dual labor Macro: Labor demand Receiving state bias-excludes
market theory Nation, state Bifurcation of labor push factor.
Mezzo markets Distinction between primary and
FDI secondary sector is usually
State immigration arbitrary which leads to
policies and recruitment instability in empirical estimates.
efforts
Network Perpetuation of Mezzo Networks, diaspora Conceptual framework rather
theory migration and/or than theory. Undermine
directionality of migration
Migration flows Macro Developmental space Purely descriptive.
Systems Unable to account for decline of
Theory migration systems overtime.
Transnational Transnational Transnational social Novelty of the concept.
migration level space Research within this paradigm
usually selects on dependent
variable.
Above table summerizes the theories of migration and subject and level of analysis,variables used and lacuna in adopting
the theories,most of the theories are economical model so,spatial aspect is not covered at all,transnational and international
migration is out of the scope of the study.Spatial or geographical approach is required for the study and analysis of
migration for policy planning

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 Planning for Optimum Migration at the Source Region

3.4 Research and Policies Towards Migration and development

Table: 1-3 Main Phases in Post-WWII Research and Policies Towards Migration and Development

Period Research Community Policy field

Until Development and
1973 migration optimism
1973 to Development and
1990 migration pessimism
(dependency, brain drain)
1990 to Readjustment to more
2001 subtle views under
influence empirical work
(livelihood approaches,
transnationalism)
2001 Boom in research, in
onwards particular on remittances.
Generally positive views,
De-linking of
development with return
Developmentalist views; capital and knowledge transfers by migrants would
help developing countries/regions in development take-off. Development
strongly linked to return.
Growing skepticism; concerns on brain drain; after experiments with return
migration policies focused on integration in receiving countries.
Migration largely out of site in development field, tightening of immigration
policies
Persistent skepticism and near-neglect of the issue; “migration and
development, nobody believes that anymore” (Taylor et al.,1996a:401)
further tightening of immigration policies.
Resurgence of migration and development optimism under influence of
remittance boom and sudden turnaround of views: remittances, brain gain,
diaspora involvement as vital development tools.
Development contribution migration often framed within renewed hopes put
on circular and return migration.

Source: Adapted from De Haas (2007a)

Circular and return migration are area of research in Migration in present time. Research goes in parallel with the
phenomenon and nature of the theme area. In recent years there is increment in circular migration and return migration, the
reason is certainly, the decresed distance between the source and destination with development in technology. Rural-Urban
migration have transformed into the process of commuting. So, it is important to study circular and return migration.

3.5 Legal Aspect of Internal Migration in India

3.5.1 Inter-State Migrant Workmen (Regulation of Employment and conditions of service) Act 1979

The objective of The Inter-State Migration Workmen (Regulation of Employment and conditions of service) Act 1979 is
to regulate the employment of inter-state migrant workmen and to provide for their conditions of service and for matters
connected there with. The act extends its applicability to whole India and applies to:

i. Every establishments in which 5 or more inter-state migrant workmen (whether or not in addition to other
workmen) are employed or who were employed on any day of the preceding twelve months.
ii. To every contractor who employed 5 or more interstate migrant worker (whether or not in addition to other
workmen) on any day of the Preceding twelve months.

Any person who is recruited by or through a contractor in one state under an agreement or other arrangement for
employment in an establishment in another state whether with or without the knowledge of the Principle employer. No
principle employer shall employ inter-state migrant workmen in the establishment unless a certificate of registration is
obtained under this Act.The act is not able to fulfill the migrants cause as it is not applied effectively. After Liberalization,
Privatization era 1991, the nature of inter state migrantion process have changed drastically. Act need to be upgraded.

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 Planning for Optimum Migration at the Source Region

3.6 Spatial Theories in Internal Migration

Above all the studies are in context to International Migration or developed in developed economies,where the
context is quite different from the third world nations. In the third world theories and studies related to internal migration
cannot interpret the factors and determinant of migration wheather it is distressed or volunteerly done.The prospect of
internal migration is different from International Migration, also varies in scale and quality. Issues and determinants are
different. Now in Internal migration, the process is quite different from the developed economy. Shekhar Mukharji’s and
Contribution of Prof. Chapman in formulating is recommendable in formation of three migration theories in context to
developing nation

i. The Mobility Field Theoryof Human Spatial Behaviour (Migration and Circulation) (Mukherji,1975)
ii. Spatial Field Theories of Migration (Mukherji,1971a,1971b,19741992b,1993c)
iii. Theory of Underdevelopment and Poverty-Induced Migration in Developing Countries
(Mukherji,1977a,1981)

The Mobility Field Theory of Human Spatial Behaviour: Mobility field theory states, in both verbal and mathematical
form, that :

1) At the level of individual,the movement behaviour of a person located at place i,towards another place j,is a linear
function of both the person’s specific need-stress-attribute set and his perception of place utility distances between that pair
of places (origin-destination) and

2) At the level of aggregate system, the need-stress-attribute structure of individuals in a population,their percieved place
utility distances between pairs of places, and the resultant types of mobility behaviour,are interdependent parts of the
mobility system, called mobility field,within which any natural or induced change in one part generates corresponding
changes in other parts.

Mobility Field Theory thus indicates the causal relationships between the people’s needs, as filterated through place utility
considerations, and resultant mobility behaviour that arises from attempting to satisfy those needs.

The Spatial Field Theory of Migration was first formulated in 1971 (Mukherji,1971a, and 1971b) and repeatedly tested
and upgraded in the next two decades (Mukherji,1974;1979d and 1993c) The theoretical model states and proves that in
any country,volume and nature of migration between various regions will be determined by differences in socio-economic
attributes in those regions. As in spatial economic differences between various regions in acountry,correspondingly will be
migration flows between them; and vice-versa. Each of the matrics can be generated with help of other.Both the matrics of
spatial behaviour and of spatial structure,together will make a system or a Field,called spatial Field and changes in one
sub-system ,within the the system will bring corresponding changes in other. Both the matrics and sub-systems will be
interdependent,causally linked,integrated, and isomorphic (one to one relationship)(Mukherji,1993c:250-280).Specific
pattern (s) of migration behaviour will be causally linked with specific kind(s) of socio-economic attributes
or,characteristics which co-exist and belong to a particular field within the overall general Saptial Field,excluding other
attributes,which do not belong to that particular “field”.

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 Planning for Optimum Migration at the Source Region

4. Tools and Techniques for Testing Field Theory

Canonical Model is the most appropriate technique for testing and verifying the Field Theory, as both focus upon testing
isomorphism and degree of interdependences behaviour and attribute matrics,with reference to the same subjects.

4.1. Canonical Model: Linking Spatial Flow (Migration) and Spatial Structure of Economy (Socio-economic System
of Regions)

Canonical Model was developed by Hotelling (1936: 321-377),describes the maximum correlation between linear functions
of two sets of variables describing the same subject(s).It can be used to find the statistical relationships between any two
data matrics of behaviour and attributes describing, for example,nations,or states, or regions,cities or individuals. It can be
applicable in assessing the interlinks between violence,conflict and war between the nations of the world in the one hand
and socio-economic-political distances between them,on the other, as done in Social Field Theory (Rummel,1965: 185-
197). Canonical Model was applied to find statistical relationship between mobility-migration behaviour of the individuals
in one hand and place utility distances between origin and destinations-cum-the needs-stresses-socio economic attributes
of movers on other side done in Mobility Field Theory (Mukherji,1975:1-363)

4.2. Canonical Model: Conceptual and Analytical Design of the Spatial Field Theory

Variables M1M2….Mm Variables S1S2….SQ Variables I1I2….IR

Regions Regions Regions

1 1 1
2 2 2
. . .
. = . + .
N N N
1 1 1
MIGRATION SOCIOECONOMIC INVESTMENT
MATRIX MATRIX MATRIX

∑βmMm = ∑αqsq + ∑ αRIR

Figure 1 Conceptual and Analytical Design of the Spatial Field Theory: Canonical Model

The nature of canonical correlation analysis probably can be best explained through the algebraic model of a set of
simultaneous equations (cooley and Lohanes,1962; Mukherji et.al.:1981:1-35;1983a):

U1 =b1y1 +b2y2+ b3y3 =a1x1 +a2x2 +a3x3 +a4x4 =V1

U2 = b1*y1 +b2*y2+ b3*y3 =a1*x1 +a2*x2 +a3*x3 +a4*x4 =V2

U3 = b1**y1 +b2**y2+ b3**y3 =a1**x1 +a2**x2 +a3**x3 +a4**x4 =V3

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 Planning for Optimum Migration at the Source Region

Where b(betas) and a alphas are coefficients like regression coefficients,weighing Y and X sets of variables,respectively
in two data matrics. Here Y’s represent three behaviour variables (i.e. migration behaviour) and X’s represent four attribute
variable (i.e. socio-economic structure of the region).The asterisks indicate the coefficient assume different values in three
equations.Canonical correlation analysis,then simply attemptsto maximize the correlations between the pairs of weighted
combinations of X’s and Y’s.Within each equation (1 to 3),if the weighted combination of Y’s (migration behaviour) on
the left hand side of the equation is termed as the new vector U,then the weighted combination of X’s (socio-economic
structure) on the righthand side can be termed as the new vector V.These new pairs are called Canonical variates.

4.3 Identification of Key Variables for Canonical Analysis of districts

Table: 1-4 List of key Variables for Canonical analysis of districts

CULT Per cent cultivators POPGRO Population growth rate

AGL Per cent agricultural Labourers POPDENS Population Density
LIVES Per cent livestock workers URBANISA Per cent urbanised
MINS Per cent workers in mining GLITERA General literacy
HH Per cent workers in household industry PERWOR Per cent workers
MNF Per cent workers in manufacturing PERFAREA Per cent forest area
CONS Per cent workers in construction PERNSA Per cent net sown area
TC Per cent workers in trade and VINMIGM Volume of in-migration, males
commerce
TRANS Per cent workers in transport VOMIGM Volume of out-migration,males
PCBDEP Per capita bank deposit INMIGRTM In-migration rate,male
PCBCRED Per capita bank credit OMIGRTM Out-migration rate,males
PCBCAGI Per capita bank credit to agriculture INTRADMA Intra-district migration,males
PCBCSSI Per capita bank credit to small industry TOTMIGM Total migration,males
PCBCIND Per capita bank credit to industry INTRADMR Intra-district migration rate,males

5. Conclusion

Along with the “canonical model” other tools like Regression Model and Factor Analysis is performed for finding the
linkage between Migration and socio-economic variables at district level,urban level and state level to test the Field
Theory.Vector Auto Regression Model (VAR) have come to the focus of regional modelling with a first application by
Carlino and DeFina in year 1999. A panel VAR approach for Internal Migration Modelling is recent approach to study the
regional labor market dynamics.Panel VAR approcah for Internal Migration Modelling is the subject of further research.

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 Planning for Optimum Migration at the Source Region

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